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04.06.20- The JackPot Chronicles Scenario 1: Force Majeure
Mark E. Jeftovic

Force Majeure means:

a chance occurrence or superior force that renders a contract unenforceable and frees all parties from their obligations under it.

We are frequently told that there exists some manner of “Social Contract” to which we are implicitly bound by virtue of being alive. This implied Social Contract confers legitimacy upon the institutions that order our world, the national governments, the central banks, the miltary and police. And by extension certain communication outlets and media are endowed with a status of official curators over the narratives around institutional power. Read More

04.04.20- Government and Economics
Made Dead Simple

James D. Best

There are only two types of governments.  Two.  That's it.  There are those where the people control the government and those where the government controls the people.  Likewise, there are only two types of economic systems: economies where free markets control commerce and economies where bureaucrats control commerce.

It's that simple.  Really. Read More

04.03.20- What Is America Going To Look Like With Tens Of Millions Of Unemployed Workers?
Michael Snyder

In all of U.S. history, we have never seen a spike in unemployment like we are witnessing right now.  Last Thursday it was announced that more than 3.2 million Americans had filed new claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week, and many believe that the number that will be announced this Thursday will be even larger.  By the way, the previous all-time record for a single week was just 695,000.  So what is happening right now is absolutely nuts.  49 percent of U.S. companies anticipate conducting layoffs within the next 3 months, and the St. Louis Fed is projecting that the unemployment rate in this country will soon rise to 32 percent.  Before the coronavirus pandemic started shutting virtually everything down, approximately 158 million Americans were employed, and so we could soon have tens of millions of unemployed workers on our hands if the St. Louis Fed’s projection is accurate. Read More

04.02.20- Italy's Communist Recipe for Disaster
Giacomino Nicolazzo

Montecalvo, Lombardy, Italy . “As I sit here in my involuntary isolation, it was just reported that overnight 743 more people died and 5.249 new cases have been reported. This brings the total cases of infection to 69,176 and the body count to 6,820. We take relief in knowing that 8,326 people have recovered so far. (Numbers as of 3/24, 8:30pm in Italy)

Most towns here in Italy, from the upper reaches of the Alps to the ancient shores of Sicilia and Sardenia, while not deserted, are closer to being ghost towns than the bustling centers of tourism, business and daily life they were just a few weeks ago. Read More

04.01.20- Is the U.S. Able to Handle COVID-19? – Global Prospects Hang on This Question
Alastair Crooke

Eventually, the coronavirus will subside; but what will America look like when it does?

As the lockdowns across Europe began to bite, the U.S. Establishment began its ‘wobble’. The more elegant amongst élite circles pointed to a dangerous mis-match in timelines: The medical advice has been: ‘lockdown until the virus begins to subside’, but that advice encompassed too, the possibility of Covid-19 returning later in the year in a Phase Two, thus requiring further personal distancing. Hands shot high in absolute horror amongst some business and Wall Street leaders: Could the U.S. economy sustain such a prospect? Might not a long shutdown inflict permanent damage? Would there even be an economy left – to resurrect – in the wake of ‘peak Coronavirus’? Read More

03.31.20- The Economic Depression Of 2020: Many Of The Restaurants, Bars And Retailers That Have Closed Will Never Open Again
Michael Snyder

It appears that we are heading into the worst economic downturn of the post-World War II era, and that is going to be true no matter how this coronavirus pandemic ultimately plays out.  There are some that believe that this virus will only kill thousands, and there are others that are warning that it could kill millions, but everyone can agree that this outbreak is causing an unprecedented amount of fear.  And even once this pandemic starts to fade, a certain percentage of the population will continue to be afraid to go to restaurants, bars and other small businesses that are open to the public. Read More

03.30.20- Forced Liquidation
James Howard Kunstler

Historians of the future, pan-roasting fresh-caught June bugs over their campfires, may wonder when, exactly, was the moment when the financial world broke with reality. Was it when Nixon slammed the “gold window” shut? When “maestro” Alan Greenspan first bamboozled a Senate finance committee? When Pets.com face-planted 268 days after its IPO? When Ben Bernanke declared the housing bubble “contained?”Read More

03.28.20- No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up
Bob Moriarty

Those who never predicted a financial collapse in the first place are now edging closer to the swamp to dip their toes into the water. Now they are suggesting, perhaps we could have a recession."

Forget that. You cannot have every supply chain in the world chopped in two and have a recession. A depression was baked into the cake before the Corona popped out of the six-pack. The US government dumping a $6 trillion dollar bailout for their buddies that has more pork in it than the butt of a two-ton pig is the proverbial pissing up a rope. We are in a depression. The entire financial system, education system, medical system, political system, hell, the entire artifice needs a total reset. Read More

03.27.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Can This Pandemic Usher in
a New Era?

Patrick J. Buchanan

To fight the coronavirus at home, France is removing all military forces from Iraq.

When NATO scaled back its war games in Europe because of the pandemic, Russia reciprocated. Moscow announced it would cancel its war games along NATO’s border.

Nations seem to be recognizing and responding to the grim new geostrategic reality of March 2020: The pandemic is the real enemy of us all, and while we fight it, each in his own national corner, we are in this together. Read More

03.26.20- Professor Malinen: The Euro Won’t Survive This Crisis
Jan Nieuwenhuijs

To better understand the economic consequences of the Corona pandemic, I wanted to interview an expert on economic crises. Namely, Tuomas Malinen.Malinen is the CEO and Chief Economist of GnS Economics, a macroeconomic consultancy. He’s also an Adjunct Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki. He has studied economics at the University of Helsinki and New York University. His focus is on economic growth, economic crises, central banks, and the business cycle. Read More

COVID-19: Market panic and how to navigate through it

I haven't written any market updates in some time, and was quite surprised to be receiving requests for one.  I am going to attempt to go over as much as possible without devolving into a rant.  There is so much happening to analyze and consider, everything from the markets, to politics and of course the corona virus pandemic, and every bit of it is interconnected and affecting the outcomes of everything else.  I am going to break this into individual sections analyzing the important issues, markets, and ending with a feasible investment and savings plan for people to follow as we navigate through some of the most volatile markets in this country's (and the world's) history. Read More

03.24.20- COVID-19 Data Study: Ammunition Sales Continue to Soar in Response to
Coronavirus Panic

Molly Carter

Updated March 22, 2020: As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread across the United States, its impact can be seen in every community. Businesses and schools are closed, the stock market is exceptionally volatile, and store shelves are empty as the American public has scrambled to prepare for the worldwide pandemic and social distancing prescribed by the WHO and CDC. Read More

03.23.20- This Is Not a Recession
Hunter Hastings

Economists and Wall Street analysts are using the word recession to describe the looming plunge in output in the US economy. We’ll just make the point early that economists, exhibiting the typical emptiness of their failed science, can’t even agree on the definition of recession.

Undeterred by lacking a definition, the geniuses at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere on Wall Street are unrestrained in predicting the imminent arrival of the condition they can’t describe. Read More

03.21.20- The Crash of the “Everything Bubble” Is Here – And It’s Not Going Away Anytime Soon
Brandon Smith

Last November, in an article titled ‘The Economic Crash So Far: A Look At The Real Numbers’, I outlined the reality of statistical fraud by governments and central banks to hide the ongoing economic downturn. The Everything Bubble, perhaps the biggest debt fueled bubble in history, has been propping up the global economy for several years, but began to waver dramatically at the end of 2018, as the Federal Reserve tightened liquidity conditions into economic weakness (just as they did in 1929 and in the early 1930’s as the Great Depression took hold).

In that article, I warned: Read More

03.20.20- Banks are going to drown in an ocean of defaults
Simon Black

On November 6, 2000, then US presidential candidate George W. Bush told a crowd of cheering supporters, “they misunderestimated me.”

Now, if English is not your native language, allow me to clear the air: ‘misunderestimate’ is not a word. But then again, George W. Bush was legendary for hilarious slip-ups like this.

There are entire books dedicated to his ‘Bushisms,’ the ridiculous made-up words and incomprehensible sayings that became routine for the 43rd US President. Read More

03.19.20- Quantum Computing. Honeywell
and JP Morgan Chase

Joseph P. Farrell

This is a really important story that was shared by K.J. (to whom a big thank you!). Honeywell, it seems, has created the world’s most powerful quantum computer, replacing Google’s claim. Or at least, that’s the story. And we’ve all been seeing these stories for some time now, about how quantum computers are the next leap forward, able to handle orders of magnitude more calculations than ordinary Tray super-computers, and do so much faster.

So what’s the big deal here? Why another story about quantum computing and “the latest breakthrough”? Read More

03.18.20- S&P 500 Plunged Most Since 1987, Gave Up in 18 Days the 42% Gains of Past 3 Years. Boeing Shares Collapsed
Wolf Richter

It started out ugly Sunday night and ended uglier today. Sunday evening, stock futures plunged 5%, hit limit down, and trading was halted. Futures remained pinned at limit down without further trading. When stocks started trading in the morning during regular hours, the S&P 500 Index opened at 2,490, down -8.1%. This was below the limit down rule during regular hours where trading should stop for 15 minutes if the index drops 7%. But it had blown through this limit-down from the first moment. Read More

03.17.20- "What The F**k Are These Guys Smoking...?"
Bill Blain

“Well, it has to happen. Because if it doesn’t happen, we hit the wall next week. We’re already in breach.”

Happy St Patricks day.

Meanwhile… back in Today

Yesterday was another nasty day – uncertainty, panic and fear fuelling the worst fears for the market. The scale of capitulation was massive – Treasuries heading for zero percent, stocks biggest down day for 33 years, and gold sliding because investors literally have nothing else to sell to meet margin calls. If you aren’t out yet, you are stuck. Forget liquidity – it’s impossible to exit even liquid index ETFs. Read More

03.16.20- When the Coronavirus Scare Is Over, Economic Armageddon Will Remain!
Gary D. Barnett

“Only a psychopath would ever think of doing these things, only a psychopath would dream of abusing other people in such a way, only a psychopath would treat people as less than human just for money. The shocking truth is, even though they now have most if not all of the money, they want still more, they want all of the money that you have left in your pockets, they want it all because they have no empathy with other people, with other creatures, they have no feeling for the world which they exploit, they have no love or sense of being or belonging for their souls are dead, dead to all things but greed and a desire to rule over others.” ~ Arun D. Ellis, Corpalism Read More

03.14.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: WOW! Watch Term Limits Advocate SHRED Congress!
Nick Tomboulides

View Video

03.13.20- Predictions are hard. But here goes…
Simon Black

We certainly live in extraordinary times.

Even people who have been irrationally dismissive of the Corona pandemic up until this point finally had to wake up and smell reality yesterday. The NBA. Tom Hanks. European travel ban.

Our human brains, while magnificent and inspiring, are also wired in bizarre ways. We’re filled with countless ‘cognitive biases’ which affect our judgment, usually for the worse. Read More

03.12.20- The Butterfly Effect
Scott Minerd

The market is waking up to not just the viral contagion of coronavirus, but also to financial, economic, and geopolitical contagion.

If I had written a commentary on how 4,000 people dying from the flu would topple global financial markets, I think I would have been deemed insane. Yet today that is exactly the story. Read More

03.11.20- “The Most Critical Time Since the Financial Crisis”
Brian Maher

“We’re faced with the most critical time since the financial crisis.”

This we have on the grim authority of money man Sven Henrich.

Last evening prepared us for this morning’s hells…Read More

03.10.20- Why the Fed Won’t Save the Market

We haven’t seen anything like this since the last financial crisis erupted in 2008.  Wall Street has been gripped by a tremendous amount of fear, and the volatility that we are witnessing would have been unimaginable just a couple of months ago.  On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,013 points.  To put that in perspective, the largest single day decline that we witnessed in 2008 was just 777 points.  A disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia about oil prices coupled with increasing concern about the coronavirus pushed many traders into panic mode, and the result was absolutely stunning.  Hopefully stock prices will bounce back throughout the rest of this week, but many experts are warning that this is just the beginning of the carnage.  The stock market crash of 2020 is here, and the losses are already staggering.  Just consider these facts… Read More

03.09.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Virus is a Time Machine
Raúl Ilargi Meijer

Around mid-January I started including coronavirus news in the daily Automatic Earth “Debt Rattle” news aggregators, and wrote the first essay on the topic on January 29. Tons of people since have asked why, but I thought the virus had “potential”. Though not everybody would agree, I still think that. So the Debt Rattles are full of coronavirus these days.

For a proper understanding, we must remember that China was 4-5 weeks too late in reporting the disease, and after that the west was 4-5 weeks late in acting on the news. This happens simply because a politician who cries wolf will have a short career, and reporters, certainly today, follow that same model. Read More

03.07.20- What Your Financial Advisor Isn’t Telling You About Bitcoin
Teeka Tiwari

If you have a financial advisor, you’ll probably want to fire them after you read this.

You see, many Wall Street firms won’t tell you the truth about bitcoin – at least, not yet.

Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan ban their financial advisors from talking about bitcoin. Wells Fargo advisors can only hand out research “primers” on bitcoin – if their clients ask about it. Read More

03.06.20- Will This Coronavirus Outbreak Cause A New Financial Crisis And
A Horrifying Economic Collapse?

Michael Snyder

The term “black swan event” is increasingly being used to describe this coronavirus outbreak, and many are concerned that what we are headed for will be much worse than what we experienced in 2008 and 2009.  Already, we have witnessed a staggering drop in global demand, Wall Street has had to deal with the wildest week in eight years, and people all over the globe are hoarding toilet paper, face masks and hand sanitizer.  That may sound like a plot from one of my books, but it is not.  This is actually happening, and it appears that we are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis. Read More

03.05.20- Stock Market Overmedicated on FedMed, Patient Goes into Cardiac Arrest
David Haggith

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday gave the market a double-dose of exactly what it thought the market needed, and the market just about died! On the theory that, if a little is good, more is better, the Fed gave a double cut of interest. It did not go as planned.

At first, the medicine hit like nitroglycerin tablets, and the patient’s heart leaped. You can see how instantly the patient bolted up on the operating table in the graph, but the double dose the Fed administered was too much, and by the end of the day the patient’s vital signs were down 785 points. Read More

03.04.20- Peniaphobia Prevails
Michael Ballanger

Sector expert Michael Ballanger charts tumbling markets amid the scare of a coronavirus pandemic.

(Peniaphobia: fear of poverty)

This weekend, newsletter writers the world over are scrambling to explain to their paid subscribers why they are now showing losses in portfolios that were supposed to be showing gains, and especially because it was only two weeks ago that the S&P 500 hit all-time highs at 3,393.52. Without going into a long diatribe over the multiple warnings I issued in January, Mother Nature (or a bioweapons lab) has provided the pinprick that has now popped the global equities bubble, triggering a gargantuan rush to the exits and liquidity. Read More

03.03.20- Why The Coming Economic Collapse Will Not Be Caused By Covid-19
Matthew Ehret

With last week's collapse in the stock market, the internet has been set ablaze with discussion of a new crash looming on the horizon (even with today's record-breaking point-gain in the Dow). The fact that such a chain reaction collapse was only kept at bay due to massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve’s overnight repo loans should not be ignored. Read More

03.02.20- Globalization and Our Precarious Medical Supply Chains
F. William Engdahl

The grave risks and dangers in the process of worldwide out-sourcing and so-called globalization of the past 30 years or so are becoming starkly clear as the ongoing health emergency across China threatens vital world supply chains from China to the rest of the world. While much attention is focused on the risks to smartphone components or auto manufacture via supplies of key parts from China or to the breakdown of oil deliveries in the last weeks, there is a danger that will soon become alarmingly clear in terms of global health care system. Read More

02.29.20- Market Meltdown Update
Adam Taggart

Sentiment has snapped. Did the 10-year bull market just end?

We’ve been covering the spread of the coronavirus so intently over the past 30 days that we’d understand if you might have forgotten that, actually, we usually focus on many other topics on this website than global pandemics. Read More

02.28.20- The Great Melt-up Melt Down
David Haggith

That didn’t take long. Just a month ago, I wrote, “Stock Market More Overpriced and Perilous Than Anytime in History,” stating that the market was poised for a big fall because “some of the market’s most fundamental valuation metrics are now printing at levels never seen before…. This market is tripping on some pricy hallucinogens.”

And here we are! A single black swan has knocked the legs out from under the bull. It’s not a full-blown correction yet (requiring indices fall by, at least, 10%) or a crash (20% or more), though it looks like it could hit that mark by the end of today. That would be a full correction in just four days. Read More

02.27.20- The Greatest Depression Just Began. This is no Drill
Bob Moriarty

Exactly a month ago I warned that the Corona Virus outbreak was going to pop the “Everything Bubble.” I did something fairly subtle. I buried my main message under a whole heap of cow manure. It doesn’t make a rat’s ass if I was right or wrong about calling for a market crash in October or the Fed dumping piles of new crisp $100 bills onto a bonfire in September. Read More

02.26.20- “1984” Has Come to China
James Rickards

You’re probably familiar with George Orwell’s classic dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four; (it’s often published as 1984). It was written in 1948; the title comes from reversing the last two digits in 1948.

The novel describes a world of three global empires, Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, in a constant state of war.

Orwell created an original vocabulary for his book, much of which is in common, if sardonic, usage today. Terms such as Thought Police, Big Brother, doublethink, Newspeak and memory hole all come from Nineteen Eight-Four. Read More

02.25.20- When the world became unrecognizable in less than a decade
Simon Black

In the year 1520, exactly 500 years ago, a German scholar named Johan Schoner completed a map of the world that was widely considered to be humanity’s most advanced understanding of geography at that time.

To us, Schoner’s map is pretty amusing.

There’s scarcely any American continent. Instead he drew some amorphous blobs to mark Brazil and the ‘West Indies’. And there’s a very narrow body of water where the Pacific Ocean is supposed to be, separating Brazil and India.  Read More

02.24.20- Coronavirus Slams Chinese Economy
Jim Rickards

How bad is the coronavirus pandemic in China? It’s worse than the Chinese government knows and worse than the world believes.

Here are the official statistics on the coronavirus (technically COVID-19) as of today: There are 75,685 confirmed infections worldwide, with 98% of that total in China alone. Of those cases, 82.5% are in the single province of Hubei, mostly centered in the city of Wuhan, with 11 million residents.

Of the over 75,000 worldwide cases, there have been 2,236 deaths; that’s a mortality rate of roughly 2.5%. If a 2.5% mortality rate sounds low, it’s not. That’s roughly comparable to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1919–20 that killed 50 million people by some estimates. Read More

02.22.20- The American dream of retirement isn’t going to be fulfilled, says Raoul Pal
Alessandra Malito

Are baby boomers investing too much in risk? This former hedge fund manager says so

Older Americans looking to retire may want to reassess their investment portfolio before the next market downturn. 

There are many strategies to invest for retirement, but if they include loading up on stocks in your old age, they’re dangerous, says Raoul Pal, former hedge fund manager and chief executive officer and co-founder of financial media company Real Vision. Read More

 

02.21.20- It’s Too Late to Make America Great Again
Bill Bonner

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Children shouldn’t have to learn that Santa Claus doesn’t exist. And some facts are too brutal even for adults.

That things go down as well as up… and get worse as well as better… is blindingly obvious to everyone over 55. But it will come as a rude shock to today’s investors.

So will today’s insight: that there are hard seasons in human life as well as soft ones. Read More

 

02.20.20- We’re in an Age of
Technological Stupidity

Bill Bonner

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – We’re down here on the Pacific coast. Lovers in one another’s arms. Birds in the trees. And even the old men like it.

Here’s our little cottage:>>>

But even down here in the tropics, our Dear Readers’ comments reach us. Here’s one:

“Our economy is the best it has been maybe ever. Read More

02.19.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Why the Tax Man Won’t Let
Cannabis Go Legit

Jim Hoffer

With the Democratic primaries underway, the candidates’ rhetoric has started to feel like a posturing contest. They all seem to think that voters want to back the candidate who’s most interested in raising taxes, so they try to outdo each other with talk about fantastical “wealth tax” constructs that will wipe out everyone’s debt.

As impressive as this showmanship is, a thriving economy and a balanced budget are already within our reach – no redistribution of wealth required. We just need to stop leaving money on the table. The legal and fiscal mess that currently surrounds legal marijuana proves this point. Read More

02.18.20- Q4 Earnings Shocker: Excluding The FAAMGs, Net Income Is Down 7.5%
Tyler Durden

Yesterday we showed readers a remarkable statistic from the latest Weekly Kickstart report by Goldman's David Kostin: according to the chief Goldman US equity strategist, whereas modest S&P500 earnings growth in Q4 was set to finally end a 4 quarters-streak of negative EPS growth, with S&P earnings per share set to rise by a modest 2% Y/Y, virtually all of the earnings upside came from just the top 5 biggest companies: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google (aka FAAMG), which collectively saw their EPS rise by a whopping 16% (mostly on the back of record stock buybacks which reduced the number of shares outstanding thus lowering the denominator in the EPS calculation). Read More

02.17.20- Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm
Alasdair Macleod

This article posits that the spread of the coronavirus coincides with the downturn in the global credit cycle, with potentially catastrophic results. At the time of writing, analysts are still trying to get to grips with the virus’s economic impact and they commonly express the hope that after a month or two everything will return to normal. This seems too optimistic.

The credit crisis was already likely to be severe, given the combination of the end of a prolonged expansionary phase of the credit cycle and trade protectionism. These were the conditions that led to the Wall Street crash of 1929-32. Given similar credit cycle and trade dynamics today, the question to be resolved is how an overvaluation of bonds and equities coupled with escalating monetary inflation will play out. Read More

02.15.20- Minerd: There Is a "Stunning Cognitive Dissonance" Just Like Before
the Start of World War II

Tyler Durden

Guggenheim Partners' Scott Minerd warned in a new market outlook titled "Peace for Our Time: The coronavirus is a looming economic problem" that the Covid-19 outbreak in China is the latest red flag for investors could prick the corporate debt bubble. 

Minerd says, "cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning." He compares today's uncomfortable and eerie stillness in the corporate bond market to the late 1930s, right before the Nazis started bombing Britain. Read More

02.14.20- The Coming Decade Will Be Bad For Just About Everyone, Except Goldbugs
John Rubino

The coming decade will be especially grim for the super-rich, whose wealth creation will implode. Here’s why…

Poetic Justice Coming For The 1%

To understand just how grim the coming decade is likely to be for the world’s super-rich, let’s start with three premises: Read More

02.13.20- Our "Come to Mao" Reckoning and the Next Cultural Revolution
Charles Hugh Smith

Only fools are blind to the potential for this uprising to extend to Apple and the rest of Corporate America's greedy exploiters who've been delighted to profit from the protection of the CCP.

Let's start our "Come to Mao" reckoning with the obvious:

To the U.S. stock market:
The coronavirus ravaging China doesn't matter.
China doesn't matter.
1,500 deaths don't matter, 5,000 deaths don't matter, 50,000 deaths don't matter, 500,000 deaths don't matter.
10,000 coronavirus cases don't matter, 100,000 cases don't matter,
1,000,000 cases don't matter.
Read More

02.12.20- The Forces That Degenerate an Empire
Bill Bonner

We’re doing a lot of things that are very good, including waste and fraud – tremendous waste and tremendous fraud. – Donald J. Trump

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Day by day, the empire ages… drooping unto death.

Yesterday came news that Bernie Sanders narrowly won the New Hampshire primary. Read More

02.11.20- Just 4 Companies Account For 67% Of The S&P 500’s YTD Returns
Nick Colas

In mid-December 2019 we published a list of the 11 worst performing names in the S&P 500. The purpose of that exercise was twofold. First, buying the laggards at the end of a calendar year into tax loss selling anticipating a bounce in the New Year is a common hedge fund strategy – a turbo-charged play on the January Effect. Second, any big loser that does not rally once that selling stops is in real trouble. Read More

02.10.20- The end of the global economy
Richard (Rick) Mills

The Trump administration has just granted its Commerce Department sweeping powers to slap tariffs on countries it decides are manipulating their currencies to the detriment of the United States and its exporting companies.  

For some this will come as news; at AOTH, it is confirmation that our earlier warning, reported here, has come true. Read More

02.08.20- Tesla Stock Price Volatility a Sign of 'Frothy' Market
Peter Reagan

Near the end of a bull run, it's fairly common for "frothy" conditions to develop in the financial markets. This often occurs shortly before bubbles pop.

According to Investopedia, "Froth refers to market conditions preceding an actual market bubble, where asset prices become detached from their underlying intrinsic values as demand for those assets drives their prices to unsustainable levels." Read More

02.07.20- When Trust Evaporates
Chris MacIntosh

I thought I’d compare the current Wuhan zombie apocalypse bat virus to that of SARS and see what is similar this time around…and what is not.

Now, I’m not going to get into which virus wins the “I killed more faster”, (thus far, it was SARS with a fatality rate of 9.6% vs 2.8%). Or which is more infectious (SARS again, though Coronavirus can spread while still incubating). Or join the silly debate of whether we should eat bats (they carry the disease, so ummm…NO). Rather, I’m going to focus on what’s been different in terms of the reaction globally…and why this is important. Because let’s face it, statistically, you’re still far more likely to be killed by some dolt crossing the centerline while watching his Insta feed…and nobody is running around like chickens screaming…don’t drive, don’t drive. Read More

02.06.20- How are Stocks Going Up While Earnings Go Down?
Tom McClellan

The primary driver of stock prices is supposedly earnings, right? So how is it that earnings as a percentage of GDP have been falling since a peak in late 2014, and yet the major averages like the DJIA and SP500 are up 60% since then?

This week’s chart looks at some data which is buried deep within the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ report on National Income and Product Accounts. You can find it  here, then go to table 1.10, line 15. Like I said, it is deep. Read More

02.05.20- When Pelosi Ripped Trump’s Speech In Half, Was It A Harbinger Of What Is About To Happen To America During This Election?
Michael Snyder

It is a rare thing to witness a truly iconic moment happen on live television, but that is precisely what tens of millions of Americans had the opportunity to do on Tuesday night.  At the conclusion of President Trump’s State of the Union address, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped her copy of Trump’s speech in half in front of a nationwide audience.  We have never seen anything like that before in the entire history of this country, but of course so many unprecedented things have taken place during Trump’s presidency.  Pelosi is claiming that she did not plan in advance to rip the speech in half, and at that moment she probably wasn’t doing much thinking at all, but it is a moment that will live in all of our memories for the rest of our lives. Read More

02.04.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Deplatformed... How Big Tech Companies & Corporate America Subvert the Second Amendment
 Sam Jacobs

Twitter permanently banned the libertarian financial website Zero Hedge from the platform on Friday—January 31st after it published an article questioning the involvement of a Chinese scientist in the outbreak of the deadly Coronavirus.

Anyone familiar with the Bible is familiar with the Mark of the Beast: Without this mark, no man may buy or sell. Read More

02.03.20- Coronavirus Creating Worries of an Economic “Black Swan”
Birch Gold Group

The quickly-spreading coronavirus is understandably causing worry in the markets.

Originating in Wuhan, China, the virus moved from animals to humans at a local food market. Since then, it has since spread to other parts of China and beyond.

Jim Rickards compares this virus with a potential economic “contagion” that can result as the concern over the virus turns into panic and causes distress. Read More

02.01.20- Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Cause A Massive Stock Market Crash?
Michael Snyder

Could it be possible that this coronavirus outbreak will be the trigger that finally bursts the biggest stock market bubble in U.S. history?  As I have discussed previously, stock prices in the United States were the most overvalued that they have ever been during the month of January, and our stock market has never been more perfectly primed for a huge meltdown.  But stock prices are all about what investors believe will happen in the future, and if they remain convinced that the future is bright then perhaps this stock market bubble could persist for a while longer.  Unfortunately for Wall Street, this coronavirus outbreak is starting to create a wave of fear in the financial community.  In fact, concern about the coronavirus pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 600 points on Friday, which represented the worst day for the Dow since last August... Read More

01.31.20- Estimating the shape
of the coming crisis

Alasdair Macleod

We don’t know what will trigger the crisis, but a likely candidate is foreign selling of US dollars combining with a collapse in the US government’s finances. Perhaps the coronavirus will turn out to be a black swan event, but the underlying conditions for an economic and monetary crisis already exist.

This article looks at alternative outcomes. It concludes that the current situation bears a worrying resemblance to the collapse of John Law’s Mississippi scheme exactly 300 years ago. The key to understanding why this is so is because of the link forged between asset prices and fiat currencies. One fails, and they both fail, more rapidly than the most bearish bear might expect. Read More

01.30.20- More than 250,000 Chinese people will have coronavirus by early February, warns researcher
Ethan Huff

We’re just a few days away from month two of what’s shaping up to be quite the tumultuous new year, and researchers from the United Kingdom are now warning that the number of coronavirus cases is about to turn exponential.

In a model assessing the potential fallout from this highly contagious outbreak, this team of experts is expecting that more than 250,000 Chinese people will contract coronavirus by the turn of February – a number significantly higher than the roughly 6,200 cases that are currently being reported. Read More

01.29.20- Blink and you miss it: The U.S. yield curve inverts again
Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A closely watched bond market phenomenon has again flashed yellow, but investors are loathe to give it much weight.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note briefly fell below those of the 3-month bill early Tuesday for the first time since October, on concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus. An inverted yield curve has historically been an indicator of looming recession as it tends to reflect worries over future growth among bond investors. Read More

01.28.20- The Black Swan Event Begins
Chris Vermeulen

As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread.  The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading.  Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.

If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event. Read More

01.27.20- The Federal Government Has Devalued the Dollar Since 1971
Bill Bonner

Inflation is always and everywhere a rip-off.
– Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The nice thing about inflation, at least from the feds’ point of view, is that it doesn’t leave fingerprints.

Today’s dollar, for example, is worth only three cents of the pre-1971 dollar. But who dunnit? Who stole 97 cents out of every dollar? Read More

01.25.20- Irrational fears of deflation
Alasdair Macleod

The benefits of a deflation of prices brought about by a combination of sound money and markets free from government intervention have been demonstrated to be the best economic environment, the denial of which in favour of inflationary financing has led to repeated monetary and systemic failures.

This article explains how this has come about and puts the record on deflation straight. The development of macroeconomic theory had to deny the benefits of a deflation of prices, unbelievably telling us we need higher prices to stimulate our consumption. Read More

01.24.20- Don’t Mess With the U.S. (Financially)
James Rickards

I’ve been documenting financial warfare in my articles for years, but it still doesn’t get the mainstream attention it deserves.

Because as you’ll see below, it can directly impact your wealth.

Financial warfare tools include account seizures and freezes, expulsion from global payment systems, secondary fines and penalties on banks that do business with targeted entities, embargoes, tariffs and many other impositions. Read More

01.23.20- The Corporate Debt Bubble Is A Train Wreck In Slow Motion
Brandon Smith

There are two subjects that the mainstream media seems specifically determined to avoid discussing these days when it comes to the economy - the first is the problem of falling global demand for goods and services; they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the fact that demand is going stagnant and will conjure all kinds of rationalizations to distract from the issue. The other subject is the debt bubble, the corporate debt bubble in particular. Read More

01.22.20- You’ll be surprised to see what investment has destroyed the S&P 500
Simon Black

The year was 1990, and the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse.  The Berlin Wall was still in the process of being destroyed, and East and West Germany were set to reunify later in the year.

Nelson Mandela was released from prison in February, and the South African government began talks to end Apartheid soon after.

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August. Read More

01.21.20- Swift Impeachment Trial and Acquittal Coming Up
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

The Trump impeachment trial starts Tuesday. It rates to be a swift one. 

The Hill reports McConnell Proposes Compressed Schedule for Impeachment Trial.

House impeachment managers will have 24 hours over two days to make their opening arguments when they begin to present their case against President Trump to the Senate Wednesday, according to a resolution circulated by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Read More

01.20.20- Tech Expert Shares Five Predictions
for 2020

Jeff Brown

2019 was an incredible year for technology…

5G wireless networks went live in cities around the world on a weekly, sometimes daily, basis. Artificial intelligence accelerated faster than anybody predicted. And precision medicine technology is on the cusp of rewriting health care as we know it today.

This is such an exciting time to be a technology investor. And we have a lot to look forward to in 2020. Read More

01.18.20- Got Gold? - David Rosenberg Warns "We're Going To Have Helicopter Money"
Christoph Gisiger

David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research, doesn’t believe in the sustainability of the stock market rally, and warns that investors may be disappointed at the end of the year. He is bullish on energy stocks - and predicts that the gold price will surge to $3000.

Mr. Rosenberg is also the author of Breakfast with Dave, a daily distillation of his economic and financial market insights. Read More

01.17.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Northam Declares State of Emergency in Virginia Because “armed militia groups plan to storm the Capitol”
Daisy Luther

The drama in Virginia has escalated again as Governor Ralph Northam declares an official State of Emergency before January 20th’s “Lobby Day” protests.

Citing violence that erupted in Charlottesville during a Unite the Right rally in 2017, Northam said that there are credible threats that “armed militia groups plan to storm the Capitol” during Monday’s rally. In an executive order,  he announced he is banning all weapons from Capitol Square for the day. Read More

01.16.20- Instability Rising: Why 2020 Will Be Different
Charles Hugh Smith

In 2020, increasing monetary and fiscal stimulus will be the equivalent of spraying gasoline on a fire to extinguish it.

Economically, the 11 years since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 have been one relatively coherent era of modest growth, rising wealth/income inequality and coordinated central bank stimulus every time a crisis threatened to disrupt the domestic or global economy.

This era will draw to a close in 2020 and a new era of destabilization and uncertainty begins. Read More

01.15.20- 2020 - Year of Living Dangerously (Pt 2)
Jim Quinn

In Part One of this article I detailed my inability to predict the timing of events during this Fourth Turning, while maintaining the catalysts of debt, civic decay, and global disorder continue to drive the world towards a cliff.

“Every schoolchild will know what happened next, from the Oh-Ohs to the 2020s, as the Fourth Turning unfolded—but academics will surely debate how and why it came to pass. In his history, this great-great-grandson of today’s baby girl will reflect on what the Fourth Turning came to mean for his own time and generation. His history is not yet written. What will it be?” – Strauss & Howe Read More

01.14.20- 2020 - Year of Living Dangerously
Jim Quinn

“A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all.”  - Tacitus, Publius Cornelius

The shocking crime being committed during this century under the unscrupulous initiative of a few evil men is ongoing and no longer hidden from those willing to open their eyes and see the truth. As conspiracy theorists have proven to be right through the sacrifice of Snowden, Assange, and other patriots for truth, the Deep State psychopaths have double downed and are blatantly flaunting their power and control over the levers of government, finance and media. Read More

01.13.20- Surf’s Up!
Chris Martenson

The wave of change is finally here. Are you prepared to ride it?

Nothing seems right anymore.

In whichever direction we choose to look, things are unraveling at a quickening pace.

Welcome to the Fourth Turning; and with it, a profound loss of trust in institutions and government.

Such lack of social cohesion is a hallmark of a Fourth Turning. Sadly, it’s happening at a time when society desperately needs to pull together, set aside our differences, and make some really big decisions. Read More

01.11.20- Predictions for the 2020s
Dimitri Orlov

While many commentators see it fit to publish their predictions for the year ahead, I find a single year to be too fine-grained for any meaningful forecast. For me, plus or minus five years is about the right size of the error bars to place on any prediction with regard to timing, making it possible to time any major change to within a couple of decades. And it just so happens that another decade has gone by since I published my last set of predictions for the United States in the 2010s and it is therefore time to come up with a new set, for the 2020s. Read More

01.10.20- Sex, Drugs & Reality Distortion
Jamie Keech

It’s 1972, the US is withdrawing from Vietnam and the Godfather has just been released.

A Reed College dropout is on his way to meet a new student at his dorm-room to sell him a typewriter.

After knocking on the buyer’s door, eager to get the deal done, he tries the handle and steps inside only to find his would be buyer enthusiastically mid-coitus. Read More

01.09.20- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Bolsheviks want to shut down Puerto Rico’s tax incentives
Joe Jarvis

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Sovereign Man team member Joe Jarvis, who recently moved to Puerto Rico.] 

Local Puerto Ricans invariably tell me I’m overpaying on rent, and that I could have found a cheaper place to live.

I’m sure that’s true. But somehow I’m not upset about my gorgeous view over the ocean and private roof deck.

Beautiful beaches are right in front of me, along with three pools, a gym, and tennis courts. Read More

01.08.20- A New Gold Standard:
Orderly or Chaotic?

James Rickards

Over the past century, monetary systems change about every 30 to 40 years on average. Before 1914, the global monetary system was based on the classical gold standard.

Then in 1945, a new monetary system emerged at Bretton Woods. I was at Bretton Woods this past summer to commemorate its 75th anniversary.

Under that system, the dollar became the global reserve currency, linked to gold at $35 per ounce. In 1971 Nixon ended the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. For the first time, the monetary system had no gold backing. Read More

01.07.20- How Money Printing Contributes to America’s Downward Spiral
Bill Bonner

One does not see malinvestment at the time of money printing. Price increases are delayed and uneven, due to the Cantillon Effect whereby the early receivers of new money are able to purchase goods and services at existing prices. Later receivers or those who do not receive the new money at all suffer higher prices and a reduction in their standards of living. Even then most people do not link higher retail prices with a previous expansion of the money supply.

It would be hard to invent a more effective method for the destruction of modern society.

– “The Hidden Link Between Fiat Money and the Increasing Appeal of Socialism” by Patrick Barron Read More

01.06.20- "World War 3? The US Has Crossed A Red Line... But It’s Not The One They Think"
Michael Every

“World War Three!” is trending on social media the day I return to work after two weeks off deliberately not reading any news for once: ironic given my reputation for being bearish about geopolitics. Markets, of course, have failed to react much: Middle-East bourses closed down 2-4% on Sunday, which is not exactly end of the world stuff; WTI futures are up around 3%, again not a real panic; while US 10-year yields were down from 1.94% intraday Thursday to 1.79% as of the Friday close - but the weak US ISM survey (47.2 headline; 46.8 new orders; 45.1 employment) could be to blame for that alone. Read More

01.04.20- How Trump Could Really Make US Industry Competitive Again
David Stockman

International Man: Trump’s America First economic policy seemed to help him win the 2016 election. He promised to renegotiate America’s trade deals and bring jobs back to the United States.

As president, Trump has used tariffs and other protectionist measures to try to reduce the trade deficit.

What do you think of Trump’s trade policies and tariffs? Read More

01.03.20- New Rules for the New Decade
Bill Bonner

My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, situation excellent, I am attacking. – Marshal Ferdinand Jean Marie Foch

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – A new year! A new decade! And it’s going to be great.

Back in the 18th century, people went to insane asylums to laugh at the crazy people. Today, we only have to turn on the TV or read the news.

That’s progress! And it just gets better and better.

But we need to put it in perspective… Read More

01.02.20- The Cold, Hard Facts Which Prove That The Past Decade Was Actually Quite Awful For The U.S. Economy
Michael Snyder

If this is what “the good times” look like, how nightmarish are “the bad times” going to be?  In America today, more than 500,000 of us are homeless, about 40 million of us are living in poverty, 50 percent of all workers make less than $33,000 a year, and 70 percent of us have cried about money.  But at least the economy has been “growing”, right?  Well, in this article I would like to address that.  Even if you believe that the highly manipulated economic growth numbers that the government puts out are legitimate, they still show that we are in one of the worst economic stretches in all of U.S. history. Read More

01.01.20- Global Financial System Is A Big Rube Goldberg Machine
Bruce Wilds

While pondering the current economy that is becoming more of a conundrum every day, I stumbled upon an analogy I would like to share. The global economy is like a giant "Rube Goldberg" machine.It is a ridiculously complicated contraption built to perform what should normally be a simple task. Rube Goldberg machines often mimic the real world in that they are goal-oriented with many parts comingtogether to complete a task. Read More

12.31.19- Good Riddance To The ‘Twenty-Teens’
Chris Martenson

A decade best shunned & forgotten

This is my last report from the good old “twenty-teens”.

In some respects, they didn’t turn out at all like I thought they would. But in many others, exactly as predicted.

I badly underestimated the system’s ability to perpetuate obvious frauds and swindles without causing a social rebellion. And worse, to watch so many otherwise intelligent people participate with glee. Read More

12.30.19- One Tier and Rubble Down Below
Dimitri Speck

The Nifty Fifty appeared to rise up from the ocean; it was as though all of the U.S. but Nebraska had sunk into the sea. The two-tier market really consisted of one tier and a lot of rubble down below. What held the Nifty Fifty up? The same thing that held up tulip-bulb prices long ago in Holland – popular delusions and the madness of crowds. The delusion was that these companies were so good that it didn’t matter what you paid for them; their inexorable growth would bail you out.

– Forbes Magazine, 1977, The Nifty Fifty Revisited Read More

12.28.19- China Makes a Bet Against the US Dollar as World Reserve Currency
Dimitri Speck

YUAN: CHINA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO REPLACE THE US DOLLAR

  • US Dollar hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. China has been working to make the Yuan a more central part of the global economy.
  • By issuing debt denominated in USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall.
  • Issuing debt in a foreign currency isn’t uncommon; traders may recall that some famous investors rolled over their USD-denominated debt into JPY-denominated debt ahead of Abenomics and the long decline in the value of the Japanese Yen. Read More

12.27.19- Healthcare and "Market Failure"
Marc Fouradoulas

In the face of illness and suffering, private markets for healthcare services allegedly fail. Since the 1960s, neoclassical economists have legitimized the regulation and collectivization of this sector under the term "market failure." This assumption forms the foundation of the discipline of health economics and its attempt to replace the failed market using econometrics. In addition to widespread ethical principles such as equality of access and solidarity, health economics legitimizes collectivist state intervention for the development, maintenance, and regulation of national healthcare systems. Read More

12.25.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Santa Claus Accused Of Quid Pro Quo For Giving Children Gifts In Exchange For Good Behavior
Payton McNabb

Legislators have begun to hold hearings on impeaching Santa Claus after an overheard conversation seemed to imply he was offering a quid pro quo: gifts in exchange for good behavior.

FBI agents spied on Claus at various malls as he repeatedly said things like, "Sure, I'll get you a pony. But first, I need you to do something for me... be a good little boy!" The FBI was able to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Claus, because it's easier to get a FISA warrant than to get a Costco membership. Read More

12.24.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The answer to tyranny is suddenly obvious... 2A sanctuaries and armed militias in every county, every state across America
Mike Adams

Nothing scares authoritarian-minded Leftists more than the word “militia.” It brings to their twisted minds images of banjos and chew spit drool, long beards and camo-printed underwear, smoking hot AR-15s and rustic American flags. The delusional, lawless Left is absolutely convinced that militias are somehow illegal, even when they are specifically named in the Second Amendment, and Leftists apparently have no clue that militias largely consist of present or former members of law enforcement or the U.S. military, along with a wide array of law-abiding citizens who share a common desire to defend the republic and preserve the rule of law. Read More

12.23.19- President Trump Was Right About the Fed Killing Growth... and About the Coming Economic Boom
Graham Summers

President Trump was right about the Federal Reserve being too hawkish with monetary policy in 2018. And he’s correct now to suggest the Fed should be easing more aggressively.

To be clear, the Fed was correct to raise rates and attempt a balance sheet normalization, the pace of both operations was far too aggressive. As early as mid-2018 it was clear to me that the markets were signaling that Fed policies were killing growth. Read More

12.21.19- Class 8 Market Continues Collapse As Navistar Cuts 1,300 More Jobs
Tyler Durden

Job cuts and bankruptcies in the world of heavy duty trucking have been a way of life over the last 18 months, as we have documented, with the industry steeped in recession as it reflects a larger, global slowdown in manufacturing. 

That trend looks to be well in tact, with major transportation company Navistar reportingthis week that it was going to be eliminating more than 1,300 jobs in North American production.  Read More

12.20.19- The Worst Global Depression is Nigh
Egon Von Greyerz

Since the Great Financial Crisis started in 2006,  global debt has more than doubled from $125 trillion to $260 trillion. The more money that has been printed, the lower interest rates have gone. In 2006 US short term rates were 5% and between 2008 and 2015 they were ZERO. Today they are at 1.5%. But at the same time almost $13 trillion global debt stands at negative rates.

So the world has manufactured $135 trillion debt with the push of a few buttons and at ZERO cost since 2006. This means that more than 2x annual global GDP has been created at no cost and with no service or goods produced. Instead fake money has been printed which corresponds to TWO YEARS’ global production but no one has done a day’s work or manufactured a single product, so this money has been created out of thin air. Read More

12.19.19- System Failure
Sven Henrich

Rarely has failure been celebrated so much. But it is of little wonder after all, as all asset classes rose in 2019 in spite of slowing growth and flat to declining earnings. In religious debates the question is often asked: Why is there something instead of nothing? In financial markets the corollary question may be easier to answer: Why are markets higher on nothing? The answer of course being primarily: Central bank liquidity.

We’ve discussed the unholy alliance and central bankers being trapped at length, but there is a much more sinister truth lurking beneath, one of system failure suggesting things are not anywhere near as rosy as they may appear. Read More

12.18.19- And Now, foe Something Entirely Different: Start Drafting
Karl Denninger

Today, December 18th, 2019, the Congress of the United States, led by one speaker Pelosi, has brought us here once again.

Let the facts be laid before a candid world -- the Democrats have never, since 2008, accepted actual elections and electoral results.  They believe they are entitled to rule -- not as representatives, but as despots.  They believed Barack Obama was entitled to the Office of President, in that they not only backed they cheered on his claims of ruling with his "pen and phone" when he could not get what he wanted.

They rammed down the throats of Americans Obamacare, protecting medical monopolists in a scheme hatched by both sides of the aisle in concert with lobbyists and other malefactors, to steal more than $3 trillion a year and bankrupt not only the people but the nation itself.  This, despite laws making such conduct illegal that have stood for more than 100 years.  The presence of such laws became mere nuisances to be ignored. Read More

12.17.19- World on Knife Edge of Debt Crisis
Jim Rickards

Herbert Stein, a prominent economist and adviser to presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, once remarked, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

The fact that his remark is obvious makes it no less profound. Simple denial or wishful thinking tends to dominate economic debate.

Stein’s remark is like a bucket of ice water in the face of those denying the reality of nonsustainability. Stein was testifying about international trade deficits when he made his statement .Read More

12.16.19- Repo-Market Turmoil: Are We Staring Into The Financial Abyss?
Tuomas Malinen

One thing has been bothering us for six years. How can so many economists and economic commentators dismiss the ever-increasing market meddling of central banks so lightly?

The first time we warned about this possible threat to financial markets was in December 2013. In the report, we wrote:

There is a serious possibility that the measures taken by the central banks have already created a situation in which their actions increase rather than decrease financial instability. This is due to the fact that if the actual price of an asset does not meet its market–based value, the true level of risk is not properly revealed. Read More

12.14.19- How the US-China Trade War Will Affect Your Holiday Shopping
Charles Hankla

The China tariffs and even 100 percent taxes on imports of French champagne and cheese are looming over holiday shoppers.

With more tariffs on Chinese imports set to take effect this month, holiday shoppers in the U.S. face a dilemma: buy the Apple iPhone 11 or Hasbro toy action figures now or risk facing higher prices later. Read More

12.13.19- Statistical misdirection
Alasdair Macleod

Economists who understand credit cycles expect the current cycle to enter its crisis stage at any moment. Furthermore, it combines with increasing trade tariffs between the two largest economies to echo the conditions that led to the 1929-32 Wall Street crash and the subsequent depression.

With the dollar tied to gold, there was no doubt about how the collapse in demand affected asset, commodity and consumer prices ninety years ago. If the turn of the current cycle leads to a similar outcome, it is unlikely to be properly reflected in official statistics for GDP. Read More

12.12.19- The “Krugman Consensus” Haunts Munk Debate About the Future of Capitalism
Peter Diekmeyer

“Capitalism is in crisis,” say Canada’s lettuce-munching, wine-drinking elites who jammed Roy Thompson Hall last week to debate free markets.

“More and more fellow citizens have come to believe that the system no longer works,” notes Rudyard Griffiths , host and organizer of the Munk Debate series, which provides Canadians with opportunities to reflect on key issues. Read More

12.11.19- Inflation: Dead or Alive?
Gary Christenson

Breaking news:  Silver was crushed this week, down to $16.51 (another December low) as of December 6 while the DOW rose again to over 28,000.

Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, and Hyperinflation? So What?

Inflation: The banking cartel demands inflation of the currency supply. The cartel encourages massive debt and collects the interest and fees. They want inflation because it increases debt and repayment is easier. With global debt at $250 trillion, the cartel is successful. Read More

12.10.19- Another Era of Economic “Advancement”
Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Sad news this morning. America’s last honest central banker died last night. More to come…

In the meantime, U.S. markets got a jolt of joy juice on Friday. Widely reported was a “blowout jobs report” that showed the economy is “still strong.”

If that weren’t enough, the Trump administration said the trade talks were back on track. Read More

12.09.19- Get Ready For An Economic Wake-Up Call This Holiday Season
Brandon Smith

If we are to measure the concept of “economic recovery” in real terms, then we would have to look at the fundamentals (not stock markets) and whether or not they're improving. Unfortunately, not all economic data is presented to the public honestly. Very often it is mired and obscured in a fog of disinformation and false standards.

I would point out, though, that there is relatively accurate information out there in certain areas of the global economy, and it tells us our economic structure is destabilizing. Beyond that, even the rigged numbers are moving into negative territory. But what does all this mean for the holiday retail season, one of the mainstream's favorite gauges of US financial health? And, if 2019's holiday profits sink, what does this tell us is going to happen in 2020? Read More

12.07.19- Weekend Rant:
Crunchtime... When Events Outrun Plan B

Charles Hugh Smith

Not only will events outrun Plan B, they'll also outrun Plans C and D. 

We all know what Plan B is: our pre-planned response to the emergence of risk. Plan B is for risks that can be anticipated, regular but unpredictable events such tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. In the human sphere, risks that can be anticipated include temporary loss of a job, stock market down turns, recession, disruption of energy supplies, etc. Read More

12.06.19- What Went Up Came Down and Up and Will Come Down Again
David Haggith

It can’t come as any surprise that the stock market’s lofty balloon ride during the past couple of months fell because of a few words this week. It only rode up on sweet tweets by Trump about trade, which created a thermocline for it to ride. So, of course, the market plummeted this week in the unexpected downdraft of Trump’s out-of-the-blue statement that his trade deal may be a year away … even for phase one.

I don’t know if ignorant traders drive these vain accessions and declensions or just ignorant machines that have no ability to discern truth, so blindly they take presidential headlines at face value. Read More

12.05.19- Inflation Is Coming…
Harris Kupperman

Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend my time pondering what potential events the market completely ignores. Of all potential economic outcomes, the one that is least anticipated and least priced in, is an uptick in inflation. Read More

12.04.19- Global Markets Rocket Higher After Blue Horseshoe Loves China Trade Deal
Tyler Durden

The worst start to a December since 2008 for the S&P500 was apparently too much for certain people who asked Bloomberg not to be identified.

With hopes of a trade deal in shambles, optimism that a "Phase 1" getting signed in 2019 cracking after Trump said yesterday it may be better to delay the deal until after the Nov 2020 election, and China threatening retaliation after the latest House bill almost unanimously voted to sanction Chinese officials over Uighur abuse, even the Global Times' notorious twitter troll, Hu Xijing, tweeted this morning that there is "a high probability that President Trump or a senior US official will openly say in a few hours that China-US trade talks have made a big progress in order to pump up the US stock markets. They've been doing this a lot." Read More

12.03.19- The Masses Are Being Conditioned to Ignore the Economic Bubble
Brandon Smith

In the second week of October, after the “partial” U.S.-China trade deal was announced to much fanfare, I made this prediction:

US and Chinese officials rarely waste an opportunity to use trade talk headlines to head-fake markets with false hope. Rumors of a “partial” or tentative trade deal are circulating today, with MORE trade talks in a month or two. In other words, “more trade talks” means there is no deal of any substance and there’s plenty of time for the whole thing to fall apart once again. I give it less than a month. In the meantime, there will be plenty of other distractions for the general public, including the impeachment circus, tariffs against Europe, tensions in Syria, the Brexit mess, etc, etc. Read More

12.02.19- The LAST BLACK FRIDAY Before America Erupts In Political & Spiritual Chaos?
Mike Adams

One year from now the 2020 election will have already been decided. Consider that carefully.

If Trump wins re-election, the Left goes insane with a whole new round of accusations that the Russians (or the Ukranians or maybe even the lost Atlantians) stole the election. They will set their own cities on fire and march in the streets, carrying out acts of violence against all Trump supports. Read More

11.30.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Solidarity Of Democrats' Delusion Is About To Collapse
James Howard Kunstler

At Thursday's Thanksgiving table, fifteen adults present, there was not one word uttered about impeachment, Russia, Ukraine,and, most notably, a certain Golden Golem of Greatness, whose arrival at the center of American life three years ago kicked off a political hysteria not witnessed across this land since southern “fire eaters” lay siege to Fort Sumter.

I wonder if some great fatigue of the mind has set in among the class of people who follow the news and especially the tortured antics of Rep. Adam Schiff’s goat rodeo in the House intel Committee the past month. I wonder what the rest of congress is detecting among its constituents back home during this holiday hiatus. Read More

11.29.19- America’s trade policy will end up destroying the dollar
Alasdair Macleod

America’s tariffs against China are already showing signs of undermining the global economy and will create a funding crisis for the Federal Government when it leads to foreigners no longer buying US Treasury debt and selling down their existing dollar holdings. A subversive attempt by America to divert global portfolio investment from China by destabilising Hong Kong will force China into a Plan B to fund its infrastructure plans, which could involve actively selling down her dollar reserves and hastening the introduction of a new crypto-based trade settlement currency. Read More

11.28.19- There is an ugly conflict
coming soon to the US

John Mauldin

John Mauldin sees an ugly conflict coming soon to the US as their official debt levels become unsustainable and they face a "Great Reset". Will a better wealth and policy balance rise from the impending shambles? 

Nothing is forever, not even debt.

Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away.

One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt can be permanent. We don’t use that specific word, of course, but it’s what we do and is why government debt keeps rising. We borrow faster than we repay previous borrowing—and I mean governments everywhere, China as well as the US. Read More

11.27.19- CIO Of $175Bn Fund Warns "A Liquidity Crisis Is All But Inevitable"
Christoph Gisiger

Tad Rivelle, Chief Investment Officer of the Californian bond house TCW, doubts that the Central Banks can prevent the impending economic downturn. He spots increasing signs of stress in the credit sector and recommends holding safe assets to be prepared for turmoil in the financial markets.

Mr. Rivelle, who rarely gives interviews, views the prospects on the financial markets with skepticism. In his opinion, it’s clear that the business cycle is in its final stages. He warns that the power of unconventional monetary policy is largely exhausted and nervousness in the credit sector is growing. Read More

11.26.19- Dollar on 'Pins and Needles' as World Begins Turning Away
Peter Reagan

Historic changes in the world economic system don't happen overnight. In fact, they can take decades.

One of those changes has been taking place since May 2014 – namely, the weakening of the U.S. dollar's hegemony as the global reserve currency.

Agora Financial put it plainly in a recent issue of their 5-Minute Forecast, stating, "You don't have to buy into imminent 'collapse' to know the rest of the world wants to get out from under the dollar's thumb." Read More

11.25.19- The Phantom Mania
Adam Taggart

There's nothing of substance underlying the current market melt-up

Well, stocks are back at all-time highs. Ignited by the Fed’s “Not-QE” program and endless Trump administration teases of an “imminent” China deal, the S&P 500 has been propelled above its upward Bollinger band — a hyperextension only seen one other time since 2007:

Every week since Not-QE was announced has seen the S&P close green (this week finally ending the streak, barely). We’re officially in a melt-up, where both good news and bad news are accepted as valid reasons to push stocks even higher. Read More

11.23.19- Global Collapse Incoming? The Total Breakdown Of Relations With China Could Throw Our Planet Into Utter Turmoil
Michael Snyder

We just witnessed one of the most monumental events of the entire decade, and yet most Americans still don’t understand what has happened.  In recent months, the global economy and stock markets around the world have been buoyed by the hope that the U.S. and China would soon sign a new trade agreement.  Unfortunately, there is no way that is going to happen now.  On Tuesday, the Senate unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the House of Representatives passed the same bill by a 417 to 1 vote on Wednesday.  Needless to say, the Chinese are beyond angry that Congress has done this.  In part one of this article, I showed that China is warning the U.S. to “rein in the horse at the edge of the precipice” and that there will be “revenge”. Read More

11.22.19- The World's Ultra-Rich Scramble To Find Safe-Deposit Boxes Ahead Of The Next Crash
Tyler Durden

Last week we reported that according to a new analysis by UBS Wealth Management, the wealthiest investors around the world are preparing for a "significant" market crash by the end of next year.

And while that may be fine and good - after all, virtually no finance professional thinks the current, longest bull market on record, will continue beyond next year's election - one question quickly emerged: if the world's 0.001% are indeed liquidating in anticipation of a generational crash, just what are they converting their assets into? Read More

11.21.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Truth About World War II Is Beginning To Emerge 74 Years Later
Paul Craig Roberts

The Lies About World War II” is my most popular column of the year. It is a book review of David Irving’s Hitler’s War and Churchill’s War, the first volumn of Irving’s three volume biography of Winston Churchill. A person does not know anything about WW II until he has read these books. 

Historians, and even book reviewers, who tell the truth pay a high price. For reasons I provide in my review, generally it is decades after a war before truth about the war can emerge. By then the court historians have fused lies with patriotism and created a pleasing myth about the war, and when emerging truth impinges on that myth, the truth-teller is denounced for making a case for the enemy. Read More

11.20.19- U.S. Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be
The Same Again

Michael Snyder

Our relationship with China just went from bad to worse, and most Americans don’t even realize that we just witnessed one of the most critical foreign policy decisions of this century. The U.S. Senate just unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the Chinese are absolutely seething with anger.  Violent protests have been rocking Hong Kong for months, and the Chinese have repeatedly accused the United States of being behind the protests.  Whether that is true or not, the U.S. Senate has openly sided with the protesters by passing this bill, and there is no turning back now. Read More

11.19.19- Plethora of Potential Crisis Triggers
 Jim Willie CB

The US-based bond market is in tragic condition. All the bonds in US financial markets reek of rigged prices and inflated values. It is not a single bond sector, but rather all bond sectors that are in deep trouble, against a background of multi-year economic recession. The USTreasury Bonds, given the over $1.0 trillion in supply and widespread absence of buyers, deserves a 10% yield. The stolen missing $21 trillion amplifies the vacant value, from a grand crime scene. It is a wonder that investigator Professor Skidmore of Michigan State Univ has not been charged with financial terrorism. The USTBond market is teetering, kept afloat by overnight enormous slugs of fake money, which in early November was over $250 billion on a daily basis. If it was put onto the USFed balance sheet, on an increasingly frequent basis, then it is called QE. Better get real, and call it what it actually is – INFINITE Q.E. FOREVER. The Gold price is preparing the next launch platform. Read More

11.18.19- America’s Economy Pushed Beyond Reality ~ And On the Last Day…
Justin O. Smith

What fools we have running the nation. We haven’t had true capitalism in over a hundred years, and what everybody who has bought the flawed concept doesn’t understand is that the supposed “Great Economy” is a pure fabrication and manipulation that cannot and will not last, and it has been so constructed, that when it does implode upon itself, the results will be much more devastating than if the government and the Fed had kept their hands out of it.

But then again maybe I’m the fool. I do believe in a free market capitalist system 100%, and I also understand that the current over-regulated fascist system has picked winners and losers over the century and created a great deal of the current wealth inequality we now see. Read More

11.17.19- Trump vs. the ‘Policy Community’
Andrew C McCarthy

We resolve policy disputes by elections, not impeachments.

When it comes to Russia, I am with what Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman calls the American “policy community.”

Vindman, of course, is one of the House Democrats’ star impeachment witnesses. His haughtiness in proclaiming the policy community and his membership in it grates, throughout his 340-page House deposition transcript. I couldn’t agree more, though, with our experts’ apparent consensus that Moscow is bad, should be challenged on various fronts, and would best be seen as the incorrigible rival it is, not the potential strategic partner some wish it to be — the “some” here known to include the president. Ukraine, for all its deep flaws, is valuable to us as a check on Russia’s aggression, another conclusion about which the president is skeptical. Read More

11.15.19- Consumers Are Keeping The US Out Of Recession? Don't Count On It.
Lance Roberts

Just recently, Jeffry Bartash published an interesting article for MarketWatch.

“Like a stiff tent pole, consumers are keeping the U.S. economy propped up. And it looks like they’ll have to do so for at least the next year.

Strong consumer spending has given the economy a backbone to withstand spine-tingling political fights at home and abroad. Households boosted spending by 4.6% in the spring, and nearly 3% in the summer, to offset back-to-back drops in business investment and whispered talk of recession.” Read More

11.14.19- The U.S. National Debt Just Hit The 23 Trillion Dollar Mark As We Continue To Steamroll Toward Financial Oblivion
Michael Snyder

This week, the U.S. national debt reached the 23 trillion dollar mark for the first time ever.  There was no fanfare, there were no politicians giving speeches about fiscal responsibility, and there has been very little national outrage.  We have simply come to accept that it is “normal” for our national debt to grow at an exponential rate, but the truth is that we are literally committing national suicide.  Given enough time, there is no doubt that this colossal mountain of debt will kill our Republic, and yet fiscal responsibility is not even a major national issue any longer.  Everyone seems to be okay with the fact that we are stealing more than 100 million dollars every single hour of every single day from future generations of Americans and destroying the bright future that they were supposed to have. Read More

11.13.19- A Trade War Win Won’t Boost the U.S. Economy Enough
Bill Bonner

DUBLIN, IRELAND – The big news leading up to today was that the president was going to make an important announcement. 

Bloomberg reported yesterday:

There’s still plenty of time for equities to recover and gain for a sixth consecutive week, which would match their longest winning streak since they advanced for 10 consecutive weeks over the course of late 2017 and early 2018. But doing so may hinge on a critical event Tuesday. Read More

11.11.19- Fake Patriotism, Fake Economy & Fake Markets… Met With Optimism Again This Week?
Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart

SD Outlook: The show goes on in Deep State Globalist controlled America, and this week is a particularly interesting episode…

Happy Veterans Day to all the Vets out there!

Veterans Day has turned into one interesting case study into the weird inconsistency that is the United States. Read More

11.09.19- Greed Driving Broader Markets Today,
Fear To Spark Precious Metals Fireworks
In The Future

Steve St Angelo

With the Fed propping up the entire market and extreme greed driving the stock indexes to new highs, investors have lost interest in the precious metals, for the moment.  However, I am not surprised.  What is taking place in the overall markets is precisely what I forecasted back in September.

After gold and silver broke out of key resistance levels in the summer and then moved to new highs for 2019, a consolidation period would likely follow before the precious metals began the next leg up.  I mentioned this in my last Youtube precious metals update, Silver Price Update & End Of Mining Era, published on September 21st. Read More

11.08.19- The US economic collapse will look like this – are you ready for it?
Ralph Flores

The US has one of the strongest economies around the world, even as the rest of the world is showing signs of cooling and slowdown. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund said that the world’s largest economy remains a “bright spot” on the global stage.

Given America’s status of being the economic leader of the world – something it’s been holding onto since 1871 – it’s pretty farfetched to think that it’s bound for collapse. While it’s a scenario many people hope they’ll never live through, preppers should view economics as the “writings on the wall,” so they can act accordingly. Read More

11.07.19- The Economic Crash So Far: A Look At The Real Numbers
Brandon Smith

There are many problems when attempting to track a faltering economy. For one, the people in government generally do not want the public to know when the system is in decline because this looks bad for them. They prefer to rig statistical indicators as much as possible and hope that no one notices. When the crash occurs, they then claim that “no one saw it coming” and the disaster “came out of nowhere”, so how could they be to blame? Read More

11.06.19- Consistently Spending More Than a Nation Can Afford Causes Its Fall
Bill Bonner

“The means of defense against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home.”

“If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.”

– James Madison

PARIS, FRANCE – And now, we come to the end… and the beginning.

We end our series on the Persecution and (political) Assassination of Donald J. Trump, as performed by the morons, flimflammers, and bunglers of the Deep State. Read More

11.05.19- The Deutsche Bank Death Watch Has Taken A Very Interesting Turn
Michael Snyder

The biggest bank in Europe is in the process of imploding, and there are persistent rumors that the final collapse could happen sooner rather than later.  Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that this is a story that I have been following for years.  Deutsche Bank is rapidly bleeding cash, they have been laying off thousands of workers, and the vultures have been circling as company executives desperately try to implement a turnaround plan.  Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, it may already be too late.  And if Deutsche Bank goes down, it will be even more catastrophic for the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers was in 2008.  Germany is the glue that is holding the EU together, and so if the bank that is right at the heart of Germany’s financial system collapses, the dominoes will likely start falling very rapidly  Read More

11.04.19- Party On, Wall Street!
Rick Ackerman

What are we to make of Wall Street’s exuberance on Friday over news concerning a U.S. economic expansion that refuses to die? Employers are hiring, consumers are spending and business is humming despite a dramatic economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, South America and elsewhere. Perhaps America really is an economic island, one blessed with unstinting support from a central bank that has finally succeeded in taming the business cycle?  If you are too young to remember the last three or four recessions, you might believe that things are different this time.  Read More

11.02.19- The End Of Money
Chris Martenson

Prepare for the coming wealth transfer

Today we live in a bifurcated economy: it is boom times for some and bust times for others.

Your personal situation depends largely on how close you fall on the socioeconomic spectrum to the protected elite class, towards which the central banks are directing their money-printing firehoses.

Why should we care about this bifurcation? History. Read More

11.01.19- Caterpillar just flashed the latest warning sign for the global economy
 Yusuf Khan

Caterpillar just flashed the latest warning sign for the global economy. 

The construction and manufacturing equipment titan, viewed as a bellwether for global industry, revealed a 6% drop in sales and an 8% drop in profit per share in the third quarter. 

Caterpillar produces so much of the world's equipment that a decline in its business often indicates a broader slowdown in construction and factory activity. Weaker demand for its products typically means people are building and manufacturing less, which doesn't bode well for economic growth. Read More

10.31.19- What Will Stocks Do When “Consensual Hallucination” Ends?
Wolf Richter

The phenomenon works – until it doesn’t. What’s astonishing is how long it works.

This is the transcript from my podcast last SundayTHE WOLF STREET REPORT:

There is a phenomenon in stock markets, in bond markets, in housing markets, in cryptocurrency markets, and in other markets where people attempt to get rich. It’s when everyone is pulling in the same direction, energetically hyping everything, willfully swallowing any propaganda or outright falsehood, and not just nibbling on it, but swallowing it hook, line, and sinker, and strenuously avoiding exposure to any fundamental reality. For only one reason: to make more money. Read More

10.30.19- On Thin Ice: How America is going the way of the former USSR
David Brockett

The way we were

In order for a union of states (like the US) to remain viable, the cost levied in taxes by the central government must be seen as a fair price for services provided.   Restrictions imposed by the central government can’t go beyond the authority granted by the Constitution nor be so burdensome they negatively affect commerce or citizen’s rights of life liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That is the way our nation was designed—a weak central government with limited powers and strong independent states served by the central government. Read More

10.29.19- The Economic Crisis of 2008 Did Not End, It Has Been in Remission
Rob Bennett

There have been many articles appearing in recent months suggesting that the economy might go into a recession within the next year. Many have focused on whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to stop this from happening. There also has been a lot of speculation as to the effect that an economic downturn will have on the 2020 Presidential elections. I have not seen anyone talk about how today’s high stock prices will likely cause an economic collapse. Read More

10.28.19- Being a Contrarian Is the Secret to Finding the Most Profitable Trades
Jeff Clark

Most folks believe in their bones that trading is risky. And if you don’t know what you’re doing, it is.

Novice traders often don’t take the time to learn the ropes. They jump right in thinking, “I got this.”

They gamble, blow up their accounts, then walk away penniless and swearing off trading forever.

I know… because it almost happened to me.

Expensive Lesson

I was 19 when I made my first trade. Read More

10.26.19- Very Special Interview
With G. Edward Griffin!

JSMineset

View Video

10.25.19- Fund Manager: The Fuses On The Financial Bombs Have Been Lit
Dave Kranzler

“Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.” Helicopter Ben Bernanke’s address to the National Economic Club, 2002

It took the Fed more than 4 1/2 years to remove from the banking system just $750 billion of the $4.5 trillion in money it printed. The Fed stopped the removal process (“Quantitative Tightening”) at the beginning of September. But just 13 days later the Fed began adding liquidity back into the banking system via its repo operations. Read More

10.24.19- Most Americans Do Not Believe That This Chapter Of American History Is Going To End Well
Michael Snyder

This is a very difficult article for me to write.  America is more divided today than it has ever been in my entire lifetime, and the very deep divisions that now exist are getting deeper with each passing day.  In particular, the animosity between the political left and the political right has risen to an extremely frightening level.  Instead of learning to love those that we disagree with, we are constantly being trained to absolutely loathe them, and the pot is constantly being stirred by the mainstream media and many of our national leaders.  And as both sides go at it like cats and dogs, irreparable damage is being done to our political system. Read More

10.23.19- “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”
Jim Rickards

The trade war is taking a heavy toll on China. Chinese growth slowed to 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected and the slowest growth rate since 1992.

That 6% growth represents a sharp drop from the 6.8% growth China registered in the first quarter of 2018. China’s growth still exceeds developed economies by far, but it is notably weak relative to China’s past performance and relative to expectations. Read More

10.22.19- Cash-Flow Zombie Netflix Extracts Another $2 Billion from Befuddled Investors.
Here’s How it Tricks Up its Earnings

Wolf Richter

Having burned cash for 22 years and counting

“Don’t get me wrong: there is still lots of money out there chasing these companies,” I said in my podcast on Sunday, naming Netflix as one of the perennially cash-flow negative companies – the “cash-burn machines” – that have to borrow huge amounts of money every year to make ends meet, and that still find eager investors to lend them this money. I said this, not knowing what Monday would bring. And sure enough, Monday brought an announcement by Netflix that it would borrow another $2 billion via another bond sale – its second this year, after having already borrowed $2.2 billion in April. Read More

10.21.19- There Are a Couple of Things
Not Coming Together Here

Wolf Richter

I Get it: Stock-Market Shorts Sit on Sideline, Fearing Rally. Investors Deleverage, Fearing Sell-Off. VIX Falls Asleep, Fearing Nothing.

Of the total shares outstanding of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, only 2.6% were out on loan to short sellers this week, the lowest since early October 2018, and down from 7% during the summer, according to IHS Markit data cited by Bloomberg. Read More

10.19.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Now even Sex Robots have rights
Simon Black

Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our Friday roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, your finances and your prosperity.

Singapore officially bans ‘fake’ news

Singapore is great for a lot of things– banking, business, trade, etc. But it ranks rather poorly for civil liberties.

Case in point: a new law intended to stop fake news came into effect in Singapore this month; the law will force social media platforms to remove any content that’s deemed contrary to the gov’s opinion. Read More

10.18.19- The Fed Is Back to Robbing the Middle Class to Reward the Rich
Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Today, we gasp in horror. We hold our breath in disbelief. And we rub our hands in greedy expectation.

The feds are doing something so stupid, it will bash the economy… and maybe even wreck the government, too. But they are doing it with such lunatic confidence, we think we can take it to the bank.

Taking shape here is not just another gloomy view of the world ahead, but a cheerful anticipation of the money that can be made (or at least not lost) by betting against it. Read More

10.17.19- Monetary Inflation and the Next Crisis
Steven Saville

We regularly look at what’s happening with monetary inflation around the world, but today we’ll focus exclusively on the US monetary inflation rate. This is because of the recent evidence that the unusually-low level of this long-term monetary indicator is starting to have a significant short-term effect.

The following chart shows that the year-over-year rate of change in US True Money Supply (TMS), a.k.a. the US monetary inflation rate, made a new 12-year low in August-2019. Furthermore, the latest TMS growth figure for the US is very close to the 20-year low registered in September-2006. Read More

10.16.19- Stocks Bubble Up From More Money Printing
Dave Kranzler

The stock market spiked up last week as Trump started in with his trade war optimism tweets, which excited the algos and momentum chasers. As Monday rolled around, however,  it was determined that a “Phase 1” trade agreement amounted to nothing more than a commitment from China to buy some farm products. On Tuesday China made the purchases contingent on Trump removing tariffs. So there is no “Phase 1” trade deal.

But the hedge fund computers don’t care.  Now the market is bubbling higher on the reimplementation of Federal Reserve money printing. Call it whatever your want – QE, balance sheet growth, term repos, whatever. But the bottom line is that Fed is printing money and injecting it into the banking system, which thereby acts as a transmission mechanism channeling some portion of this liquidity into the stock market. Read More

10.15.19- Here Comes The Deluge Of Meaningless “Good News”
John Rubino

Today’s relief rally is brought to you by chastened US and Chinese trade negotiators who are now working on a “mini” trade deal that will apparently include a reduction in US tariffs in return for some minor Chinese concessions on things like mandatory joint venture partners for foreign companies wanting to set up shop in China. In other words, it’s a face-saving exercise. Yet stocks are soaring as investors focus on the above while ignoring the potentially much bigger deal of last night’s missile attack on an Iranian oil tanker

But wait, there’s more. The Fed just promised to start buying Treasury bills at the rate of $60 billion a month and will keep it up through mid-2020. Just don’t call it QE though in every mathematical way it is exactly QE. Read More

10.14.19- Did Everything Just Change?
Adam Taggart

How material are this week's QE & China deal announcements?It’s hard to imagine a more euphoric end to the week for bulls.

Two weeks ago I issued a report titled Realistically, What’s Left To Power Asset Prices Higher? which claimed the bulls’ only hope was for a near-term resumption of QE (quantitative easing, aka “money printing”) or a China trade deal.

Well, this week they got both. Read More

10.12.19- The Repo Market Incident May Be
The Tip Of The Iceberg

Daniel Lacalle

The Federal Reserve has injected $278 billion into the securities repurchase market for the first time. Numerous justifications have been provided to explain why this has happened and, more importantly, why it lasted for various days. The first explanation was quite simplistic: an unexpected tax payment. This made no sense. If there is ample liquidity and investors are happy to take financing positions at negative rates all over the world, the abrupt rise in repo rates would simply vanish in a few hours. Read More

10.11.19- Monetary failure is becoming inevitable
Alasdair Macleod

This article posits that there is an unpleasant conjunction of events beginning to undermine government finances in advanced nations. They combine the arrival of a long-term trend of rising welfare commitments with an increasing certainty of a global-scale credit crisis, in turn the outcome of a combination of the peak of the credit cycle and increasing trade protectionism. We see the latter already undermining the global economy, catching both governments and investors unexpectedly.  Read More

10.10.19- Geopolitical Signals Of
Global Economic Crisis Abound

Brandon Smith

As I write this, news feeds are buzzing with questions and confusion over the October US/China trade talks. In September there was a massive propaganda campaign within the mainstream media to push the notion that a deal with China was imminent, which boosted markets otherwise on the verge of a plunge due to a hailstorm of bad financial news. This media campaign also indicated to me that there would be no deal in October – best case, there will be an announcement of “progress” and a temporary pause in tariffs, which will fall apart once again in a month's time. Worst case scenario, the talks will falter before they ever really begin. Either way, the trade war will continue well into next year. Read More

10.09.19- U.S. Dollar Losing Its Grip as Global Reserve Currency
Birch Gold Group

The U.S. dollar, the longstanding global reserve currency, has been struggling to regain the dominance it once had in the 1970s. At that time, it maintained more than 80% of the reserves.

After taking a huge hit in the 1980s and bottoming out at 46% of official reserves in 1991, it slowly clawed back some dominance.

But since the Euro arrived in the early 21st century, the dollar appears to be losing its grip again. Except this time, it may not regain its lost control of the currency market. Read More

10.08.19- America’s Financial Suicide: The Budget Deficit Rises 26% In 1 Year As Federal Spending Spirals Wildly Out Of Control
Michael Snyder

We are in the process of committing national financial suicide, and most Americans don’t seem to care.  As  you will see below, the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended on September 30th was the largest in 7 years.  In fact, it was actually 26 percent larger than last year.  Federal spending is wildly out of control, and “non-discretionary spending” is projected to go through the roof in the years ahead.  Under our current system, it is literally going to be impossible to turn things around.  As the Baby Boomers continue to retire, the amount of resources demanded by Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs is going to continue to escalate dramatically.  Read More

10.07.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Bannon and the Deep State
Al Benson Jr. 

Back in 2018 the informative New American magazine did two separate issues, one in January and another in August, dealing with the Deep State and its evil machinations. If you never read these, you need to. I have a few copies of both issues on hand which I would be glad to send out to concerned people for the cost of postage– probably about $3.00. I would send them out for nothing if I could afford to do that but, with my finances, it is not possible. 

In this vein, I noted an article on the Zero Hedge web site this morning, October 6th, which quoted former Trump advisor, Steve Bannon, as saying that the concept of “Deep State is a conspiracy theory for nutcases.” Read More

10.05.19- Orders of Heavy Trucks Collapse,
Layoffs Start

Wolf Richter

“Fleets are nervous. The latest manufacturing and construction numbers are concerning. The trade issue with China looms.”

Layoff decisions by heavy-truck manufacturers are trickling out. A couple of days ago, it was Daimler-owned Freightliner, which said in a statement to WBTV that it would “adjust its production output in line with lower market demand and release approximately 450 production workers [out of 2,878 employees] at its Cleveland manufacturing plant based in Cleveland, North Carolina, and approximately 450 workers [out of 1,714 employees] in Mt. Holly, North Carolina, effective October 14, 2019.” These layoffs represent 16% and 26% of the workforce at the respective plants.Read More

10.04.19- Liquidity Crisis & the Pending
European Banking Crisis

Martin Armstrong

A lot of people have been writing in about the liquidity crisis and the banks with exposure to Deutsche Bank. This is clearly the European Banking Crisis we have been warning about. Most European (and Swiss) banks are having to overpay 30-40bps over libor. Even A+ rated banks are having to pay this premium.

Keep in mind that the Lehman and Bear crisis took place in the REPO market. This is why the crisis is appearing in a market most never hear about or see in interest rates. Those in Europe who have a position in cash, it may be better to have shares or a private sector bond or US Treasury. Given the policy in Europe of no bailouts, leaving cash sitting in your account could expose you to risk in the months ahead. Read More

10.03.19- Auto Loans Stretch To Eight Years To Accommodate Irresponsible Car Buyers
Tyler Durden

About a third of all US auto loans issued today are stretching out to seven years, according to the Wall Street Journal. By comparison, a decade ago, the seven-year loan only made up about 10% of all loans.

Why? Because that's the only type of loan increasingly more Americans can afford to amortize. Read More

10.02.19- A U.S. Economic Slowdown Has Been Confirmed, And We Are Being Warned That “More Damage” Is Ahead
Michael Snyder

We just witnessed the worst month for U.S. manufacturers in more than 10 years, and nobody seems optimistic that things are going to get much better any time soon.  In fact, one expert is warning that “more damage” is coming if the trade war is not resolved, and unfortunately it does not appear that a resolution will be possible for the foreseeable future.  As I have been detailing for months, the entire global economy has been steadily slowing down, but some shocking new numbers that we just got indicate that our economic problems are really starting to accelerate.  So hold on to your hats, because it looks like things are about to get really crazy.  According to CNBC, September was the worst month for U.S. factories in more than a decadeRead More

10.01.19- When Karma Crushes Dogma The Stock Market Crashes
Charles Hugh Smith

When dogmas lose their grip on believers, they collapse in spectacular fashion…

When dogmas lose their grip on believers, they collapse in spectacular fashion.

Karma covers a lot of ground, but it boils down to consequences: consequences not just from your actions but from your convictions, schemes, obsessions, and yes, dogmas. Read More

09.30.19- So Much For Goldilocks
John Rubino

Stock prices are high and fairly stable, while interest rates are low and fairly stable. A casual observer might infer from this that the global financial markets are experiencing one of those fabled Goldilocks moments where everything is just right.

But under the surface things are anything but just right. Among the high (or low)-lights: Read More

09.28.19- Realistically, What’s Left To Power Asset Prices Higher?
Adam Taggart

The case to short the markets continues to build

Here we are again. The markets are within a few percentage points of their all-time highs, but just can’t seem to muster the momentum to break out above them.

We saw similar conditions back in March/April and then again in July. Both times, the S&P dropped sharply after failing to stay above 3,000. Read More

09.27.19- Gold and Silver, The Anti-System Money
Tom Chatham

When the next round of money printing and interest rate reductions happen, those that are tied to the bankers economic system will begin their fall into a black hole they will never come out of. As long as you are tied to their system you are at their mercy and have no way to protect your wealth. They know this and use this power to steal your wealth from you in a variety of ways. 

The only way to fight this system is to operate outside of it and utilize your own system. When you control how you store your wealth, you deprive them of their ability to steal it. They can only take that which is under their control. Read More

09.26.19- If Donald Trump Is Impeached, You Should Expect The Mother Of All Stock Market Crashes To Happen
Michael Snyder

News that an impeachment inquiry is being initiated instantly sent stock prices tumbling on Tuesday, but that small jolt is nothing compared to what we will experience if Donald Trump is actually impeached.  Over the past couple of years we have seen a tremendous boom in stock prices, and one of the big reasons for that boom is the fact that the folks on Wall Street know that Trump is always going to be looking out for their best interests.  Trump understands that his chances of winning again in 2020 will be greatly enhanced if stock prices are rising and most Americans believe that we have a “booming economy”, and so he wants to do everything in his power to try to make those things happen. Read More

09.25.19- And Now, for Something Entirelt Different: The Odor of Desperation
James Howard Kunstler

The swamp abides. The latest news media dumpster fire over President Trump’s phone conversation with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is a three-way ruse. Ruse 1: deflect attention from the main issue, which is Joe Biden’s trolling for payoffs on his missions to foreign lands as vice-president, first Ukraine, where son Hunter was gifted a board of director’s chair and $50K-a-month salary with Ukrainian gas company Burisma, and then a $1.5 billion “private equity investment” to Hunter Biden’s wealth management fund from the state-owned Bank of China. Ruse 2: to deflect attention from the damage soon to be inflicted on the Deep State by the forthcoming DOJ Inspector General’s report on FISA court abuses. Ruse 3. To set in motion yet another obstruction of justice trap for Mr. Trump on the basis of false charges. Read More

09.24.19- CLOSE TO BREAK-DOWN: Pay Attention To The Nasdaq And The Technology Sector
Chris Vermeulen

We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes.  The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move  that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event).  The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle. Read More

09.23.19- Oh Captain, My Captain, the Warship “Boogle of Weasels” Has Hoisted the False Flag
Bob Moriarty

Since the “attack” on the Saudi oil facilities some important details have been filled in, much like a paint-by-number oil. Certainly we have sufficient information to make reasonable guesses as to what really took place just over a week ago on the 14th of September.

    1. We are told an attack by drones/cruise missiles took out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production.

    2. The fires from the attack were put out within a few hours.

    3. Not a single person died in the attack. Read More

09.21.19- Goldman Sachs Has Just Issued An Ominous Warning About Stock Market Chaos
In October

Michael Snyder

Are we about to see U.S. financial markets go crazy?  That is what Goldman Sachs seems to think, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that great financial chaos has been unleashed during the month of October.  When the stock market crashed in October 1929, it started the worst economic depression that we have ever witnessed.  In October 1987, the largest single day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history rocked the entire planet.  And the nightmarish events of October 2008 set the stage for a “Great Recession” that we still haven’t fully recovered from.  So could it be possible that something similar may happen in October 2019?  According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs is warning that the stock market could soon “go crazy again”… Read More

09.20.19- The Panic in Interest Rates
is Just Getting Started

Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; You warned that there would begin a cash shortage and real rates would rise in the private sector starting in September after Labor Day. Ok, it’s about 15 days past that marker and Repo rates have gone completely nuts hitting 10% forcing the Fed to intervene. They were calling it Armstrong’s revenge here in the dealing room. It certainly appears the Fed has lost control of short-term rates as you warned. Is this the start of the chaos you have warned about? Read More

09.19.19- A Huge Crack Just Appeared in the Financial Markets Overnight
Mac Slavo

A large crack has appeared in the financial markets overnight in a segment of the market that the public rarely, if ever, notices.  This crack, however, is crucial to the functioning of the global financial system.

Borrowing rates skyrocketed on Tuesday forcing the New York Federal Reserve to come to the rescue with a special operation aimed at easing stress in financial markets. According to CNN, this was the NY Fed’s first such rescue operation in a decade, the last occurring in late 2008. “It’s unprecedented, at least in the post-crisis era,” said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Read More

09.18.19- The most profitable business in the world
Simon Black

More than 5,000 years ago on a hilltop located in modern-day Georgia (the country, not the state), a group of people from the prehistoric Kura-Araxes civilization gathered their primitive tools and began to dig.

It took years. But they eventually burrowed 20 meters deep into the earth and constructed a network of elaborate tunnels.

Thousands of years later, archaeologists and geologists figured out why: the Kura-Araxes were digging for gold. Read More

09.17.19- Preparing for a World Run Amok
John Rubino

View Video

09.16.19- All Major Economies Are Caught in an Inflate-or-Die Trap
Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We’re exploring the old adage: What goes around comes around. And what we see coming around almost everywhere is inflation.

We make haste to explain that we’re not talking about common consumer price inflation, but about inflation of the money supply, which could show up almost anywhere.

More Fake Money

In the interest of conserving the reader’s time, here is our hypothesis: All major economies are caught in an “Inflate-or-Die” trap… and what went around Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Venezuela will be coming soon to an economy near you. Read More

09.14.19- The Coming Financial Panic
and the 2020 Election

David Stockman

Doug Casey’s Note: David Stockman is a former congressman and director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan.

Now, anyone with connections to the government should elevate your suspicion level. But as you’ll see, David is a genuine opponent of government stupidity. Although his heroic fight against the Deep State during the Reagan Administration was doomed, he remains a strong advocate for free markets and a vastly smaller government. Read More

09.13.18- The Inevitable Bursting of
Our Bubble Economy

Charles Hugh Smith

All of America’s bubbles will pop, and sooner rather than later.

Financial bubbles manifest three dynamics: the one we’re most familiar with is human greed, the desire to exploit a windfall and catch a work-free ride to riches.

The second dynamic gets much less attention: financial manias arise when there is no other more productive, profitable use for capital, and these periods occur when there is an abundance of credit available to inflate the bubbles.  Read More

09.12.19- The Bill of Rights Turns 230, and What Do We Have to Show for It? Nothing Good
John W. Whitehead

“That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn't even any rioting in the streets. People stayed home at night, watching television, looking for some direction. There wasn't even an enemy you could put your finger on.”—Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid's Tale

It’s been 230 years since James Madison drafted the Bill of Rights—the first ten amendments to the Constitution—as a means of protecting the people against government tyranny.  Read More

09.11.19- Moody's cuts Ford credit rating
to 'junk' status

Ian Thibodeau

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Ford Motor Co.'s credit rating to "junk" status Monday, a move that could make it more expensive for the automaker to borrow as it undertakes a sweeping global restructuring amid slowing global sales and a rapidly changing industry.

The ratings agency believes the automaker's years-long restructuring under CEO Jim Hackett will be too costly to generate much return for shareholders. Monday's downgrade to Ba1 — the highest non-investment grade rating — comes as Ford and Hackett have said repeatedly over the last year that 2019 would deliver the results promised, including improved profit margins around the world.  Read More

09.10.19- Why Americans should worry about the national debt
Donald Lambro

The federal government is plunging deeply into record-breaking debt, undermining the very foundations of our country and its economic health.

President Trump rarely, if ever, talks about it, and you hardly ever hear about it on the nightly news, even though economic analysts are warning that it threatens to end programs and benefits upon which millions of Americans depend.

For many decades the growth of the federal deficit was measured in tens of billions of dollars, and then hundreds of billions, as government spending and debt spun wildly out of control.  Read More

09.09.19- Fake MAGA, Fake Markets
David Stockman

We don’t put a lot of stock in the CNN/MSM running meme that the Donald is a fount of endless lies.

Most of what they call “lies” are debatable facts and factoids about propositions they don’t like – such as the truth that the Russia Collusion/Meddling story has not only been bogus from day one, but was actually an attempt by the Dems and their Deep State apparatchiks to unconstitutionally reverse the outcome of a presidential election.

But there can be no doubt that the Donald let loose a Whopper on Monday morning when he saw the futures market deep in the red, thereby continuing the 800-point carnage from his Friday exercise in Trade War lunacy. Read More

09.07.19- The Current Situation is much more dangerous than during the Dotcom Bubble
Fred Hickey

Wall Street darlings like Apple, Google and Amazon have dominated this bull market. But today, the so-called FAANG stocks have lost some of their attraction and are lagging the overall market since last year.

Without participation from the FAANGs it will be difficult for the stock market to rip to new highs», says Fred Hickey. According to the renowned contrarian investor, each of the tech behemoths is struggling with its own fundamental problems, with Apple being the weakest of the group. Read More

09.06.19- Suffering the Profanity of
Plentiful Cheap Money

MN Gordon

What if the savings in your bank account lost 55 percent of its value over the last 12 months?  Would you be somewhat peeved?  Would you transfer some of your savings to another currency?

That was the favored approach in Argentina – where the official inflation rate’s 55 percent.  But no more.  On September 2, President Mauricio Macri resorted to capital controls to preserve the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves and prop up the peso.  What gives? Read More

09.05.19- The Ugly Truth About The Trade War
Brandon Smith

This past week was an interesting exercise in false expectations and assumptions. Once again, trade war theatrics were used to stall a stock market plunge as insinuations of a possible “deal” were made by Donald Trump, followed by China's claim that maybe, just maybe, they would not immediately issue a new round of tariffs right now, but possibly tomorrow, or in a month...

Then, all hell broke loose again when only a few days later both sides jumped into a new round of tariffs leaving markets confused and algo trading computers bewildered, so much so that sometimes they even buy on bad news thinking it's good news. Read More

Hurricanes Are Coming!
Gary Christenson

Hurricane Dorian is traveling (September 1) toward the United States. The destruction could be impressive.

Hurricane Federal Reserve has devalued the dollar for over a century. The destruction has been large. A few benefited, many lost wealth, purchasing power, pensions, jobs, and homes.

Hurricane National Debt has reached Cat 5 status, over $22 trillion in unpayable debt that weakens the U.S. economy, strains the government budget with half a trillion in annual interest payments, and sucks capital away from more beneficial uses. This debt hurricane should reach Cat 6 soon. Read More

09.03.19- Yodel For Me, You Sap
Tim Knight

Let’s say you went up to a grown person and told them that, if they would try to yodel for you for 15 seconds, you would give them twenty dollars. They might hesitate at first, but most people would, within a pretty short amount of time, figure that was a fair trade and try to warble out a few yodel-a-ee-hoos for you.

You say “thanks” and walk away without paying them. They would probably leer at you and mutter an obscenity under their breath. Read More

09.02.19- Labor in America Does Not Pay
Sartre

Working used to be a proud expression of manhood. Since the days of “Rosie the Riveter”, mothers and daughters joined the work force in mass. Building infrastructure, developing commercial enterprises and producing an endless assembly line of goods led to the greatest expansion of the middle class in American history. In a mere fifty years of planned and coordinated downsizing and out sourcing, the only outcome from honest work is the sweat from your brow. Folks still expend energy and labor at tasks, but few earn a living wage from engaging in industry or commerce. Read More

08.31.19- The Key to a Sustainable Economy Is 5,000 Years Old
Ellen Brown

We are again reaching the point in the business cycle known as “peak debt,” when debts have compounded to the point that their cumulative total cannot be paid. Student debt, credit card debt, auto loans, business debt and sovereign debt are all higher than they have ever been. As economist Michael Hudson writes in his provocative 2018 book, “…and forgive them their debts,” debts that can’t be paid won’t be paid. The question, he says, is how they won’t be paid. Read More

08.30.19- King Dollar Paradox: Global Reserve
Jim Willie CB

An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. Read More

08.29.19- “Free” Money Destroys
the U.S. Financial System

Bill Bonner

Today, we are packing up, closing the shutters, putting away the lawn chairs and the croquet set.

Everything needs to be stored away; otherwise, rain, wind, and sun will do their damage. The wood cracks; the metal rusts; the curtains fade…

It is nature’s way. And no matter what we do, nothing resists time. Read More

08.28.19- Trump Needs the Trade War to Maintain the Illusion of a Strong Economy
Bill Bonner

POITOU, FRANCE – The Dow fell hard on Friday.

The proximate source of unease in the markets is the fear that Donald Trump has gone Full Retard.

Yes, Dear Reader, we may be wrong about our president, after all.

What if… instead of being the cynical, canny, conniving, calculating, self-promoting genius we took him for, Donald Trump turns out to be an earnest, world-improving imbecile? Read More

08.27.19- We Are Being Warned That The Last Week Of August “Could Be Highly Volatile” For Global Financial Markets
Michael Snyder

Are things about to break loose in a major way?  At the end of last week, the trade war between the United States and China escalated dramatically, and investors all over the globe really started freaking out.  Unfortunately, developments over the weekend have only made things worse, and that means that this could be a very “interesting” week for global financial markets.  As I write this article, stock prices around the world are plunging, the price of gold is spiking and the Chinese yuan is crashing.  There is clearly a lot of fear out there right now, and at this point even CNBC is warning that the last week of this month “could be highly volatile”… Read More

08.26.19- What Globalism Did Was To Transfer The US Economy To China
Paul Craig Roberts

The main problem with the US economy is that globalism has been deconstructing it. The offshoring of US jobs has reduced US manufacturing and industrial capability and associated innovation, research, development, supply chains, consumer purchasing power, and tax base of state and local governments. Corporations have increased short-term profits at the expense of these long-term costs. In effect, the US economy is being moved out of the First World into the Third World. Read More

08.24.19- Mad World - Currencies to Zero,
Bonds to Minus Zero

Egon von Greyerz

How far down the rabbit hole will the world go? It seems that just like in Alice in Wonderland, things are getting more strange by the day. If it continues at this speed, the rabbit hole will soon become a black hole without a bottom.

Bonds cost money to hold, currencies are soon worth nothing and gold will reach at least $7,000 before it reaches $700.

BONDS WITH NEGATIVE RATES WILL SOON TOTAL $50+ TRILLION  Read More

08.23.19- Dollar Tumbles On Speculation Trump To Announce FX Intervention "Shortly"
Tyler Durden

While Trump's latest Powell lashing on twitter was most notable for the dramatic criticism of the Fed chair, after Trump said "My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel or Chairman Xi?", what was far more interesting in the Trump tweet and what got far less attention, was Trump's disclosure that the Fed is speaking "without knowing or asking what I am doing, which will be announced shortly.Read More

08.22.19- The Dollar’s Decline Will Fuel the Next Commodities Boom
David Foest

Chris’ note: Chris here, managing editor of the Dispatch. With gold on the move – up 18% over the past three months – I tracked down my good friend and go-to person when it comes to all things commodities, David Forest.

I wanted to get Dave’s thoughts on what the big picture looks like… and whether this rally can continue.

As you’ll see, not only is gold just starting to heat up… but the entire commodities sector is on the verge of a huge boom. Read More

08.21.19- When It Comes To The U.S. Economy, Everyone Wants To Pin The Credit Or The Blame On Donald Trump
Michael Snyder

No matter what happens with the U.S. economy, most of the credit or the blame is going to go to President Trump.  And now that the U.S. economy appears to be headed for big trouble, the mainstream media is salivating over what this could mean for Trump’s chances of winning in 2020.  Within the past few days, the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have all run stories about Trump and the economy, and they are all perpetuating the false premise that presidents should be held accountable for how the economy performs. Read More

08.20.19- Asia’s future is now
Justin O. Smith

Asia is on track to top 50 percent of global GDP by 2040 and drive 40 percent of the world’s consumption, representing a real shift in the world’s center of gravity.

For years, Western observers and media have been talking about the rise of Asia in terms of its massive future potential. But the time has come for the rest of the world to update its thinking—because the future arrived even faster than expected. Read More

08.19.19- Why Common Knowledge
Changes The World

Adam Taggart

The private understanding that we're in trouble is suddenly becoming realized by the public

For those paying attention, there have been plenty of signs indicating that financial asset prices are dangerously overvalued and that the decade-long economic expansion is reversing towards recession.

But the mainstream - until just recently - has refused to see this. Read More

08.17.19- Weekend Rant: The State of
the American Debt Slaves, Q2 2019

Wolf Richter

The bifurcation among consumers.

Consumer credit – auto loans, student loans, and revolving credit such as credit card balances and personal loans, but not housing-related debt such as mortgages and HELOCs – grew 5.4%, or by $208 billion, in the second quarter compared to a year ago, to a new record of $4.06 trillion (not seasonally adjusted), according to the Federal Reserve this afternoon.

This 5.4% year-over-year gain was the strongest such gain in two years. The quarterly gain from Q1 to Q2 of $60 billion was the strongest such gain since Q2 2016. In other words, American consumers are not slackers. They are doing their collective job, propping up the US economy, and by extension the global economy, with money they don’t have: Read More

08.16.19- Reality Dawning
Sven Henrich

Yesterday’s announcement by the Trump administration to delay some of the new tariffs on China it just announced a few weeks ago was initially greeted with relief by equity markets across the globe. This proved to be mistake as reality is dawning and global stock markets are selling off hard just a day later on ever weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions. Read More

08.15.19- We Interrupt This Market Plunge To Bring You This Important Message…
Adam Taggart

Time's up. If you're going to take action, do it NOW

The major indices lost 3% pretty much across the board.

We’ve been tracking the drivers underlying the market meltdown here on the site pretty much hourly. And you can be sure we’ll do so as long as things remain fluid. But I want to deliver an important message, because time demands it. Read More

08.14.19- What the Looming US-China Currency War Means for the Economy
Daniel Lacalle

A few months ago many of us read about the theory of “the nuclear option,” according to which China could generate a huge debt crisis in the United States and destroy the US economy if it sold its treasury holdings.

As I mentioned at the time, China can become a greater economic leader, but the Chinese yuan cannot be a global reserve currency while maintaining capital controls and exchange rate fixing. Read More

08.13.19- The Next Lehman Moment
Martin W. Armstrong

I am overseas as a crisis is brewing which many might rename the “Lehman Moment” to something more up to date. Clearly, the stakes are far higher to the world economy than anyone may truly appreciate. We are cascading toward a perfect financial storm. However, this particular storm is exacerbated by the politics of Europe stemming from the structural design of the Euro.  There is a major risk to both the European and world economy. All the Quantitative Easing by Draghi at the European Central Bank (ECB) has completely failed and in the process created a  systemic risk to the entire world economy – not just the EU. This is why the Federal Reserve (Fed) has lowered interest rates when there was no true justification for the interest rate reduction domestically. Read More

08.12.19- Stock Market Crash Imminent?: “We May Well Be At The Most Dangerous Financial Moment Since The 2009 Financial Crisis”
Michael Snyder

Volatility has returned to Wall Street in a major way, and many investors are extremely nervous right now.  In recent days we have seen a dramatic escalationin our trade war with China, and there is a lot of chatter that another stock market crash could be imminent.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 767 points on Monday, that definitely freaked a lot of people out, but then the Dow bounced back 311 points on Tuesday.  Some are taking this as a sign that things are going to be okay, but we need to remember that during any stock market crisis we would expect to see both large up days and large down days.  Read More

08.10.19- Is Nissan About to Go Belly Up?
Eric Peters

Some very bad news today – for Nissan.

Profits are down 99 percent. Not a typo. A near-total wipeout – which triggered the wiping out of 12,500 jobs, the immediate suspension of manufacturing in Indonesia and Spain and an announcement that Japan’s second-largest car company will reduce its model lineup by at least 10 percent by 2022.

Nissan’s U.S. market share is down to 7.9 percent; it was 8.1 percent a year ago.

It is quite possible there won’t be a Nissan by 2022.

So, what’s gone awry? Read More

08.09.19- Revenge of the Millennials
Aaron Clarey

Perhaps it was Starbucks, or perhaps some obscure Minneapolis coffee store in the 90's, but I'm pretty sure the first instance of a company using politics as advertising was a coffee store.  I didn't understand it at first as I thought it was common sense you didn't introduce politics or religion into business because...well...it was bad for business.

Why alienate 1/2 of your potential customer base with politics?
Why alienate 4/5ths of your potential customer base with religion?
 Read More

08.08.19- Global macro trader who nailed the 2008 crisis says next 3 months mark ‘edge of the cliff’ for markets—and ‘we’re there right now’
Mark DeCambre

Financial markets are at a crucial inflection point and Wall Street investors should look no further than the U.S. dollar for the clearest sign of the increasing stress on the system that could ignite a financial crisis a la 2008, says Raoul Pal. 

The former GLG global macro hedge-fund co-manager, who was among the few investors that predicted and profited amid the 2008-09 mortgage meltdown, told MarketWatch in a Wednesday interview that the current set up has led him to a grim forecast for the economy and markets. Read More

08.07.19- Fourth Turning Ecoonomics, Part 2
Jim Quinn

In Part One of this article I laid out the unsustainable economic conditions which will drive the next phase of this Fourth Turnings and detailed the economic factors which drove the previous three American Fourth Turnings.

Strauss and Howe, when writing The Fourth Turning in 1997, did not know the exact circumstances and events which would propel the next Turning. But their study of economic and demographic trends along with the attitudes of generations and historical precedents in prior Fourth Turnings, led them to conclude the driving factors of this Crisis would be debt, global disorder and civic decay. Read More

08.06.19- Fourth Turning Ecoonomics
Jim Quinn

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” Read More

08.05.19- An Opportunity in the Chaos
John Mauldin

One reason the economy is so fascinating is the way things just… happen. Growth blossoms if everyone just follows their own incentives and nothing gets in the way. The courage, vision and passion of entrepreneurs and those who risk their money backing them is one of the most inspiring aspects of modern civilization. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand of now tens of millions of businesses, small and large and giant, working to produce and deliver inventions, technologies and cures that help us all.

Think about ants. They’re marvelous creatures. No individual ant knows how to build a colony, or is even aware it is doing so, but it happens because they’re supremely efficient at simple things. Go to that smell, pick up the object, follow that other ant, repeat. The end result is greater than their tiny brains can comprehend. Read More

08.03.19- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Did U.S. Attorney General Barr Just Trade James Comey’s “Memogate” for “Spygate”?
Douglas Lynn

Awakened Americans realize the nation’s system of justice now remains at a crossroads. Either the Deep State cabal including the likes Comey, Clapper, Brennon, McCabe, Clinton, Strozk, Page, Ohr, and others will continue on their book tours and talk show circuits – or they will face prosecution at the whim of U.S. Attorney General William Barr; as the country now awaits reports from Inspector General Michael Horowitz on FISA Abuse and corruption in the Department of Justice; U.S. Attorney John Huber on Clinton Foundation illegalities; and U.S. Attorney John Durham on the origins of Russiagate. Read More

08.02.19- Yesterday’s Interest Rate Cut Was the Biggest Mistake in Federal Reserve History
Bill Bonner

POITOU, FRANCE – It was the unkindest cut of all.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve whittled down its key lending rate by 25 basis points, in what was probably the biggest mistake in Fed history.

Only Mistakes

As you know, the Fed only makes mistakes. Read More

08.01.19- Congress to Make 401(k)’s Riskier For Your Retirement Savings
Birch Gold Group

In June 2018, the White House let a piece of legislation known as the “fiduciary rule” drop, according to Bloomberg:

The “fiduciary rule” is officially dead. The Labor Department rule, conceived by the Obama administration, was meant to ensure that advisers put their clients’ financial interests ahead of their own when recommending retirement investments. Read More

 

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