05.31.16- Immediate Risk of Systemic Lehman Event
Jim Willie

The entire Western financial systemic, complete with USDollar-based foundation platforms, is breaking down. The breakdown is in full view, very noticeable, in almost every arena. What happened in 2008 with the Lehman Brothers failure event is currently underway with almost every single financial platform, structural entity, financial market, banking structure, and arena. In response to the Lehman killjob event, where JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs strangled the victim firm (by denying Lehman proceeds on countless asset sales), the entire Western financial system has been lashed together, tied together, and connected among its many member parts. The main parts are the big banks, which use derivative contracts to lash themselves together. They believe there is strength in numbers, which is true to some extent. Read More

05.28.16- Weekend Rant:
Your Options... To Serve, Or Be Served

Robert Gore

There are three ways for a person to obtain something of value from another person: receive it as a donation, steal it by force or fraud, or exchange for it. It’s not much of an oversimplification to say that the advance of civilization has hinged on its movement from the first two methods to the third. The right to exchange, and the right to promise as part of a future exchange—the right to contract—are now taken for granted, but those rights are delicate and a whole complex of rights, assumptions, and obligations are subsumed by them. Their intellectual foundations are being undermined as the equality of rights implicit in contract and exchange gives way to a regressive inequality of rights: servitude. Read More

05.27.16- We Have Entered
The Looting Stage Of Capitalism

Paul Craig Roberts

Germany’s Assault On The IMF

Having successfully used the EU to conquer the Greek people by turning the Greek “leftwing” government into a pawn of Germany’s banks, Germany now finds the IMF in the way of its plan to loot Greece into oblivion .

The IMF’s rules prevent the organization from lending to countries that cannot repay the loan. The IMF has concluded on the basis of facts and analysis that Greece cannot repay. Therefore, the IMF is unwilling to lend Greece the money with which to repay the private banks. Read More

05.26.16- Negative Interest Rates Set to Propel the Dow Jones to the Stratosphere?
Sol Palha

"Every man must patiently bide his time. He must wait -- not in listless idleness but in constant, steady, cheerful endeavors, always willing and fulfilling and accomplishing his task, that when the occasion comes he may be equal to the occasion." ~ Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Central bankers wanted to put the fear of God into the masses and to a large degree they have succeeded in doing so; the masses are so afraid that they continue to hoard their money and refuse to put into the market, and that is why this Bull-Market is the most hated in history. Nine years and counting and you would think by now they would have surrendered these false beliefs as the Bears have been decapitated, and the naysayers are hiding in the woodwork. Read More

05.25.16- The rise of the meta-criminal; Is the NSA manipulating the stock market?
Jon Rappoport

Trevor Timm of the Electronic Freedom Frontier dug up a very interesting nugget. It was embedded in the heralded December 2013 White House task force report on spying and snooping.

Under Recommendations, #31, section 2, he found this:

“Governments should not use their offensive cyber capabilities to change the amounts held in financial accounts or otherwise manipulate financial systems.” Read More

05.24.16- Zombie Economy Soon to Have its Zombie Epocalypse
David Haggith

This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve tried to push back up to that distant high that means new life several times, but each time the market falls into a pit again.

The market’s inability to rise without falling again is getting to be nerve racking for those who stayed in the market, trying to make it work for themselves. For Dennis Gartman, who writes the very influential Gartman Letter, last Wednesday was, in fact, one of the worst career days of his life: Read More

05.23.16- Another Stern Stock Market Crash Warning Was Just Issued by the IMF
Diane Alter

Another stern stock market crash warning was just issued from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and it’s fueling fear across global markets.

The IMF, an organization of 189 countries, is worried about the ripple effects should the United Kingdom vote to leave the European Union (EU).

A British vote to exit the EU, or “Brexit,” could have significant and negative effects on the UK economy, the IMF said last Friday. The quickly approaching Brexit voting date is June 23. Read More

05.21.16- Observations From The Heart Of Silicon Valley
Adam Taggart

The calm before the storm?

Yesterday I made the 2-hour drive back to Silicon Valley, where I lived for 15 years before moving out to the country.

I rarely go back, as I miss very little about the hyper-elite scene there. When I do, though, I feel I have a useful 'insider-now-outsider' perspective that allows me to see things there more accurately than those who live in that fishbowl 24/7. Read More

05.20.16- This S&P 500 Death Cross’ Could Be The Real Deal
Lorcan Roche Kelly

Not all “death crosses” are created equal.

In a note to clients, Intermarket Strategy Ltd. Chief Executive and Strategist Ashraf Laidi points out that the S&P 500’s 50-week moving average is falling below its 100-week moving average.

This “statistically significant” death cross has only happened twice is the past two decades, Laidi points out. Read More

05.19.16- The Eurozone is the greatest danger
Alasdair Macleod

World-wide, markets are horribly distorted, which spells danger not only to investors, but to businesses and their employees as well, because it is impossible to allocate capital efficiently in this financial environment.

With markets everywhere disrupted by interventions from central banks, governments, and their sovereign wealth funds, economic progress is being badly hampered, and therefore so is the ability of anyone to earn the profits required to pay down the highs levels of debt we see today. Money that is invested in bonds and deposited in banks may already be on the way to money-heaven, without complacent investors and depositors realising it. Read More

05.18.16- America: The Future Third World Country
Tom Chatham

The purchasing power of Americans has been unequalled for the past several decades. This has been made possible by the high paying jobs created by our manufacturing sector. These jobs insured a wealthy middle class that could buy anything they wanted.

These high paying jobs meant that some of the wealth created by making things went to the workers. Before long, corporations began working on ways to keep more of that wealth. Enter the free trade agreement. By drafting and passing a number of free trade agreements, the corporations created a way to make their goods cheaper with overseas labor and keep more of the profit for themselves and their Wall Street owners. The deep pockets of the middle class began to dry up. Read More

05.17.16- America: A Nation of Idiots
Michael Covel

Do you support bombing Agrabah?

That’s a poll question posed to American primary voters recently.

And roughly 30% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats replied “yes.”

Why does a sizeable chunk of America want to annihilate the fictional city in Disney’s 1992 film Aladdin?

Simple answer: They are brain dead. Effectively, victims of full frontal lobotomies.

They live in a fantasy… as fake as the made-up city of Agrabah that they want to carpet bomb. Read More

05.16.16- All the King's horses and all the King's men
Johnny Silver Bear

Clowns: the good, the bad, and the evil

The more things change, the more they stay the same. For those of us who have developed the bad habit of prognostication, the more they stay the same.

I have come to the conclusion, after having attempted to absorb the thoughts and prognostications of many highly intelligent people, that there are basically four groups that are involved in determining the future of the US Economy. Some of that determination is a result of either pushing or pulling, although most of it is a result of doing nothing, which is the collective contribution of the largest group. The largest group is made up of the sheeple, with the occasional good and bad clown popping up every now and then. Read More

05.14.16- Penny Mining Stocks...Rick Rule Top Picks
BNN Market Call

Long time mining financier and speculator Rick Rule took the hot seat yesterday afternoon on BNN Market Call to answer viewer questions on precious metals stocks.

Here is my summary of of the last time Rick Rule was on BNN Market Call.

Argonaut Gold – You have had a nice move in Argonaut. Might be wise to take a little money off the table if you have a profit. Lots of risk in the smaller gold companies including Argonaut. Stay in the gold trade. Read More

05.14.16- Penny Mining Stocks...Rick Rule Top Picks
BNN Market Call

Long time mining financier and speculator Rick Rule took the hot seat yesterday afternoon on BNN Market Call to answer viewer questions on precious metals stocks.

Here is my summary of of the last time Rick Rule was on BNN Market Call.

Argonaut Gold – You have had a nice move in Argonaut. Might be wise to take a little money off the table if you have a profit. Lots of risk in the smaller gold companies including Argonaut. Stay in the gold trade. Read More

05.13.16- Macy’s Crushed By Amazon, Italian Banks Crushed By Euro
John Rubino

This is a tale of changing environments and the organisms that are, as a result, dying off.

First, consider the bricks and mortar retailers. Amazon, the dominant online seller of virtually everything, reports a spectacular quarter with soaring sales and (fairly new for them) strong profits. But in a world of flat consumer spending, where families have already used up their savings, their kids’ college funds and the loose change in their sofas to make ends meet, one store’s feast is necessarily another’s famine. And the physical retailers — which require you to actually go to them in order to buy their stuff — now find the water hole dry and the trees barren of leaves. Here’s what Macy’s reported this morning: Read More

05.12.16- Stuck with dangerous dollar dominance
Mike Dolan

LONDON (Reuters) - The world is getting an object lesson on the problems of having one dominant global currency and even the supposed prime beneficiary, the United States, can see the downside.

Alarming bouts of volatility in world financial markets over the past 12 months have been rooted in a fear of what happens when a world with its highest-ever peacetime debt pile faces even a hint of higher interest rates.

Despite a constant narrative about U.S. households and banks paying down debts ever since the global credit crash eight years ago, any 'deleveraging' that did happen was more than offset by higher government, corporate and personal debt around the globe in Europe, China and across emerging markets. Read More

05.11.16- With A Historic -150% Net Short Position, Carl Icahn Is Betting On An Imminent Market Collapse
Tyler Durden

Over the past year, based on his increasingly more dour media appearances, billionaire Carl Icahn had been getting progressively more bearish. At first, he was mostly pessimistic about junk bonds, saying last May that "what's even more dangerous than the actual stock market is the high yield market." As the year progressed his pessimism become more acute and in December he said that the "meltdown in high yield is just beginning." It culminated in February when he said on CNBC that a "day of reckoning is coming." Read More


It appears Russia is close to taking the next big step towards de-dollarization and killing the petro-dollar as VladimirPutin’s “dream” of ruble-based pricing of its domestically-produced oil is on the verge of realization. SPIMEX (The St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange) is actively courting international oil traders to join its emerging futures market, which as Bloomberg reports, is designed “to create a system where Russian oil is priced and traded in a fair and straightforward way.” Read More

05.09.16- The Bull Market in Stocks May Be Done
Ryan Cristian

It has come to my attention that, perhaps, the great stock bull market is done. To most people, a bull market is good, and its end is bad. After all, a rising market signifies ahealthyeconomy. Investors aremaking money. And it seems to prove that the free market is validated, able to deliver miracles despite Obamacare. Share prices are connected to business productivity, aren’t they?

The Stock Market and the Economy

In a free market they are, of course. However—and this cannot be said too often—we don’t have a free market. We havemonetary policy. This is how our central planners try tostimulateus. They create awealth effect. Read More

05.07.16- Coming Bank Run Will Send Gold to $3,000+
Dan Steinhart

You’re alone in a foreign country, far from your hotel.

You reach in your pocket to grab your wallet. It’s gone…

All your cash, credit cards, and debit cards are in it.

You can’t buy food…or a cab ride…or anything.

You try not to panic. What will you do?

This feeling, multiplied by 1,000, is what a bank run feels like. Read More

05.06.16- Rail Traffic Depression: 292 Union Pacific Engines Are Sitting In The Arizona Desert Doing Nothing
Michael Snyder,

We continue to get more evidence that the U.S. economy has entered a major downturn.  Just last week, I wrote about how U.S. GDP growth numbers have been declining for three quarters in a row, and previously I wrote about how corporate defaults have surged to their highest level since the last financial crisis.  Well, now we are getting some very depressing numbers from the rail industry.  As you will see below, U.S. rail traffic was down more than 11 percent from a year ago in April.  That is an absolutely catastrophic number, and the U.S. rail industry is feeling an enormous amount of pain right now.  This also tells us that “the real economy” is really slowing down, because less stuff is being shipped by rail all over the nation. Read More

05.05.16- US economy is headed for a recession
Dr. Jack Rasmus, Ph.D

The United States is experiencing its fifth relapse in five years.

This past week the U.S. government announced the contry’s economy rose in the January-March 2016 at a mere 0.5 percent annual growth rate. Since the U.S., unlike other countries, estimates its GDP based on annual rates, that means for the first quarter 2016 the U.S. economy grew by barely 0.1 percent over the previous quarter in late 2015.

Growth this slow indicates the US economy may have “slipped into ‘stall speed’, that is, growth so weak that the economy loses enough momentum and slides into recession”, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase. Read More

The Brink of Economic Collapse? How Did This Happen?
Michael Lombardi

On virtually every alternative news site you visit these days—and many mainstream sites as well—you will find predictions of economic collapse and coming calamity. The bizarre thing is not that these articles exist, but rather that we have somehow adapted to them and taken them in stride. In this essay, I have set out to determine how this came about—how did one of the most developed and educated civilizations in history come so close to the economic brink?

I was especially curious to determine if the core mechanics of demand and supply, the stuff you learn in the first 10 minutes of your very first lecture in Economics 101, were still functioning as they should be… Read More

05.03.16- The End Of America?: 13 Catastrophic Events Which Could Soon Lead To An American Apocalypse
Michael Snyder

Is the strongest and most powerful nation on the planet headed for an apocalypse which will bring it to its knees?  We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and apocalyptic themes have become very common in books, movies, television shows and video games.  It is almost as if there is an unconscious understanding on a societal level that something very big and very bad is coming, even if the vast majority of the population cannot specifically identify what that is going to be.  Last week, the Global Challenges Foundation released a new report entitled “Global Catastrophic Risks 2016” in which they discussed various apocalyptic events that they believe could wipe out more than 10 percent of the population of our planet, and they warned that these types of events “are more likely than we intuitively think”Read More

05.02.16- What the Heck is Going on With the Dollar and “Fear?”
Wolf Richter

Gold jumped 2.2% on Friday to $1,294.90 an ounce. It’s up nearly 5% for the week and hit the highest price since January 2015.

Silver rose 1.7% on Friday to $17.80 an ounce. During the day, it kissed the highest price since January 2015. It has jumped 15% in April.

The yen, which the Bank of Japan successfully crushed for a while, has re-soared, from ¥126 to the dollar in June last year to ¥112 by last Wednesday morning in Tokyo. At that point, the BOJ announced that it would keep its scorched-earth campaign of negative interest rates and money printing unchanged, rather than adding to it. This disappointed the hedge fund community that had been cocksure that the BOJ would throw more fodder their way. Read More

04.30.16- This Index is Screaming a U.S. Dollar Decline
Grayson Schultze

The dollar has an opportunity to make history. After three straight years of gains, strategists are forecasting the US currency will be a world beater again in 2016, strengthening against seven of 10 developed world peers by the end of the year.  – Median estimate from Bloomberg Survey

Two data points may establish a trend. Three can confirm the trend – with a margin of error.

But what happens when six data points line up in the same direction?

It’s a full-blown, screaming signal. Read More

04.29.16- Economy In Decline: Apple Reports Massive Revenue Decline As IPhone Sales Plummet Dramatically
Michael Snyder

(RINF) – Corporate revenues in the United States have beenfalling for quite some time, but now some of the biggest companies in the entire nation are reporting extremely disappointing results.  On Tuesday, Apple shocked the financial world by reporting that revenue for the first quarter had fallen 7.4 billion dollars compared to the same quarter last year.  That is an astounding plunge, and it represents the very first year-over-year quarterly sales decline that Apple has experienced since 2003.  Analysts were anticipating some sort of drop, but nothing like this.  And of course last week we learned that Google and Microsoft also missed revenue and earnings projections for the first quarter of 2016.  The economic crisis that began during the second half of 2015 is really starting to take hold, and even our largest tech companies are now feeling the pain. Read More

Consumers, Small-Business Owners Souring on This Economy
Wolf Richter

Consumer optimism about the economy is waning, and small-business-owner sentiment is giving off recession vibes. That’s how different surveys are now mucking up the rosy scenario.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, released today, added another dimension. It dropped four points in the week ending April 24, to -16, the lowest since August 2015, and down from positive territory in January 2015. Read More

04.27.16- Decline of the Anglosphere is the Result of Deliberate Planning
Daily Bell

Barack Obama and the end of the Anglosphere … When supporters of the Vote Leave campaign sketch out a future for Britain outside the EU, they often point to the Anglosphere of English-speaking nations — bequeathed by Britain’s imperial past. So Barack Obama’s intervention in Britain’s EU referendum last week was a potentially devastating moment for the Brexit campaign. – Financial Times

This fascinating article openly explores the diminishment of Anglosphere power. It is especially important because it positions the subsiding as an evolutionary trend rather than what it really is: a deliberate policy. Read More

04.26.16- The New Monetary Accord
No One’s Talking About

James Rickards

The currency wars started in 2010 with the weak Chinese yuan. Barely a week went by without Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner complaining about Chinese currency manipulation and the weak yuan.

By 2011, China was doing better and the U.S. was stuck in a rut of low growth coming out of the 2008–2009 recession. This necessitated a weak dollar to give the U.S. economy a lift in the form of higher exports, more jobs in the export sector and more inflation due to higher import prices. Read More

04.25.16- Is This The End Of The U.S Dollar? Geopolitical Moves "Obliterate U.S Petrodollar Hegemony"
Mac Slavo

It seems the end really is nigh for the U.S. dollar.

And the mudfight for global dominance and currency war couldn’t be more ugly or dramatic.

The Saudis are now openly threatening to take down the U.S. economy in the ongoing fallout over collapsing oil prices and tense geopolitical events involving the 9/11 cover-up. The New York Times reports: Read More

04.23.16- The United States of Insolvency
James Grant

This much I have learned about debt after 40 years of writing and study: It is better not to incur it. Once it is incurred, it is better to pay it off.

America, we have a problem.

We owe more than we can easily repay. We spend too much and borrow too much. Worse, we promise too much. We conjure dollar bills by the trillions — right out of thin air. I won’t insist that this can’t go on, because it has. I only say that it will eventually stop. Read More

04.22.16- Why is the Stock Market so Strong?
Pater Tenebrarum

Dismal Earnings, Extreme Valuations

The current earnings season hasn’t been very good so far. Companies continue to “beat expectations” of course, but this is just a silly game. The stock market’s valuation is already between the highest and third highest in history depending on how it is measured.

Corporate earnings are clearly weakening, and yet, the market keeps climbing. The rally is a bit of a “all of worry” type of phenomenon actually, since many of the negatives are of course widely known. Read More

04.21.16- The ECB and shadow banking
Alasdair Macleod

Markets have fully adjusted to a financial world which reflects the leadership and management of money by central banks, and are increasingly frightened of any prospect of their control failing.

Every time the system stumbles, the response has been for central banks to force greater control and regulation upon the monetary system to the detriment of free markets. It is the financial version of the Road to Serfdom. Central banks have become ill-equipped to allow markets to price risk, and in the case of the ECB, it is downright hostile to market-determined prices. Read More

04.20.16- Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It’s 2008 All Over Again
Michael Snyder

The Dow closed above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since July.  Isn’t that great news?  I truly wish that it was.  If the Dow actually reflected economic reality, I could stop writing about “economic collapse” and start blogging about cats or football.  Unfortunately, the stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now.  Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.  In fact, this wave of debt defaults have become so dramatic that even USA Today is reporting on itRead More

04.19.16- Forget Shorting Mortgage Bonds: Short the Whole Country
William L. Anderson, Ph.D

Having become a fan of Michael Lewis’ The Big Short (after watching the movie on DVD), I am fascinated at how some savvy Wall Streeters found a way to short mortgage bonds which were on their way to becoming toxic securities. Granted, anyone with a brain should have known that the go-go mortgage market of a decade ago was unsustainable, but I’m not sure that many people with brains, economically speaking, still reside in the United States.

(For the record, I told members of the Allegany County, Maryland, board that assess houses for property tax purposes in May 2006 that the housing market they presently were experiencing was a bubble that was not going to last much longer, and that they should not make future revenue projections based on the present experience. Read More

04.18.16- Is Silver Getting Ready To Rip Higher?
Dave Kranzler

The big buzz yesterday in the precious metals market was the news that Deutsche Bank has agreed to settle charges for its role in manipulating the London Bullion Marketing Association (LBMA) daily gold/silver price fixings. My view on this, albeit admittedly jaded, is that it is akin to the settlement charges being paid by the big Wall Street banks for their fraudulent behavior in the housing bubble mortgage market. Although Deutsche Bank has agreed to “spill the beans” on other banks, I have yet to hear any mention of JP Morgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs or any number of other western bullion banks who engage in daily price intervention in the gold and silver futures market on the Comex. Read More

04.16.16- Weekend Rant:
Why All Central Planning Is Doomed to Fail

Bill Bonner

Positivist Delusions

We’re still thinking about how so many smart people came to believe things that aren’t true. Krugman, Stiglitz, Friedman, Summers, Bernanke, Yellen – all seem to have a simpleton’s view of how the world works.

A bunch of famous people with a simpleton view of how the world works…who not only seriously think the economy can and should be “planned”, but arrogantly believe they are the ones who should do it. It’s a bit like the crazy guy who doesn’t know he’s crazy. Read More

04.15.16- Why This Economy Is Now Running Aground
Wolf Richter

Business sales worst since 2012, inventories at crisis level, jobs next.

Total business sales fell again in February, the Commerce Department reported today. They include sales by manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers of all sizes across the US economy. This measure is far broader than the aggregate sales by publicly traded companies, which too have been falling. Read More

04.14.16- How to Profit as the New Gold Standard Takes Hold
Justin Spittler

Has Doug Casey convinced the government to bring back the gold standard?

Over the past two weeks, Doug has been working on a special project. He’s spent a lot of time with high-ranking government officials, trying to persuade them to back the currency with gold. Believe it or not, the government is taking Doug’s ideas seriously…

Unfortunately, we’re not talking about the U.S. government. As you may know, America gave up on the gold standard in 1971. Prior to that, folks could exchange their U.S. dollars for a fixed amount of gold. This kept the government honest and prevented it from printing too much money. Read More

04.13.16- The Probability Of The Economic Collapse Happening This Year Is Increasing
Chris Martenson

View Video

04.12.16- Dead Canaries And Disobedient Falcons: Bad Month Coming, Especially For Banks
John Rubino

Corporate profitability is one of the canaries in today’s financial coal mine. If companies are making more money each year they tend to hire more people, pay more taxes and generally make life easier for everyone else. But when earnings decline, everything from government budgeting to personal financial planning gets much harder.

Viewed through this lens, 2015 was a “coming to grips” year in which the financial markets vacillated over the meaning of falling corporate profits: Are they an aberration or the new normal? Read More

04.11.16- Declining Profits, Rising Defaults Assure 2016 Recession
David Haggith

I believe a 2016 recession is already a fact in the US, and the Great Recession will return with a vengeance. That recession never really ended. It was simply propped up while all of its fundamental flaws remained, and the props are now all ended or failing. It will ultimately become the mother of all recessions. Even the Great Depression has nothing up on what we are now entering.

GDP estimates are increasingly moving in favor of my prediction that the US has been entering a recession since the start of 2016. (Keep in mind recessions are always declared after the fact — after quarterly statistics are in. That’s why I call it a “prediction,” even though I say we have already entered it. Read More

04.09.16- Japanese Citizens Flee Tokyo En Masse Following Fukushima Disaster
Sean Adl-Tabatabai

The elite and wealthy in Tokyo are evacuating en masse due to dangerous levels of radiation following the Fukushima meltdown. 

One nuclear expert has warned people that they should not only leave Tokyo, but evacuate Japan altogether if they have the financial means to do so.

Agreenroad.blogspot.fr reports:

She said that she would leave, if she could afford to do so. To find out more about this mega nuclear accident that has been mostly covered up, see; Nuclear Accidents, Recycling, Nuclear Fuel Read More

04.08.16- Stock Market Last Gasp: Could Equities Jump Up Hard?
Daily Bell Staff

The $1 Trillion Short Underlying Stocks’ Spring … Short interest reaches highest level since 2008 despite gains … Level is contrarian bullish, sets up powerful rally, says BofA

… A funny thing has happened in the U.S. stock market, where rather than loosen their grip bears have grown ever-more impassioned. They’ve sent short interest to an eight-year high and above $1 trillion, by one analyst’s math. -Bloomberg

Could the stock market move up hard in these upcoming months? Sometimes contrarian sentiment is an indicator of an unexpected stock market rise. And bearish sentiment is overwhelming at the moment, as you can see from the above Bloomberg excerpt. Read More

04.07.16- Swiss and Eurozone Trade Anomalies
Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler emphasizes the discrepancies between overvalued franc and – despite being overvalued – the massive Swiss trade surplus. In my view, the major reason is the migration of highly qualified personnel from all over Europe to Switzerland.

It is widely recognized that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen has not lifted Japanese export volumes.

In December 2015, Japanese export volumes had fallen 4.4% year-over-year after rising 3.9% in December 2014 and 2.5% in December 2013.

These are a number of explanations for this counter-intuitive result given the yen’s past depreciation. Read More

04.06.16- Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups
Johnny Silver Bear

What can be said about the current state of the American stock market? All numbers coming from the government are false and misleading. The economy is in a shambles. If and when the Federal Reserve ceases its bolstering of the markets with money out of thin air, those markets will collapse. I predict that the collapse will be sudden, leaving most investors hanging out to dry. Depending on a criminal cartel to insure your future is moronic.

The Fiscal Cliff is not only a distraction. The "fiscal cliff" is a myth.

Instead, what we are facing is a descent into lawlessness. Read More

04.05.16- From Personal, Market Preferences to Promising Opportunities
Anthony Wile

The Daily Bell: Great to sit down with you again. It’s always good to catch up with you and find out what you’re doing. You led The Daily Bell at a time of its greatest growth, when the publication had regular, worldwide impact.

Anthony Wile: I remain very proud of what The Daily Bell became and has become. Unfortunately, I simply don’t have the time to run it anymore and thus it has passed into very good hands, as you know. I am glad to contribute from time to time and to watch its continued success from afar.

The Daily Bell: It’s obvious you’re busy and are involved in significant entrepreneurial efforts via The Wile Group, which you founded in Toronto and serve as its Chairman and CEO. Read More

04.04.16- Condo Bust 2.0 - Miami Sales Down 20% And Dropping Fast
Laura Kusist

Miami is facing a condo bust—again.

Developers have started canceling projects, slashing prices and offering incentives such as private-jet access to spur sales, an ominous echo of the housing crash that pounded South Florida especially hard.

Easy financing and rising prices prompted developers to build about 21,000 condos in the downtown Miami area from 2004 to 2008. Many of those units sat empty for years.

Developers say this time they have insulated themselves by requiring buyers to put down 50% deposits by the time buildings break ground and by canceling projects instead of moving forward as the market slows. Read More

04.02.16- The Seeds are Sprouting for the Next Real Estate Bust
Dennis Miller

A recent Bloomberg article, “There’s Some Hope for First-Time Home Buyers” caught my attention.

“First-time homebuyers are finally jumping into the U.S. property market.

….Originations of FHA-backed mortgages, used predominately by first-time buyers, were up 54 percent in September from a year earlier….

By December, the FHA insured 22 percent of all loan originations, up from 17 percent a year earlier, according to data compiled by Ellie Mae Inc.” Read More

04.01.16- Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent
Michael Snyder

Financial experts Robert Kiyosaki and Harry Dent are both warning that the next major economic crash is in our very near future.  Dent is projecting that the Dow will fall to “5,500 to 6,000 by late 2017″, and Kiyosaki actually originally projected that a great crash was coming in 2016 all the way back in 2002.  Of course we don’t exactly have to wait for things to get bad.  The truth is that things are not really very good at the moment by any stretch of the imagination.  Approximately one-third of all Americans don’t make enough money to even cover the basic necessities, 23 percent of adults in their prime working years are not employed, and corporate debt defaults have exploded to the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis.  But if Kiyosaki and Dent are correct, economic conditions in this country will soon get much, much worse than this. Read More

03.31.16- Stag-Deflation & The Vampire Economy - Part 2
Tom Cammack

This is Part 2 of the C6 Real Misery Index series. Part 1 is found here.


  • It appears we are once again approaching the “bust” portion of the Credit Boom/Bust Cycle.

  • Stag-deflation occurs when traditional business cycles are replaced by credit-driven boom/bust cycles and leveraged assets decline in price.

  • This is the time to “sell the rallies”: Using the Japan experience to our advantage. Read More

03.30.16- Corporate Debt Defaults Explode To Catastrophic Levels Not Seen Since The Last Financial Crisis
Michael Snyder

If a new financial crisis had already begun, we would expect to see corporate debt defaults skyrocket, and that is precisely what is happening.  As you will see below, corporate defaults are currently at the highest level that we have seen since 2009.  A wave of bankruptcies is sweeping the energy industry, but it isn’t just the energy industry that is in trouble.  In fact, the average credit rating for U.S. corporations is now lower than it was at any point during the last recession.  This is yet another sign that we are in the early chapters of a major league economic crisis.  Yesterday I talked about how 23.2 percent of all Americans in their prime working years do not have a job right now, but today I am going to focus on the employers. Read More

03.29.16- Michael Hudson on Debt Deflation, the Rentier Economy, and the Coming Financial Cold War
Yves Smith

Michael Hudson has sent us the transcript of his newly-released interview with Justin Ritchie on
February 26 with XE Podcast; You can also listen to the podcast here.

Justin Ritchie: In your book, you draw this metaphor of parasites and global finance? Could you explain what you mean by this?

Michael Hudson: The financial sector today is decoupled from industrialization. Its main interface with industry is to provide credit to corporate raiders. Their objective is asset stripping, They use earnings to repay financial backers (usually junk-bond holders), not to increase production. The effect is to suck income from the company and from the economy to pay financial elites. Read More

03.28.16- Guessing the future without Say’s law
Alaisdair Macleod

With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook.

Economists lack consensus, with some expecting yet more easing, based on the apparent collapse in cross-border trade last year. The fact that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank see fit to pursue increasingly aggressive monetary reflation is taken as evidence of underlying difficulties faced in these key economies. And lingering doubts about the sustainability of China’s credit bubble point to a high risk of a credit-induced slump in the world’s growth engine. Read More

03.26.16- Will You Get Your Money Out in Time?
Justin Spittler,

The “bank account tax” is coming.

If you’ve been a Casey reader for long, you know the U.S. government has engaged in a long list of reckless acts since the 2008 financial crisis.

It has created trillions of dollars from thin airit has borrowed trillions more…and it’s held interest rates at effectively zero for seven years.

Supposedly, these extreme actions were for our own good. Bureaucrats insisted that these policies would restore economic growth. Other world governments followed the U.S.’ lead, flooding the world with easy money.Read More

03.25.16- Recession Time
Jim Rickards

In describing the dynamics of currency wars, I consistently use metaphors such as a tug of war or seesaw. This is to indicate that currency wars are never a one-way bet. Exchange rates go back and forth repeatedly.

The currency war that lasted 1921–36 is a good example. In 1921, the Germans destroyed their currency in the famous Weimar Republic hyperinflation.

In 1925, France and Belgium devalued their currencies. That made British pounds sterling and the U.S. dollar stronger. Read More

03.24.16- What Killed The Middle Class?
Charles Hugh Smith

If the four structural trends highlighted below don't reverse, the middle class is heading for extinction.

Everyone knows the middle class is fading fast. I've covered this issue in depth for years, for example: Honey, I Shrunk the Middle Class: Perhaps 1/3 of Households Qualify (December 28, 2015) and What Does It Take To Be Middle Class? (December 5, 2013)

This raises an obvious question: what killed the middle class? While many commentators try to identify one killer cause (for example, the U.S. going off the gold standard in 1971), the die-off of the middle class is more akin to the die-off in honey bees, which is the result of the interaction of multiple causes (factors that increase the toxic load dumped on bees and other pollinators by modern agriculture). Read More

03.23.16- Russians and Chinese are ditching the dollar as Europeans start using renminbi in their reserves
Simon Black

At present, US dollar accounts for roughly 61% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves.

It’s still a safe bet for most, not because the currency is actually strong, but because so many others are already so reliant on it.

Between those with reserves in and pegs to the US dollar, many countries have given their allegiance, and now have a vested interest in the health of the currency. Read More

03.22.16- This Might be the Biggest Lie in Investing
Greg Guenthner

Want to learn how to avoid losing your shirt in the market?

Then pay attention because brokers and financial advisor have been giving you one of the most god-awful pieces of advice. Most folks believe it—and unfortunately, investors like you have lost millions of dollars because of it…

So today you’re going to learn how to avoid that hideous mistake. I’ll also show you a simple trick that’ll limit your losses and let you make more money on your profitable trades. Maybe a lot more. Read More

03.21.16- A Strange Pattern Emerges When Trading The US Dollar In 2016
Tyler Durden

One of the more surprising market developments of 2016 has been the violent obliteration of those who had taken part in the biggest consensus trade of 2015, namely long the USD. As the Fed finally admitted earlier this week, the US economy is sputtering and is woefully incapable of handling 4 rate hikes, or 3 for that matter. In fact, the Fed will be lucky to push through even one more rate hike without the Chinese Yuan collapsing and unleashing even more capital outflows (which precipitated the major market swoons in the summer of 2015 and early 2016) arguably the main topic during the alleged Shanghai G-20 "central bank accord." The result: this week saw the biggest two-day USD collapse against a basked of foreign currencies in years, and currently the DXY is trading at a lower level than a year ago. Read More

03.19.16- Were My 2016 Economic Predictions of Epocalypse Wrong?
David Haggith

It appears one of my most boisterous predictions last year could be about to fail (and right at the point where it looked like a success in every detail). The current stock market rally and rise in oil prices appear to contradict my big prediction of a stock market crash that would start in December. I bet my blog on that prediction. As of Thursday, the stock market has recovered to its highest point of the year, nearly back to the point from which it fell in December. It could reach that point today (Friday). If that happens, the market will erase the damage of its crash. Read More

03.18.16- The Circus We Call the Election Process!
Bill Holter

As a rule I try not to comment all that much on politics because it is such a polarizing topic. No matter what I could say one way or the other, “politics” will turn some normally placid folks into rabid trolls. That said, what we are witnessing now has never happened before in our lifetimes and is not even about the candidates …it is about the survival of our Republic!

Immediately after turning on the business news this morning, I heard an interview of a Republican National Committee member talking about “rules”. I did not catch who it was but the essence of the interview was it did not matter who had the most votes or delegates … Read More

03.17.16- The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme
Charles Hugh Smith

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey.

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship." (Source) Read More

03.16.16- Here’s the Bounce… Is the REAL Market Collapse Just Around the Corner?
Graham Summers

When it comes to analyzing long-term trends, the 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull market vs. bear market changes.

The 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull vs. bear market changes.

Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) when stocks break above this line, they’re in a bull market. When they break below it, they’re entering a bear market. Read More

03.15.16- Bloomberg Stumbles On The "Only One Buyer Keeping The Bull Market Alive"
Tyler Durden

Last week, when Bloomberg was celebrating the 7 year anniversary of the third longest, most central bank-supported, and thus "most hated" bull market in history, it said that  "investors are awash in angst, showing little faith the run can continue. They worry about contracting corporate earnings, slowing Chinese growth and uncertainty over interest rates.

And they’re walking the talk by pulling cash from stocks at almost the fastest rate on record. It’s not unwarranted - the S&P 500 has gained just 0.5 percent in the last 18 months." Read More

03.14.16- On The Brink of Complete Meltdown
Rory Hall

We live in a time when the rule of law has been suspended for the ruling class and banking class. When the Attorney General of the United States, Eric Holder, made the following statement he turned the “too big to fail” banks into “too big to jail”. Criminal in every way imaginable.

“I am concerned that the size of some of these institutions becomes so large that it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if you do prosecute, if you do bring a criminal charge, it will have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy,” Holder said, according to The Hill. “And I think that is a function of the fact that some of these institutions have become too large.” Read More

03.12.16- The Day the Dollar Bait-and-Switch Died... Gold May Boom
Jeff Berwick

Did you know that Thursday was one of the most critical market days in recent memory, one that should be internalized by gold bulls, currency traders and equity investors alike.

It was the day the latest central banking “bait and switch” died.

What did we learn? The dollar is done tightening in any meaningful way. And the euro is done loosening.

In the past, we’d been told the opposite. The Fed was tightening and the euro was loosening. Read More

03.11.16- The Perfect Storm in Oil Prices Will Hit in the Ides of March
David Haggith

While some business / economic publications, like NewsMax are saying that, “Oil is pulling away from the market’s biggest storm in seven years,” I say, “Don’t believe it.” Not for one second. The real storm begins near the middle of March.

Because people saw that the price of oil rose and stabilized in February and that stocks followed in lockstep, they were quick to conclude the worst is over. The final days of February were, in fact, nothing more than the calm before the main storm. People were, as usual, too quick to sigh in relief, and that relief is likely to make the upset even worse when they find out how wrong they were to think the worst is over. When people believe the worst is over, and suddenly things grow even worse than they already were, they are more likely to panic. Read More

03.10.16- The Man with the Inflation Plan
Pater Tenebrarum

Proving beyond a shadow of doubt that Keynesian absurdity knows no bounds, Larry Summers has graced the FT – one of the West’s premier establishment propaganda mouthpieces advocating central economic planning as practiced by modern-day regulatory democracies – with yet another cringe-worthy editorial. it is probably no exaggeration to call the man a danger to civilization

The editorial is entitled “A world stumped by stubbornly low inflationwith a subheader reading “There is no evidence that policymakers are acting strongly to restore their credibility”. Read More

03.09.16- Precious Metals: When & Why
Maurice Jackson

Oh . . . decisions, decisions, decisions! As an investor, you have a multitude of options from which to choose on where you may deploy your capital. Should you be in Real Estate, Paper/Stocks, or Commodities? And when is the right time to invest? What are the tax implications? What tactic should you incorporate into your strategy to get your portfolio up and running?

Full Disclosure: I do not like to lose on any investment I make, nor have I met anyone that does! Had to get that out of the way. My disclaimer should not be misconstrued into believing that I am risk averse. Risk averse is when an investor is not willing to invest due to the volatility, inexperience, or fear of loss in an investment. Notice I did not use the word risk in my definition. Let’s break this down a little further shall we? Read More

03.08.16- US Stock Market Rebound -
Closing in on Resistance

Pater Tenebrarum

The Big Rotation

The recent rebound in the S&P 500 index is approaching a first area of resistance now. If it continues to roughly follow the 1962 analog which we have previously discussed (here is the chart), it should briefly back off, and then move slightly higher before rolling over again (we picked the analog because it featured a weak January open, and was preceded by a distribution phase in 1961 that looked very similar to the 2015 trading range; there is no other reason than pattern similarity, which has to be taken with a grain of salt). Read More

03.07.16- The Most Painful Part Of The Short Squeeze
May Be Yet To Come, JPM Warns

Tyler Durden

Two weeks ago, we reported that NYSE Short Interest has risen 4.5%, back over 18 billion shares near the historical record highs of July 2008 (and up 7 of the last 9 months).

We said that this dynamic means one of two things:

  • Either a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buy-in event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes, sending the S&P500 to new all time highs.Read More

03.05.16- Sunshine, Lollipops and…
Bill Gross

Our Sun – a rather tiny star in the galaxial scheme of things – seems inexhaustible. But 5 billion years from now, it will swallow, instead of nurture the Earth as it burns itself out – first contracting, then expanding like a flaming candle turned firecracker. Not to worry though. We won’t be around. It’s not that we are beyond worrying; it’s that our lives are much shorter and we needn’t think much about it. In the nearer term, there is global warming/climate change, and other such down to Earth problems as paying the bills and getting kids into the right colleges. Read More

03.04.16- We’re in the Eye of the Financial Hurricane
Justin Spittler

American stores are hurting…

Two weeks ago, we pointed out that giant retailer Wal-Mart just had its worst year since 1980. Sales fell for the first time in 35 years. The company plans to close 269 stores.

Since then, retailers have announced a flood of ugly results, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On Thursday, Kohl’s Corp. said it would close 18 stores after reporting weak sales, while Sears Holdings Corp. is looking to sell $300 million in assets after reporting yet another loss. Best Buy Co. warned of weak demand for electronics, and shares of Restoration Hardware Inc. plunged as much as 29% Thursday after it blamed poor sales on a “pullback by the high-end consumer.” Read More

03.03.16- 31% of U.S. Govt Assets Are Student Loans
Mike Flynn

Late last week, the U.S. Treasury Department released its annual financial report for the U.S. Government. The document calculates the government’s total number of assets and liabilities. Unsurprisingly, the report offered another grim picture of the nation’s fiscal health.

Tucked away in the report, however, was a surprising fact. Student loans now make up 37 percent of the total assets of the U.S. government. In some ways, a major business of the U.S. government now is getting students to take out loans to pay for college. Read More

03.02.16- U.S. Economy Is Collapsing Underneath Flood Of New Debt
Dave Kranzler

The U.S. economic system is riddled with more debt now than in 2008 when a de facto financial collapse the Great Financial Crisis occurred.   Debt behaves like printed money until the time at which the debt has to be repaid.  The Federal Government never repays the debt is issues.  It rolls over maturities while at the same time it issues more debt.  This happens every two weeks.   There’s now $19 trillion in Treasury debt outstanding.  That number was about $10 trillion when Obama took office in 2008. Read More

03.01.16- Another Garbage Rally Could Put
Double-Digit Gains in Your Pocket

Greg Guenthner

Most investors can’t adjust quickly enough to rapidly changing market conditions.

They’re paralyzed as gold breaks out and Amazon breaks down. They see it happening. But they just can’t wrap their brains around what’s going on. Instead of taking action, they retreat to their favorite “safe stocks”.

We all know the natural reaction to market turmoil is a flight to safety. We’ve seen plenty of this so far in 2016. That partly explains gold’s rally. But it’s not just gold. Low-risk consumer staples stock and utilities are both spanking the S&P 500 this year… Read More

02.29.16- Negative interest rates in the US? Just ask the FDIC.
Simon Black

Last week the FDIC released its annual financial statements, giving the public a glimpse into the financial condition of the organization responsible for backing up the entire US banking system.

The numbers are pretty incredible.

The FDIC maintains the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), which is the emergency stash for nearly all bank deposits in the Land of the Free.

DIF financial statements show an incredible 54% drop in cash equivalents since last year. Read More

02.27.16- Gold And Silver – February Heralding End Of Down Trend?
Michael Noonan

We often state that the market is replete with logic, even for those who do not know how or do not like to look at charts to explain the markets. Charts that explain developing market activity have been superior to all fundamental analysis over the last several years. For us, that statement would include for as long as charts have been maintained, starting with Japan’s rice market, a few hundred years ago. Read More

02.26.16- The Golden Chameleon
Jim Rickards

Is gold a commodity, an investment, or money?

The answer is…

Gold is a chameleon. It changes in response to the environment.Gold is making an important change right now.

At times, gold behaves like a commodity. The gold price tracks the ups and downs of commodity indices.

At other times, gold is viewed as a safe haven investment. It competes with stocks and bonds for investor attention. Read More

02.25.16- On monetary finance and platinum coins
Alasdair Macleod

It has become clear to everyone in the financial world that the monetary policies pursued by central banks have completely failed in their objectives.

Central bankers carry on regardless, continuing to ride the speeding money-train to the end of the line, a train from which jumping risks serious injury. Independent economists not working for a central bank would be blind not to see the failure, so some of them are thinking up imaginative solutions. Read More

02.24.16- Stagflation Sweeps Canada,
Threatens US

Daily Bell

Retail sales in Canada fell 2.2% in December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but not adjusted for inflation, to C$43.2 billion … But just because retail demand is crummy doesn’t mean that retail prices can’t power higher. Stagflation comes to mind. Now happening before our very eyes. And forget deflation, however much central bankers bandy the term about like a cudgel to justify their monetary policies. -WolfeStreet

Central bankers are always warning about deflation when the real danger for consumers is inflation, and more specifically stagflation – a combination of price inflation and low growth or no growth. Read More

02.23.16- Why We Won’t Have a “Lehman Moment” in the 2016 Crash
Charles Hugh Smith

One way to lose a war is to focus on preparing to fight the last war. “The last war” in 2008-09 was a battle to save heavily leveraged centralized financial institutions from default and liquidation.

There won’t be a “Lehman Moment” in the 2016 meltdown…

What the central banks cannot do is create productive places to invest the credit they’ve generated in such excess, or force qualified borrowers to swallow more unproductive debt. Read More

02.22.16- Don't Expect Economic Improvement
Filip Karinja

Given the Fed's indecisiveness on the economy, one seasoned investor is issuing a warning for what the fallout may mean for all of us

Legendary investor Jim Rogers has issued a stern warning to people around the world that the central banks have no idea what they are doing.

This week on CNNMoney, Rogers claimed,

“We’re all going to pay a horrible price for the incompetence of these central bankers… we’ve got a bunch of academics and bureaucrats who don’t have a clue what they’re doing.” Read More

02.20.16- Why the Euro Is a Doomed Currency
Doug Casey

For a long time, I’ve advocated that the world’s governments should default on their debt. I recognize that this is an outrageous-sounding proposal.

However, the debts accumulated by the governments of the U.S., Japan, Europe and dozens of other countries constitute a gigantic mortgage on the next two or three generations, as yet unborn. Savings are proof that a person, or a country, has been living below their means. Debt, on the other hand, is evidence that the world has been living above its means. And the amount of government debt and liabilities in the world is in the hundreds of trillions and growing rapidly, even with essentially zero percent interest rates. This brings up several questions: Will future generations be able to repay it? Will they be willing to? And, if so, should they? My answers are: No, no and no. Read More

02.19.16- Expanded Version: The US Economy Has Not Recovered And Will Not Recover
Paul Craig Roberts

The US economy died when middle class jobs were offshored and when the financial system was deregulated.

Jobs offshoring benefitted Wall Street, corporate executives, and shareholders, because lower labor and compliance costs resulted in higher profits. These profits flowed through to shareholders in the form of capital gains and to executives in the form of “performance bonuses.” Wall Street benefitted from the bull market generated by higher profits. Read More

02.18.16- Here's Where NIRP Leads...
Jim Rickards

The currency wars are intensifying. Out of desperation, more central banks, including Japan, are running headlong into negative interest rate policy, or “NIRP.”

Negative interest rate policy by the world’s central banks is getting out of control. The latest cut was from the central bank of Sweden, the Riksbank. Interest rates in Sweden were already negative, but the Riksbank cut them even further, from minus 0.35% to minus 0.50%. Read More

02.17.16- Repricing Reality
James Howard Kunstler

It ought to be a foregone conclusion that Mr. Obama’s replacement starting January 20, 2017 will preside over conditions of disorder in everyday life and economy never seen before. For the supposedly thinking class in America, the end of reality-optional politics will come as the surprise of their lives.

Where has that hypothetical thinking class been, by the way, the past eight years? Don’t look for it in what used to be called “the newspapers.” The New York Times has become so reality-averse that the editors traded in their blue pencils for Federal Reserve cheerleader pompoms after the Lehman incident of 2008. Every information-dispensing organ has followed their lede: The Recovery Continues! It’s a sturdy plank for promoting the impaired asset known as Hillary. Read More

02.16.16- Silver Price Forecast 2016: The Coming Silver Rally Will Be Fueled By A Crashing Dow
Hubert Moolman

It is good news for silver investors when significant nominal peaks of the Dow are formed. This is because significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least.

The two most significant nominal peaks of the Dow were in 1929 and 1973. Silver made a significant peak in 1935, about six years after the Dow’s major peak in 1929. Again, in 1980, silver made a significant peak, about seven years after the Dow’s major peak in 1973. Read More

02.15.16- Gold price soaring as economic crisis looms
Filip Karinja

What a start to 2016 it has been for the financial markets! Increased volatility appears to be the new norm.

With reports of people lining up around the block in London to get their hands on physical gold, it’s little wonder that the precious metal is outperforming other asset classes so far this year, and broke through the $1,200 barrier on Thursday.

People are sensing that another financial crisis is looming. And, with the price of oil now under $27 a barrel and stock markets plunging around the world, they are seeking protection in the “safe haven” asset class of gold. Read More

02.13.16- Investors 'go bananas' for gold bars as global stock markets tumble
Elizabeth Anderson

Bullion dealers report record sales as buyers "queue round the block" to purchase the precious metal

BullionByPost, Britain's biggest online gold dealer, said it has already taken record-day sales of £5.6m as traders pile into gold following fears the world is on the brink of another financial crisis.

Rob Halliday-Stein, founder and managing director of the Birmingham-based company, said takings today had already surpassed the firm's previous one-day record of £4.4m in October 2014. Read More

02.12.16- Global Stocks Continue To Crash As Oil Plummets And Gold Skyrockets
Michael Snyder

Stock markets around the world continue to collapse as this new global financial crisis picks up more steam.  In the U.S., the Dow lost 254 more points on Thursday, and it has now fallen for five days in a row.  European stocks continued to get obliterated, and financial institutions are leading the way.  But this week what is happening in Japan has been the most sobering.  After falling 918 points the other day, the Nikkei plunged another 760 points early on Friday.  The Nikkei has now fallen for seven of the past eight days, and investors in Japan are in full panic mode.  Overall, global stocks are well into bear market territory, and nearly 17 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has already been wiped out. Read More

02.11.16- With A Gloomy Start To 2016, A Bust Seems Just Around The Corner
Gold and Liberty

Markets have corrected substantially since the beginning of the year as most of the gains of the past two years have been erased. According to Bloomberg, 40 out of the largest 63 markets have dropped over 20%! The image below shows the performance of markets word-wide since their last peaks. Most markets are in a bear market phase or at best are experiencing a market correction. The world is red! Read More

02.10.16- What’s Booming in this Economy? Bankruptcy & Restructuring Business “Highest Since Great Recession”
Wolf Richter

It starts like this: Reuters reports that “sources” said that a company has hired “restructuring lawyers.” A sign of an impending debt restructuring, such as a bankruptcy. And shares plunge.

This is what happened Monday morning to Chesapeake Energy, the second largest natural gas producer in the US, after it was reported that it had engaged restructuring advisors Kirkland & Ellis. Shares, already reduced to near-penny-stock territory, plunged another 50% to $1.50, at which point trading was halted. Read More

02.09.16- Dot-Com Bubble 2.0 Is Bursting: Tech Stocks Are Already Down Half A Trillion Dollars Since Mid-2015
Michael Snyder

Do you remember how much stocks went down when the first dot-com bubble burst?  Well, it is happening again, and tech stocks are already down more than half a trillion dollars since the middle of 2015.  On Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped to its lowest level in more than 15 months, and it has now fallen more than 16 percent from the peak of the market.  But of course some of the biggest names have fallen much more than that.  Netflix is down 37 percent, Yahoo is down 39 percent, LinkedIn is down 60 percent, and Twitter is down more than 70 percent. Read More

02.08.16- You Are Watching It!
Bill Holter

The most common question I hear is “when”. When does the system collapse? When will we experience a reset? I think this is a very odd question. Odd because if you stand back far enough you should be able to see “you are watching it”! We are all so close and watching day by day movements, we are missing the big picture. Don’t get me wrong, many know systemically we are a bust but the daily watch for the lights out moment goes on. My point is this, the collapse is happening right before your eyes, “when” is a process and you are watching history! Read More

02.06.16- China’s $6.6 Trillion Toxic Loan Problem
MN Gordon

Rotting Vegetables

“As long as you’re green, you’re growing.  As soon as you’re ripe, you start to rot,” once remarked Ray Kroc, mastermind of the McDonald’s franchise empire.

At the moment, no truer words can be spoken for China’s ripe economy.  The Middle Kingdom’s 30-year economic boom is being overcome with the unpleasant odor that befalls rotting vegetables.  What’s more, there’s no way to reverse it.

Economic activity in China is stalling out.  All of the sudden, the mistakes that were hidden by a growing economy are surfacing en masse.  Excess capacity is turning up in all corners of the economy and no one knows what to do about it. Read More

02.05.16- The Great Crisis Has Begun (Oil is Just the Beginning)
Graham Summers

It would be a lot easier to be bullish today if the entire financial system wasn’t based on fraud and BS.

Every explanation we see regarding the bull market in stocks is really just a cover for the fact that Central Banks spent $14 trillion propping up the bond bubble.

All claims that stocks went up because of the “recovery” or because of “expansion” or whatever really translate to “stocks went up because TRILLIONS in liquidity went into the system and a lot of it ended up in stocks.”

Here’s the reality of things. Read More

02.04.16- The Great Credit Unwind!
Bill Holter

The action in nearly all markets worldwide changed on a dime since January 1st. I am not sure “what or why” the change coincided so closely with the calendar year but the rate hike by the Fed is the leading candidate. As for the real global economy, there is certainly evidence the weakness of late last year has deepened significantly. The pace of collapse has shifted gears as evidenced by trade, earnings and even central banks. Japan’s new policy of negative interest rates followed by new Fed trial balloons of same speak volumes about “stress”. Read More

02.03.16- Billionaire George Soros Thinks This Could Spark an Economic Collapse
Palwasha Saaim, B.Sc

Billionaire George Soros “broke the Bank of England” 23 years ago by shorting the pound. Now he’s betting against another country. According to media reports, the legendary investor is worried this country could spark the next economic collapse.

There’s good reason to be worried. Investor and hedge fund manager, George Soros, told Bloomberg he is going to be shorting the Chinese yuan. Because of his notorious track record, Chinese authorities are spooked. (Source: “China accuses George Soros of ‘declaring war’ on yuan,” The Guardian, January 27, 2016.) Read More

02.02.16- How To Beat The Market: One Surprisingly Simple Trade
Tyler Durden

Back in 2012 and then again in 2013, after repeatedly observing just how broken markets have become as a result of central bank intervention, a topic that back then was still taboo and is now wholeheartedly accepted even by the Davos billionaires (whose mood the WSJ summarized as "irritated, bordering on affronted, with what they say has been central-bank intervention that has gone on too long") we presented what may have been the "best alpha opportunity around" and how to outperform the "market" in a world in which not only fundamentals no longer matter, but in which hedge fund herding has led to relentless losses for the active investor community for 7 years in a row as a result of the omnipresence of central banks who have made hedging pointless: just do the opposite of what everyone is doing, and go long the most shorted stocks. Read More

02.01.16- Already Lousy Corporate Investment Comes Totally Unglued
Wolf Richter

A toxic cocktail.

American corporations borrowed more in the years following the Financial Crisis than ever before. Debt was dirt-cheap even for the riskiest borrowers, and they went out and sold bonds and borrowed from banks, and blew the proceeds on funding operating losses, buy each other out in a record-breaking wave of M&A, and buy back their own shares. And not enough went into productive investments that would help their businesses grow and thrive. Read More

01.30.16- Troubling Turnover
Ted Butler

The turnover or physical movement of metal brought into or taken out of the COMEX silver warehouses literally exploded over the last three weeks, as nearly 22 million ounces were moved and total inventories fell 4.5 million ounces, to 156.9 million ounces. I can recall only a few weeks over the past five years where more silver was physically moved. Please remember that I am speaking of physical movement and not paper work changes of metal being reclassified between the registered and eligible COMEX categories, on which so much is written. Physical turnover is just that – metal taken from warehouses and put on trucks and metal taken off trucks and put into the COMEX warehouses. Read More

01.29.16- Latest Twist In The Stock Market's Wild 2016 Ride
Dana Lyons

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just alternated 1% moves up and down for 4 days in a row – just the 17th such stretch in the last 70 years.

The stock market’s wild ride to begin the year continues, with the latest twist reminiscent of a roller coaster. Over the past 4 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has moved at least 1%, with each day alternating up and down. Since 1900, this is the 68th such streak and just the 17th in the past 70 years (actually, today narrowly missed making it 5 days in a row which would have been just the 3rd occurrence in the last 84 years). Read More

01.28.16- Is China About To Drop A Devaluation Bomb?
Raúl Ilargi Meijer

Though she had no intention of being funny, we laughed out loud, as undoubtedly many did with us, when incumbent and wannabe IMF head Christine Lagarde said last week in Davos that China has a communication issue. Of course, Lagarde knows full well that Beijing has much bigger problems than communication ‘with the market’. Or, to put it differently, if Xi and Li et al would ‘improve’ their communication by telling the truth about their economy, nobody would be talking about communication anymore. Read More

Stocks, the Economy and the Money Supply – What to Watch
Pater Tenebrarum

The Stock Market and Economic Data

In previous articles we have occasionally discussed the interaction between economic indicators and the stock market. Among the topics we have touched upon: for one thing, the capitalization-weighted indexes can hardly be called “leading indicators” of the economy anymore. In fact, if one studies specific major turning points over the past two decades or so, it is clear that the market seems to “know” very little (at least not in advance). Read More

01.26.16- The Beast System Arises: The Largest Bank In Norway Calls For The Elimination Of Cash
Michael Snyder

The biggest bank in Norway is calling for the complete and total elimination of cash. Many local bank branches in Norway already don’t deal in cash, but that is not good enough for DNB. They want a blanket ban on the use of cash, and they are selling this as a way to crack down on criminals and money launderers. But in the end, the truth is that they want to be able to force everyone in society to use the banks and it would enable them to collect fees on almost every transaction. It is an agenda that is being driven by greed, but it could also open the door for great tyranny. Unfortunately, we are not just seeing aggressive movement toward a cashless society in Norway. It is also happening in Sweden, in Denmark and in many other nations all around the globe. The Beast system is rising, and yet very few people out there even seem alarmed by this. Read More

01.25.16- One Trillion Dollars' Worth of Bonds Magically Turn into Cash
Hugo Salinas Price

Bloomberg is back and presents updated data on International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, as of Friday, January 8, 2016, after a hiatus on this information since December 11, 2015 (for reasons unexplained).

The data for Friday, January 8, 2016 are shocking, as expected: Total International Reserves held by Central Banks, excluding gold, expressed in US dollars, amount to $11.032 Trillion dollars as of that date. Read More

01.23.16- The 'Madness' of Central Bankers
The Daily Bell

BlackRock Chief: Markets Will Be 'Fine' ... The boss of the world's largest money manager said financial markets will be "fine" over the next year despite a sharp downturn early in 2016 ... BlackRock Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Laurence Fink said in an interview ... that the market is "going through a correction phase and is doing it rapidly." – Wall Street Journal

Dominant Social Theme: It's all good.

Free-Market Analysis: We can see from the above excerpt that Laurence Fink sees the current sell off as simply a cyclical event, the turning of the business cycle. The interview took place a week ago, but doubtless his sentiments remain the same Read More

01.22.16- Russian Ruble Crashes To Record Lows In "Panic": "Some Investors Are Selling At Any Price"
Tyler Durden

Late last month, we took a look at Russia’s economy and concluded that although the country has proven to be remarkably resilient in the face of collapsing crude prices, the outlook is darkening.

The ruble has fallen for three consecutive years and is now under immense pressure both from Western economic sanctions and from crude’s inexorable decline. “The wish to hedge potential risks from geopolitics and commodities may well push the ruble to 75,” Evgeny Koshelev, an analyst at Rosbank PJSC in Moscow, told Bloomberg by e-mail in December. “It will be interesting to see if there’s a reaction from the central bank, government and households to this weakening.” Read More

01.21.16- Willem Middelkoop: This Could Spark a Global Economic ‘Reset’
Robert Appel

Looming Economic ‘Reset’ Should Terrify Investors

Although treated almost as gospel in the West, Keynesian theory is a relatively new development in the long history of economics. However, its backwards ideas are pushing the world to a global economic ‘reset’. Read More

01.20.16- Walmart set to close 269 stores as economic collapse begins

Wal-Mart is doing some rare pruning.

The world’s largest retailer is closing 269 stores, including 154 in the U.S. that includes all of its locations under its smallest-format concept store called Wal-Mart Express. The other big chunk is in its challenging Brazilian market.

The stores being shuttered account for a fraction of the company’s 11,000 stores worldwide and less than 1 percent of its global revenue. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said the store closures will affect 16,000 workers, 10,000 of them in the U.S. Its global workforce is 2.2 million, 1.4 million in the U.S. alone. Read More

01.19.16- Peddling fiction...?
Bill Holter

“Peddling fiction” …this is what Mr. Obama said of anyone who believes and says the U.S. has a weak economy. How ironic he should say this when he did, the State of the Union address? I mean the timing could not have been any better! In a week where oil prices hit a 14 year low, freight rates at over 30 year lows, equity, credit and FOREX markets all over the world crashing and derivatives blowing up. How do we know derivatives are blowing up? Simply because the Dallas Fed has given their banks permission not to mark energy debt to market. In essence, the Fed has instructed their banks TO PEDDLE FICTION!

One must ask the question(s), how can the Fed really do this as accounting firms must sign off on any audits or official financial reports? Do the accounting firms also get “special waivers” to lie or as our fearless leader says “peddle fiction”? Also, how can the Fed really do this with a straight face? Did they really believe the markets would not sniff this out? Read More

01.18.16- Get Ready for the Obama Crash of 2016
Ron Holland

“With all of the quick fixes in our nation’s economy, Americans maysoon have to pay a heavy price. Holland expects that when the crash,which he refers to in his latest report as the “Greenspan Crash,”occurs, the initial market pullback for the Dow will be 25 percent. Aworst-case scenario, according to Holland, could resemble that of whathappened in Japan last year with the Dow possibly dipping as low as50-60 percent.” – Ron Holland, 1/20/1999

The last time Ron Holland a noted investment expert, writer and former president of a broker/dealer firm licensed for business in 47 states gave a major stock market crash warning was 17 years ago.  On January 20, 1999 Ron warned “Is the big crash coming” in an article on World Net Daily. Read More

01.16.16- US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away
Pater Tenebrarum

It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just never right for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot – the Fed is never at fault when the economy suffers a boom-bust cycle. That only happens because we have “too few regulations” (that’s what Mr. Bernanke said after the 2008 bust – no kidding). Read More

01.15.16- The Chart That Explains Everything
Mike Whitney

Why is the economy barely growing after seven years of zero rates and easy money? Why are wages and incomes sagging when stock and bond prices have gone through the roof? Why are stocks experiencing such extreme volatility when the Fed increased rates by a mere quarter of a percent? It’s the policy, stupid. And here’s the chart that explains exactly what the policy is.

What the chart shows is that the vast increase in the monetary base didn’t impact lending or trigger the credit expansion the Fed had predicted. In other words, the Fed’s madcap pump-priming experiment (aka– QE) failed to stimulate growth or put the economy back on the path to recovery. For all practical purposes, the policy was a flop. Read More

01.14.16- The Dow Falls Another 364 Points And We Are Now Down 2200 Points From The Peak Of The Market
Michael Snyder

It was another day of utter carnage on Wall Street.  The Dow was down another 364 points, the S&P 500 broke below 1900, and the Nasdaq had a much larger percentage loss than either of them.  The Russell 2000 has now fallen 22 percent from the peak, and it has officially entered bear market territory.  After 13 days, this remains the worst start to a year for stocks ever, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has already been wiped out globally.  Meanwhile, junk bonds continue their collapse.  JNK got hammered all the way down to 33.06 as bond investors race for the exits.  In case you were wondering, this is exactly what a financial crisis look like. Read More

01.13.16- RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries. 'This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small'

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel. Read More

01.12.16- Margin Call Gentlemen!
Bill Holter

Those who have been reading my work for any length of time know I have been adamant we would someday face a “global margin call”.  I believe this call was issued last week!  No matter how you look at the world, whether financially, geopolitically, macro, micro or whatever …what underlies everything in our world today is “credit”.  Credit is used to build, wage war, to produce and deliver, to consume or to trade, EVERYTHING runs on credit.  As a side note, in order for credit to be extended, the borrower must have some sort of “collateral”.  This collateral can be physical, financial, or simply “faith”, meaning a good credit rating or at least trust by the lender. Read More

01.11.16- CEO: “Valuations Are At Crazy Levels…
Like Nothing I’ve Seen Over My Career”

Mac Slavo

If the first week of 2016 has proven anything, it’s that the contrarian investors who have been warning of systemic breakdown in financial markets have been correct in their assessments that some of the world’s most well known brands and companies are significantly overvalued.

But the crazy valuation levels aren’t just limited to Wall Street darlings who saw prices of their stocks rise to all-time highs in recent years. Read More

01.09.16- The Systemic Failure of High Finance
Charles Hugh Smith

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the failure of high finance to fix the global economy’s systemic problems.

The operative conceit of the past 7 years has been that high finance can fix whatever’s broken in the world’s economies. According to this narrative, all the world needed to boost “growth,” employment and profits was lower interest rates, more liquidity, reverse repos and some other fancy financial footwork. Read More

01.09.16- The Systemic Failure of High Finance
Charles Hugh Smith

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the failure of high finance to fix the global economy’s systemic problems.

The operative conceit of the past 7 years has been that high finance can fix whatever’s broken in the world’s economies. According to this narrative, all the world needed to boost “growth,” employment and profits was lower interest rates, more liquidity, reverse repos and some other fancy financial footwork. Read More

01.08.16- Perfect Storm!
John Rubino

One of the (many) fascinating things about this latest global financial crisis is that there’s no single catalyst. Unlike 2008 when the carnage could be traced back to US subprime housing, or 2000 when tech stocks crashed and pulled down everything else, this time around a whole bunch of seemingly-unrelated things are unraveling all at once.

China’s malinvestment binge is crashing global commodities, an overvalued dollar is crushing emerging markets (most recently forcing China to devalue), the pan-Islamic war has suddenly gone from simmer to boil, grossly-overvalued equities pretty much everywhere are getting a long-overdue correction. Read More

01.07.16- The Most Important Stock Market Chart Today
Justin Spittler

U.S. stocks have opened the year with a flop.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%. At one point, the Dow was down 2.7%, which would have been its worst opening day since 1932.

All 10 sectors in the S&P 500 dropped yesterday. Financial and health stocks were the biggest losers, dropping more than 1.9% each. And 39 stocks hit new 52-week lows yesterday, compared to just three that hit new 52-week highs. Read More

01.06.16- Teenagers just learned what happens when you start a business in America
Simon Black

When I was a teenager, it was pretty common for young people in my lower-middle class neighborhood to find work.

I was a waiter myself… though probably one of the worst in history, as I may still hold the record at Tippin’s Restaurant and Pie Pantry for the most cups of coffee spilled on patrons.

A lot of other kids would do odd jobs like cutting the grass and whatnot. And some of them were pretty successful at it. Read More

01.05.16- This Time It Isn't Different
Jim Quinn

Last year ended with a whimper on Wall Street. The S&P 500 was down 1% for the year, down 4% from its all-time high in May, and no higher than it was 13 months ago at the end of QE3. The Wall Street shysters and their mainstream media mouthpieces declare 2016 to be a rebound year, with stocks again delivering double digit returns. When haven’t they touted great future returns. They touted them in 2000 and 2007 too. No one earning their paycheck on Wall Street or on CNBC will point out the most obvious speculative bubble in history. John Hussman has been pointing it out for the last two years as the Fed created bubble has grown ever larger. Those still embracing the bubble will sit down to a banquet of consequences in 2016. Read More

01.04.16- Dow kicks of 2016 with 400-point plunge on China fears
Anora Mahmudova

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 400 points in early trade Monday as a 7% drop in Chinese shares stoked a global selloff in stocks.

The Dow DJIA, -2.21%  plunged nearly 411 points to 17,015, led by a drop in DuPont Co. DD, -4.20%  and American Express Co. AXP, -2.90%

The S&P 500 SPX, -2.16%  fell about 45 points to 1,998, led by a decline in technology stocks, financials and industrials. Only the S&P 500’s energy sector showed a modest gain as Middle Eastern tensions helped lift crude-oil prices. Read More

01.02.16- The Herd is Heading for a Cliff
Jim Quinn

You would think investors (muppets) would be grateful for the extended topping process of the stock market, as it has given them the opportunity to exit before the inevitable crash. As CNBC and the rest of the mainstream media spin bullish stories to keep the few remaining mom and pop investors sedated and the millions of passive working Americans invested in their 401ks, the Wall Street rigging machine siphons off billions in ill-gotten gains, while absconding with fees for worthless advice. Read More

01.01.16- 2015 Was The Worst Year For The Stock Market Since 2008
Michael Snyder

It’s official – 2015 was a horrible year for stocks.  On the last day of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 178 points, and overall it was the worst year for the Dow since 2008.  But of course the Dow was far from alone.  The S&P 500, the Russell 2000 and Dow Transports also all had their worst years since 2008.  Isn’t it funny how these things seem to happen every seven years?  But compared to other investments, stocks had a relatively “good” year.  In 2015, junk bonds, oil and industrial commodities all crashed hard – just like they all did just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008.  According to CNN, almost 70 percent of all investors lost money in 2015, and things are unfolding in textbook fashion for much more financial chaos in 2016. Read More

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