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04.23.18- "Ice Nine" Comes to China
Today’s $100 bill is only worth 10 cents on the dollar compared with the $100 bill of 1969. Europe will abolish the 500 euro this year. We all recall what happened in India in late 2016 when India abolished the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes (worth about $10 and $20, respectively); there was mass chaos as peasants lined up to turn in the old notes for digital credit. Read More |
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04.21.18- Inflationary Reality vs. The Efforts of the Fed to Manage Expectations
Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term 'inflation' to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. Read More |
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04.20.18- Now Even a Fed Dove Homes in on the “Everything Bubble”
“If we have learned anything from the past, it is that we must be especially vigilant about the health of our financial system in good times, when potential vulnerabilities may be building,” explained Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard in a speech in Washington, D.C., this morning. This was a reference to a time-honored banker adage, now mostly forgotten after nearly nine years of easy money: Bad deals are made in good times. Read More |
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04.19.18- Danielle Dimartino Booth on the $240 Trillion Global Debt Bomb
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04.18.18- It’s Been a Good Run: 70 Years of Dollar Dominance Draws to a Close
It’s a long game, to be sure. As gold hoards are amassed and repatriated, as the petro-yuan becomes a more widely accepted form of petro-commerce, as the greenback is printed into oblivion and obscurity, US paper fiat currency is losing both its prominence, status, and power both within and without American borders. If the gold standard were to be reinstated, control of the dollar would revert to free market forces instead of the whim of the Federal Reserve. It would mean that each dollar would have its equivalent in gold, as it did prior to 1913. Read More |
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04.17.18- There Is No ‘Patriotic Duty’
Aside from a single episode in 1894, there would be no income tax in the United States of America for nearly 40 years. It was during this period that the United States emerged as the largest, most powerful economy in the world. And the country achieved this with no income tax. No inflation. And very little public debt. Today it’s entirely different. The dollar has lost over 99% of its value since 1913. Read More |
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04.16.18- Why Trade Wars Will
Trade wars also escalate geopolitical tensions and economic hardships the world over. They have in the past. When the U.S. imposed tariffs in the 1930’s to try to relieve the Great Depression at home, they achieved the opposite effect. Read More |
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To get around the obstacle of public opinion, governments have an extensive history of lying their way into war. This is hard to believe for people who think that government has their best interest in mind, but it is something that rulers have been doing since the beginning of time. In the modern United States, people are led to believe that the establishment accidentally flounders its way into war. Read More |
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04.13.18- Ron Paul: Assad Gassing His Own People is “Total Nonsense”
“An incident will occur and somebody will get blamed and it’s usually a false flag,” said Paul. “Right now, recently, it’s all been in Syria, ‘Assad did it! Assad did it!’” explained the former congressman. “No proof at all.” Read More |
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04.12.18- The Fed is Officially Screwed: Inflation's Over 2% Despite 6 Rate Hikes
The single biggest concern for the Fed is inflation. The reason for this is that US Treasuries are currently in a massive bubble. And those Treasury yields trade based on inflation. If inflation rises, so do Treasury yields. If Treasury yields rise, Treasury prices fall. If Treasury prices fall, the bond bubble begins to burst. Read More |
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04.11.18- Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky
That is to say, Trump's new Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, amounts to Janet Yellen in trousers and tie. In fact, you can make it a three-part composite by adding Bernanke with a full head of hair and Greenspan sans the mumble. Read More |
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04.10.18- Ayn Rand’s Hymn To Money
Millions of people who have read Ayn Rand’s 1957 monumental work “Atlas Shrugged” must have been impressed by an insert that could be entitled “Hymn to Money”. This insert is buried in the 1600 pages of the novel and is difficult to find. However, it is a self-contained literary masterpiece in its own right. For these reasons it may be a good idea to publish it separately. Read More |
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04.09.18- Inflation Alert: Prepare For The Coming Price Spikes BEFORE Costs Are Passed On
The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011. Why does this matter? Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming. Read More |
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04.07.18- Weekend Rant: The Central Bank Effect - The Best Friend of The One Percent
The Federal Reserve has almost limitless power to print paper money, extend credit and create debt, thus creating the illusion of prosperity where none exists. At one time, hard work could provide a secure future for generations. Now, a person is fortunate if hard work can help them get through the day. Read More |
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04.06.18- Futures Tumble Amid Tariff, Payrolls, Powell Chaos
Until 6pm, the answer was the latter, however with one announcement Trump flipped everything on its head, and just as the president called for an additional $100 billion in Chinese tariffs, futures tumbled, with Dow futs plunging over 400 points as escalating trade war with China was back front and center. Read More |
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04.05.18- The First Wave of Inflation is Already Here… The Next One is the Bad One
Why does this matter? Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming. You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages. The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms. Read More |
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04.04.18- From the Leader of the Free World to Banana Republic: Fiat Debt 101
If you go to the hospital and they give you morphine once so that you don't have to feel short-term, significant pain, fine. Taking morphine for the next 10 consecutive years because it's just easier that way? Not so fine. Read More |
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04.03.18- How The Federal Reserve Drives The Economy
This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation. To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us? That question might be better answered by asking where they/we have been. And not just since last month or last quarter. Read More |
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04.02.18- Fed mistakes could spark ‘unusually fast’ bear market, ‘lost decade’ for stocks
Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economic outlook had strengthened, but he painted a mixed picture about what policy might look like going forward. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates but indicated it would only do a total of three rate hikes in 2018, which some saw as a dovish signal given that a number of investors had expected four this year. However, the Fed pushed up its expected rate path in 2019 and 2020. Read More |
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03.31.18- Why Do Media Idiots Love Stormy Daniels But Ignore a Totally Rigged
QTR digs into why consensual sex by two people that lack moral compasses in the year 2006 is in any way worth reporting on and confirms the existence of the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, explaining the executive order that put the group in place during the Reagan administration. Read More |
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03.30.18- Central banks manipulating & suppressing gold prices
n fact, gold is a special case. Gold to central bankers is like the sun to vampires. They are terrified of it, yet in some ways they are in awe of it. Terrified since gold is an inflation barometer and an indicator of the relative strength of fiat currencies. The gold price influences interest rates and bond prices. Read More |
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03.29.18- The Real Reason Why Stock Markets Will Continue To Crumble This Year
When it comes to the economy, most people are lost. Read More |
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03.28.18- Who Needs Wall Street When You Can Have A Monetary Unicorn?
We got to ruminating about those core propositions when we read that San Francisco Fed head, John Williams, may be headed toward the true #2 job at the Fed. That is, President of the New York Fed----the joint that actually runs the casinos domiciled in the canyons of Wall Street. Read More |
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03.27.18- The Fake Recovery: Risk Asset Price Increases Have Been Simple Inflation
There is a relatively fixed universe of stocks to buy in the US. The Wilshire 5000 is made up of almost every single nationally listed, SEC-reporting company on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq, and is comprised of about 6,700 individual companies. For the vast majority of American stock investors, institutional and retail alike, that’s where their investment money is going to go. And when the Fed creates an investment universe in which banks are simply awash in ZIRP cash, a lot of that money is going end up bidding up this relatively limited pool of equities. Read More |
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03.26.18- What Fed Chair Powell Forgot To Mention
What are the chances of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being wrong? The chances he’ll be wrong on the economy’s growth prospects, the direction of the federal funds rate, and inflation itself? Our guess is his chances of being wrong are quite high. The new central planner-in-chief. Central banks are facing a special case of the socialist calculation problem pertaining to the financial system. Like the comrades in the former Eastern Bloc, who tried to adjust their plans based on prices they were able to observe in the capitalist West, their best bet is to simply follow market rates. Unfortunately market rates – especially at the short end of the yield curve – are subject to an observer-participant feedback loop with the Fed. Read More |
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03.24.18- From Zero Interest-Rate Policy to Zero Options Left: Prepare for Chaos
In this way, equilibrium is maintained. If, via dint of central bankery, such pain is delayed, it simply accumulates. A decade of manipulated prosperity has resulted in a largely anesthetized market that has forgotten what true pain feels like. There will be no controlling the pain when the dam breaks and system collapses. Investments in risk assets will be eviscerated across the board. In such an environment, the flight to safety into silver and gold will likely drive unprecedented price appreciation. Read More |
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03.23.18- When Powell Does It, It’s Policy;
That said, even small-scale trader behavior and tactics can bleed over from “aggressive and creative” to illegal pretty easily by the letter of regulatory law. To see central banks loudly and proudly and openly boasting of their market manipulations, which have drastic impact on not just market participants but on all citizens (often while cloaking themselves in the fraudulent fabric of ‘public service’) is repugnant. Read More |
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03.22.18- The Central Bank Bubble: It Will Be Ugly
Central Banks over the last decade simply created credit out of thin air. Snap a finger, and credit magically appears. Only central banks can perform this type of credit magic. It’s called printing money and they have gone on the record saying they are magic people. Read More |
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03.21.18- What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
First FOMC meeting under Powell as Chair Do you remember your first bike ride? Or the first date – and kiss? People often fear doing something new. It’s normal. We are status quo creatures. We are afraid of changes. They are risky. Particularly in monetary policy. Indeed, we like technical innovations, but we prefer predictable and conservative banks, don’t we? Read More |
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03.20.18- Fed Day: Mr. Market Meets Mr. Hyde
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03.19.18- Will Rising Interest Rates
There are typically two sides to the debate on the impact of gold from the change in interest rates. There are those who see rising interest rates as good for gold, and there are those that see rising interest rates as harmful to the price of gold. But who is right? We look to see which side is correct? Could they both be wrong? Or both are right? Read More |
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03.17.18- Weekend Rant: The recycling of the US dollars financing the US deficits is going to end
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03.16.18- The Fed Has Its Finger On The Button Of A Nuclear Debt Bomb
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03.15.18- Shooting Ourselves In the Foot
Serious problems affect Americans. Problems first, solutions at the end!We did what to ourselves? Our representatives, senators, and Presidents, supposedly acting on our behalf, voted for and created what history has shown are huge monetary and fiscal mistakes. Some will disagree, but consider this partial list: Read More |
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03.14.18- Will Inflation Burst the Everything Bubble?
In the last 24 hours we’ve seen:
The markets have already taken note, with inflationary assets exploding out of downtrends and entering raging bull markets. Read More |
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03.13.18- Cash vs. Gold vs. Inflation: Would You Prefer $2,000 or $4,900,000?
Inflation = Game, Set, Match: Gold. Fears of rising inflation will push the gold price higher. Gold has plenty of room to run up to the top end of its range, near $1,360. If it breaks above that ceiling and heads higher, it won’t take much to test $1,400. Read More |
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03.12.18- Super-Duper-Irrational Exuberance, Report 11 Mar 2018
Anyway, Greenspan cut interest rates a few times in late 1998. Technology companies were able to raise $5 million or more with just a sketch on a napkin (“serviette” for those outside the US). Companies at a “later stage”, though without revenues, could raise $30 million. A company called “Webvan” was able to raise nearly a billion dollars without ever becoming profitable. Read More |
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03.10.18- Central Bankers Never Get it Right
Why should we ever listen to any of these self-important central bankers. They are consistently inaccurate in their forecasts and policies. Their timing is always wrong as they are always behind the curve. More importantly they are distorting the natural economic cycles by artificial manipulation of markets and thereby creating booms and busts of an enormous magnitude. Central banks and bankers should not exist. They fulfil no purpose and the world economy would function so much better without them. Read More |
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03.09.18- New Fed Chairman Hints at Big Policy Change That Could Crush Markets
On February 5th, Jerome Powell was sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. The next day, in his first testimony before Congress, he hinted that some big changes were on his mind. However, when you’re the head of the world’s most powerful central banking system, making major policy changes can have serious consequences. Read More |
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03.08.18- MOPE; The Government
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03.07.18- Is Jerome Powell About to End the Famed
That something is the famed “Fed put” or the idea that the Fed would immediately move to prop up stocks any time they began to fall. Jerome Powell was sworn in as Fed Chair on February 5th 2018. At that time, the market was in the sharp sell-off annotated in the chart below: Read More |
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03.06.18- Are Subprime Debt Slaves, a Leading Indicator, Worrying the Fed?
The new Fed remains a somewhat unknown quantity: There are still four vacancies on the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors that forms the core of the policy-making FOMC. The new Chairman, Jerome Powell, has already shown in his testimony before Congress last week that he may use a little more straight talk than his predecessors, and the markets took notice. No one knows for sure what this new Fed will look like once the four vacancies are filled. But this new Fed will likely try to push interest rates back to a somewhat more normal level and lighten their balance sheet so that they have some options when the business cycle trips over balled-up credit problems. Read More |
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03.05.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Now, a Trade War -
Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there is either systemic reform or systemic collapse. The conditions that give rise to currency wars are too much debt and too little growth. In those circumstances, countries try to steal growth from trading partners by cheapening their currencies to promote exports and create export-related jobs. Read More |
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03.03.18- Rising Economic Head Winds
Remember the “fiscal cliff” drama of Dec. 31, 2012, when Congress raised taxes and cut spending to avoid a debt default and government shutdown? Remember the actual government shutdown in October 2013 as Republicans held the line against more government spending? Well, congratulations if you do, because everyone else seems to have forgotten. Read More |
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03.02.18- An Apocalyptic Paul Tudor Jones Warns The Fed Is About To Lose Control
Joining such luminaries as Bill Gross and Ray Dalio, who have both claimed the bull market in bonds is over, PTJ joins the choir and warns that "markets disciplined Greece for its budget transgressions. Read More |
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03.01.18- The Latest in a Long Line: The USD’s Inevitable Fiat-Currency Failure
Fiat currencies have been tried again and again and again and again throughout history, and they always fail. But because the vast majority of Americans can’t remember a time when America didn’t seem like the immortal ruler of the world, they simply can’t imagine a state of reality where that is not the case. Read More |
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02.28.18- Lemonade Stand Economics
“Dad, I’m excited and ready for business. Mom made me sign an IOU when she gave me sugar and frozen lemonade so I have stuff to sell.” Timmy looked up at his father and smiled in anticipation. “Great job! This’ll be a learning experience. Here comes your first customer.” James, his father, wanted to be helpful, but expected Timmy to interact with customers. A retired gentleman pushed his walker toward the lemonade stand and said, “Hi little fellow, I want a cup of that lemonade.” Read More |
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02.27.18- "Money For Nothin'...
Now look at them yo-yo’s that’s the way you do it After 9 years of artificial liquidity drenching markets the same game continues in 2018: It’s raining money. Again. Still. Read More |
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02.26.27.18-.18- The Dirty Work Is Already Done,
Yet across the planet, folks high and low are already telling him exactly how he should do his job. What’s more, they’re passing advanced judgement on things that may or may not happen. For example, the South China Morning Post recently offered the following opinion: Read More |
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02.24.18- An Insider’s Insider to Advise the Fed
We had an event like that last week. The most important financial story I have read in a long time went completely unnoticed. It was not reported in the mainstream media. You will not hear it discussed anywhere, you will not see it reported anywhere. Read More |
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02.23.18- The End of (Artificial) Stability
There is nothing natural about the stability of the past 9 years. The bullish trends in risk assets are artificial constructs of central bank/state policies. As these policies are reduced or lose their effectiveness, the era of artificial stability is coming to a close. The 9-year run of Bull-trend stability is ending as a result of a confluence of macro dynamics: Read More |
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02.22.18- Trump’s New Dark Money Man Takes Over
While attempting to lock in her record, Yellen urged, “There’s less to lose sleep about now than has been true for quite some time.” Well, a lot of people lost sleep these past few days. And they might lose more sleep in the days to come. Markets were due for a correction. Whether it turns out to be something worse, time will tell. Read More |
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02.21.18- The Fed’s “Catch 22”
Money and credit creation in excess of wealth output causes currency devaluation. It is this currency devaluation that arises from money and credit printing that causes “price inflation.” More money (and credit) chasing a relatively less amount of “goods.” Read More |
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02.20.18- The Federal Government Can’t Account for $21 Trillion. Does Anybody Care?
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02.19.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Matrix Revealed -
Major institutions on this planet that control Military, Money, Energy, Government, Medical, Corporate, Media, and Education are becoming, more and more, global cartels, horizontally integrated across national borders. Read More |
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02.17.18- The Worst Threat We Face
Last week, volatility made a long-overdue return to the US and global equitymarkets. It began with a 2-day back-to-back violent drop. Day 3 saw a big rebound, swiftly followed by two more days of gut-wrentching losses. And then finally, last Friday, the day saw massive swings both high and low, ending with a huge upside run. Read More |
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02.16.18- New Fed Chairman Will Trigger A Historic Stock Market Crash In 2018
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02.15.18- Do Financial Markets Still Exist?
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02.14.18- This May Be The Beginning Of The Great Financial Reckoning
And the numbers are pretty gruesome. In order to plug the gaps from its soaring deficits, the Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year. Then nearly $1.1 trillion next fiscal year. And up to $1.3 trillion the year after that. Read More |
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02.13.18- Danielle DiMartino Booth: Don't Count On The Powell Fed To Rescue The Markets
The recent gut-wrenching drop in asset prices began on the first day of the job for new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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02.12.18- The Fed’s Impossible Choice In Just Three Charts
Wage inflation is acceleratin Normally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hires more generously. This ignites “wage inflation,” which is one of the signals central banks use to decide when to start raising interest rates. Read More |
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02.10.18- The Spark That Lights the Wick: Velocity of Money to Ignite Inflation
The velocity of money measures the turnover of dollars, how often they are spent, and then spent again by their recipients, over a certain period of time. It has been falling, more or less on a line, since 2008. Read More |
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02.09.18- Global Synchronized Bond Collapse
However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating. Read More |
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02.08.18- Trump’s New Dark Money Man Takes Over
While attempting to lock in her record, Yellen urged, “There’s less to lose sleep about now than has been true for quite some time.” Well, a lot of people lost sleep these past few days. And they might lose more sleep in the days to come. Markets were due for a correction. Whether it turns out to be something worse, time will tell. Read More |
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02.07.28- What The Crypto Crash & Stock Market Plunge Have In Common
Also having a rough start to the week is anyone with a long stock position or a cryptocurrency portfolio. The Dow Jones closed down over 1,200 points today, building off of Friday's plunge of 666 points. The relentless ascension of stock prices has suddenly jolted into reverse, delivering the biggest 2-day drop stocks have seen in years. Read More |
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02.06.18- Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten
Needless to say, both ends of the Acela Corridor are completely oblivious to these twin menaces. Indeed, they are the proverbial elephants in the room, thereby giving rise to a considerable irony: To wit, the GOP party of the elephant, which is supposed to be the palladium of financial rectitude in American politics, has forgotten about them completely. Read More |
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02.05.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What the FISA Memo Reveals about the FBI, DNC, GOP–and the sketchy timeline
In fact, the contents of the memo should be disturbing to everyone. But Bill Binney, Thomas Drake, and Edward Snowden revealed much worse. Americans are desensitized to immense abuses of their rights. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Clinton Campaign paid Christopher Steele $160,000 to dig up information on Trump team members including Carter Page. Steele also provided this information to the FBI. Read More |
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02.03.18- Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply
The Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending January 31, released this afternoon, completes the fourth month of QE-unwind. And it’s starting to be a doozie. This “balance sheet normalization” impacts two types of assets: Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities (MBS) that the Fed acquired during the years of QE and maintained afterwards. Read More |
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02.02.18- Yellen Starts Work At Brookings Institution On Monday
Fed watchers will recall that shortly after he departed the Fed to make way for Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke first joined the Brookings Institution in DC (before also joining PIMCO and Citadel as an advisor), where he became blogger emeritus. Fast forward a little over three years, when deja vu has hit, and as Steve Liesman reported moments ago, Janet Yellen - who is still technically employed by the Fed until this weekend - will begin work Monday morning as a distinguished fellow at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC Read More |
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02.01.18- The Dollar Breakdown:
This event may signal the most important trend of 2018: the breakdown of the dollar. Read More |
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01.31.18- Big Little Lies by Central Bankers
Just in the past 24 hours we got a heap of communications that can be considered cringeworthy at best, highly disingenuous more likely. But it all fits with a script that has been unfolding for years. After all central bank intervention was supposed to be an emergency driven policy to re-inflate a global economy and help financial institutions at the brink of collapse back to solvency and health. The big little lie: Central banks would nurse economies back to health and then normalize their policies and unwind their balance sheets. Truth: It’s never going to happen. Read More |
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01.30.18- We’re Getting A Stock Market Correction (At Best) Or A Crash (At Worst)
My firm was Greenwich Capital Markets, one of a select group of “primary dealers” allowed to transact directly with the Federal Reserve. Monetary policy is conducted through open-market operations run by a trading desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Read More |
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01.29.18- The Fed Will Ignite The Next “Financial Crisis”
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01.27.18- Beware These Mischievous Actions Behind the Fed’s Curtain
It’s almost like they can’t make up their mind when it comes to monetary policy. On one hand, they’re raising interest rates, but are also leaving the 2018 policy outlook unchanged. And on the other hand, in spite of the evidence I’ll point to in a second, they’re still talking about “negative” interest rates over at the St. Louis Fed: Read More |
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01.26.18- Fed Nominee Marvin Goodfriend Lied to the Senate about Taxing Cash
Unfortunately this issue that would directly impact every single American wasn’t brought up until well over an hour into this testimony. It was then that Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto asked Mr. Goodfriend about his past advocacy on “taxing currency” and whether he would support such a policy today. Read More |
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01.25.18- Real Estate to be Torpedoed in 2018?
But since then, home prices have skyrocketed to new highs thanks to federally sponsored low-interest mortgages. In fact, home prices have risen so much, so fast that Americans have all but forgotten the Great Recession and foreclosure crisis of 2008/2009. Read More |
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01.24.18- No Sugar High from Tax Cut Unless the Fed and Banking System Provide the Sugar
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01.23.18- "The Dollar Will Be Destroyed By Its Own Government"
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01.22.18- Is The Federal Reserve Really Thinking About Negative Interest Rates?!
It’s almost so incredible that were it not published on the Fed’s own St. Louis branch website, it might be hard to believe it’s true. But apparently St. Louis Federal Reserve economist Yi Wen disagrees with the projected Fed mantra that it’s time to raise interest rates. Because he actually just wrote an essay explaining what negative interest rates are, and how it could be a perfect next move for the Fed. Read More |
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01.20.18- A Shocking Admission: “The Federal Reserve is a Criminal Conspiracy”
In an extraordinary admission, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve conceded that the Federal Reserve is “at heart a criminal conspiracy of bankers.” The Board followed up this revelation with a breezy confession that the Fed “doesn’t really give a rat’s rear-end about the American people, and we’re tired of having to claim we do.” Read More |
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01.19.18- The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One
And if you look at the stock and asset markets, as Donald Trump tends to do (and as Barack Obama did, too), you’d think all is fine with the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24% last year. The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index rose 6.20%. The price of one bitcoin rose about 1,646%. And so far 2018 has been more of the same. On the flip side of that euphoria however, is the fact that the median wage rose just 2.4% last year and has remained effectively stagnant relative to inflation. And although the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%, its lowest level in nearly four decades.Read More |
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01.18.18- If Interest Rates Spike, Here's Who Will Be Hurt The Most
And while the financial sector is poised to benefit from this increase, although not if the curve flattens and eventually inverts, something which would unleash havoc among the banks, there are many parts of the US economy that will be unequivocally and negatively impacted from the rise in interest rates. Among them are housing, business investment and, of course, consumer spending: with credit card already at record highs, increase in the APR will crush America's purchasing power. Read More |
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01.17.18- Albert Edwards: The Trigger For The Next Market Correction
Edwards is the global strategist for Societe Generale and is based in London. He spoke at his firm’s annual investment conference in London on July 9. A copy of his slides, as well as those from his colleague Andrew Lapthorne’s presentation, can be found below. Read More |
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01.16.18- As the Controlled Inflation Scheme
On Monday the Federal Reserve released its latest report of consumer credit outstanding. According to the Fed’s bean counters, U.S. consumers racked up $28 billion in November in new credit card debt and in new student, auto, and other non-mortgage loans. This amounted to an 8.8 percent increase in consumer borrowing. It also ran total outstanding consumer debt up to $3.83 trillion. Read More |
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01.15.18- Drowning In The Money River
It's a big club and you ain't in it. ~ George Carlin If you suspect society is unfair, that there's a different set of rules the rich live by, you're right. I've had ample chance to witness first-hand evidence of this in my time working on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley. Simply put: our highly financialized economy is gamed to enrich those who run it, at the expense of everybody else. The Money River A recent experience really drove this home for me. Read More |
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01.13.18- Social Change Will Upend the Status Quo
The core narrative of the Status Quo is that nothing fundamental needs to be changed: all the problems can be solved with more "free money" (borrowed from the future at low rates of interest) and a few policy tweaks such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) (the topic of my new book Money and Work Unchained). This core narrative is false: everything needs to change, from the bottom up. And that of course terrifies those gorging at the trough of status quo wealth and power. Read More |
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01.12.18- Party While You Can - Central Bank Ready To Pop The 'Everything' Bubble
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01.11.18- Traders Remind Central Banks to Take Care on Route to Exit Door
A minor tweak in the Bank of Japan’s bond-purchase operation Tuesday saw the yen strengthen more than 1 percent in two days. A change in the way China’s central bank manages the yuan sparked losses in that currency while recent hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials nudged the euro higher. Read More |
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01.10.18- The day I found out it was all rigged
The most exciting stories from the morning’s newspapers were reviews of the upcoming Iron Man 2 film. But all that changed at around 2:45pm when, without warning, the stock market crashed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,000 points within minutes. It was unprecedented… especially because there was absolutely no reason why stocks should have fallen so much. Read More |
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01.09.18- What Has QE Wrought?
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01.08.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: UFOs, Tesla, DeLonge, ETS, Covert Ops
This is a “what if” story. But it’s also based on decades of experience analyzing propaganda and cover stories. It’s based on the knowledge that military and intelligence operatives are trained to lie, and they like to lie, and they get up in the morning, licking their chops, because they know they’re going to lie during another day in paradise. Read More |
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01.06.18- It’s Not About Democracy: Control Fraud Is the Core of our Political System
he many are finally calling out the abusers of power because there’s no longer any need to pay the corrupting costs of centralization. If we strip away the pretense of democracy, what is the core of our political System? Read More |
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01.05.18- Final Warning for America - The Fed Coin
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01.04.17- Phillips Curve R.I.P.
Central banks’ excuse for their massive injections of liquidity in the 21st century is that they are striving to stimulate the 2% rate of inflation that they think is the requirement for sustained rises in wages and GDP. In a total contradiction of the Phillips Curve, in Japan massive doses of central bank liquidity have resulted in the collapse of both consumer and financial asset prices. In the US the result has been a large increase in stock averages propelled by unrealistic P/E ratios and financial speculation resulting in Tesla’s capitalization at times exceeding that of General Motors. Read More |
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01.03.18- Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can't "Normalize" Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus
In a nutshell, central banks are promising to "normalize" their monetary policy extremes in 2018. Nice, but there's a problem: you can't "normalize" markets that are now entirely dependent on extremes of monetary stimulus. Attempts to "normalize" will break the markets and the financial system. Let's start with the core dynamic of the global economy and nosebleed-valuation markets: credit. Modern finance has many complex moving parts, and this complexity masks its inner simplicity. Read More |
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01.02.18- Forecast 2018 — What Could Go Wrong?
Since I believe that the financial system is at the heart of today’s meta-question (What Could Go Wrong?), it would be perhaps more to the point to ask: what has held this matrix of rackets together so long? After all, rackets are characterized by pervasive lying and fraud, meaning their operations don’t add up. Things that don’t comport with reality are generally prone to failure so sooner or later they have to implode. Read More |
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01.01.18- The Dreaded “Flattening Yield Curve” Meets QE Unwind
The price of three-month Treasury securities fell and the yield — which moves in the opposite direction — rose, ending the year at 1.39%, after having spiked to 1.47% on December 26, the highest since September 12, 2008. This is in the upper half of the Fed’s new target range for the federal funds rate (1.25% to 1.50%). Back in October 2015, the yield was still at 0%: Read More |
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12.30.17- Doug Casey On The Coming Financial Crisis: "It's A Gigantic Accident Waiting To Happen"
Justin: Doug, I know you disagree with Yellen. But I’m wondering why she would even say this? Has she lost her mind? Read More |
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12.28.17- The Dark Power Behind the Frauds and Financial Asset Bubbles - Whose Fool Are You?
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12.27.17- Doug Kass' 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump
After a year of historically low volatility and ever-rising stock prices, the bullish consensus was "in" and the contrary was "out" in 2017. But after the Trump election win in late 2016, a market on steroids was not a conclusion or forecast by any main stream Wall Street forecaster. Read More |
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12.25.17- Ready To Delete The Fed
That is, the writer didn't intend to enlighten, and for 99% of the people in the country, it won't -- because America is, for the most part, an innumerate nation. It is for this very reason that I have pounded my head against the wall on this web page for over 10 years. If the people of this nation were not innumerate there would have been an utterly vicious reaction by now and not one single politician -- or Fed President -- would still be in office. None. They'd have either left peacefully or piecefully long ago. Read More |
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12.23.17- Weekend Rant: Benjamin Franklin’s
On September 17, 1787 on the final day of the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a woman as he walked out of Independence Hall. “Well Doctor, what have we got– a republic, or a monarchy?” she asked. It was a burning question on everyone’s mind: what form of government would the Constitutional delegates establish for the new country? Franklin didn’t hesitate. “A republic– if you can keep it.” Read More |
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12.22.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: De Facto Travel Restrictions Now Exist For Americans
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12.21.17- Yield Curve Steepens Dramatically:
The yield curve is said to steepen when the spreads between short-term and long-term rates increases. The yield curve flattens when spreads shrink. A bearish steepener occurs when rates are rising and long-term yields are rising more than short-term rates. Spreads widen. A bullish steepener occurs when rates are falling and short-term rates are falling faster than long-term rates. Spreads widen. A bullish flattener occurs when rates are falling and long-term rates are falling faster than short-term rates. Spreads narrow. Read More |
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12.20.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How to Recapture the True Spirit of Christmas in a Toxic Age
I keep waiting to encounter the “kind, forgiving, charitable, pleasant” Christmastime environment that Charles Dickens describes in A Christmas Carol: “when men and women seem by one consent to open their shut-up hearts freely, and to think of people below them as if they really were fellow-passengers to the grave, and not another race of creatures bound on other journeys.” Read More |
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12.19.17- Bad Juju! US Treasury 10Y Term Premia Crushed As Fed Unwinds Treasury Note/Bond Holdings
As The Fed dumps their Treasury Note/Bond holdings, the 10 year Term Premium declines. The Term Premium is the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that short-term Treasury yields do not evolve as they expected. Read More |
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12.18.17- Central Banks Want the World to Carry On While They Quietly Tighten
Led by interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China, central banks around the world shifted toward a tighter monetary stance this week. Yet the moves were either so well-telegraphed, or so tiny, and the language about future action so hedged, that there was barely a ripple in financial markets. Read More |
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12.16.17- Four Charts Prove The 'Economic Recovery' Is Just A Fed-Induced Entitlement Program For The Wealthy
Historically "economic recovery" was largely characterized by job and wage growth, distributed across the income spectrum, and a rebound in GDP growth to north of ~3%-5%. These days, the notion of "economic recovery" has been hijacked by the Fed and bastardized in such a way that they celebrate "asset bubbles" rather than real growth in economic output. Read More |
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12.15.17- And So Begins The Rug-Yank Phase Of Fed Policy
Take the latest tax bill, for instance. The GOP wants to tax less and spend more. The Democrat party wants to tax more and spend even more. We don’t recall seeing any proposals to tax less, spend less, and shrink the size of the state. And why would we? Read More |
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12.14.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Get The Rope, Pitchforks And Torches
There is one simple and easily actionable approach that each of us could take to try to wrest control over health policy decisions away from the lobbyists who now control it with little effective counterbalance and put it back in the hands of our patients, who should be powerful shapers of such decision making. This is a short excerpt from an article in JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) on a conversation they urge doctors to have with you. The gist of it? Obamacare and forced cost-shifting in general is something you should demand more of from politicians. Read More |
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12.13.17- The Fed is Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic (the Iceberg Comes in 2018).
The entire financial world expects the Fed to raise rates a final time. This will mark the fifth rate hike since December 2015, and the fourth of the last 12 months. Throughout this time period, the Fed has routinely stated that it is confused as to why inflation is “too low.” Inflation is not too low. The method the Fed uses to measure inflation is intentionally incorrect. As a result, the official inflation numbers reflect whatever the Fed wants, as opposed to reality. Read More |
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12.12.17- The Fed's Fantasy on Neutral Interest Rates
The neutral rate currently appears to be quite low by historical standards, implying that the federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to get to a neutral policy stance. If the neutral level rises somewhat over time, as most FOMC participants expect, additional gradual rate hikes would likely be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion.Read More |
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12.11.17- The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun
The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to: 1) Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk). Read More |
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12.09.17- Warning: Trump’s Federal Reserve Pick Hates Gold and Cash
There are stories of banks and governments suspending accounts for no legitimate reason. Furthermore, the interest rates at banks hardly give you much incentive to store your money there. But as with anything that gives individuals more control over their lives, the government doesn’t like it. They want the ultimate control to cut you off from your economic power. Read More |
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12.08.17- Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows
To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.” Well it appears that someone at the Fed has finally decided to see what would happen if the CPI included those assets, and surprise! the result is inflation of 3%, or half again as high as the Fed’s target rate. Read More |
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12.07.17- Central Banks, Governments & Keynesian Economists Are Losing Their $hit Over Bitcoin
In this particular case, it happens to be bitcoin! With bitcoin now on the cusp of breaking through $12,000 and a $200 billion market cap it seems all the puppets of the archaic, violent, tyrannical system of money and banking are losing their $hit! Read More |
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12.06.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: BLOCKBUSTER! - Deep Black Ops Contractor Exposes OKC!
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12.05.17- The Economics of Bitcoin
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12.04.17- Three Blatant Lies The Fed Just Told You
Most of the little tidbits I gleaned from the latest meeting minutes (go here if you missed my expose earlier this week) are prevarications, obfuscations, or bald-faced lies. Here are a few. Lie #1: Equities rise and fall because of investor behavior. Here’s what they said: Broad equity price indexes rose notably, reportedly reflecting in part investors’ perceptions that tax reform was becoming more likely. Read More |
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12.02.17- Weekend Rant: Wall Street Criminals Continue Their Fraud And Theft: NO JAIL TIME  Via America’s Lawyer: Mike Papantonio talks with Danielle DiMartino Booth about how a new federal lawsuit says Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks rigged the U.S Treasury Bond Market to gain profits for themselves. Read More |
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12.01.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Ant and the Grasshopper
This tweet was getting retweeted all over the place last weekend. Apologies for the bad language. Read More |
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Former Congressman Ron Paul has strongly argued following the alleged chemical gas attack blamed on the Syrian government that it makes no logical sense for Assad to order a gas attack, and has called the accusations a telltale sign of a false flag attack meant to provide justification for the U.S. military to maintain a presence in Syria.
The Fed is now officially screwed. 
I hear a lot of talk lately in the alternative media (and even the mainstream media) of the potential for World War III. The general assumption when one hears that term is that “nuclear conflict” is imminent. But a world war does not necessarily have to be fought with nukes. For example, we are perhaps already witnessing the first shots fired in a global economic war as the Trump administration gets ready to implement far-reaching trade tariffs. This action might provide cover (or justification) for destructive attacks on the U.S. fiscal system by China, Japan, Russia, the EU, OPEC nations, etc. The ultimate attack being a dumping of their U.S. debt holdings and the death of the dollar’s world reserve status. 
In a striking interview with Goldman's Allison Nathan, legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones argues that US inflation is set to accelerate sharply, making bonds a very poor investment, and that the Fed must act swiftly to tackle financial bubbles created by prolonged monetary easing.
Summary: Timmy, a precocious ten-year-old opens a lemonade stand and learns about unbacked currencies. 
With apologies to the Dire Straights:
Jerome Powell, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, just completed his third week on the job. He’s hardly had enough time to learn how to operate the office coffee maker, let alone the all-in-one printer. He still doesn’t know what roach coach menu items induce a heinous gut bomb.
Sometimes the most important news is buried so deep it’s not even news. A certain story may be the most important market development by far, but if no one notices and no one understands the significance, it hardly qualifies as news.
During her last news conference in December, Janet Yellen stood firm on her record stating, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years that we’ve seen this.”
Before diving into the topic, let’s be clear about one thing: The economic definition of “inflation” is the increase in money supply relative to the marginal increase of wealth output (GDP) in the economic system for which money supply is created. This is differentiated from “price inflation,” which is “a general rise in prices.”
[Catherine Austin Fitts Note: This article was submitted by Terrence Leveck for publication. It was so substantially edited that we decided to publish at Solari.com. Our readers really want to know where the missing money went and how we get it back!] 
The following information comes from insider interviews with Ellis Medavoy and Richard Bell, two people I interview extensively in my collection, 
Ever since the credit and equities crash of 2008, Americans have been bombarded relentlessly with the narrative that our economy is “in recovery”. For some people, simply hearing this ad nauseam is enough to stave off any concerns they may have for the economy. For some of us, however, it’s just not enough. We need concrete data that actually supports the notion, and for years, we have seen none. In fact, we have heard from officials at the Federal Reserve that the exact opposite is true. They have admitted that the so-called recovery has been fiat driven, and that there is a danger that when the Fed finally stops artificially propping up the economy with constant stimulus and near zero interest rates, the whole farce might come down. 
For many decades the Federal Reserve has rigged the bond market by its purchases. And for about a century, central banks have set interest rates (mainly to stabilize their currency’s exchange rate) with collateral effects on securities prices. It appears that in May 2010, August 2015, January/February 2016, and currently in February 2018 the Fed is rigging the stock market by purchasing S&P equity index futures in order to arrest stock market declines driven by fundamentals, and to push prices back up in keeping with a decade of money creation. 
Less than two weeks ago, the United States Department of Treasury very quietly released its own internal projections for the federal government’s budget deficits over the next several years.
The new Fed Chair may break from his predecessors
Critics of “New Age” monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come:
Forget the Trump tax cuts, the Senate budget deal, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and the collapse in foreign buying of US Treasuries: after years of dormancy, the biggest catalyst for a sharp inflationary spike has finally emerged, and it is none of the above. Behold: the velocity of money.
We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close. 
During her last news conference in December, Janet Yellen stood firm on her record stating, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years that we’ve seen this.”
Today saw Jerome Powell sworn into office as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen. Looking at the sea of red across Monday's financial markets, Mr. Powell is very likely *not* having the sort of first day on the job he was hoping for...
It wasn’t the bombshell everyone hoped for. But the release of the FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) memo did corroboratewhat we already knew: the government is corrupt.
A glitch in the monetary matrix?
Recently, we saw the dollar index (the DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of the world’s major currencies, break below its support of 91 for the first time since January of 2015 (Figure 1).
How stupid do central bankers think we are? By account of their communications and actions the answer is: Very.
I started in the Treasury bond business in 1985 after a 10-year career in commercial banking. I retired as a senior officer of Citibank that year at a relatively young age and made the move to Wall Street.
There seems to be a very large consensus the markets have entered into a “permanently high plateau,” or an era in which price corrections in asset prices have been effectively eliminated through fiscal and monetary policy.
Sometimes we get the impression that the Fed has absolutely no clue what they’re doing.
The government shutdown wasn’t long enough to delay the nomination hearing for an economist who could be considered to be one of the 
Real estate is the number one form of wealth for most people. However, as the last housing bubble and ensuing recession have shown, real estate is not always a safe investment. In 2006, housing prices peaked before falling to new lows in 2011 in the aftermath of the recession.
There has been chatter about whether the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) will result in a temporary stimulus, or sugar high, to U.S. economic activity because of the increase in corporate after-tax profits and the increase in household disposable income that will flow from the tax-rate cuts. How can putting this extra after-tax income in the hands of businesses and households not stimulate private sector spending? In order to answer this question, you have to follow the money. 
At the same time the Federal Reserve claims it’s going to raise interest rates and normalize its balance sheet, it’s also publishing an essay 
We made it through 2017.
Interest rates are finally rising, and as we 
American consumers are not only feeling good. They’re feeling great. They’re borrowing money – and spending it – like tomorrow will never come.
The nation is fragmenting because the Status Quo is failing the majority of the citizenry.
Many people do not realize that America is not only entering a new year, but within the next month we will also be entering a new economic era. In early February, Janet Yellen is set to leave the Federal Reserve and be replaced by the new Fed chair nominee, Jerome Powell. Now, to be clear, the Fed chair along with the bank governors do not set central bank policy. Policy for most central banks around the world is dictated in Switzerland by the 
Global central banks are being served a sharp reminder by investors that their monetary policy planning carries the potential to roil financial markets in 2018.
May 6, 2010 started off as a pretty boring day.
It has now become a daily ritual in which story after story of broke Americans plaster the web. Yet somehow on the mainstream press, very little is discussed about this topic. Americans are largely broke because 
“I think there must be something wrong with me, Linus. Christmas is coming, but I’m not happy. I don’t feel the way I’m supposed to feel.” - Charlie Brown, A Charlie Brown Christmas
Its going to be bad juju (or incoming weeks) for some Treasury investors as The Fed continues its “great unwind” of their $4.4 Trillion balance sheet.
In her testimony to the Congressional Economic Committee on November 29, 2017, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the neutral rate appears to be quite low by historical standards. From this, she concluded that the federal funds rate would not have to increase much to reach a neutral stance.
In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.
I told you I’d get you the rest of my Fed meeting notes soon, and (unlike the Fed) I always try to say what I mean.
