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05.24.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Juan O’ Savin: Big Update – It’s All About the Senate
Juan O Savin tells Sean Stone that the Biden Regime wants Russia to nuke Ukraine, in order to destroy all of the evidence of the endless corruption and money-laundering that the crime families in our government have been running through there. Read More |
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05.23.22- Central Bankers' Narratives Are Falling Apart
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05.21.22- Weekend Rant: Massive State Economic Intervention Has Led to This Point
First of all, there are postcovid externalities: breaks in production chains, including semiconductors; logistical locaps due to changes in labor movements; and excessive monetary and fiscal stimulation of economic agents, from inefficient companies to private households, which have created outstripping demand relative to limited output and also forced up prices. Read More |
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05.20.22- Cycles are driven by credit
Fisher’s was a well-argued case by the father of modern monetarism. But any further research by mainstream economists was brushed aside by the Keynesian revolution which simply argued that recessions, depressions, or slumps were evidence of the failings of free markets requiring state intervention. Read More |
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05.19.22- The Fed is Still Spiking the Inflation Punch Bowl, but the Party is in Recess Anyway
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05.18.22- Don't Listen To What The Fed Says; Look At What The Fed Is Doing
Despite a big rally in the stocks on Friday, the stock market finished its sixth consecutive week in the red. It’s the longest streak of consecutive losses since June of 2011.Read More |
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05.17.22- The Acceleration Phase
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05.16.22- The Failure Of Central Banking: Politics
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05.14.22- Powell Sees More "Pain" Ahead, Admits 'Soft Landing' Is 'Out Of Fed's Control'
Speaking on MarketPlace Radio this evening, Powell said the central bank has both the tools and resolve to bring down rapid inflation — though he acknowledged that the path to lower price increases could be a painful one. Read More |
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05.13.22- This Conventional Wisdom Is Toxic Today – Here’s Why
That’s because bonds are generally considered a conservative investment vehicle. Corporate bond-holders get paid before shareholders, and even in the worst-case scenario of a bankruptcy, bond owners are likely to recoup some of their investment, while shareholders are usually wiped out. Government bonds, well, they’re backed by the “full faith and credit” of an entire nation! Government defaults on bond payments are so unusual they immediately become front-page news worldwide. In his masterwork The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham famously recommended the following allocation to savers: Read More |
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05.12.22- Politicized Money and
To the contrary, our astonishment with the open mismanagement of global currencies as a whole, and the world reserve currency (i.e., the USD in particular), grows daily. Read More |
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05.11.22- Do You Still Ask “When?”
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05.10.22- The Fed Has Already Lost The Inflation Fight
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05.09.22- Why the Fed will fail to fight inflation until the recession beats it down
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05.07.22- The Fed’s “Soft Landing” 
Looks like the latest statements from the FOMC meeting have taken their initial toll on the markets. The Fed decided to raise rates only 50 basis points, and initiated plans to “significantly reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.” More rate hikes are on the way as 2022 continues, and starting June 1st, the QE tightening is likely to get even stronger:
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05.06.22- The Biggest Rate Hike in 22 Years
Some market analysts were even predicting a 75-basis point hike. But today, Jay Powell reassured markets by claiming that he’s not considering such a move. The stock market soared after Powell’s reassuring announcement. The Dow gained over 900 points today, with most of the gains coming after the Fed’s announcement. The S&P gained 124 points, while the Nasdaq gained 401. Read More |
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05.05.22- The Fed Is Creating
After the Fed chairman announced the Fed would not “tighten” money but would combat inflation through higher interest rates, we wrote that this was a “green light for inflation to rise.” Read More |
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05.04.22- "It's Not The Economy; It's The Central Banks, Stupid!
Central Banks have one real job: avoid inflation! It’s here, and the consequences will be devasting as conventional rate-hiking wisdom is used to fight a wholly exogenous supply side shock. There may be alternatives, but “credibility” is everything to Central Banks. Read More |
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05.03.22- Rampant Dollar About to Undo the Fed’s Best Plans
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05.02.22- The Coming of Corporate Collectivism
Quite so. Interestingly, many, and perhaps most people today, lack an understanding as to the system under which they are ruled. Read More |
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04.30.22- U.S. Weekend Rant: Officials Have a Bizarre, Confusing Strategy to Fight Inflation
Making matters worse, U.S. economic growth slowed 1.4% according to the most recent official report. Even the bulliest-of-bulls in the mainstream media, CNBC, couldn’t put a positive spin on this…
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04.29.22- Building a Better Banking System
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04.28.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Uncle Sam's Bio-Weapons Extravaganza
Answer– That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? Unfortunately, there’s no simple “yes or no” answer. It’s more complicated than that. Question– Can you explain what you mean? Answer– Sure, but some people might find it a bit confusing. Read More |
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04.27.22- Analyst Reveals the Number One Reason to Buy Gold Now
Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, says that the economy is heading towards something they label a “Quad 4,” a state of emergency warranting government intervention. A Quad 4 means disappointing growth and inflation, year after year. McCullough expects growth and inflation to slow, causing a period of major earnings losses in the stock market. Read More |
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04.26.22- The Quick And Dirty On Inflation
Despite the fact that inflation has been running hot for over a year, the mainstream pundits, government officials and central bankers can’t seem to nail down what’s going on. First, they said printing trillions wouldn’t cause inflation. Then they called inflation transitory. They said it was the pandemic. They pointed their fingers at supply chains and “excess demand.” Now they’re blaming Putin. Read More |
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04.25.22- Dark Forces, Plain Speak, Brighter Gold & The Fed’s Sick End Game
As usual, the end game will boil down to yield curve controls and more money printing, which means more currency debasement and a central bank system that secretly (and historically) favors inflation over truth and markets over Main Street. Read More |
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04.23.22- Can the Federal Reserve Stop the Looming American Famine?
In response, the Federal Reserve went on a money printing binge, reflected in the official chart below: Read More |
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04.22.22- Value destruction
It’s all about interest rates. Rising interest rates undermine financial asset values and falling rates increase them. From 1981 until March 2020, the trend has been for the inflation of prices to subside and interest rates to decline with them. And following Paul Volcker’s interest rate hikes at that time, this is when the era of economic financialisation commenced. Read More |
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04.21.22- Exposing The "Inflationary Hell" That's About To Break Loose
When that becomes the reality, however, inflationary hell will break out all over the place. And the Fed’s decades-long experiment in egregious, inflationary money-pumping will splatter ignominiously all over the Eccles Building. Read More |
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04.20.22- Forget About a Soft Landing,
Hot Economy, Rising Inflation In Hot Economy, Rising Inflation the WSJ notes The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This. That link is not paywalled for those who wish to read. Read More |
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04.19.22- An Inflationary Black Swan Is Haunting the Fed There are several reasons behind this bout of high inflation. First, the economy is strong and employers have been adding more than 400,000 jobs for 11 straight months. Really? Read More |
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04.18.22- Basic Solutions To Our Economic Problems That Establishment
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04.16.22- “A Corrupt Tree Bringeth Forth
Today we lower our ax upon the root of America’s corrupt money tree… and expose its evil fruit… the fiat dollar. You may be aware of the corruption. If you are a regular reader you are likely aware of the corruption. Read More
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04.15.22- The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine
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04.14.22- Yes, It Is Different This Time
The irony of the sudden panic about real-world inflation generated by rising wages is two-fold: Read More |
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04.13.22- Concern For Stonks
The Fed's goal is to engineer a reverse wealth effect whereby a crashing stock market reduces overall demand for goods, and as such, this demand reduction will help the Fed to get inflation under control. Fed must ‘inflict more losses’ on stock-market investors to tame inflation, says former central banker. Read More |
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04.12.22- Yes, it is Possible to Fix This, but Don’t Hold Your Breath
King Louis XIV had just died the day before after a painful struggle with gangrene, leaving his five-year old great grandson to inherit the throne. Philippe had been appointed regent the week prior, meaning that he would rule France until the boy king came of age and could take the throne. Read More |
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04.11.22- They’ve Secretly Raised Your Taxes
The problem is that inflation cannot be isolated. It’s not limited to what you pay to fill up your car, for example. Truckers have to pay the same higher prices for diesel fuel, which add to transportation costs and to the final prices of delivered goods. Read More |
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04.09.22- The Commodity-Currency Revolution Begins...
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04.08.22- The Fed Cannot Undo the Damage It Has Already Caused
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04.07.22- Bond Market Volatility Here To Stay If Fed Has Way
Harry Truman once said: “If you can’t convince them, confuse them” -- an apt description of the current relationship between the Fed and interest-rate traders. Rates volatility has surged over recent weeks on a clouded outlook for monetary policy, as traders adjust positions based on expectations for Fed interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reductions. Read More |
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04.06.22- For Freak's Sake, People,
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04.05.22- Russia Just Made the One Announcement the Fed Has Always Feared
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04.04.22- Central Banks: Who Needs Them? No One
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04.02.22- Rate-Hikes Jeopardize Much More Than Just American Home Ownership
That’s largely true. The price and “value” of homes for the overwhelming majority of homeowners is a function of home buyers’ ability to make payments. And with the Federal Reserve signaling further interest rate hikes, home buyers and sellers—and assorted others who use credit—will incur knock-on effects from those increases. Read More |
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04.01.22- Mortgage Rates Chart Biggest Weekly Increase in 11 Years
While the Fed’s tiny monetary policy adjustments won’t likely put a dent in inflation, they are already having an impact on the economy. Last week, mortgage rates charted their biggest weekly increase in 11 years. Read More |
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03.31.22- Bond Massacre, Inflation Prick Biggest Bond Bubble in History
We’ve seen the headlines in recent days. “Worst Bond-Market Drawdown on Record.” Drawdown means drop in prices. “Global Bond Market loses $2.6 Trillion,” was another one. This was based on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks total returns of government and corporate bonds. And this index of global bonds has plunged 11% from the high in January 2021, the biggest percentage decline in the data that go back to 1990. Read More |
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03.30.22- Did Russia Intentionally Trigger A Monetary System Reset?
Fiat currency is a “promise” to repay a debt obligation and nothing more. A hard asset-backed currency is a guarantee that repayment will occur. Read More |
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03.29.22- Calm Before the Storm?
Trends are tricky. Humans anticipate the present conditions will continue on into the future. In economics and finance, we call this continuation a "trend." Trends continue until something fundamental changes and the trend takes a new course. Read More |
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03.28.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Capital Flows Confirm War is Coming!
Not only are we witnessing a withdrawal of Western capital from China realizing that the US has no interest in peace and China will be next, but we are also looking at collapsing confidence in globalization continuing from here on out. Read More |
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03.26.22- Exployers' Guide to SciFi World
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03.25.22- The Inflation Disaster Is Collateral Damage From Lockdowns
Apparently it’s going to get much worse. I wonder if at some point, no one will remember how this all began. Maybe everyone has already forgotten. Read More |
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03.24.22- Digital Slavery Dollars Are Coming
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03.23.22- These crises will reshape the world; Gold will be ‘reinstituted’ as money
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03.22.22- End the Fed and Get More Doritos
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03.21.22- What Can The Fed Do About The Price Of Food, Medicine, Gasoline, Or Rent?
Chart Notes
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03.19.22- The evolution of credit
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03.18.22- The Stagflation Trap Will Lead To Universal Basic Income And Food Rationing
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03.16.22- The Fed's Feckless Inflation Fight
Gold flirted with an all-time record high last week driven in part by safe-haven demand due to the geopolitical uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But as the war drags on and the panic subsides, that safe-haven bid seems to be unwinding. Read More |
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03.15.22- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Playing Dumb
It must be obvious by now that the biggest complainers about “misinformation” in the USA are biggest spreaders of it. When you hear “baseless” and “conspiracy theory” do you not automatically now scent the rot of propaganda working through the delicate tissues of reality? Eventually the stench of psyop is so sharp that it even wakes up the walking dead. Read More |
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03.14.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: This Ain’t Putin’s Price Hike: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix
Let’s be clear: you’re not paying more for necessities to punish Putin and save Ukraine, you’re paying more for necessities to fund an economic war of unprecedented scale geared toward collapsing Russia to help secure US unipolar domination of this planet. Read More |
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03.12.22- Federal Reserve Debt Monetization: Financial Fraud on a Biblical Scale
Today, most people don’t bat an eye at the national debt. But that wasn’t always the case. As David Stockman pointed out there was a great deal of concern about the national debt when he was President Ronald Regan’s Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Read More |
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03.11.22- Unprecedented Fed Action May Have Just Started a Global Currency Crisis
Unprecedented Action The Fed, likely acting on orders from the Biden administration, froze the US dollar reserve assets of Russia. Read More |
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03.10.22- And Now, for Something Entrely Different: Strategies to cope with an insane world
The English armies were equipped with relatively new technologies, like the longbow and bombard (an early medieval cannon), providing them major tactical advantages. Read More |
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03.09.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Nowhere Left to Hide
Time, they say, is nature’s way of making sure that everything doesn’t happen at once. If that’s so, then maybe time has stopped because all of a sudden everything seems to be happening at once. Three things, actually: 1) a Russian military operation in Ukraine that a lot of people in America want to turn into World War Three; 2) an epic crack-up of the world financial system; and 3) the breakdown of the fishy Covid-19 affair and especially the story behind its holy avatar: the mRNA vaccine. Read More |
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03.08.22- A Recession Unlike Any Other
The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the negative supply shocks that are already in place due to COVID-19. Worsening bottlenecks will combine with rising inflation to produce a contraction in global growth. Russia produces 12% of the world’s oil supply and exports 18% of the world’s wheat consumption. Ukraine accounts for 25% of global wheat production. Sanctions and war will serve to slow the economy further and send prices for these vital commodities even higher. Read More |
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03.07.22- The Fed Did It! Inflationary Collapse was Already Here.
Starting in 2020, however, I said inflation would be the news of our time. Read More |
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03.05.22- Powell’s Pivot to Nowhere
But now, with Russian tanks rolling through the “borderland,” negative supply shocks to the global economy will take things to a whole new level. The dial on nastiness has been cranked up to maximum. How all the madness is reconciled will be equally nasty. Read More |
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03.04.22- A Recession Looms, Blame the Fed and Biden, Not Russia
Recession On the Way A recession is on the way. Read More |
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03.03.22- A Few Comments About That Big ‘SWIFT’ Threat
For the first few days after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, most governments offered nothing but harsh words… and the obligatory thoughts and prayers. Now every organization in the world seems to be chipping in to punish Putin over this invasion. Even the International Judo Federation has removed Putin as its honorary president. Read More |
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03.02.22- Powell Kills March 50bps Rate Hike, But Leave Door Open For Later In 2022
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03.01.22- Global Financial System on the Brink
The United States and Europe moved to target Russian central bank reserves and sever the country’s banking system from the SWIFT global financial network. It is the financial equivalent of the nuclear option – something the Biden administration had explicitly declined to invoke last week before abruptly announcing the move on Saturday. Read More |
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02.28.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: US Trucker Convoy Swells As It Moves Across Country To DC
The People’s Convoy started with around 150 vehicles and has grown to over 250 as it made its way through Texas and Oklahoma over the weekend. Read More |
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02.26.22- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Push Has Come to Shove
This morning he seized Ukraine by the throat. Today he is squeezing plenty hard. We hazard he will soon have Ukraine down upon the floor. The fellow says he is willing to take his hands off — if Ukraine yells uncle and accedes to his demands. Read More |
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02.25.22- Could Geopolitical Risk
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02.24.22- What Does The Ukraine War Mean For What The Fed Does Next:
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02.23.22- The Federal Reserve: Enemy of American Workers
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02.22.22- It's Another Housing Bubble And The Fed Is Holding The Pin
That remains to be seen. Two things are for certain. The is a massive housing bubble. And the Fed is holding the pin. The bubble in the housing market today is bigger than it was before 2008. And there is a bubble for the same reason. The central bank has held interest rates artificially low for nearly two years. On top of that, it stuck its big fat thumb on the mortgage market with its purchase of mortgage-backed securities. With those loans off their books, banks could lend more. Read More |
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02.21.22- Money and Savings Are
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02.19.22- Passengers Scream Recession as Powell Dives His Plane for a Soft Nose-Cone Landing
Conversations throughout the cabin about our imminent demise Read More |
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02.18.22- Central Banks Are Now Insolvent
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02.17.22- Shocker From Fed Repo Oracle Zoltan Poszar: Powell Must Crash The Market
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02.16.22- With Inflation at a 40-Year High, the Fed Is Too Afraid to Act
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02.15.22- What is the Fed's Game Plan
But things are different now. As I have also recently explained, it is a bigger imperative to try and at least put some of the inflation toothpaste back in the tube. That is the political reality for a Fed which has recently become more political than ever. Read More |
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02.14.22- Fed One Meeting Away from Creating a Doomsday Market Sinkhole
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02.12.22- The Solution To The Inflation Problem Is Impossible Without
To avoid misunderstanding, it is important in any discussion about money to provide an accurate definition of what is money and what is not money. Let us clarify this at the outset: Read More |
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02.11.22- Why Is The Fed Suddenly Holding An Unscheduled "Expedited, Closed" Board Meeting On Monday?
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02.10.22- Fed Refuses To Release 60 Pages Of Correspondence On Pandemic Trades Scandal
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02.09.22- Why the Federal Reserve Note’s Decline Is FAR Worse Than Reported
They tell us the Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is strong and price inflation is completely under control. (We use quote marks because a true dollar is 24.057 grams of silver, whereas the Federal Reserve Note is a form of counterfeit.) Read More |
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02.08.22- U.S. Attains Frightening Milestone
But if anyone is actually thinking of celebrating this dubious accomplishment, I have some advice for you — get ready for the hangover. Let’s see how we got here… The U.S. government bond market was invented by Alexander Hamilton early in the first administration of George Washington around 1790. The newly formed United States of America was facing claims from creditors who had financed the Revolutionary War. Read More |
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02.07.22- ‘Trouble In The Bond Market’ Will Render The Fed Powerless
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02.05.22- Weekend Rant: No, the 'soul' of Money Is Not Trust in Central Banks
In a speech last month to Goethe University's Institute for Law and Finance in Frankfurt, Germany, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, Agustin Carstens, declared that the "soul" of money is trust in central banks: You know -- the institutions that, often in secret, bestow huge amounts of money on their cronies in politically connected financial institutions, rescuing the rich at the expense of the poor; that intervene secretly to manipulate and destroy markets, picking winners and losers; and that, their executives being unelected, generally subvert democracy. Read More |
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02.03.22- Peter Schiff: The Dollar Is Monopoly Money Supported By A Ponzi Scheme
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02.03.22- Peter Schiff: The Dollar Is Monopoly Money Supported By A Ponzi Scheme
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02.02.22- The Fed Is Trapped: It Has No Room to Taper or Raise Rates
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02.01.22- Could Blockchain Technology Help End Fractional Reserve Banking?
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01.31.22- Markets Have Seen This Movie Before (Spoiler Alert: The Ending Is Horrible)
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01.29.22- Gold Plunged But Didn’t Collapse Under The Hawkish Fed
The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”: Read More |
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01.28.22- Why dollar CBDCs may never happen
The CBDC proposition is being sold to us by the central banks as keeping up with the times and taking advantage of the opportunities presented by new technologies to evolve payment systems. Read More |
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01.27.22- Contrary to High Priest Powell, the Economy is NOT Strong
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01.26.22- Mainstream Suddenly Realizes Raising Interest Rates In A World Buried In Debt Might Be A Problem
A CNBC article declared, “Fed rate hikes will intensify a global debt crisis, research warns.” Well, yeah. Duh.Read More |
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Well, that was a day in markets! After an initial collapse in just about everything that threatened to not just take the S&P into correction territory, joining the Nasdaq, but to the worst start to a year since 1920, intraday saw a sudden, magical reversal. Rate hike bets tumbled out of the blue – just before the meeting, Read More |
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01.24.22- An Open Letter To The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System Regarding The Proposed Digital Currency
They are asking for your ‘opinion’ by answering 22 different questions. In today’s writing, I am going to offer some thoughts maybe not only for the Federal Reserve but for Louie and LouAnn LunchBox to consider. Read More |
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01.22.22- Weekend Rant: The Cult Of Speculation Is A Cult Of Doom
Every once in awhile the zeitgeist sets up an either / or: either the zeitgeist is crazy or I'm crazy. (OK, let's agree I'm crazy; see, it's not that hard to find something to agree on, is it?) Read More |
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01.21.22- Getting Emotional: A Bi-Polar Dollar vs. A Sane Precious Metal
In recent interviews and reports discussing the year ahead, I specifically cited the movements of the bi-polar US Dollar as one of the most critical market signals to watch. The case, for example, of a relative strengthening USD was made based (in part) upon demand form the ever-thirsty euro-dollar and US repo market. Read More |
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01.20.22- Stocks and Awe: The Federal Reserve Regime Change is Here!
The ridiculously skyrocketing Tesla has plunged back toward earth’s gravity on a trajectory that has lost 28% of its high-orbit altitude. Facebook (now transrendered as “Meta”) has done a face plant near bear territory, down 17%, as has Amazon, slithering down 16%. These are the market leaders that I’ve said would fall the hardest during the developing collapse. Read More |
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01.19.22- Inflation Fears Among Small Business Owners at Highest Level In 40 Years
The NFIB’s small business economic survey (pdf), released Jan. 11, shows that 22 percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, the highest reading since 1981. A year ago, a mere one percent of owners said inflation was their chief worry. Read More |
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01.18.22-And Now, for Something Entirely Different: No Time for Crybabies
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01.17.22- Fed Chair Faces
Now he’s attempting a nearly impossible feat… Read More |
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01.15.22- One Bank Predicts $3 Trillion In Quantitative Tightening Coming
Enter Deutsche Bank, which forecasts that once QT begins, the Fed's balance sheet will shrink from $9 trillion currently to $6 trillion. Read More |
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01.14.22- “Don’t Fight The Fed”
Armed with zero interest rate policy and the most aggressive monetary campaign in history, investors elevated the financial markets to heights only rarely seen in human history. Yet, despite record valuations, pandemics, warnings, and inflationary pressures, the “animal spirit” fostered by an undeniable “faith in the Federal Reserve” remain alive and well. Read More |
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01.13.22- The Fed Just Guaranteed a Stagflation Crisis in 2022 – Here’s How
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01.12.22- The Macro EndGame
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01.11.22- Fed’s Powell pumped trillions into the economy. Now, he may be the party killer.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has won bipartisan praise for two years for helping to rescue the economy. Now, as he faces a Senate confirmation hearing for a new term, he has a hard message to deliver: The party’s ending. Read More |
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01.10.22- The Fed Is Trapped: Crash The Market, Or Let Inflation Rip?
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01.08.22- Central Banks Rush to Protect Themselves from Incoming Disaster
On the global economic stage, the U.S. isn’t the dominant economic superpower that it once was. This conclusion comes from the declining popularity of dollars among global central banks. Around the world, national central banks stockpile “reserves” in order to back up the value of their own national currency. Here’s how Investopedia explains monetary reserves: Read More |
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01.07.22- A Fast-Moving Cancer
But there are certain things you can know in advance. For example, if you shut down an economy by force, you will wreck investor confidence in the future. We’ll get to that in a moment. For now, let’s talk about wholesale prices and inflation. Read More |
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01.06.22- Inflation: A Stealth Tax with No Maximum Rate
Many mistakenly attribute today’s rising prices solely to supply chain woes, and government officials are happy to fertilize that mythology—as Kamala Harris reflexively did last week in her rambling, didn’t-do-the-reading response to a question from Margaret Brennan: Read More |
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01.05.22- Jay Taylor: The Interest Rate That Breaks The Markets
But of course when the word inflation is mentioned most people think of the CPI. More from an Austrian economic perspective, I view the massive rise in stocks and bonds as a major component of inflation that is ignored by the mainstream. But it is at the heart of the massive redistribution of wealth from the middle class to the elite, and Nancy Pelosi absolutely loves the ability to use insider information to get rich. Read More |
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01.04.22- How Inflation Could Crash
For Baby Boomers who lived through the Carter years, 2021 might feel like déjà vu. That’s because inflation rose 6.8% again in November 2021, which is the highest level since June of 1982. That’s bad enough. And that’s not the worst of it… Read More |
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01.03.22- The Last Great Inflation
The Arab oil embargo of 1973 dominates most references to the last great inflation. No doubt oil played a role, but problems appeared long before the embargo. Read More |
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01.01.22- An Inflation Outlook for the US Dollar in 2022
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The idea of the central bank was born in the Middle Ages, when failures of the largest merchant banks of that era, founded by the Bardi and Peruzzi families, shocked the Italian City-State of Florence in 1343 and 1346. These financial crises gave birth to the idea that the commercial banking sector would need a “liquidity backstop,” i.e., an entity that could lend to private financial institutions in trouble. This was the original aim of central banks: to act as piggy banks for solvent commercial banks with temporary liquidity problems. 
Did Fed Chair Powell just jump straight from 'denial' to 'acceptance' on his journey through grief at the death of 'transitory' inflation? 
When the stock market is tanking (like it is now), the “traditional” advice is to move some of your savings into bonds (like 
As far as we are concerned, it is no great secret nor any great surprise that our faith in fiat money (in general) and the central bankers who have debased it (in particular) and precipitated the death of capitalism is anything but robust.
Over the years, many have continually asked “when”? When will the system break down? Well, I have some good news and some bad news for you. The good news is; you are watching the collapse in real time with your own eyes. The bad news? You are watching the collapse in real time with your own eyes! This will be short and sweet.
Last week, 
You cannot grow a turnip in a pile of dollar bills unless you let them rot first. Depending on the road the Fed takes, that could become the dollar’s highest value and the best the Fed can do to reduce food shortages. Whether the dollar decays depends, in good part, on whether the Fed chooses to fight inflation or chooses to fight the recession that is already bogging us down. It cannot do both; it never has, and whichever it does of one will worsen the other. 
We at Dohmen Capital Research declared our first “Opportunity of a Lifetime” in the history of our economic and investment research firm in 1978. At that time, our firm was a little over one year old. 
A lone deflationist on the lunatic fringe of economics 30 years ago, I wrote in Barron’s and the San Francisco Sunday Examiner that an out-of-control dollar eventually would do us in. Specifically, I asserted that a short squeeze on dollars would send their value soaring, making it difficult or impossible for anyone who owed dollars to repay them. I’d already run this idea past a few Ivy finance professors, who all had the same reaction: “What have you been smoking??” 
Benito Mussolini stated that “Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism, as it is the merger of corporate and government power.”
Like the flaming oil wells during the first Iraq War, Biden’s inflation fires blaze on. As of March 2022, inflation had risen by 8.5% compared to the same time last year.
I have recently entered adebate with some friends about what constitutes a sound banking system. We all follow the a priori reasoning of the Austrian school of economics. Readers familiar with the argument will know the position adopted by some adherents: banking should be split into deposit taking on a custody basis and separately for the arrangement of loans, providing capital for production from savings. In such a banking system, the production of bank credit out of thin air no longer occurs, along with the economic disruption from variations in its quantity. 
Question–
Below, we look at debt forces alongside supply and demand forces to help investors see (and prepare for) the darker forces within an entirely rigged end game and shifting financial backdrop.
This story begins in February 2020. COVID-19 swept through the U.S., and a media-generated panic set in, which sent shockwaves through the markets. Store shelves emptied, and millions of Americans locked themselves in their homes. Economic activity ground to a halt.
It is only a matter of time before Kiev surrenders to the Russians, with or without their clown-car president signing the armistice. But that deal will be so onerous from Washington’s perspective that it will not mark the end of the sanctions war, but will be an excuse for its actual intensification and indefinite prolongation.
A recession and hard landing is on the way. What will it look like?
Inflation is not a guessing game anymore; it’s here. Every time you buy gas at the pump or groceries at the supermarket or book a plane ticket, the price increases are staring you in the face.
Stocks don't vanish when sold; somebody owns the shares all the way to the bottom. These owners who refuse to sell because they have convinced themselves the next dip will be the hoped-for resumption of the bullish trend are called "bagholders." 
Our models have confirmed that Biden’s sanctions against all Russians have undeniably destroyed the global economy unfortunately precisely on time from its birth in 1950. Our capital flow models have confirmed that there has been an unprecedented cash outflow from China following Biden’s sanctions.
The outrageous prices at the grocery store and gas stations – the highest ever recorded and increasing at rates too fast to calculate with precision – are yet more collateral damage from the initial lockdowns two years ago. The story unfolds over two years but the line of causality is direct. 
The US government’s Consumer Price Index indicates prices have increased 7.9 percent in the last year. While this statistic shows the highest rate of increase in forty years, it still understates the amount prices have increased, in part because the statistic is manipulated to minimize reported price increases.
After fifty-one years from the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the system of fiat currencies appears to be moving towards a crisis point for the US dollar as the international currency. The battle over global energy, commodity, and grain supplies is the continuation of an intensifying financial war between the dollar and the renminbi and rouble. 
This past week during a conference discussing Biden’s “Build Back Better” scheme House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was confronted with questions on skyrocketing inflation. After referring to higher gas prices as the “Putin Tax”, she went on to offer perhaps the dumbest (or most insidious) denial on the causes of inflation that I have ever heard. 
The Fed is supposedly about to step into the ring to fight inflation. But all indications are it’s going to be a feckless fight.
Would our country be disappointed if Russia actually solves the problem of Ukraine? You have every reason to think so.
Higher fuel and food prices are a sacrifice I’m preparedto make in exchange for a greatly increased likelihood of nuclear armageddon. 
Not too long ago, 
The Fed took an unprecedented as well as illegal action on Russia that constitutes economic warfare and may easily start a currency crisis or something even worse.
On the 26th of August in the year 1346, English and French armies faced each other across the battlefield near the town of Crecy-en-Ponthieu in northern France in what would be among the first major battles of the Hundred Years War.
Financial markets are averse to threats of chaos and death. These conditions tend to interfere with formal promises between parties to service loans, which is the basis of finance.
The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed’s “PUT” is much lower and smaller in size than Wall Street believes.
For almost two years (starting in 2020 before you could see anyconsumer inflation at all), I have faithfully and consistently traced our trajectory toward scorching inflation that would cause a market disaster. Prior to that, inflationary burn-out was 
Slow growth. High prices. The U.S. economy – and the global economy – was already facing these disagreeable prospects before Putin invaded Ukraine.
A recession fueled by collapsing demand, a liquidity crunch, and fading stimulus effects is coming up. Inflation sure doesn’t help.
The largest truck convoy in the United States has grown in size since departing California and is attracting thousands of supporters as it makes its way to the East Coast. 
Mr. Putin is misbehaving again…
“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical risk” to remain cautious on changes to monetary policy.
On one hand, the soaring commodity prices as a result of the Ukraine invasion presage much higher inflation for the foreseeable future (with 
According to numbers released by the US government, consumer prices have increased by 7.5 percent in the past year, the steepest increase since 1982. The actual price increases are even worse than the government numbers suggest, given that the “official” statistics are manipulated to understate the real rate of price increases. According to John Williams of ShadowStats, prices have actually increased by around 15 percent over the past year. 
Are we heading toward housing crisis 2.0?
In the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), savings are established as the difference between disposable money income and monetary outlays. Disposable income is defined as the summation of all personal money income less tax payments to the government. Personal income includes wages and salaries, transfer payments, income from interest and dividends, and rental income. 
Having written my own articles about how we are going into recession dead ahead, I want to back those up with the chorus of alarmed comments everywhere now about Powell is power-diving our economy straight into a recession.
Behind the battle to convince everyone that price inflation is not a lasting problem is the necessity to keep interest rates and bond yields suppressed. In the past, the interest rate cycle was entirely due to the expansion and contraction of commercial bank credit. But that was before central banks built up bond portfolios through quantitative easing.
Back on November 7, just one day before the Russell, cryptos and most risk assets peaked for the year and perhaps this cycle, we asked a simple question yet one which the "expert punditry" immediately dismissed as it was - what else - just more conspiratorial thoughts, to wit: "
According to
We have all become accustomed to a world in which central banks—led by our own Federal Reserve—have seen as their first (if usually unacknowledged) role the fostering of asset bubbles. As recently as December Chairman Powell did somewhat acknowledge that, as I discussed at the time. 
The effective Federal Reserve funds rate (the EFFR) has been sitting at virtually zero for a long time now. It feels a little strange to think about the fact that it was 14 years ago when the central bank first helped to trigger the crash of 2008; and we are still dealing with the consequences of it today. I only started writing for the liberty movement two years before that. The amount of time that it takes for economic disasters to develop is well beyond the average person’s attention span. In fact, there are many people who are adults today that have no clue what happened in 2008 because they were in elementary school when it went down. 
With Fed speakers and their media proxies scrambling to walk-back St.Louis Fed's Jim Bullard's calls for an inter-meeting liftoff and uber-hawkish rate-hike trajectory, it is notable that all of a sudden, 
Having cost the jobs of three top Fed officials, including the Dallas and Boston Fed presidents as well as that of 
Americans are waking up to some uncomfortable truths. One of these is the fact that government bureaucrats and the corporate media regularly lie about what is going on in the world.
Well, we did it! It took some hard work, but the United States finally managed to find itself with $30 trillion of government debt.
What is the "soul" of money.
The 
Last November, the Federal Reserve System 
Fractional reserve banking has existed throughout history, long before the creation of government currencies or central banks. Once monetary custodians realized that not all depositors would demand repayment simultaneously, the practice of lending out deposits in excess of reserves became commonplace. This raises the question of how a system of full reserves would operate in practice. Although authors have laid out plans for establishing a full-reserve banking system using gold or fiat currencies, the decentralized and digital nature of blockchain technology provides some inherent advantages in implementing a full-reserve system. 
As I expected, the Fed didn’t raise rates this week at its January FOMC meeting.
The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn’t capitulated yet.
The Fed has just released its first public consultation paper on a dollar-based central bank digital currency. For many, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are a means of heading off private sector cryptos, but coincidentally the prices of bitcoin and others have collapsed, losing half their value since early November.
With rapt attention from all across the nation, the High Priest of Finance at the Federal Reserve took his position behind his presser pulpit. Biting his quivering lip again and again, he uttered his benediction over the US economy. He made sure to carefully speak the words I hear repeated across the nation like a mantra: “The Economy is Strong.” 
The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. But the US economy is buried under piles of debt. 
The Federal Reserve is ‘considering’ issuing a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).
Surely the Fed gods will affirm the cult's most revered articles of faith. But false gods eventually fail, even the Fed.
The bi-polar US Dollar, like so many market forces of late, is exhibiting some odd behavior.
The Everything Bubble is bursting, and the Fed has barely even begun its war on inflation. Many top stocks are already in their own bear markets. Nvidia, way off its game, has lost 25% of its value from its last high score.
Inflation fears among 
Do you know what most of America wants? I will tell you: America wants Daddy to step up and say, “Okay, you can stop being insane now. Really, enough is enough.” Trouble is, America is short on daddies these days. That’s what happens when you throw The Patriarchy on the old garbage barge. Mr. Trump was a kind of daddy, but to many women, especially, he was the wrong kind, Bad Daddy, the worst kind of daddy, the kind who makes you clean up your room and come home before midnight. They traded him in for demented Grampa. He just wants to fondle you — and not in a good way — but family decorum requires that we don’t talk about that. In the meantime, we can do whatever we feel like. 
The U.S. economy teeters between two catastrophes: wild and untamed hyperinflation that turns cash into wallpaper, or an epic crash that would make 2008 look like a day at the beach. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has led the U.S. government’s monetary policy to this point.
Wall Street has officially jumped the shark: with the economy set to slow this year - even as supply-driven inflation refuses to relent - consensus now expects 3-4 rate hikes this year (with Jamie Dimon predicting as many as "6 or 7") - some are going so far as to predict how much shrinkage the Fed's balance sheet will see in the coming years once it begins any time between March and June.
“Don’t Fight The Fed.” But, unfortunately, that mantra has remained a “call to arms” of the financial markets and media “bullish tribes” over the last decade.
I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the U.S. economy is in right now as we enter 2022. While most people are caught up in the ongoing drama of Covid-19, a real threat looms over the nation in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave. The mainstream media is attempting to place the blame on “supply chain disruptions,” but this is a misrepresentation of the issue. 
Hey everybody, welcome back to The Macro Compass!
Heightened frustration among Americans about soaring prices is fueling congressional pressure on the Fed chief over how the Fed will respond.
The times, they are a-changin’, as Bob Dylan tells us.
In retrospect, all economic events seem inevitable. The cause and effect become obvious. You can look back and easily see the policy disasters. It is always easy to predict backward in time.
All across the economic dashboard, inflation indicators are blinking red. Most recently, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 
If there was one word that caught the mainstream market off guard in 2021 it was “inflation.” My Inflation-Deflation Index finished near the high for the year at 190.34.
