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11.28.23- Fed Rate Cuts Will Not Save The Economy
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The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is over 7%, up from roughly 3% at the beginning of 2022. This has deterred prospective first-time homebuyers from taking the plunge and made existing homeowners reluctant to sell their homes and buy another — they'd rather stick with the super-low rates they already locked in. Read More |
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11.25.23- Skyrocketing Governmental Debt Threatens Financial Collapse
And next year we are likely to see the greatest money creation out of thin air in the entire history of the US. The Fed has to create ways to finance the record deficits by the creation of new money. Read More |
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11.24.23- People See Better Than Economists
Can you believe the Treasury market is already unwinding its bets that the Fed is done fighting inflation, even as the Champaign is still bubbling in half-empty flutes left behind from everyone’s celebration of the Fed’s victory? Of all the odd things, the average consumer out there, who is not heavily invested in stocks and bonds, seems to believe inflation is actually kind of bad and getting worse. Read More |
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11.23.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Celebrating Thanksgiving
On Oct. 3, 1789, America’s new president, George Washington, |
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11.22.23- As Debt Skyrockets, So Does This
There are a few things that are now admitted even in the somewhat-mainstream. The U.S. federal government is indebted by over $33 trillion, and it matters. It not only matters, but gold stands to benefit from it. It must, or we wouldn’t be seeing these two mentioned together so often. The metal has had a good week on what some attribute to fears of loose monetary policy. We know how the boom and bust goes. The moment the Federal Reserve shows any kinds of easing, we expect an avalanche of selling to crush the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power. Read More |
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11.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Leaving Blobtopia
A nation can only take so much corruption, crime, and unreality. ”We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality,” said Karl Rove, veteran blobster and advisor to George W. Bush, when he uttered those fateful words. Even political junkies forget the rest of what he said: Read More |
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11.18.23- Investors Are Running Back into a Building While the Fire Alarms are Still Sounding
The fire alarm sounded, and everyone fled out the exits, practically trampling each other to death in order to save their lives. Then they all came running back into the flaming building, practically tripping over each other due to the thick the smoke in order to get in first. What on earth happened? Read More |
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11.17.23- Gold soars as markets bet against December Fed hike
Gold prices rebounded strongly on Thursday following higher than expected US jobless claims data, which led markets to scale back expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. Read More |
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11.16.23- Exposing Our Fed-Driven
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One of the big surprises this year is that the Fed’s 5.5% policy rates and $1.1 trillion in QT have neither meaningfully tightened financial conditions nor slowed the economy. Read More |
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11.14.23- The Truth is Leaking Out
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11.13.23- Is the FedNow Broke?
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11.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Is A Cyber 9/11 Coming?
What the heck is Cyber 9/11? What does Cyber 9/11 mean? Is there a real risk? What should we be preparing for? Read More |
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11.10.23- Outsized Yield Swings Defy Bond Traders Bets For Calm
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s pushback against the idea that interest rate hikes are done undoubtedly played a role, the spike in yields was the largest for 20- and 30-year notes. Read More |
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11.09.23- U.S. Caught in Death Trap
This is a wastrel sunk impossibly in debt — credit card debt. Spiraling interest payments begin to swamp him. He must take on an additional credit card in order to satisfy interest payments on the original. Read More |
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11.08.23- Fed Chair Powell Does Not Comment On Outlook Or Policy
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11.07.23- Stocks decided last week to trust J. Powell to save them. They will be wrong.
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11.06.23- The Fed Has a Commitment Problem
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11.04.23- Once Upon a Time in Flagstaff
The rapid interest rate flux has been unpleasant for bankers, borrowers, and businesses. By our estimation the unpleasantness has only just begun. Read More |
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11.03.23- Why Biden’s Policies Are a Nightmare for Housing Affordability
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11.02.23- Can The Fed Really Risk A Dovish Turn In This Kind Of Environment
But lo, we are concurrently warned not to put too much emphasis on the September dot plot, which implies another rate hike. A new set of dots is due next month and the old ones lose reliability with age. Or so Powell tells us. Read More |
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11.01.23- The Zombies are Dying
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There are some things happening in this inflationary world that contradict well-established previous wisdoms, including that stocks are a hedge against inflation. Turns out, since QE started in 2008, all prior wisdoms had to be thrown out the window, and the new wisdoms are all about QE and now QT: QE makes stocks go up, and QT makes stocks go down, no matter what inflation and the real economy do. Read More |
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10.30.23- Death to Savers
This pushed stock, bond, and real estate markets well beyond what the underlying economy could support. Falsified interest rates also birthed wild objects of speculation. Speculative manias always gain momentum through the expansion of credit. A look back at past manias tells a familiar story. Read More |
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10.28.23- Cognitive Dissonance Hammers my Head
In the real world today, the Dow is negative for the year, with a third of the Dow down double-digits. At one point it was down over 400 points today. The S&P retired the day fully in correction while the NASDAQ, as I noted in the paid portion of yesterday’s “Deeper Dive” entered the correction zone Wednesday and crossed below its 200-day moving average on Thursday. It attempted to rise today on the positive energy of Amazon, which reported huge earnings, but it lost a good part of that rise by the end of the day. Unfortunately for it, its valiant effort was not enough to prove its bearish cross on Thursday was just a head-fake. So, it stuck the landing down in those nether regions, and stocks closed the week with a heavy thud. That’s Realworld. Read More |
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10.27.23- JPM CEO Dimon Dumps $140 Million In Shares After Slamming Fed Forecasts
According to a regulatory filing Friday, Dimon and his family will dispose of 1 million of the bank's shares, which amounts to around a $140 million haul, and the CEO's "first such stock sale during his tenure at the company."Read More |
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10.26.23- Dollar's Fate Is Sealed As Fed's Independence Eroded
It was good while it lasted. But the modern era of monetary policy independence is drawing to a close, with central banks reverting to their usual position of subservience to their fiscal overseers. Read More |
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10.25.23- Jerome Powell Isn’t Qualified to Be in Any Economic Club
Peter opened the discussion by saying Powell is not the person to bring in if you want answers about the economy. Read More |
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10.24.23- The Next Gold Bull Market Could Be Around the Corner
It’s not the most accurate thing to say, perhaps, from a technical standpoint, as gold has seesawed across that level quite a bit over the last three years. But in that time, there were three spectacles that brought gold to $2,000 from various sideways trades. Those were the lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war and conflict between Israel and Hamas. Read More |
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10.23.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Social Contract Is Shredded
It’s easy enough to regard the social contact not as explicit but implied, evolved and organic to the public mind. At the most intuitive level, we can think of it as a widely shared understanding of mutual obligation, a tie that binds, and also the exchange relationship between society and state. Read More |
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10.21.23- Restrictive Yields Will Be The Fed’s Waterloo
If you don’t remember, the “Battle of Waterloo” was fought on June 18th, 1815. The battle was a catastrophic defeat for the Napoleonic forces and marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Before that defeat, Napolean had a successful campaign of waging war in Europe. Read More |
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10.20.23- Powell Drops a Sledge Hammer on the Market's Dull Head
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10.19.23- Zombie Alert!
For we have detected “zombies.” Zombies? Mr. Robert Burrows of BondVigilantes.com:
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10.18.23- Too Much Debt!
First, debt laden banks Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks’ bond portfolios are now close to $400bn — an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Read More |
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10.17.23- Buckle Up, Things Are About to Get MESSY
There are no shortage of reasons. First and foremost, Inflation remains HOT. Read More |
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10.16.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: A Global Release of Tensions
This new catastrophe, quickly globalizing, makes the war in Ukraine seem as comfortable as an old sweater. Read More |
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10.14.23- Bad Money—The Bane Of Liberty And Prosperity, Part 1
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10.13.23- Crisis Events Are A Hallmark Of The Federal Reserve
Such is a question worth asking as we look back at the Fed’s history of previous monetary actions. Such was a topic I discussed in “Investors Push Risk Bets.” To wit: Read More |
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10.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Israeli Flashpoint - Localized Skirmish... Or the Beginning of Major Global Black Swan?
There are many circulating accounts of all the things that seem “off” about Hamas’ attack, so I won’t recount every single point here as most of you have likely read them in multiple places; things like the very implausible breach of Israel’s high tech gates and defenses, to the unprecedented failures of Mossad and Shin Bet, to Netanyahu’s eerily scripted invocation of ‘Pearl Harbor’, which is very telling considering that Pearl Harbor was also a falseflag attack with the purpose of bringing the U.S. into WW2. Read More |
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10.07.23- Why Paul Krugman Can't Admit Inflation Is Making Americans Poorer
New government data have some unwelcome news: The public is getting poorer. Census Bureau data released last week show that median household income fell to $74,580 last year, down nearly $1,800 from the previous year, $76,330. Read More |
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10.06.23- How the Fed's 'higher for longer' rate hikes will squeeze the US government
That's why the surge in bond yields has fueled concerns over the Federal Reserve and government debt, and what deficit watchers see as a looming crisis spelled out in budget lines. Read More |
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10.05.23- It’s time to separate legend from reality
It was the year 667 BC, more than 2,700 years ago, and Byzas was on a mission from the Greek mainland to find new colonies. His fleet had just landed on the European side of modern day Istanbul. And as he gazed across the river to the Asian side, Byzas could see another small settlement– a tiny colony known as Chalcedon. Read More |
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10.04.23- It's All Coming Down!
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10.02.23- Time To End The Fed And Its Mismanagement Of Our Economy
In fact, as long as the Fed has been around, it has swung the economy between inflation and recession. Yet Americans, surprisingly, have tolerated it. But we shouldn’t expect that to go on forever. We had three central banks before the Fed, and confined each to the ash heap of history. Read More |
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09.30.23- The Costco Gold Indicator
All I do is write about the Federal Reserve. I've been talking about them for the last 15 years nonstop and have constantly been skeptical of monetary policy in this country. This policy can best be described as a combination of Sam Bankman-Fried's and Bernie Madoff's management styles—combined and on a sovereign scale. Read More |
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09.29.23- What Should the Federal Reserve Do Now?
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09.28.23- Lawmakers Oppose Digital Dollar. There's Just One Problem.
US lawmakers advance legislation blocking the digital dollar When I read this article (the first time) I thought, “Well, that’s good, someone out there realizes what Catherine Fitts and many others including yours truly have been warning about: a central bank digital currency is too easy to couple to a social engineering system, and affords no privacy. Read More |
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09.27.23- A Crisis Is Coming:
We are not clairvoyant in predicting a crisis; however, we do appreciate financial history. Read More |
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09.26.23- The Fed Holds the Fed Funds Rate Steady – Because it Doesn’t Know What Else to Do
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09.25.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Understanding the
Lincoln and the Republicans understood that the 2 March 1861 Morrill Tariff would result in secession of Southern states from the Union. On the same day in an effort to prevent secession, the Republicans passed and Lincoln endorsed the Corwin Amendment. The Corwin Amendment would have made it impossible for slavery to be abolished. Read More |
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09.23.23- Future Headline: Federal Reserve Announces Latest Rate Cut to Minus 4%
“Future Headline Friday” is our satirical take of where the world is going if it remains on its current path. While our satire may be humorous and exaggerated, rest assured that everything we write is based on actual events, news stories, personalities, and pending legislation. Read More |
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09.22.23- 5 Ways the Fed Just Made Americans Poorer
After that meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed would (at least momentarily) pause their recent string of interest rate hikes. This decision surprised almost no one. Read More |
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09.21.23- Fed Continues to Signal Another Rate Hike
In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, twelve of nineteen FOMC members projected rates would fall between 5.50 and 5.75 percent by the end of 2023. The remaining seven FOMC members projected rates would remain in the current 5.25 to 5.50 percent range. Only twelve members vote on the policy rate—the seven governors, the New York Fed president, and four of the remaining regional Reserve Bank presidents. And we do not know what those specific twelve members have projected. Still, the latest projections suggest that another rate hike is on the horizon. Read More |
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09.20.23- Central Bankers
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09.19.23- The Soft-landing Narrative
The government's fiscal stimulus in 2023 has temporarily lifted the GDP growth rate. However, fiscal stimulus is not a reliable source of economic growth. It undermines productivity in the long term. It also creates problems such as higher taxes, higher interest rates, and harmful destabilizing inflation. Read More |
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09.18.23- Deflation, Stag or Crack-Up Inflation?
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09.16.23- Lots of Red Ink at the Fed
How does a central bank, especially the world’s greatest and most important central bank, lose tens of billions of dollars in six months? An average person, influenced by the mystique of the Fed, might understandably be baffled by this fact. Read More |
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09.15.23- The Biggest Con Job in Banking: The Savings Account
Today, let’s take a break from exploring the downsides of higher interest rates. Let’s focus on the positive. Read More |
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09.14.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Rothschild Admits ESG Failure As Globalists Shift To “Inclusive Capitalism” Agenda
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09.12.23- We're Living On Borrowed Time!
But you can’t kick the can down the road forever. Eventually, you will run out of road. Read More |
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09.11.23- The Fed Is Flying America into an Economic Storm
The so-called “experts” at the central banks who are trying to lead the United States out of the current economic mess marked by persistent inflation – could be doing so without understanding where things truly are, nor in what direction they are truly headed. Read More |
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09.09.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: A Theory of the Game
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09.08.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The New Authoritarian Agenda Revealed (Globalism Rebranded)
Remember when people used to say that global governance by elitists was a paranoid fantasy? Read More |
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09.07.23- The U.S. Fiscal Situation Deteriorates
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But Texas Governor John Connally was an avid hunter. He recognized the sound, sensed danger, and turned behind him to check if President Kennedy was OK. Read More |
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09.05.23- Are We Heading For a Great Depression? Or Something Worse?
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09.04.23- More Americans Are Realizing the Fed’s Role in Causing Higher Prices
Precious metals markets enter trading for the month of September with bulls hoping positive seasonal forces kick in. Gold and silver markets have traded mostly lower since late spring. They did rally, though, during the second half of August. Read More |
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09.02.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Upcoming Gold Bull Market: How High Will Gold Prices Go?
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09.01.23- What the Central Bank Cartel has Planned for You
Thorsten Polleit (TP): The global currency plot denotes a rather inconvenient truth: the existence of states (as we know them today) sets into motion a dynamic process toward creating a single world fiat money controlled by a world central bank, and most likely a central world government. The beneficiaries will be the very few—the “elite”—in charge of running the state and those few privileged by the state, such as big business, big banking, Big Pharma, and Big Tech. However, the great majority of the people will suffer a very great disadvantage. In fact, a single world fiat currency would most likely entail tyranny. Read More |
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08.30.23- "Central Banks Just Made It Clear They Aren't In Control,
The Jackson Hole central banking symposium has been running at its Wyoming venue since 1981. As such, it spans almost the entire neoliberal economic era in which central banks have been independent rockstars, not the boring civil servants following a political lead of prior decades. Ironically, 2023’s event, titled "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," pointed out an intellectual hole at central banks and their sudden lack of power, prompting look-in-the-mirror criticism. Read More |
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08.29.23- Will This Be The Fall Of Falls?
The world economy and the financial system is now on the cusp of a precipice. No one can forecast when the coming violent turn will come. It can take years or it can happen tomorrow. Read More |
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08.28.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: "The Covenant of Death"
Please forgive my recent silence. I am locked in an apartment in Brooklyn, copyediting a new book (out in November with Chelsea Green), titled Facing the Beast. You can guess what it is about. Read More |
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08.26.23- "A Long Way To Go" - Fed Chair Powell Delivers Hawkish J-Hole Speech
Chair Powell said The Fed is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed and intends to keep borrowing costs high until inflation is on a convincing path toward the Fed’s 2% target.
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08.25.23- Stocks Will Have One Last Hurrah After Jackson Hole
After months of rising almost uninterruptedly, stocks finally hit resistance as longer-term real yields rose to a 15-year high. The main driver though - a belief that the Fed will up its estimate of the neutral rate at Jackson Hole - is likely to come unstuck, prompting a relief rally in stocks. Read More |
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08.24.23- De-dollarization "Irreversible" - Putin Tells BRICS Summit In Remote Address
Putin addressed the summit remotely, and emphasized in the Russian-language speech that de-dollarization is "gaining momentum". Read More |
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The Coming Collapse of the
Strong words, but anything less would be naïve. As economist Herbert Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it has a tendency to stop.” Case in point: fiat money political regimes. Interventionist economies of the West are in a fatal downward spiral, comparable to that of the Roman Empire in the second century, burdened with unsustainable debt and the antiprosperity policies of governments, especially the Green New Deal. Read More |
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08.22.23- The Fed Is In A No-Win Situation
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08.21.23- Two Years to Bust
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08.19.23- The U.S. Dollar’s Monopoly
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08.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Did Big Pharma Buy So Many Governments?
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08.17.23- The Federal Reserve’s Success Is a Failure for You and Me
Even so, the Fed’s failure to properly manage price stability has rarely been more clear than it is today. Many mainstream economists (Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke spring to mind) would tell you the Fed is an indispensable institution, and our economy simply couldn’t function without it. Read More |
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08.16.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Great American Blunder
Remember the images of U.S. helicopters taking off from its South Vietnamese embassy in 1975, loaded with refugees trying to escape the country? It was a national humiliation. Read More |
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08.15.23- Powell's 'Abracadabra'
If we look at price stability, the Fed has failed miserably. The Fed employs 3,000 people in Washington DC of which 300 have a Ph.D. degree. Read More |
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08.14.23- BRICS, CBDCs, and Misdirection - with a Personal Perspective
As a young first-year graduate student in 1997, I was required to take a class called 'Banking and Monetary Policy'. As I registered, the course itself sounded rather interesting - my undergraduate work had been in the field of what is now called Molecular Biology. It was an introductory course, taught by a professor who was in exile from South Africa. Read More |
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08.12.23- Why Uncle Sam Really Hates Cash
If you’ve ever sent a wire, ACH or e-check through a bank, and were frustrated that it took up to five business days to clear, that problem may be solved. At least, that’s what the Fed’s description of the service says: It is available to depository institutions in the United States and enables individuals and businesses to send instant payments through their depository institution accounts. The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments. Read More |
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08.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Information War
How has information warfare evolved over time? Doug Casey: Information has always been, and still is, the single most important factor in any conflict. Read More
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08.10.23- Credit Crunch: The Money Supply Has Shrunk For Eight Months In A Row
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08.09.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Why Don’t We Trust
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08.08.23- The Real Threat Is A Market-Driven Dollar-Downgrade
The bond market got pummeled last week with four losing days before a rally on Friday driven by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. That rally wasn’t enough to recover all the losses, and yields finished the week above 4% across the board. Read More |
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08.07.23- Secretary Yellen Whines about Fitch’s Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating
Credit ratings agency Fitch this week issued a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government's once vaunted AAA credit rating. Recent political brinksmanship surrounding the debt ceiling helped prompt the move. But broader concerns about the size and sustainability of the national debt itself also figured into the downgrade. Read More |
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08.05.23- German Central Bank: Gold Revaluation Account Underlines Soundness of Balance Sheet
The President of the Dutch central bank made a similar remark in November 2022. These statements accentuate gold’s role as a remedy regarding financial challenges created by boundless money printing. Read More |
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08.04.23- The Fed Hits
As of June, the economy hit another dubious milestone: Inflation has now reached 3,000 percent under the Federal Reserve. Read More |
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08.03.23- The Fed's Perfect History of Textbook Crash Landings
Investors have now gone “all in” on the soft-landing narrative, just like they did in 1989, 2000 and 2007. Read More |
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08.02.23- Here’s What the Fed Does Next
Today, you’ll receive a full recap of what happened with last week’s Fed meeting. I’ll explain what happened in terms of policy moves, what Fed Chair Jay Powell believes will happen next, and what will actually happen. Read More |
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08.01.23- The Federal Reserve has $910 billion in losses
This isn’t some wild conspiracy theory or overly dramatic interpretation of the facts; we’re extremely data-focused in this organization and base our conclusions on indisputable, open-source figures. Read More |
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07.31.23- Bond Market’s Mirror Image
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07.29.23- How the Fed Might Trigger Another Great Depression
That brings the Federal target funding rate to 5.25-5.5%, the highest rate in over two decades. (Granted, those were two decades of perpetual emergency, the lowest-for-longest rates in U.S. history.) Powell summarized the FOMC decision as follows: Read More |
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07.28.23- Private Corporations Don't Cause Price Inflation. Governments Do
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The Fed’s FOMC raised its five policy rates by 25 basis points today, which pushed the upper limit of its policy rates to 5.5%, the highest since January 2001. The Fed had broadly telegraphed this move after the “very hawkish skip” meeting in June, when it projected two more rate hikes this year. The Fed has hiked by 525 basis points in 16 months, the fastest rate-hike cycle since 1980, to deal with the worst inflation in 40 years. The vote was unanimous. Read More |
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07.26.23- Race to the Bottom
Over the past nine months, the Japanese yen rallied 13% against the dollar. But now the yen has started to fall in value. This decline is not surprising. Japan’s economy has been flirting with recession. A new recession, likely in my view, would be the ninth recession since the historic stock market and real estate crash in Japan in 1990. Read More |
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07.25.23- Global De-Dollarization Accelerates – What’s Next?
Now it’s time to apply that idea to a different topic: de-dollarization. Mike Maloney surmises that the dollar will, at first, slowly be replaced by alternatives as the global reserve currency. Then, after alternatives build momentum (e.g. BRICS nation currencies), they could get adopted “suddenly.” Read More |
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07.24.23- The Fed Craps Out #1 - Explorers' Guide To Scifi World
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07.22.23- Federal Reserve officially launches new FedNow instant-payments service
Whether it’s providing instant access to paychecks, allowing for last-minute bill payments or sending government payments out to individuals, the system is expected to improve the flow of money through the U.S. economy. Read More |
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07.21.23- The Collapse of the ‘Risk-Free’ Delusion: Implications for the $133 Trillion Bond Market
The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the 30-year Treasury collapsed over 39%. Many other bonds did even worse. Read More |
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07.20.23- Your Bidenomics
There is finally some good news! According to data released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wages are finally outpacing inflation: In June, for the first time in 26 months, US workers’ real weekly earnings (a week’s worth of wages adjusted for inflation) grew on an annual basis, according to data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annual real weekly wages were up 0.6% last month, a rate that’s a tick below the 0.7% gain seen in February 2020. Read More |
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07.19.23- Great King’s Days Are Numbered
As I’ve been warning my readers, the most significant development in international finance since 1971 will be unveiled just over one month from today. A new BRICS gold-linked currency will be announced on Aug. 22 at the BRICS Leader’s Summit conference in Durban, South Africa (the BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Read More |
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07.18.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Our Alleged President is a Corrupt Scumbag – and the Ruling Class
It’s undeniable that PINO – President-In-Name-Only – Joe Biden is massively corrupt in every possible way. From leveraging his position as vice-president for cash to covering up for his meth-addled, stripper-banging, scumbag son – who is currently spilling his Bolivian party powder all over the White House – this senile pervert is a one-man crimewave. Read More |
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07.17.23- The Fed's Big Inflation Battle
Yes, there was a lot to like in last week’s report: Headline CPI rose just 0.2% and the year-over-year rate fell 1% to 3.0%, the lowest since March 2021. Core inflation rose 0.2%, to 4.8% y/y, down from 5.3% in May and the peak of 6.6% in September 2022. Read More |
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07.15.23- Yellen Shocks Investors with Strange De-Dollarization Comment
Janet Yellen, the current Secretary of the Treasury and former head of the Federal Reserve (2014-2018), assured us in 2017 there wouldn’t be another financial crisis during our lifetimes. Maybe that was just wishful thinking. I can forgive her for failing to predict the 2020 coronavirus pandemic panic, the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar money-printing stimulus spree (and the subsequent 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest bank collapses in U.S. history). Read More |
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07.13.23- Even If Jerome Powell Is Successful, We Still Lose
I hesitate to elevate the Fed and its rate-hiking regime to the status of a serious challenger, though it qualifies for any short run period. Read More |
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07.12.23- The Goldilocks Zone
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07.11.23- Taxing Us to Death;
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07.10.23- Would you honestly hire the Federal Reserve to manage your finances?
The news traveled very quickly all the way to the Pentagon, and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara briefed President Lyndon Johnson on the situation. Read More |
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07.08.23- A Cure Worse Than The Disease
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07.07.23- The Federal Reserve Has Been a Disaster for America
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Unlike most Democrats, RFK Jr. is against escalating the war in Ukraine and seems to be generally anti-war. Likewise, he’s not on board with a lot of the woke insanity. Read More |
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07.05.23- Our Purchasing Power Is Getting Wrecked
Purchasing power is getting destroyed, and those without assets suffer most Read More |
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07.04.23- Holiday Special: Declaring Independence From The Parasite Caste
Why? How will this July 4 be any different from that of 2020? Haven’t the past three years revealed that Americans not only take liberty for granted but readily reject it? Is it not the least bit curious that some, if not most, of those who’ll be setting off fireworks also begged to be locked down and masked? Read More |
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07.03.23- All Wars Are Bankers' Wars
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06.30.23- Washington’s Bias for Continuous Inflationism
In short, Powell’s inflation fight isn’t over. Core CPI, which excludes food and fuel prices, is increasing at an annual rate of 5.3 percent. Similarly, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.7 percent from a year ago. Read More |
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06.29.23- The Fed’s “One Weird Trick”
“Bringing Demand Forward” by lowering interest rates and lending standards so Americans could continue to buy stuff they didn’t really need because the monthly payment dropped as interest rates were pushed toward zero. Read More |
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06.28.23- What’s Going on With the Fed Balance Sheet?
Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, it has also shrunk the balance sheet. But balance sheet reduction hasn’t been aggressive. In fact, the decline in the balance sheet since the pandemic is like a drop of water in the ocean compared to the expansion we’ve seen since 2008. Read More |
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06.27.23- Fed Paused To Prevent Banking System Collapse
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06.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: A Legacy for America’s Children
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06.24.23- Apocalypse FedNow
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06.23.23- Economies and Central Banks: The Disconnect
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06.22.23- The Reset: When Will Globalists Attempt To Introduce Their Digital Currency System?
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06.21.23- Would you honestly hire the Federal Reserve to manage your finances?
The news traveled very quickly all the way to the Pentagon, and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara briefed President Lyndon Johnson on the situation. Read More |
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06.20.23- Don’t Skip!
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06.19.23- Expect The "Pivot" Next...Rates Could Go NEGATIVE!!
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06.17.23- Elon Musk Warns a New Economic Problem Is Looming
Elon Musk does not disarm. The billionaire has just repeated a warning he issued last September. For him, the American economy is at great risk because of the series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Read More |
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06.16.23- Sound Money Is Required for Real Budget Discipline
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06.15.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Annual US Excess Deaths Relative To Other Developed Countries Are Growing At An Alarming Rate
In 2021, more than 892,000 of the 3,456,000 deaths the U.S. experienced, or about 1 in 4, were “excess deaths.” In 2019, that number was 483,000 deaths, or nearly 1 in 6. That represents an 84.9% increase in excess deaths in the U.S. between 2019 and 2021. Read More |
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06.14.23- The Great Dollar Paradox
You see it in publications from The New York Times to The Economist and in financial media including CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg. The idea is that countries around the world are preparing to ditch the dollar. This takes many forms including efforts by China to pay for imported oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE with yuan and a major bilateral agreement between China and Brazil that allows each country to pay for exports from the other using their local currencies. Read More |
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06.13.23- The Fed is Once Again Using the Wrong Tools to End Inflation
Today we’re going to dissect #1. Read More |
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06.12.23- The US Economic Fairytale - Save The System Or The Currency
I see a similar fate for the US debt egg, whose cracks are just about, well… everywhere. Read More |
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06.10.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Is AI the Beginning of The End, Or Just A Beginning?
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06.09.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: “Does Anyone Believe American Propaganda Anymore?”
This is the question of investigative journalist Matthew Taibbi. We can offer no answer of course. Yet we hazard the number of those who do dwindle daily. You recall the dynamiting of the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Through this underwater tube Russia funneled natural gas to Germany. Read More |
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06.08.23- Is Inflation Taxation?
“This is a follow up question for the post you wrote about ‘Why Does the Federal Reserve Target 2% Inflation?’ Milton Friedman once stated that, ‘Inflation is taxation without legislation.’ Are you able to give your insight into that claim? If that is correct then why do we as American citizens allow that to happen? One of the reasons we fought the revolutionary war was because of taxation without representation.” Read More |
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06.07.23- The Trouble with Printing Money
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06.06.23- Front-Running The Fed: How Gold & Chess-Players Beat A Rigged Market
We’ve all seen the disastrous credit events in the repo crisis of late 2019, the UST debacle in March of 2020, the gilt implosion of October 2022 and, of course, the banking crisis of March, 2023. And behind, beneath, above and below each of these debacles lies a bemused central banker. Read More |
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06.05.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: New CDC Director
Party membership was proof of loyalty. It was a demonstration that you were willing to put loyalty over morality. Rising high in the party also meant that others in the ruling class likely had something on you. No one gained power without other powerful people knowing of your grim deeds. That way there was mutual trust, or, to put it another way, mutual blackmail. Read More |
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06.03.23- The World According
He begins with an overview of the Federal Reserve's approach to financial stability: Read More
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Brace For The $1 Trillion Aftershock
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05.31.23- FedNow Is a Precursor to the Digital Dollar
I talked about this in my essay yesterday. FedNow is a milestone in the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Read More |
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05.30.23- The Bankruptcy Caravan Is Now Arriving: Time to Pay for the Easy Money
Ground-hugging interest rates for more than a decade kept the inefficient and the incompetent in business. Now, the jig is up, with a Mother’s Day weekend corporate massacre that saw the bankruptcies of seven corporations, each with liabilities of nine figures or more—in four cases, with more than a billion dollars in liabilities each. Read More |
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05.29.23- Facts vs. Fed-Speak: A Comical History with Tragic Consequences
Keep It Simple, Stupid It’s true that, “the Devil is in the details.” Anyone familiar with Wall Street in general, or market math in particular, for example, can wax poetic on acronym jargon, Greek math symbols, sigma moves in bond yields, chart contango or derivative market lingo. Read More |
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05.27.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Great Silence
Major media too is discredited. Young people are dying at levels never seen. Populations are still on the move from lockdown states to where it is less likely. Surveillance is everywhere, and so is political persecution. Public health is in a disastrous state, with substance abuse and obesity all at new records. Read More |
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05.26.23- Jamie Dimon Warns QT Will Lead To More Bank Failures
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05.24.23- Crash Course 2.0: The Fed
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05.23.23- The Federal Reserve’s Anti-inflation Policy Makes No Sense
Dear readers and fellow economists, the Federal Reserve is treating a rise in prices from supply shocks and disruptions from the Covid lockdowns and sanctions against Russia, Iran, and other countries as if it were a monetary inflation. It is true that too much money is chasing too few goods and services, but the cause is supply shortages and not excess consumer demand. Read More |
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05.22.23- How Fed incompetence will drive inflation higher
My wife is Ukrainian, and her family had been stuck in Kiev since the start of the war. For months leading up to the invasion, they ignored the Russian troops massing on the border and casually rejected my offer to fly them out of the country. Read More |
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06.20.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Corruption Makes You Poor
If so, you’ve likely noticed that things don’t quite add up between what you’re regularly told about how the economy and financial markets work and what you actually experience. We think there’s more to this than just dollars and cents. Read More |
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05.19.23- “A Corrupt Tree Bringeth Forth Evil Fruit”
Today we are in transit. We lift our siege of Jekyll Island, Georgia… and take to the aerial ways. Our destination is the Maryland city of Annapolis, by way of the Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Read More |
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05.18.23- Fed Up Yet?
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05.17.23- The Creature From Jekyll Island
At a gate seldom used at this hour of the night was a spectacular sight. Nudged against the end-rail bumper was a long car that caused those few who saw it to stop and stare. Read More |
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05.16.23- Why the Government Debt Crisis Will Blow up before we Even Get to Default
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05.15.23- Circa: Now!
To begin, consumer price inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that consumer price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is increasing at an annual rate of 4.9 percent. Read More |
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05.13.23- Federal Reserve’s “Great Pause”… And What Happens Next
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point—and could be done. Well, they might be done “raising” rates, but they shouldn’t be in the rate setting business—up, down or sideways— in the first place. That’s because market capitalism doesn’t work if financial asset prices are being pegged artificially and falsely by a 12-man monetary politburo rather than the vast throng of suppliers and users of funds in the global marketplace. Read More |
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05.12.23- The Dynamics Driving the Dollar Down
The dollar’s problems should be laid at the door of the wishful thinkers who think the state knows better than free markets. It is that which has led to currency imbalances. Central banks attempting to manage economic outcomes by manipulating interest rates and “stimulating” economic activity have acted in defiance of Say’s law, which defines the relationship between production and consumption, and the true role of a medium of exchange. Read More |
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05.11.23- The Great Wealth Illusion
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05.10.23- "Stagflation Is Much More Likely Than Deflation"
“Hope is never a strategy.” This morning: The Market Commentariat think deflation will counter inflation, rates will fall, and recession will be limited. The world is more complex – supply side factors are more volatile. Stagflation is a more likely outcome than recession. Read More |
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05.09.23- Build Your Own Crystal Ball
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05.08.23- "This Shows They're Panicked, Flipping Things On & Off Like Light Switches"
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05.06.23- The Fed Has Virtually Guaranteed a 2023 Recession
First, the Fed continues to promote the delusion that the banking system is “sound and resilient.” Second, they remain focused on bringing inflation back down to Chairman Powell’s pet target rate of 2%. Read More |
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05.05.23- What if the Fed Has Lost Control?
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05.04.23- Peter Schiff: The Fed Has Screwed Up Everything That Is a Function
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05.03.23- Fed’s Looking in Wrong Direction
There are literally hundreds of economic indicators either as hard data or sentiment surveys released daily. It’s impossible for any analyst to keep up with all of them. Read More |
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05.02.23- The US Dollar is Finished
US power since World War II has been based on its financial dominance stemming from the dollar being the reserve currency held by central banks in place of gold. As the dollar was the currency used to settle international trade accounts, every country needed dollars. That ensured a large demand for dollars to absorb the supply of dollars from the growing US budget and trade deficits. Read More |
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05.01.23- The Fed is Trapped: This Recession Will Be MASSIVE!
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04.28.23- What the End of Fed Rate Hikes Means for Stocks
By now, it’s very well possible GDP has already slipped into reverse. We won’t know until the Commerce Department’s Q2 report is released in late July. In the interim, there’s an important question to be asked: Is a recession bullish or bearish for stocks? Read More |
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04.27.23- Fedbucks Coming to a Theater Near You This Summer!
The Fed is about to introduce a system that allows immediate processing of transactions between banks to take away whatever float you thought you might have had left between the time when you ran your debit card or wrote a check to the time it cleared the bank. Read More |
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04.26.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Federal Judiciary Is More Dangerous Than Russia, China, or Iran
“The rest of us all wondered what kind of vetting process was involved when this person was identified as the most qualified individual to oversee America’s nuclear policies. “BIGOT!” they screamed at us when we gave the natural side-eye to this obviously disturbed individual.” Read More |
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04.25.23- The Credit Crunch Is Going To Be One Of The Biggest Stories
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04.24.23- Bank reserves could fall by $2.5 trillion as the Fed reduces its balance sheet, Fitch Ratings says
"System-wide banking liquidity indicators are still robust, but our projection is for reserves to fall significantly by USD900 billion to USD2.5 trillion by year-end," the ratings agency said. Read More |
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04.22.23- Millennials Are Slowest Generation To Hit 50% Homeownership, Fear That Fed Is Making A Permanent Renter Class (Fed Policy Errors Strike Again!)
For example, the massive almost hysterical overreaction of The Fed under Powell (following Yellen’s Reign of Error) to the Covid economic shutdowns resulted in a massive surge in M2 Money growth [green line]. Read More |
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04.21.23- How Quickly Will the Dollar Collapse?
The dollar’s monopoly was notably challenged by Saudi Arabia, which removed itself from the US’s sphere of influence to that of China and Russia. Consequently, peace has broken out throughout the Arab lands. Read More |
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04.20.23- Revealing the Fraud
First, last week’s piece on financial formulas received fantastic feedback. I’m grateful. I won’t do financial mathematics every week, but the feedback gave me a clue to dial it back a bit. So I’ll try to keep things as simple as possible so you can protect yourselves from what’s eventually coming. Read More |
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04.19.23- The Fed Is Bankrupt
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04.18.23- Christine Lagarde Made 10 Key Points Today and I Agree With All of Them.
Please consider a speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, on Central Banks in a Fragmenting World
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04.17.23- The Fed Is Bankrupt
Barely mentioned, however, was the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed has experienced significant operating losses over the last six months, which have exhausted its existing capital. Those losses represent foregone revenue to the US Treasury. Read More |
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04.15.23- Slavery in America Was Resurrected in 1913
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04.14.23- Fed Minutes Circus:
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04.13.23- Just How High Are Interest Rates?
The consumer price index, a widely followed measure of the costs for goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month against a Dow Jones estimate for 0.2%, and 5% from a year ago versus the estimate of 5.1%. Read More |
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04.12.23- Damn You All!
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04.11.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Cultural Decline of America and the West, and the Ensuing End
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04.10.23- “No Way Out” for Global Markets Trapped in a Doom Loop of Debt
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Why it matters: Potato producers are taking advantage of the fact that the price of eggs was up 55.4% in February compared to a year earlier while potato prices only increased 13.5% year over year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Read More |
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04.07.23- Texas Bill Would Create State-Issued Gold-Backed Digital Currency
Enactment of this legislation would create an option for people to transact business in sound money, set the stage to undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money and create a viable alternative to a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Read More |
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04.06.23- Why the Fed must pivot
The US debt to GDP ratio in 1982 was around 35%. Today it is more than three times higher, at 120%. Read More |
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04.05.23- Fire! Fire Sale of Failed Bank Assets Speeds Plunge of CRE Values
Thanks to Yellen’s catestrophic Too-Low-For-Too-Long (TLFTL) and insane Federal spending, we are seeing the aftermath of The Fed trying to fight inflation. A fire sale of failed bank assets!! Read More |
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04.04.23- Can Civilization Survive without Sound Money?
Sound money, per Ludwig von Mises, has two aspects: It serves as a commonly accepted medium of exchange, while also making it difficult for governments to meddle with it. We can see immediately that sound money is nowhere to be found in today’s world. All the current rhetoric about banks and their systemic risks are about money that’s subject to political expediency, the kind that brings civilization to its knees. Read More |
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04.03.23- China Accelerates
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04.01.23- The Fed Knew
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03.31.23- Please Send Powell This Article
There we cite Mr. Lance Roberts of Real Financial Advice. More from whom: Read More |
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03.30.23- Aftershock!
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03.29.23- A Textbook Case Of Mismanaging Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
“A textbook case of mismanagement” is how the Fed Vice Chair responsible for bank supervision is going to describe SVB when he testifies to Congress today. He will also stress the Fed is prepared to use “all of our tools for any size institution, as needed, to keep the system safe and sound.” Read More |
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03.28.23- Futures Flat As Attention Turns To Fed Rate Hikes
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03.27.23- Is This the Tipping Point?
At an actual party, it’s easy to know when it’s time to say your goodbyes. The hosts turn the music off, start looking at their watches and taking away the snacks. Read More |
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03.25.23- Incompetent Federal Reserve Goofs Again
The goofs think, or pretend to think, that too many Americans are working, making and spending too much money, and causing inflation despite the obvious fact that the rise in prices is due to the lockdowns and sanctions which busted up supply chains and reduced supply. Read More |
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03.24.23- Why the Fed Keeps Getting It Wrong
The Fed assumes so many things about markets that are simply false, like that markets are always efficient, for example. They’re not. Under volatile conditions like these they gap up and down — they don’t move in rational, predictable increments like the “efficient-market hypothesis” supposes. Read More |
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03.23.23- The Fed Proposes A 4th Function Of Money: Means Of Social Control
Docket No. OP - 1670 Please consider Docket No. OP - 1670 on Interbank Settlement of Faster Payments. Read More |
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03.22.23- It Turns Out That Hundreds of Banks Are at Risk
The Washington Post wrote: “If banks were suddenly forced to liquidate their bond and loan portfolios, the losses would erase up to 91 percent of their combined capital cushion.” In other words, we were already right up against the edge. Read More |
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03.21.23- Prepare for governments to push CBDCs in the wake of the
(Article by Tom Parker republished from ReclaimTheNet.org) The heightened fear of bank runs and the growing calls for more government controls to prevent another Silicon Valley Bank-style event has created space for governments to swoop in and present CBDCs as the solution. Read More |
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03.20.23- Washington's Panicked Bailout Of Bank Deposits... Here's What Comes Next
Yet that’s what the entitled herd on Wall Street is loudly demanding. As usual, they want the stock indexes to start going back up after an extended drought and are using the purported “financial crisis” among smaller banks as the pretext. Read More |
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03.18.23- Silicon Valley Bank, Just |
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03.17.23- The Federal Reserve Is the Root Cause of the Banking Crisis
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03.16.23- The Looming Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Tsunami
On Friday, March 10, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed and was taken over by federal regulators. SVB was the 16th largest bank in the country and its bankruptcy was the second largest in U.S. history, following Washington Mutual in 2008. Despite its size, SVB was not a “systemically important financial institution” as defined in the Dodd-Frank Act, which requires insolvent SIFIs to “bail in” the money of their creditors to recapitalize themselves. Read More |
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03.15.23- How The Fed Broke The Banks
The Federal Reserve is in the unenviable position of achieving its mandate by crashing the economy. It's not something it wants to do, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell meekly admitted in his exchange with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) last week. But it's something that happens as an unavoidable outcome of slowing down an economy littered with excess money and inflation. Broad money growth has been negative since late November, and interest rate expenses on everything from corporate borrowing to credit cards to the government's own debt have been rising fast. Read More |
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03.14.23- The Cover-up Begins
Presidents don’t write financial legislation. Financial legislation that the Federal Reserve and the SEC don’t approve doesn’t get passed. A third world immigrant-invader, Ro Khanna, who somehow represents in Congress Silicon Valley says: “Congress must come together to reverse the deregulation policies that were put in place under Trump.” Read More |
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03.13.23- We Are All Counterfeiters Now
—Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein Read More |
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03.11.23- Hard Landing Or Harder One? The Fed May Soon Need To Choose
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03.10.23- Central Bank Digital Currency Is the Endgame – Part 1
Central Bank Digital Currency is the most comprehensive, far-reaching, authoritarian social control mechanism ever devised. Its “interoperability” will enable the CBDCs issued by various national central banks to be networked to form one, centralised global CBDC surveillance and control system. Read More |
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03.09.23- Odds Are Rising That The Fed Will Trigger The Next Bust
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03.08.23- Dear Fed, 'Speak Loudly Because Your Stick Isn't That Big Anymore'
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In fact, it seems that it was a point of discussion at the European Central Bank’s meeting last month, though such concerns were considered premature. When interest rates go from being the most accommodative they have perhaps ever been to a regime where they need to curb the worst bout of inflation in decades, central banks have to make up for lost time. Read More |
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03.06.23- Interest rates: The silent killer
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03.04.23- Is the Golden Age Of 2% Inflation Over?
With that in mind, let’s look into the past to see what a longer period of inflation looks like. The best place to start in the U.S. is to take a brief look at an extraordinarily long period of inflation that took place from the 1970s to the early 1980s. We don’t have to examine every detail, which would take hours, but this summary will suffice: Read More |
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03.03.23- It's Now Impossible To Keep Politics Out Of Central Banks
Years ago, the start of quantitative easing caused a backlash over concerns that the central banks were prioritizing the asset-rich over the average Joe. It raised questions about mandates and the independence of the monetary authority, particularly in Europe where the ECB was the only actor to prevent a fragmentation of the Eurozone. And it even raised questions of ethics, after some of the FOMC members’ trading activitiescame to light. Read More |
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03.02.23- The Best Speech About Money You'll Ever Hear: An Evil System vs Honest Money
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03.01.23- The Forces Upending The Global Economy Cannot Be Reversed
In focusing on geopolitics, we lose sight of the dependence of every economy on a functioning global economy of low-cost goods, services, materials, shipping, transport, capital, labor and financial instruments, all flowing freely across borders and around the world. Read More |
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02.28.23- My Origin Story, The Federal Reserve, and How We Got Here
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02.27.23- Kamikaze Strategies
It’s a bad market strategy to stick to a fundamental view while ignoring a price trend the other way: it’s a kamikaze strategy when that fundamental view doesn’t capture reality. In 2021, inflation was not going to happen: then it rose sharply, but was called “transitory”. In 2022, inflation was not going to soar, nor rates rise: then it did, and rates rose. Read More |
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02.25.23- Powell's Gettysburg Moment, The USDollar's Waterloo, & Today's Open Madness
History Matters Despite the fact that universities even in the Land of Lincoln have had a say in cancelling Abraham Lincoln (good grief…) for apparently not being “woke” enough circa 1861 to be as wise as the neo-liberal faculties of 2023, I’d still make a case that history matters, and by this, I mean all its wonderful and ugly nuances (and lessons), whether they offend modern sensibilities or not. Read More |
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02.24.23- Fed Forced to Choose Between These Two Equally Scary Possibilities
In fairness, the Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell has been raising rates slowly after each meeting (even though they started later than they should’ve). The result of that approach has cooled inflation over the last six months, from 4.5 times over the Fed’s target 2% rate to just 3.2 times higher. Read More |
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02.23.23- Will 7% Mortgages Crush Housing?
But ours was not that kind of market. Central banks around the world had lost their collective minds and money was the cheapest it had ever been - far cheaper than it should or would be in a sane world. Offered 2.75% 30-year mortgages (read, shockingly low monthly payments), home buyers stampeded off the proverbial cliff en masse, paying any price, accepting any terms (no inspection, no problem!) to get houses in hot markets. Read More |
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02.22.23- How The Fed Messes With People's Lives (A Mortgage-Rate Perspective)
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02.21.23- Central Banks, Recession 'Landing' Risks, & Why China Is The Issue To Watch
The market is talking about a no-landing scenario – but should be watching what Central Banks are saying, and China’s position re Ukraine. The market remains vulnerable to recession and rising geopolitical tensions. They are very closely linked. Read More |
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02.20.23- US Treasury 6-Month Yield Back Over 5% (Back To 2007 And The Financial Crisis As The Fed Withdraws Liquidity)
Well, there is one notable difference. The Fed’s balance sheet is still at $8.4 TRILLION whereas it was only $866 billion on August 8, 2007. Read More |
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02.18.23- Treasury Traders Know Fed Has Missed The Boat On A Bigger Move
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02.17.23- The Great Gold Rush: Central Banks in Frenzy
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02.16.23- Fed Raising Its Inflation Target and Other Shenanigans
But before we get into that, we should define our terms. What is the proper way to think of inflation and the Fed itself? Read More |
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02.15.23- "Higher Inflation. Higher Protectionism. Higher Global Tensions...
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02.14.23- Bond Market a Tad Antsy about Inflation Not Just Vanishing? One-Year Yield Nears 5%. Mortgage Rates Back at 6.5%
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02.13.23- Unidentified Flying Inflation
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02.11.23- The Final Chapter of Slavery Hinges on Widespread Implementation
- Agustín Carstens–General Manager, Bank for International Settlements Read More |
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02.10.23- The Yield Curve Would Invert By A Record 450bps If The Fed Hikes To 8%
Balloons blow, and capital won’t flow. ‘US Makes Case That Chinese Balloon was Part of a Spying Program’, says Bloomberg, and “The Chinese spy balloon shot down Saturday included western components with English-language writing on them.” ‘US Aims to Curtail Financial Ties With China’, says the New York Times, with the White House preparing rules to restrict US dollars from flowing there. An inverse CFIUS would stop US investment in areas related to technologies like AI; or with dual civilian-military uses, which is a longer list; or balloons. Read More |
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02.09.23- Two Bears...
I get quite a lot of direct and indirect feedback to the Global Daily. Some of it is positive, some of it is negative - and a lot of that is downright unpleasant, and some of it is ‘eclectic’ - like a detailed analysis of the collapse of the economy of Atlantis. However, yesterday was the first time I was told I was “on cocaine” for arguing higher rates can, in some circumstances, lead to higher inflation. (For more on which, see here.) Read More |
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02.08.23- Central Bank Gold Reserves Chart Second-Highest Increase Since 1950 In 2022
China officially started buying gold again in November and made another large purchase of 30 tons in December. That raised China’s total gold reserves to over 2,000 tons for the first time. Read More |
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02.07.23- Fed Loan Officers Paints Dire Picture: Loan Standards Approaching Record Tightness As Loan Demand Plummets
As Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella observed, "tighter credit likely will drive slower spending, a reduction in risk and the potential for the Fed to pivot sooner rather than later to avoid or shorten a potential recession. That would be more good news for bond bulls." Read More |
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02.06.23- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Looming Emergence of Regional Reserve Currencies
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02.04.23- COVID Stimulus Spending Played 'Sizable Role' in Inflation
Stimulus spending played a "sizable role" in driving inflation to 40-year highs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Read More |
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The Federal Reserve has shed $532 billion in assets since the peak in April, with total assets falling to $8.43 trillion, the lowest since September 2021, according to the weekly balance sheet released today. Compared to the balance sheet a month ago (released January 5), total assets dropped by $74 billion. Quantitative Tightening is starting to make a visible dent: Read More |
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02.02.23- Warning Shot Fired!
I warned my readers a few weeks ago about how the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with giant global banks, has launched a 12-week pilot project to test the message systems and payment processes on the new CBDC dollar. A pilot project is not research and development. That’s already done. The pilot means that what I call “Biden Bucks” are here, and the backers just want to test the plumbing before they roll the system out on the entire population. Read More |
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02.01.23- "Disneyland Is Over" For 'Mickey Mouse' Investors: The Fed Still Has 'The Mother Of All Bombs' To Drop
– Karl Rove Read More |
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01.31.23- The Federal Reserve Is
We’re seeing a Santa Claus rally in stock in January, especially in the speculative momentum stocks. We’ve also seen a rally in the bond market. Peter called it a dead cat bounce. Read More |
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01.30.23- Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
Less clear is whether they will continue to signal "ongoing increases" ahead for the policy rate as evidence mounts that inflation and the economy are both losing momentum. Read More |
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01.28.23- Weekend Rant:
I hear from a lot of people! Here are some of the scenarios they see playing out in the near term. They can’t all be right, but here’s a brief run-down of what many suggest is ahead of us. You may disagree with one or all points, but millions of people believe one of the following scenarios will play out. Read More |
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01.27.23- The Biggest Collapse in M2 Money Supply Since the Great Depression
M1 and M2 numbers are from the Fed, ODL is a derivative of M2, described below. Data for the above chart is from the Fed's H.6 Money Stock Report, released January 24. Read More |
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01.26.23- A Dollar Collapse Is Now in Motion – Saudi Arabia Signals the End of Petro Status
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01.25.23- Gold’s Breakout: It’s Not the Inflation
Gold has really taken off since late October, from below $1,630 to almost $1,930 today. That’s a major move. What’s going on? You might want to argue that it has to do with inflation. The trouble with that argument is that (official) inflation has been coming down for the past few months. Meanwhile, gold seemed to massively underperform with respect to the very serious inflation we saw earlier last year. Read More |
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01.24.23- What does this look like 10 years from now?
He was only in the fourth year of his reign, but Charles was already a very unpopular king. One of his worst habits was frequently abusing his power and taking unilateral executive actions– raising taxes or passing new regulations– which would ordinarily require the approval of parliament. Read More |
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01.23.23- CBDC and the Fed's Plan to Weaponize Money
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01.21.23- The Secret Reason Governments Love Inflation
But when the U.S. government spends beyond its income, that doesn’t happen. It’s a mistake to think about government spending the way we think about our own household spending. The primary difference is a concept known by economists as modern monetary theory (MMT): Read More |
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01.20.23- The Modern State Cannot Exist without Fiat Money
With money on one side of every transaction, the number of relevant prices is reduced, the division of labor expands, and specialization in the stages of production becomes possible. The basic function of money, then, is to facilitate exchange. Contrary to this purpose, the substitution of national paper currencies for commodity money has made trade more difficult. Read More |
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01.19.23- Fed Announcement Has Unexpected Effect on Gold Demand
No Fed U-turn means gold will disappoint… right? Last week’s gold news was, for the most part, how the Federal Reserve didn’t U-turn. It’s sticking to its hawkish monetary-tightening policy with general expectations that it will continue to do so. The subsequent headlines are surprising. Read More |
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01.18.23- The Fed Is a Purely Political Institution, and It's Definitely Not a Bank.
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01.17.23- Powell Answering Questions
At a conference in Sweden, Powell made his case using an appeal to democracy: With independence comes the responsibility to provide the transparency that enables effective oversight by Congress, which, in turn, supports the Fed's democratic legitimacy. Read More |
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01.16.23- "Survive, Then Thrive": One River Digital On The Future Of Ethereum
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01.14.23- Weekend Rant: Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit of Your Wealth?
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the U.S. population is over 334 million. This, no doubt, is a lot of mouths to feed and people to clothe and shelter. But that’s not all. Read More |
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01.13.23- The Great Depression's Patsy
To protect fractional reserve banking and generate a buyer for its debt, the US government created the Federal Reserve System in 1913 and put it in charge of the money supply. From July 1921 to July 1929, the Federal Reserve inflated the money supply by 62 percent, resulting in the crash in late October. The US government, following an aggressive “do something” program for the first time in American history, intervened in numerous ways throughout the 1930s—first under Herbert Hoover, then more heavily under Franklin D. Roosevelt. Read More |
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01.12.23- Schiff: Is "Cooling" CPI Setting The Stage For More Inflation?
And a deeper look at the data reveals that a lot of inflationary pressure remains despite the optimistic headlines. Read More |
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01.11.23- What if the "Black Swan" of 2023 Is the Fed Succeeds?
What if the "Black Swan" of 2023 is the Federal Reserve succeeds? Two stipulations here: 1. "Black Swan" is in quotes because the common usage has widened to include events that don't match Nassim Taleb's original criteria / definition of black swan; the term now includes events considered unlikely or that are off the radar screens of both the media and the alt-media. Read More |
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01.10.23- Here's The Truth About
Now, if this chart showed the stock price of a company, would you want to invest in it? If it’s the price of a commodity, would you be a buyer? Read More |
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01.09.23- Has the Federal Reserve
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01.07.23- How FedGov Destroyed
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01.06.23- Why the Threat of Deflation is Real
First, the definitions of inflation and deflation go beyond commonly accepted meanings. As Robert Prechter’s Last Chance to Conquer the Crash says: Inflation is an increase in the total amount of money and credit, and deflation is a decrease in the total amount of money and credit. … Read More |
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01.05.23- Central Banks Finally Own Up to the Crisis They Created
When is recession going to strike? When will the Fed reverse course on tightening? Read More |
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01.04.23- Is There A Way To Stop Inflation Without Crushing The Economy
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01.03.23- The Fed needs to jack rates up
This is nuts, we thought there was a crash? If you thought that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the Nasdaq’s subsequent 33 per cent puke in 2022 were enough to finally kill the tragicomically engorged late-stage private market tech bubble . . . Read More |
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01.02.23- Is QE returning by stealth?
It has been a bleak year for many investors. Global investors have lost $23tn of wealth in housing and financial assets so far in 2022, according to my estimates. That is equivalent to 22 per cent of global gross domestic product and uncomfortably exceeds the lesser $18tn of losses suffered in the 2008 financial crisis. Read More |
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US fiscal policy is increasingly infringing upon the Federal Reserve’s independence, heightening already elevated secular inflation risks and condemning the dollar to an even deeper debasement in its value...
The yield on the all-important 10-Year U.S. Treasury is spiking again. As I write this, it’s about to take out its former highs.
Inflation in the United States has fallen from its elevated levels a couple of years ago, although not quite all the way to the Federal Reserve’s target average rate of two percent per year. The Federal Reserve has been raising the federal funds rate progressively since early 2020 to lower inflation. It is well known that these increases affect the economy and inflation only over time. The effects of these increases still are playing out. 
There’s a move afoot to prohibit a central bank digital dollar from ever being issued by the Fed – without “authorization” that is – according to this article shared by E.G.(with our thanks):
We recently wrote 
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday left the target policy interest rate (the federal funds rate) unchanged at 5.5 percent. This "pause" in the target rate suggests the FOMC believes it has raised the target rate high enough to rein in price inflation which has run well above the Fed's arbitrary two-percent inflation target since mid-2021. 
In a world full of unimaginable absurdity, we spend a lot of time thinking about the future… and to where all of this insanity leads.
The FOMC met Wednesday and Thursday.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold its federal funds rate target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent on Wednesday. However, FOMC members also signaled that another rate hike is likely in the fourth quarter of this year.
The US recession is merely delayed, not canceled. The soft-landing narrative is a myth.
The Federal Reserve has officially reported a loss of $57 billion for the first six months of 2023. Quite a number! So the “
When the Fed 
In July of last year as the hype surrounding the covid pandemic was finally dying out 
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Nino’s Corner with David Nino Rodriguez to talk about the trajectory of the economy. Peter explained why the dollar is doomed to crash and what we can do to prepare. He also emphasized that the powers that be have managed to kick the can down the road for a lot longer than he expected. 
At the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, participants came to a rather disturbing economic realization.
In July of last year as the hype surrounding the Covid pandemic was finally dying out, I came across a video promoting a barely publicized project called the “Council for Inclusive Capitalism.” The group, headed by Lynn Forester de Rothschild, is the culmination of decades of various globalist agendas combined to represent the ultimate proof of conspiracy.
The price of 
When the first shot rang out at Dealey Plaza on November 22, 1963, most bystanders didn’t even realize that it was the sound of gunfire.
Gold is no different than any other asset class: it becomes popular, rises in price, is overvalued, and ultimately represents a poor investment. Other times, it undergoes periods of investor disinterest, suffers sustained price declines, becomes undervalued, and ultimately represents an excellent investment.
One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – rose 4.2% YoY in July (as expected but higher than June’s +4.1%). Headline PCE jumped up to +3.3% YoY (also as expected) – the biggest jump in YoY prints since June 2022… 
For years we have both warned investors about the consequences of a system based on unlimited money printing, debt creation and money debasement.
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week promises to give stocks a boost. But it’s likely to be short lived as the liquidity outlook soon worsens.
In their inaugural day 'family photo', BRICS leaders posed without Russia's President Putin, as FM Lavrov took his place given the ICC arrest warrant and Rome Statute would require the South African government to seek his arrest. 
Most people now seem to think the Federal Reserve can beat price inflation and guide the economy to a soft landing. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explains why most people are wrong. The Fed is actually in a no-win situation. And if the Fed can’t win, gold can’t lose.
Financial commentators marvel how the Fed has been able to increase the fed funds rate from 0% to 5.3% without a major financial accident (other than the failure of a few regional banks).
In what is now a ten-year-old interview, Jim Rickards shocked his audience. Sadly, his controversial views then might be considered good news today…
Among the many alarming revelations from the "Facebook Files" is the discovery of a strange official policy that dominated the platform in the COVID-19 years.
I’ve long been critical of the Federal Reserve – in fact, I wrote a book called 
From a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. today has never been weaker than since the post-Vietnam era.
The Fed has two mandates – Maximum Employment and Price Stability
The first portion of this piece, pertaining to personal experience with a political dissident is written entirely by Andy Sutton. The rest of the report is co-authored as is the case with much of the recent 'My Two Cents' work.
Created by the Federal Reserve, the 
International Man:
Money supply growth fell again in June, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. June's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. 
Last week, 
As debt downgrade concerns push up bond yields, metals markets are facing selling pressure.
At a press conference early 2023, member of the Executive Board of the German central bank Joachim Wuermeling made clear that the soundness of the central bank’s balance sheet, in light of general losses, is guaranteed by the bank’s gold revaluation account. Wuermeling’s testimony implies the bank is willing to use its gold revaluation account to cover losses.
The US economy was pushed to extremes during the pandemic recession and subsequent recovery. The 
In today’s lead article, Jesse Felder decries the numerous stories in recent financial headlines written by analysts who are inhaling the “soft landing” narcotics that have floated the recent stock rally, and he notes how this euphoric disconnect from the harsher realities below happen before all major market crashes during deep recessions:
The Fed raised interest rates again last week. But that’s the past. What does the future look like?
The Federal Reserve– the most critically important central bank in the world– is completely, hopelessly insolvent.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government posted a $225 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. This means, the first nine months of fiscal 2023 showed a deficit of $1.4 trillion, which is up 171% from the amount seen during the first nine months of fiscal ’22. Debt service payments are the fastest growing part of the deficit. Interest payments over the last nine months reached $652 billion, and are projected to grow by 39% from fiscal 2022. Interestingly, revenues fell 11% in the comparative period, which begs the question; if the economy is really growing, then why are tax revenues shrinking? The answer is, all we are actually measuring is nominal growth due to inflation…there is no real growth at all.
After the most recent FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell issued an official statement explaining the decision to raise interest rates another quarter-point.
Interventionists always blame inflation on everything and anything except the only thing that makes aggregate prices rise: Issuing more units of currency than the real demand. Seller inflation is the same excuse and fallacy as cost-push inflation. A way to confuse citizens and assign causation to something that cannot make aggregate prices rise. 
The currency wars are alive and well. Here’s the latest battle…
We’ve written 
The Federal Reserve launched its FedNow instant-payments service Thursday, following several years of developing a system officials say will allow the faster flow of cash for businesses and individuals.
Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?
Following the government’s panicked response to the Covid pandemic, the resulting economic devastation and 
Investors are keen to declare victory for the Federal Reserve in the war on inflation. But the June CPI data is only encouraging for bond bulls if you look at the world in a vacuum.
In some ways it has been like two heavyweight sluggers battling it out over the course of an extended bout,exchanging one haymaker after another. With each monstrous blow, the receiver is staggered temporarily only to reform and then unleash one of his own. Back and forth, back and forth until such time a winner will be declared - and we all lose.
The latest 
I had this exact discussion at a family graduation party on Saturday. My brother-in-law and I were talking about all the woke bullshit they have been jamming down our throats and we eventually got around to taxes. I then launched into a tirade against taxes and the government that enforces them at the point of a gun. I told him everyone kept 100% of their earnings up until 1913 and the country had been able to grow and prosper up until that time without an income tax. He then said what the regime media and the government has drilled into the minds of the masses – “but who would build and maintain the roads and infrastructure of the country?”. 
On August 4, 1964, two US Navy destroyers were conducting intelligence patrols in the Gulf of Tonkin off the coast of Vietnam, when the task force commander grabbed the radio and reported that they were under attack by three North Vietnamese torpedo boats.
Yesterday’s data releases gave markets little reason to revisit the narrative from Wednesday’s 
International Man:
This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Mike Maloney goes deep into the inflation issue, a Great Economic Reset, and Indian households have more physical gold than any single central bank.
July 4 is upon us, and many Americans are excited to celebrate their so-called independence. 
This week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual testimony to Congress. A main feature of the discussion was the status of rate hikes and the fight against inflation.
The U.S. economy has been saved time and again over the past two decades by this one weird trick:
We tend to focus a lot on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while the central bank’s balance sheet stays in the background. But the balance sheet arguably has more impact on the economy over the long run.
If there’s ever been a thing that could end America, it’s this climate change lunacy that seems to have wormed its way into the brains of all the fools of the country, which are surprising large in number, and just enough to give the Biden regime its justification for pursuing national suicide in this manner. 
In a leak to The Wall Street Journal earlier this month, the Federal Reserve no doubt believed they were adding clarity to the market situation. But in true Fed tradition, all they did was add confusion that will trouble markets for months to come, if not longer. Let’s untangle the Fed’s latest web of miscommunication… 
Stagflation is much more likely than Deflation 
I recently gained two important insights about the Fed and markets. Taken separately, either one would have been significant. Then I realized the separate insights were actually connected at a deep level.
At their 
Scrape away the hand-wringing about interest rates and we find a bedrock of complacency. Nobody seems to doubt that the status quo can grind on for another 30 years doing the same stuff it’s done for the past 30 years.
The failure of 
What’s the situation with the economy? The short answer is not good. Here’s why…
According to this week’s Commerce Department report, U.S. GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent during Q1 2023. The experts thought GDP would grow by 2 percent. They were wrong.
We are nearing the time in early summer when the entertainment industry rolls out its new blockbusters and flops. June is also that time when the Fed had said it will roll-out its own special feature (and likely future flop) — the platform that will be used as part of its eventual central bank digital currency (CBDC). 
I think we need to thank Joe Biden. Really, I do! And the reason why is he’s nominating people for important federal positions and the federal judiciary that are absolutely unqualified, and in many cases, to put it kindly, strange, and the Democrats are approving them. He
Right now, financial institutions all over America are getting really tight with their money. That means that less credit will be available for consumers and businesses, and that will mean less economic activity in the months ahead. When economic activity slows down, more businesses fail, more layoffs happen, and more consumers start defaulting on their debts. Of course if economic conditions steadily deteriorate it will cause financial institutions to get even more stingy with their money. It appears that a vicious cycle has now started, and I believe that this will be one of the biggest stories of the next 6 months. 
Just as Jews claim exclusivity as holocaust victims of WW II despite that more Germans died and many times more Russians died and it was a holocaust experience for a number of ethnicities, black Americans claim to be the only victims of slavery despite the historical fact that all races have been enslaved usually by their own kind. Black slavery, for example originated in slave wars between African tribes. 
As long as states are around, money will never be sound. But first, some clarity.
Ellen Brown’s analysis of derivatives is one of the most intelligent articles we’ve read about the financial system since banks started blowing up. She’s nailed the biggest risk. From Brown at 
If the Fed succeeding is a "Black Swan," bring it on. 
