07.12.25- What Passive Investing Has Done To Our Retirement
Dan Amoss

There’s a famous economic law you may not have heard of, but it is valuable to understand.

It goes like this: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

It’s called Goodhart’s Law, named after British economist Charles Goodhart. He meant it as a warning to policymakers. Read More

07.11.25- The Homeownership Rate Is Lower Now than it Was 45 Years Ago
Ryan McMaken

For more than 80 years—since the days of the New Deal—the US federal government has embarked on a wide variety of policies that were ostensibly intended to increase the homeownership rate. The underlying idea—a rather dubious one, at that—has always been that homeownership is a proxy for economic prosperity. 

It’s debatable whether or not such reforms have ever actually worked to increase the homeownership rate, though. In 1930, at the very beginning of the Great Depression, the homeownership rate was 44 percent. During the thirties, the federal government adopted policies that created Fannie Mae and ushered in the era of the 30-year fixed mortgage. Read More

07.10.25- The Root of America’s Problems [Podcast]
James Hickman

In today’s podcast, we take on a provocative question from a reader: What is the single root cause behind America’s decline?

You might think it’s overspending, or the Federal Reserve, or career politicians. But what if it’s something even more fundamental… like letting just anyone vote? Read More

07.09.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Tucker and Saagar Enjeti on the Dangerous New Developments
in Pam Bondi’s Epstein Cover-Up
Tucker Carlson

View Video

07.08.25- Are Markets Marching Toward A ‘Wile E. Coyote Moment’?
jesse Felder

Ruchir Sharma writes, “American retail investors are all in, buying at an unusually aggressive pace this year. Roughly half of US household wealth is now invested in stocks — breaking the record set during the dotcom bubble of 2000…

To the old line — never bet against the US consumer — might be added a new twist. Never bet against the US retail investor.” Read More

07.07.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Cage Match
James Howard Kunstler

“. . . [W}e are closing in on more disclosures and fixing past wrongs to personnel. We’re making sure this is done correctly. But it’s absolutely getting done.” Dan Bongino, Deputy Director, FBI

Who knows what to believe these days? Well, what would you expect after years, even decades, of anti-reality operations by everyone from the CIA to The New York Times to Harvard U. Is it any wonder that reality-optionality is making the people both apathetic and insane?Read More

07.05.25- Tokenization Begins: A New Way to Buy Private Shares
Davis Wilson

Want to own shares of SpaceX or OpenAI?

How about owning shares of other real-world innovators shaping the future?

As of today, buying shares in these private companies outright isn’t possible for most investors. Read More

07.04.25- What is True Freedom & Liberty? Where Does it Come From?
Jackie Juntti

This weekend we are hearing a lot about FREEDOM and LIBERTY. Many speeches shall be made and columns written about the *Founding Fathers* and the Patriots who gave their lives so that we may live in FREEDOM and LIBERTY in America. Many columns will be written quoting the *Founding Fathers*.

I am asking readers to really examine just how free are Americans today after all those lives that have been given in the quest for Liberty and Freedom. We hear so much about the sacrifices that the Founding Fathers and the American soldiers sacrificed on our behalf. In spite of all those lives – American falls deeper into Slavery and loss of Liberty than ever before.  Read More

07.03.25- After 50 Years of US-Government-Sponsored Housing Finance: Why Are Houses So Unaffordable?
Alex J. Pollock

The US housing finance system is unique in the world by being dominated by the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. GSEs are a really poor and dangerous idea. By definition, they combine private ownership of their stock with special privileges, including most importantly a guarantee of their obligations by the government, i.e. the taxpayers. This guarantee is said to be only “implicit,” but is fully real, as history demonstrates. It naturally leads to overexpansion of mortgage credit and inflation of house prices. Read More

07.02.25- What should Investors expect from declining US residential Property & Stock Prices?
Marc Faber

Randall W. Forsyth explained in a recent Barrons article that Trump Has a Big, Beautiful Reason to Push for Lower Rates. According to Forsyth, “The Federal Reserve held its policy interest rate steady this past week and maintained its median projection of two quarter-point rate cuts by year end, exactly as expected. Read More

07.01.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: The Bull is Strong, but the Economy is Weak
David Haggith

When I say, “the bull market is strong,” I only mean the market for selling words that are complete “bull____” is strong. The stock analyst bull that goes in your ears about the economy is reeks strongly these days. The economic reality, itself, is weak. And, for that reason, the resurrected bull market in stocks is but a ghost of the bull market that died for the NASDAQ, starting back in December, 2024, from where it fell 24%; and the bull run that nearly died for the S&P, which fell 19% from Feb. 19, 2025 (while the Dow fell only 16% from 2024). Read More

06.30.25- Trust Lost In Banking System
& US Dollar
Dr. Mark Thornton

View Video

06.28.25- Why Gold Based International
Trade Is A No Brainer
Peter Schiff

With the recent strikes on Iran, the United States’ role on the international stage has become a much larger topic of conversation. No one seems sure of the America that will emerge from the tension between historically serving as the world’s policeman and more recently desiring to step back. Even this step back would still be holding onto many of the most important bulwarks of international security. One of these bulwarks of strategic importance is the dollar’s role as most of the world’s exchange currency of choice. Read More

06.27.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Why Too Much Optimism
is Keeping America Down
James Hickman

It’s probably unexpected for me to say this, but Arnold Schwarzenegger perfectly summed up one of the biggest reasons America cannot solve its problems right now.

On a recent Jimmy Kimmel appearance, Kimmel tried to bait Schwarzenegger into slamming Donald Trump, but Schwarzenegger took a different approach.

He acknowledged that America has a ton of problems. But he told the audience to “relax,” because when he came to America in 1968, “it was a disaster.” Read More

06.26.25- Buying as the World Burns
Adam Sharp

Amid the global chaos, something strange is happening with stocks.

…They’re up.

In Israel, for example, the stock market has soared to all-time highs. The iShares Israel ETF (EIS) is up a whopping 53% over the past year. Read More

06.25.25- The Great Bond Scam: Wall Street’s Biggest Myth Exposed
Nick Giambruno

There’s a ridiculous and pervasive notion in finance that US Treasuries are “risk free.”

People repeat it without thinking. Financial institutions build portfolios around it. And for decades, the world has blindly accepted this trope as gospel. Read More

06.24.25- The Real Estate Recession
You Haven’t Heard About (Yet)
Peter Reagan

Real estate and construction are considered bellwethers of the overall economy. Recently they’re not looking good – and this isn’t an isolated issue. It’s a warning sign of a crisis that could ripple through the entire economy…

The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of American families own their home – and for most, it’s their single biggest financial asset (as well as where they sleep). Home equity represents a tremendous share of household net worth – about half for the typical family! More of our national wealth is tied up in housing than any other single asset class. Read More

06.23.25- Closing The Strait Of Hormuz Will Be A Nightmare Scenario For The Global Economy
Michael Snyder

Our way of life depends on cheap energy.  If you remove cheap energy from the equation, our society will be thrown into a state of chaos.  The Iranians know that closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most powerful forms of leverage that they possess, because the world is deeply dependent on the oil that travels through that waterway.  We don’t know exactly how this crisis will play out, because the Strait of Hormuz has never been closed in modern times.  But as I pointed out earlier this month, we were warned that Israel would attack Iran, the global price of oil would rise, and the increase in the price of oil would be blamed on Israel.  And that is precisely what has happened.  Israel has attacked Iran, the global price of oil has been increasing, and many are blaming Israel for what has transpired.  Unfortunately, the truth is that this crisis is just getting started. Read More

06.21.25- Basel III Changes the Rules. The Rio Reset Changes the Game
Peter Reagan

Basel III was supposed to stabilize the global financial system from within, to make international trade safer. But after 15 years of delay, BRICS has done something radical. They’ve built a better system from scratch – so do our rules even matter?

Next month, the global financial system will see two very different updates. Now, this is probably just a coincidence. But still, it's a useful coincidence. Because it showcases two very different approaches to problem-solving. Read More

06.20.25- Central-Banking Myths that Fed Critics Believe
Ryan McMaken

There are many reasons for disliking the Federal Reserve, and readers often encounter a wide variety of these reasons in articles and commentary by financial writers and economists. It is often the case, however, that many critics of the Fed attack the Fed for the wrong reasons.

For example, one will often see Fed critics attacking the Fed for not lowering interest rates enough or soon enough. This is just one variation of the idea that the Fed is not doing things “correctly.”  Read More

06.18.25- Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Fears Surge After Former Iranian Minister
Threatens Transit Restrictions
Tyler Durden

JPMorgan's forecast of triple-digit Brent crude prices could soon be a reality as conflict risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. The waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, remains one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Any disruption, particularly amid growing military escalation between Iran and Israel, could impact energy flows worldwide and send prices soaring. Read More

06.17.25- WW3 Is… Bullish?
Adam Sharp

Ballistic missiles zipping into major cities. Sabotage teams on the prowl behind enemy lines. Drones buzzing menacingly above foxholes.

Oil refineries ablaze. Ammo depots bursting into mini-mushroom clouds. Air defense systems exploding spectacularly.

The world has never seen war footage like this. Read More

06.16.25- $100? $200? $300? – How Catastrophically High Will The Price Of Oil Go When Iran Closes The Strait Of Hormuz?
Michael Snyder

It is being reported that Iran is seriously considering closing the Strait of Hormuz.  We don’t know how high the price of oil will go if that happens, because it has never happened before.  Of course I think that it would be safe to assume that the price of oil would rapidly surpass the $100 mark, and if it stays there for an extended period of time that would be enough to push us into a recession all by itself.  But if the price of oil were to surpass the $200 mark and stay there, I believe that could be enough to actually push us into an economic depression.  Shockingly, as you will see below, there is one official in the Middle East that is convinced that the price of oil could go up to $300 a barrel if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.  Needless to say, that would be a nightmare scenario. Read More

06.14.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: New IRS Commissioner Once Sponsored A Bill To Eliminate
The Agency Entirely
Tyler Durden

The U.S. Senate confirmed former Missouri Rep. Billy Long on Thursday as the new commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service in a 53–44 vote, ending months of temporary leadership at an agency under intense scrutiny and facing deep staffing cuts, according to AP.

Long, a Republican who served in Congress from 2011 to 2023, once sponsored a bill to eliminate the IRS entirely. Read More

06.13.25- The CAPE Crusader Unveils a Bubble
MN Gordon

On May 12, the professional tea leaf readers at Goldman Sachs Research predicted the S&P 500 would increase by about 11 percent to 6,500 over the next 12 months. We’re one month into the forecast, and the S&P 500 has increased from 5,844 to 6,045 – or by about 3.4 percent.

Goldman’s optimism was based on reduced U.S.-China tariff anxieties, and better than expected economic growth forecasts. The bank’s economists put the chance of a U.S. recession at 35 percent over the coming 12 months, with GDP to expand by 1.6 percent. Read More

06.12.25- AI is Going to Generate a MASSIVE Boom in Hard Assets
Graham Summers, MBA

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is going to ignite a boom in hard assets.

As I’ve laid out in the last few articles, the AI revolution is moving into its next phase: physical AI. This is the phase in which AI software is integrated with physical hardware (robots, appliances, automobiles, etc.).

Some recent developments:

1. Tesla (TSLA) is preparing to launch its robotaxis: Full-Self Driving (FSD) cars that can transport a passenger anywhere, even through pedestrian-clogged cities Read More

06.11.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Who Has Been Spending Enormous Amounts Of Money To Equip The Protesters In Los Angeles With Brand New Riot Gear?
Michael Snyder

If the protests in Los Angeles are supposed to be peaceful, why is brand new riot gear being trucked in and given to the protesters?  And why isn’t this making front page news all over the country?  First of all, protesters only need riot gear if riots are going to break out.  Secondly, it is becoming clear that someone purchased large quantities of riot gear in advance.  So who funded those purchases, and who knew that riots would erupt in Los Angeles at this specific time?  If corporate news outlets in this country were still employing real journalists, those are the types of questions that those journalists would be asking. Read More

06.10.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: The Numbers Are Breaking down, but What they Mean and Where They Are Heading Looks Worse
David haggith

Today, we dig down into the job numbers, the GDP numbers, inflation numbers and leading economic indicators. What a mess!

Belaboring the Job Market

After writing about the faulty economic numbers put out by the federal government (or not put out on time as if they were hiding them or are figuring out how to continue forward while downsizing), we have another report that came out on Friday that shows the job numbers are less positive than they initially sounded, as I suggested earlier. On Thursday, I quoted Gregory Mannarino who said the job numbers could be seen as a “eulogy” for the still-born Trump economy or as “economic hospice,” so I promised to dig into the misfiring numbers in this Deeper Dive. Read More

06.09.25- The Truth About
Fort Knox and Gold Leasing
James Rickards

Whatever happened to the Donald Trump and Elon Musk visit to Fort Knox?

You’ll recall the buzz from earlier this year. Trump and Musk loudly announced they were going to visit the U.S. bullion depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky to make sure the U.S. gold was actually there. The press was invited to tag along. Musk claimed that his DOGE team was ready to “audit” the gold bars to see that there were none missing. I had my own views on the announcement (described below) but I certainly agreed this would be the mother of all photo ops. Read More

06.07.25- And Now. for Something Entirely Different: The DogeFather in Exile
MN Gordon

We wanted Elon Musk to succeed. We were pulling for his full triumph. He’s blasted countless satellites into orbit. He put EVs on the road. He saved free speech on social media. If anyone could cut $2 trillion in annual waste, he’s the guy.

The task for DOGE was simple enough. Musk would apply the disruptive magic of Silicon Valley to the grim halls of Washington. He’d shutter all the useless agencies that specialize in pointless minutia and archaic laws and regulations. He’d eliminate waste and make the government more efficient. Why not? Read More

06.06.25- ‘Something to Behold’: Silver Miners Explode
Adam Sharp

It was a beautiful day for silver investors.

The moment we’ve been waiting for approaches.

Poor man’s gold broke out to a 13-year high over $36 per ounce, up more than 4% as of 9:30 am.

And the miners? Oh boy… Read More

06.05.25- Demand in the Housing Market Just Got Even Worse, as Supply Piles Up
Wolf Richter

Waiting for lower prices, higher incomes, and lower rates.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell again in the latest reporting week, having collapsed by 39% from the same week in 2019, according to data by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. Mortgage applications are an early indicator of demand in the housing market, preceding “pending sales” and “closed sales” for this period. Read More

06.04.25- Americans Are Dangerously Vulnerable To A Stock Market Correction
Ted Oakley

View Video

06.03.25- Space Is The Most Undervalued Industry
In The World
Rainer Zitelmann

The most undervalued industry in the world is the space industry. It is particularly unappreciated in Europe, which has now fallen hopelessly behind the United States and China. The US carried out 153 launches last year, China 68 and Europe three.

The science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke wrote back in 1977: “The impact of satellites on the entire human race will be at least the same impact as the advent of the telephone in so-called developed societies”. And he was right. Satellite mega-constellations such as Starlink, Qianfan, Kuiper, and Sat Net will ensure that the third of the world’s population that does not currently have access to the internet will soon be connected. Read More

06.02.25- Ray Dalio Is Predicting
A Financial Crisis…Again.
Lance Roberts

Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the “deficit has become critical.”

” “It’s like … I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and I can’t tell you the exact time. I would say that if we’re really looking over the next three years, to give or take a year or two, that we’re in that type of a critical, critical situation.” Read More

05.31.25- Traffic At U.S. Ports Has Absolutely Plummeted Compared To Last Year, And A New Crisis Threatens To Turn U.S. Relations With China Into A Massive Dumpster Fire
Michael Snyder

Did you know that we just witnessed the largest decline in U.S. imports in the entire history of our nation last month?  Unfortunately, things didn’t get any better this month.  In fact, during the final week of May imports at major ports on the west coast are down by almost a third compared to last year.  This is going to have a dramatic impact on our economy in the months ahead, and meanwhile a new crisis with China has just erupted. Read More

05.30.25- The Gold Bull Market Has Just Begun
Adam Sharp

Cycles surround us. In markets, astronomy, and our lives.

Every day is a circadian cycle for us all. Our bodies move through phases based on our exposure to light or darkness.

Markets are also remarkably cyclical, responding to the environment around them. Interest rates, regulation, monetary policy and investor psychology all play important roles. Read More

05.29.25- Trump’s Monetary Reset: Is a Gold-Backed Dollar on the Horizon?
Nick Giambruno

“More and more people are asking if a gold standard will end the financial crisis in which we find ourselves. The question is not so much if it will help or if we will resort to gold, but when.

All great inflations end with the acceptance of real money—gold—and the rejection of political money—paper.” – Ron Paul

Two powerful catalysts are driving the coming monetary reset. Read More

05.28.25- The Multi-Trillion Dollar Question Investors Need to Answer
Graham Summers, MBA

Enjoy the rally and blow off top in stocks, because as we keep warning, the Everything Bubble could very well blow up sometime in 2026.

As I outlined in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy the bond bubble is THE definitive bubble of our lifetimes. Every other bubble whether it be the Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble, etc. has been a derivative of the almighty bond bubble that was generated during the super cycle bull market in bonds that went from 1982 to 2020. Read More

05.27.25- A Dying Man Will Try Any Medicine
Chris MacIntosh

Boy, oh boy are things… um… interesting. I almost miss the days of green-haired teenage girls with hairy armpits gluing themselves to the road to make the weather better.

Now we have craziness at the international trade level. At its core, it’s all politics.

The now dead George Carlin had a skit where he told us why he doesn’t vote. To quote: Read More

05.26.25- I Sold Almost All My Stocks – “I’ve Seen This Party Before”
Jim Rogers

In this exclusive interview with James Connor Rogers reveals why he’s exited most of his global equity positions and is now holding massive amounts of cash, gold, and silver. He explains why today’s global economic optimism masks deeper problems: a global debt crisis, unsustainable speculation, and a dangerous shift away from free trade. Read More

05.24.25- The Rio Reset's New Architecture Rests on an Old Foundation
Peter Reagan

What if BRICS doesn’t need a new currency to replace the dollar? What if the foundation for a post-dollar system is already in place — quietly powering trade, lending, and liquidity flows beneath the surface?

If you're familiar with my original Rio Reset article, then you already know what's going on, If you're not, here's a brief recap: Read More

05.23.25- America's Dire Fiscal Condition
Michael Pento

We find it mandatory to now put a bright spotlight on America's dire fiscal condition.

The National debt rose from less than $6 trillion in 2000 to over $37 trillion today. Our debt is now 720% greater than our annual revenue. The Nation's annual deficit for fiscal 2025 is projected to be $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP. The US Government now spends more on interest payments on the National Debt ($1.11 Trillion) than National Defense ($1.10 Trillion). The CATO Institute projects that the US government will pay $2 trillion in interest payments on all this debt in the next 10 years. Read More

05.22.25- Economic Growth vs. the Stock Market
Peter Schiff

As the stock market climbs out of its tariff-induced April slump, many are hailing the return of a strong economy. Investors should be wary of unbridled optimism, since the Fed is still liable to fire up the money printers.

Most financial commentators are of the view that increases in the stock market translate to an increase in economic growth. The reason is because the increase in stock prices lifts consumer and business optimism, which, in turn, boosts consumer and business demand for goods and services. This, in turn, strengthens the economy. But is it valid to hold that what drives the economy is the demand for goods and services? Read More

05.21.25- Is Japan’s Financial System On The Verge Of Collapsing?
Michael Snyder

Is the long-awaited implosion of the Japanese financial system beginning? Japanese bond yields are spiking dramatically, Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is now above 230 percent, the Japanese economy has started contracting, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just publicly stated that the financial condition of his nation is worse than the financial condition of Greece.  When I heard that he had said this, I knew that I had to find his direct quote and share it with all of you… Read More

05.20.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Donald of Arabia
Byron King

“We want two large glasses of lemonade,” said President Donald Trump to the bartender.

“This is a bar for British officers,” replied the diminutive man behind the marble counter.

“That’s alright,” said Trump. “We are not particular.”

After a short, sharp, shouting match, a senior officer walked up and officiously demanded to know, “What’s going on?” Read More

They're Moving the Markets With Lies...
Graham Summers

Who’s telling the truth?

One of the more challenging aspects of today’s stock market is that it is being driven by headlines. And the headlines are not always correct (or honest).

Case in point, throughout the month of April China claimed it was NOT in trade negotiations with the Trump administration. They even claimed this AFTER Chinese officials were seen entering the U.S. Treasury on April 25th 2025. Read More

05.17.25- Yikes. The “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL” tax bill is the opposite of what America needs.
James Hickman

In the year 428 BC, ancient Athenians imposed a special tax called the eisphora that targeted local business investments in the city-state.

It was expensive and highly unpopular among investors. And wealthy Athenians simply stopped investing in local businesses to avoid the tax.

Read More

05.16.25- From Strategic Retreat to Full Retreat
MN Gordon

The Great Trade Tariff Saga of 2025 continues…

On Monday, in a joint statement from Geneva, it was announced that the United States and?China had agreed to a 90-day pause on the?tariffs they had put in place over the last month. In the interim, they are, “Moving forward in the spirit of mutual opening, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect.” Read More

05.15.25- Doug Casey on DOGE, Deficits, and the Coming Financial Earthquake
Doug Casey

International Man: What’s your perspective on the claims Elon Musk and others made about the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) during the campaign, and how would you assess the actual progress they’ve achieved since then?

Doug Casey: I hate to sound pessimistic, because the idea of DOGE was excellent, but it’s not making much in the way of progress. Musk first thought he could cut $2 trillion from the budget. I see how he could say that; it’s a very reasonable estimate. But as he discovered the depth of the resistance, he reduced it to $1 trillion. And now it’s $150 billion—and he’s probably not even going to be able to do that. Read More

05.14.25- The Russell 2000: An Earnings Illusion
Adam Sharp

It may seem odd to hate a stock index. After all, it’s just a model of company shares used by fund managers to build ETFs and mutual funds.

But once you learn the truth about the Russell 2000 small cap index, you just might hate it too.

Today we’re going to explore why the Russell 2000 makes a bad foundation for any investment vehicle. Read More

05.13.25- Wealth Generation and the Market Economy
Frank Shostak

Some economists hold that one cannot trust the market economy, which is seen as inherently unstable. If left free, the market economy could lead to self-destruction. Hence, there is the need for the government and the central bank to manage the economy. Successful management, in this way of thinking, is done by influencing overall spending. Read More

05.12.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The OKC Bombing Sting Operation and the Ford Bronco
Richard Booth

Obscure 302 Report Details Ford Bronco Doing Reconnaissance on Murrah Building

An otherwise obscure FBI 302 report recently sourced from records in the 2004 Terry Nichols State Trial adds an interesting dimension to the theory that the April 19th, 1995 Oklahoma City bombing may have been a sting gone awry.

The memo, which describes a Ford Bronco driving slowly around the Murrah Federal Building at 2:30 A.M. between two to three times — 15 miles per hour, seems innocuous enough. Read More

05.10.25- Why We Can Forget About
“Drill Baby Drill” 
James Hickman

Travis Stice is not one of those rare corporate CEOs who is a household name around the world… like Warren Buffett. But the two share a similar ethos.

Buffett famously quipped, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” which was ultimately a nod to the cyclical nature of markets and the economy. Read More

05.09.25- Debt Spiral, Treasury Market Stress, and a New Financial Order
Doug Casey

International Man: In your view, what role does the Treasury market play in global finance, and how significant is it to the current financial system?

Doug Casey: It’s only important because it exists—but it shouldn’t exist. People think that the Treasury market is part of the cosmic firmament, but there once was a time when the US government had little or no debt outstanding, and the world got by fine without it.Read More

05.08.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Will America Survive?
Paul Craig Roberts

The foreign policy of the United States is in the hands of the least capable, most uninformed, and most reckless morons the American education system has yet produced, and their successors, if any, will be worse.

American aggression toward the world is hidden under a euphemism:  “national defense.”  In past years before  euphemisms took over from reality, the Secretary of Defense was known as the Secretary of War. Read More

05.07.25- Trade in your Big Ships for a Little Junk from China
David Haggith

That is all you need now that trade volumes just fell off the edge of the world where "thar be dragons"--Chinese dragons.

Tariff news out of Trump’s mouth was not what stocks wanted to hear, so their nonsense rally ended today.Read More

05.06.25- Trump-Led Agency Warns America Is Heading for an Economic Hurricane
Peter Reagan

In a generalized way, a nation’s economy is the single most important thing for its citizens. The global economy matters, too – in a general way. But not as much as our local economy. Think about it. If the economy is strong, more people are more likely to be able to easily feed and house…

In a generalized way, a nation’s economy is the single most important thing for its citizens. The global economy matters, too – in a general way. But not as much as our local economy. Read More

05.05.25- "Resistance Is Futile" -
For Both Bulls And Bears
Lance Roberts

“Resistance is futile” was a sentence that struck fear in the hearts of Trekkie fans during “Star Trek: The Next Generation,” specifically in both of the “Best Of Worlds” and “First Contact” episodes. In those episodes, the “Starship Enterprise” crew encountered a species called the “Borg.” The Borg’s primary purpose was to achieve “perfection” by assimilating other beings and technologies into their “hive mind,” known as the “Collective.” They viewed assimilation as a means to expand their collective knowledge, power, and ultimately, their vision of a perfect and harmonious existence. The reason “resistance was futile” was that the centralized control, driven by the Borg Queen, allowed for swift and coordinated actions across vast distances. At the same time, the assimilation process threatened to erase individuality and homogenize the galaxy. Read More

05.03.25- Cracked Shells:
Why Egg Prices Are High
Haley Zaremba

Are rising egg prices a result of monopoly power? As of late, egg prices are taking a central role in the economic narrative with focus groups, and economists decreeing monopolistic “greed” as the prime cause of a sudden upturn in prices. Yet, this must be insufficient to establish why producers’ have—all of a sudden—become immensely greedier, or why they were less greedy in previous years. This central economic narrative—while popular among economists that would like to perpetuate the idea of “the evils of capitalism”—cannot provide us with a real explanation, based in economic theory. Read More

05.02.25- Apollo's Torsten Slok Unveils Timeline For Trade War Fallout
Tyler Durden

The first wave of the trade downturn is already affecting the U.S. West Coast, with the Port of Los Angeles experiencing a sharp decline in containerized imports from Asia, following months of elevated frontloading by U.S. importers. 

For those tracking trade developments in recent weeks, this freight downturn was entirely predictable: Read More

05.01.25- The Recession Begins! GDP Subsides, Inflation Heats up, Jobs Fall into a Pit.
David Haggith

The moves are not big yet, but there are good reasons for that, and they are all in the wrong direction.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP just went from a positive 2.4% annual growth rate to -0.3%. It will, of course, take two consecutive quarters of the “growth” rate coming in below zero for the present quarter to be officially designated as part of a recession, which is always done retroactively after giving lots of time for all the economic revisions to come in. As it stands right now, though, we’re on track for the first quarter of 2025 to be declared the start of a recession. Read More

04.30.25- American Capitalism’s Worst Nightmare
David A. Stockman

Donald Trump’s War on America’s $5.4 trillion of two-way trade with the rest of the planet is surely one of the most senseless acts of state aggression in modern times, if ever. That’s because its predicate—that America’s giant, unsustainable trade deficits are owing to unfair trade—is dead wrong.

And we do mean wrong—as in completely, unequivocally and with no if, ands or buts. Indeed, Trump thinks large trade deficits are prima facie evidence of cheating by our trading partners, yet the evidence debunks that primitive axiom with such alacrity as to literally shutdown the argument. Read More

04.29.30- Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets!
Tsvetana Paraskova

In the bustling heart of global commerce, a perfect storm is brewing. The intricate web of supply chains, already strained by years of geopolitical tensions, labor disputes, and climate-driven disruptions, teeters on the brink of collapse. Container ships languish at overcrowded ports, semiconductor factories idle due to raw material scarcity, and energy shortages cripple manufacturing hubs. From Asia to North America, the flow of goods grinds to a halt. Read More

04.28.25- Did Someone Call The COMEX Bluff?
Peter Schiff

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs. Read More

04.26.25- Sorting Through The Chaos
Doug Casey

View Video

04.25.25- Make Depressions Great Again
MN Gordon

Trade tariff policies continue to drive uncertainty in financial markets. Stocks, bonds, and the dollar itself move to the daily words of Team Trump.

Are extreme tariff policies one of President Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ tactics? Or is the ground shifting beneath the feet of the global economy and financial markets? Read More

04.24.25- Marching Toward a Liquidity Cliff
Matthew Piepenberg

In this lengthy yet substantive/timely discussion with Alex Deluce of Gold Telegraph Conversations, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, leads viewers through the fog, confusion and volatility of recent headlines toward a simple lighthouse. 

In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, seismic geopolitical shifts, de-dollarization trends, extreme market volatility and recessionary reality into a simple lens: It all boils down to an unprecedented national and global debt crisis. Read More

04.23.25- Tesla Misses Across The Board; Slams "Uncertainty" In Automotive Market, But Affirms Affordable Model "Remains On Track"
For H1 2025
Tyler Durden

With everyone's attention turning to Mag7 heavyweight Tesla after hours (full preview here), focus will be on whether outlook is reduced after weaker Q1 sales; other key focus points will be i) robotaxi launch, ii) FSD adoptions in China and Europe and iii) updates on lower priced vehicles/new launches. TSLA stock is down -53% from it’s December highs (-40% YTD) and given all the negative press of late (including ‘code red’ headlines yesterday) leave Goldman thinking that positioning and expectations are very low at this point.Read More

04.22.25- A Crisis Was Ordered Long Ago
George Ford Smith

“The Financial Crisis was a failure of government, not capitalism.”—Peter Schiff, March 2025

“Wall Street got drunk,” President Bush said in 2008, to which Peter Schiff replied, “They did. And the Fed provided the liquor!”

Schiff—who credits his understanding of markets and Austrian economics to his father’s teachings growing up—is renowned for his prediction of the Financial Crisis of 2008, years before the housing market nosedived. His position earned him the scorn and ridicule of almost every other commentator, as seen in this collection of videos, but he never blinked. The market was in trouble, not because of a lack of regulations, but because the government and the Fed were on a fiat money high. Read More

Consequences of the AI Disruption
Adam Sharp

AI is set to usher in a new industrial revolution.

To prepare, I’ve been brushing up on past industrial revolutions, starting with the first one, which took place from around 1750 to 1830.

A few of the more disruptive inventions from this period include: Read More

04.19.25- Trump vs Powell - New Gold-Backed Sound Money Plan Revealed
Judy Shelton

View Video

04.18.25- Potential for War With Iran—and the Financial Shockwaves That Could Follow
Doug Casey

International Man: Tensions between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are reaching a boiling point.

How likely is it that this long-simmering standoff erupts into a full-scale war? Read More

04.17.25- The Catastrophic Consequences of Under-Competence
Charles Hugh Smith

We all understand human error: someone was tired and misread the situation, or they were impatient. We also understand incompetence: the individual simply didn't have the knowledge and experience needed to make the right decisions and take corrective action.

Author Charles Perrow studied organizational weaknesses that generate flawed responses to what he calls "normal accidents," responses that made the situation far worse. In other words, the system itself increases the risks of normal accidents becoming catastrophic accidents.  Read More

04.16.25- These Amps Go Up to Eleven
Jeff Thomas

There’s a marvelous scene in the 1984 movie, This Is Spinal Tap, in which guitarist Nigel Tufnel points out to an interviewer that he chooses Marshall amplifiers because, unlike most amplifiers (with volume knobs that go from one to ten), “These go to eleven… It’s one louder, innit?” The interviewer tries to explain that they’re only numbers, stamped into plastic knobs and don’t represent actual decibels of sound in any way. Read More

04.15.25- Can Trump Really Bring Back Manufacturing To The U.S.?
Peter Reagan

Can Trump really bring U.S. manufacturing back? His bold use of tariffs is already sparking trillion-dollar investments – but rebuilding industry at home comes with massive costs and tradeoffs. We’re already seeing the short-term pain – here’s what comes next… 

One of Donald Trump’s big campaign promises had to do with bringing back manufacturing jobs to the U.S., and for a big portion of the working aged population, maybe especially in the rust belt, that is hugely important. We all saw steel, auto, and other manufacturing and related industries struggling over the last few decades. Read More

04.14.25- Dead Bull Walking
Greg Guenthner

The bull is dead.

But no one’s told your portfolio yet.

Volatility is flaring. Headlines are swinging from panic to euphoria. One day it’s a crash, the next it’s a 10% rally. Every move feels like a trap. Read More

04.12.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Multiple Oncologists Warn: ‘Turbo Cancers Set to Explode’ Among Covid-Vaccinated
Frank Bergman

Several leading oncologists have warned that a devastating “turbo cancer” surge is about to “explode” among people who received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”

Some of the world’s most highly respected cancer experts are sounding the alarm over concerns of the looming health crisis. Read More

04.11.25- China Escalates With 125% Tariff On US Imports, Signals Will "Ignore" Future Retaliation
Tyler Durden

Around the close of Hong Kong trading hours, Beijing retaliated against President Trump's tariffs by hiking levies on U.S. goods to 125%, up from the prior 84%. In a notable shift, the Chinese Communist Party announced it would "no longer respond" to any further tariff increases from Washington. 

As the week concludes, the U.S. and China are locked in a heated, once-in-a-century trade war. Earlier, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional country-specific tariffs for countries that have refrained from taking retaliatory measures—an apparent attempt to isolate China and use tariffs to get Beijing to strike a trade deal. Read More

04.10.25- Trump Triples Down:
A New Warning For Chinese Stocks
Adam Sharp

Over the past six months, we’ve shared many investment ideas.

Most are working out well. Gold, silver, tobacco. Even Brazil is holding up pretty well compared to the rest of the market. We’ve recommended raising cash and limiting exposure to U.S. stocks.

However, there is one investment idea I proposed which needs an update due to recent developments. Read More

04.09.25- China Has An Insidious 6 Point Plan To Defeat Donald Trump And Win The Economic War
Michael Snyder

The Chinese have no intention of giving in to President Trump and are vowing to “fight to the end”.  So that means that an economic war between the number one economy on the entire planet and the number two economy on the entire planet is officially on.  Yesterday, I warned my readers that imports from China were about to be hit with a 104 percent tariff, but because this number had not been reported by the mainstream media yet a lot of people didn’t believe me.  Of course this morning major news outlets all over the globe were using that number.  Here is just one example… Read More

04.08.25- It's a Total Global Bloodbath Today!
David Haggith

The headlines are loud and clear: Stocks are plunging again … relentlessly as the world wakes up to realize the Trump Trade War isn’t going away in mere days and is exacting a very heavy price all over the word but especially in the US. If the morning results hold, the S&P will close the day in a full bear-market crash, joining the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq, which both arrived there last week. Big-money investor and Trump promoter Bill Ackman even said today that we are heading into a “self-induced economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.” Read More

04.07.25- Forget about AI: America is about to be the world leader in socks and underwear 
James Hickman

Governments love to tell you tariffs are about “protection”. But protection from what? More affordable goods? A higher quality of life?

In today’s podcast, we dig into the many, many unforeseen consequences of the new tariff policies. For example: Read More

04.05.25- Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed
John P. Hussman, Ph.D

The U.S. economy and financial markets rest on a house of cards. The faith in a New Era is exemplified by a recent advertisement from Robertson Stephens, which asks “Do you really believe that technology can make hundreds of years of economic rules obsolete? So do we.” Well, count us out. One of the most devastatingly accurate of these economic rules is this: anytime the term “New Era” becomes widely accepted, get the hell out of the stock market. Read More

04.04.25- When Bank of Mom and Dad
Goes Broke
MN Gordon

Rising consumer prices, rising unemployment, and a slowing economy are telltale signs of stagflation. This is the ugly scenario that is unfolding before our very eyes. Where a person must work more to get less. And that’s if they don’t lose their job.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, recently showed consumer prices increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in February. If you exclude food and energy, the PCE price index increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Read More

04.03.25- Tariff Rift
Sean King

President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping import tariffs—what he dubbed “Liberation Day”—has caused the expected ruckus in global financial markets. And rightly so. This isn’t some light policy tweak. It’s a full-blown trade regime reset.

As of April 5, a universal 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the United States will go into effect. Days later, a raft of reciprocal tariffs—as high as 49% on Cambodia and 54% on China—will begin rolling out country by country. Read More

04.02.25- The Rio Reset: Inside the BRICS Scheme to Hotwire the Global Economy
Peter Reagan

The warning signs were there (but most people missed them)

BRICS+ leaders are meeting in Rio de Janiero this summer. Their dedollarization drive has made huge progress over the last two years. Here’s what they’ve accomplished so far – and why the Rio Reset will stun the world…Read More

04.01.25- 30% Market Correction + Recession 'Baked In The Cake'?
Steve Hanke

View Video

03.31.25- Warren Buffett Gets It Wrong
Artis Shepherd

Berkshire Hathaway—the investment holding company run by Warren Buffett for the last sixty years—released its much-awaited annual report in late February. In the report, Buffett himself delved into the topic of capitalism and America’s relationship thereto. Early in the preamble to the report, Buffett hints at the connection between inflation and government malfeasance: Read More

03.29.25- The Dumbest Investment in the World
Bill Bonner

One thing I like about Argentina. They cook with salt. That’s it.’
— Robert Duvall

Well, you never know, do you?

Recall that the Argentines introduced a “century bond’ in 2017. At the time, we were not alone in considering it the ‘dumbest investment in the world.’ Read More

03.28.25- Trump Tariffs Gone Wild
MN Gordon

The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have triggered considerable excitement. Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts have all been whipsawed by the market’s swift up and down movements. No one can seem to stay ahead of President Trump’s ‘make it up as you go’ tariff games.

Trump clarified the rules of the game to reporters in the Oval Office on March 21. Specifically, he intends to be flexible on tariffs when it is to the advantage of American companies. Read More

03.27.25- Global Markets Slide Spooked By Trump Auto Tariffs
Tyler Durden

US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. Read More

03.26.25- Total (Trade) War
Adam Sharp

Around the world, governments are shifting onto trade war footing.

When preparing for financial warfare, nations aim to become as self-reliant as possible. In agriculture, manufacturing, refining, mining, drilling, and more.

The stronger a nation is in these areas, the stronger its negotiating position will be. Read More

03.25.25- Will US Debt Cause
an Economic Crisis?
Frank Shostak

Many economic commentators are of the view that the high level of debt poses a threat to the US economy. The debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 345.7 in Q3 2024 against 130.4 in Q1 1952 (see chart). 

This way of thinking originates in the writings of Irving Fisher who held that a major risk factor is the debt liquidation. According to Fisher, this can occur on account of a shock such as a decline in the stock market. As a result, this is likely to generate a decline in money supply Read More

03.24.25- Commercial Real Estate Is in
Serious Trouble
Douglas French

While the financial press is attempting to cover Trump’s frenetic bipolar tariff policy, the ponderous commercial real estate market continues to deteriorate. Bisnow.com reports, citing CoStar, “US banks reported delinquencies hit 1.57 percent at the end of last year, a rate not seen since the fourth quarter of 2014.”

Putting a number to the percentage, “The 1.57 percent delinquency percentage means more than $47.1B of loans would have been delinquent at the end of the year,” writes Billy Wadsack for Bisnow’s Dallas-Fort Worth bureau. That’s an 88 percent increase from a decade ago. Read More

03.22.25- Trump’s MAGA Policies
of Wealth Destruction
MN Gordon

“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.” 

– John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) Read More

03.21.25- Peace in Ukraine: Investor Implications
Adam Sharp

After 3 terrible years of fighting, the war in Ukraine may finally be nearing its conclusion.

This week Presidents Trump and Putin had a 2+ hour phone call which apparently went well. Both leaders expressed a strong desire to end the war, and more than that, expand bilateral relations. Read More

03.20.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 10 Signs That A Significant Portion Of Our Population Has Gone Nuts
Michael Snyder

Have you noticed that people around you are behaving more erratically?  These days, you just never know what is going to set someone off.  A person may seem relatively normal, but then the moment you express an opinion that they don’t like they totally lose it.  It is almost as if the majority of the population is constantly “on edge” emotionally.  If you are one of those people, you need to understand that nobody is going to agree with you 100 percent of the time.  If I write something that you don’t agree with, that is okay.  And if you say something to me that I don’t agree with, that is okay too.  A free exchange of ideas is so important in our society, but a lot of people don’t seem to understand this. Read More

03.19.25- Tesla’s Existential Threat
Adam Sharp

Tesla shares are now down more than 50% from their all-time high. And as I write this, shares are down about 4% on the day.

In the midst of this market chaos, yesterday a friend texted me, saying, “I’m thinking about buying more Tesla here.”

Historically, big pullbacks in Tesla have turned out to be excellent buying opportunities. But I had to tell him that I don’t believe the risk/reward is favorable here. Read More

03.18.25- Here Are 7 Astonishing Economic Charts That Will Absolutely Blow Your Mind
Michael Snyder

As a nation, we have literally been in the process of committing financial suicide for decades.  Sadly, some people have responded to the new administration’s efforts to get debt levels under control by committing acts of extreme violence.  Our society is deeply addicted to debt and that must stop.  The 7 economic charts that you are about to see are incredibly shocking.  If you know anyone that still does not believe that the United States is in the midst of a long-term economic decline, just show them these charts. Read More

03.17.25- Globalist Games: They Play, We Pay
J.B.Shurk

Canada’s Liberal Party selected central banker Mark Carney to lead the country as prime minister.  

He only recently became a politician, but already he’s sitting at the head of the class!  No worries, though.  He has the kind of résumé all globalists in good standing with Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum would envy.  He ran not only the Bank of Canada, but also the Bank of England.  He’s a central banker extraordinaire!  He loves printing funny money and manipulating markets.  Artificially created inflation is his jam, man! Read More

03.15.25- We Just Got A Big Red
Recession Warning
Peter Reagan

There’s an old curse that supposedly comes from an Eastern country (it could have actually come from a comedy writer, for all I know). The curse is:

“May you live in interesting times.”

As Lenin put it, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Under that philosophy, this has been at least a six-decade week. Things sure are “interesting” right now, and are likely to become even more so… Read More

03.14.25- President Trump's Tariffs: A New Golden Age For American Aluminum Workers
David Bossie

President Donald Trump specialized in shattering conventional wisdom and challenging the status quo on his road to the White House in 2016. To this day, our president believes Americans are getting ripped off by unfair trade practices where country after country has gotten comfortable taking advantage of the United States due to our unparalleled generosity and wealth. So, he’s focused like a laser beam on fair trade and leveling the playing field so our manufacturing workers can compete with foreign competitors and prosper. President Trump has declared that by implementing targeted tariffs on foreign countries that hurt American workers, “our country will be extremely liquid and rich again.” Read More

03.13.25- The Walmart Bubble
Adam Sharp

Recession signals are becoming hard to ignore.

On Monday, JPMorgan economists raised their risk of recession to 40%. Big banks are typically bullish to a fault, so this is noteworthy.

Meanwhile, a recent poll revealed that more than half of Americans have less than $500 in savings. Read More

03.12.25- Trade Wars
James Corbett

We all know the ancient Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times!

Oh, OK, it’s not ancient and it’s not Chinese, but it’s a good curse, nonetheless. And it’s hard to think of a more apt description of 2025 than “interesting.”

It seems like every day this year there’s been a new, blockbuster story to displace yesterday’s blockbuster story from the 24/7 doomscroll feed.

Israel is preparing a “Hell Plan” for Gaza. Read More

03.11.25- “Shipbuilding, Shipbuilding, Shipbuilding” – Half a $Trillion Is in Play
Byron King

Not long ago, I had lunch with someone who currently has over $100 billion (yes, billion with a “b”) outstanding on capital projects.

Through his contracts and spending power, this guy buys steel by the tens of thousands of tons. Along the way, he moves aluminum and copper markets. Beyond basic metals, he procures train cars filled with machinery, electrical equipment and much else. Read More

03.10.25- Futures Slide As Recession Fears Mount, Trump Warns Of Looming "Disruption"
Tyler Durden

US equity futures continue their relentless grind lower, as they trade just off session lows, down more than 1% as the "Trump Dump" selloff continues amid growing concerns about the health of the US economy. As JPM notes this morning "today there is a global de-risking but let’s see if Int’l Eqys outperform on the move lower or if the US can see a relief rally"; so far the answer is a resounding no with both European and Asian stocks tumbling, after Trump declined to rule out a recession due to his policies, pointing to a transition period for the economy. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 1.2% to 5,705 following the worst week for the benchmark index since September, while Nasdaq 100 futures slide 1.1% with all Mag7 stocks sharply lower to start the week. Read More

03.08.25- The Pain Begins
Adam Sharp

Trump’s economic team continues to signal that hard times are coming.

Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, has made a flurry of recent media appearances. And he’s setting expectations low.

Bessent recently admitted to CNBC that America has “become addicted to government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period”.

A detox period, you say? Hmmm. Read More

03.07.25- New US Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico Take Effect
Global Gold Chain

On March 4th, 2025, the Trump administration enacted new import tariffs on goods entering the United States. This briefing summarizes the considerations and implications for cold chain operations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and the wider global trading system. Read More

03.06.25- Brace for Economic Turbulence
Adam Sharp

Throughout recent history, every American President has campaigned on a slogan of change.

But the promised change never arrived. Until now.

Today the bloated federal government is being deflated by President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Read More

03.05.25- This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa
James Hickman

In 2012, Puerto Rico was in the depths of a nearly decade-long recession and looming debt crisis.

The island had lost about 10% of its population— mostly young, educated professionals, i.e., the most lucrative members of its tax base. Read More

03.04.25- The Weirdest, Saddest Recession Indicator I Ever Heard Of
Peter Reagan

All too often, when we talk economics and finance, we neglect the human side of the equation. GDP is about more than percentages – it’s about prosperity and confidence. Unemployment isn’t just a number, it’s real people who’ve lost their primary source of income. With that firmly in mind, today, we explore the saddest recession indicator…

There’s a common lapse in memory that I see regularly among many people that like to get into the numbers in economics and finance (like me), and that is to forget the human side of the issue. Read More

03.03.25- And Now, for Something Entirely DifferentThe Original Matrix - What They Don't Teach You About Money
Tyler Durden

"You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

- Morpheus, The Matrix

What is Money?

Some things in life are so deeply ingrained in our daily existence that we rarely stop to question them. Read More

03.01.25- Stock Market Trembles with Deep Fear over Inflation and Job News
David Haggith

No small changes in the news today, but deep troubles rumbling up toward the surface from times past that will easily be made worse by times coming.

The Dow tumbled, Warren Buffet fled the S&P500 stocks he had been advocating, and the Nasdaq fell off a cliff today. Plunging by more than 500 points, the Nasdaq pulled an equivalent of a thousand-point drop in the Dow. Read More

02.28.25- Federal Workers Sing the Blues
MN Gordon

No little boy or girl says they want to be a stiff at a government agency when they grow up.

Suppose you were an average student in high school without any real academic focus. Your guidance counselor told you that college graduates earn more over their working lives than their peers who only graduated high school. Read More

02.27.25- Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever
John Rubino

It's not clear how this resolves

Real estate is cyclical, which means it has its booms and busts, each of which differs slightly from the last. But today’s US housing market is so outside the norm that its strangeness has become the story’s main theme. Consider:

Numerically speaking, housing used to be driven by young families buying starter houses. But today, the median age of homebuyers is 56. Read More

02.26.25- Brazilian Stocks Offer 8% Yields at 8x Earnings
Adam Sharp

As investors, it is important to acknowledge our weaknesses.

My biggest weakness is that I hate owning overvalued stocks. I look at the S&P 500 today and simply cannot pull the trigger. It’s too expensive. Read More

02.25.25- When Markets Misbehave
Charles Hugh Smith

Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris.  

When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of us. I remember sitting in my car in a parking lot, unwilling to tear myself away from reading it.  Read More

02.24.25- Using Dow Jones’ Daily Volatility to Time the Market
Mark J Lundeen

Today, Friday, the market saw some selling pressure.  Why would that be?  I don’t know, and neither does anyone else.  Though “market experts,” to be sure knew why there were more sellers than buyers.  Actually, there is always as many sellers as buyers, as it takes two to make a trade at any price.  But the buyers were offering less today, than earlier in the week.  Maybe baby needs a new pair of shoes, so Wall Street had to suffer?  Life just isn’t fair. Read More

02.22.25- Time For a Mercy Killing – The House GOP’s Budget Resolution Hides a
$4.4 Trillion Deficit Fraud
David A. Stockman

What in the hell are these GOP fiscal frauds thinking?

The whole point of the 1974 budget act and its mechanism of budget resolutions and reconciliation instructions was to enable elected politician to curb their propensity to spend and borrow, and to thereby put an effective lid on the public debt.

A half century latter, however, the House Republicans are making a sheer mockery of the act with a resolution which actually instructs four leading House Committees to do theopposite. That is, to RAISE the deficit by $6 trillion over the next decade! Read More

02.21.25- The Coming Monetary Reset And Trump's Impact On Gold & The Dollar
Doug Casey

International Man: At $1.1 trillion, annualized interest on the US federal debt is now the second-largest budget item—and is on track to become the largest.

Meanwhile, long-term interest rates are climbing, even as the Fed lowers short-term rates.

Can the US government keep kicking the can down the road? Or will Trump have to reset the system? Read More

02.20.25- This Is Why The Bitter Feud Between President Trump And “President Z” Has Just Brought Us Even Closer To Nuclear War
Michael Snyder

All of a sudden, sending European ground troops into Ukraine has become a very hot topic.  In fact, the British are openly discussing the possibility of doing this quite soon.  Of course the Russians have already warned that if the British send ground troops into Ukraine, military targets inside the UK will become legitimate targets.

Needless to say, the moment the Russians start conducting military strikes inside the UK, the U.S. would be forced to intervene and we would be right on the brink of nuclear war. Read More

02.19.25- Conspiracy Theorists Were Right About Everything – Now What?
Brandon Smith

For many years alternative economists and “conspiracy theorists” have argued that, according to the evidence, there has been an organized criminal cabal operating a long running agenda to exploit and eventually destroy western culture. We have suggested that much of this agenda was being funded with our own tax dollar while using government institutions and NGOs as vehicles for social engineering. Read More

02.18.25- A Game of Chicken
Bill Bonner

As we all know, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. Like having a ‘heart attack,’ says Ray Dalio.

The only way to prevent it is to make dramatic policy changes now — not just to ‘improper payments’ to federal bureaucrats, but also serious cuts to the firepower industry. Read More

Bureaucracy Is One Of The Central Pillars Of Our Economy, And It Is Starting To Crumble (Jobless Claims In D.C. Up 36% In 1 Week!)
Michael Snyder

One of the central pillars of the U.S. economy is melting down right in front of our eyes.  We spend gigantic mountains of borrowed money to maintain the largest and most bloated bureaucracy in the entire history of the planet.  More than 3 million workers are employed directly by the federal government, more than 7 million workers are employed by private institutions that rely on government funding or government contracts, and more than 20 million workers are employed by state and local governments. Read More

02.15.25- Darkness Dying
James Howard Kunstler

“The nature of the NGO scams is to have a cause that sounds philanthropic, like ‘Save the Orphans of Sadville’ and then they pocket the money and zero actual orphans are helped.” — Elon Musk

The exorcism of the USA just keeps revving up. You can tell by the number of revolutions-per-minute Elizabeth Warren’s head spins while she spews pea soup at the cameras. Who knew what a demon-infested slough USA Management Central was? And yes, I would like some insight as to how humble civil servants like Liz Warren accrue a $12-million fortune . . . and $30-million for Samantha Power (ex-USAID-chief) . . . and more than $150-million for Nancy Pelosi. Could it be as simple as just good stock-picking? (Is that how they spend their time?) Read More

02.14.25- 2025 Economic Predictions already Coming true on Schedule
David Haggith

My ten 2025 economic predictions are coming in as expected so far with today’s news advancing the first two of them—a rapidly developing recession and a stock-market crash—along with another projections that would have been on the list, except that it was last year’s prediction, and already started happening last year, which is another return to rising inflation. Not hard to predict what is already happening, so I left that off the list. Read More

02.13.25- Trump’s Microcap Renaissance
James Altucher

In 2008, the U.S. government entered into a strange relationship with one of America’s largest companies.

It was about to go bankrupt.

And… the government swooped in to save it. All at the taxpayer’s expense.

Fast forward to October 1, 2024… Read More

02.12.25- Futures, Rates Flat Ahead Of High-Stakes CPI Report
Tyler Durden

US equity futures are flat, with yields and the dollar modestly higher ahead of this morning's US CPI reports (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.2% with Mag 7 stocks mostly flat, except for a big swing in TSLA premarket which now trades trades +1% after sliding -2% earlier amid rising competition from BYD. European stocks are at a third consecutive record high, supported by positive earnings news. An index of Asian shares advanced. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year adding a basis point to 4.55% as the US Dollar ticks higher; Powell’s testimony yesterday was largely in line with January FOMC and current market pricing (no urgency for the Fed to cut). Read More

02.11.25- Hostile Takeover of Canada
Eric S. Margolis

Canadians are among the world’s calmest, most polite, and gracious people.  They are also, in my experience, peaceful, honest and modest. You never see them angry – except for now.

Donald Trump, with his absurd megalomaniac claims to Greenland, Canada, Panama and now Gaza, has managed to do what no one else has done.  He has made the United States hated across Canada, even in usually pro-American Alberta. Read More

02.10.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
Doug Casey

International Man: China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) platform has stunned the world, outperforming US AI models while using just a fraction of their resources. Some are even calling it the “OpenAI killer.”

What’s your take on this development?

Doug Casey: Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More

02.08.25- The Crises Yet to Come
Charles Hugh Smith

"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. 

That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crisis by many. The choice between Reformation / Counter-Reformation seems to cleave on this basic perception: the status quo in its 2024 configuration was ably serving the common good, or the the status quo in its 2024 configuration had veered from the basics of accountability, efficiency and transparency into self-serving self-righteousness, defending its sclerosis and inefficiency via political correctness and narrative control. Read More

02.07.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
Doug Casey

International Man: China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) platform has stunned the world, outperforming US AI models while using just a fraction of their resources. Some are even calling it the “OpenAI killer.”

What’s your take on this development?

Doug Casey:Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More

02.06.25- Trade Wars Bring Pain… And Opportunity
James Rickards

It’s game on for the trade wars.

After months of threatening tariffs on U.S. trading partners during his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has now taken definitive action on that front. On Saturday, February 1, Trump announced that the U.S. was imposing 25% tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada (with the exception of Canadian energy, which was tariffed at 10%) and additional 10% tariffs on all goods imported from China. Read More

02.05.25- Ferris Bueller’s “Crisis Bubble”
Greg Guenthner

Markets move pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss ‘em.

Ferris Bueller wasn’t a trader (forgive me for adapting the iconic movie quote). But if Ferris ever had the urge to dip his toes into the markets, he’d probably have the perfect mindset to deal with this noisy, volatile news cycle.

For the past two weeks, we’ve watched the same situation play out. Here’s how it goes: Read More

02.04.25- This trade war might be the straw that breaks the US dollar’s back.
James Hickman

It was early spring in the year 1171 AD when Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos decided to go to war against his much smaller ally– Venice. And the historical record shows that it was a really bad idea.

The Byzantine Empire was still a vast and powerful state by the late 12th century. But it was becoming obvious to anyone paying attention that they were in serious decline. Read More

02.03.25- Are They Positioning Themselves
For A Pre-Determined Scenario In Which
There Will Be A Massive Stock Market Crash?
Michael Snyder

Do they know something that we do not?  All of a sudden, hedge funds are betting billions of dollars that the stock market is going to crash.  If they are wrong, they will lose a ton of money, but if they are correct they will make absolutely enormous profits.  So why are they feeling so confident that a stock market collapse is in our future?  Without a doubt, the real economy has been moving in the wrong direction for quite some time, but for years there have been relentless efforts to keep the financial markets propped up.  Could it be possible that there is a scenario in which the financial markets will simply be allowed to fail at some point? Read More

02.01.25- Rickards: A U.S. Recession is Coming
James Rickards

The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of Day One executive orders over the course of January 20 and 21 immediately after the inauguration. More executive orders are in the pipeline. Read More

01.31.25- The End of America’s Financial Contract
Sean King

Ah, the 1980s. I feel bad for people who didn’t grow up during that decade.

America was the undisputed King of the World.

I watched Lawrence Taylor beat up opposing quarterbacks every autumnal Sunday of my youth. Joe Montana won four Super Bowls. Some guy named Bo Jackson was an All-Star in both football and baseball. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Donnie Baseball were the diamond’s elite. Wayne Gretzky rewrote the record books in ice hockey. Magic and Larry dominated the NBA, soon to hand it over to Michael Jordan. Mike Tyson was a 22-year-old heavyweight champion. Ayrton Senna and Mario Andretti were racing royalty. Read More

01.30.25- The Release of DeepSeek AI Humiliates Western Companies and Forces Americans to See the Superiority of China
Andrew Anglin

For years, I’ve been attempting to explain that everything is better in China than in the United States. The gap is so massive that if an American raised on cartoonish propaganda about their birthplace as ‘the greatest country on earth’ visits China, it can trigger a serious personal crisis. It simply does not compute. Unsurprisingly, Americans who have never been to China struggle to process this reality and often revert to mindless claims like “China is a third-world country” or “Chinese people don’t have any freedom”. Read More

01.28.25- The U.S. Empire Is Entering
Its Final Inning
Willem Middelkoop

View Video

01.27.25- DeepSeek Pulls Rug Out On Nvidia, ASML
Tyler Durden

There is only one topic on traders' minds this morning that threatens to upend the multi-year AI bull trend driving chip stocks to record highs: the (extremely) cheaper Chinese DeepSeek response to OpenAI's ChatGPT, as noted in an overnight piece titled "Goldman Asks If China's DeepSeek is AI's Sputnik Moment." Read More

01.25.25- The Health Sector Is in a Panic
Tom Woods

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) created a panic this week when it announced a pause in “study sections.” Study sections, says Vinay Prasad, are “groups of mediocre scientists who decide which grants are funded.” Read More

01.24.25- Mastering the Art of Speculation and Today’s Top Opportunities
Doug Casey

International Man: Let’s begin by defining our terms. How would you define a speculator?

Doug Casey: The word “speculator” is generally misused and poorly defined. Let’s put it in context, along with some related terms that it’s usually confused with.

First, what is a speculator? A speculator is someone who capitalizes on distortions in the market. These distortions are mostly caused by the actions of government, so most are political in nature. But distortions can also be caused by natural disasters or aberrations of public psychology.Read More

01.23.25- How to Stop the BRICS Nations from Abandoning the Dollar
Patrick Barron

The US government is aghast that there is a new grouping of nations that seeks to form an alternative to the US trade bloc and trade settlement system that uses the dollar. These nations have been driven to this extreme, time-consuming, and difficult project by clueless US leaders who have imposed sanctions on Russian assets (literally stealing them) and have denied Russia and other nations from using the SWIFT messaging system for trade settlement. Read More

01.22.25- Welcome to The Trump Crypto Era
Adam Sharpe

On Saturday morning, I awoke to very strange news.

On Friday night around 9pm EST President Trump launched a new cryptocurrency.

When Trump first posted the news on Truth Social and X.com, people thought his accounts must have been hacked. But somehow, it was real. Read More

01.21.25- The Competency Crisis Proliferating The West
Alastair Crooke

The essayist and military strategist, Aurelien, has written a paper entitled: The Strange Defeat (original in French). The ‘strange defeat’ being that of Europe’s ‘curious’ inability to understand Ukraine or its military mechanics.

Aurelien highlights the strange lack of realism by which the West has approached the crisis — Read More

01.20.25- Druckenmiller Declares: U.S. Going From 'The Most Anti-Business Administration In History To The Opposite'
Tyler Durden

Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stanley Druckenmiller stated Monday that "animal spirits" have returned to the market, fueled by "giddy" CEOs anticipating Trump's return to the White House. Speaking to CNBC, the billionaire investor argued that the U.S. economy is shifting from "the most anti-business administration" in history to the most business-friendly administration. Read More

01.18.25- Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn
Quoth the Raven's Fringe Finance

A worst case scenario probably won't happen. But hey, it might.

Over the last year or two, I’ve really tried to take a holistic approach to markets and consider the unconscionable idea that I may not be right about everything all the time.

I know—beyond unfathomable to even consider, right? Read More

01.17.25- December CPI: The Good, the Bad, and the Expensive
Mike Maharrey

Have you ever gone to a movie everybody raved about and thought, ‘Meh. I don’t get all the hype?’

That’s how I felt reading the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

I mean, it wasn’t awful.

But it wasn’t good either. Read More

01.16.25- What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?
Charles Hugh Smith

If we study the problems outside the force-field of mythological beliefs, we find that there are no systemic solutions, there are only partial, local solutions.  

The status quo rests on a foundational belief that all problems, regardless of their nature, can be solved by technology, the market or the government (i.e. the state), or some combination of these three. Read More

01.15.25- The Big Bipolar Breakout
Greg Guenthner

It feels like a lifetime ago…

Trump had just won the election. Bullish momentum thrusts were popping up left and right. Small-caps and the major averages were breaking out. Everywhere you looked, stocks were posting new highs.Read More

01.14.25- Full Speed Ahead
Bill Bonner

They argue over the details and often duck real differences. But it didn’t matter what song they played in the bar. When the icy water rushed through the corridors, the Titanic was doomed.

We came back from snowy Ireland to snow covered Maryland. Read More

01.13.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: Will the Stock Market Dive in '25?
David Haggith

My big economic prediction for 2025 is here!

The stock market’s story for 2025 is going to be the story of the bond market. And the story of the bond market is going to be the story of inflation. It’s a continuation of the same old story I’ve been telling; but it’s more complicated this time. So, first—so you can fully grasp the predictable dynamics—the …Read More

01.11.25- Rational Despair
MN Gordon

The first full week of 2025 is coming to an end. And the final days of President Biden’s time in office cannot come soon enough. After four years of mega deficits and mega meddling, the economy and stock market have been crudely distorted. They’re both bloated to the max.

President-elect Trump wants to keep both the stock market and economic levitation going. Asset prices and low unemployment provide a superficial appearance of good health. Trump’s a reality TV guy. He wants things to look good. He wants to have rising stock indexes and low unemployment to point to as validation of his policies. Read More

01.10.25- Positioned For a Historic Crash
James Rickards

Earlier this week, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was officially certified by lawmakers in a joint session of Congress.

Kamala Harris presided over the ceremony as president of the Senate and faced the awkward task as she formally certified Trump’s victory and her own loss. Read More

01.09.25- “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
Lance Roberts

“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which ran its series finale last year, starred Larry David as an over-the-top version of himself in a comedy series that showed how seemingly trivial details of day-to-day life can precipitate a catastrophic chain of events. The show never failed to deliver a laugh but also reminded me that unexpected events can derail the most certain of outcomes. Read More

01.08.25- Pressing for Yet More
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks on measures that we find best-correlated with actual, subsequent 10-12 year S&P 500 total returns across a century of market cycles.

Reliable valuation measures are enormously informative about both long-term investment returns and the potential depth of market losses over the completion of any given market cycle. At the same time, valuations are of strikingly little use in projecting market outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle. Investor psychology – the desire to speculate, or the aversion to risk – has a much stronger impact, which is why we also have to attend to factors including market internals, sentiment, short-term overextension / compression, and monetary policy (while unfavorable market internals dominate monetary easing, favorable internals amplify it). Read More

01.07.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The true story of how Joe Biden tried to ruin your Christmas holiday (and is still trying)
James Hickman

If you’re looking for an easy example of almost everything wrong with this government, let me introduce Exhibit A:

It started almost exactly a year ago. It was January 2, 2024, and we wrote to you about a new law that had just taken effect called the Corporate Transparency Act, or the CTA. Read More

01.06.25- Doug Casey’s Top Prediction for 2025
Doug Casey

International Man: Looking at the intersection of finance, economics, politics, and culture, what is your most significant prediction for 2025?

What major event or trend should people prepare for that most are currently overlooking?

Doug Casey: The trends that appeared, seemingly against all odds, in 2024 are going to accelerate. Read More

01.04.25- Trump’s Plan to End Currency War 3.0
James Rickards

There has been a lot reported in recent days about the return of currency wars. With Trump 2.0 about to begin, let’s review his last term and what to expect in the second.

Trump badly bungled his transition after first being elected president in 2016. He was not ready with a long list of loyal appointees. Many of his senior appointments such as Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, James Mattis as Secretary of Defense, and John Kelly as Chief of Staff secretly disliked Trump but accepted their roles as so-called “adult supervision” around the supposedly reckless Trump. Read More

01.03.25- 10 Stock Market Predictions for 2025
Sean Williams

Here's what to expect from the stock market, along with some of Wall Street's hottest trends and most influential businesses, in the new year.

Stepping into a new year, investors have a lot to be thankful for. In 2024, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.11%), benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%), and technology-driven Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.68%) all reached multiple record-closing highs. Read More

01.02.25- Recession Watch: Broke Consumers, Tanking Houses
John Rubino

The money Americans saved during the pandemic is gone. And for many, that now means borrowing to make ends meet.

Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises

(CNBC) - Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach a fresh high this season. Read More

01.01.25- My Predictions for 2025? You Don’t Want to Know.
Rick Ackerman

I’m making no bold predictions for 2025, since getting it right in these way-too-interesting times is like trying to guess when a ticking time bomb will explode. When it does, the shrapnel will pop an economic bubble so pumped with folly, greed and hubris that only a Wall Street shill or a madman could believe the soft-landing story. Made-up statistics to support this fantasy are being peddled aggressively nonetheless by the likes of Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and a few other mainstream sources whose editors evidently are incapable of imagining what a hard landing might look like. Read More

12.31.24- Yellen Says US Will Hit Debt Ceiling Mid-January, Forcing Treasury To Employ 'Extraordinary Measures'
Tom Ozimek

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the United States will hit its statutory debt ceiling around the middle of January, a development she said will prompt the Treasury to resort to “extraordinary measures” to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. Read More

12.30.24- Stock Market Crash in 2025! Stocks Have NEVER Been as Precarious as they Are Now
David Haggith

Stock market crash 2025 may be sledding this way, while Santa is looking a little past his expiration day...

The last time I said the stock market was this precariously poised to crash was in early 2020. A month later, the market dove headlong over a cliff, and it took all the king’s horses and all the king’s men to put the market and economy back together again. Of course, that may not have happened if we didn’t, about a month after I wrote that statement, experience the biggest forced, worldwide, economic shutdown in history under political dictates. Read More

12.28.24- The World Order Is Dangerously In Flux
James Howard Kunstler

"A core reflex in these decades of postmodern insanity was constant rejection of things we thought we knew in favor of New, Improved Beliefs packaged from above.”

- Matt Taibbi, Racket News

I would guess that you’re feeling as if anything might happen now. It’s hard to rule out even the possibility that we could all be vaporized before moving onto the next mundane chore of the day. The world order is dangerously in flux. Read More

12.27.24- US Stock Futures Drop As 10Y Yield Trades Near 2024 High
Tyler Durden

US equity futures declined after Thursday’s muted session on Wall Street, while markets in Europe and Asia advanced in muted holiday trading as the year draws to a close. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were down 0.3%, after ending Thursday flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2% in quiet post-holiday session as mixed jobless claims data did little to change bets on the Fed’s policy outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near a seven-month high around 4.60%, and the dollar was steady, on track for its best year since 2015. Oil reversed Thursday's losses and was set to gain.  The macro calendar is quiet: we get the advance goods trade balance, as well as wholesale and retail inventories. Read More

12.26.24- Will Russia Collapse in 2025?
Paul Craig Roberts

Is Putin’s Government Trying to Be a 19th century liberal government in the brutal evil world of the 21st century?

I raise this question not only because Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II, and still Putin has not cleared Ukrainian troops from the small Donbas area or from the Ukrainian invasion of Russian Kursk.  Does anyone remember when Putin declared that Russia would never again fight a war on its own territory? Putin has been fighting a war on Russia’s own territory for longer than the Soviet offensive took to drive the German invaders out of Russia.  Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty. Read More

12.25.24- It's A Wonderful Life and A Political One
Chris Powell

Frank Capra’s 1946 film, “It’s a Wonderful Life,” to be broadcast again Christmas Eve at 8 p.m. by NBC television, is loved most for its personal message of discovery at Christmas: that its hero’s life has been, unbeknownst to him, crucial to his family, friends, community, and even his country.

Such general encouragement may seem more needed than ever these days; indeed, this may be, sadly, the cause of the film’s popularity. But “It’s a Wonderful Life” may be more important still for its overlooked lesson in democratic economics, a lesson arising from the struggle for survival of a combination credit union and savings bank, the Bailey Building & Loan in the Everytown of Bedford Falls.Read More

12.24.24- Big Money
Bill Bonner

We are watching a struggle between money and power. Money wants a freer economy... with the usual grift and corruption. Power wants what it always wants — more power.

Forbes:

Biden forgives $4.28 billion in student debt for 54,900 borrowers

The relief is a result of fixes the U.S. Department of Education made to the once-troubled Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. Read More

12.23.24- National Self-Perception
Jeff Thomas

“This above all: to thine own self be true.”

Bill Shakespeare had a talent for phrasing basic truths well, and this quote is no exception. (Even if you lie to others, don’t lie to yourself, or you’re in real trouble.)

Much has been said about the American self-image, going back to its inception as an upstart nation that imagined it could succeed as a republic, as Athens had failed to do. Read More

12.21.24- The Correction Is Not Over Yet
David Brady

FOMC Impact on Gold and Silver Markets

When it comes to the Fed, words speak louder than actions. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. However, Fed Chair Powell said that the number of rate cuts in 2025 would be just two, down from four in September. This is hawkish, obviously. The markets responded accordingly Read More

12.20.24- Microsoft's $200 Billion Bitcoin Moment
James Altucher

$200 billion can buy a lot of Bitcoin.

That’s the amount of cash Microsoft is sitting on – money that could have made history a few weeks ago.

The crypto world watched with bated breath as Microsoft shareholders faced a decision that would ripple through Wall Street: whether to turn some of that mountain of cash into Bitcoin. Read More

12.19.24- Trump’s Economic Plans
James Rickards

Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans.

His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. Read More

12.18.24- Will the New Tariff Coming to Town Put Stocks in the Stockade or Shoot up Inflation?
David Haggith

Ten days ago I published a Deeper Dive featuring a number of interviews with people from the week before, saying a huge blow-off top in the stock market was imminent—huge as in, at least, a 50% plunge. Now, nine days later, the Dow has completed its longest (nine-day) uninterrupted slide since 1978. Did the top come in a soon as the article was published? Read More

12.17.24- Trade Wars Accelerate
Adam Sharp

During Donald Trump’s first term, U.S. tariffs on China increased from 3% in 2016 to 19% by the end of 2020.

As a result, China’s share of the U.S. trade deficit dropped from 47% to 26%. However, it’s worth noting that America’s trade imbalance continued to rise, as production shifted to low-tariff countries such as Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico. Read More

12.16.24- Legendary Investor Sold His US Stocks, Here's Why
Jim Rogers

View Video

12.14.24- A "Spectacular Implosion" In Stocks Is Due Once The Euphoria Ends
Adam Taggart

As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street.

Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising.

But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a labor market that does not seem as robust as we've been told. Read More

12.13.24- The Hardest Retirement Math
Is Also the Most Crucial
Peter Reagan

Inflation – we’re all tired of hearing about it, plenty tired of thinking about it, too. But we have to consider exactly how big a difference inflation makes in our future cost of living.

And it seems like nobody knows exactly how to figure out how much today’s dollars will be worth tomorrow…Everyone agrees (if they’ve thought about it) that retirement planning is a good idea. Read More

12.12.24- The mother of all bubbles
Ruchir Sharma

The US has never been so overhyped, relative to the rest of the world

The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’ 

The idea of America as an exceptional nation, superior to its rivals and therefore destined to lead the world, seems passé to most observers. In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of a dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarised at home. But in the investing world, the term “American exceptionalism” is hotter than ever. Read More

12.11.24- East Vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare
Brandon Smith

In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls. Read More

12.10.24- The Ultimate Hustle Economy
James Hickman

On July 9, 1997, Apple Computer (as the company was then known) was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

Its cash reserves were dwindling rapidly. Its losses were mounting. And the once mighty company was just 90 days away from failing. Read More

12.09.24- The Deeper Dive: Some Predict a Major, MAJOR Stock Blow-off is Imminent
David Haggith

Here is how it will blow!

As promised, this weekend’s Deeper Dive will pull together the best bits from a few videos published in The Daily Doom headlines this week about the prospects for an imminent major stock market crash. I’ll include each video and bullet-point the reasons given for believing a major crash is imminent as I go from video to video on what turned out to be a common theme to all of them. Read More

12.07.24- The Peasants’ Revolt 2.0
Mark Gullick

On June 1, 1381, thousands of English rural laborers descended on the capital of London, the first martial event in what would come to be known as the Peasants Revolt. Over 650 years later, a somewhat less bloody rebellion showed itself in the same city, these latter-day peasants facing similar fiscal provocation to their 14th-century forerunners. Tens of thousands of small farmers descended on London to protest the latest in a series of government policies seemingly designed to destroy the farming industry in Britain, at least in its current form. Read More

12.06.24- A Critical Time for America
Justin O Smith

Nearly half of America is jubilant with thoughts that their political savior has arrived and nearly another half of America is gnawing, spitting and gnashing their teeth in violent, spasmodic angst in their certainty that a new Hitler has risen in the country to make their lives a living hell, while the rest of us are simply watching and waiting to see what the next shoe to drop will be and just how much of our liberty will be trashed and violated under President Trump, no matter how much the economy may or may not improve. Read More

12.05.24- The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following the Path of Collapsed Empires?
Nick Giambruno

Debt can topple even the most powerful empires.

Whether it’s Rome, Spain, France, Britain, or the Soviet Union, excessive debt has played a critical role in their decline.

The typical pattern in these examples of collapsing empires is: Read More

12.04.24- The Debt Monster and the Big Men
who will Fight it
David Haggith

Trump has a man for fighting debt, but Trump also has an iron-clad record of creating debt and lots of it everywhere he goes.

Government spending (and debt) keep smashing over new milestones. Today we get a report that says October clawed its way to the highest monthly deficit in history with the exception of that one Covid lockdown year from hell. Bottom line: The Biden government spent $257-billion more than it took in. So, we’re now piling up over a quarter-trillion per month! Read More

12.03.24- Are We Headed For A Economic Collapse?! Silver Prices Will GO PARABOLIC!
Adam Button

View Video

12.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The plan to set US special forces on Mexican drug cartels — and why experts say
it won’t work
Joe Barnes

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is among the most powerful of the Mexican gangs that could offer real opposition to any military attempt to interfere in the narcotics trade

Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Read More

11.30.24- The end of globalization:
forecast calls for pain
Rick Mills

He who has the commodities rules the world

The first great wave of globalization ended with World War I, and was followed by trade wars and deep depressions throughout the interwar period. Although trade integration resumed after World War II – facilitating the reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan – its scope remained limited. It was not until the late 1980s and early 1990s that the next great wave of globalization began.(Project Syndicate, ‘The Dangerous Retreat Into Protectionism’, May 21, 2024) Read More

11.29.24- The Zealous Pursuit of Retail Therapy
MN Gordon

Something remarkable happened following the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the USA. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) topped the 44,000-point barrier for the first time ever. Then, several weeks later, it briefly eclipsed 45,000.

The stock market is in full melt up. The Trump bump is powering share prices higher. Investors and speculators expect a bright future. And their intentions are to exploit it for personal profit. Read More

11.28.24- Seven Key Indicators to Watch as the Dollar Declines
Mike Maharrey

There's been a lot of talk about "de-dollarization," with many countries trying to minimize their exposure to the U.S. dollar.

But is the dollar really in trouble?

Investment guru Nick Giambruno thinks it is. In fact, he believes the dollar will ultimately collapse. Read More

11.27.24- About that “Government Efficiency”
 James Hickman

As the year 1980 came to a close, Americans had just experienced the worst annual inflation in decades.

It was the culmination of weak, incompetent leadership combined with massive government spending throughout the stagflation of the 1970s— an entire decade of high unemployment, little growth, and a rising cost of goods and services. Read More

Turkey, Touchdowns, and Trading
Greg Guenthner

The market melt-up is in full force as we enjoy the Thanksgiving trading week.

This is easily my favorite holiday. I get a midweek break in the market action filled with food, family, and football — without the added stress of exchanging gifts and all the cleanup that comes after a busy Christmas morning with the kids… Read More

11.25.24- Americans Need $5.3 Million Net Worth To Be Considered Financially Successful: Survey
Tyler Durden

Americans have high expectations of what it means to be financially successful, but many of them do not expect to meet their desired level of success, according to a survey by financial planning company Empower.

An annual salary in excess of $270,000 is needed for a person to be considered successful in the United States, the Nov. 22 survey found.

In terms of net worth, the threshold is at $5.3 million.  Read More

11.23.24- Three Unusual Inflation Hedges
Adam Sharp

As we float in the trough following the first wave of inflation, bracing for the next, it seems an excellent time to review a few alternative inflation hedges.

Today we’ll examine the benefits of owning firearms, farmland, and fixed-rate mortgages during inflationary periods. Let’s get started.  Read More

11.22.24- Elon Musk’s Wrecking Ball and Your Financial Future
Peter Reagan

Discover how the Department of Government Efficiency’s bold plans could reshape your financial future. With huge cuts to government spending, will inflation subside? Will prices finally fall? Or will Bidenomics prices stick around even longer?

One of Donald Trump's big campaign promises when he won both in 2016 and this year was to reduce the size of the Federal government and radically reduce government spending.  Read More

11.21.24- Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields
Bas van Geffen

Yesterday, my colleague wrote that not everything is worth worrying about equally. Financial stability reports always provide plenty of fodder for pessimists; after all, the purpose of these reports is to raise awareness of potential downsides. But not all risks are equally concrete or urgent. Having said that, in its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB was more blunt about financial risks than in previous years. Read More

11.20.24- How to Stick The Market Melt-Up
Greg Guenthner

Melt-up season is upon us and stocks are posting big moves… in both directions!

The sharp election rally has given way to some volatility as investors digest the moves, fill some gaps, and nervously wait to see what stocks and sectors bounce first. Read More

11.19.24- A Watched Market Crash Pot Never Boils
QTR’s Fringe Finance

The stock market will crash as a result of policy the last few years. The left will use it as a clarion call to blame President Trump.

I was thinking today about my prognostications over the last year regarding the stock market, and the old phrase “a watched pot never boils” came to mind. The lesson is simple: the more you focus on something you’re waiting for, the less likely it is to happen. It’s only when you stop paying attention that things unfold as you may have wanted or predicted. Read More

11.18.24- Regional Banks To Go Bust? Massive Bailouts Coming
John Rubino

View Video

11.16.24- The US Economy Will Collapse: How Trump Should Handle It
Doug Casey

View Video

11.15.24- How The Trade War Ends
MN Gordon

The quote “When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will,” is frequently attributed to 19th century writer and free market economist Frederic Bastiat. While these specific words, strung together with this specific syntax, cannot be found in Bastiat published catalogue, their sentiments are of the type he would have likely endorsed.

The point is that free trade not only increases the wealth of different societies, but it may also be essential for peaceful relations. The breakdown of free trade has often coincided with wars. These wars start as currency and trade wars and then escalate into shooting wars. This is something to be mindful of as President-elect Trump amps up forthcoming import tariffs. Read More

11.14.24- Trump’s Second Term: What It Means for America and Investors
Doug Casey

What are your overall thoughts on Trump’s second term?

How do you expect it to differ from his first term?

Doug Casey:Thank heavens Kamala lost. If she’d won, the Jacobins would have cemented their hold on the country, and it would have been “game over.” We would have seen an acceleration of cultural decline, vastly higher taxes and regulations, and a serious push to shut down free speech. Read More

11.13.24- American Economy Bleaker
than its Façade
David Haggith

News articles today speak of gross statistical manipulation, soaring bond yields due to rising inflation, and a possibly fizzling stock rally.

More voices are harmonizing with mine by saying that the recession already began this year. (Which is not to say they are saying it with any awareness of what I’ve been saying, as I don’t suppose they are.) Today, Ed Dowd says that Donald Trump is inheriting “a turd of an economy” because the facts have been concealed (read “stealth recession)” behind “such blatant manipulation of government statistics.” Read More

11.12.24- Hold Your Nose and Buy!
Greg Guenthner

There are times when it pays to be contrarian.

This is not one of those times. 

Stocks have exploded higher since the election, with some of the market’s most speculative areas taking on leadership roles.

If you’re looking for a melt-up, you’ve come to the right place. Read More

11.11.24- Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary
Kelsey Williams

NOTE TO READERS:  “Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary” was originally published as an exclusive for TalkMarkets on October 29, 2024. I have not changed anything in the article, nor is there any reason to modify or alter what is written below because of U.S. election results.

Bond prices collapsed nearly 3% post-election and are down 12% since mid-September. Whatever that tells us did not change because of election results. Read More

11.09.24- Judy Shelton Returns With A Bold Plan To Restore Gold
Peter Schiff

2024 has demonstrated why gold is worth investing in, especially for foreign central banks, who seek to shore up the weaknesses of their fiat currency by buying gold. 

In her newest work, former Trump administration advisor Judy Shelton argues that a return to sound money requires going back to gold. Read More

11.08.24- The Road to America’s Golden Age
MN Gordon

Hey! Rub-a-dub-dub. Trump won!

Make a toast or say a prayer. It all depends on your political and spiritual preferences. There are times to kiss the bottle. So, too, there are times to kneel in church. Perhaps now is the time for both.

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” remarked Trump. Read More

11.07.24- The Recession Of 2025 Will Be Backdated
Jeffrey Tucker

It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer. It will then be declared by year’s end. The following year it could become backdated with data revisions that take us to 2022. At that point, it will become obvious to people that we have a major problem. Money velocity will freeze up and banks will start failing.

That’s a lot to consider so let’s unpack this a bit. Read More

11.06.24- Trump Wins, Sends 'Trumpquake' Through Washington
Tyler Durden

Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius provided clients, shortly after the official call by AP on a Trump win, the six main points of what this means in the political game in Washington, the economy, and markets: Read More

11.05.24- The Great Blunder In Public Finance
Economart

Why so many go so wrong on public debt.

I have been involved in the study of economics for about 30 years. What spurred my interest was the discovery of a major blunder in the field of Public Finance that has caused centuries of misery, poverty and tyranny. The strange thing is that we all know of this blunder in various ways, but inexplicably refuse to incorporate the information into reasoning on this most important subject. It is beyond me why the learned and lettered people of Finance and economics allow this fundamental and dubious premise, passively accepted for millennia, to persist. Read More

11.04.24- Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Dumps 100 Million Apple Shares As Unprecedented Selling Spree Boosts Cash To Record
$325 Billion Dollars
Tyler Durden

Back in August, when discussing Buffett’s ongoing liquidation of his Bank of America stake, we said that “Berkshire’s rising cash stockpiles merely reflect the firm’s inability to find deals in today’s overvalued and weak economic environment”, little did we know just how accurate that would be, because just one day later we and the rest of the market were stunned to learn that far from only dumping Bank of America, the 94-year-old Omaha billionaire had been busy quietly liquidating his most iconic holding in an unprecedented selling spree that sent Berkshire’s cash pile soaring by a record $88 billion to an all time high $277 billion at the end of Q2. Read More

11.02.24- Why the DOLLAR will collapse, GOLD will rule, and America will FRACTURE
into new nations
Mike Adams

View Video

11.01.24- The Brics Version of Globaloney
Joseph P. Farrell

When Catherine Austin Fitts sent the following article to me in an email, I knew instantly I’d be blogging about it, because I think it’s a bit of confirmation – in its own convoluted geopolitical double-speak – of a “scenario” I’ve had in my head, and mentioned, ever since the days of my appearances on the late George Ann Hughes’ The Byte Show in the 2o10s, that scenario being one of “Mafia wars”. But we’ll get back to that after the story, which one simply has to read to believe: Read More

10.31.24- US Treasury: Funny Money
Ponzi Scheme
Helena Glass

Corporate fines and penalties awarded to the US government have surpassed $1 trillion since 2000.  Despite the malfeasance, no one ever went to jail.    No one was ‘sanctioned’.  How much of the penalties were imposed as a Cartel fee, and how much were for egregious acts that should have resulted in prison?   Where does the collected money go? Read More

10.30.24- BRICS will not kill Dollar – War Will
Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I know you will not say who you advise, but we know you were the only Western analyst called in by China during the Asian Currency Crisis. People have also seen you in India at that famous hotel that the terrorists attacked. China even issued a white paper on how their central bank uses Capital Flow Analysis, which you invented. That said, my question is: The BRICS had everyone expecting a gold-backed currency if that failed. You also said in an interview that the new BRICS currency would not displace the dollar. Would you comment on why a gold-backed BRIC note would fail since they seem to have taken that position from you? Read More

10.29.24- Government Can Fix 
Neither Food Nor Farm
Joel Salatin

With the national health crisis, food debauchery, and farm exploitation suddenly jumping to headlines via RFK, Jr., numerous people have offered solutions but nothing I’ve seen truly gets to the heart of the problem. 

Recently RFK, Jr. gave his recipe but in general, it’s yet another request for government intervention in these fields (pun intended). Capping drug prices, prohibiting research grants from going to people with conflicts of interest, and reforming crop subsidies to incentivize healthier alternatives all sound nice. Eliminating SNAP (formerly food stamps) from being spent on high fructose corn syrup drinks ($9 billion annually) sounds good too. Read More

10.28.24- On The Wrong Track: This Is What An Imploding Economy Looks Like
Michael Snyder

One of the main reasons why Americans are in such a foul mood right now is because the economy is in really bad shape and it just keeps getting worse.  This is very good news for the Trump campaign, because most Americans don’t want things to remain the same.  A desire for change is in the air, but our economy is unraveling so rapidly that it won’t be easy for anyone to turn things around.  We have built up a tremendous amount of momentum in the wrong direction, and it appears that the months ahead are not going to be pleasant. Read More

10.26.24- Do We Face a "Minsky Moment"?
John Rubino

And what, exactly, does that mean? 

Paul Tudor Jones, a well-known billionaire hedge fund manager, recently went on CNBC to warn about the impact of America’s soaring government debt. As reported by Kitco:

The Tudor Investment founder and CIO expressed concerns that if the U.S. continues to spend beyond its means, a major sell-off in the bond market could ensue, leading to a spike in interest rates. Read More

10.25.24- "Consumers Running Out Of Money": Former Target Exec Offers Dire Warning Ahead Of Christmas
Tyler Durden

US corporate media outlets continue to push propaganda that the economy thrives ahead of the presidential elections, cheerleading the most recent retail sales print. However, most Americans know MSM is full of 'malarkey' because inflation and interest rates force many to spend more but receive less. Many folks have depleted their personal savings and racked up insurmountable credit card debt just to keep up with rising food, energy, insurance, and shelter costs. This toxic mix of inflation, sparked by failed Bidenomics, has hit low- and middle-income families the hardest, potentially leading to a breaking point this upcoming holiday shopping season. Read More

10.24.24- Economy Slowly Ebbing in Rising Tide of Inflation
David Haggith

The Dow tumbled fairly hard today (-400), but the real news is the reason it fell. According to CNBC, the stock market’s most troubled day in over a month is happening because Treasury yields have been rising and competing with stocks. Treasury yields started rising when the Fed started lowering rates; and, according to John Rubino, there may be no surer sign of a bond vigilante rebellion. Or, as he put it, “Bonds don’t trust the Fed.” Read More

10.23.24- The Point of No Return(s)
James Rickards

Should the U.S. national debt be considered an actual crisis? Does it have the destructive power of a hurricane, tornado, earthquake or other crisis?

The short answer is yes but the full explanation requires a financial history lesson. Read More

10.22.14- Two Weeks Before
the Meltdown Begins
Frank Miele

I wouldn’t be much of a political pundit if I weren’t willing to share my prediction for what will happen in 15 days when one of the most important presidential elections in history is decided.

So here goes: Donald Trump will win, and he will win convincingly. But that doesn’t mean the progressive left won’t have a meltdown. Just as in 2016, when Trump was first elected president, the media will be dismayed, the Democrats will be shocked, and there will be protests in the streets, possibly violent. Congressional Democrats such as Jamie Raskin will try to prevent Trump from being sworn in by declaring him an insurrectionist. Read More

10.21.24- You Can’t Get Blood Out Of A Stone: U.S. Consumers Have Been Squeezed Bone Dry As The U.S. Economy Falters
Michael Snyder

A recent survey discovered that 79 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. is on the wrong track right now.  As a nation, we may not agree on much, but this is one thing that almost all of us can agree on.  Needless to say, the economy is the number one reason why so many people are dissatisfied with the direction that the country is heading.  Over the past four years the cost of living has risen much faster than paychecks have, and as a result our standard of living has been going down.  Now we have reached a point where tens of millions of U.S. consumers have been squeezed bone dry, and as a result businesses are failing all over the nation. Read More

10.19.24- How Federal “Bans”, “Freezes”, and “Price Controls” Spread Economic Chaos
James Wesley Rawles

I have always been a believer in free market economics. Whenever a government tries to “fix” things, it often makes things worse, and more often than not, the law of Unintended Consequencesis engaged. Prohibition of alcohol early in the last century is often cited, but some of the worst cases of Federal government intervention have taken place since the 1960s. Here are a few examples: Read More

10.18.24- Retail Bad News Adjusted into Great News Just in Time for the Election
David Haggith

You've heard of "just-in-time" ordering; well, this is it; well, this is just-in-time statistics made to order.

In keeping with the analysis I did in recent Deeper Dives about how all the good news in economics these days appears to be adjusted into place, we have another clear example today that I'll share with all. Read More

10.17.24- Top 3 Predictions
for Post-Election America
Doug Casey

International Man: In the 2020 Presidential elections, there were allegations of cheating, voter fraud, and all sorts of shenanigans.

What do you expect to happen in the 2024 election in this regard? Do you think the outcome will be disputed?

Doug Casey: Election disputes are not unique to the current era. In the 1960 election, Chicago’s Mayor Daley stuffed ballot boxes, allowing Kennedy to win over Nixon in an extremely close election. Read More

10.16.24- The Biggest Credit Bubble in History
Brian Maher

Economist Richard Duncan is credited with fabricating the term “creditism.”

Many still insist ours is a capitalist system. Yet Mr. Duncan tells them to have another guess.

He argues that the capitalist system went into the grave when the gold standard went into the grave. Read More

10.15.24- 10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches
Michael Snyder

The health of the economy has been a major determining factor in many past presidential elections, and the health of the economy is certainly going to have an enormous influence on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.  In fact, according to a poll that was just released by Rasmussen the economy is the number one issue by a wide margin for voters in the ultra-important swing state of Pennsylvania.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, most Americans are not pleased with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions are now taking another turn for the worse.  The following are 10 signs that the economy is a giant mess as the election approaches… Read More

10.14.24- What If There’s No Landing at all, But Flight at Higher Speed and Altitude than Normal, with Higher and Rising Inflation?
Wolf Richter

That scenario is re-emerging as a real possibility in recent economic data.

When the Fed cut its policy rates on September 18, it looked at labor market data showing a sudden slowdown of job creation to weak levels, and it looked at decent consumer spending data, so-so income growth, and a very thin and plunging savings rate. And the trends looked lousy. Read More

10.12.24- Prepare for False Flag
Before U.S. Election
Gerald Celente

View Video

10.11.24- BRICS working on own payment system – Russian finance minister
RT Exclusive

The group’s members want to bypass “politicized” Western platforms, Anton Siluanov has told RT

The BRICS countries are working to create their own international payments system as platforms which operate using Western infrastructure are becoming increasingly politicized, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told RT Arabic in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. The unprecedented sanctions campaign against Moscow spearheaded by the US has forced Russia and other members of the geopolitical bloc to look for ways to pursue trade despite the restrictions. Read More

10.10.24- Why I Want My Kids to Grow Up to be Union Bosses
James Hickman

Like most kids, I wanted to be an astronaut when I was little. Then a fireman. Then a pirate. Then a movie star.

My parents were pretty traditional so they hoped I would grow up to become a doctor. This is pretty typical; after all, parents just want their kids to be financially secure.

I think about this a lot with my kids— both of whom are extremely young. I give a lot of thought to what their world will look like in 20 years given the seismic geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts taking place. Read More

10.09.24- Projected Supply Deficits For Key Energy Transition Metals
Tyler Durden

The demand for clean energy metals will grow by more than 400% by 2030, according to the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC). 

Supply, however, is not on track to keep up with this surging demand. 

Visual Capitalist partnered with Appian Capital Advisory to visualize what these supply gaps may look like by 2030 and the mining investment needed to balance these deficits.  Read More

10.08.24- Can America Survive Global De-Dollarization?
Daniel Kowalski

“Money does not grow on trees” is an old expression of wisdom that seems to have been disregarded by 21st century American policymakers. People all over the world and throughout time base their decisions primarily through lived experience. The US dollar became the world’s reserve currency in the aftermath of World War II, which is now almost eighty years ago. There is virtually no one in power at the American government or in leading institutions who has a living memory from before that period. Read More

10.07.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How to Steer Hurricanes, Flood Homes, and Steal Lithium
Greg Reese

The lithium rich mines in North Carolina and the thieves who occupy government

We have had the technology to create, control, and steer hurricanes for decades.

“Project Cirrus is the first Official attempt to modify a hurricane. It was run by General Electric with the support of the US military. The official theory was that by changing the temperature outside the eye-wall of a hurricane, which they did by seeding the clouds with various compounds such as silver iodide, a decrease in strong winds will result. Read More

10.05.24- America’s “Quiet Coup”
Brian Maher

Is the United States enduring a “Quiet Coup”? Economist Peter St. Onge:

In the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis, former chief economist of the IMF Simon Johnson warned that the same dysfunctional policies he saw in his basket-case banana republics had taken hold in the United States. Read More

10.04.24- Mideast Tinderbox Set to Explode
Jim Rickards

There’s so much happening right now, including last night’s vice presidential debate, it’s hard to know where to begin.

But yesterday’s attack by Iran on Israel needs to be addressed because of its potentially massive implications.

Iran launched a major missile attack against Israel, in apparent retaliation for recent Israeli attacks upon Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Details of the attack remain sketchy, and Israel is extremely secretive about whatever damage it sustained. Read More

10.03.24- America Is Falling Apart: Our National Priorities Are in Dire Need of Restructuring
John & Nisha Whitehead

“You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”—Bob Dylan

A water main breaks every two minutes somewhere in the U.S., resulting in contaminated drinking supplies and boil water notices.

One out of three bridges in the U.S. needs repair, endangering hundreds of millions of commuters. More than 42,000 bridges across the country, carrying about 167 million vehicles each day, are in disrepair. Read More

10.02.24- Raging Bulls Take Over the World
Greg Guenthner

The major averages are barreling into the fourth quarter perched near all-time highs.

The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% year-to-date, and more than 60% off its bear market lows posted in late 2022.

US stocks are strong — no doubt about that! Read More

Time Is Running Out: US Port Strike Could Begin Tuesday; Goldman Finds Highly Exposed Retailers
Tyler Durden

Time is running out for the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX)—a coalition of port operators and carriers—to form a new labor contract as the existing one expires at midnight. A no-deal scenario would mean thousands of longshoremen at three dozen facilities across 14 Gulf and East Coast ports would begin striking at 12:01 am EST. Tuesday would mark the beginning of a major supply chain storm (inflation surge) in a no-deal scenario. Read More

09.30.24- Trump or Harris: Who’s Better for the Economy?
Peter Reagan

Both major party candidates in the U.S. have started to share details about what they envision for the economy and how they want to get to that vision. What will be the real-world effects of those policies, and how can you get ready for what’s coming?

As we move into the final months of the 2024 presidential race, we’re starting to hear details from both the Trump and Harris campaigns. We’re learning more about how they plan to ensure a prosperous future for our country. Read More

09.28.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Greatest Coverup in History
John Leake

NIH Director Francis Collins on EcoHealth Alliance/WIV partnership: "There's a lot more to this story than we have been able to talk about."

Last night at dinner, my younger brother told me about an old Army Ranger buddy of his who did several tours in Afghanistan & Iraq, and all of the terrible things he did and saw for the U.S. government and its corporate cronies. Dawning awareness of the true horror of it caused him to go through a dark odyssey of alcohol and violence from which he may never have emerged had it not been for his exceptional mental toughness and discipline. Read More

09.27.24- China is Winning the EV War
MN Gordon

Jim Farley, chief executive of Ford Motor Company, knew it was bad before he boarded his return flight to Michigan. His fact-finding mission to China in May had revealed the cold hard truth.

That “Chinese EV makers are using a low-cost supply base to undercut the competition on price, offering slick digital features and aggressively expanding to overseas markets.”

According to Farley, “this is an existential threat.” Read More

09.26.24- Port Of New York-New Jersey Details Strike Operations Plan
Stuart Chirls

Union work stoppage would shut down East Coast gateway, dozens of other ports

The second-busiest U.S. ocean container port urged shippers to wind down cargo business less than a week before a strike deadline set by union dockworkers. Read More

09.25.24- This Is What Happened When Javier Milei Dumped Rent Controls
M Dowling

As Kamala Harris’s economic plan evolves around a failed communist policy of rent controls, Javier Milei ditched them in Argentina.

When Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, one of his first orders was to scrap the country’s onerous rent controls. According to The Wall Street Journal, here’s what happened next. Read More

09.24.24- So the Economy Now Depends on Stocks Which Depend on Front-Running the Fed-And This Is Fine?
Charles Hugh Smith

Is an economy based on the wealth effect generated by front-running the front-runners really that stable? 

So the entire economy depends on the stock market going up as punters front-run the Fed--and this is not only fine, it's optimal, the best arrangement the world has ever seen. On which ethereal plane is this considered sane, much less optimal?  Read More

09.23.24- "The Biggest Wild Card In The Presidential Election": Just Days Left Until A Crippling Port Strike Paralyzes The East Coast
Tyler Durden

Late last week, the CEO of Flexport - one of largest US supply-chain logistics operators - warned that "the biggest wild card in the presidential election that nobody’s talking about? The looming port strike that could shut down all East and Gulf Coast ports just 36 days before the election.” Read More

09.21.24- SEC Slip-Up Hints at
Fresh Financial Fears
Adam Sharp

Oops. Last week the SEC accidentally published internal commentary along with a speech by Chair Gary Gensler. Here’s one of the comments which was mistakenly included.

I strongly recommend that a sentence be placed here (or somewhere [sic] in the first part of the speech) to reassure markets that you are not making the speech because you think there is an imminent crisis. Read More

09.20.24- Rate Cuts: Good News, Bad News
Jim Rickards

As reported yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in over four years. But that was expected. What wasn’t expected by many was how aggressive the cut was. And that’s the bad news for markets and the economy.

Why? Weren’t market bulls hoping for a pivot by the Fed for months? Weren’t they ready to pop the champagne cork? Read More

09.19.24- If The Markets Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get?
Kelsey Williams

HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET? 

Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments worldwide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%… Read More

09.18.24- Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn’t
Lance Roberts

Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge. To wit:

“Its success ‘is a well-established empirical fact,’ and can be demonstrated across multiple assets and over 212 years of stock market data, argues money manager Cliff Asness and his colleagues. It is ‘the premier market anomaly,’ writes analyst Gary Antonacci. It trounces a simple ‘buy and hold’ stock market strategy going back almost 100 hundred years, estimates money manager Meb Faber.”  Read More

09.17.24- Grocery Rationing within Four Years
Jeffrey Tucker

There is a lack of public comment and debate about Kamala Harris’s call for price controls on groceries and rents, the most stunning and frightening policy proposal made in my lifetime. 

Immediately, of course, people will reply that she is not for price controls as such. It is only a limit on “gouging” (which she variously calls “gauging”) on grocery prices. As for rents, it’s only for larger-scale corporations with many units. Read More

09.16.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The federal government is coming for your Airline Points…
James Hickman

The US Department of Transportation clearly has a lot on its plate.

America’s infrastructure is not in great shape. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) grades America’s roads, bridges, and public transportation a C- overall.

In fact 42% of US bridges are at least 50 years old, and nearly 7.5% are considered structurally deficient. 43% of public roads are rated as mediocre or poor. Read More

09.14.24- What You Don't Know
Might Surprise You
Michael Snyder

Large businesses are declaring bankruptcy at a staggering rate, and yet we are being told over and over again that the economy is just fine.  Needless to say, most of the country isn’t buying it.  Survey after survey has shown that most Americans believe that the economy is on the wrong track.  But those that are running things continue to push their “booming economy” narrative anyway, and I suppose that will continue all the way through the election in November.  Of course anyone with half a brain should be able to see the truth, because day after day we just continue to get more troubling economic numbers.  For example, it is being reported that U.S. corporate bankruptcies “spiked” during the month of August… Read More

09.13.24- "This New Engine Will End Electric Cars," says Toyota CEO About his Creation
Beyond Discovery

View Video

09.12.24- “Joy” is going to drive gold prices
to absurd levels
James Hickman

Taylor Swift’s announcement pretty much said it all.

After last night’s Presidential debate, the pop star publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because “she is a steady-handed, gifted leader” who fights for “LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body. . .”

I really try to keep an open mind and understand other people’s opinions. But I personally have an extremely difficult time comprehending how someone thinks abortion and LGBTQ rights are the most important problems facing the country right now. Read More

09.11.24- “All I see is Red”
Greg Guenthner

September strikes again!

After just a handful of trading days, I’m here to report that this month is going much like many investors feared…

Stocks are skidding lower at an alarming rate so far this month and traders are running for cover, buying up safety trades like utilities and consumer staples names as tech stocks and other popular plays continue to dive. Read More

09.10.24- DON’T Trust the Polls
Jim Rickards

As my longtime readers know, I’m a financial forecaster who prefers to focus on markets.

But because politics can have such a large influence on markets, I can’t afford to ignore politics. So I’ll be focusing a lot on the November election in the next two months.

Today we’ll be looking at the candidates’ platforms, along with polling results and methodologies. Read More

09.09.24- Preparing For A Crash? Warren Buffett Has Been Selling Off Hundreds Of Millions Of Shares In 2024
Michael Snyder

Warren Buffett did not become a billionaire by being stupid.  According to Forbes, Buffett is worth more than 144 billion dollars, and that makes him one of the wealthiest men in the entire world.  He made his money in the stock market, and so why is he now pulling money out of the stock market at a feverish pace?  Does he anticipate that a crash is coming?  Earlier this year, Buffett shocked the investing community when his company sold off half the Apple shares that it was holding…Read More

09.07.24- Layoffs Jump To Highest Levels
Since 2009
George Gammon

View Video

09.06.24- September
Brian Maher

The Worst Month for Stocks

Here in Annapolis summer’s fever has broken.

Deep azure vaults high overhead… and refrigerating wafts steal in from the Chesapeake Bay.

All is peace. Read More

09.05.24- Inflation Leaves the Middle Class Too Poor to Shop at Dollar Stores
John Carney

Inflation Chops Down Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree’s latest earnings report offers a grim reflection on the state of the American economy. What we are witnessing is not just a minor fluctuation in retail performance, but a broader indictment of an economy that, under the stewardship of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, has manifestly lost its way. Read More

09.04.24- US Futures Slide, As Global Market Rout Extends For Second Day
Tyler Durden

US stock-index futures fell, pointing toward a continued selloff on Wall Street after a slump Tuesday, when dire manufacturing PMI and ISM data led to renewed concern that a recession may be looming. Futures on the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index declined 0.8% at 8.00 am ET, as NVDA extended its record losses which saw a historic $280 billion in market cap wiped out in Tuesday's session, after a Bloomberg report hit just after the close that Kamala's DOJ sent subpoenas to the chipmaker. Read More

09.03.24- America's Real Estate Market Is on the Verge of Collapse
Peter Reagan

What’s going on with housing? Home sales plunge to a record low – record high prices in many parts of the nation, combined with steep mortgage rates have led to a standoff between buyers and sellers. How much is a home really worth if no one can buy it?

Today there is corporate media spin that the overall rate of inflation is “easing” for everything in the CPI basket of goods. Read More

09.02.24- Holiday Weekend Rant:
The Sane vs. the Insane
James Howard Kunstler

The alliance between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump is many things.

But first it’s an all-clear signal to a large class of less-than-fully brain-damaged Americans that it’s OK to quit being insane. As you know, this election is no longer a battle between the political left and right. It’s an epic struggle-session between the sane and the insane. Read More

08.31.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Could the Zionist State of Israel Disappear Within a Year?
Chuck Baldwin

In a stunning interview with Judge Andrew Napolitano, former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson quotes high-level Israeli government officials as stating their concern that if Israel maintains its current warmongering ways, the Zionist State could disappear within one year. Johnson also describes the radical religious zealotry of many Israelis behind the nation’s infatuation with war. (A very similar zealotry exists within a majority of evangelical churches, by the way.) Read More

08.30.24- Dollar General Crashes Most On Record After Management Warns Of "Financially Constrained Core Customer"
Tyler Durden

Dollar General shares plummeted by as much as 26% as the US cash trading session got underway, marking the steepest intraday decline ever. 

Shares crashed to early 2018 levels. 

Dismal earnings sparked the record drop in DG's share price. Read More

08.29.24- Older Office Towers In Cities Face "Tsunami Of Trouble"
Tyler Durden

Commercial real estate market challenges are more severe for older office towers in downtown metro areas than those outside city centers. The mismatch between funding needs and available credit in a high-interest-rate environment has also intensified the strain on building owners, as elevated tower vacancy rates persist across many markets due to the ongoing trend of remote work becoming the norm. Read More

08.28.24- Rickards Issues Avalanche Warning
Jim Rickards

Remember the Aug. 5 mini-crash? Well, investors apparently don’t.

It seems like a distant memory at this point, as the “buy the dip” theme is a deeply entrenched force in today’s market.

Well, I’m afraid that this Wednesday, Aug. 28, they’re about to get a stark reminder. Only this time, it’ll be far worse. Today, I’ll show you why.

First off, why are stocks going up? The simple answer is that the market’s in a bubble. There are a couple of things to consider…Read More

08.27.24- Decoding the Deep State
Jeffrey Tucker

Years ago as an intern in D.C., and long before the agencies all locked their doors to visitors, I had the occasion to putter around the Department of Transportation and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

These were obviously not normal workplaces. To my amazement, they were mostly dark, empty and quiet, and the employees did not seem in the slightest bit busy doing anything at all. It was like a soulless blob. It was just so…mundane. It was all kind of spooky.Read More

08.26.24- The Fable of the Economic
“Soft Landing”
Frank Shostak

According to some commentators, to counter inflation interest rates in the US must increase to a level that effectively restrains the economy. It is held that this increase in interest rates does not have to cause a recession if Fed’s policy makers could orchestrate a “soft landing.” The economy is portrayed as a spaceship that occasionally deviates from a path of “stable” economic growth and “stable” prices. All that is required to fix the problem is for the central bank to give a suitable “push” to the economy (i.e., the spaceship) to bring it back to the right growth path. Read More

08.24.24- The Dark Investing Secret the Bears Won’t Tell You
Graham Summers, MBA

The crash callers and bears just got a major lesson.

It’s a lesson that all investors have to learn at some point. Indeed, the only investors who actually make money from the markets are those who have learned that lesson and integrated its outcomes to their investing strategies.

The lesson?

Bears don’t make money. Read More

08.23.24- “Your Cynicism Is Sickening”
Brian Maher

Aspiring presidential nominee Harris has gurgled about price controls on food.

Yesterday we shouted harshly against them.

We argued that price controls brought with them economic maladies far worse than their supposed cures.

Specifically, that shortages are their inevitable fruit — their sour fruit. Read More

08.22.24- Wall Street Outraged Over Latest Epic F*ck Up By Biden's Labor Department
Tyler Durden

It's delightfully fitting that on the day the entire financial world was holding its breath for Biden's highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics to admit it had massively fucked up the jobs data over the past year, that Biden's highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics fucked up even more. Read More

08.21.24- Why Gold Price Ripping is Giving Us Big Clues About
Financial System Crashing
Lyn Alden

View Video

08.20.24- Stepping back from the eco-woke communist abyss
James Hickman

I’m currently en route to Chile, where I lived for about eight years from 2011-2018 before moving to Puerto Rico.

I remember when I first came down to Chile— the thing I found so remarkable was that it was a relatively conservative place, especially by Latin American standards. Back then the general tone was that you were pretty much left alone to do your thing. Read More

08.19.24- What Would “Kamalanomics” Do To The U.S. Economy?
Michael Snyder

She should have just kept her mouth shut about the economy.  I know that sounds harsh, but it is true.  The best chance that Kamala Harris had of winning was to stand for nothing.  I am being completely serious.  For the first few weeks of her campaign, she was being showered with positive coverage by the mainstream media even though she had not come forward with any serious policy proposals.  She could have probably continued doing that all the way to election day in November, but now she has ruined her campaign by telling us what she actually plans to do if she becomes president. Read More

08.17.24- Kamala’s vision for the most expensive real estate in the world
James Hickman

Just as Peter predicted on Wednesday after the monthly inflation report came out, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris almost immediately went into self-congratulatory mode to brag about how great they are at managing the economy.

As President Biden told a gathering of reporters on Wednesday, “I said we’re gonna have a soft landing. We’re gonna have a soft landing. My policies are working.” He then commanded them to “start writing that way”, and we have no doubt their lackeys in the media will dutifully comply. Read More

08.16.24- ‘Fools, Drunkards and the United States of America’
Brian Maher

Mr. Barry Ritholz of the eponymous Ritholtz Wealth Management:

We were warned that deficit spending would crowd out private capital, choke off innovation and new company formation; it will send the costs of U.S. borrowing skyrocketing higher, making the debt impossible to manage; force the U.S. dollar to be radically devalued against all other currencies, thereby devastating the U.S. economy; cause rampant inflation, spiking prices to levels not seen before; last, act as a drag on the overall economy.

That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. Read More

08.14.24- A Wartime Calm before the Storm
David Haggith

Recession keeps slowly advancing even as inflation retreats, but the retreat may be a ruse, as might be Iran's calm ahead of its promised attack on Israel.

We’ve got two things to cover today—the latest news on the economy because that is primarily what my site is about and the conflict in Israel. The parts are labeled so you can easily skip to the part you’re most interested in. Both appear to be in a slight lull compared to what was anticipated, but don’t count on the lull lasting. Read More

08.13.24- Markets Need A Lot More Than A Rate-Cut
Daniel Lacalle

The recent market weakness suggests a combination of profit-taking and concerns about the latest United States jobs and manufacturing figures, added to the abrupt unwinding of part of the yen carry trade. Valuations had soared and market participants now demand central bank easing. However, rate cuts may not be enough to send markets to new all-time highs. Money supply growth and quantitative easing are needed to maintain these valuations. Read More

08.12.24- Airbnb Houses Are About to
Flood the Market
John Rubino

New players will make this housing bust one for the record books

The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are:

• Boomers forced by declining health and/or shrinking stock portfolios to sell their McMansions. Read More

08.10.24- Earnings Call Mentions Of "Consumer Downturn" Soar To Highest Level Since Financial Crisis
Tyler Durden

Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Feiler told clients this AM the consumer is experiencing a "noticeable slowdown, moderation, or whatever term we choose to use—it's quite evident by now." 

Across industries—from luxury brands, airlines, and travel companies to fast-food chains, theme parks, and consumer goods companies—profit warnings and management teams have signaled that a consumer slowdown continues to gain momentum. Read More

08.09.24-How to Catch a Falling Knife
MN Gordon

“On two occasions I have been asked [by members of Parliament], ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine the wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’  I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.”

– Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher (1864)

Do you add glue to your pizza to keep the cheese from slipping off? Read More

08.08.24- The Housing Market is Crashing – Rate Cuts Won’t Help
Dave Kranzler

The following commentary is from the August 4th issue of my Short Sellers Journal weekly newsletter. Click on that link to get more informations. The charts below are through August 2nd. In the August 11th issue I’ll be reviewing Builder Firstsource’s Q2 numbers and explaining why I think it will be a highly profitable short (or use of puts) $BLDR. 

Housing market update – Redfin posted data this past week that reflects the degree to which home sales activity is tanking. In June, 15% of home purchase contracts were canceled and 20% of listings nationwide had price cuts. Read More

08.07.24- Turbulence Ahead! Big Ups and Bigger Downs to Come.
David Haggith

There are no straight roads to economic ruin.

One reader asked me after yesterday’s article on the historic market meltdown whether I thought the stock market would bounce back up to nearly make a full recovery. I responded as follows:

There is still a lot of Fed money floating around, and plenty of people will do all they can to game markets up if they can. We'll have to see tomorrow, though, if their efforts hold. Things may get volatile and bounce around for awhile; but the interesting point is not so much whether stocks crash or not but the reason for the huge stock drops today being everyone suddenly concerned about recession and about the turn in labor, particularly bringing up the Sahm Rule. Read More

08.06.24- The Great Rotation Is Underway
Zach Scheidt

A seismic shift is rumbling through the financial markets in the second half of 2024. That’s right. Let’s break it all down…

As I’m sure you know, the Fed held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting. That was no surprise.

But after years of tightening, the Fed is finally expected to pivot toward rate cuts, quite possibly in September. Read More

08.05.24- The Wheels Have Started To Come Off For The U.S. Economy, And The Worst
Is Yet To Come
Michael Snyder

For a long time, there was a lot of denial about the direction that the U.S. economy was heading.  The Biden administration and the mainstream media just kept insisting that everything was just fine even though everyone could clearly see that it wasn’t.  But now reality is setting in.  Last week we got some numbers that Wall Street really didn’t like, and a massive temper tantrum ensued.  The panic that we witnessed on Friday was quite breathtaking, and many are concerned that it could bleed over into the new week.  Investors are desperate for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but so far the Fed has not moved. Read More

08.03.24- Rock-Solid Gauge Says we are FULLY IN Recession, and Commercial Real Estate Has Plunged Deep into Financial Crisis
David Haggith

There is a little here that is extremely important for everyone and a lot here that is even more important for a privileged few.

While the “plunge protection team” appeared to have pulled the market out of its crash after my writing yesterday, the Dow is down a much harder 950 points this morning. So, it may prove a little harder to save; but put nothing past this lunatic market or the Fed’s PPT. Stocks seem to want to fall hard right now. So do Treasury yields, where the 10YR yield is plummeting. Read More

08.02.24- Dollar Debasement Ad Infinitum
MN Gordon

If there’s one thing to understand about what’s going on in the political economy today, it is the fundamentals of debt.  You do not need to be a bean counter or get too deep into the weeds to get a handle on things.

What you must understand is this.  Debt – public and private – has grown to such massive extremes that it will never be repaid.

But it will be settled one way or another.  Through default or inflation, or a combination thereof.  Moreover, the impending debt reconciliation will be legendary. Read More

08.01.24- The technocratic fallacy
Adnan Al-Abbar

An often-repeated saying among Arabs, widely believed to be the panacea to our political ills, goes like this: “The right person in the right position” by which we mean that if we insert the most qualified person for a specific job, many of the problems affected would be solved. This is a strong phrase since it seems to be irrefutable. After all, should we otherwise put the “wrong” person in any position? Conversely, should we not create the right positions for the right people? Read More

07.31.24- Revising away the Recession
David Haggith

The incumbent government's job-one in an election year is to make all news read like we've gone in the right direction, but where are we really headed?

In today’s news, John Rubino puts us on “recession watch,” confirming the things from his perspective that I’ve been saying about our slow slide into recession, despite how the latest “real” GDP report from the Biden administration turned out, which I think was a lot less than “real.” Read More

07.30.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Manufactured Uncertainty
Jeff Thomas

For many years, I’ve described a period that I envisaged to be in the future, in which much of what was considered “normal” would change dramatically.

The borders of some countries would change. The types of governments that ruled over them would change. In some cases, they would morph slowly into new entities; in others they would change suddenly. Read More

07.29.24- Markets Would Be A "Smoldering Ruin" If Manipulation Ended
Ed Steer

View Video

07.27.24- Weekend Rant: Saving Our Democracy
James Howard Kunstler

“Being insane is the new normal.” — Aimee Terese on “X”

However it happened this week, “Joe Biden” passed the blowtorch to a new generation and got himself gone from the political battlefield. Delegates to the coming Democratic National Convention (August 19) were duly notified of the selected replacement, Veep Kamala Harris, and ordered to line up behind her. Not a peep of disagreement was heard among them. Amazing that no one had a different idea. Thus, is democracy saved. Read More

07.26.24- The “Picks and Shovels” AI Investment is absurdly cheap. It won’t last.
James Hickman

In 1848, a 29-year-old Sacramento shop owner named Samuel Brannan was tending the cash register at his store when a pair of shoppers asked if they could pay him in gold.

Brannan was stunned when the shoppers pulled out solid gold nuggets. The gold, they said, had been found at Sutter’s Mill, about 35 miles northeast of Sacramento. Read More

07.25.24- Stock Market Chaos
Engulfs the Mightiest
David Haggith

And it's all the economy's fault. Well, that and the fault of everyone who ignored basic truths about the economy in order to price stocks far above all rational sense.

Today was a big ugly one for the stock market. Stocks cratered, and, for once, it wasn’t because the Fed suddenly sounded like it wasn’t going to provide the high-sugar candy of lowered interest to juice up the market. This time it was due to economic fundamentals—the kind of fundamentals you see during a recession—terrible earnings that came in below expectations. Read More

07.24.24- You’re Soaking in It
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Are we the only sane people on the planet? Let’s not be shy: regardless of short-term action, we ultimately expect the S&P 500 to fall by more than half, and the Nasdaq by two-thirds. Shorter term, we have another story. We can say without hesitation that this market looks similar in nearly every respect to the 1929, 1968 and 1972 tops, but the finer interpretation becomes less clear. Is the current market like October 1929, or is it more like, April? If it’s like April, then we’ve got a few months of advances ahead of us. Is the current market like the November 1968 top? If so, the ‘new era’ stocks didn’t start crashing until about June of 1969. Once again, it makes a difference in the short term. Read More

07.23.24- CRE Gets Strangled, Corporate Bankruptcies Highest since 2010, but Junk Bonds & Broad Financial Conditions in La-La-Land
Wolf Richter

For well over a year, there has been somewhat of a puzzle: How financial conditions, as tracked by broad measures such as the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, have been getting looser since March 2023, and are now at the loosest level since November 2021, even though the Fed has hiked policy rates to 5.5% at the top end and engaged in $1.7 trillion in QT so far in order to tighten financial conditions. Powell has been pushed many times on this point during the FOMC press conferences. Read More

07.22.24- Globalist “Guru” Claims Trump’s Re-Election Will Mean ‘The Death of Global Order’
Brandon Smith

Yuval Harari is best known as a globalist “philosopher” or “guru” closely tied to the World Economic Forum.  He is infamous for his Ted Talks and summit speeches declaring the coming abandonment of personal individualism and independence while elevating AI as the harbinger of a new technological religion.  He joyously preaches about the fusion of AI technology with the human body to give certain elitist groups the power of “gods.” His notions of the supposedly infinite abilities of algorithms to influence culture and politics are so overblown they enter into the realm of children’s fantasy. Read More

07.20.24- Biden’s Getting Dumped
Brian Maher

How will future historians come at the 2024 presidential election?

It stands every chance of being… historic.

One candidate has already endured a shooting. That he lingers on may be considered a miracle of God.

Merely three prior presidential candidates in United States history — Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Robert Francis Kennedy in 1968 and George Wallace in 1972 — were assassins’ targets ahead of the election. Read More

07.19.24- Is Today's Market Mania a Mega Meltdown?
David Haggith

And how we narrowly averted what could easily have become a MAGA meltdown, as one man tried to steal the votes of millions. Fortunately, the Secret Service did "stop the steal."

Yesterday, the Dow roared and soared, and today the Nasdaq screams and falls as money continues to roll rapidly out of high-tech growth stocks and into value stocks, almost as if forced at gunpoint to turn over the money. Today, the Nasdaq put in its worst performance in a year-and-a-half, while yesterday the Dow bested its own performance by more than it has in over a year. That kind of turnover is typically a sign that investors are seeing trouble for the economy and are gearing down. Perhaps, the stealth recession that no one wanted to believe in is becoming a little more apparent. Read More

07.18.24- Gold Prices Forecast: 93% Chance of September Fed Rate Cut Boosts XAU/USD
James Hyerczyk

Gold prices are inching upward on Monday after reversing earlier gains, with the precious metal testing resistance near recent highs. Traders are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and dollar movements while awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials and crucial economic data. Read More

07.17.24- Walgreens to close THOUSANDS more pharmacy stores due to rampant theft,
collapsing economy under Biden
Ethan Huff

Over the next couple of years, pharmacy chain Walgreens will close another 2,150 or so stores, CEO Tim Wentworth told the Wall Street Journal on June 27.

Wentworth says there are a number of reasons for the closures, not the least of which is America's failing economy and the resultant profit losses Walgreens is seeing. There are also too many Walgreens stores located too closely together coupled with a rampant theft problem at many locations. Read More

07.16.24- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Who is JD Vance? Trump’s VP Pick
Matt Morgan

J.D. Vance is the American Dream become MAGA.

He grew up in Middletown, Ohio with an absent father, and a mother who suffered from addiction most of her life, which is why he supports much of Donald Trump’s efforts to help the poor working class. Vance grew up seeing the real effects of globalization, and the transformation of the American economy from industrialization into an information economy. His experience drove him to do something with his life.

So he entered the marines, went to Yale to study law, and then ran for Senate. Read More

07.15.24- How Corporate Bailouts
Inflate the Money Supply
Lennart Wagemans

Many claim that the problem with fractional reserve banking is that it loans money into existence. This is true, but under normal circumstances the money loaned by commercial banks disappears when loans are repaid or defaulted on, and this, therefore, doesn’t create a permanent inflation in the money supply.

Government intervention, however, converts temporary money into permanent money through bailouts like the Troubled Asset Relief Program. They purchase loans that would have been defaulted on, preventing the evaporation of credit. Read More

07.13.24- Trump’s Return: Get Ready For Chaos To Be Unleashed And Blamed On You
Brandon Smith

Yeah, it’s happening. The last half of 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most politically insane in a century and the sparks are already flying. The biggest moment of absurdity so far might be the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in which it was made abundantly clear for all the world to see that Biden is on the fast track to crazy town. We’ve been saying for four years that the guy is gone, a dementia case propped up and protected by the DNC and the media. Now, it’s undeniable: Read More

07.12.24- Why All Financial Markets Will Crash
Alasdair Macleod

It’s all about credit. Demand to fund rising government deficits and keep zombie corporations alive will drive up interest rates. I explain the consequences for currencies and financial values.

It’s all about credit

All transactions and all valuations are in credit. The key aspect of credit is that it is always matched by an obligation, or debt. Credit is extinguished when that obligation is discharged or defaulted upon. But in today’s financial systems, the repayment of debt is always in another form of credit, usually the transfer of ownership of a bank deposit, which is also credit. Read More

07.11.24- Vultures, Doomer Rumors
and Doomer Humor
David Haggith

The carnage is great and growing, but sometimes so is the exaggeration.

The venture vultures are squawking about the crash in commercial real-estate that has been accumulating with increasing speed as these hunched birds gather around the carcasses of dying corporations to pull scraps of meat off the bones, and they have a lot of time left to feed before the carnage finally ends: Read More

07.10.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democrats: Dogmatic Geniuses
or Dogs Chasing Cars?
William Sullivan

In February, I predicted that it can’t be Biden on the Democrat ticket in November, while also suggesting that Democrats were already aware of that fact, and that they were likely already scheming to replace him this summer.

Betting markets are finally agreeing with my prediction about Biden being replaced on the ticket, but I’m now wondering if I haven’t given Democrats far too much credit in assuming that their political wargames, or even that anything more than hushed musings at cocktail parties, actually included this bombshell scenario or its potential fallout.  The presidential debate and its aftermath have certainly raised questions. Read More

07.09.24- It’s All MMT: The Fraud of
“Monetary Policy”
Joshua Mawhorter

Modern monetary theory (MMT) is not convincing to most trained economists of various schools of thought. This causes many to balk at MMT and mock it, some of which is warranted as a reductio ad absurdum, especially given some of MMT’s more outlandish claims. In fact, my own thesis was an Austrian critique of MMT. Read More

07.08.24- “Glocalization”
Charles Hugh Smith

Geopolitical/financial risks are proliferating and becoming more difficult to predict or hedge for a very basic reason:

The era of global integration and accord has ended and the era of global disintegration and discord is heating up.

In historian Peter Turchin’s terminology, when everyone finds reasons to cooperate, the result is an era of accord; when everyone finds reasons not to cooperate, the result is an era of discord. Read More

07.06.24- Is the Global Inflationary Depression
Already Here?
Peter St Onge and Jeffrey Tucker

There was an oblique message buried in a New York Times story on the growing crisis in commercial real estate in cities. Yes, this is exactly the kind of article that people pass over because it seems like it doesn’t have broad application. In fact, it does. It affects the core of issues like our city skylines, how we think about urbanism and progress, where we vacation and work, and whether the big cities are drivers or drains on national productivity. 

The note mentions the “broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic.” Read More

07.05.24- 10 Signs That Global War
Is Rapidly Approaching
Michael Snyder

Are we on the verge of an apocalyptic global war in which billions of people could die?  Very few people anticipated that World War I would erupt, but it happened anyway.  And very few people anticipated that World War II would erupt, but it happened anyway.  All throughout human history, there have been wars.  Ever since the very beginning, it has just been a matter of time before major powers collide.  Unfortunately, even though very alarming warning signals are flashing all around us, most of the population of the western world seems absolutely clueless about what is really going on out there.  Read More

07.04.24- The Key ‘Lessons in Liberty’
Newt Gingrich

Historic leaders often share something important in common. They are not born great. Their greatness is a result of a lifetime of difficulty and consequential choices.

As Jeremy S. Adams discussed in his book, “Lessons in Liberty,” this is especially true for remarkable Americans. In the book, Adams details the inspiring lives of extraordinary Americans and what we can learn from them today.Read More

07.03.24- The Fix is In For the Economy
Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed just confirmed my thesis.

Over the last week, I’ve noted that Uncle Sam is the economy now. 

What I mean by this, is that the U.S. government is spending so much money, and hiring so many people, that the economy is refusing to fall into recession despite weakness in the private sector. Read More

07.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Surprise, Surprise!
James Howard Kunstler

“Joe Biden is the walking embodiment of the exhausted American Establishment. More and more people have simply lost their faith in our Ruling Class. You could scarcely have a more potent symbol of its impotence.” — Rod Dreher

Just before the weekend, a political prairie fire raced across a nation buffaloed, blind-sided, and buried deeply in bullshit, and the little critters who inhabit the landscape are still running around with their fur smoldering. What a surprise that “Joe Biden,” the mentally-disabled pretend-president, fell apart in the debate spotlight for all to see, like Captain Queeg in his fateful witness chair, or William Jennings Bryan at the Scopes trial (1925), or the Wizard of Oz when little Toto drew the curtain back — a brutal revelation of stark truth about how things actually are. Read More

07.01.24-Crash Alert: An Unbalanced Market In Three Charts
John Rubino

During a bull market, imbalances build up that seem scary but are not, in the moment, a deal-breaker. It’s only with hindsight that we look back and say, “Oh yeah, that’s where it started to change.” 

This series points out the trends that will — eventually — be the warnings we should have heeded: 

Households are overinvested in stocks Read More

06.29.24- And Now, for Somthing Entirely Different: Zombie Biden Blows It
James Rickards

There’s been so much happening over the past 24 hours that it’s hard to keep up. The Supreme Court has been releasing several key rulings that will have a major impact on American politics.

Just this morning, they overturned the so-called Chevron deference that’s been in operation since the 1980s. Chevron handed the federal bureaucracy extensive authority to interpret statutes as it sees fit. It largely removed judicial oversight of the administrative state, which was a license for rampant bureaucratic abuse. Read More

06.28.24- Another Blow To The Housing Market
Jeffrey Tucker

There’s some bad news for those hoping for a fix to the housing market. There are signs that the squeeze is going to get worse.

If you cannot think of buying a new house right now, it’s going to be harder in the future. If you are hoping to sell, it’s a great time to do so, but then you have a problem: You need to live somewhere. That’s why so many people today are frozen in place, unable to even consider moving for a better job because it means giving up a locked-in low rate for a sky-high new rate in the midst of a price explosion. Read More

06.27.24- The Emerging Commodities Supercycle
Alan Knuckman

One hundred and three steps. That’s how much I had to climb to bring my grandpa his lunch every day at the ore dock.

Marquette, Michigan is the hub of America’s iron industry. It’s where I grew up. My grandpa was the loadmaster at the town’s famous ore dock. He spent his entire career working around iron — from iron rails, to ore boats, to where he retired, in Marquette.

Some 500 million tons of the metal have shipped out from the dock since it was first established. An additional 10 million tons of iron still flow out every year. Read More

06.26.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: U.S. Plays Russian Roulette
James Rickards

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, I’ve been warning about the dangers of escalation between the U.S. and Russia. We may be about to take a serious step up the escalation ladder.

On Sunday, Ukraine launched an attack on Crimea with U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. The target was likely a military installation, quite possibly a Russian airbase. Read More

06.25.24- Dollar Takes a “Pounding”
James Rickards

You’ve probably heard that the U.S. economy is heavily “financialized.” What does that really mean? What is financialization?

It’s a big topic and not very well defined. It can refer to the dominance of financial activity over traditional business activity in goods and services. It can refer to market bubbles. It can refer to the use of financial instruments in non-traditional arenas such as warfare or political witch hunts. Read More

06.24.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democracy Is Not the Same Thing
as Freedom
Soham Patil

In our modern world, most states are democracies or at least call themselves “democratic.” The adoption of democracy is hailed as one of humanity’s greatest achievements. Once upon a time, humanity broke out of the shackles of monarchies and has never looked back since. Nowadays, all citizens in democratic countries are free and safe from despots. Except, that is far from the truth.

Democratic systems have been around for a long time. Ancient Greece comes to mind as the most prominent example of democracy in antiquity. While modern democracies are wildly different from the ones in ancient Athens, they are still susceptible to the pitfalls applicable to all democracies. Read More

06.22.24- Up!
David Haggith

This week very plainly expressed a number of the reasons inflation is going to continue to fight the Fed, underscoring everything stated in last week’s Deeper Diveabout the reasons inflation would continue to rise. One of those reasons was housing: Read More

06.21.24- The Woke Movement Is Actually Corporate Enslavement – The Culture War
Is A Fight To Stop It
Brandon Smith

I was recently watching a video by some of my favorite movie commentators in which they were lamenting the apparent death of the movie theater business. They cited a long list of recent blockbuster bombs with some confusion as to why so many films were failing. In particular, they had predicted the film ‘Furiosa’ (a feminist bait and switch movie designed to replace the more popular male Mad Max character) would do relatively well. Yet, the movie bit the dust in epic fashion. They were bewildered as to why this occurred. Read More

06.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: : Hunter Biden is Guilty,
But Who Cares?
Sean King

I admit, I wasn’t fussed about the whole Hunter Biden conviction. But I couldn’t understand why. I mean, they finally got a Democrat on something.

But Hunter Biden is such a dirtbag; gun charges don’t do him justice.

No, this isn’t the same as getting Al Capone on tax evasion. It’s more like getting Lex Luthor on a jaywalking charge. Read More

06.13.24- Texas could become the new financial center of America with launch of the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE)
Lance D Johnson

The world’s largest asset manager and one of the most successful electronic trading firms are teaming up to create a new national stock exchange right in the heart of Texas. BlackRock and Citadel Securities are teaming up to launch the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) to compete with the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. Read More

06.12.24- If Wishes Were Fishes -
a Teachable Intermezzo
James Howard Kunstler

“Together we can finish the job.” — “Joe Biden”

This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive. Read More

06.11.24- Covid, Economy & Election: QTR On Peak Prosperity
Quoth the Raven

Last week I was interviewed by the great Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperityin a wide ranging interview that covered topics like Covid, the economy and the political future of the country.

Chris was one of the only people during the onset of Covid who was looking through the mainstream media’s narrative and was doing his own research. He has a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. Read More

06.10.24- Is There A Financial Crisis Bubbling Under The Surface?
Mike Maharrey

When the Federal Reserve started raising rates, it precipitated a financial crisis. The central bank managed to paper over the problem with a bailout program, but the crisis continues to bubble and percolate under the surface.

According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios. Read More

06.08.24- A Substantial Chance Of A Major Financial Collapse & The End Of Offshored Industrialization
Gail Tverberg

Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers. Read More

06.07.24- Mortgage Rates Rise, Over 7% since Early April, Buyers Remain on Strike, Housing Market Still Frozen as Prices Are Too High
Wolf Richter

Stuck with a 6% or 7% mortgage that was supposed to be refinanced? The Fed is counting on them to help bring inflation down.

The over-7% mortgage rates seem to have become a fixture in the housing market. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.07% in the latest week, and has now been above 7% since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. During Rate-Cut-Mania, the average mortgage rate had dropped to 6.76% at the low point in early January. Read More

06.06.24- Banking Crisis, Stage Two
Jim Rickards

I’m sure you recall the banking crisis of March to May 2023.

It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits.

Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB.  Read More

06.05.24- Is America Losing?
Matthew Piepenburg

Below, we soberly assess the lessons of history and math against the current realities of a debt-defined America to ask and answer a painful yet critical question: Is America losing?

The End of History and the Last Man

In 1992, while I was still an undergrad with a seemingly endless optimism in life in general and the American Dream in particular, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a much-discussed book entitled, The End of History and the Last Man. Read More

06.04.24- Is Hyperinflation a “Solution”?
Charles Hugh Smith

This contrarian sees a strong consensus around the notion that hyperinflation is the inevitable end-game of nation-states/central banks issuing fiat currencies, i.e. currencies that are not restrained by being pegged to tangible assets such as gold reserves.

The temptation to issue (via “printing” or borrowing new currency into existence by selling sovereign bonds) more currency becomes irresistible to politicians and central bankers alike as the means to mollify every constituency, from elites to the military to commoners dependent on state-funded bread and circuses. Read More

06.03.24- Global Cocoa Shortage Much Worse Than Previously Forecasted As Prices Surge
Tyler Durden