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07.15.25- 1 Birthright Gold Stock, 1 Pure Silver Play
It was a bonanza for natural resource bulls. Especially us gold and silver bugs. We heard from and spoke with some of the best mining companies in the world. From early-stage exploration stocks to giants like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). And everything in between. Read More |
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07.14.25- Trump’s Epstein Problem
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07.12.25- What Passive Investing Has Done To Our Retirement
It goes like this: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” It’s called Goodhart’s Law, named after British economist Charles Goodhart. He meant it as a warning to policymakers. Read More |
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07.11.25- The Homeownership Rate Is Lower Now than it Was 45 Years Ago
It’s debatable whether or not such reforms have ever actually worked to increase the homeownership rate, though. In 1930, at the very beginning of the Great Depression, the homeownership rate was 44 percent. During the thirties, the federal government adopted policies that created Fannie Mae and ushered in the era of the 30-year fixed mortgage. Read More |
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07.10.25- The Root of America’s Problems [Podcast]
You might think it’s overspending, or the Federal Reserve, or career politicians. But what if it’s something even more fundamental… like letting just anyone vote? Read More |
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07.08.25- Are Markets Marching Toward A ‘Wile E. Coyote Moment’? To the old line — never bet against the US consumer — might be added a new twist. Never bet against the US retail investor.” Read More |
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07.07.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Cage Match
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07.05.25- Tokenization Begins: A New Way to Buy Private Shares
How about owning shares of other real-world innovators shaping the future? As of today, buying shares in these private companies outright isn’t possible for most investors. Read More |
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07.04.25- What is True Freedom & Liberty? Where Does it Come From?
I am asking readers to really examine just how free are Americans today after all those lives that have been given in the quest for Liberty and Freedom. We hear so much about the sacrifices that the Founding Fathers and the American soldiers sacrificed on our behalf. In spite of all those lives – American falls deeper into Slavery and loss of Liberty than ever before. Read More |
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07.03.25- After 50 Years of US-Government-Sponsored Housing Finance: Why Are Houses So Unaffordable?
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07.02.25- What should Investors expect from declining US residential Property & Stock Prices?
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07.01.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: The Bull is Strong, but the Economy is Weak
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06.30.25- Trust Lost In Banking System
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06.28.25- Why Gold Based International
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06.27.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Why Too Much Optimism
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06.26.25- Buying as the World Burns
…They’re up. In Israel, for example, the stock market has soared to all-time highs. The iShares Israel ETF (EIS) is up a whopping 53% over the past year. Read More |
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06.25.25- The Great Bond Scam: Wall Street’s Biggest Myth Exposed
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06.24.25- The Real Estate Recession
The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of American families own their home – and for most, it’s their single biggest financial asset (as well as where they sleep). Home equity represents a tremendous share of household net worth – about half for the typical family! More of our national wealth is tied up in housing than any other single asset class. Read More |
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06.23.25- Closing The Strait Of Hormuz Will Be A Nightmare Scenario For The Global Economy
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06.21.25- Basel III Changes the Rules. The Rio Reset Changes the Game
Next month, the global financial system will see two very different updates. Now, this is probably just a coincidence. But still, it's a useful coincidence. Because it showcases two very different approaches to problem-solving. Read More |
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06.20.25- Central-Banking Myths that Fed Critics Believe
For example, one will often see Fed critics attacking the Fed for not lowering interest rates enough or soon enough. This is just one variation of the idea that the Fed is not doing things “correctly.” Read More |
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06.18.25- Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Fears Surge After Former Iranian Minister
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06.17.25- WW3 Is… Bullish?
Oil refineries ablaze. Ammo depots bursting into mini-mushroom clouds. Air defense systems exploding spectacularly. The world has never seen war footage like this. Read More |
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06.16.25- $100? $200? $300? – How Catastrophically High Will The Price Of Oil Go When Iran Closes The Strait Of Hormuz?
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Long, a Republican who served in Congress from 2011 to 2023, once sponsored a bill to eliminate the IRS entirely. Read More |
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06.13.25- The CAPE Crusader Unveils a Bubble
Goldman’s optimism was based on reduced U.S.-China tariff anxieties, and better than expected economic growth forecasts. The bank’s economists put the chance of a U.S. recession at 35 percent over the coming 12 months, with GDP to expand by 1.6 percent. Read More |
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06.12.25- AI is Going to Generate a MASSIVE Boom in Hard Assets
As I’ve laid out in the last few articles, the AI revolution is moving into its next phase: physical AI. This is the phase in which AI software is integrated with physical hardware (robots, appliances, automobiles, etc.). Some recent developments:
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06.10.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: The Numbers Are Breaking down, but What they Mean and Where They Are Heading Looks Worse
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06.09.25- The Truth About
You’ll recall the buzz from earlier this year. Trump and Musk loudly announced they were going to visit the U.S. bullion depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky to make sure the U.S. gold was actually there. The press was invited to tag along. Musk claimed that his DOGE team was ready to “audit” the gold bars to see that there were none missing. I had my own views on the announcement (described below) but I certainly agreed this would be the mother of all photo ops. Read More |
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06.07.25- And Now. for Something Entirely Different: The DogeFather in Exile
The task for DOGE was simple enough. Musk would apply the disruptive magic of Silicon Valley to the grim halls of Washington. He’d shutter all the useless agencies that specialize in pointless minutia and archaic laws and regulations. He’d eliminate waste and make the government more efficient. Why not? Read More |
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06.06.25- ‘Something to Behold’: Silver Miners Explode
The moment we’ve been waiting for approaches. Poor man’s gold broke out to a 13-year high over $36 per ounce, up more than 4% as of 9:30 am. And the miners? Oh boy… Read More |
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06.05.25- Demand in the Housing Market Just Got Even Worse, as Supply Piles Up
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06.04.25- Americans Are Dangerously Vulnerable To A Stock Market Correction
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06.03.25- Space Is The Most Undervalued Industry
The science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke wrote back in 1977: “The impact of satellites on the entire human race will be at least the same impact as the advent of the telephone in so-called developed societies”. And he was right. Satellite mega-constellations such as Starlink, Qianfan, Kuiper, and Sat Net will ensure that the third of the world’s population that does not currently have access to the internet will soon be connected. Read More |
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06.02.25- Ray Dalio Is Predicting
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05.30.25- The Gold Bull Market Has Just Begun
Every day is a circadian cycle for us all. Our bodies move through phases based on our exposure to light or darkness. Markets are also remarkably cyclical, responding to the environment around them. Interest rates, regulation, monetary policy and investor psychology all play important roles. Read More |
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05.29.25- Trump’s Monetary Reset: Is a Gold-Backed Dollar on the Horizon?
Two powerful catalysts are driving the coming monetary reset. Read More |
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05.28.25- The Multi-Trillion Dollar Question Investors Need to Answer
As I outlined in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy the bond bubble is THE definitive bubble of our lifetimes. Every other bubble whether it be the Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble, etc. has been a derivative of the almighty bond bubble that was generated during the super cycle bull market in bonds that went from 1982 to 2020. Read More |
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05.27.25- A Dying Man Will Try Any Medicine
Now we have craziness at the international trade level. At its core, it’s all politics. The now dead George Carlin had a skit where he told us why he doesn’t vote. To quote: Read More |
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05.26.25- I Sold Almost All My Stocks – “I’ve Seen This Party Before”
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05.24.25- The Rio Reset's New Architecture Rests on an Old Foundation
If you're familiar with my original Rio Reset article, then you already know what's going on, If you're not, here's a brief recap: Read More |
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05.23.25- America's Dire Fiscal Condition
The National debt rose from less than $6 trillion in 2000 to over $37 trillion today. Our debt is now 720% greater than our annual revenue. The Nation's annual deficit for fiscal 2025 is projected to be $1.9 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP. The US Government now spends more on interest payments on the National Debt ($1.11 Trillion) than National Defense ($1.10 Trillion). The CATO Institute projects that the US government will pay $2 trillion in interest payments on all this debt in the next 10 years. Read More |
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05.22.25- Economic Growth vs. the Stock Market
Most financial commentators are of the view that increases in the stock market translate to an increase in economic growth. The reason is because the increase in stock prices lifts consumer and business optimism, which, in turn, boosts consumer and business demand for goods and services. This, in turn, strengthens the economy. But is it valid to hold that what drives the economy is the demand for goods and services? Read More |
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05.21.25- Is Japan’s Financial System On The Verge Of Collapsing?
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05.20.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Donald of Arabia
“This is a bar for British officers,” replied the diminutive man behind the marble counter. “That’s alright,” said Trump. “We are not particular.” After a short, sharp, shouting match, a senior officer walked up and officiously demanded to know, “What’s going on?” Read More |
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They're Moving the Markets With Lies...
One of the more challenging aspects of today’s stock market is that it is being driven by headlines. And the headlines are not always correct (or honest). Case in point, throughout the month of April China claimed it was NOT in trade negotiations with the Trump administration. They even claimed this AFTER Chinese officials were seen entering the U.S. Treasury on April 25th 2025. Read More |
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05.17.25- Yikes. The “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL” tax bill is the opposite of what America needs.
It was expensive and highly unpopular among investors. And wealthy Athenians simply stopped investing in local businesses to avoid the tax. |
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05.16.25- From Strategic Retreat to Full Retreat
On Monday, in a joint statement from Geneva, it was announced that the United States and?China had agreed to a 90-day pause on the?tariffs they had put in place over the last month. In the interim, they are, “Moving forward in the spirit of mutual opening, continued communication, cooperation, and mutual respect.” Read More |
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05.15.25- Doug Casey on DOGE, Deficits, and the Coming Financial Earthquake
Doug Casey: I hate to sound pessimistic, because the idea of DOGE was excellent, but it’s not making much in the way of progress. Musk first thought he could cut $2 trillion from the budget. I see how he could say that; it’s a very reasonable estimate. But as he discovered the depth of the resistance, he reduced it to $1 trillion. And now it’s $150 billion—and he’s probably not even going to be able to do that. Read More |
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05.14.25- The Russell 2000: An Earnings Illusion
But once you learn the truth about the Russell 2000 small cap index, you just might hate it too. Today we’re going to explore why the Russell 2000 makes a bad foundation for any investment vehicle. Read More |
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05.13.25- Wealth Generation and the Market Economy
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05.12.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The OKC Bombing Sting Operation and the Ford Bronco
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05.10.25- Why We Can Forget About
Buffett famously quipped, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” which was ultimately a nod to the cyclical nature of markets and the economy. Read More |
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05.09.25- Debt Spiral, Treasury Market Stress, and a New Financial Order
Doug Casey: It’s only important because it exists—but it shouldn’t exist. People think that the Treasury market is part of the cosmic firmament, but there once was a time when the US government had little or no debt outstanding, and the world got by fine without it.Read More |
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05.08.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Will America Survive?
American aggression toward the world is hidden under a euphemism: “national defense.” In past years before euphemisms took over from reality, the Secretary of Defense was known as the Secretary of War. Read More |
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05.07.25- Trade in your Big Ships for a Little Junk from China
Tariff news out of Trump’s mouth was not what stocks wanted to hear, so their nonsense rally ended today.Read More |
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05.06.25- Trump-Led Agency Warns America Is Heading for an Economic Hurricane
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05.05.25- "Resistance Is Futile" -
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05.03.25- Cracked Shells:
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05.02.25- Apollo's Torsten Slok Unveils Timeline For Trade War Fallout
For those tracking trade developments in recent weeks, this freight downturn was entirely predictable: Read More |
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05.01.25- The Recession Begins! GDP Subsides, Inflation Heats up, Jobs Fall into a Pit.
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04.30.25- American Capitalism’s Worst Nightmare
And we do mean wrong—as in completely, unequivocally and with no if, ands or buts. Indeed, Trump thinks large trade deficits are prima facie evidence of cheating by our trading partners, yet the evidence debunks that primitive axiom with such alacrity as to literally shutdown the argument. Read More |
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04.29.30- Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets!
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04.28.25- Did Someone Call The COMEX Bluff?
The data below looks at contract delivery where the ownership of physical metal changes hands within CME vaults. It also shows data that details the movement of metal in and out of CME vaults. It is very possible that if there is a run on the dollar, and a flight into gold, this is the data that will show early warning signs. Read More |
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04.26.25- Sorting Through The Chaos
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04.25.25- Make Depressions Great Again
Are extreme tariff policies one of President Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ tactics? Or is the ground shifting beneath the feet of the global economy and financial markets? Read More |
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04.24.25- Marching Toward a Liquidity Cliff
In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, seismic geopolitical shifts, de-dollarization trends, extreme market volatility and recessionary reality into a simple lens: It all boils down to an unprecedented national and global debt crisis. Read More |
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04.22.25- A Crisis Was Ordered Long Ago
“Wall Street got drunk,” President Bush said in 2008, to which Peter Schiff replied, “They did. And the Fed provided the liquor!” Schiff—who credits his understanding of markets and Austrian economics to his father’s teachings growing up—is renowned for his prediction of the Financial Crisis of 2008, years before the housing market nosedived. His position earned him the scorn and ridicule of almost every other commentator, as seen in this collection of videos, but he never blinked. The market was in trouble, not because of a lack of regulations, but because the government and the Fed were on a fiat money high. Read More |
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Consequences of the AI Disruption
To prepare, I’ve been brushing up on past industrial revolutions, starting with the first one, which took place from around 1750 to 1830. A few of the more disruptive inventions from this period include: Read More |
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04.19.25- Trump vs Powell - New Gold-Backed Sound Money Plan Revealed
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04.18.25- Potential for War With Iran—and the Financial Shockwaves That Could Follow
How likely is it that this long-simmering standoff erupts into a full-scale war? Read More |
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04.17.25- The Catastrophic Consequences of Under-Competence
Author Charles Perrow studied organizational weaknesses that generate flawed responses to what he calls "normal accidents," responses that made the situation far worse. In other words, the system itself increases the risks of normal accidents becoming catastrophic accidents. Read More |
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04.16.25- These Amps Go Up to Eleven
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04.15.25- Can Trump Really Bring Back Manufacturing To The U.S.?
One of Donald Trump’s big campaign promises had to do with bringing back manufacturing jobs to the U.S., and for a big portion of the working aged population, maybe especially in the rust belt, that is hugely important. We all saw steel, auto, and other manufacturing and related industries struggling over the last few decades. Read More |
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04.14.25- Dead Bull Walking
But no one’s told your portfolio yet. Volatility is flaring. Headlines are swinging from panic to euphoria. One day it’s a crash, the next it’s a 10% rally. Every move feels like a trap. Read More |
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Some of the world’s most highly respected cancer experts are sounding the alarm over concerns of the looming health crisis. Read More |
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04.11.25- China Escalates With 125% Tariff On US Imports, Signals Will "Ignore" Future Retaliation
As the week concludes, the U.S. and China are locked in a heated, once-in-a-century trade war. Earlier, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional country-specific tariffs for countries that have refrained from taking retaliatory measures—an apparent attempt to isolate China and use tariffs to get Beijing to strike a trade deal. Read More |
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04.10.25- Trump Triples Down:
Most are working out well. Gold, silver, tobacco. Even Brazil is holding up pretty well compared to the rest of the market. We’ve recommended raising cash and limiting exposure to U.S. stocks. However, there is one investment idea I proposed which needs an update due to recent developments. Read More |
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04.09.25- China Has An Insidious 6 Point Plan To Defeat Donald Trump And Win The Economic War
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04.08.25- It's a Total Global Bloodbath Today!
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04.07.25- Forget about AI: America is about to be the world leader in socks and underwear
In today’s podcast, we dig into the many, many unforeseen consequences of the new tariff policies. For example: Read More |
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04.05.25- Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed
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04.04.25- When Bank of Mom and Dad
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, recently showed consumer prices increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in February. If you exclude food and energy, the PCE price index increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Read More |
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04.03.25- Tariff Rift
As of April 5, a universal 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the United States will go into effect. Days later, a raft of reciprocal tariffs—as high as 49% on Cambodia and 54% on China—will begin rolling out country by country. Read More |
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04.02.25- The Rio Reset: Inside the BRICS Scheme to Hotwire the Global Economy
BRICS+ leaders are meeting in Rio de Janiero this summer. Their dedollarization drive has made huge progress over the last two years. Here’s what they’ve accomplished so far – and why the Rio Reset will stun the world…Read More |
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04.01.25- 30% Market Correction + Recession 'Baked In The Cake'?
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03.31.25- Warren Buffett Gets It Wrong
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03.29.25- The Dumbest Investment in the World
Well, you never know, do you? Recall that the Argentines introduced a “century bond’ in 2017. At the time, we were not alone in considering it the ‘dumbest investment in the world.’ Read More |
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03.28.25- Trump Tariffs Gone Wild
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03.27.25- Global Markets Slide Spooked By Trump Auto Tariffs
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03.26.25- Total (Trade) War
When preparing for financial warfare, nations aim to become as self-reliant as possible. In agriculture, manufacturing, refining, mining, drilling, and more. The stronger a nation is in these areas, the stronger its negotiating position will be. Read More |
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03.25.25- Will US Debt Cause
This way of thinking originates in the writings of Irving Fisher who held that a major risk factor is the debt liquidation. According to Fisher, this can occur on account of a shock such as a decline in the stock market. As a result, this is likely to generate a decline in money supply Read More |
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03.24.25- Commercial Real Estate Is in
Putting a number to the percentage, “The 1.57 percent delinquency percentage means more than $47.1B of loans would have been delinquent at the end of the year,” writes Billy Wadsack for Bisnow’s Dallas-Fort Worth bureau. That’s an 88 percent increase from a decade ago. Read More |
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03.22.25- Trump’s MAGA Policies
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03.21.25- Peace in Ukraine: Investor Implications
This week Presidents Trump and Putin had a 2+ hour phone call which apparently went well. Both leaders expressed a strong desire to end the war, and more than that, expand bilateral relations. Read More |
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03.20.25- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 10 Signs That A Significant Portion Of Our Population Has Gone Nuts
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03.19.25- Tesla’s Existential Threat
In the midst of this market chaos, yesterday a friend texted me, saying, “I’m thinking about buying more Tesla here.” Historically, big pullbacks in Tesla have turned out to be excellent buying opportunities. But I had to tell him that I don’t believe the risk/reward is favorable here. Read More |
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03.18.25- Here Are 7 Astonishing Economic Charts That Will Absolutely Blow Your Mind
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03.17.25- Globalist Games: They Play, We Pay
He only recently became a politician, but already he’s sitting at the head of the class! No worries, though. He has the kind of résumé all globalists in good standing with Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum would envy. He ran not only the Bank of Canada, but also the Bank of England. He’s a central banker extraordinaire! He loves printing funny money and manipulating markets. Artificially created inflation is his jam, man! Read More |
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03.15.25- We Just Got A Big Red
As Lenin put it, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Under that philosophy, this has been at least a six-decade week. Things sure are “interesting” right now, and are likely to become even more so… Read More |
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03.14.25- President Trump's Tariffs: A New Golden Age For American Aluminum Workers
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03.13.25- The Walmart Bubble
On Monday, JPMorgan economists raised their risk of recession to 40%. Big banks are typically bullish to a fault, so this is noteworthy. Meanwhile, a recent poll revealed that more than half of Americans have less than $500 in savings. Read More |
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03.12.25- Trade Wars
Oh, OK, it’s not ancient and it’s not Chinese, but it’s a good curse, nonetheless. And it’s hard to think of a more apt description of 2025 than “interesting.” It seems like every day this year there’s been a new, blockbuster story to displace yesterday’s blockbuster story from the 24/7 doomscroll feed. Israel is preparing a “Hell Plan” for Gaza. Read More |
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03.11.25- “Shipbuilding, Shipbuilding, Shipbuilding” – Half a $Trillion Is in Play
Through his contracts and spending power, this guy buys steel by the tens of thousands of tons. Along the way, he moves aluminum and copper markets. Beyond basic metals, he procures train cars filled with machinery, electrical equipment and much else. Read More |
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03.10.25- Futures Slide As Recession Fears Mount, Trump Warns Of Looming "Disruption"
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03.08.25- The Pain Begins
Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, has made a flurry of recent media appearances. And he’s setting expectations low. Bessent recently admitted to CNBC that America has “become addicted to government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period”. A detox period, you say? Hmmm. Read More |
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03.07.25- New US Tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico Take Effect
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03.06.25- Brace for Economic Turbulence
But the promised change never arrived. Until now. Today the bloated federal government is being deflated by President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Read More |
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03.05.25- This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa
The island had lost about 10% of its population— mostly young, educated professionals, i.e., the most lucrative members of its tax base. Read More |
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03.04.25- The Weirdest, Saddest Recession Indicator I Ever Heard Of
There’s a common lapse in memory that I see regularly among many people that like to get into the numbers in economics and finance (like me), and that is to forget the human side of the issue. Read More |
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03.03.25- And Now, for Something Entirely DifferentThe Original Matrix - What They Don't Teach You About Money
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03.01.25- Stock Market Trembles with Deep Fear over Inflation and Job News
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02.28.25- Federal Workers Sing the Blues
Suppose you were an average student in high school without any real academic focus. Your guidance counselor told you that college graduates earn more over their working lives than their peers who only graduated high school. Read More |
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02.27.25- Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever
Real estate is cyclical, which means it has its booms and busts, each of which differs slightly from the last. But today’s US housing market is so outside the norm that its strangeness has become the story’s main theme. Consider: Numerically speaking, housing used to be driven by young families buying starter houses. But today, the median age of homebuyers is 56. Read More |
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02.26.25- Brazilian Stocks Offer 8% Yields at 8x Earnings
My biggest weakness is that I hate owning overvalued stocks. I look at the S&P 500 today and simply cannot pull the trigger. It’s too expensive. Read More |
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02.25.25- When Markets Misbehave
When Benoit Mandelbrot's book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of us. I remember sitting in my car in a parking lot, unwilling to tear myself away from reading it. Read More |
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02.24.25- Using Dow Jones’ Daily Volatility to Time the Market
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02.22.25- Time For a Mercy Killing – The House GOP’s Budget Resolution Hides a
The whole point of the 1974 budget act and its mechanism of budget resolutions and reconciliation instructions was to enable elected politician to curb their propensity to spend and borrow, and to thereby put an effective lid on the public debt. A half century latter, however, the House Republicans are making a sheer mockery of the act with a resolution which actually instructs four leading House Committees to do theopposite. That is, to RAISE the deficit by $6 trillion over the next decade! Read More |
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02.21.25- The Coming Monetary Reset And Trump's Impact On Gold & The Dollar
Meanwhile, long-term interest rates are climbing, even as the Fed lowers short-term rates. Can the US government keep kicking the can down the road? Or will Trump have to reset the system? Read More |
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02.20.25- This Is Why The Bitter Feud Between President Trump And “President Z” Has Just Brought Us Even Closer To Nuclear War
Needless to say, the moment the Russians start conducting military strikes inside the UK, the U.S. would be forced to intervene and we would be right on the brink of nuclear war. Read More |
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02.19.25- Conspiracy Theorists Were Right About Everything – Now What?
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02.18.25- A Game of Chicken
The only way to prevent it is to make dramatic policy changes now — not just to ‘improper payments’ to federal bureaucrats, but also serious cuts to the firepower industry. Read More |
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Bureaucracy Is One Of The Central Pillars Of Our Economy, And It Is Starting To Crumble (Jobless Claims In D.C. Up 36% In 1 Week!)
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02.15.25- Darkness Dying
The exorcism of the USA just keeps revving up. You can tell by the number of revolutions-per-minute Elizabeth Warren’s head spins while she spews pea soup at the cameras. Who knew what a demon-infested slough USA Management Central was? And yes, I would like some insight as to how humble civil servants like Liz Warren accrue a $12-million fortune . . . and $30-million for Samantha Power (ex-USAID-chief) . . . and more than $150-million for Nancy Pelosi. Could it be as simple as just good stock-picking? (Is that how they spend their time?) Read More |
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02.14.25- 2025 Economic Predictions already Coming true on Schedule
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02.13.25- Trump’s Microcap Renaissance
It was about to go bankrupt. And… the government swooped in to save it. All at the taxpayer’s expense. Fast forward to October 1, 2024… Read More |
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02.12.25- Futures, Rates Flat Ahead Of High-Stakes CPI Report
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02.11.25- Hostile Takeover of Canada
Donald Trump, with his absurd megalomaniac claims to Greenland, Canada, Panama and now Gaza, has managed to do what no one else has done. He has made the United States hated across Canada, even in usually pro-American Alberta. Read More |
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02.10.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
What’s your take on this development? Doug Casey: Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More |
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02.08.25- The Crises Yet to Come
That the Trump Reformation / Counter-Reformation is disrupting various nodes of the status quo is viewed as an existential crisis by many. The choice between Reformation / Counter-Reformation seems to cleave on this basic perception: the status quo in its 2024 configuration was ably serving the common good, or the the status quo in its 2024 configuration had veered from the basics of accountability, efficiency and transparency into self-serving self-righteousness, defending its sclerosis and inefficiency via political correctness and narrative control. Read More |
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02.07.25- How China’s DeepSeek Could Disrupt Financial Markets and Global Stability
What’s your take on this development? Doug Casey:Technology—all technologies—inevitably become better and cheaper over time. That trend has been in motion, at an accelerating rate, since at least the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago the hyperbolic curve has gone vertical. Read More |
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02.06.25- Trade Wars Bring Pain… And Opportunity
After months of threatening tariffs on U.S. trading partners during his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump has now taken definitive action on that front. On Saturday, February 1, Trump announced that the U.S. was imposing 25% tariffs on all goods imported to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada (with the exception of Canadian energy, which was tariffed at 10%) and additional 10% tariffs on all goods imported from China. Read More |
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02.05.25- Ferris Bueller’s “Crisis Bubble”
Ferris Bueller wasn’t a trader (forgive me for adapting the iconic movie quote). But if Ferris ever had the urge to dip his toes into the markets, he’d probably have the perfect mindset to deal with this noisy, volatile news cycle. For the past two weeks, we’ve watched the same situation play out. Here’s how it goes: Read More |
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02.04.25- This trade war might be the straw that breaks the US dollar’s back.
The Byzantine Empire was still a vast and powerful state by the late 12th century. But it was becoming obvious to anyone paying attention that they were in serious decline. Read More |
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02.03.25- Are They Positioning Themselves
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02.01.25- Rickards: A U.S. Recession is Coming
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01.31.25- The End of America’s Financial Contract
America was the undisputed King of the World. I watched Lawrence Taylor beat up opposing quarterbacks every autumnal Sunday of my youth. Joe Montana won four Super Bowls. Some guy named Bo Jackson was an All-Star in both football and baseball. Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, and Donnie Baseball were the diamond’s elite. Wayne Gretzky rewrote the record books in ice hockey. Magic and Larry dominated the NBA, soon to hand it over to Michael Jordan. Mike Tyson was a 22-year-old heavyweight champion. Ayrton Senna and Mario Andretti were racing royalty. Read More |
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01.30.25- The Release of DeepSeek AI Humiliates Western Companies and Forces Americans to See the Superiority of China
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01.28.25- The U.S. Empire Is Entering
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01.27.25- DeepSeek Pulls Rug Out On Nvidia, ASML
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01.25.25- The Health Sector Is in a Panic
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01.24.25- Mastering the Art of Speculation and Today’s Top Opportunities
Doug Casey: The word “speculator” is generally misused and poorly defined. Let’s put it in context, along with some related terms that it’s usually confused with. First, what is a speculator? A speculator is someone who capitalizes on distortions in the market. These distortions are mostly caused by the actions of government, so most are political in nature. But distortions can also be caused by natural disasters or aberrations of public psychology.Read More |
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01.23.25- How to Stop the BRICS Nations from Abandoning the Dollar
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01.22.25- Welcome to The Trump Crypto Era
On Friday night around 9pm EST President Trump launched a new cryptocurrency. When Trump first posted the news on Truth Social and X.com, people thought his accounts must have been hacked. But somehow, it was real. Read More |
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01.21.25- The Competency Crisis Proliferating The West
Aurelien highlights the strange lack of realism by which the West has approached the crisis — Read More |
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01.20.25- Druckenmiller Declares: U.S. Going From 'The Most Anti-Business Administration In History To The Opposite'
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01.18.25- Zen And The Art Of Market Crash Fear Porn
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01.17.25- December CPI: The Good, the Bad, and the Expensive
That’s how I felt reading the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. I mean, it wasn’t awful. But it wasn’t good either. Read More |
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01.16.25- What If Tech, the Market and the State Are No Longer Solutions?
The status quo rests on a foundational belief that all problems, regardless of their nature, can be solved by technology, the market or the government (i.e. the state), or some combination of these three. Read More |
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01.15.25- The Big Bipolar Breakout
Trump had just won the election. Bullish momentum thrusts were popping up left and right. Small-caps and the major averages were breaking out. Everywhere you looked, stocks were posting new highs.Read More |
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01.14.25- Full Speed Ahead
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01.13.25- THE DEEPER DIVE: Will the Stock Market Dive in '25?
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01.11.25- Rational Despair
President-elect Trump wants to keep both the stock market and economic levitation going. Asset prices and low unemployment provide a superficial appearance of good health. Trump’s a reality TV guy. He wants things to look good. He wants to have rising stock indexes and low unemployment to point to as validation of his policies. Read More |
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01.10.25- Positioned For a Historic Crash
Kamala Harris presided over the ceremony as president of the Senate and faced the awkward task as she formally certified Trump’s victory and her own loss. Read More |
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01.09.25- “Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025
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01.08.25- Pressing for Yet More
Reliable valuation measures are enormously informative about both long-term investment returns and the potential depth of market losses over the completion of any given market cycle. At the same time, valuations are of strikingly little use in projecting market outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle. Investor psychology – the desire to speculate, or the aversion to risk – has a much stronger impact, which is why we also have to attend to factors including market internals, sentiment, short-term overextension / compression, and monetary policy (while unfavorable market internals dominate monetary easing, favorable internals amplify it). Read More |
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It started almost exactly a year ago. It was January 2, 2024, and we wrote to you about a new law that had just taken effect called the Corporate Transparency Act, or the CTA. Read More |
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01.06.25- Doug Casey’s Top Prediction for 2025
What major event or trend should people prepare for that most are currently overlooking? Doug Casey: The trends that appeared, seemingly against all odds, in 2024 are going to accelerate. Read More |
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01.04.25- Trump’s Plan to End Currency War 3.0
Trump badly bungled his transition after first being elected president in 2016. He was not ready with a long list of loyal appointees. Many of his senior appointments such as Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, James Mattis as Secretary of Defense, and John Kelly as Chief of Staff secretly disliked Trump but accepted their roles as so-called “adult supervision” around the supposedly reckless Trump. Read More |
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01.03.25- 10 Stock Market Predictions for 2025
Stepping into a new year, investors have a lot to be thankful for. In 2024, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.11%), benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%), and technology-driven Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 0.68%) all reached multiple record-closing highs. Read More |
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01.02.25- Recession Watch: Broke Consumers, Tanking Houses
Credit card debt set to hit record levels as consumer holiday spending rises(CNBC) - Heading into the holidays, many Americans were already saddled with record-breaking credit card debt. And yet, consumer spending is set to reach a fresh high this season. Read More |
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01.01.25- My Predictions for 2025? You Don’t Want to Know.
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12.30.24- Stock Market Crash in 2025! Stocks Have NEVER Been as Precarious as they Are Now
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12.28.24- The World Order Is Dangerously In Flux
I would guess that you’re feeling as if anything might happen now. It’s hard to rule out even the possibility that we could all be vaporized before moving onto the next mundane chore of the day. The world order is dangerously in flux. Read More |
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12.27.24- US Stock Futures Drop As 10Y Yield Trades Near 2024 High
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12.26.24- Will Russia Collapse in 2025?
I raise this question not only because Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II, and still Putin has not cleared Ukrainian troops from the small Donbas area or from the Ukrainian invasion of Russian Kursk. Does anyone remember when Putin declared that Russia would never again fight a war on its own territory? Putin has been fighting a war on Russia’s own territory for longer than the Soviet offensive took to drive the German invaders out of Russia. Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty. Read More |
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12.25.24- It's A Wonderful Life and A Political One
Such general encouragement may seem more needed than ever these days; indeed, this may be, sadly, the cause of the film’s popularity. But “It’s a Wonderful Life” may be more important still for its overlooked lesson in democratic economics, a lesson arising from the struggle for survival of a combination credit union and savings bank, the Bailey Building & Loan in the Everytown of Bedford Falls.Read More |
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12.24.24- Big Money
Forbes:
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12.23.24- National Self-Perception
Bill Shakespeare had a talent for phrasing basic truths well, and this quote is no exception. (Even if you lie to others, don’t lie to yourself, or you’re in real trouble.) Much has been said about the American self-image, going back to its inception as an upstart nation that imagined it could succeed as a republic, as Athens had failed to do. Read More |
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12.21.24- The Correction Is Not Over Yet
When it comes to the Fed, words speak louder than actions. As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. However, Fed Chair Powell said that the number of rate cuts in 2025 would be just two, down from four in September. This is hawkish, obviously. The markets responded accordingly Read More |
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12.20.24- Microsoft's $200 Billion Bitcoin Moment
That’s the amount of cash Microsoft is sitting on – money that could have made history a few weeks ago. The crypto world watched with bated breath as Microsoft shareholders faced a decision that would ripple through Wall Street: whether to turn some of that mountain of cash into Bitcoin. Read More |
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12.19.24- Trump’s Economic Plans
His core economic team is already announced including Russell Vought as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative, Kevin Hassett as Director of the National Economic Council, Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. Read More |
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12.18.24- Will the New Tariff Coming to Town Put Stocks in the Stockade or Shoot up Inflation?
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12.17.24- Trade Wars Accelerate
As a result, China’s share of the U.S. trade deficit dropped from 47% to 26%. However, it’s worth noting that America’s trade imbalance continued to rise, as production shifted to low-tariff countries such as Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico. Read More |
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12.16.24- Legendary Investor Sold His US Stocks, Here's Why
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12.14.24- A "Spectacular Implosion" In Stocks Is Due Once The Euphoria Ends
Excited in part by the pro-business policies of the incoming Trump administration, stocks are back to trading at record highs and investor and business confidence is rising. But that said, the average American household is still struggling under a high cost of living, and a labor market that does not seem as robust as we've been told. Read More |
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12.13.24- The Hardest Retirement Math
And it seems like nobody knows exactly how to figure out how much today’s dollars will be worth tomorrow…Everyone agrees (if they’ve thought about it) that retirement planning is a good idea. Read More |
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12.12.24- The mother of all bubbles
The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’ The idea of America as an exceptional nation, superior to its rivals and therefore destined to lead the world, seems passé to most observers. In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of a dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarised at home. But in the investing world, the term “American exceptionalism” is hotter than ever. Read More |
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12.11.24- East Vs. West: A Global Dollar Dump Is Inevitable And The US Must Prepare
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12.10.24- The Ultimate Hustle Economy
Its cash reserves were dwindling rapidly. Its losses were mounting. And the once mighty company was just 90 days away from failing. Read More |
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12.09.24- The Deeper Dive: Some Predict a Major, MAJOR Stock Blow-off is Imminent
As promised, this weekend’s Deeper Dive will pull together the best bits from a few videos published in The Daily Doom headlines this week about the prospects for an imminent major stock market crash. I’ll include each video and bullet-point the reasons given for believing a major crash is imminent as I go from video to video on what turned out to be a common theme to all of them. Read More |
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12.07.24- The Peasants’ Revolt 2.0
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12.06.24- A Critical Time for America
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12.05.24- The Looming Debt Crisis: Is America Following the Path of Collapsed Empires?
Debt can topple even the most powerful empires. Whether it’s Rome, Spain, France, Britain, or the Soviet Union, excessive debt has played a critical role in their decline. The typical pattern in these examples of collapsing empires is: Read More |
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12.04.24- The Debt Monster and the Big Men
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12.03.24- Are We Headed For A Economic Collapse?! Silver Prices Will GO PARABOLIC!
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Yahoo is using AI to generate takeaways from this article. This means the info may not always match what's in the article. Reporting mistakes helps us improve the experience. Read More |
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11.30.24- The end of globalization:
The first great wave of globalization ended with World War I, and was followed by trade wars and deep depressions throughout the interwar period. Although trade integration resumed after World War II – facilitating the reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan – its scope remained limited. It was not until the late 1980s and early 1990s that the next great wave of globalization began.(Project Syndicate, ‘The Dangerous Retreat Into Protectionism’, May 21, 2024) Read More |
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11.29.24- The Zealous Pursuit of Retail Therapy
The stock market is in full melt up. The Trump bump is powering share prices higher. Investors and speculators expect a bright future. And their intentions are to exploit it for personal profit. Read More |
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11.28.24- Seven Key Indicators to Watch as the Dollar Declines
But is the dollar really in trouble? Investment guru Nick Giambruno thinks it is. In fact, he believes the dollar will ultimately collapse. Read More |
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11.27.24- About that “Government Efficiency”
It was the culmination of weak, incompetent leadership combined with massive government spending throughout the stagflation of the 1970s— an entire decade of high unemployment, little growth, and a rising cost of goods and services. Read More |
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Turkey, Touchdowns, and Trading
This is easily my favorite holiday. I get a midweek break in the market action filled with food, family, and football — without the added stress of exchanging gifts and all the cleanup that comes after a busy Christmas morning with the kids… Read More |
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11.25.24- Americans Need $5.3 Million Net Worth To Be Considered Financially Successful: Survey
An annual salary in excess of $270,000 is needed for a person to be considered successful in the United States, the Nov. 22 survey found. In terms of net worth, the threshold is at $5.3 million. Read More |
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11.23.24- Three Unusual Inflation Hedges
Today we’ll examine the benefits of owning firearms, farmland, and fixed-rate mortgages during inflationary periods. Let’s get started. Read More |
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11.22.24- Elon Musk’s Wrecking Ball and Your Financial Future
One of Donald Trump's big campaign promises when he won both in 2016 and this year was to reduce the size of the Federal government and radically reduce government spending. Read More |
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11.21.24- Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields
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11.20.24- How to Stick The Market Melt-Up
The sharp election rally has given way to some volatility as investors digest the moves, fill some gaps, and nervously wait to see what stocks and sectors bounce first. Read More |
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11.19.24- A Watched Market Crash Pot Never Boils
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11.18.24- Regional Banks To Go Bust? Massive Bailouts Coming
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11.16.24- The US Economy Will Collapse: How Trump Should Handle It
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11.15.24- How The Trade War Ends
The point is that free trade not only increases the wealth of different societies, but it may also be essential for peaceful relations. The breakdown of free trade has often coincided with wars. These wars start as currency and trade wars and then escalate into shooting wars. This is something to be mindful of as President-elect Trump amps up forthcoming import tariffs. Read More |
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11.14.24- Trump’s Second Term: What It Means for America and Investors
How do you expect it to differ from his first term? Doug Casey:Thank heavens Kamala lost. If she’d won, the Jacobins would have cemented their hold on the country, and it would have been “game over.” We would have seen an acceleration of cultural decline, vastly higher taxes and regulations, and a serious push to shut down free speech. Read More |
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11.13.24- American Economy Bleaker
More voices are harmonizing with mine by saying that the recession already began this year. (Which is not to say they are saying it with any awareness of what I’ve been saying, as I don’t suppose they are.) Today, Ed Dowd says that Donald Trump is inheriting “a turd of an economy” because the facts have been concealed (read “stealth recession)” behind “such blatant manipulation of government statistics.” Read More |
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11.12.24- Hold Your Nose and Buy!
This is not one of those times. Stocks have exploded higher since the election, with some of the market’s most speculative areas taking on leadership roles. If you’re looking for a melt-up, you’ve come to the right place. Read More |
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11.11.24- Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary
Bond prices collapsed nearly 3% post-election and are down 12% since mid-September. Whatever that tells us did not change because of election results. Read More |
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11.09.24- Judy Shelton Returns With A Bold Plan To Restore Gold
In her newest work, former Trump administration advisor Judy Shelton argues that a return to sound money requires going back to gold. Read More |
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11.08.24- The Road to America’s Golden Age
Make a toast or say a prayer. It all depends on your political and spiritual preferences. There are times to kiss the bottle. So, too, there are times to kneel in church. Perhaps now is the time for both. “This will truly be the golden age of America,” remarked Trump. Read More |
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11.07.24- The Recession Of 2025 Will Be Backdated
That’s a lot to consider so let’s unpack this a bit. Read More |
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11.06.24- Trump Wins, Sends 'Trumpquake' Through Washington
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11.05.24- The Great Blunder In Public Finance
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11.02.24- Why the DOLLAR will collapse, GOLD will rule, and America will FRACTURE
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11.01.24- The Brics Version of Globaloney
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10.31.24- US Treasury: Funny Money
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10.30.24- BRICS will not kill Dollar – War Will
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10.29.24- Government Can Fix
Recently RFK, Jr. gave his recipe but in general, it’s yet another request for government intervention in these fields (pun intended). Capping drug prices, prohibiting research grants from going to people with conflicts of interest, and reforming crop subsidies to incentivize healthier alternatives all sound nice. Eliminating SNAP (formerly food stamps) from being spent on high fructose corn syrup drinks ($9 billion annually) sounds good too. Read More |
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10.28.24- On The Wrong Track: This Is What An Imploding Economy Looks Like
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10.26.24- Do We Face a "Minsky Moment"?
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10.25.24- "Consumers Running Out Of Money": Former Target Exec Offers Dire Warning Ahead Of Christmas
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10.24.24- Economy Slowly Ebbing in Rising Tide of Inflation
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10.23.24- The Point of No Return(s)
The short answer is yes but the full explanation requires a financial history lesson. Read More |
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10.22.14- Two Weeks Before
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10.21.24- You Can’t Get Blood Out Of A Stone: U.S. Consumers Have Been Squeezed Bone Dry As The U.S. Economy Falters
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10.19.24- How Federal “Bans”, “Freezes”, and “Price Controls” Spread Economic Chaos
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10.18.24- Retail Bad News Adjusted into Great News Just in Time for the Election
In keeping with the analysis I did in recent Deeper Dives about how all the good news in economics these days appears to be adjusted into place, we have another clear example today that I'll share with all. Read More |
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10.17.24- Top 3 Predictions
What do you expect to happen in the 2024 election in this regard? Do you think the outcome will be disputed? Doug Casey: Election disputes are not unique to the current era. In the 1960 election, Chicago’s Mayor Daley stuffed ballot boxes, allowing Kennedy to win over Nixon in an extremely close election. Read More |
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10.16.24- The Biggest Credit Bubble in History
Many still insist ours is a capitalist system. Yet Mr. Duncan tells them to have another guess. He argues that the capitalist system went into the grave when the gold standard went into the grave. Read More |
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10.15.24- 10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches
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10.12.24- Prepare for False Flag
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10.11.24- BRICS working on own payment system – Russian finance minister
The BRICS countries are working to create their own international payments system as platforms which operate using Western infrastructure are becoming increasingly politicized, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told RT Arabic in an exclusive interview on Wednesday. The unprecedented sanctions campaign against Moscow spearheaded by the US has forced Russia and other members of the geopolitical bloc to look for ways to pursue trade despite the restrictions. Read More |
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10.10.24- Why I Want My Kids to Grow Up to be Union Bosses
My parents were pretty traditional so they hoped I would grow up to become a doctor. This is pretty typical; after all, parents just want their kids to be financially secure. I think about this a lot with my kids— both of whom are extremely young. I give a lot of thought to what their world will look like in 20 years given the seismic geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts taking place. Read More |
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10.09.24- Projected Supply Deficits For Key Energy Transition Metals
Supply, however, is not on track to keep up with this surging demand. Visual Capitalist partnered with Appian Capital Advisory to visualize what these supply gaps may look like by 2030 and the mining investment needed to balance these deficits. Read More |
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10.08.24- Can America Survive Global De-Dollarization?
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We have had the technology to create, control, and steer hurricanes for decades. “Project Cirrus is the first Official attempt to modify a hurricane. It was run by General Electric with the support of the US military. The official theory was that by changing the temperature outside the eye-wall of a hurricane, which they did by seeding the clouds with various compounds such as silver iodide, a decrease in strong winds will result. Read More |
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10.05.24- America’s “Quiet Coup”
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10.04.24- Mideast Tinderbox Set to Explode
But yesterday’s attack by Iran on Israel needs to be addressed because of its potentially massive implications. Iran launched a major missile attack against Israel, in apparent retaliation for recent Israeli attacks upon Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Details of the attack remain sketchy, and Israel is extremely secretive about whatever damage it sustained. Read More |
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10.03.24- America Is Falling Apart: Our National Priorities Are in Dire Need of Restructuring
A water main breaks every two minutes somewhere in the U.S., resulting in contaminated drinking supplies and boil water notices. One out of three bridges in the U.S. needs repair, endangering hundreds of millions of commuters. More than 42,000 bridges across the country, carrying about 167 million vehicles each day, are in disrepair. Read More |
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10.02.24- Raging Bulls Take Over the World
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Time Is Running Out: US Port Strike Could Begin Tuesday; Goldman Finds Highly Exposed Retailers
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09.30.24- Trump or Harris: Who’s Better for the Economy?
As we move into the final months of the 2024 presidential race, we’re starting to hear details from both the Trump and Harris campaigns. We’re learning more about how they plan to ensure a prosperous future for our country. Read More |
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09.28.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Greatest Coverup in History
Last night at dinner, my younger brother told me about an old Army Ranger buddy of his who did several tours in Afghanistan & Iraq, and all of the terrible things he did and saw for the U.S. government and its corporate cronies. Dawning awareness of the true horror of it caused him to go through a dark odyssey of alcohol and violence from which he may never have emerged had it not been for his exceptional mental toughness and discipline. Read More |
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09.27.24- China is Winning the EV War
According to Farley, “this is an existential threat.” Read More |
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09.26.24- Port Of New York-New Jersey Details Strike Operations Plan
The second-busiest U.S. ocean container port urged shippers to wind down cargo business less than a week before a strike deadline set by union dockworkers. Read More |
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09.25.24- This Is What Happened When Javier Milei Dumped Rent Controls
When Javier Milei was elected President of Argentina, one of his first orders was to scrap the country’s onerous rent controls. According to The Wall Street Journal, here’s what happened next. Read More |
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09.24.24- So the Economy Now Depends on Stocks Which Depend on Front-Running the Fed-And This Is Fine?
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09.21.24- SEC Slip-Up Hints at
I strongly recommend that a sentence be placed here (or somewhere [sic] in the first part of the speech) to reassure markets that you are not making the speech because you think there is an imminent crisis. Read More |
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09.20.24- Rate Cuts: Good News, Bad News
Why? Weren’t market bulls hoping for a pivot by the Fed for months? Weren’t they ready to pop the champagne cork? Read More |
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09.19.24- If The Markets Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get?
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09.18.24- Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn’t
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09.17.24- Grocery Rationing within Four Years
Immediately, of course, people will reply that she is not for price controls as such. It is only a limit on “gouging” (which she variously calls “gauging”) on grocery prices. As for rents, it’s only for larger-scale corporations with many units. Read More |
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09.16.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The federal government is coming for your Airline Points…
America’s infrastructure is not in great shape. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) grades America’s roads, bridges, and public transportation a C- overall. In fact 42% of US bridges are at least 50 years old, and nearly 7.5% are considered structurally deficient. 43% of public roads are rated as mediocre or poor. Read More |
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09.14.24- What You Don't Know
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09.13.24- "This New Engine Will End Electric Cars," says Toyota CEO About his Creation
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09.12.24- “Joy” is going to drive gold prices
After last night’s Presidential debate, the pop star publicly endorsed Kamala Harris because “she is a steady-handed, gifted leader” who fights for “LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body. . .” I really try to keep an open mind and understand other people’s opinions. But I personally have an extremely difficult time comprehending how someone thinks abortion and LGBTQ rights are the most important problems facing the country right now. Read More |
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09.11.24- “All I see is Red”
After just a handful of trading days, I’m here to report that this month is going much like many investors feared… Stocks are skidding lower at an alarming rate so far this month and traders are running for cover, buying up safety trades like utilities and consumer staples names as tech stocks and other popular plays continue to dive. Read More |
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09.10.24- DON’T Trust the Polls
But because politics can have such a large influence on markets, I can’t afford to ignore politics. So I’ll be focusing a lot on the November election in the next two months. Today we’ll be looking at the candidates’ platforms, along with polling results and methodologies. Read More |
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09.09.24- Preparing For A Crash? Warren Buffett Has Been Selling Off Hundreds Of Millions Of Shares In 2024
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09.07.24- Layoffs Jump To Highest Levels
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09.06.24- September
Here in Annapolis summer’s fever has broken. Deep azure vaults high overhead… and refrigerating wafts steal in from the Chesapeake Bay. All is peace. Read More |
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09.05.24- Inflation Leaves the Middle Class Too Poor to Shop at Dollar Stores
Dollar Tree’s latest earnings report offers a grim reflection on the state of the American economy. What we are witnessing is not just a minor fluctuation in retail performance, but a broader indictment of an economy that, under the stewardship of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, has manifestly lost its way. Read More |
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09.04.24- US Futures Slide, As Global Market Rout Extends For Second Day
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09.03.24- America's Real Estate Market Is on the Verge of Collapse
Today there is corporate media spin that the overall rate of inflation is “easing” for everything in the CPI basket of goods. Read More |
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09.02.24- Holiday Weekend Rant:
But first it’s an all-clear signal to a large class of less-than-fully brain-damaged Americans that it’s OK to quit being insane. As you know, this election is no longer a battle between the political left and right. It’s an epic struggle-session between the sane and the insane. Read More |
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08.31.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Could the Zionist State of Israel Disappear Within a Year?
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08.30.24- Dollar General Crashes Most On Record After Management Warns Of "Financially Constrained Core Customer"
Shares crashed to early 2018 levels. Dismal earnings sparked the record drop in DG's share price. Read More |
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08.29.24- Older Office Towers In Cities Face "Tsunami Of Trouble"
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08.28.24- Rickards Issues Avalanche Warning
It seems like a distant memory at this point, as the “buy the dip” theme is a deeply entrenched force in today’s market. Well, I’m afraid that this Wednesday, Aug. 28, they’re about to get a stark reminder. Only this time, it’ll be far worse. Today, I’ll show you why. First off, why are stocks going up? The simple answer is that the market’s in a bubble. There are a couple of things to consider…Read More |
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08.27.24- Decoding the Deep State
These were obviously not normal workplaces. To my amazement, they were mostly dark, empty and quiet, and the employees did not seem in the slightest bit busy doing anything at all. It was like a soulless blob. It was just so…mundane. It was all kind of spooky.Read More |
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08.26.24- The Fable of the Economic
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It’s a lesson that all investors have to learn at some point. Indeed, the only investors who actually make money from the markets are those who have learned that lesson and integrated its outcomes to their investing strategies. The lesson? Bears don’t make money. Read More |
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Yesterday we shouted harshly against them. We argued that price controls brought with them economic maladies far worse than their supposed cures. Specifically, that shortages are their inevitable fruit — their sour fruit. Read More |
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I remember when I first came down to Chile— the thing I found so remarkable was that it was a relatively conservative place, especially by Latin American standards. Back then the general tone was that you were pretty much left alone to do your thing. Read More |
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As President Biden told a gathering of reporters on Wednesday, “I said we’re gonna have a soft landing. We’re gonna have a soft landing. My policies are working.” He then commanded them to “start writing that way”, and we have no doubt their lackeys in the media will dutifully comply. Read More |
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We were warned that deficit spending would crowd out private capital, choke off innovation and new company formation; it will send the costs of U.S. borrowing skyrocketing higher, making the debt impossible to manage; force the U.S. dollar to be radically devalued against all other currencies, thereby devastating the U.S. economy; cause rampant inflation, spiking prices to levels not seen before; last, act as a drag on the overall economy. That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. Read More |
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The current housing bubble features three new players, all of whom are about to switch from “buy/hold” to “panic sell.” They are:
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Across industries—from luxury brands, airlines, and travel companies to fast-food chains, theme parks, and consumer goods companies—profit warnings and management teams have signaled that a consumer slowdown continues to gain momentum. Read More |
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– Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher (1864) Do you add glue to your pizza to keep the cheese from slipping off? Read More |
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Housing market update – Redfin posted data this past week that reflects the degree to which home sales activity is tanking. In June, 15% of home purchase contracts were canceled and 20% of listings nationwide had price cuts. Read More |
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08.07.24- Turbulence Ahead! Big Ups and Bigger Downs to Come.
One reader asked me after yesterday’s article on the historic market meltdown whether I thought the stock market would bounce back up to nearly make a full recovery. I responded as follows: There is still a lot of Fed money floating around, and plenty of people will do all they can to game markets up if they can. We'll have to see tomorrow, though, if their efforts hold. Things may get volatile and bounce around for awhile; but the interesting point is not so much whether stocks crash or not but the reason for the huge stock drops today being everyone suddenly concerned about recession and about the turn in labor, particularly bringing up the Sahm Rule. Read More |
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08.06.24- The Great Rotation Is Underway
As I’m sure you know, the Fed held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting. That was no surprise. But after years of tightening, the Fed is finally expected to pivot toward rate cuts, quite possibly in September. Read More |
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08.05.24- The Wheels Have Started To Come Off For The U.S. Economy, And The Worst
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08.03.24- Rock-Solid Gauge Says we are FULLY IN Recession, and Commercial Real Estate Has Plunged Deep into Financial Crisis
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08.02.24- Dollar Debasement Ad Infinitum
What you must understand is this. Debt – public and private – has grown to such massive extremes that it will never be repaid. But it will be settled one way or another. Through default or inflation, or a combination thereof. Moreover, the impending debt reconciliation will be legendary. Read More |
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08.01.24- The technocratic fallacy
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07.31.24- Revising away the Recession
In today’s news, John Rubino puts us on “recession watch,” confirming the things from his perspective that I’ve been saying about our slow slide into recession, despite how the latest “real” GDP report from the Biden administration turned out, which I think was a lot less than “real.” Read More |
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07.30.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Manufactured Uncertainty
The borders of some countries would change. The types of governments that ruled over them would change. In some cases, they would morph slowly into new entities; in others they would change suddenly. Read More
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07.29.24- Markets Would Be A "Smoldering Ruin" If Manipulation Ended
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07.27.24- Weekend Rant: Saving Our Democracy
However it happened this week, “Joe Biden” passed the blowtorch to a new generation and got himself gone from the political battlefield. Delegates to the coming Democratic National Convention (August 19) were duly notified of the selected replacement, Veep Kamala Harris, and ordered to line up behind her. Not a peep of disagreement was heard among them. Amazing that no one had a different idea. Thus, is democracy saved. Read More |
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07.26.24- The “Picks and Shovels” AI Investment is absurdly cheap. It won’t last.
Brannan was stunned when the shoppers pulled out solid gold nuggets. The gold, they said, had been found at Sutter’s Mill, about 35 miles northeast of Sacramento. Read More |
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07.25.24- Stock Market Chaos
Today was a big ugly one for the stock market. Stocks cratered, and, for once, it wasn’t because the Fed suddenly sounded like it wasn’t going to provide the high-sugar candy of lowered interest to juice up the market. This time it was due to economic fundamentals—the kind of fundamentals you see during a recession—terrible earnings that came in below expectations. Read More |
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07.24.24- You’re Soaking in It
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07.22.24- Globalist “Guru” Claims Trump’s Re-Election Will Mean ‘The Death of Global Order’
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07.20.24- Biden’s Getting Dumped
It stands every chance of being… historic. One candidate has already endured a shooting. That he lingers on may be considered a miracle of God. Merely three prior presidential candidates in United States history — Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Robert Francis Kennedy in 1968 and George Wallace in 1972 — were assassins’ targets ahead of the election. Read More |
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07.19.24- Is Today's Market Mania a Mega Meltdown?
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07.18.24- Gold Prices Forecast: 93% Chance of September Fed Rate Cut Boosts XAU/USD
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Wentworth says there are a number of reasons for the closures, not the least of which is America's failing economy and the resultant profit losses Walgreens is seeing. There are also too many Walgreens stores located too closely together coupled with a rampant theft problem at many locations. Read More |
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07.16.24- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Who is JD Vance? Trump’s VP Pick
He grew up in Middletown, Ohio with an absent father, and a mother who suffered from addiction most of her life, which is why he supports much of Donald Trump’s efforts to help the poor working class. Vance grew up seeing the real effects of globalization, and the transformation of the American economy from industrialization into an information economy. His experience drove him to do something with his life. So he entered the marines, went to Yale to study law, and then ran for Senate. Read More |
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07.15.24- How Corporate Bailouts
Government intervention, however, converts temporary money into permanent money through bailouts like the Troubled Asset Relief Program. They purchase loans that would have been defaulted on, preventing the evaporation of credit. Read More |
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07.13.24- Trump’s Return: Get Ready For Chaos To Be Unleashed And Blamed On You
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07.12.24- Why All Financial Markets Will Crash
It’s all about credit All transactions and all valuations are in credit. The key aspect of credit is that it is always matched by an obligation, or debt. Credit is extinguished when that obligation is discharged or defaulted upon. But in today’s financial systems, the repayment of debt is always in another form of credit, usually the transfer of ownership of a bank deposit, which is also credit. Read More |
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07.11.24- Vultures, Doomer Rumors
The venture vultures are squawking about the crash in commercial real-estate that has been accumulating with increasing speed as these hunched birds gather around the carcasses of dying corporations to pull scraps of meat off the bones, and they have a lot of time left to feed before the carnage finally ends: Read More |
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07.10.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democrats: Dogmatic Geniuses
Betting markets are finally agreeing with my prediction about Biden being replaced on the ticket, but I’m now wondering if I haven’t given Democrats far too much credit in assuming that their political wargames, or even that anything more than hushed musings at cocktail parties, actually included this bombshell scenario or its potential fallout. The presidential debate and its aftermath have certainly raised questions. Read More |
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07.09.24- It’s All MMT: The Fraud of
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07.08.24- “Glocalization”
The era of global integration and accord has ended and the era of global disintegration and discord is heating up. In historian Peter Turchin’s terminology, when everyone finds reasons to cooperate, the result is an era of accord; when everyone finds reasons not to cooperate, the result is an era of discord. Read More
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07.06.24- Is the Global Inflationary Depression
The note mentions the “broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic.” Read More |
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07.05.24- 10 Signs That Global War
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07.04.24- The Key ‘Lessons in Liberty’
As Jeremy S. Adams discussed in his book, “Lessons in Liberty,” this is especially true for remarkable Americans. In the book, Adams details the inspiring lives of extraordinary Americans and what we can learn from them today.Read More |
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07.03.24- The Fix is In For the Economy
Over the last week, I’ve noted that Uncle Sam is the economy now. What I mean by this, is that the U.S. government is spending so much money, and hiring so many people, that the economy is refusing to fall into recession despite weakness in the private sector. Read More |
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07.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Surprise, Surprise!
Just before the weekend, a political prairie fire raced across a nation buffaloed, blind-sided, and buried deeply in bullshit, and the little critters who inhabit the landscape are still running around with their fur smoldering. What a surprise that “Joe Biden,” the mentally-disabled pretend-president, fell apart in the debate spotlight for all to see, like Captain Queeg in his fateful witness chair, or William Jennings Bryan at the Scopes trial (1925), or the Wizard of Oz when little Toto drew the curtain back — a brutal revelation of stark truth about how things actually are. Read More |
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07.01.24-Crash Alert: An Unbalanced Market In Three Charts
This series points out the trends that will — eventually — be the warnings we should have heeded: Households are overinvested in stocks Read More |
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06.29.24- And Now, for Somthing Entirely Different: Zombie Biden Blows It Just this morning, they overturned the so-called Chevron deference that’s been in operation since the 1980s. Chevron handed the federal bureaucracy extensive authority to interpret statutes as it sees fit. It largely removed judicial oversight of the administrative state, which was a license for rampant bureaucratic abuse. Read More |
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06.28.24- Another Blow To The Housing Market
If you cannot think of buying a new house right now, it’s going to be harder in the future. If you are hoping to sell, it’s a great time to do so, but then you have a problem: You need to live somewhere. That’s why so many people today are frozen in place, unable to even consider moving for a better job because it means giving up a locked-in low rate for a sky-high new rate in the midst of a price explosion. Read More |
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06.27.24- The Emerging Commodities Supercycle
Marquette, Michigan is the hub of America’s iron industry. It’s where I grew up. My grandpa was the loadmaster at the town’s famous ore dock. He spent his entire career working around iron — from iron rails, to ore boats, to where he retired, in Marquette. Some 500 million tons of the metal have shipped out from the dock since it was first established. An additional 10 million tons of iron still flow out every year. Read More |
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06.26.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: U.S. Plays Russian Roulette
On Sunday, Ukraine launched an attack on Crimea with U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. The target was likely a military installation, quite possibly a Russian airbase. Read More |
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06.25.24- Dollar Takes a “Pounding”
It’s a big topic and not very well defined. It can refer to the dominance of financial activity over traditional business activity in goods and services. It can refer to market bubbles. It can refer to the use of financial instruments in non-traditional arenas such as warfare or political witch hunts. Read More |
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06.24.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Democracy Is Not the Same Thing
Democratic systems have been around for a long time. Ancient Greece comes to mind as the most prominent example of democracy in antiquity. While modern democracies are wildly different from the ones in ancient Athens, they are still susceptible to the pitfalls applicable to all democracies. Read More |
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06.22.24- Up!
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06.21.24- The Woke Movement Is Actually Corporate Enslavement – The Culture War
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06.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: : Hunter Biden is Guilty,
But Hunter Biden is such a dirtbag; gun charges don’t do him justice. No, this isn’t the same as getting Al Capone on tax evasion. It’s more like getting Lex Luthor on a jaywalking charge. Read More |
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06.13.24- Texas could become the new financial center of America with launch of the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE)
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06.12.24- If Wishes Were Fishes - This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive. Read More |
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06.11.24- Covid, Economy & Election: QTR On Peak Prosperity
Chris was one of the only people during the onset of Covid who was looking through the mainstream media’s narrative and was doing his own research. He has a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. Read More |
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06.10.24- Is There A Financial Crisis Bubbling Under The Surface?
According to the latest data from the FDIC, the U.S. banking system is sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses due to deteriorating bond portfolios. Read More |
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06.08.24- A Substantial Chance Of A Major Financial Collapse & The End Of Offshored Industrialization
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The over-7% mortgage rates seem to have become a fixture in the housing market. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.07% in the latest week, and has now been above 7% since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. During Rate-Cut-Mania, the average mortgage rate had dropped to 6.76% at the low point in early January. Read More |
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06.06.24- Banking Crisis, Stage Two
It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits. Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB. Read More |
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06.05.24- Is America Losing?
The End of History and the Last Man In 1992, while I was still an undergrad with a seemingly endless optimism in life in general and the American Dream in particular, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a much-discussed book entitled, The End of History and the Last Man. Read More |
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06.04.24- Is Hyperinflation a “Solution”?
The temptation to issue (via “printing” or borrowing new currency into existence by selling sovereign bonds) more currency becomes irresistible to politicians and central bankers alike as the means to mollify every constituency, from elites to the military to commoners dependent on state-funded bread and circuses. Read More |
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06.03.24- Global Cocoa Shortage Much Worse Than Previously Forecasted As Prices Surge
First reported by Bloomberg, ICCO forecasted demand will exceed production by 439,000 tons, driven mainly by higher cocoa grinding in consuming countries. This is the second estimate for the current October-September year and is much larger than the February forecast for a deficit of 374,000 tons. Read More |
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06.01.24- “Stocks Can’t Ignore the Issue
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05.31.24- McDonald's Top US Exec 'McFact-Checks' Social Media Buzz Around $18 Big Macs
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05.30.24- The World Has Accumulated A $315 Trillion Mountain Of Debt, And Global Events Will Soon Bring It Crashing Down
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05.29.24- Are Stocks about to Crash?
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05.28.24- Central Banks Are Destroying Our Economies
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05.27.24- Revealed: Major Economic
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05.25.24- They Want To Scare You With Myths Of "Unhampered Capitalism"
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05.23.24- The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For
It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent. Read More |
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05.23.24- The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For
It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent. Read More |
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05.22.24- Recession seems almost certain with 19 states in trouble already, expert warns
"There is a very high probability of a recession," Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told WealthTrack in a recent interview. Read More |
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05.21.24- The Global Warming Climate Change Mega-Trend is the Inflation Mega-Trend
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05.21.24- And Now, for Someting Entirely Differrent: U.S. Imperialism through the Lens of Mises’s Nation, State, and Economy
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05.20.24- The Global Warming Climate Change Mega-Trend is the Inflation Mega-Trend
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05.18.24- Markets' futile hopes for a rise in unemployment to lift stock values
On May 3rd, I wrote the following about how a recent tiny rise in unemployment that the Fed has been looking for before it starts lowering interest rates to rescue the economy from a slump could very well just be another head fake: Read More |
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05.16.24- Are We Enjoying The Scam Yet?
How do we measure such things? Read More |
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05.15.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Christian Worship of
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05.14.24- A “Restaurant Apocalypse” Is Starting To Sweep Across America, And That Is Really Bad News For The U.S. Economy
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For Tomorrow We Die…
As history has it, 8.47% is par. Meantime, 36% of Americans carry more credit card debt upon their shoulders than emergency savings in their pockets. Mainstream economists inform us it is not a symptom of economic distress. It is rather a symptom of economic vigor. Read More |
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05.11.24- The Machinery of Fascism
If we go back a decade before the war, you find a completely different situation. Read any writings from polite society from 1932–1940 or so and you find a consensus that freedom and democracy, along with Enlightenment-style liberalism of the 18th century, were completely doomed. Read More |
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05.10.24- Man, Economy, and Financial Markets
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05.09.24- Pessimism About The U.S. Economy Is Going To Have An Absolutely Massive Impact On The Outcome Of The Election In November
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05.08.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Rational Thinking...
Over the last number of centuries intellectual inquiry has moved away from theology and revelation. Academics refer to this change in thinking as the Enlightenment or the Age of Reason. We are firmly in the logical reasoning mode of thinking now. Supposedly, scientific inquiry trumps all other modes of thinking. Read More |
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05.07.24- Unification Of CBDCs? Global Banks Are Telling Us The End Of The Dollar System
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05.04.24- Stock Market Cliff Dive
Such a torrent of horrible economic news hit today, particularly for the Fed, that I cannot even begin to cover it all in a weekday editorial, so a good part of it will have to wait for my weekend Deeper Dive, and even that may not be able to cover it all; but I don’t want to miss a drop. Read More |
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05.03.24- The Lunacy of Taxing Unrealized Gains
You may as well just set the money on fire. Read More |
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05.02.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Teams Are Set for World War III
Last week, Michael E. Mann spoke at the EcoHeath Alliance: Green Planet One Health Benefit 2024. Just to recap who each of these players are: Read More |
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Mortgage rates continue to trudge higher from the abandoned Rate-Cut-Mania low. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.13% in the latest week, the highest since early December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today, as the 10-year Treasury yield has re-surged amid the Fed’s vigorous backpedaling on its December rate-cut visionsafter the presumed-vanquished inflation raised its ugly head again. Read More |
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03.18.24- A House of Cards on Stilts
Let’s look at these factors and make a forecast of stock market index levels based on these and other inputs. Trends in stock prices over the past year have largely been a function of market expectations about Fed rate cuts and market euphoria over strong economic data, including low unemployment rates. Read More |
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03.16.24- David Stockman: We've Hit A Fiscal & Monetary Dead End
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03.15.24- Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise and What Happens Next
It recently exceeded its previous all-time high of around $69,000, which was set in November 2021. What are your thoughts? Doug Casey: Right now, the world runs on the dollar standard. Almost all international trade is done with the US dollar. Still, it’s increasingly apparent to everybody worldwide that the US dollar is the unbacked liability of a bankrupt government. Read More |
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03.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What Does the Presence of the National Guard Around the Country Signal?
Governor Newsom of California (never to be trusted) says he’s deploying troops along the Cali-Mex border to stop the smuggling of fentanyl into the country. Governor DeSantis has sent troops to maintain order in Miami during spring break. Read More |
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03.13.24- The Biggest 2024 Election
As of now, subject to change, that election is likely to feature a rematch of the Biden-Trump election of 2020. Their policies could not be more different. Biden is a rubber stamp for every progressive policy from open borders, climate alarmism and support for abortion to expanding the war in Ukraine. Read More |
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03.12.24- Bitcoin Sets Another All-Time High as Crypto Sees Record Inflows
The original cryptocurrency reached an all-time peak of almost $72,968 on Tuesday, before paring the increase. It was the third record in five days. A record $2.7 billion flowed into crypto assets last week, according to a report from CoinShares international Ltd., with the bulk of that going to Bitcoin. Both the token and a gauge of the largest 100 coins are up roughly 70% this year. Read More |
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03.11.24- Who Gets the Credit?
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03.09.24- Lessons for the Future Republic
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03.08.24- Bud Light Boycott Cost
Yeah, “constrained” by $1.4 BILLION. More: In North America, organic revenue, seen as the best measure of operating performance, plunged $1.4 billion last year as beer sales by volume tumbled in the region, primarily due to a decline in Bud Light sales in the United States. Beer makes up the lion’s share of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s revenue. Read More |
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03.07.24- Has The Banking Crisis Of 2024
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03.06.24- Income Needed To Afford A Home In The US Has Soared By 80% Since 2020
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03.05.24- A Macro Shift at Hand
The years mentioned above immediately preceded the onset of roaring new secular bull markets in commodities coincident with the bursting of bubbles in crowded megacap growth stocks. The analogous scenario exists today. Read More |
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03.04.24- Banking on the next US financial crisis
Doomsaying, as Jonah complained to God, is a game that a doomsayer cannot win. This applies in spades to predicting a financial crisis. If proven wrong, the doomsayer is discredited. If proven right, he may be blamed for helping to precipitate the crisis by undermining public confidence. Read More |
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03.02.24- Biden’s Debt Dilemma Uncovered: Economic Plane Crash Ahead?
You would hear endless claims of “record economic growth” and quarter after quarter of “historic GDP.” Read More |
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03.01.24- When Complex Systems Collide
Their behavior cannot be reduced to their component parts. It’s as if they take on a life of their own. Complexity theory has four main pillars. The first is the diversity of actors. You’ve got to account for all of the actors in the marketplace. When you consider the size of global markets, that number is obviously vast. Read More |
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02.29.24- Has Bidenomics Set the Stage for Permanently Higher Inflation?
In fact, three years into President Biden’s first term Americans are still spending a greater percentage of their income on food than at any point in the last 30 years: Read More |
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02.28.24- Traders Wanted. Losers Welcome.
But if this adage is accurate, shouldn’t most investors buy a one-way ticket to their local looney bin? Perhaps this is an insensitive comment. Let me clarify: I don’t really believe allinvestors are nuts. Even if they were, I’m pretty sure most of the country’s mental asylums shuttered decades ago. Since no more padded rooms are available, retail investors will just have to retreat back to their basement offices to read 10-Qs, download analyst reports, or whatever else they might be doing to pass the time while their stocks sink deeper into the abyss. Read More |
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02.27.24- Threat Of Strike Looms Large Over East, Gulf Coast Ports
The labor contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire at the end of September. The ILA represents some 70,000 dockworkers, while the USMX represents employers at 36 coastal ports — including three of the U.S.’s five busiest ports: the Port of New York and New Jersey, the Port of Savannah, Georgia, and the Port of Houston. Read More |
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02.26.24- Nvidia, the WTF Chart of the Year. Tesla also Had WTF Charts of the Year
Nvidia is special because the dollars are suddenly so huge – a hair over $2 trillion at the open on Friday, and just a little below $2 trillion at the close. Over the past 12 months, market cap has spiked by $1.46 trillion, including the biggest-ever-for-any-stock one-day spike of $277 billion on Thursday, on exceeding revenue expectations by $2 billion. Read More |
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02.24.24- Weekend Rant:
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02.23.24- Why Banks Want the System to Crash, Dollar to Plummet and For You to be Desperate
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02.22.24- Worms in the Woodwork
Here’s a summary of recent critical developments: On the economy as a whole, headline numbers continue to look good. The Q42023 GDP was 3.3% (annualized). That put full-year 2023 GDP at 2.5% over 2022, a substantial increase in a year when many forecasters predicted a recession. Read More |
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02.21.24- It's All Falling apart So Quickly I Can't Keep up!
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02.20.24- This Is A Tale Of Two Americas, And Those At The Bottom Of The Economic Food Chain Are Being Hit Extremely Hard
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02.19.24- All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
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02.17.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The American Dream Is Dead,
In addition, GDP can’t keep up with the pace that debt keeps piling up. Expressed officially as the ratio of Public Debt to GDP, that sits at a record 120% – and it’s still rising. Read More |
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02.16.24- GDP is a Poor Measure
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What’s your take on this? Doug Casey: To sum it up in one word, it’s insane. In two words, it’s criminally insane. Read More |
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02.14.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: 2024 - The Year America Ceases to Exist
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02.13.24- Commercial Real Estate Implodes Across the News
In my weekend Deeper Dive (“Banks Breaking Bad”) I wrote about how the US commercial real-estate (CRE) crisis is spreading like cancer to banks around the world. I woke up from that today to find Monday’s news is flooded with stories about the global spread of the CRE crisis. Consider some of the following: Fitch Ratings, one of the major credit-rating agencies, noted the following problems in Asia-Pacific banks: Read More |
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02.12.24- Will Commercial Real Estate Trigger The Next Crisis?
Persistent inflationary pressures that threaten to undermine the rate-cut narrative that financial markets have adopted are present below the surface. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to pump the monetary laughing gas machine, anticipating further rate cuts and monetary easing to support multiple expansions. However, in this wave of fervent optimism, there are dark clouds looming on the horizon: another wave of regional bank troubles added to the burgeoning crisis in the commercial real estate market. Read More |
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02.10.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Geopolitics Of World War III
On January 2, 2024, Foreign Minister Israel Katz proclaimed “We’re in the middle of World War III against Iran [led] radical Islam, whose tentacles are already in Europe.” He claimed that Israel, in engaging in a war against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, was defending “everyone.” Although his rhetoric may seem overblown to many in the United States and Europe, it should not be dismissed out of hand. Sometimes, regional conflicts, such as the Japanese conquest of Manchuria of 1931-32 or the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39, foreshadow dangers that are more geographically extensive and militarily intense. Read More |
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02.09.24- Does the Economy Need Migrants?
This is a standard argument of the left, one they use to import millions of unskilled migrants into the US and Europe. With immigration becoming a top voter concern in both America and Europe -- to the point it's driving millions of voters to populist candidates -0- the left-wing media is laying out the gaslight, trying to convince people that we need millions of unvetted quasi-educated foreigners to avert a demographic crisis. Read More |
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02.08.24- The Commercial Real Estate Crisis Of 2024 Is Going To Be A Doozy…
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02.07.24- 50% Stock Correction;
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02.06.24- Global Currency Shift as the Dollar
The U.S. dollar is losing ground to gold Read More |
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02.05.24- Easy Money Creates Hard Times
The damage was incremental at first, but the perverse incentives and distortions of easy money — zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), credit available without limits to those who are more equal than others — accelerated the institutionalization of these toxic dynamics throughout the economy and society. Read More |
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02.03.24- The Great Growth Hoax
It’s exasperating because these claims do not fit with human experience. Last we heard from the Census Bureau, real income is down, and no one doubts it. Everyone, or at least most average people, has felt strong downgrades in living standards over these last four years. Read More |
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02.02.24- Wall Street’s Narrative vs. Reality
So runs an ancient Wall Street wheeze. January 2024 has ended. How did January 2024 go? The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened January at 38,033. It closed January at 38,355. Read More |
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02.01.24- “Tax Relief Act” Exposed: Something Ominous Lurks Inside…
No matter how the corporate media spins it, he just can’t seem to lead the country out of this persistent economic trend. The rate of price inflation is easing, but core inflation remains at a pace not seen since the early 1990s. Read More |
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01.31.24- "Theory Of Reflexivity"
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.” Read More |
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01.30.24- Could Texas Survive
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01.29.24- Emergency PSA to All Texas Citizens
We are NOT Voting or Protesting Our Way Out of This Mess. The Only Way Forward is SECESSION, plain and simple. If you are going to show your hand to the Federals, I Suggest you Show it in a meaningful way. Read More |
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01.27.24- Gold Forecast & U.S. Stocks Next 'Kill Zone'
First, a look at the position of the Gold cycles. As per my last article from mid-December of last year, Gold was in a correction phase, one which was expected to last into early this year. This was due to the configuration of our 72-day time cycle, which is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and which is shown on the chart below: Read More |
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01.26.24- “Blistering!”
“The U.S. economy grew at [a] blistering 3.3% pace in Q4 while inflation pulled back.” CNBC cites the latest economic data, issuing this morning from the Department of Commerce. Read More
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01.25.24- Financial Collapse Imminent,
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01.24.24- It Is A Bloodbath
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01.23.24- The Dark Ages For US Housing And Manufacturing
Peter explains in his recent podcast:
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01.22.24- Capitalism—A New Idea
Classical economics recognises capitalism as the most effective means by which an economy can thrive. Certainly, in 1776, Adam Smith made one of the best cases for capitalism in his book, An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (known more commonly as The Wealth of Nations). But the term “capitalism” actually was first used to deride the ideology, by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, in The Communist Manifesto, in 1848. Read More |
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01.20.24- December home sales slump to close out worst year since 1995
Full-year sales for 2023 came in at 4.09 million units, the lowest tally since 1995. Read More |
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01.19.24- Weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since September 2022
Initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled 187,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since Sept. 24, 2022, the Labor Department reportedThursday. The total marked a 16,000 decline from the previous week and came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 208,000. Read More |
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01.18.24- What To Do As "US Empire" Crumbles And Global Shipping Goes Back To A 19th Century World Of Piracy
Markets started 2024 as wildly optimistic --and wildly wrong-- about rates as they did 2023: is there something structurally wrong with economics, or just them? After all, yesterday’s US retail sales were much stronger than expected, industrial production better than consensus, and while the Fed’s Beige Book said the labor market was cooling, with increased consumer “price sensitivity”, businesses expectations were positive and/or improved. In other words, doing nothing is a realistic option for the Fed. Read More |
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01.17.24- "Markets Are Overlooking How Much Worse This Can Get, How Inflationary
Points of order today. First, we need to underline the major disconnect between market pricing for aggressive 2024 Fed rate cuts -- including new hedges that the Fed cuts by 50bp in March-- and how the actual economy is still performing. Second, we have to ponder what drove the Fed to make the dovish statements in late 2023 that drove, and still drive, that kind of wild pricing. Third, we have to deal with the Fed, and others, walking it all back just weeks later. Read More |
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01.16.24- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: DEI, Airplane Crashes,
Flipping the page, medical schools will graduate bevvies of DEI doctors as the decade unwinds. What if you need open-heart surgery? Cancer treatment? Won’t you need a sound diagnosis for starters? Will the most capable physicians attend you? Or will you have to settle for the right color, right gender, right sexual orientation, pick-your-pronouns person in a white lab coat? Read More |
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01.15.24- So... About Bitcoin
Everyone on Earth wishes they’d loaded up on Bitcoin back when it was, like, $10. The fact that most investors have chosen not to ride that particular rollercoaster can be attributed to two things. First, cryptocurrencies were complicated to buy and store safely, which put them beyond the reach of most non-techies (myself included). Second, the use case for cryptos wasn’t yet clear. In other words, most people didn’t - and still don’t - know what they are and why they exist. Read More |
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01.13.24- Weekend Rant: Banks Tank, Cooling Inflation Heats up, and Global Warming
Every major bank reporting for Q4 2023 tripped over the threshold for one reason or another today—profits down, penalties up, etc.—helping stock investors find the exit. Recession risks got noted as higher than thought as the yield curve begins to un-invert. While normally that is a sign of impending recession, there are, of course, those in the news today claiming, “Not this time” in order to punch the pivot narrative again today. This time is special! Read More |
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01.12.24- 4 in 10 Companies Anticipate
To find out how many companies believe layoffs are likely next year, in December, ResumeBuilder.com surveyed 906 business leaders at organizations with over 10 employees. Read More |
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01.11.24- This Stock’s Grounded!
Simply put, Boeing isn’t the company it used to be. By now, I’m sure you’ve heard about the Jan. 6 near crash of a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines, after the fuselage door blew off the plane. That caused decompression and the use of emergency oxygen. Read More |
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01.10.24- What's the Source of the Astounding 50% Boost in Corporate Profits?
One of the most extraordinary economic marvels of the past decade is the astounding 50% leap in corporate profits, from $2.4 trillion (pre-tax) pre-pandemic lockdown to $3.6 trillion (pre-tax) in the years since the lockdown ended. Read More |
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01.09.24- The “Disbelief Phase”
Yes, we’re just five trading days into 2024. But it appears Mr. Market’s New Year’s resolution was to pulverize the bulls into a fine powder and leave just about everyone wondering how everything changed so quickly. December trading finished with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posting their ninth winning week in a row as stocks rode a wave of frantic buying off the October lows. But from the opening bell of the first trading day of 2024 (which frankly feels like a lifetime ago), the market started to get a bit tricky. Read More |
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01.08.24- The Great Taking Exposes The Financial End Game
What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds, and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history. Read More |
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01.06.24- Has The Global Food Inflation Crisis
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01.05.24- The Year of the 493?
The 493? Here we refer to the 493 stocks of the S&P 500 — the 493 stocks not named Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon or Meta. These are the seven wagon-pullers that have hauled the stock market to present extremes. The S&P 500 galloped 24% last year under their behemoth influence. The remaining 493 lagged far behind them. Read More |
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01.04.24- The Houthi Butterfly Flaps Its Wings
One such happiness is eating simple pasta and tomato sauce. Sure, my mother’s lasagna is second to none, but that’s more of a holiday dish. (Indeed, I rolled home after Christmas dinner. It’s too bad Pam and Micah had to push me uphill!) Read More |
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01.03.24- 2024: Here’s What Happens
All I can say is strap in, because 2024 is setting up to be even more chaotic than 2023. That’s right, 2024 will be more tumultuous and shocking than 2023. Let’s first address the election. Read More |
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01.02.24- World's Largest Lithium Reserve Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea
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01.01.24- This Widely Followed Metric Is Flirting With Danger. Does It Mean a Stock Market Crash Is Imminent in 2024?
Over long periods, the stock market is an unquestioned moneymaker. When compared to other asset classes, such as bonds, oil, gold, and housing, the stock market has delivered a considerably higher annualized rate of return over the long term. Read More |
It’s probably unexpected for me to say this, but Arnold Schwarzenegger perfectly summed up one of the biggest reasons America cannot solve its problems right now.
We wanted Elon Musk to succeed. We were pulling for his full triumph. He’s blasted countless satellites into orbit. He put EVs on the road. He saved free speech on social media. If anyone could cut $2 trillion in annual waste, he’s the guy.
That is all you need now that trade volumes just fell off the edge of the world where "thar be dragons"--Chinese dragons.
We all understand human error: someone was tired and misread the situation, or they were impatient. We also understand incompetence: the individual simply didn't have the knowledge and experience needed to make the right decisions and take corrective action.
There’s a marvelous scene in the 1984 movie, This Is Spinal Tap, in which guitarist Nigel Tufnel points out to an interviewer that he chooses Marshall amplifiers because, unlike most amplifiers (with volume knobs that go from one to ten), “These go to eleven… It’s one louder, innit?” The interviewer tries to explain that they’re only numbers, stamped into plastic knobs and don’t represent actual decibels of sound in any way. 
Can Trump really bring U.S. manufacturing back? His bold use of tariffs is already sparking trillion-dollar investments – but rebuilding industry at home comes with massive costs and tradeoffs. We’re already seeing the short-term pain – here’s what comes next… 
The bull is dead.
Several leading oncologists have warned that a devastating “turbo cancer” surge is about to “explode” among people who received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”
Around the close of Hong Kong trading hours, Beijing retaliated against President Trump's tariffs by hiking levies on U.S. goods to 125%, up from the prior 84%. In a notable shift, the Chinese Communist Party announced it would "no longer respond" to any further tariff increases from Washington. 
The U.S. economy and financial markets rest on a house of cards. The faith in a New Era is exemplified by a recent advertisement from Robertson Stephens, which asks “Do you really believe that technology can make hundreds of years of economic rules obsolete? So do we.” Well, count us out. One of the most devastatingly accurate of these economic rules is this: anytime the term “New Era” becomes widely accepted, get the hell out of the stock market. 
President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping import tariffs—what he dubbed “Liberation Day”—has caused the expected ruckus in global financial markets. And rightly so. This isn’t some light policy tweak. It’s a full-blown trade regime reset.
One thing I like about Argentina. They cook with salt. That’s it.’
The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have triggered considerable excitement. Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts have all been whipsawed by the market’s swift up and down movements. No one can seem to stay ahead of President Trump’s ‘make it up as you go’ tariff games.
US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. 
Tesla shares are now down more than 50% from their all-time high. And as I write this, shares are down about 4% on the day.
As a nation, we have literally been in the process of committing financial suicide for decades. Sadly, some people have responded to the new administration’s efforts to get debt levels under control 
There’s an old curse that supposedly comes from an Eastern country (it could have actually come from a comedy writer, for all I know). The curse is:
President Donald Trump specialized in shattering conventional wisdom and challenging the status quo on his road to the White House in 2016. To this day, our president believes Americans are getting ripped off by unfair trade practices where country after country has gotten comfortable taking advantage of the United States due to our unparalleled generosity and wealth. So, he’s focused like a laser beam on fair trade and leveling the playing field so our manufacturing workers can compete with foreign competitors and prosper. President Trump has declared that by implementing targeted tariffs on foreign countries that hurt American workers, “our country will be extremely liquid and rich again.” 
Recession signals are becoming hard to ignore.
We all know the ancient Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times!
Not long ago, I had lunch with someone who currently has over $100 billion (yes, billion with a “b”) outstanding on capital projects.
US equity futures continue their relentless grind lower, as they trade just off session lows, down more than 1% as the "Trump Dump" selloff continues amid growing concerns about the health of the US economy. As JPM notes this morning "today there is a global de-risking but let’s see if Int’l Eqys outperform on the move lower or if the US can see a relief rally"; so far the answer is a resounding no with both European and Asian stocks tumbling, after Trump declined to rule out a recession due to his policies, pointing to a transition period for the economy. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 1.2% to 5,705 following the worst week for the benchmark index since September, while Nasdaq 100 futures slide 1.1% with all Mag7 stocks sharply lower to start the week. 
Trump’s economic team continues to signal that hard times are coming.
On March 4th, 2025, the Trump administration enacted new import tariffs on goods entering the United States. This briefing summarizes the considerations and implications for cold chain operations in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and the wider global trading system. 
Throughout recent history, every American President has campaigned on a slogan of change.
In 2012, Puerto Rico was in the depths of a nearly decade-long recession and looming debt crisis.
All too often, when we talk economics and finance, we neglect the human side of the equation. GDP is about more than percentages – it’s about prosperity and confidence. Unemployment isn’t just a number, it’s real people who’ve lost their primary source of income. With that firmly in mind, today, we explore the saddest recession indicator…
No little boy or girl says they want to be a stiff at a government agency when they grow up.
It's not clear how this resolves
As investors, it is important to acknowledge our weaknesses.
Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris. 
Today, Friday, the market saw some selling pressure. Why would that be? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. Though “market experts,” to be sure knew why there were more sellers than buyers. Actually, there is always as many sellers as buyers, as it takes two to make a trade at any price. But the buyers were offering less today, than earlier in the week. Maybe baby needs a new pair of shoes, so Wall Street had to suffer? Life just isn’t fair. 
What in the hell are these GOP fiscal frauds thinking?
International Man:
All of a sudden, sending European ground troops into Ukraine has become a very hot topic. In fact, the British are openly discussing the possibility of doing this quite soon. Of course the Russians have already warned that if the British send ground troops into Ukraine, military targets inside the UK will become legitimate targets.
For many years alternative economists and “conspiracy theorists” have argued that, according to the evidence, there has been an organized criminal cabal operating a long running agenda to exploit and eventually destroy western culture. We have suggested that much of this agenda was being funded with our own tax dollar while using government institutions and NGOs as vehicles for social engineering. 
As we all know, the US is headed for a fiscal crisis. Like having a ‘heart attack,’ says Ray Dalio.
One of the central pillars of the U.S. economy is melting down right in front of our eyes. We spend gigantic mountains of borrowed money to maintain the largest and most bloated bureaucracy in the entire history of the planet. More than 3 million workers are employed directly by the federal government, more than 7 million workers are employed by private institutions that rely on government funding or government contracts, and more than 20 million workers are employed by state and local governments. 
My ten 
In 2008, the U.S. government entered into a strange relationship with one of America’s largest companies.
US equity futures are flat, with yields and the dollar modestly higher ahead of this morning's US CPI reports (
Canadians are among the world’s calmest, most polite, and gracious people. They are also, in my experience, peaceful, honest and modest. You never see them angry – except for now.
International Man:
"Controlling the narrative" to justify destabilizing asymmetries won't change the consequences. 
International Man: 
It’s game on for the trade wars.
Markets move pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss ‘em.
It was early spring in the year 1171 AD when Byzantine Emperor Manuel I Komnenos decided to go to war against his much smaller ally– Venice. And the historical record shows that it was a really bad idea.
Do they know something that we do not? All of a sudden, hedge funds are betting billions of dollars that the stock market is going to crash. If they are wrong, they will lose a ton of money, but if they are correct they will make absolutely enormous profits. So why are they feeling so confident that a stock market collapse is in our future? Without a doubt, the real economy has been moving 
The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of Day One executive orders over the course of January 20 and 21 immediately after the inauguration. More executive orders are in the pipeline. 
Ah, the 1980s. I feel bad for people who didn’t grow up during that decade.
For years, I’ve been attempting to explain that everything is better in China than in the United States. The gap is so massive that if an American raised on cartoonish propaganda about their birthplace as ‘the greatest country on earth’ visits China, it can trigger a serious personal crisis. It simply does not compute. Unsurprisingly, Americans who have never been to China struggle to process this reality and often revert to mindless claims like “China is a third-world country” or “Chinese people don’t have any freedom”. 
There is only one topic on traders' minds this morning that threatens to upend the multi-year AI bull trend driving chip stocks to record highs: the (extremely) cheaper Chinese DeepSeek response to OpenAI's ChatGPT, as noted in an overnight piece titled 
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) created a panic this week when it announced a pause in “study sections.” Study sections, says Vinay Prasad, are “groups of mediocre scientists who decide which grants are funded.”
International Man: Let’s begin by defining our terms. How would you define a speculator?
The US government is aghast that there is a new grouping of nations that seeks to form an alternative to the US trade bloc and trade settlement system that uses the dollar. These nations have been driven to this extreme, time-consuming, and difficult project by clueless US leaders who have imposed sanctions on Russian assets (literally stealing them) and have denied Russia and other nations from using the SWIFT messaging system for trade settlement. 
On Saturday morning, I awoke to very strange news.
The essayist and military strategist, Aurelien, has written a paper 
Duquesne Family Office Chairman Stanley Druckenmiller stated Monday that "animal spirits" have returned to the market, fueled by "giddy" CEOs anticipating Trump's return to the White House. Speaking to CNBC, the billionaire investor argued that the U.S. economy is shifting from "the most anti-business administration" in history to the most business-friendly administration. 
Have you ever gone to a movie everybody raved about and thought, ‘Meh. I don’t get all the hype?’
If we study the problems outside the force-field of mythological beliefs, we find that there are no systemic solutions, there are only partial, local solutions. 
My big economic prediction for 2025 is here!
The first full week of 2025 is coming to an end. And the final days of President Biden’s time in office cannot come soon enough. After four years of mega deficits and mega meddling, the economy and stock market have been crudely distorted. They’re both bloated to the max.
Earlier this week, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was officially certified by lawmakers in a joint session of Congress.
$200 billion can buy a lot of Bitcoin.
Trump will begin his first 100 days with an emphasis on his economic plans.
Ten days ago I published a 
During Donald Trump’s first term, U.S. tariffs on China increased from 3% in 2016 to 19% by the end of 2020.
As we prepare to enter a new year, there's a revived optimism on Wall Street.
Inflation – we’re all tired of hearing about it, plenty tired of thinking about it, too. But we have to consider exactly how big a difference inflation makes in our future cost of living.
In October of 2024, Russia hosted the annual BRICS Summit in the city of Kazan with the intent to show unity among developing nations and general eastern interests. The Kremlin, a target of severe NATO sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been effective in solidifying economic guarantees from BRICS partners and circumventing western economic controls. 
On July 9, 1997, Apple Computer (as the company was then known) was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.
On June 1, 1381, thousands of English rural laborers descended on the capital of London, the first martial event in what would come to be known as the Peasants Revolt. Over 650 years later, a somewhat less bloody rebellion showed itself in the same city, these latter-day peasants facing similar fiscal provocation to their 14th-century forerunners. Tens of thousands of small farmers descended on London to protest the latest in a series of government policies seemingly designed to destroy the farming industry in Britain, at least in its current form. 
Nearly half of America is jubilant with thoughts that their political savior has arrived and nearly another half of America is gnawing, spitting and gnashing their teeth in violent, spasmodic angst in their certainty that a new Hitler has risen in the country to make their lives a living hell, while the rest of us are simply watching and waiting to see what the next shoe to drop will be and just how much of our liberty will be trashed and violated under President Trump, no matter how much the economy may or may not improve. 
Trump has a man for fighting debt, but Trump also has an iron-clad record of creating debt and lots of it everywhere he goes.
The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is among the most powerful of the Mexican gangs that could offer real opposition to any military attempt to interfere in the narcotics trade
Something remarkable happened following the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the USA. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) topped the 44,000-point barrier for the first time ever. Then, several weeks later, it briefly eclipsed 45,000.
There's been a lot of talk about "
As the year 1980 came to a close, Americans had just experienced the worst annual inflation in decades.
The market melt-up is in full force as we enjoy the Thanksgiving trading week.
Americans have high expectations of what it means to be financially successful, but many of them do not expect to meet their desired level of success, according to a survey by financial planning company Empower.
As we float in the trough following the 
Discover how the Department of Government Efficiency’s bold plans could reshape your financial future. With huge cuts to government spending, will inflation subside? Will prices finally fall? Or will Bidenomics prices stick around even longer?
Yesterday, my colleague wrote that not everything is 
Melt-up season is upon us and stocks are posting big moves… in both directions!
The stock market will crash as a result of policy the last few years. The left will use it as a clarion call to blame President Trump.
The quote “When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will,” is frequently attributed to 19th century writer and free market economist Frederic Bastiat. While these specific words, strung together with this specific syntax, cannot be found in Bastiat published catalogue, their sentiments are of the type he would have likely endorsed.
What are your overall thoughts on Trump’s second term?
News articles today speak of gross statistical manipulation, soaring bond yields due to rising inflation, and a possibly fizzling stock rally.
There are times when it pays to be contrarian.
NOTE TO READERS: “Global Credit Collapse Is Deflationary” was originally published as an exclusive for 
2024 has demonstrated why
Hey! Rub-a-dub-dub. Trump won!
It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer. It will then be declared by year’s end. The following year it could become backdated with data revisions that take us to 2022. At that point, it will become obvious to people that we have a major problem. Money velocity will freeze up and banks will start failing.
Back in August, 
According to some commentators, to counter inflation interest rates in the US must increase to a level that effectively restrains the economy. It is held that this increase in interest rates does not have to cause a recession if Fed’s policy makers could orchestrate a “soft landing.” The economy is portrayed as a spaceship that occasionally deviates from a path of “stable” economic growth and “stable” prices. All that is required to fix the problem is for the central bank to give a suitable “push” to the economy (i.e., the spaceship) to bring it back to the right growth path. 
There is a little here that is extremely important for everyone and a lot here that is even more important for a privileged few.
If there’s one thing to understand about what’s going on in the political economy today, it is the fundamentals of debt. You do not need to be a bean counter or get too deep into the weeds to get a handle on things.
An often-repeated saying among Arabs, widely believed to be the panacea to our political ills, goes like this: “The right person in the right position” by which we mean that if we insert the most qualified person for a specific job, many of the problems affected would be solved. This is a strong phrase since it seems to be irrefutable. After all, should we otherwise put the “wrong” person in any position? Conversely, should we not create the right positions for the right people? 
The incumbent government's job-one in an election year is to make all news read like we've gone in the right direction, but where are we really headed?
For many years, I’ve described a period that I envisaged to be in the future, in which much of what was considered “normal” would change dramatically.
In 1848, a 29-year-old Sacramento shop owner named Samuel Brannan was tending the cash register at his store when a pair of shoppers asked if they could pay him in gold.
And it's all the economy's fault. Well, that and the fault of everyone who ignored basic truths about the economy in order to price stocks far above all rational sense.
For well over a year, there has been somewhat of a puzzle: How financial conditions, as tracked by broad measures such as the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, have been getting looser since March 2023, and are now at the loosest level since November 2021, even though the Fed has hiked policy rates to 5.5% at the top end and 
Yuval Harari is best known as a globalist “philosopher” or “guru” closely tied to the World Economic Forum. He is infamous for his Ted Talks and summit speeches declaring the coming abandonment of personal individualism and independence while elevating AI as the harbinger of a new technological religion. He joyously preaches about the fusion of AI technology with the human body to give certain elitist groups the power of “gods.” His notions of the supposedly infinite abilities of algorithms to influence culture and politics are so overblown they enter into the realm of children’s fantasy. 
How will future historians come at the 2024 presidential election?
Over the next couple of years, pharmacy chain Walgreens will 
Modern monetary theory (MMT) is 
Geopolitical/financial risks are proliferating and becoming more difficult to predict or hedge for a very basic reason:
There was an oblique message buried in a New York Times 
Are we on the verge of an apocalyptic global war in which billions of people could die? Very few people anticipated that World War I would erupt, but it happened anyway. And very few people anticipated that World War II would erupt, but it happened anyway. All throughout human history, there have been wars. Ever since the very beginning, it has just been a matter of time before major powers collide. Unfortunately, even though very alarming warning signals are flashing all around us, most of the population of the western world seems absolutely clueless about what is really going on out there. 
Historic leaders often share something important in common. They are not born great. Their greatness is a result of a lifetime of difficulty and consequential choices.
The Fed just confirmed my thesis.
During a bull market, imbalances build up that seem scary but are not, in the moment, a deal-breaker. It’s only with hindsight that we look back and say, “Oh yeah, that’s where it started to change.” 
There’s been so much happening over the past 24 hours that it’s hard to keep up. The Supreme Court has been releasing several key rulings that will have a major impact on American politics.
The Biden administration and its fawning PR industry, also known as the mainstream media, have over the past year been desperate to explain to ordinary deplorables Americans why the US economy is ackchyually doing "so much better" than most peasants give the 81-year-old's handlers credit for (see "
Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We continue to believe we are on the cusp of a rare macroeconomic shift, like in 1972 and 2000, where a monumental investment setup exists on both the long and short sides of the market.
If a financial implosion does occur in 2024, as seems increasingly possible, it could actually be a blessing in disguise.
If you were to do nothing but listen to President Biden and the corporate media 
At some point, systems flip from being complicated, which is a challenge to manage, to being complex. Complexity is more than a challenge because it opens the door to all kinds of unexpected crashes and events.
It’s quite possible that economic conditions are 
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
There’s an increasing abundance of skittishness surrounding the future of East and Gulf Coast ports. 
As I write these words, the death toll in the Gaza massacre (not “war”) has surpassed 28,000, of whom some 70% are women and children. As I write these words, nothing has evidently changed in Jewish attitudes, of which roughly 80% of American Jews and 95% of Israeli Jews are satisfied with the brutal assault.
In 234 years of American history, no president has been criminally prosecuted. The entire world knows that the felony and civil charges against Trump are fabricated and concocted. It is obvious that the Democrat Party uses law as a weapon against political opponents just as Stalin did. Democrats are the worst and most dangerous enemy the Constitution and American citizens have ever had. 
The latest inflation figures in the United States look relatively positive, with a slight decline in annualized inflation rates. However, only three items of the CPI components declined in December. 
Do immigrants solve labor shortages?
Over the last several years we have seen commercial real estate values plummet dramatically all over the United States. One of the reasons why this is happening is because millions of Americans started working from home during the pandemic, and many of them never returned to the office once the pandemic subsided. Another reason why this is happening is because there has been a mass exodus of businesses from our core urban areas. Conditions have rapidly deteriorated in many of our largest cities, and it is exceedingly difficult to run a profitable business in the midst of an environment of constant theft and violence. Ultimately, it is very easy to understand why commercial real estate values have crashed, and they will almost certainly go even lower. 
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving precious metals and the overall economy. Stories include: Global de-dollarization as a major driver of gold prices, gold demand statistics for 2023, and how silver is becoming more industrial by the day.
We have yet to reach a full reckoning of the consequences of the era of easy money, but it’s abundantly clear that it ruined us.
For several days, ever since the supposedly amazing GDP report from quarter four 2023, we’ve been blasted by the media about how great the economy is doing.
“As goes January, so goes the year.”
As it stands right now, it appears like Biden’s entire first term will have been plagued by varying degrees of 
I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.”
The severity of the migrant crisis may be new to those who do not live on a bordering state. Yet Texas has been grappling with this issue for years, resulting in countless calls for a secession from the United States or “
Attention! All True Texas Citizens!
With the action seen over the past month, Gold has been locked inside an expected correction phase, with the U.S. stock market still inside a larger 'vacuum' period - one which will take us into the next 'kill zone' date for that market. 
CNBC:
Should any of us be surprised that the news industry is being hit by a massive wave of layoffs? Survey after survey has shown that the American people have lost faith in the mainstream media, and millions of us have decided to turn to other sources for news and information. Mainstream news outlets have been bleeding viewers and readers for years, and now many of the biggest names in the news industry are losing staggering amounts of money. It was only a matter of time before we witnessed large scale layoffs, and now they are here. 
The president 
Capitalism, whether praised or derided, is an economic system and ideology based on private ownership of the means of production and operation for profit.
ETFs just made it easy to buy. Should we? 
He introduces the book on p. 1 in uncompromising terms: 
The latest United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization data shows global food prices have just recorded the biggest annual decline since 2015. This is terrific news for emerging market countries whose governments have been battling high food inflation with mounting risks of social instability. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of globally traded food commodities, averaged around 118.51 at the end of 2023, down 10% from the previous year. 
Is this the year of the 493?
Now that my parents are only half a mile away, long-forgotten memories have flooded back. Thanks to my mother’s unimpeachable cooking skills, I’m again enjoying all the trappings of my youth.
In 2023, we saw the outbreak of a banking crisis (that isn’t over), a new Middle East war break out in Gaza, two states ban Trump from the ballot in the 2024 elections and the mainstreaming of AI, among other things.
The U.S. Department of Energy has made its 