08.17.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Decline in the Fall
(or Late Summer, Anyway)

Fred Reed

I am not sure why people write columns. Partly from boredom, I suppose, or lack of anything better to do. Partly from exasperation. Yet partly from the hope that if enough people collectively become aware of problems, they might, just maybe, do something about them. I can’t believe this any longer. Today’s crimes, lunacies, and decays  are too many, profitable, and intractable. We are racing out of control toward some as yet dimly limned catastrophe. Hang on and take the ride.

To begin with, America is no longer a country. It is a set of special interests occupying the same place: Corporations, races, ethnicities, faiths, ideologies, foreign agents pretending to be Americans, all at each other’s throats. No cure is possible. Read More

08.16.18- Economic Contagion?
Central Banks Are The Real Culprit

Brandon Smith

The mainstream news has been awash lately in talk over the danger of economic “contagion,” primarily due to lack of dollar liquidity in emerging markets. This lack of liquidity is being pegged as a trigger for instability in stocks, bonds and forex markets around the world, and this time around it is the nation of Turkey that is being called a potential trigger for a fiscal domino effect spreading through multiple countries.

We have heard talk of “contagion” before. Not long ago, Italy’s political shift toward a supposedly populist government led to fears of debt contagion within the European Union; this is still a valid concern, just not for the reasons the mainstream financial media usually presents. Read More

08.15.18- For most U.S. workers, real wages have barely budged in decades
Drew DeSilver

On the face of it, these should be heady times for American workers. U.S. unemployment is as low as it’s been in nearly two decades (3.9% as of July) and the nation’s private-sector employers have been adding jobs for 101 straight months – 19.5 million since the Great Recession-related cuts finally abated in early 2010, and 1.5 million just since the beginning of the year.

But despite the strong labor market, wage growth has lagged economists’ expectations. In fact, despite some ups and downs over the past several decades, today’s real average wage (that is, the wage after accounting for inflation) has the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago. Read More

08.14.18- 'It's big corrupt government': Glenn Beck on why it's time to audit the Federal Reserve
The Blaze

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08.13.18- The Donald From Jekyll Island: Will Trump Take Over The Federal Reserve?

Threatening the Federal Reserve System’s monopoly on money is often credited as the main reason JFK was assassinated. Though we may never know the full truth, this was likely at least one of the motives for the CIA taking him out.

If there’s one good thing about Trump’s recent “attack” on the Fed, it’s that he may be helping to expose the criminal organization for what it's always been: a monstrous tool of the .000001%.

During an interview with CNBC, Trump, in very simple words (which is about all he knows… he does have “the best words” though!), openly voiced his disagreement with current Fed policies. Read More

08.11.18- Hawkish Fed Accelerates QE Unwind – Sets a “Ticking Time Bomb”
Dan Denning

The only other time the Fed did an “unwind” of quantitative easing similar to today’s market conditions was back in 1937.

The same chart pattern may happen soon under the guise of “balance sheet normalization.”

In fact, “balance sheet normalization” may become known as both the greatest and worst economic magic trick the Fed has ever performed.

The “greatest” because a hawkish Fed continues to unwind the money it printed as a result of Quantitative Easing (QE), and that money simply goes “POOF!” Read More

08.10.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How Roger Williams
Started a Free Society

Joe Jarvis

Formation of a Radical

Kings never impressed him. And Roger Williams was exposed to Kings from early in his life.

As a youth, he worked for Sir Edward Coke, who was a lawyer, judge, and held other similar political posts in 17th century England. Williams accompanied him daily into the chambers of Parliament and other Councils.

Coke trailblazed many decent government policies for the time. One was that a man’s home is his castle. This helped set the tone for individual rights in England, even against royal opposition. It was Ye Olde Stand Your Ground. Read More

08.09.18- Signs Point to a Global Slowdown
James Rickards

As gold has struggled through 2018, (down over 10% from $1,363/oz. on January 25 to $1,215/oz. today), my forecast for a strong year-end for gold has remained unchanged.

This forecast is based on a better-late-than-never realization by the Fed that they are overtightening into fundamental economic weakness, followed quickly by a full-reversal flip to easing in the form of pauses on rate hikes in September and December.

Those pauses will be an admission the Fed sees no way out of its multiple rounds of QE and extended zero interest rate policy from 2008 to 2013 without causing a new recession. Once that occurs, inflation is just a matter of time. Gold will respond accordingly. Read More

08.08.18- Putting The 'Con' In 'Confidence': All The Fed Really Has To Offer Is Smoke And Mirrors
Michael Lebowitz, CFA

At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.”  – Voltaire

 “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” – Mario Draghi July 26, 2012

On July 26, 2012, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi essentially guaranteed the ECB would not allow the markets to cripple the Euro region. This shot across the bow finally remedied the instability caused by the sovereign debt crisis. The markets quickly reversed the damaging trends and uncertainty that had plagued the Euro-zone for months. Read More

THE AMERICAN DREAM - how debt slavery is killing us
Frank White

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08.06.18- Here's Why Rip-Roaring Inflation
Is Inevitable

Charles Hugh Smith

One of the enduring mysteries of the past decade is why inflation has remained tame while the central bank and government have pumped trillions of dollars of newly created money into the economy. Millions of words have been written about this, and so some shortcuts will have to be taken to make sense of it in one essay.

Let's start with the basics.

1. Adding newly created money but not generating new goods and services of the same value reduces the purchasing power of existing money. To keep it simple: say the economy of a country is $20 trillion. (Hey, the US GDP is $20 trillion...) Say its money supply is $10 trillion. Read More

08.04.18- Trump Discovering Federal Reserve’s Dilemma
Chris Marus

U.S. president Donald Trump recently issued some pointed comments about the Federal Reserve and some of the currency policies of China and the Eurozone. Which highlight the underlying flaw in the Federal Reserve’s management of the money supply, that the entire world is on the verge of finding out about in a big way.

When the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and printed several trillion dollars a few years ago, even former chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that the purpose was to promote easier financial conditions and the appearance of wealth. Of course it would logically follow though that when interest rates rise and the printed money is retracted, that you would get the opposite effect. Which is never particularly politically palatable. Read More

08.03.18- 21st Century Misery Index: Labor’s Share Of The Economy And Real-World Inflation
Charles Hugh Smith

The “Misery Index” signals things have never been better, but that’s because the data isn’t accurate. It’s time for a new index, like the one proposed here…

Isn’t it obvious that those at the top of the wealth-power pyramid don’t want us to know how much ground we’ve lost while they’ve gorged on immense gains?

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, an era of stagflation, the Misery Index was the unemployment rate plus inflation, both of which were running hot. Read More

08.02.18- What’s behind the stock and bond markets’ spooky reaction to the Fed’s moves?
Ed Yardeni

Counterweights keep 10-year Treasury yields from soaring to 4% or even 5%

Helping stocks to recover from the year's lows in early February is the eerie calm in the U.S. bond market. 

The Bond Vigilante Model suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.56%  yield tends to trade around the growth rate in nominal GDP on a year-over-year basis (Fig. 1). It has been trading consistently below nominal GDP growth since mid-2010. The current spread is among the widest since then, with nominal GDP growing 5.4% while the bond yield is just below 3.0%. Read More

08.01.18- America’s greatest foe isn’t China or Russia — it’s debt
Harry J. Kazianis

While many in conservative circles hailed the latest jump in economic growth, there was little talk of a long-term fiscal challenge which, left unaddressed, will wreak havoc on our economy and the world’s — our skyrocketing national debt that could become unmanageable in coming decades.

The numbers don’t lie. While recent tax cuts seem to have at least partially fueled strong economic growth, projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for this year forecast an $890 billion deficit, up from $438 Billion in 2015. If current CBO projections hold, next year the deficit will surpass $1 trillion. The last time that happened was during the great recession. Read More

07.31.18- Trumping the FED...What Will It Mean?
Wayne Jett

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System presently has three members. The chairman and vice-chairman of the Board are appointees of President Trump. The third sitting governor was appointed in 2014. Four vacancies exist on the seven-member board, which President Trump plans to fill soon. The president’s appointees already have control of the Fed board. But POTUS will add board members to assist in the work to be done, which includes a currency reset and ending the Fed.

Private Central Banks Create Illusory Money

These are not small matters. Financial sins of the Federal Reserve have been horrendous since its creation in 1913.  Read More

07.30.18- America’s middle class is slowly being ‘wiped out’
Larry Getlan

It’s 30% more expensive to be middle class than it was 20 years ago, according to a new book

America’s middle class is being wiped out by the cost of living far outpacing salaries, says Alissa Quart, author of ‘Squeezed: Why Our Families Can’t Afford America.’

After spending his days teaching AP American history and economics at the public Live Oak High School in San Jose, Calif., Matt Barry drives for Uber. Read More

07.28.18- How Inflation Destroys a Civilization
Nick Giambruno

In 1971, President Nixon severed the final connection between gold and the U.S. dollar. Regular readers know that Bill has long warned of the unseen side effects of this decoupling. 

Today, Casey Research’s globetrotting analyst, Nick Giambruno, shows one more threat posed by America’s “fake” money, and reveals what you can do to protect yourself.

Fight for $15!

This was the rallying cry of what eventually became the largest fast-food strike in U.S. history. Read More

07.27.18- Confederate Inflation Rates (1861 – 1865)
Kettle Moraine Precious Metals

The Chart attached below shows the Annualized Confederate Inflation Rate. The Annual Inflation Rates are calculated from information provided by the Richmond Civil War Centennial

Committee on the purchasing power of Confederate Notes.

The table below shows the actual Confederate Treasury Note Inflation data that was used to develop this chart. At the beginning of the war on January 1, 1861 one Confederate dollar would purchase one gold dollar. By May it took  $1.05 Confederate dollars to purchase one Gold Dollar or 5% inflation in four months. By February of 1861 it took $1.25 Confederate Dollars to buy one Gold Dollar or 25% inflation. Read More

07.26.18- Trump vs. The Fed: America Sacrificed At The NWO Altar
Brandon Smith

There is a disconnect within the liberty movement over the notion of where to find the root source of globalism. A segment of people within the movement seem to think that the fount of globalism resides within America itself; that American imperialism is the foundation of the globalist scheme and the dollar is the single most important mechanism supporting their power. This is an naive oversimplification of the problem. Read More

07.25.18- IRS to revoke 362,000 passports
from US citizens

Simon Black

About two and a half years ago, I told you about a particularly nasty piece of legislation that President Obama quietly signed into law towards the end of his administration.

They called it the “FAST Act”, which stood for Fixing America’s Surface Transportation.

Yet despite $300 billion earmarked for infrastructure repairs, they didn’t manage to fix very much of America’s surface transportation.

The legislation did, however, have two major effects:

1) The FAST Act authorized the US government to plunder excess capital from the Federal Reserve… which is about as stupid as thing as anyone could possibly do. Read More

07.24.18- More Lies From The Corrupt Elite...
Don’t believe them

Paul Craig Roberts

For two decades the offshoring of American jobs to Asia and Mexico has destroyed the careers and incomes of tens of millions of US citizens, the pension tax base for state and local governments, the federal tax base for Social Security and Medicare, and the opportunity society that once characterized the United States of America.

The rise in corporate profits that resulted from substituting foreign labor for American labor rewarded corporate executives and boards, hedge funds, large shareholders, and Wall Street with profits at the expense of the American population and the US economy. Read More

07.23.18- America The Insolvent
Chris Martenson

A reckoning is due. One the elites are already readying for.

Watching the world these days, I’m experiencing the same fury that rises up from my gut when the driver in the car ahead me is weaving drunkenly, endangering everyone on the road.

Fury is a normal and rational human response when threatened with unnecessary harm. Women who are groped (or worse) by a disgusting predator like Harvey Weinstein, pensioners whose funds are stolen by Wall Street shysters, everyone who is being fleeced by corporations in search of a few extra dollars this quarter --  all have the right to be infuriated. Read More

07.21.18- Are You Prepared for the
End of Fake Money?

MN Gordon

Today we begin with a fundamental question: What is money?

This, no doubt, is an important question.  And we ask it with clear intent and purpose.  Namely, we want to better understand how it’s possible for America to rack up such a massive trade deficit with China.

America’s trade deficit with China, in 2017 alone, was $375 billion.  That’s a gap of over $31 billion a month – or $1 billion a day.  We believe having a better grasp on what money is will bring clarity to the nasty trade deficit that’s motivating today’s burgeoning trade war. Read More

07.20.18- Fed chair Jerome Powell is whistling past two looming threats to the US economy
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the threat of a trade war to the US economy.

  • He also dismissed a key recession signal emerging from bond market yield spreads, despite its historical reliability.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is overlooking two central risks facing the US economy: the prospect of a trade-war induced slowdown and a key recession warning sign from financial markets.  Read More

07.19.18- What Can QE Tell Us About QT?
Peter Cook

In “The Fed’s Real Target” it was explained that the Fed’s interest rate manipulations are intended to influence the behavior of borrowers, not investors.  Fed Chairman Powell agrees.  In his most recent press conference, Powell reiterated that the Fed Funds rate continues to be the Fed’s primary tool to influence the U.S. economy.  Based on the Fed’s analytical framework, the economy is slowed by a series of interest rates increases because the behavior of borrowers is constrained.  Using similar logic, the economy is stimulated by a series of interest rates declines because borrowers use the reduction in interest expense that promote economic growth. Read More

07.18.18- The Fed Will Sacrifice Stocks
to Save Bonds

Graham Summers

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury bond.

This bond represents the “risk free” rate of return for a total economic cycle (roughly 10 years) denominated in the global reserve currency (the $USD).

Put simply, this is THE bond to watch if you want to keep an eye on how the financial system is acting. It is the bedrock for all risk… and its yield represents rate of return against which all risk assets are priced/ valued. Read More

07.17.18- Purchasing Power Warning
Gary Christianson

In a better world we might expect:

  • “Honest” money is universally used, has intrinsic value, retains its purchasing power and cannot be counterfeited by individuals or bankers.
  • Individuals, corporations, and governments spend less than their income.
  • Governments and bankers support and encourage real accounting and “honest” money. Read More

07.16.18- Powell’s Testimony:
The 4 Numbers That Matter

Nick Colas

What does Fed Chair Powell want to accomplish in his congressional testimony? We’re betting he would like Fed Funds Futures to more fully discount 2 more rate hikes in 2018. That could be a problem for US equities, as we outline below.

During Fed Chair Jay Powell’s congressional testimony over the next 2 days, consider the following 4 numbers:

  1. 2.61%. That is the yield on the 2-Year Treasury as of today’s close, which is a high for the year. Yes, it is also a high for the last decade, but it is the 2018 high that matters right now. Since the 2-Year Treasury is keenly sensitive to Fed policy, this push to new high yields signals that bond markets expect a very upbeat testimony from Mr. Powell. Read More

07.14.18- Fed Sweeps Yield Curve Under the Rug – What Are They Trying to Hide?
Birch Gold Group

A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.”

In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing in the market should start preparing to expect the unexpected.

And right now, it looks like the Fed’s bizarre moves are continuing. Read More

07.13.18- Fed chair says Trump's trade wars are starting to worry businesses, and the end result could be ugly
Jeff Thomas

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in an interview published Thursday, suggested he isn't sure how President Donald Trump's trade battles are going to turn out. 

But Powell told Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal that business contacts across the US have raised alarm about Trump's trade policy to the 12 Federal Reserve branches. 

"And we are hearing a rising level of concern about the effects of changes in trade policy," Powell said. Read More

07.12.18- Is This The Most Hawkish Fed Ever?
Michael Pento

My research shows that this is one of the most hawkish Fed rate-hiking regimes ever. It has raised rates seven times during this current cycle and is on pace to raise the Fed Funds Rate(FFR) four times this year and three times in 2019.

But what makes its monetary policy extraordinarily restrictive is that for the first time in history the Fed is also selling $40 billion per month of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasuries starting in Q3 and $600 billion per year come October. Because the Fed is destroying money at a record pace while the rest of the world’s major central banks are still engaged in money printing (QE) and zero interest rate policies (ZIRP), Jerome Powell’s trenchant and unilateral tightening policy is now causing chaos in emerging markets. Read More

07.11.18- Is Hammurabi's Code the key
to fixing the banks?

The Hutch Report

Over the years there have been a chain of events that have led us to where we are now. This is true not only for the US but for the rest of the world. In a previous article we tried to determine when the US was at its strongest, to maybe shed some light on where the US went off track. It seemed clear that when the US middle class was the largest portion of the population domestic production was also at its greatest. Simply put, people were working and had money to spend. More demand created more production and more jobs.

Looking at the non-farm payroll reports you would think that everything is booming yet we see from a number of sources that low unemployment numbers do not tell the whole story. There are a large number of facts and arguments that support that point of view. Read More

07.10.18- Inflation: Your Role as a Milk Cow
Jeff Thomas

Traditionally, inflation has been defined as “an increase in the amount of currency in circulation.” Such an increase almost always causes an increase in the cost of goods and services, since, more plentiful currency units lowers their rarity, as compared to the supply of goods and services, which remains roughly the same. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising if a 20% increase in the amount of currency units translates into a 20% increase in the price of goods and services.

Unfortunately, in recent decades, even dictionaries have been offering a revised definition of inflation, as “an increase in the price of goods and services.” This is a pity, as it makes an already confusing subject even more difficult to understand.  Read More

07.08.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Make Border Security Great Again – Privatize It!
Kerry Lutz

The media continually informs us that there’s a crisis at the US southern border. However, little is being done about it. President Trump has his ideas and the Congress appears completely unwilling to act. Parts of the Wall are being built, but it can’t happen soon enough to quickly staunch the flow of illegals. Therefore, it’s time to take an approach that always works when it’s tried. Unleash the power of capitalism to solve this intractable problem. It’s time to privatize border enforcement.  Read More

07.06.18- As the Yield Curve Flattens, Threatens to Invert, the Fed Discards it as Recession Indicator
Wolf Richter

This Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes, it’s replacing the yield curve.

In the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 12 and 13, released this afternoon, there was a doozie, obscured somewhat by the dynamics of the rate hike plus the indication that there would be two more rate hikes this year, for a total of four, up from three at the prior meeting, with more hikes to come in 2019, along with other changes – a phenomenon I called, This Fed Grows Relentlessly More Hawkish, Gone are the Kid Gloves.

But the doozie in the minutes was about the flattening “yield curve.” Read More

07.06.18- As the Yield Curve Flattens, Threatens to Invert, the Fed Discards it as Recession Indicator
Wolf Richter

This Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes, it’s replacing the yield curve.

In the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 12 and 13, released this afternoon, there was a doozie, obscured somewhat by the dynamics of the rate hike plus the indication that there would be two more rate hikes this year, for a total of four, up from three at the prior meeting, with more hikes to come in 2019, along with other changes – a phenomenon I called, This Fed Grows Relentlessly More Hawkish, Gone are the Kid Gloves.

But the doozie in the minutes was about the flattening “yield curve.” Read More

07.05.18- Unfunded Promises
John Mauldin


In describing the global debt train wreck these last few weeks, I’ve discovered a common problem. Many of us define “debt” way too narrowly.

A debt occurs when you receive something now in exchange for a promise to give something back later. It doesn’t have to be cash. If you borrow your neighbor’s lawn mower and promise to return it next Tuesday, that’s a kind of debt. You receive something (use of the lawn mower) and agree to repayment terms – in this case, your promise to return it on time and in working order. Read More

07.04.18- Globalists Are Telling Us Exactly What Disasters They’re Planning for The Economy
Brandon Smith

Years ago when analysts first started to use the term “globalist”, there was an immediate recognition among liberty advocates as to who they were referring to. This was back when the movement for small government, the non-aggression principle, and true free markets was small but growing. These days, it’s difficult to gauge how many liberty groups there are or even if they know what small government and the non-aggression principle represent, let alone what makes a “globalist” a globalist. Read More

07.03.18- The Dollar Is a Source of Global Instability
Jim Rickards

The dollar constitutes about 60% of global reserves, 80% of global payments and almost 100% of global oil transactions.

So the dollar’s strength or weakness can have an enormous impact on global markets.

Using the Fed’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index (my favorite foreign exchange metric, much better than DXY), the dollar hit an all-time high in March 1985 (128.4) and hit an all-time low in July 2011 (80.3).

Right now, the index is 95.2, below the middle of the 35-year range. But what matters most to trading partners and international debtors is not the level but the trend. Read More

07.02.18- James Grant and Jim Chanos:
Fed Fraud and More

NYHS

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06.30.18- Fed Unwinding the Bernanke Experiments: Progress Report
Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland

Raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now part way into the process of unwinding the Bernanke emergency policies following the Great Recession.  So far, the well-telegraphed approach to unwinding quantitative easing and raising rates has had no discernible impact on the pattern of real GDP, inflation or the labor markets.  While Fed actions are only a part of the cause, US Treasury yields have risen and equities have become more volatile.

In this research report, we will examine the evolution of Fed policy as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seeks to create a sustainable approach to managing an economy no longer requiring emergency measures.  Specifically, we will study: Read More

06.29.18- The Yield Curve Is The Economy’s Canary In A Coal Mine
Dave Kranzler

The economy has hit a wall and is now sliding down it. I don’t care what bullish propaganda may or may not be bubbling up in the headlines from the financial media and Wall Street, the hard numbers I look at everyday show accelerating economic weakness. The fact that my view is contrary to mainstream consensus and political propaganda reinforces my conviction that my view about the economy is correct.

As an example of the ongoing underlying systemic decay and collapse conveyed by this week’s title, it was announced that General Electric would be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and replaced by Walgreen’s. GE was an original member of the index starting in 1896 and was a continuous member since  1907. Read More

06.28.18- Guess What Happens When Money Is Made Cheap And Labor Is Made Expensive?
Charles Hugh Smith

There’s a dark side to our financial system, and its benefiting the few at the expense of the many. Here’s the details…

Employment expands in the Protected cartel-dominated sectors, and declines in every sector exposed to globalization, domestic competition and cheap capital.

If you want to understand why the global economy is failing the many while enriching the few, start with the basics: capital, labor and resources. What happens when central banks drop interest rates to near-zero? Capital becomes dirt-cheap. It becomes ludicrously easy to borrow money to buy whatever cheap capital can buy: Read More

06.27.18- How Long Can The Federal Reserve Stave Off the Inevitable?
Paul Craig Roberts

When are America’s global corporations and Wall Street going to sit down with President Trump and explain to him that his trade war is not with China but with them? The biggest chunk of America’s trade deficit with China is the offshored production of America’s global corporations. When the corporations bring the products that they produce in China to the US consumer market, the products are classified as imports from China.

Six years ago when I was writing The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism, I concluded on the evidence that half of US imports from China consist of the offshored production of US corporations. Read More

06.26.18- The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn in 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
Daniel Nevins

I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. 

To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced by Fed officials. I’m now convinced that Chairman Jerome Powelldelivered an important message that went largely unreported, and I expect him to keep at it until people take notice. Read More

06.25.18- Abolishing The Private Central Bank (Fed) Is Challenging And Those Who’ve Tried We’re Stopped
Harley Schlanger

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06.23.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: More TRUTH… and it Matters!
Giacomino Nicolazzo

And while I am on my political soap box today, I am compelled to tell you something most people in America are not aware of & I guarantee you that most people around the world are not being told. It has to do with the children of illegal aliens being ripped from the arms, and sometimes from the nursing breasts of their mothers, thrown into cages and treated little better than dogs…all at the hands of the tyrannical Trump administration.

But you won’t believe what just a little research has revealed. Keep in mind, this is the research the Far Left & the MSM are banking on you will never do. If you don’t know the facts, they are free to lie & brainwash & mis-represent to their heart’s content. Read More

06.22.18- Fun With The Fed's "Stress" Test
Nicholas Colas

Like many of you, I spent part of the late afternoon reading through the results of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test of the US banking system. At first blush, everything looks good. Everyone passed. Now investors can look forward to next week’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, when we hear what sorts of buybacks and dividends these institutions can pay in the year ahead.

It’s difficult not to gasp a little when you look at the “Severely adverse” scenario the Fed used in this year’s review: Read More

06.21.18- How you can undermine the ‘evil cabal’
Dylan Charles

Over the years, the description of the tyrants and psychopaths that so often occupy positions of power in our world has evolved, and today it is fashionable to refer to this nebulous group by using the term ‘Evil Cabal.’

Language is perhaps the most important device we have for creating reality, and just as George Orwell knew, the more linguistically vague, simplistic, ambiguous and nondescript the language, the more room there is to shape perception. This is called Newspeak, and in the case of the Evil Cabal,’ the term fails to fully describe our complex world, but succeeds tremendously in maintaining the prison of fear that actually inhibits freedom. Read More

06.20.18- The Federal Reserve Cartel – 
A Financial Parasite

Chris Hamilton

United World Federalists founder James Warburg’s father was Paul Warburg, who financed Hitler with help from Brown Brothers Harriman partner Prescott Bush. [1]

Colonel Ely Garrison was a close friend of both President Teddy Roosevelt and President Woodrow Wilson.

Garrison wrote in Roosevelt, Wilson and the Federal Reserve,

“Paul Warburg was the man who got the Federal Reserve Act together after the Aldrich Plan aroused such nationwide resentment and opposition. The mastermind of both plans was Baron Alfred Rothschild of London.” Read More

06.19.18- The Federal Reserve Is Increasing The Pace Of Interest Rate Hikes Just In Time
For The 2018 Mid-Term Elections

Michael Snyder

If the Federal Reserve really wanted to hurt the U.S. economy, the quickest way that it could do that would be by aggressively raising interest rates.  Lower interest rates make it less expensive to borrow money, and therefore economic activity tends to expand in a low interest rate environment.  Alternatively, higher interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money, and economic activity tends to slow down in a high interest rate environment.  Since 1913, the Federal Reserve has engaged in 18 previous rate hiking cycles, and every single one of them resulted in a huge stock market decline and/or a recession. Read More

06.18.18- The Fed’s Short-Term Rate Policy Is Meaningless: The USD Is Doomed
Jim Rickards

Think of the Fed and its interference in the markets as a wanderer in the desert, who despite carrying enough water, can’t help himself from wading into the glorious, shimmering, pristine pool he sees over there in the distance.

Except it’s not water. It’s quicksand. Once the Fed first fell for the mirage that it could somehow execute the job so perfectly executed by free markets better than those free markets on their own, it has been left trying to extricate itself from yet another totally unnecessary, could-have-been-avoided, self-created disaster. Read More

06.16.18- Texas Bullion Depository
Open for Business

Mike Maharrey

The Texas Bullion Depository officially opened for business this week. The creation of the facility represents a power-shift away from the federal government, and sets the foundation to undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.

In June 2015, Gov. Greg Abbot signed legislation creating the state gold bullion and precious metal depository. The facility will not only provide a secure place for individuals, business, cities, counties, government agencies and even other countries to store gold and other precious metals, the law also creates a mechanism to facilitate the everyday use of gold and silver in transactions. In short, a person will eventually be able to deposit gold or silver – and pay other people through electronic means or checks – in sound money. Read More

06.15.18- The Federal Reserve: Public Enemy Number One
Peter Schmidt

When currency was backed by gold, a central bank’s main function was to maintain the value of the issued currency in terms of gold.  For example, if a central bank created too much money against the gold reserves in the banking system, an increasing number of people would begin to exchange their currency for gold.  To combat this, a central bank would be forced to raise interest rates and decrease the money supply.  The higher interest rates would incentivize people to exchange gold for larger savings on deposit that earn interest.  Banking reserves – gold – would return to the banking system and the economy would return to balance.  The prime reason for insisting on defining currency in terms of a precious metal was to provide a self-correcting braking mechanism to the creation of money.  As expressed by the great Wilhelm Röpke: Read More

06.14.18- The Federal Reserve Cartel: The Roundtable and The Illuminati
Dean Henderson

According to former British intelligence agent John Coleman’s book, The Committee of 300, the Rothschilds exert political control through the secretive Business Roundtable, which they created in 1909 with the help of Lord Alfred Milner and South African industrialist Cecil Rhodes.

The Rhodes Scholarship is granted by Cambridge University, out of which oil industry propagandist Cambridge Energy Research Associates operates.

Rhodes founded De Beers and Standard Chartered Bank. According to Gary Allen’s expose, The Rockefeller File, Milner financed the Russian Bolsheviks on Rothschild’s behalf, with help from Jacob Schiff and Max Warburg. Read More

06.13.18- The Federal Reserve Cartel: Freemasons and The House of Rothschild
Dean Henderson

Part two of a four-part series

In 1789 Alexander Hamilton became the first Treasury Secretary of the United States.  Hamilton was one of many Founding Fathers who were Freemasons.  

He had close relations with the Rothschild family which owns the Bank of England and leads the European Freemason movement.  George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, John Jay, Ethan Allen, Samuel Adams, Patrick Henry, John Brown and Roger Sherman were all Masons.

This was before their knowledge that the masons were being corrupted by the Rothschild Cartel ~ It was then outlawed in The United States Read More

06.12.18- The Federal Reserve Cartel; The Eight Families
Dean Henderson

Yes The First Central Bank Of The United States Was Started By A Founding Father, Alexander Hamilton, who was Rothschild’s Son-In-Law.

We Won The Battle But Lost The War Against The Cabal’s Bank From Which We Fled Britain In The First Place. As It Followed Us Here To America Through Rothschild’s Son-In-Law Alexander Hamilton In 1791.

But their monopoly over the global economy does not end at the edge of the oil patch. According to company 10K filings to the SEC, the Four Horsemen of Banking are among the top ten stock holders of virtually every Fortune 500 corporation.[1] So who then are the stockholders in these money center banks? This information is guarded much more closely. Read More

06.11.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: World Trade Center Building 7 Was Brought Down by Explosives
George Cassidy Payne

I know that World Trade Center Building 7 was not brought down by office fires. I know this because of my capacity to reason.The building fell symmetrically in less than 7 seconds at free fall acceleration for the first 100 feet. The overall building mass fell uniformly through what was the path of greatest resistance. The kink in the roof line is characteristic of a demolition timing sequence where the walls are collapsing inward. All of the debris ended up in a compact pile centered within the building’s footprint. In short, the hallmark characteristics of controlled demolition. Read More

06.09.18- Beware Former Central Bankers Telling You To Work More
Michael Krieger

I’m not the only one of course. The financial crisis of 2008/09 similarly shattered the worldview of tens, if not hundreds of millions of people across the globe. I believe that the old manner of doing things as far as organizing an economy and society died for good during that crisis and its aftermath. Sure it’s been shadily and undemocratically propped up ever since, and we haven’t yet transitioned to what’s next, but for all intents and purposes it’s dead. It’s dead because it has no credibility.

Hard work is fundamental to our continued existence and advancement as a species. I would never devalue the importance of hard work, particularly when combined with intense passion and drive, which leads to extraordinary technological progress and soaring artistic creations. Read More

06.08.18- 18 Times The Fed Has Gone Through A Rate Hiking Cycle, And 18 Times It Has Caused A Huge Stock Market Decline And/Or A Recession
Zach Scheidt

Since 1913, the Federal Reserve has engaged in 18 distinct interest rate hiking campaigns, and in every single one of those instances the end result was a large stock market decline, a recession, or both.  Now we are in the 19th rate tightening cycle since 1913, but many of the experts are insisting that things will somehow be different this time.  They assure us that the U.S. economy will continue to grow and that stock prices will continue to soar.  Of course the truth is that if something happens 18 times in a row, there is a really, really good chance that it will happen on the 19th time too. Read More

06.07.17- How Many Rabbits?
Bob Rinear

Logic says this had to end. History says it’s got to end. And yet they keep finding rabbits. I’ll be the first to admit, that I NEVER thought they could kick the cans down the road as far as they have. Yet, here we are.

I’ve been in this game for quite a while. I started in 1994 doing seminars for local investment clubs. That migrated into the first newsletter in 1996, and in 1997 we launched the web site.

All along the way, there were ills and evils that I pointed out, about how the economy is fake, the economic reports were fudged, the debts were unpayable, and on and on. And yet, through the magic of Central banking, they’ve managed to keep the wheels on this thing. It truly is incredible if you think about it. Read More

06.06.18- A Recession Is Coming... And the Fed Can't Stop It
Jim Rickards

Is the Fed ready for the next recession? The answer is no.

Extensive research shows that it takes between 300 and 500 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Fed to pull the U.S. economy out of a recession. (One basis point is 1/100th of 1 percentage point, so 500 basis points of rate reduction means the Fed would have to cut rates 5 percentage points.)

Right now the Fed’s target rate for fed funds, the so-called “policy rate,” is 1.75%. How do you cut rates 3–5% when you’re starting at 1.75%? You can’t.

Negative interest rates won’t save the day. Negative rates have been tried in Japan, the eurozone, Sweden and Switzerland, and the evidence is that they don’t work to stimulate the economy. Read More

06.05.18- What History Teaches
About Interest Rates

Brian Maher

“At no point in the history of the world has the interest on money been so low as it is now.”

Who can dispute the good Sen. Henry M. Teller of Colorado?

For lo eight years, the Federal Reserve has waged a ceaseless warfare upon interest rates.

Economic law, history, logic itself, stagger under the onslaughts.

We suspect that economic reality will one day prevail. Read More

06.04.18- Fed Finds New Way to Blunder
Jim Rickards

If you have defective and obsolete models, you will produce incorrect analysis and bad policy every time.

There’s no better example of this than the Federal Reserve.

The Fed uses equilibrium models to understand an economy that is not an equilibrium system; it’s a complex dynamic system.

The Fed uses the Phillips curve to understand the relationship between unemployment and inflation when 50 years of data say there is no fixed relationship. Read More

06.02.18- The Fed's Mission Impossible
Danielle DiMartino Booth

View Video

06.01.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Modern Civil War Without Guns - So Far!
Monty Pelerin's World


Does our country run the risk of a civil war? Is such a horrible event even possible today?

The answers are “Yes” and “Yes.” Furthermore, a case can be made that we are already in such a civil war.

I received the following via email. The main piece was written by Jack Minzey, a person  I was unfamiliar with.  His take on this issue seems unique and accurate! According to him,  we are already in a Civil War whether  we recognize it or not. Read More

05.31.18- Deutsche Bank Forced to Run Decisions by Fed, Stock Hits All-Time Low
Martin Baccardax

What do we all have to fear from a collapse of Deutsche Bank? A shorter list would count what we don’t have to fear from a collapse of Deutsche Bank.

Now comes news that the Fed has privately placed the bank on a list of ‘troubled’ lenders, meaning that DB has had to run decision-making through the Fed for at least the past year. A process that, until now and despite being a publicly traded company using the capital of untold numbers of investors, has been shrouded in total secrecy.

The bottom line is this: Deutsche Bank is unequivocally too big to fail. No matter how catastrophic their bad bets have been, no matter how criminal their behavior, they will be bailed out on the backs of taxpayers. Read More

05.30.18- The new Fed director wants the US middle class to pay for the next crisis
Gefira

New figureheads arrive at the Fed every so often. When they do, they inherit all of the policy decisions that were made before them.

Imagine suddenly waking up behind the wheel of a semi loaded with nitroglycerine, driving 150MPH, on a frozen water-slicked sheet of ice a mile deep, through a tunnel made of rings of fire, with bridge abutments every five feet to your left and right.

Welcome to the Fed. You’ve inherited: Read More

05.29.18- Why Big Banks LOVE Paying Fines to the U.S. Government
Anthony Wile

The Double Standard

When Volkswagen executives found out U.S. regulations would kill one of their diesel models, they pulled some tricks. They fooled U.S. regulators by installing software which misrepresented the emissions released.

But the U.S. found out, and arrested the top executives involved.

One of them, a German citizen, was sentenced to 7 years in prison late 2017 for his role in the scandal.

That’s a pretty intense prison sentence for trying to trick regulators. The government says that society is the victim in this case, because the regulations are an attempt to keep the environment clean. Read More

05.28.18- America 2018: Dicier by the Day
Charles Hugh Smith

Scrape all this putrid excrescence off and we're left with a non-fantasy reality: everything is getting dicier by the day. 

If we look beneath the cheery chatter of the financial media and the tiresomely repetitive Russian collusion narrative (that's unraveling as the Ministry of Propaganda's machinations are exposed), we find that America in 2018 is dicier by the day.

The more you know about the actual functioning of critical subsystems, the keener your awareness of the system's fragility, reliance on artifice and an unceasing flow of "free money." Keynesian economics boils down to a very simple premise: a slowing or stagnant economy can be goosed by distributing plenty of "free money" which can be blown on either speculation or goods and services. Read More

05.26.18- The End Of Stimulus?
(And The Start Of The Crash?)

Chris Martenson

What the most important chart in the world is predicting

Back in January of 2016 we saw what appeared to be, and in my opinion should have been, the end of the Everything Bubble blown by the word's central banking cartel.

The carnage started in the emerging markets. Highly-leveraged positions and carry trades began to unwind. That's a fancy way of saying that all the big, sophisticated investors -- who were busy borrowing heavily in countries with cheap money (the US, Japan, and Europe) and using that debt to speculate in markets offering higher yields (junk debt, emerging markets, stocks, etc.) -- began to reverse their trades. Read More

05.25.18- There Is No Exit: Let’s Just Accept The Fact That The Fed Will Not Be
Reducing Its Balance Sheet

Graham Summers

“Once a Central Bank begins to employ ZIRP and QE for years at a time, there is no going back. If you don’t believe me…”

by Graham Summers of Gains Pains & Capital

Let’s cut through the BS about Central Bank Balance Sheet reduction. There. Is. No. Exit.

Once a Central Bank begins to employ ZIRP and QE for years at a time, there is no going back. If you don’t believe me, take a look at Japan. Read More

05.24.18- Speculation on Hyperinflation
Gary Christenson

Hyperinflation Myths:

  1. Hyperinflation occurs in banana-republics and not modern western countries.
  2. Hyperinflation cannot occur in the United States because the U.S. issues dollars – the reserve currency.

BOTH IDEAS ARE INCORRECT. For more, read Bill Holter:

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF HYPERINFLATION? Read More

05.23.18- America’s long-term challenge #3: destruction of the currency
Simon Black

On April 2, 1792, George Washington signed into law what’s commonly referred to as the Mint and Coinage Act.

It was one of the first major pieces of legislation in the young country’s history… and it was an important one, because it formally created the United States dollar.

Under the Act, the US dollar was defined as a particular amount of copper, silver, or gold. It wasn’t just a piece of paper.

A $10 “eagle” coin, for example, was 16.04 grams of pure gold, whereas a 1 cent coin was 17.1 grams of copper. Read More

05.22.18- A Central Banker’s Plan for Your Money
Brian Maher

Jim Rickards calls them “silent dog whistles.”

Through these signals, in the frequencies beyond normal human hearing… elites communicate with each other.

Their communications are public.

But their language can be so thick, so technical — so innocuous — not one in a hundred can crack it open.

Only the intended audience can penetrate the deeper message within… and that audience is their fellow elites. Read More

05.21.18- The Fed’s Been Lying to Us About Inflation; It’s Frighteningly High
Lee Adler

Even by the deeply flawed and misleading Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation is at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target. By other measures that more accurately portray inflation, it is well above target.

The Fed will not be deterred from continuing to tighten, continuing to remove money from the system, just because of the silliness that “CPI missed expectations.”

It’s still at least 2%… and it’s heating up. Read More

05.19.18- Blundering Into Recession
Jim Rickards

June 12 is just three weeks away.

That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, the Fed’s interest rate policy arm, will in all likelihood raise interest rates another 0.25%, the seventh such rate increase since the “liftoff” in interest rates in December 2015.

The market is currently putting the odds of a rate hike at 95%.

This is the most aggressive tempo of rate hikes of any major central bank and puts U.S. policy rates significantly higher than those in the U.K., Japan or eurozone. Read More

05.18.18- Are We About To Reach That ‘Margin Call’ Moment, Again?
Mark St. Cyr

Over this past weekend the movie “Margin Call” (2011, Lionsgate™) made its way back into the rotation on my cablebox.

For those who have never seen this movie, regardless if you are involved in stock trading, it is a must watch on so many levels, be it general business, corporate leadership, department interactions, skullduggery, familial, as well as personal backstabbing, the list goes on. It is absolutely loaded with a plethora of take-aways of the real-life-lesson variety. I say this because I have been involved around, in, as well as been at the receiving end of the proverbial “poisoned dagger.” Not on Wall Street, but within other fields. Read More

05.17.18- "The Bond Spike Confirms The End Of Experimental Monetary-Policy Rally"
Bill Blain

“Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. Geniuses remove it.“

What we got in markets this fine and dandy morning? The clue might be in the weather. Blue skies over London, and the forecast is for a great weekend. Compare and contrast with the snow and storms of just 2 months ago. The outlook is fine – so why is everyone so bleak about market prospects?

Perhaps it’s the sheer complexity of all the awful bad news in geopolitics, rates, flows and all the other what-evers that drive market sentiment? Treasury yields (the 10-year US bond rate) have decisively breached 3%, spiking all the way up to 3.11% this morning. Read More

05.16.18- The Fed is Corrupt: Period
Karl Denninger

This flat-out blows my mind.

The State of Illinois has a very large unfunded pension liability and will likely have to pay much of it off by raising taxes. The Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability estimated the state’s unfunded liability at $129.1 billion in mid-2017,[1] which was about 19% of state personal income.[2] Benefits to public employees are protected under the Illinois Constitution, and a recent attempt to reduce the unfunded liability by reducing retirees’ benefits was struck down by the Illinois Supreme Court.[3] So, assuming that the state can’t reduce its current pension obligations and that it wants to maintain its current level of services, Illinois residents are going to have to pay higher taxes. What’s the best way to do it? Read More

05.15.18- Can we blame the bankers?
Ann Pettifor

At a Rethinking Economics conference in Oslo last month I pointed out that western politicians and economists are repeating policy errors of the 1930s. The pattern of a global financial crash, followed by austerity in Europe and the UK, led in those years to the rise of populism, authoritarianism and ultimately fascism. The scale of economic and political failures and missteps led in turn to a catastrophic world war.

Today that pattern – of a global financial crash, austerity and a rise in political populism and authoritarianism – is evident in both Europe and the US. And talk of war has risen to the top of the US political agenda. Why have we not learnt lessons from the past? Read More

05.14.18- How the Financial System Actually Works:
The Truth About All Central Bank
Controlled Nations

Richard Enos

The website endthefed.org introduces us to the Federal Reserve as follows:

The Federal Reserve, “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States of America that was created in 1913 by Congress. It is a banking cartel that has a government-granted monopoly on the creation of money and credit. The Fed literally loans “money” (Federal Reserve Notes) into existence. Federal Reserve Notes are paper promises backed by nothing of intrinsic value and they are only functioning as money because the government forces them on the public through legal tender laws.  Federal Reserve Notes are referred to as dollars but are not. Read More

05.12.18- Inside Gold-USD Relationship
Ashraf Laidi

While a strengthening USD is often cited as a catalyst for lower gold prices, gold has held strong during the USD’s recent leg up.

It bears remembering that there is not a 1:1 inverse correlation in the movements of the two. Especially in an economy so heavily impacted by unprecedented levels of debt and Fed policy, casting a wider net for potential catalysts and pricing factors is the sensible approach.

The US dollar index has breached above its 200-day moving average for the first time in 12 months and continues to do so for the past 7 trading days. Despite that, gold remains above its 200-day moving average as it has done since December. Read More

05.11.18- Beware Of The Economic Debt Bomb
Peter J Tanous

"There is a sword of Damocles hanging over the head of every American. Sadly, it is about to drop."

Sorry for the drama, but I need to get your attention.

We know that the Fed has kept interest rates low for many years until recently. Why did it do so? Here are some of the reasons we have been told:

  • The Fed wanted to stimulate the economy.

  • The Fed wanted to make it easier for Americans to borrow. Read More

05.10.18- The Fed Rips Off “Band-Aid” of Quantitative Easing (QE) as Mortgage Rates Soar
Peter Reagan

As the “Big Correction” continues, there are going to be a couple of big lessons to learn from when it comes to the U.S. economy…

One of them will be what happens when you use solutions like Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up an economy with indirectly “printed money” after a recession.

Another will be the major mortgage rate and housing price jumps that have happened recently that will likely cause market distress.

Both will involve ripping off an economic “Band-Aid” while hoping the U.S. economy doesn’t keep “bleeding” afterwards. Read More

05.09.18- The Fed Has Robbed the Future
Brian Maher

Has the future finally arrived?

The Federal Reserve intervened massively to cage the menace of depression after the 2008 financial crisis.

Quantitative easing, zero interest rates and the rest of the central banker’s emergency kit came to bear.

The heroics “worked.”

The crisis has passed. And the economy is presently in its 108th month of recovery.

Yes, the central bank may have saved the present with its emergency medicine. Read More

05.08.18- Has the Fed really turned hawkish?
Or is it just an act?

John Stepek

Like it or not, you can’t ignore the Federal Reserve’s influence in the markets.

The US central bank sets the interest rate on the world’s most important currency, and therefore has an impact on the entire global financial system.

The question for markets now is: has the “easy money” Fed of the past several decades been replaced by a “no more Mr Nice Guy” Fed in the form of Jerome Powell?

Let’s see. Read More

05.07.18- Central Bank Gold Purchases: Stunning Impact On The Gold Market
Steve St Angelo

The switch from Central bank gold sales to purchases had a big impact on the gold market.  Precious metals investors fail to realize that Central banks sold a staggering amount of gold into the market up until 2009.  It’s also quite interesting that Central banks became net purchasers after the 2008 Market meltdown.

There’s been a lot of speculation as to why the Central banks decided to liquidate a portion of their gold holdings, but what we do know is that the amount equaled less than half of the United States supposed gold reserves were sold into the market from 2002-2009.  Furthermore, Official Gold sales took place right at the very same time the Gold ETF market took off. Read More

05.05.18- Market Report: FOMC Minutes Mark The Low
Alasdair Macleod

This week, gold and silver traded lower ahead of the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. As widely expected, there was no change in the target for the Fed Funds Rate, which will probably be raised a quarter point in June. Yesterday, precious metals began to recover their poise, improving from the lows of earlier in the week.

Gold was down $14 from last Friday’s close to trade at $1310 in early European trade this morning (Friday), and silver was down ten cents at $16.40 on the same time scale. Read More

05.04.18- Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply
Wolf Richter

These are getting to be serious amounts.

The QE Unwind is ramping up toward cruising speed. The Fed’s balance sheetfor the week ending May 2, released this afternoon, shows a total drop of $104 billion since the beginning of the QE Unwind in October – to the lowest level since June 11, 2014.

During the years and iterations of QE, the Fed acquired $3.4 trillion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. The mortgages underlying those MBS are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The “balance sheet normalization,” as the Fed calls it, was nudged into motion last October. But the pace accelerates every quarter until it reaches up to $50 billion a month in Q4 this year. Read More

05.03.18- They Should Know: Fed Says Bitcoin “Like Regular Currency” (Which Isn’t Really A Good Thing)
David Morris

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has provided some high-profile validation for a core premise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. A blog post this week based on an earlier Fed research paper said that “bitcoin units have no intrinsic value” – but added that currencies “such as the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Swiss france . . . have no intrinsic value either.”

The post, titled “Three Ways Bitcoin is Like Regular Currency,” doesn’t precisely endorse Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. In another recent report, the St. Louis Fed was critical of Bitcoin’s inefficiency. Read More

05.02.18- The Fed Has Successfully Destroyed The U.S. Housing Market
Aaron Layman

A few days ago a friend of mine sent me a link to some “insight” on the coming economic developments that we should be preparing for in terms of debts and deficits. The company providing this research piece has over a $trillion in assets under management. Since I have a healthy skepticism of anything the financial “services” industry is selling I decided to give it a read. It was very informative, partly due to a complete fundamental ignorance of basic economics, but also because of an obvious contradiction with the author’s stated assumptions.

As I mentioned to my friend in a private message, I see the same fallacious arguments repeatedly within the housing industry. America is great, deficits and debt don’t matter. Rah, Rah, Rah! I get it. Read More

05.01.18- Deutsche Bank Calculates The Level Of The New "Fed Put"
Tyler Durden

Back in February, in the immediate aftermath of the Feb. 5 volocaust, we quoted a troubling - for stock bulls - statement from outgoing NY Fed president Bil Dudley, who revealed that not only was the recent market correction not "a big drop", but that the Fed's "Powell Put" was far lower.

Specifically, commenting on the February rout, Dudley said an equity rout like the one that occurred in recent days "has virtually no consequence for the economic outlook" and added that, if the market continued to go down sharply, “that would affect my view,” he said at a New York event, but "this wasn't that big of a bump in the stock market" and " is not a big story for central bankers yet." Read More

04.30.18- Economics 101: Who Sets Prices?
Alasdair Macleod

Since the advent of nineteenth century socialism, politicians and economists in the centre ground have argued for a balanced approach, where vital services are provided by the state, and capitalism is left to provide the rest. Vital services in a modern economy are taken to include pensions, unemployment and disability benefits, healthcare and education. Most states also provide communications, such as rail and road infrastructure, electrical grids and perhaps telecommunications. They often own and operate on behalf of the people utilities, such as the railways, ports, electricity and water. Read More

04.28.18- Weekend Rant: The Next Crash...Making The Fed An Instrument For Disaster
Nomi Prins

Warning: What you are about to read is not about Russia, the 2016 election, or the latest person to depart from the White House in a storm of tweets. It’s the Beltway story hiding in plain sight with trillions of dollars in play and an economy to commandeer.

While we’ve been bombarded with a litany of scandals from the Oval Office and the Trump family, there’s a crucial institution in Washington that few in the media seem to be paying attention to, even as President Trump quietly makes it his own.  Read More

04.27.18- Capitalism Works For Capitalists
Paul Craig Roberts

Beep, Beep, Beep, Beep, Beep . . . It starts at 6:30 AM and, together with numerous other stressful construction noises, goes through breakfast, lunch, cocktail hour and dinner. In south Walton county, construction crews are permitted to work from 7 AM until 7 PM six days a week Monday through Saturday. Residents miss the white construction crews. They didn’t get going until 8 AM, knocked off at 3:30 PM, and didn’t work on Saturdays But the Mexican construction crews produce non-stop construction noise 72 hours a week.

Construction noise is relentless. OSHA has added to it with beep-beeping machines. The noise, all penetrating, is very stressful. Many years ago on a large construction site a heavy equipment operator backed over a workman who, like the operator, was not paying attention. Read More

04.26.18- The Real Inflation Rate May Signal That the U.S. Economy is in a Death Spiral
Birch Gold Group

Just like a car with a bad cooling system, the U.S. economy may be overheating, and could break down soon. Why?

Aside from trade wars, geopolitical tension, and debt, inflation might stand center-stage as the final nail in the U.S. economic “coffin”.

According to Torsten Slok, the Chief International Economist at Deutsche Bank, inflation “is the mother of all risks here”.

You see, the floundering U.S. dollar, tight labor market, Quantitative Easing and trade wars have all paved the way for rising inflation. And, in a recent survey of global fund managers conducted by Bank of America, 82% expect the CPI index to keep climbing over the next year. Read More

04.25.18- Fox in the Hen House: Why Interest Rates Are Rising
Ellen Brown

The Fed is aggressively raising interest rates, although inflation is contained, private debt is already at 150% of GDP, and rising variable rates could push borrowers into insolvency. So what is driving the Fed’s push to “tighten”?

On March 31st the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time in 3 years and signaled its intention to raise rates twice more in 2018, aiming for a fed funds target of 3.5% by 2020. LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) has risen even faster than the fed funds rate, up to 2.3% from just 0.3% 2-1/2 years ago. Read More

04.24.18- Fake Markets Produce A Fake Economy
John Rubino

Automtaic Earth’s Raúl Ilargi Meijer just posted an essential essay on the world’s financial markets – or what used to be the world’s financial markets. Here’s an excerpt:

“[Price discovery] is the process of determining the price of an asset in the marketplace through the interactions of buyers and sellers”, says Wikipedia. Perhaps not a perfect definition, but it’ll do. They add: “The futures and options market serve all important functions of price discovery.”

What follows from this is that markets need price discovery as much as price discovery needs markets. They are two sides of the same coin. Markets are the mechanism that makes price discovery possible, and vice versa. Functioning markets, that is. Read More

04.23.18- "Ice Nine" Comes to China
Jim Rickards

The war on cash has been going on for decades. The U.S. abolished the $500 bill in late 1969. (The old $500 bill featured a portrait of President William McKinley, by the way. I remember seeing a few when I was a kid.)

Today’s $100 bill is only worth 10 cents on the dollar compared with the $100 bill of 1969.

Europe will abolish the 500 euro this year. We all recall what happened in India in late 2016 when India abolished the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes (worth about $10 and $20, respectively); there was mass chaos as peasants lined up to turn in the old notes for digital credit. Read More

04.21.18- Inflationary Reality vs. The Efforts of the Fed to Manage Expectations
Frank Shostak

According to Ludwig von Mises,

Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term 'inflation' to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. Read More

04.20.18- Now Even a Fed Dove Homes in on the “Everything Bubble”
Wolf Richter

Bonds, junk bonds, spreads, commercial real estate, leveraged loans, over-leveraged companies… all get named as risks to the banks. This is why tightening will continue.

“If we have learned anything from the past, it is that we must be especially vigilant about the health of our financial system in good times, when potential vulnerabilities may be building,” explained Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard in a speech in Washington, D.C., this morning.

This was a reference to a time-honored banker adage, now mostly forgotten after nearly nine years of easy money: Bad deals are made in good times. Read More

04.19.18- Danielle Dimartino Booth on the $240 Trillion Global Debt Bomb
Boom Bust

View Video

04.18.18- It’s Been a Good Run: 70 Years of Dollar Dominance Draws to a Close
Alex Deluce

The great transition is moving slowly enough that most people haven’t noticed yet, but the world is steadily decoupling from the USD.

It’s a long game, to be sure. As gold hoards are amassed and repatriated, as the petro-yuan becomes a more widely accepted form of petro-commerce, as the greenback is printed into oblivion and obscurity, US paper fiat currency is losing both its prominence, status, and power both within and without American borders.

If the gold standard were to be reinstated, control of the dollar would revert to free market forces instead of the whim of the Federal Reserve. It would mean that each dollar would have its equivalent in gold, as it did prior to 1913. Read More

04.17.18- There Is No ‘Patriotic Duty’
to Pay More Tax

Simon Black

In 1873 during the administration of Ulysses S. Grant, the government abolished its income tax.

Aside from a single episode in 1894, there would be no income tax in the United States of America for nearly 40 years.

It was during this period that the United States emerged as the largest, most powerful economy in the world.

And the country achieved this with no income tax. No inflation. And very little public debt.

Today it’s entirely different. The dollar has lost over 99% of its value since 1913. Read More

04.16.18- Why Trade Wars Will
Unleash Central Banks

Nomi Prins

There’s been an abundance of coverage surrounding the recent steel and aluminum tariffs. Those measures could hurt more sectors than they help within the U.S. In particular, it could damage businesses that require metals because they’ll have to pay more for raw materials.

Trade wars also escalate geopolitical tensions and economic hardships the world over. They have in the past. When the U.S. imposed tariffs in the 1930’s to try to relieve the Great Depression at home, they achieved the opposite effect. Read More

04.14.18- Another Weekend Rant: As War Drums Beat for Syria, Remember, Lies and Propaganda Started Nearly Every War in US History
John Vibes

War is one of the most primitive and senseless manifestations of the human experience, so naturally, most sane people with families, ambitions and kind hearts want nothing to do with such things. Unfortunately, as we are seeing with the Syrian escalation, governments thrive on war, as it gives them a pressing excuse to grab more power and take extrajudicial measures—both at home and abroad.

To get around the obstacle of public opinion, governments have an extensive history of lying their way into war. This is hard to believe for people who think that government has their best interest in mind, but it is something that rulers have been doing since the beginning of time. In the modern United States, people are led to believe that the establishment accidentally flounders its way into war. Read More

04.13.18- Ron Paul: Assad Gassing His Own People is “Total Nonsense”
Jay Syrmopoulos

Former Congressman Ron Paul has strongly argued following the alleged chemical gas attack blamed on the Syrian government that it makes no logical sense for Assad to order a gas attack, and has called the accusations a telltale sign of a false flag attack meant to provide justification for the U.S. military to maintain a presence in Syria.

“An incident will occur and somebody will get blamed and it’s usually a false flag,” said Paul.

“Right now, recently, it’s all been in Syria, ‘Assad did it! Assad did it!’” explained the former congressman. “No proof at all.”  Read More

04.12.18- The Fed is Officially Screwed: Inflation's Over 2% Despite 6 Rate Hikes
Graham Summers

The Fed is now officially screwed. 

The single biggest concern for the Fed is inflation. The reason for this is that US Treasuries are currently in a massive bubble. And those Treasury yields trade based on inflation.

If inflation rises, so do Treasury yields. 

If Treasury yields rise, Treasury prices fall. 

If Treasury prices fall, the bond bubble begins to burst.  Read More

04.11.18- Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky
David Stockman

The election of 2016 was supposed to be the most disruptive break with the status quo in modern history, if ever. On the single most important decision of his tenure, however, the Donald has lined-up check-by-jowl with Barry and Dubya, too.

That is to say, Trump's new Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, amounts to Janet Yellen in trousers and tie. In fact, you can make it a three-part composite by adding Bernanke with a full head of hair and Greenspan sans the mumble. Read More

04.10.18- Ayn Rand’s Hymn To Money
Antal E. Fekete

Gold Money Is the Root of All Good; Paper Money Is the Root of All Evil~ A Blueprint for a New Gold Coin Standard

Millions of people who have read Ayn Rand’s 1957 monumental work “Atlas Shrugged” must have been impressed by an insert that could be entitled “Hymn to Money”. This insert is buried in the 1600 pages of the novel and is difficult to find. However, it is a self-contained literary masterpiece in its own right. For these reasons it may be a good idea to publish it separately. Read More

04.09.18- Inflation Alert: Prepare For The Coming Price Spikes BEFORE Costs Are Passed On
To The Consumer

Graham Summers

“Initially, corporations will “eat” these increased costs…eventually corporations are FORCED to rise prices.” Here’s a look at the coming inflation…

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming. Read More

04.07.18- Weekend Rant: The Central Bank Effect - The Best Friend of The One Percent
Tom Lewis

When it was created in 1913, the Federal Reserve was supposed to stabilize the US dollar. That was its stated purpose. The reality has proven to be quite different. The gap between rich and poor keeps widening. Today, more than half of US workers have less than $25,000 set aside for retirement. Thirty-six percent have savings of less than $1,000.

The Federal Reserve has almost limitless power to print paper money, extend credit and create debt, thus creating the illusion of prosperity where none exists. At one time, hard work could provide a secure future for generations. Now, a person is fortunate if hard work can help them get through the day. Read More

04.06.18- Futures Tumble Amid Tariff, Payrolls, Powell Chaos
Tyler Durden

When summarizing yesterday's market action, which saw the market surge for the third consecutive day and culminated with Europe's best day since June 2016, we said that it all boiled down to one question: "Trade war or no trade war?"

Until 6pm, the answer was the latter, however with one announcement Trump flipped everything on its head, and just as the president called for an additional $100 billion in Chinese tariffs, futures tumbled, with Dow futs plunging over 400 points as escalating trade war with China was back front and center. Read More

04.05.18- The First Wave of Inflation is Already Here… The Next One is the Bad One
Graham Summers

The Prices Paid Index just rose for its fourth straight month to 78.1: its highest level since April 2011.

Why does this matter?

Because it’s a MAJOR warning that inflation is coming.

You see, when inflation hits, it doesn’t hit all at once. Instead it rolls out into the economy in stages.

The first stage occurs at the “production” level of the economy. In this stage, managers at large manufacturers/production companies will see a spike in the cost of goods and services they buy in order to supply their firms.  Read More

04.04.18- From the Leader of the Free World to Banana Republic: Fiat Debt 101
Paul Craig Roberts

The thing about never weaning the US off emergency stimulus conditions for the past decade is that it has left the Fed without moderate tools to combat the coming recession.

If you go to the hospital and they give you morphine once so that you don't have to feel short-term, significant pain, fine. Taking morphine for the next 10 consecutive years because it's just easier that way? Not so fine. Read More

04.03.18- How The Federal Reserve Drives The Economy
Kelsey Williams

With each succeeding day, obsession with the Federal Reserve continues. And the obsession is a good indicator of just how misinformed most of us are.

This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation.

To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us?

That question might be better answered by asking where they/we have been. And not just since last month or last quarter. Read More

04.02.18- Fed mistakes could spark ‘unusually fast’ bear market, ‘lost decade’ for stocks
Ryan Vlastelica

Uncertainty over trade policy may be the primary driver of the U.S. stock market at the moment, but the real policy risk facing equities could be coming from the Federal Reserve, with the potential downside a lot more pronounced than investors are currently anticipating. 

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the economic outlook had strengthened, but he painted a mixed picture about what policy might look like going forward. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates but indicated it would only do a total of three rate hikes in 2018, which some saw as a dovish signal given that a number of investors had expected four this year. However, the Fed pushed up its expected rate path in 2019 and 2020. Read More

03.31.18- Why Do Media Idiots Love Stormy Daniels But Ignore a Totally Rigged
Stock Market and Economy?

Christopher Irons

In this podcast, QTR asks the question of why the Stormy Daniels "controversy" is even in the news, while issues like the Federal Reserve potentially rigging the stock market are never talked about and often even frowned upon by the financial media.

QTR digs into why consensual sex by two people that lack moral compasses in the year 2006 is in any way worth reporting on and confirms the existence of the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets, explaining the executive order that put the group in place during the Reagan administration. Read More

03.30.18- Central banks manipulating & suppressing gold prices
Ronan Manly

Central bank gold price suppression is a well-documented fact. Central banks have a long and colorful history of manipulating the gold price. This manipulation has taken many shapes and forms over the years. It also shouldn’t be surprising that central banks intervene in the gold market given that they also intervene in all other financial markets. It would be naive to think that the gold market should be any different.

n fact, gold is a special case. Gold to central bankers is like the sun to vampires. They are terrified of it, yet in some ways they are in awe of it. Terrified since gold is an inflation barometer and an indicator of the relative strength of fiat currencies. The gold price influences interest rates and bond prices. Read More

03.29.18- The Real Reason Why Stock Markets Will Continue To Crumble This Year
Brandon Smith

Public sentiment on the economy is generally influenced by to two false indicators — the national unemployment rate and stock markets. This is not to say the average person tracks either of these numbers very vigorously; they don’t. What they do is hear these numbers on the morning news, the radio news on their way to work (if they are employed) or they hear them on the evening news just before bed. If the jobless rate is low and the Dow is high, then all is right with the world, at least financially.

When it comes to the economy, most people are lost. Read More

03.28.18- Who Needs Wall Street When You Can Have A Monetary Unicorn?
David Stockman

The single most important price in all of capitalism is the interest rate----and at all points on the maturity curve. And the single most important truth about honest interest rates is that they must be discovered by markets, not imposed by the state.

We got to ruminating about those core propositions when we read that San Francisco Fed head, John Williams, may be headed toward the true #2 job at the Fed. That is, President of the New York Fed----the joint that actually runs the casinos domiciled in the canyons of Wall Street. Read More

03.27.18- The Fake Recovery: Risk Asset Price Increases Have Been Simple Inflation
Alex Deluce

Central Banks: Rapid Asset Inflation is Destroying Purchasing Power

There is a relatively fixed universe of stocks to buy in the US. The Wilshire 5000 is made up of almost every single nationally listed, SEC-reporting company on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq, and is comprised of about 6,700 individual companies.

For the vast majority of American stock investors, institutional and retail alike, that’s where their investment money is going to go. And when the Fed creates an investment universe in which banks are simply awash in ZIRP cash, a lot of that money is going end up bidding up this relatively limited pool of equities. Read More

03.26.18- What Fed Chair Powell Forgot To Mention
MN Gordon

Son of the Imperial City

What are the chances of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being wrong?  The chances he’ll be wrong on the economy’s growth prospects, the direction of the federal funds rate, and inflation itself?  Our guess is his chances of being wrong are quite high.

The new central planner-in-chief. Central banks are facing a special case of the socialist calculation problem pertaining to the financial system. Like the comrades in the former Eastern Bloc, who tried to adjust their plans based on prices they were able to observe in the capitalist West, their best bet is to simply follow market rates. Unfortunately market rates – especially at the short end of the yield curve – are subject to an observer-participant feedback loop with the Fed. Read More

03.24.18- From Zero Interest-Rate Policy to Zero Options Left: Prepare for Chaos
Michael Pento

Minor to moderate pain inflicted and felt in real time is one of the great gifts of the unfettered free market. If you overextend yourself, make foolish bets, you pay, immediately and justly, as the market’s ruthless efficiency is exacted via others’ recognition of the opportunity to profit from your poor performance.

In this way, equilibrium is maintained. If, via dint of central bankery, such pain is delayed, it simply accumulates. A decade of manipulated prosperity has resulted in a largely anesthetized market that has forgotten what true pain feels like. There will be no controlling the pain when the dam breaks and system collapses. Investments in risk assets will be eviscerated across the board. In such an environment, the flight to safety into silver and gold will likely drive unprecedented price appreciation. Read More

03.23.18- When Powell Does It, It’s Policy;
When Traders Do It, It’s Criminality

Martin Armstrong

Traders will use every trick in the book to try to gain an upper hand on their adversaries. It’s a cutthroat world, and one in which there is no winner without a commensurate loser; a true zero-sum game. Your gain is always someone else’s loss.

That said, even small-scale trader behavior and tactics can bleed over from “aggressive and creative” to illegal pretty easily by the letter of regulatory law. To see central banks loudly and proudly and openly boasting of their market manipulations, which have drastic impact on not just market participants but on all citizens (often while cloaking themselves in the fraudulent fabric of ‘public service’) is repugnant. Read More

03.22.18- The Central Bank Bubble: It Will Be Ugly
Alex Deluce

The global economy has been living through a period of central bank insanity, thanks to a little-understood expansion strategy known as quantitative easing, which has destroyed main-street and benefitted wall street. 

Central Banks over the last decade simply created credit out of thin air. Snap a finger, and credit magically appears. Only central banks can perform this type of credit magic. It’s called printing money and they have gone on the record saying they are magic people. Read More

03.21.18- What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
Arkadiusz Sieron

The Federal Open Market Committee will gather today for a two-day meeting. It will be the most important event this week, since Powell will chair the meeting for the first time. Gold investors want to get to know him better as the uncertainty makes them a bit nervous. What should we expect from the new Fed Chair?

First FOMC meeting under Powell as Chair

Do you remember your first bike ride? Or the first date – and kiss? People often fear doing something new. It’s normal. We are status quo creatures. We are afraid of changes. They are risky. Particularly in monetary policy. Indeed, we like technical innovations, but we prefer predictable and conservative banks, don’t we? Read More

03.20.18- Fed Day: Mr. Market Meets Mr. Hyde
Stewart Thomson

  1. It’s very important for gold, bond, and stock market investors to stay focused on the main fundamental price drivers and ignore what may feel exciting but is largely irrelevant to price discovery. Citizen demand from China/India and US central bank policy are the main price drivers for gold.

  2. From 1960 to 1980, US recessions were generally inflationary, and the Fed raised rates during that period. Since then, recessions have carried a deflationary theme, and interest rates have fallen. Read More

03.19.18- Will Rising Interest Rates
Push Gold Higher?

Paul Farrugia

There has been an incredible amount of chatter as to how many times the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in 2018, and the speed at which it will raise them by. For gold investors, the old question lingers, “What will rising interest rates mean for the price of gold?” The simple viewpoint has been that rising rates are bad for gold because gold is not an interest-bearing asset. Why would you own gold if interest rates are rising and gold doesn’t pay you anything?

There are typically two sides to the debate on the impact of gold from the change in interest rates. There are those who see rising interest rates as good for gold, and there are those that see rising interest rates as harmful to the price of gold. But who is right? We look to see which side is correct? Could they both be wrong? Or both are right? Read More

03.17.18- Weekend Rant: The recycling of the US dollars financing the US deficits is going to end
Gijsbert Groenewegen

Hugo Salinas Price wrote an excellent article called 'Bad karma brings bad consequences for those who practice it’ on the unwanted consequences of the trade tariffs imposed by the US. He points out that the accumulation of US dollar reserves in the forex reserves of the central banks is a function of the foreign countries being able to sell (underselling) or export goods to the US. And the US dollars generated rom the exports allows the central banks to buy Treasuries thereby financing the budget deficits of the US that basically transpired since 1971 when the gold standard was abolished by Nixon! Read More

03.16.18- The Fed Has Its Finger On The Button Of A Nuclear Debt Bomb
Brandon Smith

I hear a lot of talk lately in the alternative media (and even the mainstream media) of the potential for World War III. The general assumption when one hears that term is that “nuclear conflict” is imminent. But a world war does not necessarily have to be fought with nukes. For example, we are perhaps already witnessing the first shots fired in a global economic war as the Trump administration gets ready to implement far-reaching trade tariffs. This action might provide cover (or justification) for destructive attacks on the U.S. fiscal system by China, Japan, Russia, the EU, OPEC nations, etc. The ultimate attack being a dumping of their U.S. debt holdings and the death of the dollar’s world reserve status. Read More

03.15.18- Shooting Ourselves In the Foot
Gary Christenson

This article was originally written for Miles Franklin by Gary Christenson. Link is here.

Serious problems affect Americans. Problems first, solutions at the end!

We did what to ourselves? Our representatives, senators, and Presidents, supposedly acting on our behalf, voted for and created what history has shown are huge monetary and fiscal mistakes.

Some will disagree, but consider this partial list: Read More

03.14.18- Will Inflation Burst the Everything Bubble?
Graham Summers

The economic data is now beginning to reveal what the bond market has been screaming for weeks: namely that INFLATION. HAS. ARRIVED.

In the last 24 hours we’ve seen:

  • Core inflation rose 2.2% year over year for the month of February.
  • Media one-year inflation expectations rose to 2.83% from 2.71%
  • Wage data rose at an annualized pace of 3% over the last three months.

The markets have already taken note, with inflationary assets exploding out of downtrends and entering raging bull markets. Read More

03.13.18- Cash vs. Gold vs. Inflation: Would You Prefer $2,000 or $4,900,000?
Peter Krauth

$100,000 kept in cash when the US went off the gold standard in 1933 is now worth an inflation-adjusted $2,000.

The same $100,000 kept in gold? Now worth $4.9M.

Inflation = Game, Set, Match: Gold.

Fears of rising inflation will push the gold price higher. Gold has plenty of room to run up to the top end of its range, near $1,360. If it breaks above that ceiling and heads higher, it won’t take much to test $1,400. Read More

03.12.18- Super-Duper-Irrational Exuberance, Report 11 Mar 2018
Monetary Metals

Think back to the halcyon days of the dot com boom. This was a time after Greenspan declared “irrational exuberance”. Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998, and Greenspan decided to risk propelling exuberance to a level beyond irrational. Super-duper-irrationalexuberance?

Anyway, Greenspan cut interest rates a few times in late 1998. Technology companies were able to raise $5 million or more with just a sketch on a napkin (“serviette” for those outside the US). Companies at a “later stage”, though without revenues, could raise $30 million. A company called “Webvan” was able to raise nearly a billion dollars without ever becoming profitable. Read More

03.10.18- Central Bankers Never Get it Right
Egon von Greyerz

Central bank heads have been at it again last week. And they have clearly all been singing from the same hymn sheet. The messages have been very similar from the bosses of the Fed, ECB and BOJ. The head of the Swedish Riksbank had a different and much more interesting message. More about that later.

Why should we ever listen to any of these self-important central bankers. They are consistently inaccurate in their forecasts and policies. Their timing is always wrong as they are always behind the curve. More importantly they are distorting the natural economic cycles by artificial manipulation of markets and thereby creating booms and busts of an enormous magnitude. Central banks and bankers should not exist. They fulfil no purpose and the world economy would function so much better without them. Read More

03.09.18- New Fed Chairman Hints at Big Policy Change That Could Crush Markets
Peter Reagan

When a CEO or coach takes a new position, they often make drastic changes to distinguish themselves from their predecessor. The new Fed Chairman appears to be no different.

On February 5th, Jerome Powell was sworn in as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. The next day, in his first testimony before Congress, he hinted that some big changes were on his mind.

However, when you’re the head of the world’s most powerful central banking system, making major policy changes can have serious consequences. Read More

03.08.18- MOPE; The Government
Will Never Let It Happen …

Bill Holter

How often have you heard the phrase “the government will never let it happen”? It almost doesn’t matter what the topic is you are talking about, nothing “bad” can ever really happen …or so it is thought. The reason of course is because we are so many years into “MOPE” (management of perspective economics). No matter what has happened in the past, the media, Wall Street, and the government have constantly spun the narrative to lead the “perspective”. MOPE has been with us for such a long time, it is not surprising the public is conditioned into believing nothing bad will EVER happen. Read More

03.07.18- Is Jerome Powell About to End the Famed
“Fed Put”?

Graham Summers

The Fed officially has a new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell. And ever since he took office, it is clear that “something” has changed at the Fed.

That something is the famed “Fed put” or the idea that the Fed would immediately move to prop up stocks any time they began to fall.

Jerome Powell was sworn in as Fed Chair on February 5th 2018. At that time, the market was in the sharp sell-off annotated in the chart below: Read More

03.06.18- Are Subprime Debt Slaves, a Leading Indicator, Worrying the Fed?
Wolf Richter

Credit problems always appear first at the margins.

The new Fed remains a somewhat unknown quantity: There are still four vacancies on the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors that forms the core of the policy-making FOMC. The new Chairman, Jerome Powell, has already shown in his testimony before Congress last week that he may use a little more straight talk than his predecessors, and the markets took notice.

No one knows for sure what this new Fed will look like once the four vacancies are filled. But this new Fed will likely try to push interest rates back to a somewhat more normal level and lighten their balance sheet so that they have some options when the business cycle trips over balled-up credit problems. Read More

03.05.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Now, a Trade War -
Is a Shooting War Next?

Jim Rickards

A popular thesis since the 1930s is that a natural progression exists from currency wars to trade wars to shooting wars. Both history and analysis support this thesis.

Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there is either systemic reform or systemic collapse. The conditions that give rise to currency wars are too much debt and too little growth.

In those circumstances, countries try to steal growth from trading partners by cheapening their currencies to promote exports and create export-related jobs. Read More

03.03.18- Rising Economic Head Winds
Jim Rickards

Remember the “tea party” revolt in 2009–2010 against government bailouts and government spending?

Remember the “fiscal cliff” drama of Dec. 31, 2012, when Congress raised taxes and cut spending to avoid a debt default and government shutdown?

Remember the actual government shutdown in October 2013 as Republicans held the line against more government spending?

Well, congratulations if you do, because everyone else seems to have forgotten. Read More

03.02.18- An Apocalyptic Paul Tudor Jones Warns The Fed Is About To Lose Control
Tyler Durden

In a striking interview with Goldman's Allison Nathan, legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones argues that US inflation is set to accelerate sharply, making bonds a very poor investment, and that the Fed must act swiftly to tackle financial bubbles created by prolonged monetary easing.

Joining such luminaries as Bill Gross and Ray Dalio, who have both claimed the bull market in bonds is over, PTJ joins the choir and warns that "markets disciplined Greece for its budget transgressions. Read More

03.01.18- The Latest in a Long Line: The USD’s Inevitable Fiat-Currency Failure
Tom Lewis

History and memory are funny things. While we can read history and know, intellectually, that things happened, we don’t really internalize that comprehension. When we actually feel the pain of mistakes, we earn memory, which is a valuable bank upon which to draw so we don’t repeat avoidable errors.

Fiat currencies have been tried again and again and again and again throughout history, and they always fail. But because the vast majority of Americans can’t remember a time when America didn’t seem like the immortal ruler of the world, they simply can’t imagine a state of reality where that is not the case. Read More

02.28.18- Lemonade Stand Economics
Gary Christenson

Summary:  Timmy, a precocious ten-year-old opens a lemonade stand and learns about unbacked currencies.

“Dad, I’m excited and ready for business. Mom made me sign an IOU when she gave me sugar and frozen lemonade so I have stuff to sell.” Timmy looked up at his father and smiled in anticipation.

“Great job! This’ll be a learning experience. Here comes your first customer.” James, his father, wanted to be helpful, but expected Timmy to interact with customers.

A retired gentleman pushed his walker toward the lemonade stand and said, “Hi little fellow, I want a cup of that lemonade.” Read More

02.27.18- "Money For Nothin'...
And The Stocks For Free"

Sven Henrich

With apologies to the Dire Straights:

Now look at them yo-yo’s that’s the way you do it
You play the bull on the fin TV
That ain’t workin’ that’s the way you do it
Money for nothin’ and stocks for free

After 9 years of artificial liquidity drenching markets the same game continues in 2018: It’s raining money. Again. Still. Read More

02.26.27.18-.18- The Dirty Work Is Already Done,
Powell’s Just The Fall Guy

MN Gordon

Jerome Powell, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, just completed his third week on the job.  He’s hardly had enough time to learn how to operate the office coffee maker, let alone the all-in-one printer.  He still doesn’t know what roach coach menu items induce a heinous gut bomb.

Yet across the planet, folks high and low are already telling him exactly how he should do his job.  What’s more, they’re passing advanced judgement on things that may or may not happen.  For example, the South China Morning Post recently offered the following opinion:  Read More

02.24.18- An Insider’s Insider to Advise the Fed
Jesse Cohen

Sometimes the most important news is buried so deep it’s not even news. A certain story may be the most important market development by far, but if no one notices and no one understands the significance, it hardly qualifies as news.

We had an event like that last week. The most important financial story I have read in a long time went completely unnoticed. It was not reported in the mainstream media. You will not hear it discussed anywhere, you will not see it reported anywhere. Read More

02.23.18- The End of (Artificial) Stability
Charles Hugh Smith

The central banks'/states' power to maintain a permanent bull market in stocks and bonds is eroding.

There is nothing natural about the stability of the past 9 years. The bullish trends in risk assets are artificial constructs of central bank/state policies. As these policies are reduced or lose their effectiveness, the era of artificial stability is coming to a close.

The 9-year run of Bull-trend stability is ending as a result of a confluence of macro dynamics: Read More

02.22.18- Trump’s New Dark Money Man Takes Over
Nomi Prins

During her last news conference in December, Janet Yellen stood firm on her record stating, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years that we’ve seen this.”

While attempting to lock in her record, Yellen urged, “There’s less to lose sleep about now than has been true for quite some time.”

Well, a lot of people lost sleep these past few days. And they might lose more sleep in the days to come.

Markets were due for a correction. Whether it turns out to be something worse, time will tell. Read More

02.21.18- The Fed’s “Catch 22”
Dave Kranzler

Before diving into the topic, let’s be clear about one thing:  The economic definition of “inflation”  is the increase in money supply relative to the marginal increase of wealth output (GDP) in the economic system for which money supply is created. This is differentiated from “price inflation,” which is “a general rise in prices.”

Money and credit creation in excess of wealth output causes currency devaluation.  It is this currency devaluation that arises from money and credit printing that causes “price inflation.”  More money (and credit) chasing a relatively less amount of “goods.” Read More

02.20.18- The Federal Government Can’t Account for $21 Trillion. Does Anybody Care?
Dr. Terrence Leveck

[Catherine Austin Fitts Note: This article was submitted by Terrence Leveck for publication. It was so substantially edited that we decided to publish at Solari.com. Our readers really want to know where the missing money went and how we get it back!]

On September 10, 2001, then Secretary of the Department of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said that for the 1999 DOD budget, “According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions.”  The War On Waste The following day the US sustained the terrorist attacks that forever changed our world, and this startling revelation was largely forgotten, until recently. Read More

02.19.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Matrix Revealed -
Cartels That Run The World

Jon Rappoport

The following information comes from insider interviews with Ellis Medavoy and Richard Bell, two people I interview extensively in my collection, The Matrix Revealed. This is just a brief taste of what they have to say…

Major institutions on this planet that control Military, Money, Energy, Government, Medical, Corporate, Media, and Education are becoming, more and more, global cartels, horizontally integrated across national borders. Read More

02.17.18- The Worst Threat We Face
Is Right Here At Home

Chris Martenson

The Federal Reserve is ruining us

Last week, volatility made a long-overdue return to the US and global equitymarkets.

It began with a 2-day back-to-back violent drop. Day 3 saw a big rebound, swiftly followed by two more days of gut-wrentching losses.

And then finally, last Friday, the day saw massive swings both high and low, ending with a huge upside run. Read More

02.16.18- New Fed Chairman Will Trigger A Historic Stock Market Crash In 2018
Brandon Smith

Ever since the credit and equities crash of 2008, Americans have been bombarded relentlessly with the narrative that our economy is “in recovery”. For some people, simply hearing this ad nauseam is enough to stave off any concerns they may have for the economy. For some of us, however, it’s just not enough. We need concrete data that actually supports the notion, and for years, we have seen none. In fact, we have heard from officials at the Federal Reserve that the exact opposite is true. They have admitted that the so-called recovery has been fiat driven, and that there is a danger that when the Fed finally stops artificially propping up the economy with constant stimulus and near zero interest rates, the whole farce might come down. Read More

02.15.18- Do Financial Markets Still Exist?
Paul Craig Roberts, Dave Kranzler, Michael Hudson

For many decades the Federal Reserve has rigged the bond market by its purchases. And for about a century, central banks have set interest rates (mainly to stabilize their currency’s exchange rate) with collateral effects on securities prices. It appears that in May 2010, August 2015, January/February 2016, and currently in February 2018 the Fed is rigging the stock market by purchasing S&P equity index futures in order to arrest stock market declines driven by fundamentals, and to push prices back up in keeping with a decade of money creation. 
 
No one should find this a surprising suggestion.  The Bank of Japan has a long tradition of propping up the Japanese equity market with large purchases of equities. The European Central Bank purchases corporate as well as government bonds. Read More

02.14.18- This May Be The Beginning Of The Great Financial Reckoning
Simon Black

Less than two weeks ago, the United States Department of Treasury very quietly released its own internal projections for the federal government’s budget deficits over the next several years.

And the numbers are pretty gruesome.

In order to plug the gaps from its soaring deficits, the Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year.

Then nearly $1.1 trillion next fiscal year.

And up to $1.3 trillion the year after that. Read More

02.13.18- Danielle DiMartino Booth: Don't Count On The Powell Fed To Rescue The Markets
Adam Taggart

The new Fed Chair may break from his predecessors

The recent gut-wrenching drop in asset prices began on the first day of the job for new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

How is Mr. Powell likely to react to a suddenly sick-looking market? Will he step in forcefully to reassure investors that there's a "Powell put" in place as a backstop? Read More

02.12.18- The Fed’s Impossible Choice In Just Three Charts
John Rubino

Critics of “New Age” monetary policy have been predicting that central banks would eventually run out of ways to trick people into borrowing money. There are at least three reasons to wonder if that time has finally come:

Wage inflation is acceleratin

Normally, towards the end of a cycle companies have trouble finding enough workers to keep up with their rising sales. So they start paying new hires more generously. This ignites “wage inflation,” which is one of the signals central banks use to decide when to start raising interest rates. Read More

02.10.18- The Spark That Lights the Wick: Velocity of Money to Ignite Inflation
Tyler Durden

Forget the Trump tax cuts, the Senate budget deal, the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and the collapse in foreign buying of US Treasuries: after years of dormancy, the biggest catalyst for a sharp inflationary spike has finally emerged, and it is none of the above. Behold: the velocity of money.

The velocity of money measures the turnover of dollars, how often they are spent, and then spent again by their recipients, over a certain period of time. It has been falling, more or less on a line, since 2008. Read More

02.09.18- Global Synchronized Bond Collapse
Michael Pento

We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close. 

However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating. Read More

02.08.18- Trump’s New Dark Money Man Takes Over
Nomi Prins

During her last news conference in December, Janet Yellen stood firm on her record stating, “The global economy is doing well. We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years that we’ve seen this.”

While attempting to lock in her record, Yellen urged, “There’s less to lose sleep about now than has been true for quite some time.”

Well, a lot of people lost sleep these past few days. And they might lose more sleep in the days to come.

Markets were due for a correction. Whether it turns out to be something worse, time will tell. Read More

02.07.28- What The Crypto Crash & Stock Market Plunge Have In Common
Adam Taggart

Today saw Jerome Powell sworn into office as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen. Looking at the sea of red across Monday's financial markets, Mr. Powell is very likely *not* having the sort of first day on the job he was hoping for...

Also having a rough start to the week is anyone with a long stock position or a cryptocurrency portfolio.

The Dow Jones closed down over 1,200 points today, building off of Friday's plunge of 666 points. The relentless ascension of stock prices has suddenly jolted into reverse, delivering the biggest 2-day drop stocks have seen in years. Read More

02.06.18- Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten
David Stockman

The US economy is threatened by two giant problems which cause all others to pale into insignificance. We are referring to a rogue central bank that has become an absolute enemy of capitalist prosperity and a fiscal doomsday machine that is hostage to the ceaseless budgetary demands of the Warfare State, the Welfare State and the Baby Boom's demographic imperatives.

Needless to say, both ends of the Acela Corridor are completely oblivious to these twin menaces. Indeed, they are the proverbial elephants in the room, thereby giving rise to a considerable irony: To wit, the GOP party of the elephant, which is supposed to be the palladium of financial rectitude in American politics, has forgotten about them completely. Read More

02.05.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: What the FISA Memo Reveals about the FBI, DNC, GOP–and the sketchy timeline
The Daily Bell Staff

It wasn’t the bombshell everyone hoped for. But the release of the FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) memo did corroboratewhat we already knew: the government is corrupt.

In fact, the contents of the memo should be disturbing to everyone. But Bill Binney, Thomas Drake, and Edward Snowden revealed much worse. Americans are desensitized to immense abuses of their rights.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Clinton Campaign paid Christopher Steele $160,000 to dig up information on Trump team members including Carter Page. Steele also provided this information to the FBI. Read More

02.03.18- Fed’s QE Unwind Accelerates Sharply
Wolf Richter

With a sense of urgency. No more dilly-dallying around.

The Fed’s balance sheet for the week ending January 31, released this afternoon, completes the fourth month of QE-unwind. And it’s starting to be a doozie.

This “balance sheet normalization” impacts two types of assets: Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities (MBS) that the Fed acquired during the years of QE and maintained afterwards. Read More

02.02.18- Yellen Starts Work At Brookings Institution On Monday
Tyler Durden

A glitch in the monetary matrix?

Fed watchers will recall that shortly after he departed the Fed to make way for Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke first joined the Brookings Institution in DC (before also joining PIMCO and Citadel as an advisor), where he became blogger emeritus. Fast forward a little over three years, when deja vu has hit, and as Steve Liesman reported moments ago, Janet Yellen - who is still technically employed by the Fed until this weekend - will begin work Monday morning as a distinguished fellow at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC Read More

02.01.18- The Dollar Breakdown:
A Sign of Inflation to Come?

Mishka vom Dorp

Recently, we saw the dollar index (the DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of the world’s major currencies, break below its support of 91 for the first time since January of 2015 (Figure 1).

This event may signal the most important trend of 2018: the breakdown of the dollar. Read More

01.31.18- Big Little Lies by Central Bankers
Sven Henrich

How stupid do central bankers think we are? By account of their communications and actions the answer is: Very.

Just in the past 24 hours we got a heap of communications that can be considered cringeworthy at best, highly disingenuous more likely. But it all fits with a script that has been unfolding for years.

After all central bank intervention was supposed to be an emergency driven policy to re-inflate a global economy and help financial institutions at the brink of collapse back to solvency and health.

The big little lie: Central banks would nurse economies back to health and then normalize their policies and unwind their balance sheets. Truth: It’s never going to happen. Read More

01.30.18- We’re Getting A Stock Market Correction (At Best) Or A Crash (At Worst)
Jim Rickards

I started in the Treasury bond business in 1985 after a 10-year career in commercial banking. I retired as a senior officer of Citibank that year at a relatively young age and made the move to Wall Street.

My firm was Greenwich Capital Markets, one of a select group of “primary dealers” allowed to transact directly with the Federal Reserve. Monetary policy is conducted through open-market operations run by a trading desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Read More

01.29.18- The Fed Will Ignite The Next “Financial Crisis”
Lance Roberts

There seems to be a very large consensus the markets have entered into a “permanently high plateau,” or an era in which price corrections in asset prices have been effectively eliminated through fiscal and monetary policy.

Partnering with this fairytale-like mindset is an overwhelming sense of complacency. Throughout the entire monetary ecosystem, there is a rising consensus that “debt doesn’t matter” as long as interest rates remain low. Of course, the ultra-low interest rate policy administered by the Federal Reserve is responsible for the “yield chase” which has fostered a massive surge in debt in the U.S. since the “financial crisis.”  Read More

01.27.18- Beware These Mischievous Actions Behind the Fed’s Curtain
Birch Gold Group

Sometimes we get the impression that the Fed has absolutely no clue what they’re doing.

It’s almost like they can’t make up their mind when it comes to monetary policy. On one hand, they’re raising interest rates, but are also leaving the 2018 policy outlook unchanged.

And on the other hand, in spite of the evidence I’ll point to in a second, they’re still talking about “negative” interest rates over at the St. Louis Fed: Read More

01.26.18- Fed Nominee Marvin Goodfriend Lied to the Senate about Taxing Cash
Tho Bishop

The government shutdown wasn’t long enough to delay the nomination hearing for an economist who could be considered to be one of the “worst Fed nominees of all time.” While most of the headlines generated from Marvin Goodfriend’s testimony before the Senate today focused on the grilling he received from Senate Dems, there is one curious part of his testimony that has been largely overlooked: he flat out lied about his past support for taxing cash.

Unfortunately this issue that would directly impact every single American wasn’t brought up until well over an hour into this testimony. It was then that Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto asked Mr. Goodfriend about his past advocacy on “taxing currency” and whether he would support such a policy today. Read More

01.25.18- Real Estate to be Torpedoed in 2018?
Birch Gold Group

Real estate is the number one form of wealth for most people. However, as the last housing bubble and ensuing recession have shown, real estate is not always a safe investment. In 2006, housing prices peaked before falling to new lows in 2011 in the aftermath of the recession.

But since then, home prices have skyrocketed to new highs thanks to federally sponsored low-interest mortgages. In fact, home prices have risen so much, so fast that Americans have all but forgotten the Great Recession and foreclosure crisis of 2008/2009. Read More

01.24.18- No Sugar High from Tax Cut Unless the Fed and Banking System Provide the Sugar
Paul Kasriel

There has been chatter about whether the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) will result in a temporary stimulus, or sugar high, to U.S. economic activity because of the increase in corporate after-tax profits and the increase in household disposable income that will flow from the tax-rate cuts. How can putting this extra after-tax income in the hands of businesses and households not stimulate private sector spending? In order to answer this question, you have to follow the money. Read More

01.23.18- "The Dollar Will Be Destroyed By Its Own Government"
Kevin Massengill

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01.22.18- Is The Federal Reserve Really Thinking About Negative Interest Rates?!
Chris Marcus

At the same time the Federal Reserve claims it’s going to raise interest rates and normalize its balance sheet, it’s also publishing an essay advocating negative interest rates.

It’s almost so incredible that were it not published on the Fed’s own St. Louis branch website, it might be hard to believe it’s true. But apparently St. Louis Federal Reserve economist Yi Wen disagrees with the projected Fed mantra that it’s time to raise interest rates. Because he actually just wrote an essay explaining what negative interest rates are, and how it could be a perfect next move for the Fed. Read More

01.20.18- A Shocking Admission: “The Federal Reserve is a Criminal Conspiracy”
Charles Hugh Smith

A spokesperson assured the assembled media that the Fed Board was “deeply concerned” about the American people, inflation, and the unemployment rate, but he was heckled off the stage.

In an extraordinary admission, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve conceded that the Federal Reserve is “at heart a criminal conspiracy of bankers.” The Board followed up this revelation with a breezy confession that the Fed “doesn’t really give a rat’s rear-end about the American people, and we’re tired of having to claim we do.” Read More

01.19.18- The Next Financial Crisis Will Be Worse Than the Last One
Nomi Prins

We made it through 2017.

And if you look at the stock and asset markets, as Donald Trump tends to do (and as Barack Obama did, too), you’d think all is fine with the world.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24% last year. The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index rose 6.20%. The price of one bitcoin rose about 1,646%.

And so far 2018 has been more of the same.

On the flip side of that euphoria however, is the fact that the median wage rose just 2.4% last year and has remained effectively stagnant relative to inflation. And although the unemployment rate fell to a 17-year low of 4.1%, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.7%, its lowest level in nearly four decades.Read More

01.18.18- If Interest Rates Spike, Here's Who Will Be Hurt The Most
Tyler Durden

Interest rates are finally rising, and as we observed this morning, the 10Y - now above 2.60% and the highest since last March is now on the cusp of breaking above the 2.63% level which Jeff Gundlach said last week  is where stocks will be negatively impacted.

And while the financial sector is poised to benefit from this increase, although not if the curve flattens and eventually inverts, something which would unleash havoc among the banks, there are many parts of the US economy that will be unequivocally and negatively impacted from the rise in interest rates. Among them are housing, business investment and, of course, consumer spending: with credit card already at record highs, increase in the APR will crush America's purchasing power. Read More

01.17.18- Albert Edwards: The Trigger For The Next Market Correction
Tyler Durden

Fear of overvaluation – particularly for U.S. equities – has driven far too many investors to miss the strong bull market. For market bears to be proven right, according to Albert Edwards, it will take one or more of several triggers.

Edwards is the global strategist for Societe Generale and is based in London. He spoke at his firm’s annual investment conference in London on July 9. A copy of his slides, as well as those from his colleague Andrew Lapthorne’s presentation, can be found below. Read More

01.16.18- As the Controlled Inflation Scheme
Rolls On

MN Gordon

American consumers are not only feeling good.  They’re feeling great.  They’re borrowing money – and spending it – like tomorrow will never come.

On Monday the Federal Reserve released its latest report of consumer credit outstanding.  According to the Fed’s bean counters, U.S. consumers racked up $28 billion in November in new credit card debt and in new student, auto, and other non-mortgage loans.  This amounted to an 8.8 percent increase in consumer borrowing.  It also ran total outstanding consumer debt up to $3.83 trillion. Read More

01.15.18- Drowning In The Money River
Adam Taggart

Why the 99% of us are falling farther behind

It's a big club and you ain't in it. ~ George Carlin

If you suspect society is unfair, that there's a different set of rules the rich live by, you're right.

I've had ample chance to witness first-hand evidence of this in my time working on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley. Simply put: our highly financialized economy is gamed to enrich those who run it, at the expense of everybody else.

The Money River

A recent experience really drove this home for me. Read More

01.13.18- Social Change Will Upend the Status Quo
Charles Hugh Smith

The nation is fragmenting because the Status Quo is failing the majority of the citizenry.

The core narrative of the Status Quo is that nothing fundamental needs to be changed: all the problems can be solved with more "free money" (borrowed from the future at low rates of interest) and a few policy tweaks such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) (the topic of my new book Money and Work Unchained).

This core narrative is false: everything needs to change, from the bottom up. And that of course terrifies those gorging at the trough of status quo wealth and power. Read More

01.12.18- Party While You Can - Central Bank Ready To Pop The 'Everything' Bubble
Brandon Smith

Many people do not realize that America is not only entering a new year, but within the next month we will also be entering a new economic era. In early February, Janet Yellen is set to leave the Federal Reserve and be replaced by the new Fed chair nominee, Jerome Powell. Now, to be clear, the Fed chair along with the bank governors do not set central bank policy. Policy for most central banks around the world is dictated in Switzerland by the Bank for International Settlements. Fed chairmen like Janet Yellen are mere mascots implementing policy initiatives as ordered.  This is why we are now seeing supposedly separate central banking institutions around the world acting in unison, first with stimulus, then with fiscal tightening.  Read More

01.11.18- Traders Remind Central Banks to Take Care on Route to Exit Door
David Goodman

Global central banks are being served a sharp reminder by investors that their monetary policy planning carries the potential to roil financial markets in 2018.

minor tweak in the Bank of Japan’s bond-purchase operation Tuesday saw the yen strengthen more than 1 percent in two days. A change in the way China’s central bank manages the yuan sparked losses in that currency while recent hawkish comments from European Central Bank officials nudged the euro higher. Read More

01.10.18- The day I found out it was all rigged
Simon Black

May 6, 2010 started off as a pretty boring day.

The most exciting stories from the morning’s newspapers were reviews of the upcoming Iron Man 2 film.

But all that changed at around 2:45pm when, without warning, the stock market crashed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,000 points within minutes.

It was unprecedented… especially because there was absolutely no reason why stocks should have fallen so much. Read More

01.09.18- What Has QE Wrought?
Dr. Ron Paul

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01.08.18- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: UFOs, Tesla, DeLonge, ETS, Covert Ops
Jon Rappoport

“I HAVE HARNESSED THE COSMIC RAYS AND CAUSED THEM TO OPERATE A MOTIVE DEVICE.”- NIKOLA TESLA, BROOKLYN EAGLE (10 JULY 1931)

This is a “what if” story. But it’s also based on decades of experience analyzing propaganda and cover stories.

It’s based on the knowledge that military and intelligence operatives are trained to lie, and they like to lie, and they get up in the morning, licking their chops, because they know they’re going to lie during another day in paradise. Read More

01.06.18- It’s Not About Democracy: Control Fraud Is the Core of our Political System
Charles Hugh Smith

Charles Hugh Smith says “the many are finally calling out the abusers of power because there’s no longer any need to pay the corrupting costs…” 

he many are finally calling out the abusers of power because there’s no longer any need to pay the corrupting costs of centralization.

If we strip away the pretense of democracy, what is the core of our political System? Read More

01.05.18- Final Warning for America - The Fed Coin
Doug Casey

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01.04.17- Phillips Curve R.I.P.
Paul Craig Roberts

The Phillips Curve is the modern day version of the Unicorn. People believe in it, but no one can find it.  The Fed has been searching for it for a decade and the Bank of Japan for two decades.  So has Wall Street. 

Central banks’ excuse for their massive injections of liquidity in the 21st century is that they are striving to stimulate the 2% rate of inflation that they think is the requirement for sustained rises in wages and GDP.  In a total contradiction of the Phillips Curve, in Japan massive doses of central bank liquidity have resulted in the collapse of both consumer and financial asset prices.  In the US the result has been a large increase in stock averages propelled by unrealistic P/E ratios and financial speculation resulting in Tesla’s capitalization at times exceeding that of General Motors. Read More

01.03.18- Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can't "Normalize" Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus
Charles Hugh Smith

Central banks are now trapped.

In a nutshell, central banks are promising to "normalize" their monetary policy extremes in 2018. Nice, but there's a problem: you can't "normalize" markets that are now entirely dependent on extremes of monetary stimulus. Attempts to "normalize" will break the markets and the financial system.

Let's start with the core dynamic of the global economy and nosebleed-valuation markets: credit.

Modern finance has many complex moving parts, and this complexity masks its inner simplicity. Read More

01.02.18- Forecast 2018 — What Could Go Wrong?
James Howard Kunstler

If you take your cues from Consensus Trance Central — the cable news networks, The New York TimesWashPost, and HuffPo — Trump is all that ails this foundering empire. Well, Trump andRussia, since the Golden Golem of Greatness is in league with Vladimir Putin to loot the world, or something like that.

Since I believe that the financial system is at the heart of today’s meta-question (What Could Go Wrong?), it would be perhaps more to the point to ask: what has held this matrix of rackets together so long? After all, rackets are characterized by pervasive lying and fraud, meaning their operations don’t add up. Things that don’t comport with reality are generally prone to failure so sooner or later they have to implode. Read More

01.01.18- The Dreaded “Flattening Yield Curve” Meets QE Unwind
Wolf Richter

During prior incidents of an “inverted” yield curve, the Fed had no tools to get the market to push up long-term yields. Today it has one: the QE Unwind.

The price of three-month Treasury securities fell and the yield — which moves in the opposite direction — rose, ending the year at 1.39%, after having spiked to 1.47% on December 26, the highest since September 12, 2008. This is in the upper half of the Fed’s new target range for the federal funds rate (1.25% to 1.50%). Back in October 2015, the yield was still at 0%: Read More

12.30.17- Doug Casey On The Coming Financial Crisis: "It's A Gigantic Accident Waiting To Happen"
Justin Spittler

Justin’s note: Earlier this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen explained how she doesn’t think we’ll have another financial crisis “in our lifetimes.” It’s a crazy idea. After all, it feels like the U.S. is long overdue for a major crisis. Below, Doug Casey shares his take on this. It’s one of the most important discussions we’ve had all year.

Justin: Doug, I know you disagree with Yellen. But I’m wondering why she would even say this? Has she lost her mind? Read More

12.29.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Deep State Takedown In Progress: Is Trump About To Start Arresting Top Democrats And Bringing Them To Justice?
Michael Snyder

When Donald Trump gets hit, he always hits back even harder.  So when the deep state decided to conduct a legal witch hunt against President Trump and his family, they should have expected that Trump would return the favor.  In recent days, there have been all sorts of rumblings about sealed indictments, pending arrests and a “deep state takedown”.  Many believe that we are on the verge of seeing some of the most prominent Democrats in the entire nation being arrested and thrown in prison.  We shall see how all of this plays out, but in this article I am going to focus on the things that have been confirmed so far. Read More

12.28.17- The Dark Power Behind the Frauds and Financial Asset Bubbles - Whose Fool Are You?
LE CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

"While everyone enjoys an economic party the long-term costs of a bubble to the economy and society are potentially great. They include a reduction in the long-term saving rate, a seemingly random distribution of wealth, and the diversion of financial human capital into the acquisition of wealth. 

As in the United States in the late 1920s and Japan in the late 1980s, the case for a central bank ultimately to burst that bubble becomes overwhelming. I think it is far better that we do so while the bubble still resembles surface froth and before the bubble carries the economy to stratospheric heights. Whenever we do it, it is going to be painful, however.” 
Read More

12.27.17- Doug Kass' 15 Surprises For 2018: FANG Crackdown, Gold All-Time-Highs, Stocks Slump
Doug Kass

Contrary to the expectations of many (including myself), the uncertainty following the surprising Trump presidential election victory, which produced a number of possible outcomes (some of them adverse), was enthusiastically embraced by investors in 2017.

After a year of historically low volatility and ever-rising stock prices, the bullish consensus was "in" and the contrary was "out" in 2017.

But after the Trump election win in late 2016, a market on steroids was not a conclusion or forecast by any main stream Wall Street forecaster. Read More

12.26.17- Americans have no savings and with very good reason: housing, education, and health care have seen extraordinary inflation while wages are stagnant.
mybudget360

It has now become a daily ritual in which story after story of broke Americans plaster the web.  Yet somehow on the mainstream press, very little is discussed about this topic.  Americans are largely broke because inflation is vey real.  Housing, education, and health care costs have soared out of control while wages have remained stagnant.  The way Americans continue to pay for these items is by going into loan shark levels of debt.  There used to be a pretense that “we” actually cared about having a middle class but that is now thrown out the window.  At this point, we are in a full on sprint towards low wage capitalism.  Many people live on a paycheck to paycheck diet. Read More

12.25.17- Ready To Delete The Fed
And Congress Yet?

Karl Denninger

Once in a while you read something that has a nugget of truth in it -- on accident.

That is, the writer didn't intend to enlighten, and for 99% of the people in the country, it won't -- because America is, for the most part, an innumerate nation.

It is for this very reason that I have pounded my head against the wall on this web page for over 10 years.  If the people of this nation were not innumerate there would have been an utterly vicious reaction by now and not one single politician -- or Fed President -- would still be in office.  None.

They'd have either left peacefully or piecefully long ago. Read More

12.23.17- Weekend Rant: Benjamin Franklin’s
Warning Is Coming True

Simon Black

“Anyone who has the courage to be honest and objective can see the obvious decay…”

On September 17, 1787 on the final day of the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a woman as he walked out of Independence Hall.

“Well Doctor, what have we got– a republic, or a monarchy?” she asked.

It was a burning question on everyone’s mind: what form of government would the Constitutional delegates establish for the new country?

Franklin didn’t hesitate. “A republic– if you can keep it.” Read More

12.22.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: De Facto Travel Restrictions Now Exist For Americans
Paul Craig Roberts

Green Party presidential Candidate Jill Stein is being investigated by the Senate Intelligence (sic) Committee for “Russian connections.” What has brought Russiagate to Jill Stein? The answer is that she attended the 10th Anniversary RT dinner in Moscow as did the notorious “Russian collaborator” US General Michael Flynn. RT is a news organization, a far better one than exists in the West, but if you were one of the many accomplished people who attended the anniversary dinner, you are regarded by Republican Senator Richard Burr from North Carolina as a possible Kremlin agent. Read More

12.21.17- Yield Curve Steepens Dramatically:
What's Going On?

Mike Shedlock

US treasuries are seeing action we have not seen for a while: Strong sharp steepening of the yield curve.

The yield curve is said to steepen when the spreads between short-term and long-term rates increases. The yield curve flattens when spreads shrink.

A bearish steepener occurs when rates are rising and long-term yields are rising more than short-term rates. Spreads widen.

A bullish steepener occurs when rates are falling and short-term rates are falling faster than long-term rates. Spreads widen.

A bullish flattener occurs when rates are falling and long-term rates are falling faster than short-term rates. Spreads narrow. Read More

12.20.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: How to Recapture the True Spirit of Christmas in a Toxic Age
John W. Whitehead

“I think there must be something wrong with me, Linus. Christmas is coming, but I’m not happy. I don’t feel the way I’m supposed to feel.” -  Charlie Brown, A Charlie Brown Christmas

I keep waiting to encounter the “kind, forgiving, charitable, pleasant” Christmastime environment that Charles Dickens describes in A Christmas Carol: “when men and women seem by one consent to open their shut-up hearts freely, and to think of people below them as if they really were fellow-passengers to the grave, and not another race of creatures bound on other journeys.” Read More

12.19.17- Bad Juju! US Treasury 10Y Term Premia Crushed As Fed Unwinds Treasury Note/Bond Holdings
Anthony B. Sanders

Its going to be bad juju (or incoming weeks) for some Treasury investors as The Fed continues its “great unwind” of their $4.4 Trillion balance sheet.

As The Fed dumps their Treasury Note/Bond holdings, the 10 year Term Premium declines.

The Term Premium is the compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that short-term Treasury yields do not evolve as they expected. Read More

12.18.17- Central Banks Want the World to Carry On While They Quietly Tighten
Rich Miller and Alessandro Speciale

Central bankers are gingerly trying to take away the punch bowl without interrupting the party.

Led by interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China, central banks around the world shifted toward a tighter monetary stance this week. Yet the moves were either so well-telegraphed, or so tiny, and the language about future action so hedged, that there was barely a ripple in financial markets. Read More

12.16.17- Four Charts Prove The 'Economic Recovery' Is Just A Fed-Induced Entitlement Program For The Wealthy
Tyler Durden

"Economic recovery" in America no longer means what it used to mean.

Historically "economic recovery" was largely characterized by job and wage growth, distributed across the income spectrum, and a rebound in GDP growth to north of ~3%-5%.

These days, the notion of "economic recovery" has been hijacked by the Fed and bastardized in such a way that they celebrate "asset bubbles" rather than real growth in economic output. Read More

12.15.17- And So Begins The Rug-Yank Phase Of Fed Policy
MN Gordon

The political differences of today’s leading two parties are not over ultimate questions of principles.  Rather, they’re over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice.  For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing while pretending to make good on it.

Take the latest tax bill, for instance.  The GOP wants to tax less and spend more.  The Democrat party wants to tax more and spend even more.  We don’t recall seeing any proposals to tax less, spend less, and shrink the size of the state.  And why would we? Read More

12.14.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: Get The Rope, Pitchforks And Torches
Karl Denninger

This is the sort of article that ought to get you digging around in the garage for what the American people seem to forget they have: Pitchforks, torches and rope.

There is one simple and easily actionable approach that each of us could take to try to wrest control over health policy decisions away from the lobbyists who now control it with little effective counterbalance and put it back in the hands of our patients, who should be powerful shapers of such decision making.

This is a short excerpt from an article in JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) on a conversation they urge doctors to have with you.  The gist of it?  Obamacare and forced cost-shifting in general is something you should demand more of from politicians. Read More

12.13.17- The Fed is Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic (the Iceberg Comes in 2018).
Graham Summers

The Fed concludes its final FOMC meeting of the year today.

The entire financial world expects the Fed to raise rates a final time. This will mark the fifth rate hike since December 2015, and the fourth of the last 12 months.

Throughout this time period, the Fed has routinely stated that it is confused as to why inflation is “too low.”

Inflation is not too low. The method the Fed uses to measure inflation is intentionally incorrect. As a result, the official inflation numbers reflect whatever the Fed wants, as opposed to reality. Read More

12.12.17- The Fed's Fantasy on Neutral Interest Rates
Frank Shostak

In her testimony to the Congressional Economic Committee on November 29, 2017, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the neutral rate appears to be quite low by historical standards. From this, she concluded that the federal funds rate would not have to increase much to reach a neutral stance.

The neutral rate currently appears to be quite low by historical standards, implying that the federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to get to a neutral policy stance. If the neutral level rises somewhat over time, as most FOMC participants expect, additional gradual rate hikes would likely be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion.Read More

12.11.17- The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun
Graham Summers

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.

The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:

1)   Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk). Read More

12.09.17- Warning: Trump’s Federal Reserve Pick Hates Gold and Cash
Daily Bell

In case of emergency, you should always have a solid chunk of cash on hand. These days, that isn’t much riskier than keeping your money in a bank.

There are stories of banks and governments suspending accounts for no legitimate reason. Furthermore, the interest rates at banks hardly give you much incentive to store your money there.

But as with anything that gives individuals more control over their lives, the government doesn’t like it. They want the ultimate control to cut you off from your economic power. Read More

12.08.17- Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows
John Rubino

Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease).

To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.” 

Well it appears that someone at the Fed has finally decided to see what would happen if the CPI included those assets, and surprise! the result is inflation of 3%, or half again as high as the Fed’s target rate. Read More

12.07.17- Central Banks, Governments & Keynesian Economists Are Losing Their $hit Over Bitcoin
Jeff Berwick

If you were to tell me that central banks, governments, and Keynesian economists were in an uproar and hated something, I would put my finger to your lips and say, “Shhhh, you don’t even have to tell me what it is. Whatever it is, I love it.”

In this particular case, it happens to be bitcoin!

With bitcoin now on the cusp of breaking through $12,000 and a $200 billion market cap it seems all the puppets of the archaic, violent, tyrannical system of money and banking are losing their $hit! Read More

12.06.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: BLOCKBUSTER! - Deep Black Ops Contractor Exposes OKC!
Jeff Rense & Cody Snodgres

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12.05.17- The Economics of Bitcoin
Malavika Nair

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12.04.17- Three Blatant Lies The Fed Just Told You
Lee Adler

I told you I’d get you the rest of my Fed meeting notes soon, and (unlike the Fed) I always try to say what I mean.

Most of the little tidbits I gleaned from the latest meeting minutes (go here if you missed my expose earlier this week) are prevarications, obfuscations, or bald-faced lies. Here are a few.

Lie #1: Equities rise and fall because of investor behavior. 

Here’s what they said:

Broad equity price indexes rose notably, reportedly reflecting in part investors’ perceptions that tax reform was becoming more likely. Read More

12.02.17- Weekend Rant: Wall Street Criminals Continue Their Fraud And Theft: NO JAIL TIME
Mike Papantonio

Via America’s LawyerMike Papantonio talks with Danielle DiMartino Booth about how a new federal lawsuit says Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks rigged the U.S Treasury Bond Market to gain profits for themselves. Read More

12.01.17- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The Ant and the Grasshopper
Jared Dillian

I’m sure you’ve heard the fable of the ant and the grasshopper. The ant busted his ass all year growing some grain to store for the winter, while the grasshopper was laying about, playing the fiddle. When winter came around, the grasshopper had no food, so he went to the ant’s house to beg for some. The ant told him to beat it, and the grasshopper starved to death. The end.

This tweet was getting retweeted all over the place last weekend. Apologies for the bad language. Read More

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