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01.18.17- Banks Are Getting Battered
Tyler Durden

US financials stocks are down 3% from Friday's exuberant post-earnings opening highs. That is the biggest drawdown since the election with BofA, JPMorgan, and Goldman leading the downturn (down almost 5% from Friday's opening highs)...

Sell-the-earnings-news... Read More

01.17.17- Russian Foreign Ministry: "Obama Still Has A Few Days Left To Destroy The World"
Tyler Durden

There is a reason Vladimir Putin and the Russian top political echelon has been avoiding the media following the onslaught of allegations lobbed at the Kremlin, and Trump: as AP writes, careful not to hurt chances for a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, President Putin and other Russian officials "have deferred questions about their plans for future contacts with Trump and any agenda for those talks until he takes office on Friday." In short, the "Kremlin is counting the days to his inauguration and venting its anger at Barack Obama's outgoing administration, no holds barred." Read More

01.16.17- Trump Dump Coming To The Stock Market
Dave Kranzler

The stock market shot up like a Roman candle for idiotic reasons after the election. The candle may have reached its apex when the Dow hit 19,999.67 last week.   As I stated in my Short Seller’s Journal, I was “stunned that bank traders were unable to push the index up to the holy grail number of 20,000. Of course, in and of itself, the “Dow 20k” watch was moronic.  Thirty stocks do not an economic system make.  Sorry Fox, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN etc.

I also stated in my Short Seller’s Journal, in the issue two weeks ago,  and long before Zerohedge posted the comment from some guy named DeMark who predicted the Dow would never hit 20k, that 20k might not happen.  In fact, I titled the issue, “Is Dow 20,000 Now Out Of Reach?” Read More

01.14.17- Weekend Rant: Trump's Ignorance
Hugo Salinas Price

The president elect of the US, Mr. Trump, does not know what he is doing when he proposes protectionist measures to encourage the reindustrialization of the US and bring home again, the American industry that emigrated to foreign lands.

The US lost their industry as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreements, which were signed (under pressure) by representatives of the allied countries and of the countries conquered by the US in World War II. Those Agreements established the world's monetary system for the post-war world, after the victory of the Allies, which was already in sight in 1944. Read More

01.13.17- Where’s the Outrage?
Roger Barris

Blind to Crony Socialism

Whenever a failed CEO is fired with a cushy payoff, the outrage is swift and voluminous.  The liberal press usually misrepresents this as a hypocritical “jobs for the boys” program within the capitalist class.  In reality, the payoffs are almost always contractual obligations, often for deferred compensation, that the companies vigorously try to avoid.  Believe me.  I’ve been on both sides of this kind of dispute (except, of course, for the “failed” bit).

People are usually struck by the seeming injustice of CEOs running companies into the ground and then getting paid obscene amounts in the form of “golden parachute” type good-bye presents. Read More

01.12.17- Shaun Chamberlin: Surviving The Aftermath Of The Market Economy
Adam Taggart

What we'll need to persevere through collapse

Historian and economist David Fleming undertook the writing of Lean Logic a grand vision that projected out the likely path of collapse for our currently unsustainable way of life, as well as the key success factors society will need to cultivate to come out the other side. Sadly, he died in 2010 with the 350,000-word manuscript still in draft form. Read More

01.11.17- The Best Way for Economists to Stay Relevant Today Is to Go Out of Business
Daily Bell Staff

How Economists Can Stay Relevant Under Trump … Economists are going to have to approach things a bit differently if they want to stay relevant in the Trump age. Political economy research is going to become more important. Some humility wouldn’t hurt. And they should look someplace other than the federal government to test their ideas.  This is what I took away from this past weekend’s American Economic Association’s annual conference, where I heard a panel with five Nobel-winning economists on the topic of “Where is the world economy headed?” – Bloomberg Read More

01.10.17- The Economic Risk of Ignoring Arithmetic
John Hussman

When we observe the greatest follies of our predecessors, the episodes of speculative madness that come most immediately to mind are the pre-crash bubble peaks of 1929, 2000, and to a lesser extent, 2007. Unfortunately, we are in the midst of yet another episode of equivalent speculative madness, but one that will only be recognized in hindsight, and in the recollections of our children. They too are likely to take pride in a feeling of superior knowledge, forgetting the same lessons, and eventually creating another bubble and collapse of their own. The herd mentality is human nature. As in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, when the S&P 500 collapsed by 50% and 55% respectively, we’ll likely see that herd mentality expressed on the downside soon enough. That also is human nature. Read More

01.09.17- It’s A Retail Apocalypse: Sears, Macy’s And The Limited Are All Closing Stores
Michael Snyder

It has only been two weeks since Christmas, and already we are witnessing a stunning bloodbath of store closings.  Macy’s shocked the retail industry by announcing that they will be closing about 100 stores.  The downward spiral of Sears hit another landmark when it was announced that another 150 Sears and Kmart stores would be shutting down.  And we have just learned that The Limited is immediately closing all stores nationwide.  If the U.S. economy is doing just fine, then why are we experiencing such a retail apocalypse?  All over America, vast shopping malls that were once buzzing with eager consumers now resemble mausoleums.  We have never seen anything quite like this in our entire history, and nobody is sure what is going to happen next. Read More

01.07.17- The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die In 2017
Brandon Smmith

Yes, the narrative of the “new normal” has been around for so long now that many people have simply grown used to it. The assumption is that the fiscal “new normal” has become the fiscal “normal,” and though the fundamentals continue to strain under the weight of poor global demand and historic debt levitated by extraneous fiat stimulus, the masses feel far less fear than is warranted. Hey, why should they? We’ve managed around eight years skating on thin ice, why shouldn’t we expect eight more years of the same?

The banking elites have done the job they set out to do, which was to drive the economy to the very edge of the financial cliff, and then keep it suspended there until the general public became comfortable living next door to the abyss. Read More

01.06.17- How to Make America Great Again with Other People’s Money
Dmitry Orlov

A lot of the sharper-minded commentators have recently started pointing out a problem with Donald Trump’s plan to “make America great again”: lack of funds. The US is bankrupt: sinking ever-further into unrepayable debt, unable to achieve a rate of economic growth that could ever catch up with its growing debt burden. It is in the midst of a giant financial bubble that is propped up by various scams and rackets, from car loans whose term exceeds the useful lifetime of the car, to retirement fund shortfalls caused by effectively negative interest rates, to educational debt that condemns ever more young people to a lifetime of indentured servitude, to the medical racket which is now eating up over 20% of the economy. Read More

01.05.16- A Trade Deal Trump Cannot Improve
Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE – People can believe whatever they want. But sooner or later, real life intervenes. We just like to see the looks on their faces when it does. By that measure, 2017 may be our best year ever. Rarely have so many people believed so many impossible things.

Automaker General Motors (GM) used to have an assembly plant in East Baltimore. Then one Friday in May 2005, at 4:30 in the afternoon, the last Chevrolet Astro van rolled off the assembly line at the Broening Highway General Motors Plant.

Some eyes misted up. Some were angry. Some laughed. The van hadn’t been updated in 20 years. It was widely seen as a safety hazard and voted “worst in its class” by the experts. Read More

01.04.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Differrent: Treason of the Highest Order-Why Is Obama Still In Office?
Dave Hodges

President Obama has placed every American at grave risk this morning with the virtual decommissioning of our aircraft carriers, by placing them all in port at the same time. This is treason and it is national suicide.

Before we can understand the gravity of the siutation, it might be valuable to examine a prior event in our history that can shed some light on what Obama has just done. Read More

01.02.17- A Biased 2017 Forecast (Part Two)
Jim Quinn

In Part One of this article I discussed the failure of our brains to think rationally due to our biases and the relentless propaganda flogged by our Deep State ruling class. Viewing the future through the looking glass of the Fourth Turning keeps you focused on the three catalysts which will drive all events in 2017 and beyond. I’ve addressed my 2017 Debt forecast in Part One. Now I will make some guesses about what might happen in 2017 related to Civic Decay and Global Disorder.

Civic Decay Forecast

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow Read More

01.02.17- A Biased 2017 Forecast (Part One)
Jim Quinn

“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.” – Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang,The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project. This was a completely new direction from his financial crisis books. I wasn’t sure whether it would keep my interest, but the story of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and their research into the psychology of judgement and decision making. Read More

12.31.16- Weekend Rant: Hamburger Hill
Captain Hook

The Battle of Hamburger Hill, later made into a movie directed by John Irvin, refers to the epic, but completely unnecessary, Vietnam War engagement between the US (and South Vietnamese) and North, aligned with China (a proxy war), that saw huge casualties suffered on both sides of the equation. It was a bloodbath. The boys were ground into hamburger. All for Wall Street greed. All so unnecessary. (i.e. if JFK was allowed to live.)

Of course some may view such things as completely necessary, because we humans are competitive creatures. What's more, it's not as if we have progressed in any way over the last half-century. In fact, it could be argued we've regressed. But it's all so much more civilized these days - no? We don't have wars anymore - we have guised crises, interventions, and peacekeeping missions that must be supported in the name of democracy - all the while America (and friends) still exercise colonial rule. Read More

12.30.16- Fake News, Mass Hysteria,
and Induced Insanity

Charles Hugh-Smith

The "fake news" is that we've never been healthier, healthcare costs are under control and our economy has fully "recovered."

We've heard a lot about "fake news" from those whose master narratives are threatened by alternative sources and analyses. We've heard less about the master narratives being threatened: the fomenting of mass hysteria, which turns the populace into an easily manipulated and managed herd, and induced insanity, a longer-term marketing-based narrative that causes the populace to ignore the self-destructive consequences of accepting the fad/ ideology/ mindset being pushed as "good" and "normal." Read More

12.29.16- It's The Dollar, Stupid!
Paul Brodsky

We think the markets have it fundamentally wrong. US investors are anticipating a cyclical shift towards economic expansion via new tax incentives, business de-regulation and Keynesian government spending that promise to increase output, demand and asset prices. However, there is a far more influential driver of future asset prices – a structural shift that has begun but has yet to be acknowledged by economic and political authorities, and, judging by financial asset markets, by most investors. We expect weak equity markets and a strong treasury market beginning in 2017. Read More

12.28.16- A Deeper Understanding Of Technocracy
Jon Rappoport

Technocracy is the basic agenda and plan for ruling global society from above, so we need to understand it from several angles.

Consider a group of enthusiastic forward-looking engineers in the early 20th century. They work for a company that has a contract to manufacture a locomotive.

This is a highly complex piece of equipment.

On one level, workers are required to make the components to spec. Then they must put them all together. These tasks are formidable. Read More

12.27.16- U.S. and China on Collision Course
James Rickards

China’s capital and currency markets are on a collision course with the U.S., and by extension, the entire world. Economists are fond of saying if something can’t go on forever, it won’t. That truism applies to China.

Huge profits will be made by those who see this China train wreck coming and act in time.

The idea of economic stress in China sounds strange to most ears. China has come from the chaos of the Cultural Revolution to the world’s largest economy measured on a purchasing power parity basis in just 35 years. Even using nominal GDP, my preferred metric, it is the world’s second largest economy. Read More

12.26.16- Why the Massive Expansion of "Money" Hasn't Trickled Down to "The Rest of Us"
Birch Gold Group

Over the past 5 years, companies have dumped over $2.1 trillion into a popular stock-boosting strategy that does nothing to help their businesses, but instead puts the economy in danger. The short-term payoff for using this strategy is huge, and it could be largely responsible for the market rally that we’ve witnessed over the past few years. But, recent news reveals that corporations could be taking it too far — and we all could pay the consequences.

Imagine if there were a way for all companies to bolster the price of their own stock and make themselves look more profitable, regardless of how well they’re actually doing. It would make it impossible to know how safe the market really is, right? Read More

12.24.16- Dollar Euphoria And Gold Price
Adam Hamilton

The US dollar’s recent stampede higher has been amazing, as evidenced by the venerable US Dollar Index.  Launched way back in 1973, the USDX is the dominant and most-popular market gauge of how the US dollar is faring.  Since Election Day 2016 alone, the USDX has soared 5.1% higher in merely six weeks!  That isn’t much behind the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index’s 5.9% post-election rally.

But the post-election USDX surge is still far more extreme.  The world’s handful of reserve currencies are decisively commanded by the US dollar.  Because of the vast amounts of dollars flooding the globe, it has great inertia.  Thus like an oil supertanker, the dollar’s moves tend to be gradual and unfold over a long time.  The USDX usually moves with all the sound and fury of a tortoise, leisurely meandering around.  Read More

12.23.16- The Silver Tsunami
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

When that position becomes overrun, or when one of the large commercial shorts (JPM) decides to cover and run, there is no possible way that the masses will not suddenly awake to news of this market moving. 
A Silver Tsunami Is Coming…

At this point in the cycle, the silver market should be relatively easy for the average person to enter.

Prices are beginning to move back toward natural supply and demand equilibrium, as large disruptions are occurring between the positioning of dominant futures speculators that have kept futures prices entrapped for nearly 6 years. Read More

12.22.16- Why the Massive Expansion of "Money" Hasn't Trickled Down to "The Rest of Us"
Charles Hugh Smith

if you create and distribute money only in the apex of the wealth/power pyramid, it can only benefit the few rather than the many.

There are numerous debates about money: what it is, how we measure it, and so on. In recognition of these debates, I'm referring to "money" in quotes to designate that I'm using the Federal Reserve's measure of money stock (MZM).

Nowadays, "money" is often credit. We buy stuff not with currency/ cash, but with credit extended by lenders. The government pays for its programs with borrowed money as well, by selling sovereign bonds and spending the proceeds. Read More

12.21.16- IPOs had Worst Year since 2003.
And the Dow at 20,000?

Wolf Richter

Stock indices are frolicking in record territory. The S&P 500 is up almost 11% this year, though the gains came after the election. The Dow has been titillating the entire world, day after day, with the prospect of finally, finally hitting 20,000 after being just a hair shy of it for two weeks. So it would seem that the IPO market would be hot. But for IPOs, 2016 has turned out to be a fabulously terrible year.

That makes two years in a row. Last year at this time, I wrote that the IPO market in 2015 had been the worst since the Financial Crisis. I quoted Sam Kendall, UBS global head of equity capital markets: Read More

12.20.16- A New Dow High – Anyone Concerned?
Gary Christenson

While the global bond markets have begun to correct their 35 year bull market, the major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow, NASDAQ, Russell and S&P, have rallied nicely.

Official U. S. national debt is approximately $20 trillion as of December 2016, and has approximately doubled every 8 years at a 9% compounded rate for over a century.

Examine this 27 year graph of official national debt and the S&P 500 index, both on log scales.  They increase together.  Debt increases, more dollars surge through the economy and those dollars are plugged into stocks, bonds, and higher consumer prices. Read More

12.19.16- The Real Reason Why America Has Been Given A Reprieve
Michael Snyder

This is one of the most important articles that I have written in a long time.  The strange events of the past year and a half have befuddled and mystified many, and in this article I am going to explain why America has been given a temporary reprieve.  If you go back to June 2015, I warned my readers that major financial problems were imminent, and sure enough in August 2015 we witnessed the greatest financial shaking that we had seen in seven years.  I remember getting emails from my readers applauding me for absolutely nailing that prediction, but we were all concerned about what was coming next in September.  If you will recall, there was more buzz about September 2015 than any other month that I can ever recall.  That was the month of the last blood moon, the end of the Shemitah year and the Pope’s visit to the United States among other things. Read More

12.17.16- Major Economic Warning Sign: The Euro Is Heading For Parity With The U.S. Dollar
Michael Snyder

The collapse of the euro is accelerating, and it looks like we could be staring a major European financial crisis right in the face early in 2017.  On Thursday, the EUR/USD fell all the way to $1.0366 at one point before rebounding slightly.  That represents the lowest that the euro has been relative to the U.S. dollar since January 2003.  Ever since 2011, I have been relentlessly warning that the euro is heading for parity with the U.S. dollar.  When the EUR/USD was trading at about $1.40 that must have seemed like crazy talk, but I never wavered.  I just kept warning people that the euro was going to weaken greatly relative to the U.S. dollar.  Here is one example from March 2015: “How many times have I said it?  The euro is heading to all-time lows.  It is going to go to parity with the U.S. dollar, and then it is eventually going to go below parity.” Read More

12.16.16- The Reign of Bubble Finance
Bill Bonner

Financialization Genius

When we left you last time, we were in the middle of describing the crooked hind leg of crony capitalism. We used billionaire businessman Wilbur Ross – Donald Trump’s pick for the Department of Commerce – for illustration purposes. Not that there is anything wrong with Mr. Ross. He plays the game, just as everyone else does. He’s particularly good at it.

The steel magnate in his command center. He is one of a number of particularly alert entrepreneurs who were able to make the most of the bubble era ushered in by Nixon’s adoption of the confetti money system. And he even has a crystal ball! Obviously, that explains a lot. Read More

12.15.16- Trump Tweets about China,
US Businesses Freak out

Wolf Richter

China is important to US companies. Qualcomm gets 57% of its revenues in China, Micron 43%, Apple 23%, Jabil 21%, Boeing 13%, Wynn Resorts 60%, according to Bloomberg’s math.

In the last earnings report, GM specifically pointed at its “strong performance in China,” the largest auto market in the world. In the first three quarters this year, GM sold 2.7 million vehicles in China, 38% of GM’s global sales, and up 9% year-over-year. GM’s global vehicle sales rose a mere 0.4%. Without the boom in China, GM’s total vehicle sales would have declined. Read More

12.14.16- Historic Market Blow-Up Is Brewing
Dave Kranzler

I was chatting with a good friend who works at a pension fund. He said that pensions are historically overweighted in stocks right now. But it looks like the latest push higher in the stock market is coming from hedge funds, who apparently missed a large portion of the “Trump rally.”   We determined that the best reason to invest in stocks for both pension and hedge funds is “to avoid looking like an idiot.”

That’s it – that’s the “fundamental” justification for investing in stocks right now is because everyone else is and if your portfolio on Dec 31 is underweighted in stocks you’ll look like an idiot. Read More

12.13.16- The Best Way to Tell
Where the Market Is Headed

Michael Covel

Some of the world’s best traders are also some of the best poker players.

I’m talking about iconic names like David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, Carl Icahn of Icahn Partners and Cliff Asness of AQR Capital.

They’re all poker masters… and billionaire traders.

And it’s easy to understand why.

Trading requires almost the exact same skills as poker.

And becoming an expert at each is easier than you think… Read More

12.12.16- Euro Devaluation Accelerates –
Millions Of Europeans Wishing They’d Bought Gold

John Rubino

ECB Chairman Mario Draghi’s announcement of bigger and better QE this morning should have surprised no one. The fact is that the eurozone is coming apart at the seams and the only tool left to delay the inevitable is easier money. As the following chart illustrates, the euro has been declining since 2008, with the descent accelerating lately.

And more is coming. The only way for Italy, Greece and possibly France to keep it together is for their currency to plunge relative to those of their trading partners, thus making it easier to sell domestically-produced stuff abroad. Read More

12.10.16- Why Europe must end in tears
Alasdair Macleod

The latest consequence of economic mismanagement in Europe was the failed attempt at constitutional reform in Italy this week.

The Italian people have had enough of their government’s economic failure, and is refusing to give it more power.

The EU and the euro project have been an economic disaster for all participants, including Germany, which will eventually be forced to write off the hard-earned savings she has lent to other Eurozone members. We know, with absolute certainty, that the euro will self-destruct and the Eurozone will disintegrate. Read More

12.09.16- Top Hedge Funds Predict
How It All Will End

Tyler Durden

In early 2009, roughly at the time when this blog was launched which coincided with the start of the greatest monetary experiment of all time, we warned that there are two ways it will end: either in hyperinflation, or a deflationary supernova, the failure of currency and, eventually, barter. Now, almost 8 years later, some of the world's top hedge funds are in agreement, and they are worried.

As the WSJ reports, these prominent hedge fund managers join an increasingly bigger and louder chorus which says central bank bond buying programs that are pumping trillions of dollars into global markets will end badly. Read More

12.08.16- Mega Trends
Larry LaBorde

I have been watching the parade march by and after months of contemplation I have the following comments concerning the next 2 to 3 years.

1.US Presidential election:

The election itself was not as important as the fact that a large percentage of the population has come to realize that we are on a course that cannot continue. Middle American decided that things must change. Dissatisfaction with the status quo is really what the 2016 election was all about. Read More

12.07.16- The Smartest Money in the Markets Just Broadcasted the Next Big Trade
Graham Summers

The “smart money” isn’t buying this rally.

Corporate insiders know more about their companies than anyone else. And they are not buying this rally… at all. In fact, they’re using it to dump shares.

A total of 3,500 insiders at Russell 3000 companies have unloaded their own stock in the last three weeks, while 467 purchased shares, according to data from The Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based provider of insider trading data and news. Source: WSJ Read More

12.06.16- A Major Banking Collapse Looks Imminent
Nick Giambruno

This surprises almost everyone…

You don’t own the money in your bank account.

Once you deposit money at the bank, it’s no longer your property. It’s the bank’s.

What you own is a promise from the bank to repay you. It’s an unsecured liability. Technically, you’re a creditor of the bank. And that means a bank bail-in would probably burn you.

A bail-in is when a bank recapitalizes itself by tapping its creditors. That includes all of its average Joe depositors. Italians are about to find this out the hard way. Read More

12.05. 16- Global Financial Markets Plunged Into Chaos As Italy Overwhelmingly Votes ‘No’
Michael Snyder

Italian voters have embraced the global trend of rejecting the established world order, but the “no” vote on Sunday has plunged global financial markets into a state of utter chaos.  The euro has already fallen to a 20 month low, Italian government bonds are poised for a tremendous crash, and futures markets are indicating that both U.S. and European stock markets will be way down when they open on Monday.  It is being projected that Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum on constitutional reforms will be defeated by about 20 percentage points when all the votes have been counted, and Renzi has already announced that he plans to resign as a result.  Read More

12.03.16- Italian Banks on the Brink
Jim Rickards

[Ed. Note: Jim Rickards latest New York Times best seller, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis (claim your free copy here) goes beyond the election and prepares you for the next crisis]

There’s an old saying: “What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.” The meaning is obvious — if you insist on something for others, you have to be prepared to hold yourself to the same standard.

A version of that is playing out in Europe today. And right now the strongest signal is not coming from Germany — it’s coming from Italy. Italian banks are in deep financial distress (as were banks in Cyprus and Greece from 2011 to 2015). This involves the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sienna (BMP), the world’s oldest bank still in operation, founded in 1472. Read More

12.01.16- After a War on Cash, can the War on Gold be far behind?
Jim Rickards

The global elites are using negative interest rates and inflation to make your money disappear. The whole idea of the war on cash is to force savers into digital bank accounts so their money can be taken from them in the form of negative interest rates.

One way to avoid negative interest rates is to go to physical cash.. They can’t impose negative interest rates on cash.

In order to prevent people from using that option, the elites have launched a war on cash, as recent events have borne out. The war on cash is old news, but it is escalating rapidly… Read More

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