Silver Bear Cafe

So, here are the two most bullish factors affecting silver.

1. The world has nearly run out of silver.

2. The nations of the world have printed up nearly unlimited amounts of unbacked paper money.

Put together, these two factors have never occurred before in the history of mankind.

True, the world was once using silver as money in many nations at once. But back then, in the late 1800's, the world had 5-10 billion ounces of silver to use as money. Today, we have much, much less, because most of the silver that has ever been mined in the world has been consumed by industry, and we may be down to about only one billion ounces or less.

True, there have been hyper-inflations as paper money has been printed to excess. But at those times, it was usually in one nation at a time, and there was still plenty of silver (and gold) to be used as money.

Today, no nation is using silver as money. And today, the world is almost out of silver. These factors create this once-in-history opportunity.

Silver today may be the best investment opportunity in the history of mankind. MORE>>

How Big is a Ton of Gold?

The "War on Terror' makes about as much sense as declaring a war on earthquakes, plagues, and hurricanes. I'm sure those would be popular and honorable wars. But to relinquish our rights and freedoms, our money and the lives of our young people because we fear disaster is a pitiful way to live. And to allow commercial rapists to sodomize the world economy under the banner of fighting terrorism is an attitude worthy of sheep.

The seeds of the 9/11 events were sown during the Reagan, Bush I and Clinton administrations. American support for Israel and the occupations of Arab land (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon) were the soil in which the current wave of terrorism sprouted. One can only imagine what seeds of terror are germinating now as a result of the Iraqi invasion.
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North America is heading toward an inevitable natural gas crisis that will not end until dozens of liquefied gas plants are built, according to a new study.

U.S.-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in the study released at the weekend that even the prospect of new finds in Western Canada will not be enough to head off the looming crunch. MORE>>

Wake up people. This is the Third World War and the battlefields are everywhere! It is not going away. The deal possibly coming out of Najafj with the martial cleric al-Sadr is step number one. If agreed to as now proposed, it is a transaction that will end up turning over Iraq to bin Laden by mistake.

The military history of Islam is loaded with intrigue, triple dealing and convoluted battle strategies that certainly appear to be beyond Western understanding. MORE >>

The paramount question before us then is how long before the Fed's money/debt train must begin to slow in speed so as to avoid a Weimar-type scenario? Impossible to say, but hopefully the reader can see the dilemma we are now in. The Fed must continue to expand credit and debt at an ever-increasing rate because just slowing the "speed of expansion" will bring on price deflation in the crucial asset sectors such as equities and real estate that have been expanded into bubbles. MORE >>

The question then for all rational men is which monster do we get consumed by, Scylla or Charybdis? Hyperinflation or collapsing deflation? Upon this question hangs our future. Our Strait of Messina has narrowed too much, and we no longer can escape unscathed. We must now succumb to one of these calamities. Does the Fed realize this? Perhaps, but certainly the American people do not. Do Bush and his advisors realize this? Of course not, they are part of the establishment herd. They believe that the Fed's monopoly money is actually wealth. They believe that dross can be turned into gold. They believe the great Keynesian hoax that came to visit its destruction upon the 20th century. MORE >>

It is preposterous to suggest that the Fed, as it exists today, has come about through evolution rather than revolution. In fact, the change has involved nothing less than the overthrowing of the U.S. Constitution making it incumbent upon the federal government to establish the U.S. Mint and to keep it open for the free and unlimited coinage of gold and silver by the people. In this way the Constitution has delegated the power of creating money directly to the people. It is this power that, as a result of the revolution, is now usurped by the Fed. As all usurpers, the Fed is a law unto itself that tolerates no restriction on its power. MORE>>

With the dawn of the 21st century the world has entered a new stage of geopolitical struggle. The first half of the 20th century can be understood as one long war between Britain (and shifting allies) and Germany (and shifting allies) for European supremacy. The second half of the century was dominated by a Cold War between the US, which emerged as the world's foremost industrial-military power following World War II, and the Soviet Union and its bloc of protectorates. The US wars in Afghanistan (in 2001-2002) and Iraq (which, counting economic sanctions and periodic bombings, has continued from 1990 to the present) have ushered in the latest stage, which promises to be the final geopolitical struggle of the industrial period - a struggle for the control of Eurasia and its energy resources. MORE>>

One morning, very soon, we will all wake up, and the whistle will have blown. The game will be over. A cascading of electronic bits and bytes will have melted into a digital heap. News anchors will be dumbfounded. Guests appearing on stock-pushing financial programs will be dumbstruck. The gorgeous financial babes will forget to don makeup and no one will notice. The entire world will be thrust into a state of mourning. The banks will not open. There will be civil unrest.

To be terse, the USA will be "Out of business." MORE>>

We have all heard the discussions of the internet and the very real possibility that one day it could be gone. Do you understand the implications of this and how this will affect you personally? Have you considered what would happen to your private and professional lives? My only answer to this quandary is, ïBe PreparedÍ. MORE>>

During the prehistoric ages (many many millions of years ago), the sun delivered energy to earth and the earth radiated an amount back to space as heat. The left over energy was stored in the plants. Over the eons, the dead vegetation and uneaten dinosaurs became oil, coal, and natural gas. (In essence, they became stored chemical energy, to be used later.) Populations of animals would grow during periods of global warming (do to the abundance of plant life) and decrease during cooler periods (less vegetation to support the ecosystem, try planting tomatoes in snow).MORE>>

The government taxes and regulates success and subsidizes failure. The GovernmentÍs motto, ñIf it ainÍt broke, fix it until it is.î Whenever you contact the Government, you are met by one of two groups who work for the government. The first group is just out of college hoping to work in government for three years, learn who to talk to in order to get things done, then get a real job and triple their pay. The second group is much older. They couldnÍt get a real job after 3 years. Government has either no experience or no talent. MORE>>

Gold and silver have gone up a lot already, and in my opinion, will go ever so much higher. As a matter of fact, this may be but the beginning of a run up in both metals, with the top unknown, as of this period. Why is it unknown? Because there is no limit as to how far "down" paper currencies, and especially the dollar, can go. Were their some type of limit of degradation which dollars can suffer, I would give you a "top" in gold and silver. They are on opposing teams, you see. Mighty gold and silver in one corner, and in the opposite corner, wilting, unbacked, laughable dollars. MORE>>

TAIPEI - Last September Morris Chang alarmed the semiconductor industry when he said there would be an industrywide recession in 2005 and that the Chinese chip makers would cause it. "I stand by that statement. China's capacity in 2005 will have a big impact," the chairman of the world's largest made-to-order integrated-circuit and computer-chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), has told Asia Times Online. MORE>>

The problem the WestÍs central banks face today is Asia. The Asians have discovered capitalism. They have discovered the wonders of fractional reserve banking. They have also discovered the boom-bust cycle: Japan in the 1990s, the rest of non-Communist Asia in 1997. ChinaÍs rude awakening will come soon enough. MORE>>

If it is not already obvious, I think that the winning strategy for this market is to buy your tickets now, take your seat and wait for the inevitable train ride of your life. MORE>

Page One Archives

As a Nation we are borrowing north of 27% against our Gross Domestic Product. Can Debt or more importantly, the Credit Bubble continue to expand and fuel ever more rampant speculation in Credit sensitive vehicles? Will foreign buyers step up and continue to recycle our fallacious promises with even more cannibalization of their internal markets/savings while leveraged speculation continues its prolific financial malfeasance?

Will the Federal Reserve begin a reckless campaign of purchasing insolvent debt with Federal Reserve Notes, monetizing the debt and maintaining the Goliath of Government?

Is Hyper-Inflation possible and just how probable at this late stage of the Blow-Off in Credit and Monetary Aggregates? MORE>>

One of the most difficult concepts for Americans to accept is that there are human beings dedicated to coercive population control and genocide. Many readers will acknowledge that our government is helping to finance the Red Chinese program of forced abortion, forced sterilization, infanticide, and control of the numbers of live births. Most readers will accept the fact that our nation is helping to finance the United Nations' world-wide "family planning program," a form of population control. Most rational men and women, however, find it impossible to believe that such programs are really part of a "master plan" to kill off large segments of the world's population. MORE>>

Gold is the first, and most frequently mentioned metal in the Bible, as at Genesis 2:11. From the beginning, it has been a noble metal, highly valued for its weight, rarity, durable non-tarnishing luster, shimmering beauty, ductility, and malleability. A number of Old Testament Hebrew terms refer to gold, such as zahav, charuts, kethem, paz, seghor, and ophir. In the New Testament, the Greek words khrysos and khrysion are used as reference to ornaments, coins, and gold in general. MORE>>

It's now my turn to write an article on the manipulation of the metals, specifically silver! This article will be unlike any you have ever read before. You, dear reader, will be the focus of this article. You are the ones that hold all the answers. This article won't deal with the manipulators and what they are doing. This article will deal with you and what you WILL DO after reading it! This is the opposite of what most of you were thinking. I'm tired of bitching and crying about what they have done to us. It is time we did it to them! MORE>>

Central banking is perhaps the most brilliant scam ever perpetrated, and the U.S. Federal Reserve stands as the most successful of all central banks in history. The Fed is able to transfer wealth away from the people who earned it, and into the hands of the Federal Government and member banks, relentlessly, stealthily, year after year, and all the while maintaining the preposterous claim of social benefit in the form of ñmanaging the economy.î The method of this theft is sophisticated and disguised enough as to escape the attention of most, and when combined with propaganda, leads most people to the conclusion that weÍd be in trouble without it. Yet I wish to show here that central banking can be well understood by most people for exactly what it is Æ the fraudulent theft of trillions of dollars via the monopolization of money. In the companion article, ñThe Origin of Money, and How It Was Stolen from You,î I will show that the usual justifications given for central banking are dubious. MORE>>

It's all about fear and greed. That's nothing new and we all know those are the forces that control the market place. What most don't know is that much of that fear and greed is controlled and manipulated. Greed can be profitable, especially if you have the power to move the markets, but front-running fear is the ultimate profit maker. If fear does not naturally and predictably occur, well then the bankers just manufacture it. MORE>>

"Money," has failed three times in America already. Paper "money," at any rate, and the dollar has already failed by about 98%, and is on its last legs. The first time, was during the Revolution, when George Washington had to fight a war, and there was no money with which to fight it. The obvious solution the infant Congress used, was to print money to fight the war. As usual, amid lofty promises of redemption, value, integrity, etc, it worked for a while. At least till we won. By the time Yorktown was surrendered, the "money," had become valueless. The same scenario occurred during the War Between the States, on both sides. MORE>>

Our true unemployment rate is close to 9%, rather than the fiction figures government hands out. Of the supposed 300,000 "new jobs created" last month, it is estimated that a third of them were from striking grocery store workers returning to work in California. Thousands were government jobs, which do not create prosperity, but rather hinder it, and not a single job was in manufacturing. Last week, I noted that Radio Flyer Wagons will, in the future, be made in China. I have a question. Suppose Radio Flyer decided to keep that factory open, and advertise that those wagons would have to go up in price a couple of bucks, but they would be MADE IN AMERICA. Suppose the Walton kids; Rob, Jim, John, and Alice, who still control the majority of stock in the outfit, decided to try to turn the trend around, and re-open factories they are responsible for closing? As Sam said in his book, "Every job that we save, creates another potential Wal Mart customer. So we all come out ahead." MORE>>

Very often when I talk to people about the likelihood of oil shortages or price hikes in the future, they come back to me with the statement ‘well I read that we have another 50 years of oil or 70 years or whatever it is’. And, what they are really saying is, it will be 50 years before we run out of oil. Actually, in fact I think it will be a lot longer than that. I would guess a century from now there will still be oil in the ground and probably some way of pumping a bit out now and then. But, the question of when we will actually run out of oil is absolutely the wrong question to be asking. We should be asking when will production peak? MORE>>

Argentina may be a difficulty for the Fund and for the financial world, but if you're looking for the really big crisis, look at the United States. A giant crisis is coming there, sooner than most people think. It is now clear, that what has been keeping the system going, is just pumping of liquidity.... The United States is the place to look, for where the really big crisis will hit." A series of U.S. economic disasters were announced in early March, like blows which sent the stock markets reeling, made pathetic the Bush Administration's "recovery" bravado, and deepened the fears of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his international counterparts about "systemic threats" of a collapse. MORE>>

China only has 7% of the world's arable land and fresh water, 3% of its forests and only 2% of its oil. And although China's land mass is roughly the same size as the United States, it has 4.5 times the population. In addition, China's enormous population is unevenly distributed, with 94% living in the south eastern part of the country. In the United States, this distribution would translate to nearly one billion people living east of the Mississippi River. MORE>>

The half-a-trillion dollar trade deficit? Doesn't matter.

The $1.5 billion-per-day federal deficit? Doesn't matter.

Consumer debt-to-income levels the highest in history? Doesn't matter.

Total debt levels at 350% of GDP? Doesn't matter.

Jobs outsourced to India... lost to China... ? Doesn't matter.

Dollar down 25% last year? Doesn't matter.

Gasoline rising 3 cents/gal. per week? Doesn't matter.

Does anything matter?

Well, nothing matters... until it matters. Or, as Bill Gross suggests, it never rains in California, either... until it pours. MORE>>

The major form of "insiding" is high-level fractional reserve banking. It always has been. At first the insiders win, but they eventually lose. In 1494, the mighty Medici bank went under. Why? Because it had made too many loans to princes. It was in the 15th and 16th centuries that the German banking family, the Fuggers, dominated Europe. They were the Rothschilds of their day. But they also made the mistake that large-scale bankers always seem to make: they loaned huge sums to kings. In 1525, it was the wealthiest firm in Europe. In 1557, France and Spain defaulted. They couldnÍt get the loans repaid. They went bankrupt in 1607.

Why do the bankers do it? Because governments grant them their fractional reserve monopoly, and then demand loans. Because the banks assemble (create) such large sums of lendable money that their loan officers canÍt decide what to do with all of it. Because governments guarantee easy profits. Because the huge loans to governments offer "economies of scale." ItÍs cheaper to get a single billion-dollar loan placed than a thousand million-dollar loans. But who can borrow a billion dollars? More to the point, who can offer comparable security for such a loan? MORE>>

The "Space Program" is not going to be driven by Private Enterprise. It is going to be driven by the Federal Government of the United States of America.

What George W. Bush ACTUALLY announced was tantamount to the first step in a journey that is going to give rise to a new Economic Order. The US Government will be "forcing" Trillions of dollars of "Investment" over the next two decades - and this investment will, in turn, give rise to employment and will power the economic engine.

But these trillions of dollars are going to need to be sourced somewhere. He can't just print the damned dollars, surely! We will be facing humungous inflation - which will give rise to an exploding gold price and oil price. MORE>>

As far as Saudis were concerned, the Twin Towers were far away. Many Saudis felt that, at least to a degree, the arrogant Americans deserved that disaster. Moreover, many Saudis remained in denial of their country's connection, often subscribing to the view, popular even among well-educated Arabs, that somehow the Israelis were responsible for the atrocity. And the surge of American hostility to Saudi Arabia, when it emerged that most of the hijackers were Saudi, fostered an ever sharper sense of Saudi prickliness. MORE>>

Cash is trash. If youÍre angling for cash, you are asking to crash. (Do I sound like Dr. Seuss?)

If you "invest" (medium to long term) in gold, youÍll get back trash.

If you "trade" (short term) in gold, youÍll get back what soon will be trash.

Only if you buy and hold physical gold will you get value in exchange for trash.

Which one is the better bargain? MORE>>

Are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of history in the war on terrorism? If we continue to follow the path we are now taking, I’m afraid that we are. But to find out whether we are repeating the mistakes of history, we need to go back in time. So, I invite you to join me in my time machine. We are going to splash around in history for a while and look at some great events and huge mistakes to see if there are parallels, any lessons to be learned for today. I must warn you that it will seem we are lost in time. We are going to go here and there, and then jump back further, and then forward in time, and we will be examining issues that may make you wonder "What on earth has this to do with today." But I can assure you, when we reach the end of our journey, you will see that everything we cover has a direct relevance to today and, in particular, to the war on terrorism. MORE>>

Ivan Petrovich Pavlov was a brilliant Russian Physiologist whose experiments on animals led to discoveries that would make the demented doctors in World War II, in both Germany and Japan, very jealous. Some of Pavlov's early work was done on sheep. Unfortunately for the sheep, they tended to first crap out and then die of heart attacks. Pavlov's work on sheep, analogous to retail stock investing, is critical for this article because retail stock investors do tend to act a lot like sheep.MORE>>

NARCO DOLLARS FOR DUMMIES

Back in the nineties, as crazy as they were, at least one thing held true about normal economic thought: the fact that good news for the economy was good news for the stock market. But look at things the way they stand now: supposedly "great" economic news (all those fictitious job gains) caused a huge stock-market sell-off. MORE>>

Texans have fought for water rights ever since the first cows were brought to Texas, and probably before. In the old days, neighbors argued and feuded over land and water rights, and courts had to settle the dispute. Today, better fences have made better neighbors, but the courts are still called upon to decide who owns what.MORE>>

What do you think a terrorist attack that prevented elections this fall in the US would do to the dollar? Please remember whatever happens to the dollar happens to gold in the inverse.

Such an event would suck out whatever gold remained in those central banks that were stupid enough to hold dollars instead of gold.
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The current monetary system is effectively a Ponzi scheme whose survival relies on the total supply of credit and money -- the so-called US$ short position -- continuing to expand (the way the system is designed there can never be enough money to pay-off existing debts). So, don't expect that the major stakeholders in the system (the US Government, the Fed, the commercial banks, the GSEs, the money-market funds, the Wall St financial houses) will decide to just hunker down and weather a brief period of deflation. That's really not an option for them. MORE>>

Wallace, Idaho - Silver rockets to $8 and gets barely a yawn from the mainstreamers. It slides back to $6 and they clamor to call it a cratering.

DID WE SAY $6? Well, we're not there yet and we may not get down that low but if we do, so what? Such would barely be a sneeze on a one-year Kitco chart, not even a hiccup on a five-year chart.

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The Provincially-set price of beer in 1970 where I grew up was fixed at 20 cents for a 12-ounce (Imperial ounces, mind you, not them wimpy American ounces) schooner. We returned to Vancouver, B.C. this January, and the best we could do was $2 for the same quantity of suds.MORE>>

Greetings to you, people of the year 2004! You are living in the year of my birth; I am one hundred years old now, writing to you from the year 2104. I am using the last remnants of the advanced physics that scientists developed during your era, in order to send this electronic message back in time to one of your computer networks. I hope that you receive it, and that it will give you reason to pause and reflect on your world and what actions to take with regard to it. MORE>>

Man is a rational animal, and he is much more. He is also an emotional animal and a spiritual animal. Fortunately or unfortunately, the emotionalism of the individual has a corollary in the emotionalism of the tribe. Nations have feelings, and feelings are more fundamental than ideology. MORE>>

Before we talk about money, economics, war, mkt tips, & politics, let’s take a hard look at whether any of that matters--if we are not going to be free enough to enjoy the fruits of our hard labour, or even use advice you read here, by year-end. Is it possible that Orwell’s 1984 forecast has gone from fiction to a fait accompli? That while the 1st world (“led” by a handful of US govt policy-makers) relaxed its vigilance & sought material wealth (gained by any means), it has been boiled alive in a pot of hot water? MORE>>

The following is a conversation with Mr. Ron Supinski of the Public Information Department of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. MORE>>

Central banks, reserve currencies, designed interdependence between nations, and military force projection, are some of the mechanisms and tools that defend the interests of the relatively few people in the world who benefit from the global wealth allocation scheme. MORE>>

It is no surprise, then, that savers and retirees on fixed incomes are in a world of pain. The Federal Reserve's clear policy is to make them pay for the economic recovery. In the 4th quarter of 2003, personal interest income alone was falling at a $30 Billion annual rate! Savers and retirees are being punished so that Fannie Mae can make record profits. Moreover, principals at major Wall Street firms and hedge funds using leveraged finance as their business model, can once again trade up on their mansions in the Hamptons this summer. MORE>>

We want to believe those on whom we are dependent. If we are being betrayed, then we are at risk. If we are being betrayed on life-and-death matters, then we are at extreme risk. So, in life-and-death matters, we dearly want to believe. We become soft touches, marks, and suckers for those who prey on trusting souls. MORE>>

In the long run, gold has been very effective for preserving purchasing power, and has won out over all efforts by governments to manipulate and suppress it. It is one of the oldest, most tried and proven forms of money. It often serves as a long-term inflation barometer. However, in the short run, in addition to suffering as a victim of anti-gold campaigns sponsored by governments and central banks, gold may also be a laggard in keeping up with inflation and commodities. It may even do better in certain deflationary environments. MORE>>

A recently declassified CIA document casts new light on some of the most significant geopolitical events of the past quarter century. This document, an Intelligence Memorandum titled "The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis (ER 77-10147)," was issued in March 1977 by the Office of Economic Research and classified "Secret" until its public release in January 2001 in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. Until now the document has prompted little discussion. MORE>>

Comrade Ching, you are no doubt aware that we have accumulated many dollars by flooding the United States with cheap goods. You must treat the following with complete confidentiality, but our satellites have detected many truckloads of trees going into the Federal Reserve buildings at the dead of night, and we suspect that these ministries of monetary policy are actually a façade for a massive and secret printing operation. We are afraid that the true value of our Yuan in these American dollars may be much higher than the official exchange rate suggests, and that if the dollar collapses and our peasants and workers find out that they are dollar millionaires, they will all want to go to Disneyland and discipline will break down. What do you recommend? MORE>>

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