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12.06.23- Rumblings in Reserves
David Haggith

Will they swamp the boat as all investors are now on one side?

“No bears left,” is the worrying refrain that one headline uses to cover the stock market, which slid for a second day in a row. That mean’s everyone is on the same side of the boat, and we all know how severely the market can tip when the insanity has risen to such an extent that everyone is on the same side of the boat and then bad news hits the market and sends bets in a mad rush the other way. Read More

12.05.23- Bidenomics in Action
James Howard Kunstler

If you’re troubled at all about the state of our country, and even your own small role in it, you might be asking yourself whether the people running things have any idea what they’re doing. Some of these doings happen in the metaphysical realm of finance, for instance America’s national debt ($34-trillion and going up like mad), and the death of the US dollar, along with the bonds that underwrite it. Or the game of hide-the-salami with the repo and reverse repo markets played between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury to give the broken banking system the appearance of stability when it is actually in deepening ruin. Read More

12.04.23- Only a 50% Fall From Here
Jim Quinn

Home prices had historically tracked general inflation over time, even during the Great Depression when deflation took over. All this was true until the Wall Street/Federal Reserve purposefully created home price bubble of the early 2000’s. They created that bubble to take over for the previous bubble they created – the Dot.com bubble. Creating fiat/debt out of thin air and doling it out like candy has this effect. Read More

12.02.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: My Memories of Henry...  
A different Interpretation of the Man

Paul Craig Roberts

Henry Kissinger at 100 years of age left the world he temporarily altered for the better after watching the neoconservatives in the Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden regimes wipe out his accomplishments.

Kissinger and President Nixon were men of peace.  They inherited a disastrous war–Vietnam–that they had no hand in making.  President John F. Kennedy intended to stop the war before it could get started, which was one of the reasons he was assassinated by the CIA, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secret Service.  The Soviet Threat had to be resisted even at the cost of President Kennedy’s life and the trauma inflicted on what was still in those days a free nation. Read More

12.01.23- We Are Witnessing An Avalanche Of Branch Closings As U.S. Banks
Desperately Try To Stay Alive

Michael Snyder

If you do things the right way, in the long run you will get positive results.  But if you do things the wrong way, in the long run you will get negative results.  Our banks are the beating heart of our entire economy, and unfortunately they have been doing things the wrong way for a long time.  As a result, the entire system is being greatly shaken.  Loans are starting to go delinquent at a frightening pace, we have seen endless “banking glitches” in recent months, tens of thousands of banking employees have already been laid off, and U.S. banks are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of unrealized losses. Read More

11.30.23- As the US Treasury Runs Out of Creditors, Its Options Dwindle
Jonathan Newman

Are the chickens coming home to roost for the US Treasury? As Ryan McMaken noted in a recent Mises Wire article, the United States is in a debt spiral and there’s no easy way out.

The problem is multifaceted, but the origin is profligate government spending. While it typically spikes during crises, spending is increasing at an alarming rate even outside of crisis periods. And tax revenues are not keeping up, which means ever-deepening deficits. Government expenditures spiked during the 2020 crisis, but even ignoring those spikes, annual spending has increased by about $1.6 trillion since 2019, while tax receipts have only increased by about $600 billion. Read More

11.29.23- The Entire Banking System is Shaking
Michael Snyder

Why are big banks suddenly rushing to shut down so many local branches all over the nation?  As I have discussed in previous articles, U.S. banks are currently sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in unrealized losses.  When financial institutions get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money and they start cutting costs.  In addition to laying off workers, our banks have been cutting costs by permanently closing local branches.  For example, between November 12th and November 18th, the sixth largest bank in the United States initiated filings to close 19 more local branches… Read More

11.28.23- The Financial System
Has Reached The End

Egon von Greyerz

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window.

Again, remember von Mises words: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”

History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return. Read More

11.27.23- At 94, Home Depot Co-Founder Explains Why He’s ‘Never Been More Frightened
for This Country

Leah Barkoukis

Bernie Marcus, the co-founder of Home Depot, explained earlier this month why he’s “never been more frightened for this country” in his life. At 94 years old, that’s saying a lot.

“If you look at what’s going on around you, you know that we’re falling apart. Our economy is falling apart,”he told an audience in Palm Beach, Florida during an event for Job Creators Network, which he founded 10 years ago. Read More

11.25.23- The Crash Will Be Spectacular
Jim Quinn

“Interest on the federal debt is now so immense that it’s consuming 40% of all personal income taxes… If federal finances continue on their current path, we are only a few years from the entirety of income taxes being needed to finance the debt…”

The government collects $2.6 trillion of individual taxes at the point of a gun and threat of prison. Meanwhile they still operate at an annual deficit of $2 trillion. And this is before interest on the national debt starts to really skyrocket. Our Troll Secretary of the Treasury Yellen had the opportunity to lock in trillions of our national debt for 30 years at 2% rates, but purposely kept rolling it on a short-term basis. Read More

11.24.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How the Democratic Party Faked an American Insurrection
Robert Bridge

January 6 may have been a lot of things to many people, but another Boston Tea Party it most definitely was not.

Last week, more than 40,000 hours of Jan. 6 Capitol Police security footage was released in the public domain that once and for all blew a hole in the pro-Trump ‘violent insurrection’ narrative so dear to the Democrats. Read More

11.23.23- Biden’s Economic Dance Macabre: Mortgage Purchase Demand Down -1% From Previous Week And Down -20% From Previous Year (Worst Home Sales Data Since The 1970s!)
Anthony B. Sanders

Biden’s economic Dance Macabre! Or Biden’s Mortgage Macabre! Mortgage purchase demand actually fell -1% from the previous week (WoW) and is down -20% from the previous year (YoY). 

Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 17, 2023. Read More

11.22.23- Brutal Banking Crisis To Launch Gold And Silver
Dave Kranzler

Liquidity in the primary dealer Treasury market is drying up.  Deposit outflows from the big banks continue unabated. The outflows at the small, regional banks haveg abated but some banks continue to draw on the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program, which hits a new high almost weekly. The facility matures in March but it’s doubtful the debtor banks will be in a position pay back the loans. Just like the “temporary” repo program that began in September 2019, the BTFP will continue to hit ATH’s and the Fed will extend the maturity. This is de facto QE. Read More

11.21.23- Thankgiving Message:
The Blob and Its Mobs

James Howard Kunstler

“If Israel wanted to do a genocide of Gazans, they’d have razed it decades ago. There are many Israeli Arabs who enjoy more rights than any Arab in an Arab country. The urge to do blanket ethnic genocide is a one-way street, something only barbarians and demons crave.” —Peachy Keenan

In normal times we anticipate the splendid gluttony of the American Thanksgiving, the fellowship of family and friends, with gratitude and remembrance of overcoming ordeals past. This year, though, we are a bit preoccupied with ordeals to come, and that nip in the November air conjures rumors of approaching hardship and cruelties we have no idea how we might overcome. These are not normal times. Read More

11.20.23- Yes, Americans Are Struggling Financially, Just Ask These Folks
Autumn Spredemann

More Americans are struggling to navigate the housing crisis and save money as credit card debt hits a record high.

Oscar Taylor is scrambling to cover household expenses for the first time in his adult life.

"It has gotten so dismal that my wife is planning on looking for work after the new year," said Mr. Taylor, owner of Barrett Rifles in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Read More

11.18.23- Weekend Rant: Washington’s Fiscal Doomsday Machine
David Stockman

Here’s one that will make your hair stand on end: The US Treasury closed the books on FY 2023, bringing the four-year cumulative deficit to $9.0 trillion!

That’s right. During the last 1,461 days (FY 2020 thru FY 2023), Uncle Sam has generated $6.2 billion of red ink each and every day including weekends, holidays and snow-days. For anyone keeping score at home, that’s $4.2 million of red ink per minute. Read More

11.17.23- Entire Financial System On Knife's Edge
Alasdair MacLeod

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11.16.23- The Interest Rate Shock Will Blow Up the Government’s Ponzi Game
Thorsten Polleit

In the international fixed-income markets, interest rates are rising, and the decades-long trend of declining bond yields has undoubtedly been broken. On August 2, 2022, the ten-year United States Treasury yield was 0.5 percent; on October 9, 2023, it had risen to 4.8 percent. Long-term interest rates in Europe, Asia, and Latin America have also risen sharply. The key reason for the rise in capital market interest rates is the central banks’ interest rate hikes—a direct response to sky-high inflation (caused by the central banks themselves, following a huge increase in the quantity of money). Read More

11.15.23- Wall Street’s Dishonest Accounting
Jim Rickards

This article is not a lesson on banking (I don’t want to put you to sleep!).

But it’s important to understand some basic banking rules in order to realize why the current banking crisis, which began in March, isn’t over. Let’s start with what’s called mark-to-market accounting. It’s critical when it comes to determining asset prices and stock prices in particular. Read More

11.14.23- Another U.S. Credit Downgrade
Craig Hemke

Over the past few years, the once-impeccable credit rating of U.S. sovereign debt has been downgraded by several prominent ratings agencies. Only Moody's stood firm against economic reality and maintained their U.S. credit rating at AAA. However, as of late last week, even this firm has been forced to succumb to the reality of life at the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. Read More

11.13.23- If The Economy Is So Great, Why Are Tax Revenues So Weak?
Ryan McMaken

Federal deficits continue to spiral upward, but deficits aren't just a function of federal spending. Deficits aren't necessary if tax revenues increase to match spending. But that's certainly not where we find ourselves in 2023. Rather, federal spending is rising even as federal revenues have fallen, year over year, for ten of the last twelve months. Moreover, on a quarterly basis, federal receipts have been falling—quarter-to-quarter—since the third quarter of 2022.

It's long been known that there's a pretty strong correlation between falling tax revenues and worsening economic conditions. Yet, even as tax revenues are falling, we're being repeatedly told that the American economy is in great shape and there's no recession in sightRead More

11.11.23- Why the United States Could Be Heading Straight into Another Great Depression
Peter Reagan

First it was the COVID economic panic that started in March of 2020.

Then it was Biden’s disastrous mishandling of the military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Almost immediately following that disaster, the Biden administration went on a multi-trillion-dollar deficit spending spree that dramatically worsened inflation. Read More

11.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Washington Hawks Helped Create the New “Axis of Evil”
Connor O’Keeffe

In 2002, President George W. Bush cited the now famous “axis of evil”—Iraq, Iran, and North Korea—as he tried to get the American people to look beyond those responsible for the 9/11 attacks and greenlight a global military campaign to “rid the world of the evil-doers.”

The result was the $8 trillion global war on terror that continues to this day. Read More

11.09.23- The fuse on America's debt bomb
just got shorter

  E.J. Antoni

The latest numbers out of the Treasury Department speak volumes about how quickly things are spiraling out of control

If you thought it was scary when the Treasury Department recently dropped a financial bomb, announcing the deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion, please sit down before you read on. The Treasury just released new numbers projecting borrowing of $1.6 trillion in just the first half of fiscal year 2024. Read More

11.08.23- Another Bank Bites the Dust!
James Rickards

Another bank bites the dust!

Citizens Bank was a small bank in Iowa with about $66 million in assets. Its loan portfolio consisted largely of commercial and industrial loans.

Well, this past Friday the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that Citizens Bank had failed due to significant hidden loan losses totaling about $15 million. Read More

11.07.23- A "Sucker Breakdown" Fools Investors… Again!
Greg Guenthner

The same old story that’s hoodwinked investors since the dawn of time… 

You’ve heard of a sucker rally

But what about a sucker breakdown?

We might have just witnessed one asinvestors jettisoned their stocks last week just before a huge snapback move that began with frantic short-covering rallies — and could end with an epic melt-up into the holidays.

Here’s how it all started… Read More

11.06.23- It Appears That We Have A Major Problem With The Banks
Michael Snyder

In recent weeks there have been numerous high profile bank “glitches”, accounts are being shut down without warning at a staggering rate all over the nation, and more institutions continue to get into very serious financial trouble.  For a while, I was ignoring some of these reports because I thought they were isolated issues.  But when you step back and take a bigger picture view of things, it really does appear that we have a major problem with the banks. Read More

11.04.23- What the 'Great Trucking Recession' is warning us about the economy
Salena Zito

JOHNSTOWN, Pennsylvania — Two months ago, 30,000 truckers at Yellow lost their jobs when one of the nation’s oldest and largest trucking companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Last week, Convoy, the digital freight broker that was supposed to reinvent the wheel and disrupt the truckingindustry in a positive way, also abruptly shuttered its doors. Read More

11.03.23- The Future for Fiat
Alasdair Macleod

The day of reckoning for unproductive credit is in sight. With G7 national finances spiralling out of control, debt traps are being sprung on all of them, with the sole exception of Germany.

Malinvestments of the last fifty years are being exposed by the rise in interest rates, increases which are driven by a combination of declining faith in the value of major currencies and contracting bank credit. The rise in interest rates is becoming unstoppable. Read More

11.02.23- This Would Mean Catastrophe For Financial System
Bob Moriarty

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11.01.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Anthony Fauci-run lab in MONTANA experimented with coronavirus strain shipped in from Wuhan a year BEFORE
Covid pandemic began

Alexa Lardieri

US taxpayer money was used to experiment with coronaviruses from the Chinese lab thought to be the source of the Covid pandemic more than a year before the global outbreak, an investigation has found.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH), under Dr Anthony Fauci’s leadership, infected 12 Egyptian fruit bats with a ‘SARS-like’ virus called WIV1 at a lab in Montana in 2018, just 15 minutes away from the Maryland presidential retreat Camp David. Read More

10.31.23- 9 Reasons Why Gold Will Soon Replace Treasuries As The Ultimate Store-Of-Value Asset
Nick Giambruno

In the age of fiat currency, the distinct concepts of saving and investing have become conflated and confused.Saving is producing more than you consume and then setting it the difference aside.

Investing is allocating capital to a productive business to create more wealth. Investing has more risk—and potential reward—than saving.

Today, however, what most people think of as saving is actually investing. Read More

10.30.23- Catastrophe bonds clobber government paper with 16.5% returns – 
Richard (Rick) Mills

It must suck to be a bond investor these days.

Bond markets everywhere have been rattled by a trifecta of high interest rates, angst over government deficits, and hawkish central bankers, who refuse to back down from their fight with inflation.

Yields on 30-year Treasuries earlier this month climbed above 5% for the first time since 2007. With prices moving in the opposite direction as bond yields, investors are rattled. Read More

10.28.23- One Mistake Before Armageddon
Paul Craig Roberts

Each of us faces each day threats to our health, happiness, and life. Overarching it all, we collectively face death from nuclear weapons.

The development of nuclear weapons was a human stupidity. They cannot be used, but their existence threatens the life of the planet.  So why have them?  Accident, emotional response, loss of reason are all human faults that can come into play at any time.  

During the 20th century Cold War these dangers were underlined by the Cuban Missile Crisis.  President Nixon led the way to sanity with arms control agreements with the Soviet Union and his opening to China. Presidents Carter and Reagan kept the momentum going for reduced tensions and peaceful coexistence.  Read More

10.27.23- The Deeper Dive: As Bonds Go Critical,
I Go Critical on Yellen's Treasury Defense

David Haggith

And Janet Yellen came so close to saying something smart when she said something incredibly vacuous.

I’ve been spending a lot of time in the past two weeks talking about the bust that is happening in bonds because the US bond market has the power to break the entire world when it goes down. It is also where all the action that matters most is happening right now in such a pronounced that it pressed the US treasurer today to come up with a defense for what is happening in bonds that praises her boss’s deficit-funded economy and keeps her pals at the Fed out of it. Read More

10.26.23-And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Who Is Mike Johnson
Mr Reagan

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10.25.23- We Haven’t Seen a Subprime Borrower Meltdown of This Magnitude Since
the Last Financial Crisis

Michael Snyder

It is happening again.  All over America, borrowers are getting behind on their payments.  In particular, subprime borrowers are having a very difficult time paying the bills.  Does that ring a bell?  That should, because the last time we witnessed anything like this was during the last financial crisis.  When things start to go bad, those at the bottom of the economic food chain feel it first, and that is why the numbers that have been coming out lately are so alarming. Read More

10.24.23- The Vigilantes are Back!
David Haggith

With the vigilantes having raised bond yields above 5%, the Big Bond Bust went BANG! today and blew a lot of money out of other markets in one big shot.

The Vigilantes are Back!

With the vigilantes having raised bond yields above 5%, the Big Bond Bust went BANG! today and blew a lot of money out of other markets in one big shot. I wrote the following over the weekend in my “Deeper Dive,” and this morning we already got to see it play out in spectacular style: (I’ll put in boldface the parts that happened in a blow-your-face-off way today.) Read More

10.23.23- Debt, Currency Debasement & War—
The Timeless Pillars of Failure

Matthew Piepenburg

Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well…not so great any more.

Debt Destroys Nations

Debt, once it passes the Rubicon from extreme to just plain madness, destroys nations. Read More

10.21.23- Gold Forecast: Expert Predicts $10,000 Gold and $300 Silver
AG Thorson

Gold trading above $10,000 and silver near $300 is where President of Financial Sense Wealth Management, James Puplava sees prices later this decade, according to his Big Picture Update titled: Unsustainable.

At the turn of the century, when gold was below $300, he correctly predicted the 10-year bull run in precious metals, expecting gold to reach new all-time highs above $1000. In hindsight, he admits his call was conservative as gold nearly achieved $2000. The lesson to investors is simple: when Jim speaks, you'd be wise to listen. Read More

10.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different:Something Wicked This Way Comes…
Charles Dickens

I took a two-week break from the world, or at least tried to. It was no use. Regardless of where we were, man’s horrific intent and bad news encroached on our attempted serenity.

I keep thinking about the analogy of a chimpanzee with a loaded machine gun sitting on a fallen jungle tree with an empty bottle of vodka at its feet.

What could possibly go wrong?  Read More

30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes past 5%, 30-year mortgage rates hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge
Wolf Richter

Bond Bloodbath, Housing Market in Deep-Freeze, as delusions fade.

Today it’s the 30-year Treasury yield that pierced the 5% line. It currently trades at 5.02%, the highest since August 2007.

The first of the long-term yields to spike through the 5% line was the unloved 20-year Treasury yield on October 3; it currently trades at 5.25%. Read More

10.18.23- Bonds Bust!
David Haggith

The Big Bond Bust brewed into a huge storm today with the US 10Yr making a face-ripping rise above 4.8% to its highest level in 17 years and fastest climb in years. Read More

10.17.23- Is This The End Of Naked Short Selling?
James Stafford

American investors have been taken for a trillion-dollar ride by naked short sellers, in what could turn out to be the biggest financial regulatory scandal in North American history. 

While what is now an all-out war on naked short sellers intensifies, there is a new flashpoint on the front line–a potentially devastating ruling targeting those who are alleged to make illegal naked short selling possible: The Facilitators: bankers and brokers. Read More

"We Could Be Looking At A War Economy That Nobody Today Has Ever Experienced Before"
Benjamin Picton

It Never Rains, But It Pours

Brent crude futures closed up more than 5% on Friday, peeking back above U$90/bbl for the first time in almost a fortnight. US 10y yields were down more than 8bps at 4.61% and the long bond was down more than 10bps to 4.75%. That equates to a loss of 19bp for the 10y, and 21bps for 30y treasuries in just one week. Even equities appear to have gotten the risk-off message late in the week. The S&P500 closed down 22 points with losses being led by the high beta information technology sector and consumer discretionary, while defensives and energy performed well. Read More

10.14.23- Geopolitics Stagflation and Gold
Rick Mills

The crisis playing out in the Middle East has profound strategic and humanitarian implications, but what does it mean for investors, particularly those holding or considering gold and other precious metals that typically attract safe-haven demand?

The horrifying attacks on Israel by the Hamas terrorist organization are less than a week old but already we see an uptick in the price of gold compared to a lackluster 2023 performance. Read More

10.13.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Friday The 13th
Benjamin Picton

In Western superstition, Friday the 13th is considered a particularly inauspicious day. The date is so entwined with ideas of calamity and outright evil that it has inspired its own slasher film franchise.

Turning to markets first, the inauspicious event was epic bond volatility following the release of the September CPI inflation report for the USA. Headline inflation was 0.4% MoM versus estimates of 0.3%, and the year-on-year figure was 3.7% versus expectations of 3.6%. Core inflation was in-line with expectations at 0.3% in the month. Read More

10.12.23- Bond Valuations Are Cheap.
Lance Roberts

Bond valuations are cheap.

Psychology in markets is always fascinating. In February 2009, I wrote “8 Reasons For A Bull Market.” While in hindsight, it is easy to see that was the right call, overall, psychology was highly negative at the time. The arguments for lower stock prices and a continued economic recession were rampant. Most importantly, investor psychology was extremely bearish, and stock valuations were dramatically cheaper. It is the opposite today, with investors shunning cheap bond valuations in favor of overvalued equities. Read More

10.11.23- Hamas’ Attack on Israel Is Puzzling
Paul Craig Roberts

I am being asked about the Israeli-Palestine conflict, which seems to be taking attention away from the Ukraine-Russia conflict.  People, by which I mean people who pay attention, are wondering why the Palestinians would attack Israel like this as it provides Netanyahu with an excuse to grab the remaining bits of Palestine and destroy the Gaza strip, thus disposing of  the two-state solution by conquest. Who can blame Israel after Palestinians killed Israelis and took hostages? Read More

10.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What's Really Going on in Palestine
Clint Russell

Last post on this topic to answer all the questions I've been asked over and over today.

1. It is stunning to me how little most people know about the treatment of the Palestinian people. Over 2 million people packed into 140 square miles in Gaza. Robbed of their land and housing over and over. We're talking real David VS Goliath here. David has been taking sh*t for years. They are very desperate.  Read More

 

10.09.23- Market Insanity
David Haggith

The idiots on Wall St should definitely be in stocks and bonds ... made of wood and iron.

The bursting of the bond bubble that I’ve been writing about has now reached a level that Bloomberg says is one of the biggest bond busts in history:

The bond-market sell-off that's sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.  Read More

10.07.23- Reaping What You Sow:
The American Regime In Chaos

Tho Bishop

The word “chaos” has been the buzzword this week in Washington, largely directed toward Rep. Matt Gaetz’s successful coup against former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and the resulting void in Republican leadership. In an era where most outcomes in Washington are predictable, best illustrated by yet another kick-the-can-down-the-road continuing resolution on spending passed the preceding weekend, the first successful use of a motion to vacate the speakership in American history greatly shocked the system. Read More

10.06.23- We Are Witnessing One Of The Greatest Financial Market Crashes In History Right Now
Michael Snyder

History is starting to repeat itself.  In 2008, bond prices crashed before stock prices did.  Here in 2023, bond prices are crashing again.  In fact, we are currently witnessing one of the greatest financial crashes in U.S. history at this moment.  Of course most Americans have absolutely no idea that this is happening.  Most Americans don’t know anything about the bond crash that is causing a tremendous amount of fear in the financial community right now, and that is because the big news networks aren’t talking about it too much.  But it is serious.  Since the peak of the market, 10 year bonds are down 46 percent and 30 year bonds are down 53 percent… Read More

10.05.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Largest EV Charging Station In World Powered By Diesel-Powered Generators
Kevin Killough

The Harris Ranch Tesla Supercharger station is an impressive beast. With 98 charging bays, the facility in Coalinga, California, is the largest charging station in the world. But to provide that kind of power takes something solar can’t provide — diesel generators.

In 2017, Tesla CEO said that all Superchargers in the automaker’s network were being converted to solar. 

“Over time, almost all will disconnect from the electricity grid,” Musk posted on X, formally known as Twitter. Read More

10.04.23- "Why So Much Sudden Uncertainty,
And At What Point Do You Sell And Run Screaming?"

Michael Every

Yesterday saw chaos in markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared 12bp to 4.80%, the highest since June 2007. We were 4.85% this morning, so up 55bp in a month and 97bp in 2023: another month like that and it will hit a high not seen since 2001. Bonds were of course smashed up and down the curve and all around the world, although many markets missed late US selling, which will no doubt carry over into today’s session. Stocks were, unsurprisingly, lower. FX saw EUR sub 1.05 (to think it was 1.12 this summer!) and JPY hit 150, rally, then fade, as the former ‘Mr Yen’ stated it could go to 155 before the BOJ really act, but if it does and the Fed don’t, it could hit 130 – a 25 big figure trading range(!) Oil rose through the session, though at $91 Brent is well below its recent high. Read More

10.03.23- If This Were a Stock… You’d Think “GAME OVER.”
Graham Summers

Everyone is applauding the short-term deal to keep the government open for another 45 days.

Well, everyone except the bond market, that is.

The bond market, specifically, the market in U.S. sovereign bonds or Treasuries is the single most important market in the world. Everyone focuses on stocks, because stocks are “exciting” and the best investment for obtaining wealth. Read More

10.02.23- The Silent Depression and Current Economic Realities
Doug Casey

International Man: Wall Street Silver, a financial analyst on Twitter, highlights that during the Great Depression, the average home cost 3x the average income. Today, it costs 8x as much.

In the 1930s, the average car cost about 46% of a year’s earnings. Today, they eat up 85% of the annual average wage.

Rent, which previously claimed just 16% of yearly income, now demands a staggering 42%. Read More

09.30.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Is the Money in Your Checking Account Yours or the Bank's?
Jonathan Newman

When Silicon Valley Bank and other banks failed earlier this year, the debate over the sustainability of fractional reserve banking resurfaced. Under fractional reserve banking, banks keep only a fraction of customers’ deposits in reserve. The difference is bank credit, such as government debt, mortgages, business loans, and many other kinds of loans.

This practice leaves the bank open to a run, in which panicky depositors attempt to withdraw their funds from the bank en masse but the bank doesn’t have the cash on hand. The following graph gives an idea of the extent of the mismatch between deposits and reserves. Read More

09.29.23- Billionaire issues dire warning
for US economy

Russia Today

The country’s growth is at risk of falling to zero, Ray Dalio claims

A US debt crisis is looming as the American economy is facing a “risky” fiscal situation, according to the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio.

Dalio’s warning comes as the country’s national debt topped $33 trillion this month. US lawmakers are currently negotiating a spending bill before the October 1 deadline. Read More

09.28.23- Here’s How Much the Imminent Government Shutdown Will Cost You
Peter Reagan

Here’s something you don’t want to hear from your political leaders, especially in the federal government:

“Our financial ship is sinking.”

Yet that’s exactly how Tennessee Representative Tim Burchett recently described the situation.

He made this statement because the U.S. government can’t reach a resolution that would keep its own operations funded. Read More

09.27.23- Toward the Brink
 Jim Rickards

Should market participants be concerned about the possible government shutdown at midnight on Sept. 30?

It’s too soon to answer that question definitively, but it’s not too soon for investors to take some defensive action.

If it does happen, it’ll be different from those that have gone before. Let’s break it all down… Read More

09.26.23- JPM's Dimon Warns: World Not Ready For Fed's Stagflationary Response What does Jamie Dimon know that we don't?

Having tamped down his prior warnings of economic "hurricanes", JPMorgan CEO warned, in an interview with the Times of India, that the world faces a worst-case scenario threat of stagflation and is unprepared for central bankers' response (higher rates) to that outcome.

Addressing the risk of a hard- or soft-landing, Dimon highlights the fact that "no one knows. There is a range of outcomes..." Read More

09.25.23- Robots From China Don't Strike
Anders Corr

The United Auto Workers (UAW) went on strike on Sept. 15. The strike affected the “big three” in Detroit—General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, maker of the Jeep. The union wants to increase average labor costs from $65 per hour, including benefits, which is already above market rates. Nonunionized Tesla, for example, pays “just” $45 per hour in labor, considering the cost of benefits.

The UAW's demands would roughly double labor costs and, according to management, make the companies unviable. Where will the workers go when the automakers go bankrupt, further mechanize their assembly lines, or move yet more production to China? Read More

09.23.23- Where are we in the debt cycle?
Richard (Rick) Mills

The debt cycle is something many North Americans have become all too familiar with.

These days, it is common for homeowners to take out mortgages in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, creating pressure to make the hefty monthly payments. When mortgage rates climb, as they have done recently, those holding variable-rate mortgages can suddenly find themselves on the hook for hundreds a month more. Fixed-rate mortgage holders face a similar nasty surprise when forced to renew at a higher rate. Read More

09.22.23- 10 Red Flags Warn of
a Looming Recession

Al Lewis

Leading economic indicators, tightening credit and a dicey global economy portend a decline

Economists have practically sounded the all-clear on a looming recession, but plenty of signs are still flashing red.

Clearly, economists were wrong earlier this year when they forecast an economic contraction that has yet to manifest. Could they be wrong now? Read More

09.21.23- Six Reasons Why Corporate Profits Will Fall 50%
Charles Hugh Smith

Should stock valuations track this same decline in profits, it's entirely reasonable to expect the stock market to lose 2/3 of its valuation premium. 

All Six of the reasons corporate profits will decline by half are common sense:

1. Reversion to the mean: profits that are double the historical average as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are highly likely not to be a sustainable New Normal. The far more likely track is a reversion to the historical average, which is about 50% below corporate profits' current 12% of GDP. Permanently elevated plateausof stock valuations and corporate profits are both compelling chimera. Read More

09.20.23- Will The Fed 'Cause' A Mini-Crash?
Avi Gilburt

That was quite a week we just had in the market. In fact, if you are a news follower, you are probably confused as hell.

Let’s start with the Wednesday announcement of the higher-than-expected inflation numbers. Of course, most everyone assumed the market would drop on such news. Well, as Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise.” Read More

09.19.23- U.S. stocks are lower as investors await outcome of Fed's meeting
Peter Nurse

U.S. stocks are falling as investors readied for the highly-anticipated two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting.

At 11:12 ET (15:12 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 248 points or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.7% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.8%.

Fed’s two-day meeting starts

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to start its latest meeting today, and it is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. Read More

09.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Tucker Carlson Ep. 23
Tucker Carlson

View Video

09.16.23- The Permanent Crisis Economy
Nicole Gelinas

We’re still living in 2008.

Fifteen years after the 2008 global financial and economic meltdown, many say that America has recovered well. Gross domestic product, through the first quarter of 2023, was 28 percent higher than just before the crisis, buoyed by personal consumption, which has soared 35 percent. As of May, the economy boasted 17.6 million more private-sector jobs than prior to its 2007 precrisis peak, a 15 percent gain. After accounting for inflation, average weekly earnings are up 9 percent, helping to break the stagnation in pay that lasted for decades before 2008. Read More

09.15.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Planet Earth Just One ‘False Flag’ Or ‘Accident’ Away From A Nightmare
Stefan Stanford

Taking a look at 3 new stories over at Zero Hedge, one might think we’re closing in on WW3. With the most recent one reporting Russia’s Navy Port At Sevastopol Is On Fire After Massive Ukraine Missile Attack, after a major overnight and early morning attack on one of Russia’s key Black Sea naval ports, with multiple social media videos showing massive blazes at the Sevastopol shipyard, leaving numerous people dead and at least 24 people injured, the two other’s were titled “NATO Baltic War Games Simulate Article 5 Collective Defense War With Russia” and “NATO Prepares For Biggest Military Exercise Since Cold War, And Close To Russia,” leaving the world one accident away from a nightmare. Read More

09.14.23- The World Financial System is Collapsing Faster, and Its Taking the
World Down with It.

Gregory Mannarino

View Video

09.13.23- The crashing office market will deepen the economic 'doom loop' for America's cities, economist says
Jennifer Sor

Some of America's largest cities could be on the verge of an economic "doom loop" thanks to the crashing office real estate market, according to one Columbia economist.

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a real estate and finance professor at the Columbia School of Business, has sounded the alarm for months on large to mid-sized US cities. That's thanks to work-for-home trends, which have battered the commercial real estate market in hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Denver. Read More

09.12.23- Mountains and Mountains of Debt
Are Crashing

David Haggith

An avalanche of debt defaults is already on the move with a lot more ready to collapse behind it.

Defaults on loans with banks that are not in the top-100 for size have already risen to the highest record ever!

Even if the Fed stops hiking interest rates (which is unlikely with recent hints that inflation may be back on the rise), the Fed still plans to continue quantitative tightening (QT) for a long time, just as it believed it could do in 2019 … and failed at spectacularly. Read More

09.11.23- Who Will Buy Baby Boomers’ McMansions?
Rick Ackerman

Can the Wall Street Journal‘s headline writers save America’s juiced-up economy from going bust?  They are certainly trying. Check out their lede in Friday’s editions: The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over.  Fancy that!  With mortgage rates headed toward 8%, many readers must have done a double-take when they read this seeming howler. Your editor wondered why the copy desk had not punctuated the headline with three or four exclamation points, lest the story fail to goad potential buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines into action. Read More

09.09.23- Welcome To The Real Estate Industry Apocalypse
Michael Snyder

Higher interest rates are absolutely strangling the real estate industry, and there is no relief in sight.  The sudden shift from a very low interest rate environment to a much higher interest rate environment has paralyzed sales.  As I have discussed previously, very few homeowners that are currently locked into a mortgage at a low interest rate want to sell, because buying a home to replace the one that they are selling would mean taking on a mortgage at a much higher rate of interest.  And millions of potential home buyers have been chased out of the market because of the exceedingly high mortgage payments that they would be facing if they pulled the trigger on a purchase right now. Read More

09.08.23- Say’s Law Says It All
Alasdair Macleod

As the world descends into a much-heralded recession, the surprise will be that interest rates will continue to rise as economic activity contracts. This is not what the economic establishment expects.

This article puts the outlook in the context of classical economic theory, when it was the principles behind the division of labour which went unchallenged. Adopting the theme of Say’s law, this article permits a forecast with a high degree of certainly that far from a recession leading to lower prices, lower interest rates, and therefore investor heaven, it will lead to higher prices, higher interest rates, budget deficits soaring out of control, and liquidation of the dollar by over-exposed foreign holders. Read More

09.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 77% of US youth unqualified for military service
Gabriel Honrada

US military recruitment crisis rooted in obesity, drug addiction, mental health issues and low educational attainmentThe US military faces an unprecedented rebe a significant factor in declining US military recruitment rates. “Woke” refers to awareness and attention to critical societal facts and issues, especially related to race, gender and social justice. Read More

09.06.23- Where’s the Recession?
James Rickards

No sooner had the BRICS Summit in South Africa ended on Aug. 24 that Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell took the podium at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 25.

What did Powell say, and what are the implications for investors and global markets? Let’s review… Read More

09.05.23- Rising GDP + Rising Yields = A Major Sign Of "Uh-Oh"
Matthew Piepenburg

Have you heard the good news?

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates a 5.9% growth in real GDP for Q3 2023. In nominal terms, we can even boast of an 8.9% surge.

What fantastic news! Growth! Productivity!

This must mean we can all breath a collective sigh of relief as Powell continues his valiant war against inflation as GDP rises, right? Read More

09.04.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Ron Paul for President!
Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

Many of us don’t know whom to support for President. Brain-dead Biden is of course impossible. Donald Trump is better but he supports many bad policies, such as Covid vaccines and high tariffs, and his term as President was almost a total disaster. Robert Kennedy, Jr. is still better, but he is unsound on economics. There is only one person in the United States today who has the intellectual substance, homespun eloquence, charm, and charisma to galvanize the American public, who are tired of politics as usual and want a change. We know he has this ability because he has demonstrated it already in past campaigns, and he is 100% right on all issues. I refer of course to the heroic Dr. Ron Paul. Read More

09.02.23- Bitcoin And The Coming Energy Conundrum
Mark E. Jeftovic

Assessing The Potential Of Bitcoin Mining In Energy Monetization

If trade is considered the lifeblood of an economy, then surely energy would mark the essence of life itself.

bitcoin

Without energy, trade has no foundation to stand upon. Read More

09.01.23- Bidenomics Has Failed
In The Worst Way Possible

Peter Reagan

Corporate media headlines like Biden’s Economy Is the Best Ever or The Bidenomics Success Story leave one big question unanswered…

Who is better off? (Lest we forget, “the economy” isn’t a citizen.)

Are you better off than you were thirty months, two and a half years ago? Read More

08.31.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Ten OBVIOUS Lessons Every Intelligent Person Should Have Learned From COVID 1.0
Mike Adams

Truly, you’d have to be an oblivious idiot at this point to think the government’s COVID orders are intended to benefit the people. You’d also have to be an idiot to think that N95 masks stop COVID transmission, that social distancing works, or that COVID vaccines prevent infections and transmission.

Yet, astonishingly, these are things that oblivious idiots still believe. These people also tend to believe that Joe Biden is the “most popular president ever,” that Big Pharma is run by angels who seek to help humanity, and that mainstream doctors are driven by medical science evidence rather than profit motives. Read More

08.30.23- 8 Signs That We Are Right On The Verge Of A Major Credit Card Debt Crisis
Michael Snyder

We aren’t quite there yet, but an enormous credit card debt crisis is definitely brewing.  Americans are becoming increasingly dependent on their credit cards to make ends meet from month to month, the percentage of us that are carrying balances from month to month is growing, and the average rate of interest on such balances has risen above 20 percent.  If you can possibly avoid it, do not carry credit card balances from month to month, because that will strangle you financially.  Unfortunately, our young people are never taught this in school, and so many of them get into deep financial trouble when they become adults.  And once you get into deep financial trouble, it can take many years to get out of it. Read More

08.29.23- Nvidia’s Dog-Day Disaster
Greg Guenthner

Summer trading is sometimes a slow, tedious affair — especially toward the end of August.

Luckily, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) earnings gave investors something to talk about late last week.

The semiconductor superstar was one of the only interesting mega-cap earnings announcements left on the Q2 docket. And since most of the chip stocks lost their first-half momentum weeks ago, the buy-and-hold crowd was hoping strong results would help encourage a decent bounce heading into fall trading. Read More

08.28.23- The AI 'Investment' SCAM
Karl Denninger 

Anyone paying attention to NVDA?

Yes, they have nice chips. I have one of their graphics cards in my desktop.  Nice board.  So was its predecessor, also theirs.

That's not the point. Read More

08.28.23- The AI 'Investment' SCAM
Karl Denninger 

Anyone paying attention to NVDA?

Yes, they have nice chips. I have one of their graphics cards in my desktop.  Nice board.  So was its predecessor, also theirs.

That's not the point. Read More

08.26.23- America’s Propped-Up Economy Is on Its Last Legs
Peter Reagan

If there ever was an “uh-oh” moment for the U.S. economy, it’s coming very soon.

The consumer spending spree that powered the economy since the pandemic panic is coming to an end.

At the beginning of the pandemic panic, American households hunkered down, slashed spending and deposited their stimmie checks. Read More

08.25.23- The U.S. Tech-Dollar... Is Silicon Valley A Destructive Option or A Good Dollar Crutch?
Christopher LaBorde

The Faith Drivers of the US Dollar

The strength of the dollar comes from its users and holders, but their choice to use and hold it comes from their faith in its value. That faith has traditionally been driven by the warm feelings people get around the pillars of the dollar, such as: US politics, the US economy, the US people, the might of the US military to keep peace, its world reserve currency status with the international banking system and its petro-dollar status. Read More

08.24.23- How the US Economy Will Crack, and More on the BRICS Big Bust
David Haggith

Xi did not even show up to his own keynote speech, and everyone downplayed Brazil's notion of a BRICS currency ... even Brazil!

First let’s talk about the US economy because financial writers are still misunderstanding where the true fault lines are, even as the pressures keep building for “the big one” — the big financial shakedown. Then we’ll talk about how even Brazil just took the idea it floated of a new BRICS currency completely off the table. You can forget about it. The BRICS just told the world it’s not happening. Read More

08.23.23- BRIC by BRIC
James Rickards

It’s finally here…

Today, Aug. 22, is a date I’ve been warning readers about for months.

It’s the date when a great monetary shock is set to hit the global financial system.

That’s because the BRICS nations are now meeting in South Africa, where they’ll take steps to create a new gold-backed currency as a dollar alternative. Read More

08.22.23- The Earthquake Starts Tomorrow
James Rickards

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit is scheduled to begin tomorrow, Aug. 22 in South Africa, which will run through the 24th.

As I’ve been warning, this meeting is the most significant development in international finance in the last 50 years. It has the potential to displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency from a standing start in just a few years. Read More

08.21.23- "I Have A Very Bad Feeling
About This..."

Charles Hugh Smith

Unexpected things tend to happen when the real source of problems are papered over and then suddenly reality intrudes.

What an interesting juncture we've reached. We're constantly assured all is well with what matters--the economy--as the all-powerful Federal Reserve has managed not just the hoped-for "soft landing" but a resurgence of growth: yowza, no recession. Read More

08.19.23- A Bumpy Ride
James Howard Kunstler

“This voter is not convinced by virtues or statistics. He is convinced by dreams, visions, stories and jokes.” — Curtis Yarvin

Draw back from the scene and understand that the sheer heaping-up of procedural legal bullshit in the various sham court cases against candidate Donald Trump is largely an attempt to confound, mystify, and preoccupy the public while the great scaffold of our national life collapses. The news — both legacy and alt — will be dominated day after day by analyses of every move and counter-move through endless thickets of courtroom minutiae while the US economy crashes and burns, residual wealth is confiscated, and the American social order turns into something like fiery goo. Read More

08.18.23- Brace Yourselves, Because What They Have Planned Is Going To Absolutely Devastate The U.S. Economy
Michael Snyder

Do you remember what happened in 2008?  Many people believe that another historic financial disaster is coming and that it will absolutely devastate the U.S. economy.  Earlier this week, I wrote about an investor named Michael Burry that has actually bet 1.6 billion dollars that the stock market is going to crash.  He made all the right moves in 2008, and he fully intends to be proven right once again in 2023.  Of course current conditions definitely resemble 2008 in so many ways.  The residential housing market is so dead right now, and commercial real estate prices are plummeting at a very frightening pace.  Read More

08.17.23- Watch Out – Argentina’s Leading Presidential Candidate Vows To Shut Down “Thieving” Central Bank
Tyler Durden

After sending local capital markets into a tailspin and triggering a currency devaluation with his shock win in Sunday's country's presidential primary, Argentina's leading presidential candidate Javier Milei - a self-described anarcho-capitalist - added to the shock factor on Wednesday when he pledged to close the nation’s central bank while saying he would make every effort to avoid a default on the country’s sovereign debt if he wins the October vote. Read More

08.16.23- BRICS vs the U.S. Dollar: An Inevitable Showdown?
Michael Snyder

The Dollar’s Decline Opens the Door for Rivals

With all eyes on BRICS as it prepares for a meeting at the end of August that could see new members joining, the question is looming in the back of future-minded investors: will BRICS develop its own currency in a bid to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world standard?

The possibility of BRICS launching its own currency is a real one, with prominent member states China and Russia each expressing their desire to move away from the dollar. Russia in particular is leading the charge for BRICS to develop currency.  Read More

08.15.23- Fitch Warns Big Banks
Face Downgrades

Tyler Durden

At the start of August, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government's top credit rating. Last week, Moody's cut the credit ratings of small and midsized US banks because of higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses, and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans. Now, another week, another possible downgrade, this time of major banks.

Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe told CNBC another round of turmoil could be nearing for the banking industry. He said the ratings agency is mulling over sweeping rating downgrades for dozens of banks, including ones as big as JPMorgan Chase.  Read More

08.14.23- Why Rome Collapsed:
Lessons For the Present

Charles Hugh Smith

No nation clinging to the current "waste is growth / landfill economy" will survive the emergent global polycrisis.  

Identifying why the western Roman Empire collapsed in 476 AD has been a parlor game for at least two centuries, since Edward Gibbon published his monumental The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Gibbon concluded Christianity had a major role in weakening the Empire, a view few today share. Read More

08.12.23- Why the United States Lost Its AAA Credit Rating
Jon Militimore

Lawmakers in Washington seem oblivious to the threat of America’s mounting public debt. For the second time in its history, the United States saw its AAA rating on long-term debt downgraded by a credit rating firm.

Fitch Ratings said the downgrade of the U.S., which is now rated AA+, “reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and AAA-rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.” Read More

08.11.23- Beware the Great Unwind
Alasdair Macleod

This chart strongly suggests that US Treasury bond yields, widely regarded as the risk-free yardstick against which all other credit is measured are going significantly higher, not stabilising close to current levels before going lower as commonly believed. I conclude that US Treasury bond yields could easily double, and the political class will be powerless to stop them going even higher. The implications for interest rates globally are that they will be forced considerably higher as well. Read More

08.10.23- The Wile E. Coyote Economy
Brian Maher

As youth the Road Runner cartoon show amused us vastly.

The Road Runner character would deceive his murderous pursuer — Wile E. Coyote — over a cliff edge.

Yet this Coyote figure would continue his chase for incredible seconds… disobeying gravity’s iron laws… unaware of his precarious peril.

At this point he’d glance groundward — and receive an updated intelligence report. Read More

08.09.23- The Greater Financial Crisis of 2024
James Rickards

You’re probably aware that Fitch has downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA+. It was big news last week.

That’s nothing to cheer about, though it’s not likely to have much impact on the markets in the short run. It’s more of a long-term problem.

But it’s certainly another straw in the wind showing that the U.S. is on a non-sustainable fiscal course that can only end in default, hyperinflation or protracted depression-level growth. Read More

08.08.23- Normies Awake!
James Howard Kunstler

“The West can’t do diplomacy in general, it can’t run its cities or countries except into the ground, its high-tech projects fail almost as a rule, its infrastructure is crumbling, its economies are crumbling, and all public policies seem to have a civilizational suicide as a final goal.” — Gaius Baltar

So-called Normies might be musing, this month of approved mental languor, whether the mighty efforts to suppress news of all kinds, about everything, have concealed the true tendings of our wayward country — leading them to wonder whether it is even possible to be a Normie in such an abnormal time and place. Read More

08.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The truth about Ukraine is beginning to leak out and Americans ought to be furious about the lies they’ve been told and are still being told
Leo Hohmann

After pouring more than $100 billion in taxpayer dollars into the black hole known as Ukraine, the neocon war hawks in Washington and London will have a lot of explaining to do when Ukraine implodes into chaos. Poland will likely move in to take a spoil in the western provinces, settling an old score against the Ukrainians, while Russia will take parts of the east. Below, Martin Armstrong explains the ugly history that makes Ukraine the cesspool of corruption that it is today — history of which Americans and Brits are almost completely ignorant. (Notes in parentheses are mine). Read More

08.05.23- UAW demands 46% pay hike in talks with Detroit Three automakers
Breana Noble and Kalea Hall

The United Auto Workers is seeking a 46% wage increase over four years as a part of its negotiations with the Detroit Three automakers, according to a page of the union's written demands.

The proposal would be the largest pay increase in recent memory. The proposal from the Detroit-based union that represents approximately 150,000 workers making Chevrolets, Fords, Jeeps and more calls for a 20% general wage increase upon ratification of a new contract "to offset severe impact of inflation" over the past few years, according to the write-up obtained by The Detroit News. Read More

08.04.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Stop It Already!
Brian Maher

“I am most disturbed by the pro-Russia stance held by Mr. Rickards and others in your organization.”

Thus moans reader Bill C.

Bill’s lament arises in response to a recent reckoning.

In that reckoning Mr. Rickards claimed Russia is winning the Ukrainian war. Read More

08.03.23- This Is Why U.S. Economic Activity Seems So “Slow” This Summer
Michael Snyder

Do things seem “slow” to you this summer?  If so, you are definitely not alone.  In recent weeks, my wife and I have heard from so many people that are saying that activity at their businesses or organizations has been really slow lately.  In other words, less money has been coming in than usual.  This has caused a lot of confusion, because when these people turn on their televisions they are told that the U.S. economy is doing just fine.  Of course that is not actually true, but these media reports are still causing a tremendous amount of confusion.  A lot of people out there are just very frustrated because things are so slow for their businesses or organizations right now while the overall economy is supposedly buzzing along at a really good pace. Read More

08.02.23- How Far Will Commercial Real Estate Values Have to Drop to Start Making Sense?
John McNellis

Some asset classes, notably industrial and self-storage, have scarcely declined at all, while others, having flown too close to the sun, have plunged into the sea.

Stick real estate in the time-out corner, and 2023 is looking far better than the experts prophesied six months ago*. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent, layoffs are dropping, and economic growth has been so strong—and inflation so stubborn—that Fed watchers are predicting two more rounds of rate hikes. Now, the ballyhooed recession may slowly wash out like a false trail. Read More

08.01.23- Investors Think They’re Bulletproof
Greg Guenthner

The bulls are running wild.

Remember when we discussed the possibility that the red-hot tech leaders were finally running out of gas?

Well, we just witnessed a dramatic mid-air refueling on the heels of last week’s tame Fed meeting, positive earnings reactions, and strong economic data. Just when it looked as if the highest-flying names would finally take a break, frantic buyers stepped in to blast these stocks back into the stratosphere. Read More

07.31.23- Trucking Giant Yellow
Ceases Operations

Todd Maiden

Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. ceased all operations at 12 p.m. Sunday, according to a notice on the gates at its terminals.

Separate internal documents showed the procedures for closing the facilities as well as “talking points” to be used when informing union employees not to show up for their shifts. The documents indicated the company plans to issue a public statement Monday updating “the state of the company and the operation.” Read More

Interview with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
James O'Keefe

View Video

07.28.23- Stocks: Undervalued or Overvalued?
Brian Maher

The stock market has been up and away this year.

Rather, a relative handful of technology stocks have been up and away this year.

The major indexes are hitched to these wagon-pullers… and that is largely why these indexes have excelled this year. Read More

07.27.23- Bud Light To Lay Off Hundreds Of Employees In Wake Of Disastrous Pro-Trans Marketing
Tyler Durden

Bud Light's self-destruction after its botched TikTok promotion with clownish, male-to-female trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney, resulting in what Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett recently said is a permanent loss of nearly 25% of its business and Mexican lager Modelo Especial securing the spot as America's top-selling beer, has likely forced Anheuser-Busch InBev to lay off hundreds of workers. Read More

07.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: RFK Jr. Maintains Highest Favorability Rating Among Presidential Candidates
in New Poll

Jeff Louderback

Days after a House hearing on censorship that saw Democrats attempt to prevent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from testifying, a new Harvard-Harris poll showed that he has a higher favorability rating than any other presidential candidate.

Mr. Kennedy has a net favorable rating of 47 percent and a net unfavorable mark of 26 percent according to the survey, which was released on July 23 and conducted from July 19 to July 20 among 2,068 registered voters. Read More

07.25.23- 3 Big Questions for a Roaring Market
Greg Guenthner

I’m on the road early this week.

We packed the van for an extended weekend to visit family before summer slips away for good. In just a few short weeks, the kids will be back in school, while the financial pundits will start shouting about end-of-year S&P targets.

We should enjoy the quiet calm while we still can. Read More

07.24.23- Yellow loses attempt to stop strike
Todd Maiden

Company says in plea to judge it will be forced to file for bankruptcy

The U.S. District Court for the District of Kansas ruled Friday against less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp.’s request for an injunction, which would have kept its Teamsters employees from engaging in a work stoppage.

In her decision, Senior Judge Julie Robinson denied a motion for a temporary restraining order and injunction. Read More

07.22.23- It's Mourning In America
Charles Hugh Smith

Now that America has been transformed from a high-trust social order into a low-trust social order, there's no going back.

The birth of financialization in the early 1980s was morning in America because finance-- the collateralization of previously low-risk assets and the resulting explosion of credit and leverage--gooses demand and asset valuations.Read More

07.21.23- ESG Is Dying Its Inevitable Death
Lance Roberts

ESG scoring and mandates remain a subject we have contested since it sprang to life in 2020. The push of “woke activism” on, and by companies, to meet nebulous or artificial standards has led to various bad outcomes.

ESG refers to the Environmental, Social, and Governance risk theoretically embedded in a business. However, while ESG investing is about taking these risks into account in investment decisions, these are all the things NOT on a company’s balance sheet or earnings statements. Such is the inherent problem. Read More

07.20.23- Is the Gold Standard Coming Back?
Doug Casey on the BRICS Gold-Backed Currency

Doug Casey

International Man: There have long been rumors that Russia or China would create a gold-backed currency, but there was never a formal acknowledgment… until recently.

The Russian government recently stated:

“The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold.” Read More

07.19.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Mexico files complaint over Texas’ floating barriers on the Rio Grande
The Associated Press

Mexico’s top diplomat said Friday her country has sent a diplomatic note to the U.S. government expressing concern that Texas’ deployment of floating barriers on the Rio Grande may violate 1944 and 1970 treaties on boundaries and water. 

Foreign Relations Secretary Alicia Bárcena said Mexico will send an inspection team to the Rio Grande to see whether any of the barrier extends into Mexico’s side of the border river. Read More

07.18.23- Globalists Suggest ‘Finance Shock’ And Climate Controls To Launch Their Great Reset
Brandon Smith

At the end of June government leaders and think-tank power brokers from around the world met at the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris. Participants include United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga. Read More

07.17.23- Code Red
Ted Butler

As a result of data released over the past week (mostly, the last 3 days), it seems clear to me that we may be facing a clear market emergency in COMEX silver futures. I am trying hard not to be alarmist, but what I see alarms the heck out of me – to the point that I believe we are at the most critical juncture in COMEX silver since the peak of prices back in early 1980, when all sorts of emergency measures were enacted to deal with the Hunt Brothers that are debated to this day, 43 years later. Read More

07.15.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: These Are The World's Biggest
Arms Importers

Tyler Durden

Qatar was the world’s biggest arms importer in 2022, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Last year, Statista's Anna Fleck reportsQatar's imports of weapons accounted for 10.4 percent of all global imports, even outpacing India (8.9 percent) and Ukraine (8.3 percent), which has been regularly supported with arms deliveries by an international alliance since the start of the Russian invasion last year. Read More

07.14.23- Why Is the Stock Market So Strong?
Brian Maher

Since last March the Federal Reserve has been elevating its target rate — with fantastic abandon.

Across that same frame it has been chewing into its balance sheet.

Meantime, the bond market is putting out the loudest recession warnings since 1982. Read More

07.13.23- The Mainstream Media Is Not Telling You The Truth About Inflation
Michael Snyder

Inflation is going down!  Isn’t that wonderful?  When many less educated Americans hear this news, they will think that prices are going down.  But that is not true at all.  In fact, prices are still going up.  They are just going up at a slower rate than they were before.  According to the federal government, the Consumer Price Index was only 3 percent higher in June 2023 than it was in June 2022.  That sounds like pretty good news, but it is imperative to realize that the formula used for the Consumer Price Index has literally been changed dozens of times over the decades.  If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would still be well into the double digits. Read More

07.12.23- Without Inflation, the Status Quo Collapses; With Hot Inflation, It Also Collapses
Charles Hugh Smith

Eventually policy-makers turn the dials to 11 and nothing happens. 

Many others have explained why inflation is part-and-parcel of the status quo.In the simplest terms, where's why inflation is essential: 

1. Our economy and financial system are totally dependent on the expansion of credit/debt. Banks make money by issuing new loans, and financiers make money by buying and selling debt and instruments that leverage debt. Consumers can only buy big-ticket items with credit.   Read More

07.11.23- I Wasn’t Wrong About Oil
Greg Guenthner

The big, bad tech stocks have dominated the market during the first half of 2023.

The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services Sector SPDR (XLC) have gained more than 36% year-to-date.

Individual 2023 performances are even more impressive. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) has rocketed 190%. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) has risen 140%. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — a consumer discretionary name that acts like a tech stock — is up more than 120%. Read More

07.08.23- All Dreams End: The Collapse of Keynesian Economics
Charles Hugh Smith

Now that debt is rising faster than "growth," and "growth" is dependent on speculative credit-asset bubbles, the collapse of the Keynesian dream looms large.  

Unbeknownst to economists, the Keynesian bedrock of modern economics--using financial repression and government spending funded by debt to manage the business cycle of growth and recession--is an artifact of a century of expansive cheap energy and virtuous demographics. Read More

07.07.23- Who Wins and Who Loses in a Deep Global Recession?
Charles Hugh Smith

Globalization and financialization have fueled the global economy for 40 years. Now they're in the decline phase of the S-Curve.  

Does anyone benefit from a deep, prolonged global recession? Perhaps not in absolute terms, but in relative terms we can say some will suffer less than others. We can also say that some will strengthen their relative positions vis a vis competitors and others will lose ground / weaken, with potentially fatal consequences if the recession leads to systemic instability, i.e. phase change or tipping pointRead More

07.06.23- Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Has Biggest Six-Month Spike Ever.
It’s just the Beginning

Wolf Richter

And it’s structural. Variable-rate CRE mortgages and much higher rates just speed up the process.

After blowing through the pandemic with no more than a squiggle, the delinquency rate of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) backed by office properties jumped to 4.5% by loan balance in June, up from 1.6% just six months ago in December 2022, according to Trepp, which tracks and analyses CMBS. Read More

07.05.23- Beware a Chinese ‘dollar avalanche’
Robin Wigglesworth

Companies have been hoarding greenbacks

Brad Setser’s paper(opens a new window) on how China has stashed away almost $3tn worth of unofficial currency reserves in local commercial banks and other parastatal entities has naturally generated a lot of attention. 

After all, these “shadow reserves(opens a new window)” are larger than the formal reserves of Japan, the world’s second-largest reserve holder according to IMF data. It’s almost three times larger than the assets of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Read More

07.04.23- Happy Insurrection Day!
Michael Maharrey

Today we celebrate insurrection.

No. I don’t mean the fake Jan. 6, 2021, “insurrection.” I’m talking about the bonafide insurrection staged by American colonists against the British government.

We call July 4 “Independence Day.” But the British called it an act of rebellion. Read More

07.03.23- 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts a consumer recession — and warns companies face more earnings pain
Theron Mohamed

  • Michael Burry predicted a consumer recession and more pressure on company profits.

  • People are saving less, borrowing more, and have spent what they saved during the pandemic, he said.

  • "The Big Short" investor expects those trends to weigh on consumer spending and corporate results. Read More

07.01.23- A Steady Controlled Demolition
of U.S. Credit Markets
Danielle DiMartino Booth

View Video

06.30.23- The Only Man Worth a Darn
Brian Maher

Today we abandon our focus upon the Ukraine situation. We abandon our focus upon Wall Street. We abandon our focus upon politics, mercifully.

Yet we focus — indirectly — upon them all.

That is because today we distinguish between individual man… and collective man.

For they are not the same thing. Read More

06.29.23- The Coming Crisis
Darryl Robert Schoon

“Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected.” – Senator John C. Danforth (MO-R), April 22, 1992

The debate on raising the debt limit was akin to deciding whether a patient should continue a fatal regimen of steroids, i.e., excessive money printing. Since the 2008 financial crisis, only excessive money printing—free credit to banks at 0.0 to 0.25 % interest and unprecedented infusions of cash (over four trillion dollars in quantitative easing)—has kept the US economy alive.  Read More

06.28.23- Ford Plans to Lay Off at Least 1,000 Contract and Salaried Workers Cuts expected to significantly affect engineers in North America
Nora Eckert

WSJ explains why many white-collar workers are getting the pink slip before other employees. Illustration: Adele Morgan

Ford Motor F 1.01%increase; green up pointing triangle plans to lay off at least 1,000 salaried employees and contract workers in North America, people familiar with the matter said, the automaker’s latest effort to defray the heavy cost of investing in electric cars. Read More

06.27.23- US Slips Into a Recession Based on Biden Criteria
Andrew Moran

So much for the US economy being "strong as hell."

Last year, the US economy slipped into a technical recession. But the White House was quick to alter the long-standing definition – back-to-back quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth – garnering support from members of the mainstream press, charged with telling the public, “We have always been at war with Eastasia.” With the latest economic data coming in, it turns out that the current administration’s strategy might backfire on President Joe Biden and lend credence to those who think the US is already in a recession. Read More

06.26.23- The Familiar Death-Dance: Investors Are 'Out To Lunch' As Macro Cracks Widen
Egon von Greyerz

In this twenty-minute conversation with Investor Talk’s Jan Kneist, Matterhorn Asset Management founding partner, Egon von Greyerzsoberly assesses the current calm (fantasy) before an inevitable storm driven by rising rates and investor indifference to otherwise ominous cracks in the global economy. Read More

06.24.23- Fortress America—The Only Alternative To Fiscal Ruin
David Stockman

That didn’t take long. Twelve days after Biden signed the ballyhooed legislation unfreezing the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, the public debt crossed the $32 trillion mark on June 16th. And that was only nine months after it crossed the $31 trillion level in October 2022.

For that matter, by this date in 2033 the public debt is guaranteed to be above $55 trillion. The $1.5 trillion of alleged “cuts” in the McCarthy-Biden debt bill were phony as a $2 bill and won’t make a damn bit of difference to the $25 trillion of new public debt that is baked into the budgetary cake over the next decade. Read More

06.23.23- Distressed Commercial Real Estate Properties Top $64 Billion As "Full-Blown Trouble" Ahead
Tyler Durden

In yet another sign that a commercial real estate crisis has arrived, a new report from MSCI Real Asset reveals that distressed properties are piling up as some building owners of malls and office spaces have no choice in a high-interest rate environment but to default. 

The report, which Bloomberg first reported, shows the number of distressed assets increased by 10% in the first quarter to nearly $64 billion. The report notes distressed CRE assets could balloon to as much as $155 billion. Read More

06.22.23- Push for Global Taxation…
and What Comes Next

Doug Casey

International Man: Last year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and more than 130 countries agreed to set a minimum global corporate tax rate of 15%.

What’s your take on this push for global taxation? Read More

06.21.23- The Biggest Monetary Shock in 52 Years
James Rickards

I recently revealed that the so-called “BRICS+” countries will announce the creation of a new currency at its annual leaders’ summit conference on August 22–24.

This will be the biggest upheaval in international finance since 1971. It’s taking direct aim at the dollar.

Quite simply, the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave. Read More

06.20.23- Economist who forecast 2020 rally says S&P will ‘melt up’ at least 36% by Oct
before global ‘bust’
David Hunter

View Video

06.19.23- Bank Losses To Spook Depositors
John Rubino

View Video

06.17.23- Voters Hate CBDCs. Why Do Governments Keep Pushing Them?
Peter St Onge

Governments worldwide are trying to replace cash with CBDCs, and people worldwide are starting to wake up, but we need a lot more.

A CBDC is a government-run crypto-token that replaces the national currency with a tracking ledger—a list of who owns what—that lets government surveil, control, and mandate every dollar you spend. Read More

06.16.23- What Exactly Happened Today?
Brian Maher

The stock market enjoyed itself a day at the races today.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 428-point jubilation. The S&P 500 posted a 53-point thrill.

The Nasdaq Composite, meantime, leapt 156 points today.

This, one day following the Federal Reserve’s sledgehammered hints that two additional rate increases are in prospect this year. Read More

06.15.23- US Economy – Surprisingly Resilient or Potemkin Village?
Michael Hudson

For today’s episode, we want to talk about what’s going on in the US economy. Because when you look at the discussion that’s going on, you see a lot of contradictory narratives. On the one hand, you have people like Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan, who said on Sunday that the country may face a mild recession later this year. You see a lot of major CEOs making similar predictions. By contrast, the Biden administration and much of the US mainstream media are insisting that the US economy is showing extraordinary resilience. So, Michael, I want to ask you, what is your analysis on the current state of the US economy? Read More

06.14.23- The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami Just Shifted Into Another Gear
Michael Snyder

What is going to happen to our banking system as trillions of dollars worth of commercial real estate loans go bad?  Many months ago, I warned that the greatest commercial real estate crisis in U.S. history was coming.  At the time, a lot of people didn’t believe me and that was fine.  As with so many other things, all I needed to do to be proven right was to wait.  Sadly, a commercial real estate tsunami is now here, and it appears to be accelerating even faster than many of the experts had been anticipating.  Just within the past few weeks, there have been several more high profile defaults, and San Francisco has become the epicenter of this crisis. Read More

06.13.23- Looking Forward
Jeff Thomas

Since its inception, International Man has offered prognostications about what the future will bring – economically, politically and socially. The principle writers of the publication have been at this for decades. Each one began by studying world economics and politics in order to make the best choices as to where to live, where to invest, where to store wealth, etc. Over the years, each one got better at researching, better at reading the signs and, ultimately, better at predicting future events. Read More

06.12.23- We’re Not Finished
James Howard Kunstler

“You give me a piece of ground and a sword and I am going to take back this country with your help and the help of all the homeless Democrats and Republicans who are Americans first.” — Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

If you’re wondering why our country is lost in lunatic raptures of lawless Lawfare and futile MAGAry, it’s because our economy has already collapsed, and our culture and politics with it downstream have also collapsed into spectacular degeneracy. It has already happened. Maybe you don’t know it. Read More

06.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Capitalism, Socialism and ESG
Rupert Darwall

Big claims are being made for ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investment strategies: ESG will reconcile society to capitalism while making investors—and Wall Street—more money.

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, is pushing ESG as part of a marketing pitch to millennials, who put “improving society” ahead of “generating profits.”1 Much of the buy-side pressure for ESG comes from state and municipal pension funds playing politics with taxpayers’ and pensioners’ money, many of which are in poor financial shape. Read More

06.09.23- The Great Reset Is Almost Here –
Are You Prepared?

Brandon Smith

I want you to imagine, for a moment, a future world in which everything we now know about functioning and surviving within the economy is completely upended. This world has gone fully digital, meaning people live within a cashless society where physical monetary interactions are abandoned or prohibited, replaced by CBDCs. All transactions are tracked and traced, nothing is private any longer unless you are operating as a criminal within a black market.

Furthermore, government overtly suppresses and micromanages all forms of production. Small businesses are a thing of the past, and only a select group of major corporations working directly with government are allowed to operate. Read More

06.08.23- The End of Easy Money: Bankruptcy Filings Pile Up at Fastest Rate since 2010
Wolf Richter

A cleansing process, long overdue, to whittle down the corporate debt overhang and clear out deadwood, at the expense of investors.

It’s turning into a banner year for corporate bankruptcy filings, after years of Easy Money that caused all kinds of excesses, fueled by yield-chasing investors, in an environment where the Fed had repressed yields with all its might. Those yield-chasing investors kept even the most over-indebted zombies supplied with ever-more fresh money. But that era has ended. Interest rates are much higher, and investors are getting a little more prudent, and Easy Money is gone. Read More

06.07.23- The Coming Shock to the Global Monetary System
James Rickards

On Aug. 22, about 2½ months from today, the most significant development in international finance since 1971 will be unveiled.

It involves the rollout of a major new currency that could weaken the role of the dollar in global payments and ultimately displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency.

It could happen in just a few years. Read More

06.06.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What Happens When
the Competent Opt Out?

Charles Hugh Smith

By this terminal stage, the competent have been driven out, quit or burned out.

What happens with the competent retire, burn out or opt out? It's a question few bother to ask because the base assumption is that there is an essentially limitless pool of competent people who can be tapped or trained to replace those who retire, burn out or opt out, i.e. quit in favor of a lifestyle that doesn't require much in the way of income or stress. Read More

06.05.23- The Treasury Storm of the Century
Is Coming

David Haggith

That is what passage of the debt-ceiling bill actually presages.

Passage of the debt ceiling bill presages a treasury storm the likes of which none of us have ever seen. It will deluge bonds, pound stocks, raise interest on everything, and sweep away the corporate debt binge that fueled stock buybacks, drowning zombie corporations in its flood. Read More

06.03.23- Weekend Rant: America Speeds Headlong Into an Unimaginable Fiscal Disaster
Justin O. Smith

I haven’t been worried about this debt ceiling “crisis” shutting the government down. I remember the shutdown that went on for three weeks during the Clinton years, and we survived it just fine.

What everyone should find troubling is the spending that has grown so large it accounts for much more than the receipts the U.S. takes in each year. And if it grows too much larger, it will eventually make it near impossible to even service the interest on the debt. Read More

06.02.23- Deposits at Capitol One bank frozen by NYC’s banking commission
amid insolvency fears

JD Heyes

After Democrats under then-President Barack Obama rammed through a massive new regulatory regime for the banking industry following the 2008 “Great Recession,” Americans were told that bank collapses were a thing of the past.

We needn’t worry anymore, Democrats said, because brand-new unaccountable agencies like the Consumer Finance Protection Board were going to make sure that depositors were safe, their assets protected, and the bad guys who run shoddy banks dealt with. Read More

06.01.23- With 75% of Americans Reporting This, Recession Is Undeniable
Peter Reagan

Two years ago, we referenced various reports about Americans’ savings (consumer and retirement), reporting that they had dropped to the lowest point in years.

Unfortunately, things haven’t improved much since then.

We just discussed the state of consumer debt, and it isn’t very good at all, reaching a record $17 trillion. Read More

05.31.23- The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse
Tyler Durden

In the small print detailing the end of the debt ceiling melodrama which, as we explained, is a farce as it boosts inflation-adjusted spending contrary to Republican promises, there was some actual news: the great student loan boondoggle is about to come to a screeching halt, after a three year "emergency pause" which redirected tens of billions in dollars away from mandatory student loan repayment to other forms of discretionary spending. Read More

05.30.23- New Data: Huge Plunge in Manufacturing, Recession Is Here!
Peter St Onge

View Video

05.29.23- State Farm Halts Home Insurance Sales In California
Tyler Durden

Faltering California took another economic hit on Friday, as America's largest personal lines insurer said it would immediately stop selling new home insurance policies in the state. California is the largest property and casualty insurance market in the country. 

State Farm attributed the decision to three factors: "historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market." Reinsurance is a method of transferring some of an insurer's risk to other insurers.  Read More

05.27.23- Today’s Housing Market Looks Even Worse than 2008
Peter Reagan

Since we’ve been in a constant state of recession watch for a while now, today I’m going to explore the current state of the housing market.

Why housing? Well, here’s what The Economist has to sayabout it:

The importance of American housing resides not so much in its absolute size, big though it is at about $45 [trillion] in total value. Rather, it serves as a bellwether of the economy’s performance amid rising interest rates. Has the Federal Reserve lifted rates by enough to calm inflation without crushing growth? Has it gone too far? Or, perhaps, not far enough? As one of the earliest and largest sectors to react to changes, the property market offers some answers. Read More

05.26.23- Wages Going Up for Good: Catch-Up and Blowback
Charles Hugh Smith

Blowback has its own dynamics, as we’ll learn in the decade ahead.

One of the most durable expectations in the financial sphere is that inflation will drop sharply in a recession and the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates back to near-zero. There is a good reason to doubt this: rising wages. Yes, we all hear about the millions of human workers who will shortly be replaced by AI–wonderful for corporate profits!–but few pundits bother looking at long cycles in interest rates and inflation, and even fewer pay any attention to the absurdly extreme asymmetry of labor and capital. Read More

Debt Ceiling Deal or No Deal:
The Banking System is Toast!
Rafi Farber

View Video

05.24.23- ‘Real Assets’ are cheaper than they’ve ever been in modern history
Simon Black

I’ve just returned home to Puerto Rico from a wonderful weekend in Panama City, Panama where we hosted an exclusive event for our Total Access members.

We chose Panama for a specific reason: the first conference I ever held back in 2011 was in Panama. Read More

05.23.23- Red Alert!
James Rickards

Hurricanes are a threat if you live in certain areas. Yet, hurricanes are reliably confined to a hurricane season that runs from June to November in the Northern Hemisphere.

Likewise, wildfires are a threat, but they’re usually confined to periods when dry conditions and high winds combine to make forests predictably combustible. Read More

05.22.23- What Should Be Done About the Debt Ceiling Argument Between the Democrats and Republicans?
Ray Dalio

I was recently asked what I thought of the debt ceiling debate. To answer that question, I will first explain what I think is likely to happen, and then I’ll explain where I am coming from, which will give you background for my explanation of what I think should be done. 

I think that what’s most likely to happen is that the two sides won’t allow a default (or if they do, it won’t be for long) and they won’t deal with the big issues in a substantive way. Rather they will tweak things in ways that won’t matter much and that will look better than they really are (e.g., they will say that they will cut the deficit in future years, which they won’t when the time comes). I wouldn’t do that. Read More

05.20.23- New Debt Report Proves We’re in Uncharted Territory
Peter Reagan

You don’t need a degree in economics to understand that the economy is driven primarily by consumer spending.

When the pandemic started, that spending slowed, thanks in part to the panicked response by government officials who shut down businesses for weeks or months in 2020. (Remember “Two weeks to stop the spread”?) Read More

05.19.23- Debt Ceiling Standoff Threatens More Than Social Security
Peter Reagan

According to the latest Trustees report, approximately 66 million people receive some form of monetary Social Security benefits.

The cost of Social Security programs have exceeded its income since 2021. So they’re underfunded (and falling behind).

Without changes, the trust fund reserve will be depleted in the future. According to the Trustees, that future draws nearer every day: Read More

05.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Government Wrecked the Gas Can
Jeffrey Tucker

A whole generation will come to expect these things to work badly.

The gas gauge broke. There was no smartphone app to tell me how much was left, so I ran out. I had to call the local gas station to give me enough to get on my way. The gruff but lovable attendant arrived in his truck and started to pour gas in my car’s tank. And pour. And pour.

“Hmmm, I just hate how slow these gas cans are these days,” he grumbled. “There’s no vent on them.” Read More

05.17.23- Florida Is First U.S. State To Ban Central Bank Digital Currency
Mathew D. Staver and  Anita L. Staver

FORT MYERS, FL – Governor Ron DeSantis signed a first-of-its-kind legislation last week banning the use of a federally-adopted Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Florida to protect the freedom of Florida residents. Additionally, the bill also prohibits the use of foreign CBDCs in the state. 

Gov. DeSantis said in a press release that the bill is meant to prevent “government overreach” from controlling one’s personal finances and “to protect consumers against globalist efforts to adopt a worldwide digital currency.” SB 7054, which passed in the legislature with strong bipartisan support, revised the definition of money in Florida’s Uniform Commercial Code, the state’s governing laws for commercial transactions, to exclude any CBDC. Read More

05.16.23- JPMorgan Opens War Room
James Rickards

The “X-Date” is the day the U.S. Treasury goes broke. It’s not the same as the debt ceiling but it is a consequence of the failure of Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

Right now, the Treasury is at the debt ceiling. That means it has no legal authority to issue net new debt. It can issue new debt if old debt is maturing. That keeps the total debt unchanged; you’re just rolling over maturing debt into new debt without increasing the total debt. Read More

05.15.23- Babson’s Warning
Jeff Thomas

[A] crash is coming, and it may be terrific. …. The vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression. There may be a stampede for selling which will exceed anything that the Stock Exchange has ever witnessed. Wise are those investors who now get out of debt.

The above words could easily have been stated by me or another of the (very) few others who currently predict the coming of crashes in the markets. Read More

05.13.23- 5 reasons food will get scarcer and more expensive
Richard (Rick) Mills

The days of affordable food may now be a distant memory. Following months of steady decline, the price of food commodities remains well above pre-pandemic levels, and is now showing signs of a rebound.

In April, the United Nations food agency’s world price index rose for the first time in a year, reflecting higher prices for sugar, meat and rice. Although the UN gauge is still 20% lower than the record set in March 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain exports, concerns over inflation never left.  Read More

05.12.23- Why Future Returns
Could Approach Zero

Lance Roberts

What if I told you that future returns could approach zero? Such seems hard to believe, considering young investors piling back into the markets since the beginning of the year. As I discussed previously, this behavior follows the clubbing many received in 2022.

“A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out. Read More

05.11.23- The Economy Is Beginning To Shudder -
The Lag Effect

Bruce Wilds

Shudder is an interesting word, in this case, when talking about the economy, it is being used as a verb that means to wobble or shake in not a good way. While the verdict is not yet in, recently there has been more talk about the lag effect coming home to roost. The lag effect suggests that it sometimes takes a while before we witness the effect of an action. When you poison a plant, or tree there is a time lag before the damage you have inflicted upon it becomes obvious. Read More

05.10.23- The Epic Failure Of Modern Experts
John Rubino

And they wonder why no one trusts them

There’s a debate in the comments section here about whether Americans have gotten suddenly dumber, leading them to elect populist presidents and refuse vaccines. I started to weigh in but quickly realized that the story is broader and deeper than just vaccines and Donald Trump. 

So here’s some context: Read More

05.09.23- "It's Spooky": Stanford Professor Warns
Thousands Of US Banks Are
"Potentially Insolvent"

Tyler Durden

Following the collapse of First Republic last week, the meltdown of three other banks, and the Federal Reserve's quarter-point increase, making the tenth straight hike in an aggressive campaign to tame elevated inflation, a professor of finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business presented a grim warning that the regional banking dominos are falling. 

In a New York Times opinion piece titled"Yes, You Should Be Worried About a Potential Bank Crisis. Here's Why,"Professor Amit Seru wrote, "the fragility and collapse of several high-profile banks are most likely not an isolated phenomenon." Read More

05.08.23- It's Time To Panic...
George Gammon

View Video

Consumer Credit Shocker: Credit Card Debt Explodes At 2nd Fastest Pace On Record Just As Rates Hit All-Time High
Tyler Durden

So much for credit being tight.

One month ago, not long after we warned that consumer credit was about to get much tighter in the aftermath of one of the most depressing Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys, which saw near record tightening in lending standards coupled with a historic plunge in credit demand, we observed that - as one would generally expect - growth in US credit card debt had ground to a crawl, as revolving credit rose by just $5 billion, down sharply from the $12.8 billion in January, down from the $13.7 billion LTM average, and the lowest single increase since April 2021. Read More

05.05.23- On The Verge Of A Banking Industry Apocalypse?
Michael Snyder

Every time that they tell us that everything is fine, things just seem to get even worse.  This banking crisis was supposed to be “over” after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.  It wasn’t.  Then it was supposed to be “over” after First Republic collapsed.  It wasn’t.  By now, most of you already know about what has been happening to PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon and countless other regional bank stocks.  In all my years, I have never seen banking stocks fall so quickly.  If this avalanche continues to pick up momentum, pretty soon we will have to stop talking about a “banking industry crisis” and start talking about a “banking industry apocalypse”. Read More

05.04.23- Establishment Economists Are Finally Realizing It’s Time To Pay The Piper
Brandon Smith

The one thing about the financial world that never ceases to amaze me is how far behind the curve mainstream economists always seem to be. Not long ago we had both Janet Yellen and Paul Krugman, economists supposedly at the front of the pack, both proving to be utterly ignorant (or strategically dishonest) on the effects of central bank stimulus measures and the threat of inflation. In fact, they both consistently denied such a threat existed until they were crushed by the evidence. Read More

05.03.23- How many more bank failures will it take to shake Americans’ confidence in the ‘full faith and credit’ of the U.S. government?
Leo Hohmann

Don’t wait to find out the answer…Financial planner says ‘A credit union is a better strategic decision right now.

Is America’s banking system safe?

The data shows that the three American banks that have failed so far this year represent more deposits than the 25 banks that collapsed in 2008. Read More

05.02.23- This Is The Sharpest Tightening of Credit in History
Bert Dohmen

We wrote in our March Wellington Letter that the free market, i.e. the banks, will now do what the Fed has refused to do: Tighten credit! The Fed only hiked interest rates, which actually fuels inflation. Most central banks make that mistake. 

A credit crunch will now reduce inflation, but in a very painful manner. A lack of credit means an avalanche of bankruptcies. They should hit record highs. Read More

05.01.23- The S.E.C. and BlackRock Blink on SLV
Ted Butler

The big news is last night’s release of the new short report on stocks, which indicated a massive 25 million share reduction in the short position on SLV, the big silver ETF, as of the close of business April 14. The short position on SLV fell from 41.5 million shares to 16.3 million shares, the largest by-monthly drop (60%) in history, to the lowest short position on SLV in more than two years – back to the time in Feb 2021 when BlackRock (the trust’s sponsor) amended the trust’s prospectus to include new risk factors warning short sellers to beware of shorting shares due to serious concerns of the availability of physical silver bullion.  Read More

04.29.23- Warning: the Financial System is About to Lose Its Last Major Prop
Graham Summers

Japan just reported inflation of 3.5%.

This is a big deal. 

Why?

First and foremost, it’s significantly higher than expectations: 3.5% vs 3.2%.

Secondly, it shows that inflation is turning back upwards in Japan. Last month’s inflation data was 3.2% which was down from the prior month’s 3.3% which was down from the prior month’s 4.3%. Read More

04.28.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: On War and Wars
James Howard Kunstler

“When we see the few truth-tellers who are the stars of their organizations jettisoned – Tucker Carlson from Fox News, Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone, Glenn Greenwald from The Intercept, James O’Keefe from Project Veritas… we must face the fact that there is an organized conspiracy to suppress truth.” Read More

04.27.23- It's a Good Thing for Ordinary Americans If the US Loses
Reserve Currency Status

Ryan McMaken

Earlier this month, Larry Kudlow insisted that it is "it's incumbent on the U.S. government, no matter who's in power, to maintain the reserve currency status of the dollar." Kudlow laments that a toppling of the dollar from that perch "seems to be the direction we're going in." 

Kudlow's remarks came a day after Donald Trump declared that China is trying to displace the U.S. Dollar [sic] as the NUMBER ONE CURRENCY" and that if this occurs, it would be the biggest defeat for our Country [sic] in its history." Read More

04.26.23- Hard data that confidence in the dollar
is cracking

Simon Black

It is becoming increasingly clear that the world is losing faith in the United States dollar… and rapidly turning to alternatives. And that’s a huge deal for the United States.

For nearly eight decades, the US economy and US government have enjoyed the unparalleled benefits of the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. Read More

04.25.23- We’re Our Own Worst Enemy
James Rickards

It’s a fact of life that in any group of students, some are likely to be smarter and quicker than others while some just can’t keep up.

It’s unfortunate that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has turned out to be the slow kid in the class when it comes to economic sanctions and financial warfare. Read More

04.24.23- Are We Heading Towards
Another Great Depression?

George Gammon

Court historians have thoroughly white-washed the horrors of the New Deal.

Just look at your average history class. Professors boldly declare that the New Deal was a net positive for society. If it wasn’t for then-president Franklin D. Roosevelt’s bravery, the US would have been thoroughly gobbled up by the predatory capitalist system.

However, real history had something else to say. Read More

04.22.23- Will We Ever Get Accountability?
Tyler Durden

It's been just over a week since Ethereum’s latest upgrade (Shapella) activated successfully, enabling ETH withdrawals, with the rate of withdrawals in line with expectations, accompanied by and increase in ETH deposits and renewed institutional interest.

Goldman Sachs' Crypto desk wrote the following post-mortem on the last week: Read More

04.21.23- "The Other Canaries In The Coal Mine Just Haven't Shown Up Yet"
Vildana Hajric

Investors See Clues of Bank-Fueled Slowdown

Everyone’s on the lookout for how last month’s bank turmoil may be rippling through the economy. Roughly a week into earnings season, investors are starting to get some clues.

Take Fastenal, a supplier of construction materials like nuts and bolts that’s seen as an industrial bellwether.  Read More

04.20.23- Over the Falls: Credit, Collateral, Risk, Asset Valuations
Charles Hugh Smith

Together, these factors generate a self-reinforcing cycle of debt saturation, declining collateral and credit contraction. 

If we want to understand where the economy is going, credit and risk are good places to start. Credit/debt is how the system creates and distributes money: when a home buyer gets a mortgage to buy a house, that mortgage increases the money supply. When the mortgage is paid off, the money supply contracts. 
Read More

04.19.23- My Ignored Warnings of American De-industrialization
Paul Craig Roberts

Last week, I explained how economists and policymakers destroyed our economy for the sake of short-term corporate profits from jobs offshoring and financial deregulation.

That same week Business Week published an article, “Factory Jobs Are Gone. Get Over It,” by Charles Kenny. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-23/manufacturing-jobs-may-not-be-cure-for-unemployment-inequality Kenny expresses the view of establishment economists, such as Brookings Institute economist Justin Wolfers who wants to know “What’s with the political fetish for manufacturing? Are factories really so awesome?” Read More

04.18.23- Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us?
Davide Barbuscia 

NEW YORK, March 7(Reuters) - Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since 1981 on Tuesday, once again putting a spotlight on what many investors consider a time-honored recession signal.

The U.S. central bank has hiked interest rates aggressively over the last year to fight inflation that hovered around 40-year highs and bring it down to its 2% target rate. Read More

04.17.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Chaos In Our Streets Is The Inevitable Result Of Decades
Of Failed Liberal Policies

Michael Snyder

What did we think was going to happen?  We allowed liberals to run most of our major cities for decades, and now those cities have degenerated into drug-ridden, crime-infested hellholes.  Forty years ago, my elderly grandmother lived in one of those major cities, and she would take us on very long walks through the heart of her city without any concern for our safety whatsoever.  And that was because the city was safe.  But now everything has changed.  The worst areas of our largest cities now look like something out of a post-apocalyptic horror movie on a permanent basis, and the rest of the world is laughing at us. Read More

04.15.23- Weekend Rant: Project Icebreaker: The Beginning Of A One World Digital Currency System?
Brandon Smith

There has been extensive discussion in the past couple of years within alternative media circles about the dangers of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); a currency framework very similar to blockchain based products like Bitcoin but directly controlled by central bankers. It’s a threat that some analysts including myself have been writing about for more than a decade, so it’s good to finally see the issue being addressed more in the mainstream. Read More

04.14.23- The IMF Has Just Unveiled A New Global Currency Known As The “Universal Monetary Unit” That Is Supposed To Revolutionize The World Economy
Michael Snyder

A new global currency just launched, but 99 percent of the global population has no idea what just happened.  The “Universal Monetary Unit”, also known as “Unicoin”, is an “international central bank digital currency” that has been designed to work in conjunction with all existing national currencies.  This should set off alarm bells for all of us, because the widespread adoption of a new “global currency” would be a giant step forward for the globalist agenda. Read More

04.13.23- Danger Ahead. Banking Sector Crisis
Gerald Celente

View Video

This Time Really Could Be Different
Jim Rickards

The new global financial crisis as exemplified by the successive failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse and the potential failure of First Republic Bank is well underway.

Here’s the key takeaway: Despite a brief hiatus after the UBS-Credit Suisse shotgun wedding on March 19, the crisis may be far from over. Read More

04.11.23- Goodbye, King Dollar
James Rickards

I’ve written for years about different nations’ persistent efforts to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the leading global reserve currency and the main medium of exchange.

At the same time, I’ve said that such processes don’t happen overnight; instead, they happen slowly and incrementally over decades.

While that’s true, the process is accelerating in ways no one could have anticipated just over a year ago. Read More

04.10.23- Bondage Is Cruel
MN Gordon

Did you know that San Francisco’s recently completed 1.7-mile Central Subway cost $1.95 billion?  That amounts to over $217,400 per foot.  On a per inch basis, this is over $18,000. Is $18K per inch a good deal?

Currently, less than 3,000 daily riders take the Central Subway.  This represents about 0.37 percent of the city’s total population.  Perhaps for these riders it’s a good deal.  For everyone else it’s a complete rip off. Read More

04.08.23- Here’s What the Smart Money’s Thinking
Brian Maher

The flighty birds of the moment congregate in the stock market. The wise owls nest in the bond market.

The bond market is where you will find them.

That is: The bond market will let you know where the economy is heading, say the veterans. Read More

04.07.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: America, the Tyranny of the Stupid
Gordon Duff

People around the world are convinced that the United States is a nation run by criminal psychopaths and morons. A greater fear is that world leaders mistakenly assume that their American counterparts who do and say insane things continually are, in actuality, normal people operating inside some “master plan.”

Then, when time and time again, no such plan materializes, and it is demonstrated that America has blundered into a diplomatic, economic or military morass, for some unknown reason, a “reset” occurs, and the wrong assumptions are again made. Read More

04.06.23- Why the Regime Needs the Dollar to Be the Global Reserve Currency
Ryan McMaken

Last week, Fox News aired a segment discussing the possibility that the US dollar will cease to be the global reserve currency and what that would mean for Americans. The tone of the piece suggested that a “catastrophic” decline of the US dollar was not only possible, but perhaps even imminent. CNN last week also aired its own segment suggesting the US will face “a reckoning like none before” if the “dollar’s dominance” in the global economy falls significantly.

Much of the analysis was framed to stoke the public’s fears of Chinese geopolitical power, and the Fox segment was especially hyperbolic in its predictions of near-total economic devastation resulting from any movement away from the dollar in international trade. Read More

04.05.23- Why The Panic Is Just Beginning
Jame Rickards

Let’s step back from today’s banking financial crisis and look at the bigger picture. That will help us to understand the system dynamics, and estimate how long the crisis might last, and how destructive it might be.

As a preliminary matter, let’s distinguish between a recession (even a bad one) and a financial crisis. They’re different. Read More

04.04.23- Global Bankruptcy Already Baked In
Charles Hugh Smith

Scrape away the complexity and every economic crisis and crash boils down to the precarious asymmetry between collateral and the debt secured by that collateralcollapsing.

It’s really that simple.

In eras of easy credit, both creditworthy and marginal borrowers are suddenly able to borrow more. This flood of new cash seeking a return fuels red-hot demand for conventional assets considered “safe investments” (real estate, blue chip stocks and bonds), demand of which given the limited supply of “safe” assets pushes valuations of these assets to the moon. Read More

04.03.23- Warning: Inflation is About to Explode Higher Again...
Graham Summers

OPEC shocked the world by announcing oil production cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day starting in May.

This is a big deal for inflation.

Why?

Because as I have noted previously, the ONLY inflation data that had come down in the last 12 months was in energy prices. And that was due to the Biden administration dumping 250 million barrels of oil in the open market .Read More

04.01.23- Deflating the Credit Bubble
Alasdair Macleod

The theme of this article is debt deflation. How likely is it that the downturn in broad money supply will continue, and if so, why? And what are the consequences?

The major central banks have increasingly resorted to interest rate management as their principal means of demand management. Yet history shows little correlation between managed interest rates and the growth of credit, which is represented by broad money statistics. Read More

03.31.23- "Change is Coming That Hasn't Happened In 100 Years" - World Dumps US Dollar
Mike Maloney

View Video

03.30.23- I love how everyone pretends
the bank crisis is over…

Simon Black

Practically on cue, politicians began their public hearings yesterday about the recent banking crisis.

This was so predictable; every time there’s a major crisis, Congressmen book a committee meeting to express their shock and outrage. They pass new laws to prevent a future crisis. Then their new laws fail to work properly, so they hold another public hearing to express more outrage. Read More

03.29.23- World Bank Warns Of 'Lost Economic Decade' As Turmoil Spreads
Tyler Durden

The world is in a precarious situation, with the potential for nuclear conflict. Central banks are taking aggressive measures to address decades-high inflation by raising interest rates, which in turn is causing a banking crisis in the Western world. As recession risks surge worldwide and international trade fractures, the future of the global economy appears to be heading down a dark path. Read More

03.28.23- Guess Who Is Now Warning That “Commercial Real Estate Is In Trouble”?
Michael Snyder

What will our financial system look like once the 20 trillion dollar commercial real estate industry implodes?  You might want to start thinking about that, because the truth is that the industry is in a tremendous amount of trouble.   Occupancy rates are extremely low and getting lower, rising interest rates have created all sorts of havoc, and now many of the small and mid-size banks that the industry depends upon for financing are in serious jeopardy.  In essence, the commercial real estate industry is facing a “perfect storm” of nightmares, and this crisis is only going to escalate in the months ahead. Read More

03.27.23- The Everything Bubble and Global Bankruptcy
Charles Hugh Smith

The resulting erosion of collateral will collapse the global credit bubble, a repricing/reset that will bankrupt the global economy and financial system.  

Scrape away the complexity and every economic crisis and crash boils down to the precarious asymmetry between collateral and the debt secured by that collateral collapsing. It's really that simple. Read More

03.25.23- Yellen Convenes Emergency Financial Stability Meeting On Friday As Banking Crisis Explodes
Tyler Durden

"Capital markets stop panicking when officials start panicking" - Michael Hartnett

Here comes the panic.

Bloomberg just reported that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen - who was singlehandedly responsible for stoking and restarting the bank crisis on Wednesday which until that day was easing back, with her comments that nobody in charge was even talking about a uniform deposit insurance, let alone working on one - will convene the heads of top US financial regulators Friday morning for a unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Read More

03.24.23- Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ sees ‘Bermuda Triangle’ of risks for economy
and warns of a 2008-like crisis

Steve Mollman

Top economist Nouriel Roubini believes a “severe recession” is likely in the next year thanks to a “Bermuda Triangle” of dangers to the economy. And, oh yes, he’s warning about the “mother of all debt crises."

Roubini, who predicted the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and earned the moniker “Dr. Doom” on Wall Street, laid out his thinking in a new interview with the McKinsey Global Institute's Forward Thinking podcast. Read More

03.23.23- The Math Behind Deposit Insurance, And Why It's The Beginning Of The End
Tyler Durden

As Simon White writes today, "a full guarantee of all bank deposits would spell the end of moral hazard disciplining banks and mark the final chapter of the dollar’s multi-decade debasement." And yet that's where we are headed, even if with a few hiccups along the way, because as White also notes, with the latest banking crisis in the US, it’s the clean-up that could end up doing far more lasting damage. That's because with the failure of SVB et al prompted the FDIC to guarantee that all depositors will be made whole, whether insured or not. Read More

03.22.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Circus Politics Are Intended to Distract Us. Don’t Be Distracted
Nisha and John Whitehead

It is easy to be distracted right now by the bread and circus politics that have dominated the news headlines lately, but don’t be distracted.

Don’t be fooled, not even a little.

We’re being subjected to the oldest con game in the books, the magician’s sleight of hand that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst. Read More

03.21.23- The Banking Crisis —
and Biden Bucks

James Rickards

The biggest mistake any analyst or investor can make right now is to believe that the banking crisis is over.

Veterans of such crises (and I include myself in that category) know that once the dominoes start falling, they keep falling until some government intervention of a particularly draconian kind is imposed. Read More

03.20.23- "This Is It! The Financial System Is Terminally Broken"
Egon Von Greyers

The financial system is terminally broken, toast, kaput!

Anyone who doesn’t see what it happening will soon lose a major part of their assets either through bank failure, currency debasement or the collapse of all bubble assets like stocks, property and bonds by 75-100%. Many bonds will become worthless.

Wealth preservation in physical gold is now absolutely critical. Obviously it must be stored outside a broken financial system. More later in this article. Read More

03.18.23- Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
Andrew Korybko

Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the IranianSaudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects in one fell swoop through this deal, with the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) connecting them to Russia while the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWAEC) will do the same vis-à-vis China. Read More

03.17.23- The Crisis is Here... What to do NOW
Doug Casey

View Video

03.16.23- Is The US Banking System Safe? ...
15 Years Later

Jim Quinn

“We’ve got strong financial institutions…Our markets are the envy of the world. They’re resilient, they’re…innovative, they’re flexible. I think we move very quickly to address situations in this country, and, as I said, our financial institutions are strong.” – Henry Paulson – 3/16/08

“I have full confidence in banking regulators to take appropriate actions in response and noted that the banking system remains resilient and regulators have effective tools to address this type of event. Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again.” – Janet Yellen – 3/12/23 Read More

03.15.23- Looming Bank Failures Point to More Price Inflation as Real Wages Fall Again
Ryan McMaken

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in eighteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.0 percent year over year in February before seasonal adjustment. That’s down from January’s year-over-year increase of 6.4 percent, and February is the twenty-fourth month in a row with inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target. Price inflation has now been above 6 percent for seventeen months in a row. Read More

03.14.23- What Comes After the Great Liquidation
MN Gordon

Expectations were great.  When 2023 started, there was a general sense that the stock and bond markets had turned over a new leaf.  A repeat of 2022 was out of the question.

The primary assumption was that inflation would relent.  After that, everything else would neatly fall in line.  Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. Read More

03.13.23- Panic in the STREET: One Bank Crashes, A Bigger One RUNS for its life then crashes, and Suddenly it’s Panic on Wall Street!
David Haggith

Just when you have figured out what you’re going to write about at the start of day, along comes major morning news that sweeps your plans away. Today, the news changed more quickly than I could write the introduction to this article. I had to rewrite it and the headline several times after I published the article! Read More

03.11.23- Silicon Valley Bank collapse
sows wider fears

Liz Hoffman

THE SCOOP

The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank — the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history — spread on Friday as tech companies scrambled to make payroll, investors worried about contagion, and other businesses discovered surprising connections to the lender.

Regulators shut down SVB, the country’s 15th-largest bank, after depositors pulled their cash and mounting losses on bond investments made it functionally insolvent. The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation transferred insured deposits at SVB to a newly created entity and will now look to sell or wind down the bank. Read More

03.10.23- Fiscal Illusion and Entitlements
Gary Galles

As the State of the Union address and subsequent pronouncements have made clear, American politics is in the firm grip of fiscal illusion.

One example is President Biden’s bragging that “In the last two years, my administration has cut the deficit by more than $1.7 trillion—the largest deficit reduction in American history,” which implied that we should only look at a short run effect which had little, if anything, to do with the policies he adopted, in evaluating his fiscal policy. Read More

03.09.23- Dead Cat Bounce In Housing Followed By More Downside
Dave Kranzler

The U.S. housing market is currently the least affordable in at least 25 years:

Affordability is, generically, the ratio of monthly income vs the median price of a home. Essentially the degree to which a potential home buyer can afford the basic monthly payments on a home. Here’s another way to look at affordability in terms of the monthly cost (mortgage, taxes, insurance) to buy a house: Read More

03.08.23- Is MMT Now Official Policy?
James Rickards

Remember Modern Monetary Theory or “MMT”? I first sounded the alarm back in 2018 and then again in 2021.

At the time, MMT was all the rage among monetary and fiscal policy wonks. It seemed to offer the best of all possible worlds. You can spend as much as you want without any downside. Read More

03.07.23- What If There Are No Solutions?
Charles Hugh Smith

The unencumbered realist concludes that there are no solutions within a status quo structure that is itself the problem.

Realists who question received wisdom and conclude the status quo is untenable are quickly labeled pessimists because the zeitgeist expects a solution is always at hand--preferably a technocratic one that requires zero sacrifice and doesn't upset the status quo apple cart. Read More

03.06.23- The War for the Dollar is Already Over Part I
Tom Luongo

And the Fed has won. In the words of Ambassador Kosh from the classic television series Babylon 5, “The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.”

For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?” Read More

03.04.23- Why Is Every Walmart In The Entire City Of Portland Being Permanently Shut Down?
Michael Snyder

By the end of this month, there will be no more Walmart stores in Portland.  More than 641,000 people live within the city limits of Portland, and so you would think that there should be a lot of money to be made there.  But Walmart has decided to wave the white flag.  Portland has been transformed into a complete and utter hellhole, and apparently Walmart executives have determined that things are not going to turn around any time soon.  So they have announced that the last two Walmart stores in Portland that were still operational will be permanently shut down by the end of MarchRead More

03.03.23- China's Turn
Mike Whitney

Americas Hyper-Financialized Economic System Is No Match for China's Government-Directed Investment Model. Regrettably, China's Explosive Growth Is Pushing a Desperate Washington Closer to War.

Ukraine is the first flashpoint in a great power struggle between the United States and China. After years of shifting its industries to low-wage locations around the world, the US finds itself steadliy losing market-share to a faster-growing and more resourceful China. By most estimates, China’s economy will overtake the United States by 2035 at which point, Beijing will be in a much better position to shape international trade relations that promotes its own interests. Read More

03.02.23- Biden’s “Great Economic Recovery” Narrative Is Built On Deception
Brandon Smith

This past month a poll held by ABC and the Washington Post with a 37 year history asked Americans if they were better or worse off in the two years since Biden entered the White House. If you were to ask Biden this question, you would be regaled with a flurry of great news about a fantastic economic recovery, epic jobs numbers, falling inflation and a dropping deficit. When you ask actual average citizens, you get a much different reply. Read More

03.01.23- Brace Yourself For Extreme Economic Turbulence
Michael Snyder

Why is the U.S. economy suddenly deteriorating so rapidly all around us?  Well, the short answer is that this downturn is way overdue.  For years, our leaders tried to cheat the laws of economics.  The Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor, which is something that never would happen in a true free market economy, and they pumped trillions of fresh dollars that they literally created out of thin air into the financial system.  Meanwhile, our politicians in Washington were engaging in the greatest debt binge that the world has ever seen.  All of this reckless manipulation seemed to work for a while, but many of us warned that it would inevitably create a major inflation crisis, and that is precisely what happened.  So now the Fed is aggressively hiking interest rates in a desperate attempt to tame the inflation monster that they helped to create, and higher rates are absolutely crushing economic activity. Read More

02.27.23- What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk
Ellen Brown

Financial podcasts have been featuring ominous headlines lately along the lines of “Your Bank Can Legally Seize Your Money” and “Banks Can STEAL Your Money?! Here’s How!” The reference is to “bail-ins:” the provision under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allowing Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs, basically the biggest banks) to bail in or expropriate their creditors’ money in the event of insolvency. The problem is that depositors are classed as “creditors.” So how big is the risk to your deposit account? Part I of this two part article will review the bail-in issue. Part II will look at the derivatives risk that could trigger the next global financial crisis. Read More

02.25.23- Fear And Greed With A Roll Of The Dice
MN Gordon

Bear markets take time.  They also provide countless occasions to lose money.  With each bounce comes an opportunity for investors to buy higher so they can later sell lower.

Major U.S. stock market indexes hit what is likely an interim bottom in the fall of 2022.  Since then, they’ve bounced with incredible vitality.  The bounce has brought new confidence to investors at what may end up being the worst possible time. Read More

02.24.23- The Geoeconomics of Modern Conflict
James Rickards

Geopolitics play a major role in the outlook for global economies. But more importantly, today, we must look at the world through the prism of geoeconomics.

What is “geoeconomics”? Obviously, it’s a portmanteau from the words geopolitics and economics. There’s nothing new about considering those disciplines in the same context. Read More

02.23.23- This "Strong" Economy Is A Facade Built Out Of Debt
Michael Maharrey

Retail sales surged in January, creating the impression that the economy is humming along nicely. After all, there can’t be a problem if consumers are out there consuming, right?

But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree? Read More

02.22.23- The Market Faces A Second
"Shattering Revelation"

Michael Every

Shattering revelations

Yesterday saw stocks swoon (S&P -2.0%, Dow -2.1% to negative year-to-date) and bonds slump (US 2-year yields +10bp, 10-year yields +12bp to test closer to 4%), with expectations of the Fed Funds terminal rate rising to 5.35% - still 15bps short of reality, but a partial market catch-up to it. Read More

02.21.23- America is About to Go Supernova
Simon Black

On the evening of April 17, 1006 AD, a little more than 1,000 years ago, human beings from around the world looked up into the night sky and saw a brilliant light, the likes of which they had never before seen in their entire lives.

Most people thought it was a new star– the brightest, by far, that anyone had ever observed. Some thought it was an omen or a sign from the gods. Read More

02.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Moment of Greatest Danger
William Schryver

The Moment of Greatest Danger

More true now than it was before

With the incomprehensibly costly Ukrainian “counter-offensive” having bogged down against reinforced Russian defensive lines, the decisive military operations of the Ukraine War have taken a giant step towards their long-foregone conclusion. Russia will fully achieve the three objectives of its “special military operation” as explicitly stated by Vladimir Putin in his address to the world delivered on the opening day of the war: liberating the Donbass; excising the Nazi influence from the region, and demilitarizing Ukraine. Read More

02.18.23- Stocks Seek New Religion in Effort to Rise from their Decline, but Where’s the Beef?
David Haggith

The intro here was written for my last edition of The Daily Doom,but it applies equally to everything we are seeing with inflation and jobs and the stock market today (taking the trip down and up and probably down again today) because it is the same ol’ error in thinking that leaves this stock market and the Fed’s inflation foo fighters predictably confounded:

After the latest CPI inflation report, the Wall Street prophets of profits have moved to a higher level of highs as the opiate smoke circles their brains. They have shifted their dialectic from the US economy making a “soft landing” to a new “no-landing” prediction. Read More

02.17.23- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Fraud!!!
Brian Maher

The United States Government Accountability Office is on the case…

GAO is out to specify the amount of taxpayer monies lost to fraud at the federal level:

Measuring and estimating the extent of fraud is part of broader efforts to improve agencies’ actions to strategically manage fraud risk. The broader work includes putting those measures and estimates in context so that the federal government can effectively use fraud measurement and estimation to enhance its ability to prevent, detect and respond to fraud. Read More

02.16.23- Dr. Jim Willie: Everything Is Breaking
Untold History Channel

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02.15.23- A World Without Finance
Charles Hugh Smith

We will enter a world without finance, and it will be a better world, for the economy will no longer be in thrall to the derangement and inequality of parasitic, predatory finance.

A world without finance is currently unimaginable, because finance is now synonymous with financialization. In this context, finance no longer refers to longstanding mechanisms that grease commerce such as short-term commercial debt (purchase orders, etc.) or long-term debt to finance the construction of new assets (mortgages, etc.) 
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02.14.23- Don't Let Balloons Distract You From The Global Economic Collapse
Fabian Ommar

We’re only two months into 2023, and so much water has already passed under the bridge. All I can say is, what a year this is shaping up to be. Is it just me, or does anyone else feels the same? 

To anyone still involved with the Chinese balloon drama, let me remind you that the U.S. (and the entire world, in fact) was invaded by China long ago. Products and dopamine-inducing apps, farmland acquisition, shady investments, and government collusion in some places and continents, and so on are all evidence of this. Read More

02.13.23- What Crappy Beer Demand Tells Us About The Economy
Rachel Premack

U.S. beer shipment to wholesalers declined 14.1% in December 2022 compared to the year prior, according to a Wells Fargo note published on Jan. 27. Compared to 2020, shipping volume is down 19.4%. We saw the lowest volume since 2012 in December. 

It’s not as clear as saying that people simply don’t want beer, or that consumers are becoming more budget-conscious. There are a few factors afoot here. Read More

02.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: One Flew Over the Greenie's Nest
Larry C. Johnson

Western societies are in a race to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Greenies claim technology currently exists to reach net zero, is affordable, and is not an economy wrecker. The elites want a first-generation green power grid relying on renewable wind turbines, solar panels, and power storage batteries to entirely phase out fossil fuel or nuclear power plants. Also, replacing the internal combustion engine with electric motors powered by lithium batteries. The problem with renewable energy is it is intermittent and not scalable.  Read More

02.10.23- Money and recession
Alasdair Macleod

How reliable is the link between money supply growth and the economic outlook?

Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for US dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the US economy.

But monetary growth, or the lack of it, doesn’t only affect GDP, but a large element of economic activity which is not included in it, principally financial activities, and the acquisition of assets such as property. Read More

02.09.23- Crash Alert
John Rubino

Time to raise serious cash? 

Ignore that low unemployment rate. Most forward-looking stats are screaming recession, and the epicenter of the coming quake is plastic. From CNBC:

  • U.S. credit card debt jumps 18.5% and hits a record $930.6 billion highs

  • For most Americans, inflation and rising interest rates are a one-two punch.
  • On the heels of another rate hike this week by the Federal Reserve, credit card annual percentage rates are already near 20%, on average, and set to climb even higher. At the same time, more consumers are leaning on credit to afford increasingly expensive necessities, like food and rent.Read More

02.08.23- Harry Dent Doubles Down: Major Crash for Equities in Third Phase,
While Bitcoin Skyrockets to $780K

Daniela Cambone

View Video

02.07.23- Where’s Oil Going?

Where are oil prices going? That’s one of the most frequently asked questions (and most difficult to answer) in markets today.

A bull case can be made on the basis of persistent inflation, shortages due in part to the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration’s war on oil and natural gas and the reopening of China after the worst of the pandemic. Read More

02.06.23- Lose-Lose
James Howard Kunstler

“The White House has taken the entire West in such a direction and speed of triumphalism, arrogance and “egregious” imbecility that there is no going back or reversal possible without a total defeat of the official narrative and the consequent eternal shame.” — Hugo Dionisio

The New York Times — indicted this week as a chronic purveyer of untruths by no less than their supposed ally, The Columbia Journalism Review — is lying to you again this morning. Read More

02.04.23- Don’t Be Stupid – The U.S. Economy Actually LOST 2.5 Million Jobs Last Month
Michael Snyder

I can’t take it anymore.  Fake numbers that are released by the government get turned into fake news by the corporate media, and many Americans don’t even realize that they are being conned.  Major news outlets all over the country are breathlessly trumpeting the “blockbuster jobs report” as if it is a sign from heaven that good economic times are ahead.  We are being told that the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs last month, but that isn’t true.  Sadly, the truth is that the U.S. economy actually lost 2.5 million jobs in January.  Yes, you read that correctly.  So how in the world does a loss of 2.5 million jobs become a “gain” of 517,000 jobs? Read More

02.03.23- You Think the Global Economy Is Brightening? Beware: The Big Hit Is Yet to Come
Dr. Thorsten Polleit

Relief is spreading among economic analysts and stock market experts. Energy prices are decreasing noticeably. The energy supply this winter seems secure; in Europe, government support for consumers and producers is available if needed. China is turning away from its zero-covid policy, and production is ramping up again. High goods price inflation is still a major concern for consumers and producers, but central banks are delivering at least some interest rate hikes to hopefully reduce currency devaluation. So should we bid farewell to crisis and recession worries? Unfortunately, no. Read More

02.02.23- Legendary ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry issues an ominous warning after the latest stock market rally: ‘Sell.’
Will Daniel

After a dismal 2022, the stock market has had a red-hot start to the year, with the S&P 500 soaring over 6% in January and tech stocks having their best month since 2001. But Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager best known for predicting and profiting from the collapse of the housing market in 2007 and 2008, is predicting a dark turn.

“Sell,” he wrote in a one-word, since-deleted tweet on Tuesday. The missive came just hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its latest interest rate decision, and Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated press conference. Read More

02.01.23- Cardboard box demand plunging at rates unseen since the Great Recession
Rachel Premack

Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data released by the American Forest & Paper Association and Fibre Box Association on Friday.

It’s the latest indicator that consumer demand is eroding following the pandemic. Dwindling savings, inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession may all be swaying consumers to spend less. Read More

01.31.23- Markets Haven't Accounted for
an Escalation in Ukraine

Clint Siegner

It will soon be a year since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The U.S. has provided Ukraine nearly $100 billion in weapons, cash, and humanitarian assistance. The sanctions imposed on Russia may be even tougher now than during the Cold War.

Despite these things, investors in the U.S. don't seem to be paying much attention to rising geopolitical risks at present.

That may soon change. Read More

01.30.23- People We Should Know:
Nouriel Roubini

John Rubino

Credible gloom and doom

Nouriel Roubini has one of those resumes that inspire skepticism -- because no one should be able to pack that much high-level work into one lifetime. He has, at various times, been associated with Harvard, the IMF, the Fed, the World Bank, the Council of Economic Advisors, the US Treasury, New York University, and (apparently his day job) Roubini Macro Associates LLC, an economic consultancy.Read More

 

01.28.23- We're Close To A Death Spiral In The Financial System
John Rubino

View Video

01.27.23- Collapsing Real Estate Market
James Wesley Rawles

Today, in lieu of my usual economics and investing news and commentary, I’d like to briefly expound a bit on my view of the collapsing real estate market in the United States.

I’ll begin by mentioning something published in Investment Watchblog that I found linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: US Median Home Price Drops 12% in Six Months – Largest Drop Since 2009. Please take the time to read that article. Read More

01.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: In Ukraine, it appears America will soon be arming both side’s combatants
Andrea Widburg

I happen to be one who believes that the escalating war in Ukraine is entirely Biden’s fault, that the current Ukraine government is completely corrupt, and that the entire thing, which has seen tens of thousands of Ukrainian deaths and the destruction of large swaths of that country, has become a profitable boondoggle for politicians and military contractors. Call me cynical or naïve, but that’s where I am. I also think the whole enterprise has taken on a truly hallucinatory quality, exacerbated by the news today: Putin is negotiating to buy abandoned American weapons from Afghanistan while Biden is sending 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. We will have armed both sides to the battle. Read More

01.25.23- Ted Oakley; Expect A Mass Die-Off Of Public Companies Later This Year
Adam Taggart

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01.24.23- 2023: Year of the New Gold Bull
Greg Guenthner

Last week, we discussed the market forces behind the 2022 growth meltdown.

Now that we’ve shaken off the cobwebs, it’s time to look ahead and focus on the stocks and sectors with the best potential to take the lead in 2023’s first quarter – and beyond. Unfortunately, many investors are going to miss these opportunities. Read More

01.23.23- So What’s Replacing the Dollar?
Charles Hugh Smith

We’ve all heard about how the dollar’s days as the world’s leading reserve currency are numbered. Much of the world wants a new monetary system that isn’t based on the dollar.

The U.S. weaponization of the dollar against nations it deems hostile, like Russia, has only intensified the calls for change. What exactly will replace the dollar standard is a matter of debate, but many agree that it’s just a matter of time. It may not happen overnight, but it will happen. Read More

01.21.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: World Economic Forum Calls for Destruction of America’s Middle Class
Kurt Nimmo

Sociopath Chrystia Freeland argues middle class needs to embrace poverty.

I have said this for a long time. The global elite hate you, they want to destroy your standard of living, and reduce you to a serf, a powerless and dispensable carbon emitter.

I dare entitled, no doubt wealthy (she’s in government, after all) Chrystia Freeland to walk the streets of Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and other cities destroyed by the global elite, and try to sell this recipe for poverty and misery. Freeland would not make it out alive in many neighborhoods. Read More

01.20.23- Say’s Law and Macroeconomic Ignorance
Alasdair Macleod

Probably the greatest error in modern economics was the abandonment of Say’s law, otherwise known as the law of the markets. In a nutshell, it demonstrated that through the division of labour, production is firmly linked to consumption, and the former is tied to the latter through the medium of money and credit.

While there are variations in production outputs of individual goods, in free markets there can never be a general glut. It was this that Keynes had to disprove in order to create a role for the state, intervening to make up for the supposed deficiencies of free markets. While reasoned analysis shows that Keynes failed to disprove Say’s law, he managed to convince the mainstream establishment that he had actually succeeded. Read More

01.19.23- The Global Outlook For 2023
Dennis Miller

January is time to look ahead for the year. Sadly, way too much depends on the Federal Reserve and world central banks.

Michael Howell writes:

“It has been a bleak year for many investors. Global investors have lost $23tn of wealth…so far in 2022. …. That is equivalent to 22 per cent of global gross domestic product” Read More

01.18.23- All Quiet (Panic) on the Western Front
Pepe Escobar

Lights! Action! Reset!

The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday.

The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb. Read More

01.17.23- The easiest 833x return
you will ever make

Simon Black

At precisely 8:13PM eastern time on the evening of October 28, 2003, a lonely 19-year old schoolboy took to the Internet to complain about the latest love interest who had left him dejected and angry.

“Jessica,” he wrote to the precisely zero people who paid attention to his LiveJournal blog, “is a bitch. I need to think of something to take my mind off her. I need to think of something to occupy my mind. Easy enough, now I just need an idea.” Read More

01.16.23- A Long Way to Fall: Stock Market’s Bottom is Hardly Even Within Sight
David Haggith

When several of the big money-driving voices in financial media and major financial institutions start saying the same thing I am, I start to wonder about myself. Or is it just becoming that obvious now? Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are now saying the stock market is delusional and is headed for a much deeper fall. Read More

01.14.23- Real Wages Fall for the Twenty-First Month as Rent and Food Prices Keep Rising
Ryan McMaken

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in fifteen months. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 6.5 percent year over year during December, before seasonal adjustment. That’s the twenty-second month in a row of inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2-percent inflation target, and it’s fifteen months in a row of price inflation above 6.0 percent. Read More

01.13.23- We Won’t Be Fooled Again – Inflation Is Most Definitely Not “Under Control”
Michael Snyder

Inflation is going down!  Let’s all celebrate!  We all knew that when the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates it would have an impact on inflation.  Higher rates have caused a new housing crash, they have crushed the tech industry, and they have sparked the biggest wave of layoffs that we have seen since the Great Recession.  We have entered a significant economic downturn, so it was inevitable that the annual rate of inflation would start to moderate.  But as I will explain below, that doesn’t mean that inflation is now “under control”.  The real rate of inflation is much higher than we are being told, and people all over the country are being absolutely crushed by the rising cost of living. Read More

01.12.23- Dip in Mortgage Rates Not Slowing Housing Bust 2: Mortgage Lenders Sing the Blues
Wolf Richter

It just keeps getting worse. 

Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales volume will be. Existing home sales that closed in November already plunged by 35% year-over-year, the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines, making for a historic plunge. And mortgage applications went into the wrong direction from there, despite the dip in mortgage rates. Read More

01.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Lemmings Will be Lemmings:
Awaken or Slumber

Nicholas Creed

As my UK trip draws to a close, I am struck by what a bizarre string of experiences I have had throughout this visit.

I have been overwhelmed with joy upon being reunited with family and friends. Yet I have had and have no more tears to shed. I have felt my soul being nourished from hugging loved ones, being close to them once again, enjoying their company, and reminiscing about the little things. Read More

01.10.23- Scammed!
Jeffrey Tucker

The incredible meltdown of FTX and the Bernie Madoff scam long before should tell us a thing or two about how much the government will protect us against scams. It does not and will not.

Too often, government itself is part of that scam.

That certainly seems true in the above two cases. And perhaps this is why Sam Bankman-Fried is being treated with kid gloves, with his $250 million bail not involving one bit of cash. Read More

01.09.23- It’s Worse Than it Looks: Beneath the Surface the Bottom is Falling Out, and People are Jumping out of Windows
David Haggith

Surveying just the news that started this year in The Daily Doom, things look bad for the US economy. Worse still, if you dig beneath the few rosy headlines that did greet the year in lighter tones, the bottom falls out quickly, as it does when stepping out of a high-rise window.

This weekend, for example, I’m going to be working on a deep dive in one of my special posts for patrons into the confusing swirl of conflicting employment news that sent stocks soaring skyward today. It was really far shakier than the market wants to believe it heard. Read More

01.07.23- Is There an
Economic Bomb Cyclone Ahead?

Christopher Chantrill

First of all, nobody knows what will happen next with the economy. On the one hand our Democratic friends seem to think that their omnibus spending bill and glorious Inflation Reduction Act are already steering us to the green and pleasant land of woke Jerusalem.

But then you have Jeffrey A. Tucker saying that the end of negative interest rates ain’t gonna be a walk in the park. Sez he:

Most people under the age of 40 have no financial experience in a world of positive interest rates for most dates of maturity… When Ben Bernanke pushed his new policy [back in 2008], he was flipping all economic and financial logic on its head. Read More

01.06.23- Here’s What Happens in 2023
Brian Maher

The calendar has scrolled to 2023… for good … or ill.

As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to hazard our annual market forecast — such as it is.

So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage, blow away the dust… and gaze for images of the year ahead.

How will the economy fare in 2023? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Oil? Bitcoin? Read More

01.05.23- Recession Or Inflation...
Pick Yer Poison!

Bill Blain

“Sometimes the stock market is quite investment-oriented, and other times it’s almost totally a casino, a gambling parlor — and that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years, encouraged by Wall Street.”

What is the Fed really thinking? They will probably er on the side of lower rates to avoid recession, running the risk of entrenched wage growth. Soft landings are the stuff of myth! How it effects the global economy is critical. Read More

01.04.23- Dollar’s demise about to
explode Asia’s 2023

William Pesek

Negative growth, high inflation, unsustainable debt and poison politics in the US will all drive investors to dump the dollar

TOKYO — If you want to know how worried Asian officials are over a sliding US dollar this year, look no further than the frantic scene at Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters. Read More

01.03.23-Michael Burry: "US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike"
Tyler Durden

In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen's resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be "a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds." Read More

01.02.23- Free-Market Capitalism is the Next American Economy
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.

America is in the midst of an identity crisis, and it’s probably not the kind you’d think. Our nation is wrecked by an abysmal economy and unhappy people losing confidence in their country. In such unhappiness, people on both sides of the political aisle too often propose “solutions” that grant the government more control of our lives, even though that control is usually the source of the problem.

The American experiment has paved the way for millions to escape poverty and build a better life via a free-market system with a constitutional republic that encourages innovation and results in more human flourishing than ever before. Read More

 

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