A term has been coined for product sellers who shrink their packages, and thus, the amount of product in those packages, keeping the package price the same: shrinkflation. Anyone with a bit of good sense or economics training knows this is another form of price inflation, caused by what used to be the dictionary meaning of inflation; an increase in the supply of money. Read More
07.30.21- Housing Prices Slide
Interestingly, you’re about to find out that the fall in housing prices and home sales may power us further into high inflation for longer. We are entering a situation that could turn into a true oxymoron where lower prices equal higher prices as early as this week at the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. I’ll tell you how that works.
Housing prices are finally falling Read More
The Federal Reserve insists inflation is “transitory” and the economy is making “progress.” Yet, it continues with the extraordinary monetary policy it launched at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, we’re seeing all kinds of data hinting that the economy may not be as great as advertised. Despite this, and even as prices continue to spiral higher, the Fed’s only monetary policy is talk. Peter breaks it all down on his podcast and drills down to the key question: what happens if the markets call the Fed’s bluff? Read More
07.28.21- How to Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game
07.27.21- 2021’s Most Common Financial Scams
Among the many contenders for the most frequent scams in 2021, Business Insider has selected the five most frequent offenders. Last year, there were more than 800,000 scams with some form of online presence, resulting in losses of more than $4.2 billion. Scammers haven’t taken it any easier this year, and the diversity of the scams shows that caution and common sense should be part of everyone’s daily routine. Read More
Every Word of the Official Covid Narrative Is a Lie. There is a vast amount of hard empirical evidence disproving the orchestrated narrative, but the presstitute scum censors it instead of reporting it.
Covid deaths are associated with co-morbidities, impaired immune systems, and deficiency of Vitamin D and Zinc. There have been known safe cures for the virus since the beginning, and the cures were blocked from use in order to have a market for the vaccines. Read More
If you were awake at all this week, you caught glimpses of the stock market drama. Maybe you tuned it out? Here’s a quick recap:
Monday: Huge sell-off, the worst one-day decline since October 2020.
Tuesday: Big rebound recaptured 80% of Monday’s losses.
Wednesday: Rally continues, Monday’s losses fully recouped.
Thursday: Stocks rise a bit, ended the day up.
Friday: All major indices up, near their record highs. Read More
07.23.21- Time to Buy Your Umbrella
Heavy weather barreled through Wall Street Monday — beneath the weatherman’s detection — and gave investors a savage drenching.
Squalling rains washed away 925 points from the Dow Jones Industrial Average… before relenting late in the day.
High pressure, high skies and high expectations were back yesterday. The Dow Jones reclaimed 536 points. It took back another 286 points today. Read More
07.22.21- Do You Have This Smartphone App?
The stock market bounced back today after yesterday’s major losses. “Buy the dip” is alive and well.
But today, I want to revisit a topic I haven’t addressed much lately due to the pandemic, the inflation debate, and many other topics that have taken center stage.
I’m talking about the war on cash. Read More
Tuesday was an “Interesting” day in markets. Monday’s full-on wobble in global equities reversed into a buying binge as investors sensed the opportunity to buying a cheap market, at pretty much the same price it was the day before when they sold because it was an expensive market. What had changed? Precisely nothing.
You could dig into the details and guess on Monday people got scared of the ongoing consequences of Covid. On Tuesday the market voted again and decided the pandemic isn’t an issue… Basically it’s a market bouncing off the walls, looking for something to trade around. Read More
Short-term interest rates are now as negative as they were in the inflationary 1970s.
But that’s where the similarity ends. As the above chart shows, 1970s indebtedness was relatively modest as a percentage of GDP, which gave that financial system the resiliency to withstand the double-digit interest rates necessary to throttle inflation and bring things back into balance. Today, debt in both nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP is off the charts, which means even modestly higher interest rates would bankrupt the world. Read More
07.19.21- What Triggered the Crash?
And so on to the moment of mass disillusion and the crash. This last, it will now be sufficiently evident, never comes gently. It is always accompanied by a desperate and largely unsuccessful effort to get out. The least important questions are the ones most emphasized. What triggered the crash?
This is not very important, for it is in the nature of a speculative boom that almost anything can collapse it. Any serious shock to confidence can cause sales by those speculators who have always hoped to get out before the final collapse, but after all possible gains from rising prices have been reaped. Their pessimism will infect those simpler souls who had thought the market might go up forever but who now will change their minds and sell. Read More
07.17.21- Soaring Debts
After decades of unhinged money-pumping, the Fed has driven real interest rates so low that there are no more bond investors - just traders and suckers.
The former have driven the 10-year yield in recent days to just 150 basis points in nominal terms (and deeply into the red in real terms in the face of surging monthly inflation numbers), because they are “pricing-in” one thing and one thing only: simple and supreme confidence that the spineless fanatics who occupy the Eccles Building will keep buying $120 billion per month of government and quasi-government debt. Read More
Bad news … Retirement savers with some (or all) of their assets tied up in a private pension could be facing a nightmare scenario sooner than expected.
07.15.21- The Approaching Storm
So, it looks like GloboCap isn’t going to be happy until they have fomented the widespread social unrest — or de facto global civil war — that they need as a pretext to lock in the new pathologized totalitarianism and remake whatever remains of society into a global pseudo-medicalized police state, or that appears to where we’re headed currently. We appear to be heading there at breakneck speed. I don’t have a crystal ball or anything, but I’m expecting things to get rather ugly this Autumn, and probably even uglier in the foreseeable future. Read More
When the 2020 presidential election was stolen from President Trump, the Republican Establishment was happy to be rid of him. Trump’s intent to bring the offshored corporate jobs back home to Americans where they belong was regarded as a threat to corporate profits. Wall Street and corporate executives were strongly opposed and used their influence against Trump. Read More
07.12.21- Why I Don’t Operate On My Gut Instincts
When I was younger and desperate to “figure out the stock market,” I’d ask everyone all the questions I could. I thought that was the best way to learn.
But I ended up frustrated at the conflicting information I would get. And nothing irked me more than hearing that profiting from the market required a lot of “feel.”
That’s probably because I had no “feel.” Or worse yet, my feelings were constantly wrong. Read More
“Brace for a significant market correction,” said Mark Zandi earlier this week. He hinted that a 10 to 20% correction was already underway.
Which isn’t surprising, as manic investing behavior coupled with last year’s pandemic mitigation attempts eventually must give way to fundamental market forces.
07.09.21- The Problems With Central Planning
07.08.21- China: Fragile Giant
We asked and answered the above trick question in a blog post on 22nd March. It’s a trick question because although rising interest rates put downward pressure on some stock market sectors during some periods, they are never the primary cause of major, broad-based stock market declines. After all, the secular equity bull market that began in the early-to-mid 1940s and ended in the mid-to-late 1960s unfolded in parallel with a rising interest-rate trend, and the preceding secular equity bear market unfolded in parallel with a declining interest-rate trend. Read More
Nothing Goes to Heck in a Straight line, not even the dollar’s hegemony.
Yes, the Fed is a drunken reckless money-printer, and the US government has been high for years on deficit spending, but other major central banks and governments do the same or worse. The long-term trends are clear, however. Read More
1: The stock market is deliriously overvalued by history’s standards…
2: Investors fully acknowledge 1…
3: Investors continue to pile into the stock market despite 1.
Conclude the gentlemen and ladies of Bespoke Investments:
Russia warned the U.K. that it would bomb any British warships it finds in the Black Sea. The June 24 threat from the Kremlin followed a British Royal Navy vessel passing by the waters of Crimea – which Russia annexed in 2014. On the other hand, Downing Street has insisted that the disputed territory’s waters belong to Ukraine and the warship made no provocative actions.
On June 24, British Ambassador to Russia Deborah Bronnert was summoned for a formal diplomatic reprimand over Britain’s purportedly “dangerous” action in the Black Sea. Read More
07.02.21- The Fed Can’t Tighten
Gold’s recent selloff looked familiar in that it resembled the types of gold selloffs that occurred when the Fed talked about tightening its loose policy for years in the mid-2010s.
It sure talked a good game. But, when it came time to really test how much tightening the debt-saturated economy could handle, by late 2018, the Powell Fed folded like a cheap suit. Read More
“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—for ever.”— George Orwell, 1984
Tread cautiously: the fiction of George Orwell (Jun. 25, 1903-Jan. 21, 1950) has become an operation manual for the omnipresent, modern-day surveillance state. Read More
It’s been hard, lately, to untangle the many causes of inflation’s sudden surge. How much is due to the pandemic lockdown distorting year-over-year comparisons? How much to crippled supply chains forcing manufacturers to pay up for needed components? And how much to good old-fashioned excessive money printing?
Whatever the cause, headline inflation numbers have been brutal, with the CPI rising at rates that would normally call for a fast, hard tightening. See Key inflation indicator posts biggest year-over-year gain in nearly three decades. Read More
Inflation is here, and with it the possibility of an agricultural commodities supercycle. We’ve all seen inflation at the gas pump and the grocery stores, and heaven help you if you need to build something right now. Just recently ZeroHedge published an article about ag leaders predicting a mini supercycle in commodities.
Let’s unpack this a little bit. Read More
06.28.21- The Only Metric That Matters
Interest rates remain chained at zero. Any slight increase remains one year distant — at minimum — and likely two years distant.
Meantime, the Federal Reserve continues to purchase assets at the rate of $120 billion the month.
It is only now beginning to “talk about talking about” kinking the liquidity lines.
That is, the Federal Reserve remains what professional men term… accommodative. Read More
06.26.21- Do You Hear The Bells Ringing?
There’s an old Wall Street adage, you’ve likely heard it, “No one rings a bell at the top (or bottom) of the market.”
The bell, of course, is the signal to sell at the market top. Here we pause to take exception with this adage.
As far as we can tell, bells do ring at market tops. Yet few hear them. Most people’s ears are plugged with the prospects of easy riches. Read More
06.25.21- Welcome To The “Pre-Taper” Tantrum
In 2018, the Fed tried to moderate its post-Great Recession emergency policy of low interest rates and torrential money printing. It reduced (or tapered) its asset purchases and, in a series of tiny steps, boosted short-term interest rates by about one percentage point. Read More
06.24.21- It Always Ends The Same Way: Crisis, Crash, Collapse
Risk has not been extinguished, it is expanding geometrically beneath the false stability of a monstrously manipulated market.
Appearing Tuesday on CNBC’s Squawk Box, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass estimated that the United States’ inflation rate is approximately 12 percent.
A transcript is as follows:
06.22.21- The Decentralization Fetish
There is a common view among bitcoin advocates, which also prevails to some extent among economists working in the Austrian tradition, that decentralization is always good and more-decentralized solutions are always better. In both forms, this view starts with a reasonable premise. Bitcoin revolutionized payments by enabling digital transactions to take place between strangers without a trusted third party serving as a centralized clearinghouse. Ludwig von Misesargued that economic calculation was impossible under central planning, while Friedrich Hayek explained that markets relied on decentralized knowledge of a particular time and place. Read More
Out of Control
American workers are trying to make their way in an economy that’s rigged against them. We made this claim many years ago. Today, for fun and for free, we revisit this assertion…starting with the latest from those doing the rigging. Read More
06.19.21- Too Much Liquidity
Yesterday, the FOMC released its June statement which only served to remind us that its members are powerless in the face of inflationary conditions. They refuse to accept the price consequences of monetary inflation, still clinging on to an increasingly untenable hope that price rises are “transitory”.
The fact of the matter is that the world is now awash with excess money, the two greatest inflationists being the Fed and the Bank of England. In the US, the Fed’s $120bn monthly QE continues to goose financial asset values, while the US Government has spent a further trillion into circulation from its general account at the Fed. This tidal wave of money threatened money market funds totalling over $4 trillion with negative rates, thereby “breaking the buck”, which is why the Fed has increased its outstanding reverse repos to $721bn. Read More
06.18.21- No Return to “Normal”
Our subject today has a little of everything – ambition… betrayal… idealism… cynicism… democracy… revolution… corruption… you name it!
But today’s setting is not the USA. Still, we will turn to the U.S. media for a big surprise, before taking up our parable.
Here’s a rare event… where the reporter got the story almost right. The Hill: Read More
06.17.21- Are we at the Inception of an Inflationary Depression?
It is an acknowledged fact within the circle of Austrian Economists that the Central Banks have to continuously rely on and actively indulge in a propaganda of Voodoo Economics to hide the extreme imbalances that they have created in the world economy.
What lies in the decade ahead for much of the Western economies and indeed most parts of the world is a prolonged period of high inflation combined with an economic depression. Read More
A report published last year by the WEF-Carnegie Cyber Policy Initiative calls for the merging of Wall Street banks, their regulators and intelligence agencies as necessary to confront an allegedly imminent cyber attack that will collapse the existing financial system.
In November 2020, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace co-produced a report that warned that the global financial system was increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks. Advisors to the group that produced the report included representatives from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund, Wall Street giants likes JP Morgan Chase and Silicon Valley behemoths like Amazon. Read More
Earlier this year, none other than Michael 'Big Short' Burry confirmed BofA's greatest fears, as he picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously from Parsson's seminal work, warning that:
"The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket." Read More
As the world economy awakens from the 15-month slumber caused by the pandemic, Deutsche Bank has launched a series of research articles to spark debate and discussion about pressing post-pandemic economic issues.
06.12.21- How Fanatics Took Over the World
Early in the pandemic, I had been furiously writing articles about lockdowns. My phone rang with a call from a man named Dr. Rajeev Venkayya. He is the head of a vaccine company but introduced himself as former head of pandemic policy for the Gates Foundation.
Now I was listening.
I did not know it then, but I’ve since learned from Michael Lewis’s (mostly terrible) book The Premonition that Venkayya was the founding father of lockdowns. While working for George W. Bush’s White House in 2005, he headed a bioterrorism study group. From his perch of influence – serving an apocalyptic president — he was the driving force for a dramatic change in U.S. policy during pandemics. Read More
...and it’s a lot worse than it appears.
The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May, after having jumped 0.8% in April, and 0.6% in March – all three the steepest month-to-month jumps since 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. For the three months combined, CPI has jumped by 2.0%, or by an “annualized” pace of 8.1%. This current three-month pace of inflation as measured by CPI has nothing to do with the now infamous “Base Effect,” which I discussed in early April in preparation for these crazy times; the Base Effect applies only to year-over-year comparisons. Read More
On Monday, Deutsche Bank released a report that further confirms a portent of doom for the U.S. economy and Democrats led by President Joe Biden. While many economists and policymakers claim that the recent uptick in inflation is temporary, Deutsche Bank warned that Biden’s profligate spending, the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates, and global economic trends threaten to unleash persistent inflation, which amounts to an insidious tax on the poor and middle class that benefits the government. Read More
One Bank Goes Apocalyptic: Inflation Is About To Explode "Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb"
As excerpted from “Inflation: The defining macro story of this decade” a must-read report written by Deutsche Bank’s global head of research, David Folkerts-Landau, co-authored by Peter Hooper and Jim Reid.
Ronald Reagan (1978): “Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.”
Joe Biden (2021): “A job is about a lot more than a paycheck. It’s about dignity. It’s about respect. It’s about being able to look your kid in the eye and say everything will be okay. Too many people today can’t do that – and it’s got to change.” Read More
People used to call those who could see the writing on the wall “crazy conspiracy theorists.” Now, major mainstream media outlets are reporting that the United States dollar could crash by the end of 2021.
Honestly, I am surprised the dollar hasn’t crashed already. It’s almost worthless in the sense that prices are skyrocketing and hyperinflation is right around the corner.
Energies of legalism, monetarism and fatalism Complete control of humanity
The seething energies of legalism, monetarism and fatalism raise the question, why is it better to be ruled by the head and not the heart?
Due to the tradition of Abrahamic laws, it has been much too easy for our Western rulers to impose the unemotional political ideology of legalism. It also explains why most of our politicians are lawyers. Legalism has led to a statute book with thousands of laws and created a monstrous bureaucratic labyrinth of government agencies. Read More
06.05.21- Weekend Rant: What If
Maybe now that Dr. Tony Fauci has begun to spill the beans on his doings in service to the Wuhan virology lab, the phrase “conspiracy theory,” flogged by the media as jauntily and incessantly as by the soviet kommissars of yore, will have worn out its welcome.
In a sane polity, Dr. Fauci would be cooked. He looks circumstantially like an epic villain of history, who promoted and funded dangerous research activities knowingly, which led to an international disaster that killed millions of people and destroyed countless livelihoods and households, perhaps even the whole global economy. Read More
I could start this blog with “Don’t listen to morons, ever.”
That would basically be the same as starting this blog with “They’re dumbing down the kids and no one’s noticing because they’re so busy being social justice warriors.”
Especially the kids in question.
Generation Z is said to be the strongest generation America has ever seen. (If you don’t mentally see the meme of the old white guys laughing, you’d better watch today’s video). Read More
06.03.21- Why Do Inflation Expectations Matter?
There is, understandably, a lot of talk about inflation lately. Much of this talk is rooted in a naïve interpretation of the quantity theory. An increase in the quantity of money is thought to surely lead to a proportionate increase in the price level. Yet, the monetary base has increased from around $850 billion to over $5.8 trillion in just over the span of a decade. Despite this nearly 600% increase in the quantity of money, the price level has increased by just 26%. The Fed’s balance sheet stands at $8 trillion today. Where is the inflation hiding? Read More
That the era of stability has ended and a new era of increasingly chaotic volatility has begun is not on anyone's radar as a possibility.
05.29.21- "Own The Internet" -
“The most bullish thing for Ether is to be understood.” - Ryan Sean Adams, Bankless
What if I told you about a business with strong network effects and 200x YoY revenue growth that was preparing to offer a 25% dividend and implement a permanent share buyback program? Is that something you might be interested in?
That’s pretty much Ethereum. It’s one of the most fascinating and compelling assets in the world, but its story is obfuscated by complexity and the specter of crypto. Read More
So many of the deepest problems facing our world today go underreported or flat-out omitted from the 24-7 news cycle, which steals the narrative to keep people focused on politics, consumerism and other ego-driven pursuits.
The stories we tell ourselves drive our development and our evolution, but the mainstream stories are pushing our society over the brink and taking us ever closer to the realization of global disaster. Something has to change, but where do we begin? What can individuals do to really make a significance impact for the better? Read More
With the likes Goldman jumping on the crypto train (favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin), yet another one of the world's most legendary investors has became bullish on the space (adding to Loeb, Dalio and Druckenmiller, while Munger and his Omaha homie never will).
On Thursday, Carl Icahn told Bloomberg Markets' Taylor Riggs that while he doesn't own any digital currencies, his firm might get involved in a "relatively big way," adding "Crypto is here to stay in one form or another." Read More
Gamestop is creating a team for a non-fungible token (NFT) platform based on Ethereum. On Tuesday, Redditors found a new portal on the company's website called "nft.gamestop.com." Not much is known about the portal, but the title of it reads "Change The Game."
Scrolling through the portal, one discovers a console that resembles a GameBoy from the 1990s that has three powerful statements:
05.25.21- Calling Out the Willfully Ignorant
05.24.21- Conserving Financial Sanity
Last week was a gratifying week for a number of reasons but it was also a frustrating one for many of we Ontario-ians that worship the summers out on Georgian Bay. Canadian boating season usually runs from the last week of April to the first or second week of October so twenty or so weeks out of fifty-two is pretty skimpy especially when I talk to my friends that have dockage in the Caribbean or southern U.S. We learned late last week that we would finally be allowed to use the marina for this upcoming May Two-Four long weekend (derived from the Seventies term “two-four” describing a case of beer containing twenty-four bottles purchased from the “Brewers’ Retail” and a “must-have” when rocketing up the 400 highway to someone’s cottage in a ’68 GTO with Thrush mufflers and chrome scoop on the hood). Read More
05.21.21- The 'Threat Board' Is Looking Busy
Markets are digesting what’s been a fascinating week in terms of swings, tensions and threats. Everything from Supply Chains, Taper and Inflation is on the radar as speculative assets swing widely. Maybe it’s time to sit back, step away and take time to consider the macro issues of recovery, and the micro issues about how the pandemic has altered behaviours. The UK’s bounce bank loans could highlight how the world has changed as massive defaults are expected. Read More
05.20.21- Everything is on Fire
“Everything is on fire” – Heraclitus (535-475 BC)
What Heraclitus meant was that the world is in a constant state of flux. But the big problem in the next few years is that the world will experience a fire of a magnitude never seen before in history. Read More
05.19.21- Beware the Rise of Scamerica
Scams, frauds, flim flams, and grifts are nothing new to America. In fact, confidence games were old hat when Clifton Wooldridge published his 1906 classic, The Grafters of America: Who They Are and How They Work, which describes common cons in fin de siecleChicago. The recent death of notorious investment scamster Bernie Madoff should remind Americans that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Read More
Of all the shortages that we are currently facing, the global computer chip shortage may be the most serious. That is because the chip shortage is expected to last “a few years”, and just about every sector of the world economy will be dramatically affected by this. When people think of products that contain computer chips, they tend to think of electronic devices such as televisions, phones and laptops. But computer chips are in thousands of other products as well. Read More
05.17.21- A Tsunami Warning Has Been Issued
A tsunami often takes its victims unawares… a liquid mountain rising sheer from a glass sea… suddenly… barreling ashore.
The coastal areas are promptly scenes of astonishing apocalypse.
In 2021… the skies have been azure, the breezes have been kind, the seas have dozed. Read More
05.15.21- Who's Minding the Mint
Every now and then I receive a story that (1) comes from a source I do not know, (2) that is full of sensational details that make me question the whole narrative, and (3) which details nonetheless “connect” to other stories I do credit. That’s the case today with this story shared by A.F., and the story it connects to are those bearer bond stories, and my hypothesis of a hidden system of finance, based upon obfuscated bullion amounts, the physical transfer of bearer bonds, and just a whole lot of rehypothecation and other types of fraud and malfeasance, including “official counterfeiting”. Additionally, I believe in some fashion it is related to the “missing trillions” that Catherine Austin Fitts, Dr. Mark Scidmore, and others have talked about. Read More
There have been few politicians in modern times who have done more to undermine personal liberty, capitalist prosperity, small government and especially world peace than the Cheney Clan. So upon Liz Cheney’s ouster from the #3 job in the US House GOP hierarchy, we say: Good riddance!
And, no, we don’t begrudge her vote to impeach the Donald. The man is such an insufferable bully-boy and megalomaniac that upon his richly deserved exile from Washington her “yes” vote amounted to little more than a slightly offensive Bronx cheer. Read More
Dip-buyers have charged in after Monday's flash-crash in cryptos, sending Ethereum to a new record high near $4400...
That has pushed Ethereum's market cap above $500 billion, now larger than JPMorgan...
05.12.21- The Biggest Jobs “Miss” Ever
Our bottomless disfaith in experts is validated yet again…
These wiseacres informed us April would turn in over one million fresh jobs. How many fresh jobs did April turn in?
266,000 — wrong by a factor approaching four — the miss of all misses.
“This is a big miss that changes how we think about the recovery,” moans University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers. Read More
S&P futures started the weak flat with Nasdaq futures falling offset by surging commodity stocks as a new record in copper and iron ore prices stoked concern about whether inflation will derail a growth rebound in the world’s largest economy and spoil a record stock rally. Metal producers were among the biggest gainers in premarket trading, with Freeport-McMoRan, Cleveland-Cliffs and United States Steel all up at least 3%. At 715 am ET, Dow e-minis were up 109 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 3.25 points, or 0.08%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 35.5 points, or 0.26%. Read More
Money laundering: The illegal process of making large amounts of money generated by a criminal activity, such as drug trafficking or terrorist funding, appear to have come from a legitimate source…let’s say…divorce.
When you’re the wealthiest guy in the world ($188.5 billion) but you can be linked to terrorist funding (Antifa/BLM), what do you do to protect your assets? Read More
The power to tax has long conferred the power to destroy political opponents. But in the glorious era of President Joe Biden, all previous cases of government abuse of power are being expunged, at least by the media and Biden supporters. That is why it is supposedly safe to vastly increase the power of perhaps the most feared federal agency, the Internal Revenue Service. Read More
Inflation and shortages are the two big stories for the U.S. economy this week. In recent days I have done multiple articles about inflation, and so today I want to focus on the widespread shortages that we are currently witnessing. At this moment, the U.S. economy is experiencing more shortages than it did at any point during 2020. I know that statement sounds quite outlandish, but it is true. During the early stages of the pandemic, there were temporary shortages of toilet paper, hand sanitizer and other items, but now there are severe shortages throughout many sectors of the economy, and quite a few of those shortages will not be so temporary. Read More
If you’re tired of binge-watching Netflix, there are likely a few restaurants in your neighborhood who would love to hire you. A job might help relieve the boredom.
On the other hand, why work when one can just be one of the more than 6 million former workers now collecting “pandemic unemployment insurance”? Read More
05.05.21- Counting the Chickens Twice
I’m not a fan of mass media. To me, it’s become more infotainment than information… And it’s easy to see why.
News organizations make money by selling ads. If no one sees them, they don’t get paid. And human beings are far more entertained by bad news stories than good ones. Hence there’s no shortage of dour subjects in the news – especially financial news… Read More
05.03.21- Is the US Economy a Virtual Reality?
An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but is having a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”
His main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven. Read More
04.30.21- The economic consequences of bank credit contraction
As well as financing escalating government deficits, central banks face an additional problem of replacing contracting bank credit to the non-financial private sector if a slump is to be avoided. The problem comes at the worst possible time in the bank credit cycle, with commercial banks’ balance sheets as highly leveraged as they have ever been. Read More
04.29.21- The Stock Market’s Collapse is Near
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
Because stock market performance is an important factor in U.S. Treasury behavior, I study it closely. I wrote a paper in 2012 that, among other things, examined the consistency (or actually inconsistency) of long-term S&P 500 performance. Between our founder Robert Kessler’s indelible memory of slogging his way through the futile stock market of the 1960s and 1970s and my study of the long-term history of the S&P 500, you will see that the powerful up-trend of the last 12 years is not a comprehensive representation of the stock market. Read More
04.28.21- Exposed: The Myth of “Efficient Markets”
What took Wall Street so long to figure out something I’ve been saying for months?
Six months ago, even before the presidential election in November, I began warning my readers that Joe Biden was going to double the capital gains tax.
It wasn’t a difficult prediction. Biden said so himself in his campaign website as one of a long list of policy proposals. Read More
04.27.21- Waiting for the Last Dance
The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000. Read More
04.26.21- Signs, Signs Everywhere...
“Fools, as it has long been said, are indeed separated, soon or eventually, from their money. So, alas, are those who, responding to a general mood of optimism, are captured by a sense of their own financial acumen. Thus it has been for centuries; thus in the long future it will also be.”
John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria
The signs of an epic bubble of historic proportions are everywhere. Read More
Could we possibly see official inflation top 10% over the coming months? Robert Wenzel seems to think so. (The official rate of inflation has already jumped from 1.7% to 2.6% just recently).
As we approach the hundredth day of the Biden “presidency,” any logical, patriotic American has to wonder what more would someone do if they were trying to systematically destroy every ideal and virtue our nation has stood for in its history. From porous borders to suppressed citizen freedoms, unbridled spending yet throttled economic growth, inciting divisiveness while promoting untethered morality, our enemies must imagine themselves in an Old Milwaukee commercial, “It doesn’t get any better than this.” Read More
“DE&I” (shorthand for “diversity, equity, and inclusion,”) is a handy acronym that has become commonplace in corporate America. As recently as last May some of the hucksters peddling it were lamenting that the COVID-19 pandemic had “stalled” corporate DE&I initiatives; their fortunes reversed when the death of George Floyd and the ensuing riots drove DE&I to the top of American corporations’ list of priorities. Read More
In the year 215 AD, the young Roman Emperor Caracalla, then just 27 years of age, decided to ‘fix’ Rome’s perennial inflation problem by minting a brand new coin.
Caracalla’s predecessors over the previous several decades had ordered an astonishing debasement of Roman currency; the silver content in Rome’s ‘denarius’ coin, for example, was reduced from roughly 85% in the early 150s AD, to less than 50% by the early 200s. Read More
For anyone who needs an update on how World War I began, just read the headlines of today and change the names slightly. No one country actually started that war. The rulers of all of them did stupid things, one after another and all of a sudden the world was in flames. The same silly shit is happening today.
For those who wonder just how the American Empire is going to end, in a whimper or with a bang, we are about to find out. My bet is it’s going to be with a giant bang. But the empire is going to end post haste. How do I know? Let me count the ways. We have passed peak stupidity across the entire spectrum. Read More
04.19.21- Here’s When the Bull Market Ends
The good news: this bull market will run for months and months.
The bad news: stock gains will be lean. The lion has already taken his bites.
This is the studied conclusion of crack financial journalist Mark Hulbert. He has ransacked market history and interrogated the data.
Stock market rhythms stretching to 1900 inform him that: Read More
Would you pay more than 100 million dollars for a single deli in rural New Jersey that had less than $36,000 in sales during the last two years combined? I know that sounds like a completely ridiculous question, but the stock market apparently thinks that deli is worth that much. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 34,000 for the first time in history, and investors all over the country cheered. But this financial bubble is not real. It is a giant mirage that is built on a foundation of fraud. Investors have lost all touch with reality, and in this sort of euphoric environment a small deli in rural New Jersey can literally be valued at more than 100 million dollars. Read More
04.16.21- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: COVID Propaganda Roundup:
04.15.21- Archegos & Credit Suisse -
Bill Hwang, the founder of the hedge fund Archegos that just lost $30 billion, probably didn’t realise when he named his company that it was predestined for big things.
Archegos is a Greek word which means leader or one who leads so that others may follow. Read More
04.14.21- Final Nail in the Coffin
The stock market was down today, but it’s still trading at record highs. The mainstream financial media will tell you it’s because the market is anticipating a robust recovery as the economy continues to reopen and vaccination numbers grow.
But don’t buy into the happy talk that all is well with the U.S. economy.
The unemployment rate has indeed dropped. But initial unemployment claims are on the rise again. That’s a trend that will show up as weaker job creation in the months ahead. Read More
“Beer is proof God loves us.”
The outlook for the UK looks rosier as pubs reopen, vaccinations beat targets, and the economy grows. But, how should investors be looking at markets when financial assets already look overpriced, and there are clear bubble risks ahead? It’s a matter of staying calm, reading the runes and understanding the markets new mindset! Read More
“We are now speeding down the road of wasteful spending and debt, and unless we can escape we will be smashed in inflation.”—Herbert Hoover
We’re not living the American dream. We’re living a financial nightmare.
The U.S. government—and that includes the current administration—is spending money it doesn’t have on programs it can’t afford, and “we the taxpayers” are the ones who will be forced to foot the bill for the government’s fiscal insanity. Read More
“We are now speeding down the road of wasteful spending and debt, and unless we can escape we will be smashed in inflation.”—Herbert Hoover
We’re not living the American dream. We’re living a financial nightmare.
The U.S. government—and that includes the current administration—is spending money it doesn’t have on programs it can’t afford, and “we the taxpayers” are the ones who will be forced to foot the bill for the government’s fiscal insanity. Read More
04.10.21- We’re In Uncharted Territory
Financial crisis expert Bethany McLean warns of today’s precarious level of risk
Investigative journalist Bethany McLean is an expert on crisis.
She has written New York Times best-selling books on the collapse of Enron (The Smartest Guys In The Room) as well as the mortgage industry and Wall Street abuses that led to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Read More
Welcome to the Twilight Zone.
Where a former Pfizer VP admits that it is “entirely possible this [the vaccine] will be used for massive-scale depopulation”.
And where parents wrap themselves and their children up in plastic in a form of legalized Munchausen by Proxy, and it’s not considered child abuse, but rather SAVING LIVES! Read More
Archegos was not a household name until about two weeks ago when it made headlines all over the world.
Archegos Capital Management is a family office controlled by Bill Hwang, a former hedge fund trader. Family offices can be conservative in their investment approach, but they can also be as highly leveraged and as risky as any hedge fund, or even more so. It’s up to the person managing the family office. Read More
If there is anything Wall Street banks crave is relief. Primarily relief from the potential for failure and, next, relief from holding much, if any, equity capital. These banks like their capital tiny and their profits huge. Losses should be socialized. After all, we want the ATMs to keep spitting out cash. Read More
The outcome leaves you baffled and confused…
No matter the language or culture, magicians have performed sleight of hand tricks to wow audiences around the globe for centuries.
The magician’s goal is to reveal a chosen reality to the audience, while concealing the real methods and actions that bring the magic trick to life.
Two important factors play into sleight of hand… Read More
Is the market going insane? Is an enormous “everything bubble” — inflated with cash flowing into overvalued investments — headed for a historic explosion? Is the market in a “mania” phase right now?
With every passing day, it’s getting more challenging to answer “no” to any of these questions. Read More
04.01.21- Joe Biden and the new era of big government
They’ll print money until they run out of trees.”
For many, the above headline accompanying a recent Financial Times “Big Read” will be welcome news. For others, it will serve as a warning. FT says the Biden administration’s economic program “echoes” Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. “The passage of the [stimulus] bill in a deeply divided Congress…,” explains FT, “has a much broader significance. Read More
03.21.31- How to Be an Anti-Authoritarian
Freedom is declining in America and around the world. Even more alarming is how few people oppose new authoritarian measures.
Glenn Greenwald has sounded the alarm about ongoing attempts to curtail the First Amendment. Recently Greenwald described his experience as he listened to the “tyrannical goal” expressed at a Congressional hearing: “Words cannot convey how chilling and authoritarian this all is: watching government officials, hour after hour, demand censorship of political speech and threaten punishment for failures to obey.” Read More
03.30.21- 20 Reasons Why America’s Next Bank Holiday Will Be a Nightmare
Interest rates have been kept artificially low since 2007. What we are witnessing now (in early 2021) is an understandable rebound. Some analysts suggest that it might herald a repeat of the 1945-to-1981 interest rate wave. That wave was triggered by currencies and banking detaching themselves from precious metals. (First silver, and then gold.) The 1971 to 1981 period, in particular, was quite traumatic. A similar, but a probably much smaller wave of interest rate hikes will be triggered by global financial markets detaching themselves from the U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency, adopting sovereign digital currencies. Read More
03.29.21- Brace, Brace, Brace
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
You could not make this up; an unimaginably complex WW3 Techno-thriller unfolding as markets stumble and global supply chains hover on the edge of anarchy. On the other hand, maybe that’s just the way it was planned.
I am not one for conspiracy theories. But… this morning… If I was a writer of trashy global-techno-World War 3 pulp fiction, and proposed the following scenario where the global economy lurches into an unprecedented period of instability – nobody would believe me: Read More
03.27.21- The Mainstream’s Got It Wrong
Gold has taken a hit this year, no doubt about it. Since peaking over $1,950 in early January, the price of gold has fallen to $1,725 today.
But not all is doom and gloom. Some perspective is needed. If we go back to the beginning of the current bull market on December 16, 2015 (when gold bottomed at $1,050 per ounce), gold is up over 60% even at today’s beaten-down price. Read More
The world got another wake-up call this week about the overreliance on complex, just-(not)-in-time global supply chains. As of Friday, the massive containership, "Ever Given,"remains stuck in the canal, unable to be refloated, paralyzing the world's most important shipping lane. Ever Given is one of the world's largest containerships, with approximately 20,000 shipping containers of goods, and it has paralyzed one of the world's most importantly shipping lanes - a vital linkage between Asian factories and customers in Europe and the US. Read More
03.25.21- What Trump Derangement Syndrome Has Wrought
At less than 100 days in, Trump-haters have imposed growing disasters on the country. Trump-hating voters cared about one thing and it wasn’t the success of Operation Warp Speed, a strong economy, or peace in the Mideast. Bad Orange Man must go, the country, our kids’ and grandkids’ futures be damned. And we reap what we sow. Read More
03.24.21- And Now, for Someting Entirely Different: Sen. Kennedy... We don't need more gun control, we need more idiot control
03.23.21- And Now, for Something Entirely Different: The End of America?
I warned that would-be tyrants, whether they are on the left or the right, always use a map to close down democracies, and that they always take the same ten steps. Whether it’s “Invoke a Terrifying Internal and External Threat,” “Create a Thug Caste,” “Target the Press,” or the final step, “Suspend the Rule of Law,” these steps are always recognizable; and they always work to crush democracies and establish tyrannies. At that time, the “global threat” of terrorism was the specter that powers invoked in order to attack our freedoms. Read More
I don’t know what’s more ludicrous at this point, the amount of central bank intervention or the whining from the markets that there isn’t enough.
We’re headed for the mother of all financial crises and from my chair I can’t for the life of me understand how so many smart market analysts can’t see the way it’s being engineered right in front of their eyes. Read More
Is the market going insane? Is an enormous “everything bubble” – inflated with cash flowing into overvalued investments – headed for a historic explosion? Is the market in a “mania” phase right now?
With every passing day, it’s getting more challenging to answer “no” to any of these questions. Read More
Manitowoc, WI — Over the last decade, TFTP has been reporting on the encroachment of the police state into the public education system. As we previously reported, schools across the country are increasingly hiring police officers to do the job that teachers and guidance counselors once did. This is resulting in the criminalization of childhood as well as increased police violence against children. This tendency of of school systems to rely on the police state has increased in the last 12 months thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the following scenario in Wisconsin shows exactly how bad it’s getting. Read More
Fact #1: Reams of stocks have been trading at 52-week highs.
Fact #2: Reams of stocks have been trading at 52-week lows.
Not since 1984 — the year not the book — has the stock market manifested such violent schizophrenia. Read More
03.17.21- It Is Time To Remove The Debt Barrier To Economic Growth
Out of habit, American economists worry about federal debt. But federal debt can be redeemed by the Federal Reserve printing the money with which to retire the bonds. The debt problem rests with individuals, companies, and state and local governments. They have no printing press. We have explained that the indebtedness of the population means there is little discretionary income with which to drive the economy. The offshoring of middle class jobs lowered incomes, and after paying debt service—mortgage interest, car payments, credit card interest, student loan debt—Americans’ pockets are empty. Read More
How can a a small rise in bond yields scare policymakers so much?
Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2% yield in the US 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20%, and with it the entire stock market globally. A 2% yield can cause such disruption? How did we get to such a situation? Read More
They are assuring us that we don’t have to be concerned about “inflation” because they have everything under control. Do you believe them? The value of the U.S. dollar has been steadily declining for a long time, and most Americans have grown accustomed to having the cost of living rise at a faster pace than their paychecks do. But over the past 12 months an enormous paradigm shift has begun. Instead of devaluing our currency a little bit at a time, now our leaders are going “full Weimar”. Read More
03.13.21- Rigged To Fail: From Lies To Populism, From Musk To Powell
For quite some time we have been warning about the oncoming shark fin of rising yields and rates.
As of this writing, one can almost hear John Williams’ orchestral theme song to Jaws ringing in the ears.
The Slow Creep
Mortgage rates in the U.S. have hit 3%, dramatically curtailing mortgage re-fi’s. Read More
Treasuries are under meaningful pressure as the 1.624% yield peak in 10s comes into range. There was no definitive trigger other than the usual suspects of reopening optimism, supply indigestion, and SLR expiration jitters. To this latter concern, the most recent primary dealer holdings data as of March 3rd revealed a record $64.7Bn decline in Treasury holdings to $185.8 bn. It’s worth noting that -$23.5 bn of this was in the bill sector and -$3.7 bn in floating rate notes; that said, notes and bonds were also reduced. However, given the preceding spike in yields and the fact these figures are reported in market value rather than par terms, the drop reflects more than simply dealers aggressively shedding Treasuries as the extension of SLR became less certain. Read More
Those looking up from their “free fish!” frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves.
It’s an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd doing the “so easy to catch, why not grab as much as we can?” scooping is frontrunning inflation, the universally expected result of the Great Reflation Trade. Read More
YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Over the weekend, the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 boondoggle. And the U.S. 10-year Treasury note – the bedrock of the entire American capital structure – now trades at more than three times the yield it had last August.
There are two overlapping narratives to explain the rise in bond yields. The one favored by Wall Street and Washington is that the economy is entering a fantastic growth phase… with businesses borrowing heavily to keep up with expanding demand (thus pushing up yields). Read More
03.09.21- Betting The Farm On Moonshots
Ashley Revell of London had a mad itch he needed to scratch.
The year was 2004. The initial tickle came from a casual drinking conversation with a friend. Revell couldn’t let it go.
The idea, in short, required Revell to liquidate all his possessions, travel to Las Vegas, and ‘bet it all’ on one spin of the roulette wheel. The idea was sheer lunacy. Yet Revell was just crazy enough to go through with it. Read More
Enjoy this brief period of relative stability while you can, because it won’t last. I have been sitting here searching for the right words for this article, and I hope that I can accurately convey the urgency of this hour to all of you. Following the election of Joe Biden, there appears to be a bubble of hope in the United States. Short-term economic conditions have stabilized a bit, the COVID pandemic seems to be subsiding, and many are hoping that life will “return to normal” this summer. Read More
03.06.21- When Yields Rise, Narratives Fall
The big story of the past couple of weeks is rising bond yields. Everyone’s talking about it. Everyone’s got a theory about it. Even me.
Why are yields rising?
What does rising yields mean?
03.05.21- Stock Market as Forward Looking
“Remember that the market is a forward-looking indicator. Ideally, it is pricing in the gains of the next six to 18 months.” (Seeking Alpha)
Famous last words again and again. That sunny advice about today’s overpriced market was repeated again about a week ago. It is the same excuse that was routinely deployed at the beginning of this rally back in April and May and especially in June and July as the market recovered most of its losses in spite of all the gloom. “These prices are justified,” they said, “because the all-wise market looks forward six months or more, and by the start of 2020, the economy will have almost completely recovered.”Read More
After a brief break in high fuel prices, those prices are now rising with a vengeance. Fuel prices are up more than 25 cents a gallon nationwide in the last month alone and are now at an average of $2.68 a gallon for regular. It’s only going to get worse.
Fuel prices are spiking…or will soon.
Fuel prices are expected to spike in the coming weeks and even more this summer. Read More
The gambling goes on. The stakes get higher.
You’ll recall that “inflation” refers to additions to the money supply. When you have a gold-backed system, you can’t really inflate the money supply, because you can’t easily get your hands on more gold.
Typically, the amount of gold above ground increases at about the same rate as the goods and services it is meant to represent. That’s why prices today – in gold terms – are not so different from those 1,000 years ago (with a generous and elastic allowance for technological improvements). Read More
The expected “sugar rush” from more stimulus is why the economy will “run hot” then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much “sugar” leads to a “rush” of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.
The Coming Economic “Rush” Read More
03.01.21- Dr. Copper Signals Bull Market is On
There’s no better barometer of economic health than Copper.
This is where it gets the nickname, Doctor Copper.
Just over a year ago our models and data were flashing major warning signs in the market, with Copper the main focus.
We took those warnings seriously and cautioned readers. Read More
02.27.21- Beanie Baby Flashbacks
Everything going on in the world right now is just one big trade – an implicit bet that current cashflows will not matter to investors and the risk-free rate has vanished to zero forever. So long as there is no yield on cash or treasury bills and bonds, everyone will be willing to invest on spec – there’s a consensus, almost religious, belief that a new buyer is destined to come along later at an even higher price for just about anything you can purchase.All of these investments have different categories or names or classifications but they’re all one bet. A greater fool bet. So far, that bet’s been paying off. I’ve benefited too, so no animosity intended. Read More
Oh my… Capitalism has failed.
You hear it shouted from the rooftops. It is on every pair of lips… and in every journal, newspaper, website, opinion piece, hard fact, and scurrilous innuendo in the media.
Even the Chinese are getting in on the act. Here’s the U.S. Sun:
Unconstitutional gun control measures pushed by all three branches of federal government are ruled null and void in Newton County
The Commission of Newton County, Missouri passed legislation in February that will empower local law enforcement officials to arrest federal agents who attempt to violate the Second Amendment rights of citizens within the county. Read More
02.12.21- Public Servants or Parasites?
I have a question. When did politicians and federal employees start calling themselves “public servants”? Even more importantly, why are we letting them? It’s almost as if they’re trying to claim the mantle of nobility for making a sacrifice in the public interest. But I don’t understand what that sacrifice is. They’re paid better and have better benefits than most private-sector employees. They’re rarely held accountable for their performance. Why do we treat them as if they’re serving a higher calling than any other profession in the country? Read More
“Threats to freedom of speech, writing, and action, though often trivial in isolation, are cumulative in their effect and, unless checked, lead to a general disrespect for the rights of the citizen.”
~ George Orwell
In early December I asked Jim Grant how to reconcile exuberant financial markets with economic reality that reads like dystopian fiction. He responded, Read More
The year was 1977.
Disco was in. Star Wars was the biggest movie of the year. The world’s first personal computer was announced– the Commodore PET, which came with 8 kilobytesof memory.
And the Gross Domestic Product of the United States reached $1.9 trillion– more than double what it had been just ten years prior. Read More
02.09.21- Cancelling the Land of the Free
Things are moving at a warp speed in post-Trump America. The Giant Orange Man served at least one important purpose, and that was to impede the progress of the rabid virtue signalers who have taken over every part of our society. Now he’s gone, banished to Mar-a-Lago land, and the bullies who wanted to take our lunch money no longer have to fear our imperfect but large older brother. Read More
The Washington establishment, led by a senile 78-year-old man who can barely speak in complete sentences and seems permanently fighting mad, is hell- bent on labeling virtually all Americans who voted for President Trump –Republicans, Independents, and Democrats — as “insurrectionists.” They have invoked the Insurrection Act of 1807 to justify placing thousands of heavily-armed National Guard (and other) troops in Washington, D.C., who appear to be stationed there indefinitely. Read More
You don’t have to be a cog in the system. For most of us, the only option that was presented while we were growing up was to get on the hamster wheel and run as fast as we could. You know what I mean – go to school, get a job, pay a mortgage, prepare for retirement, etc. But it doesn’t have to be that way. If you truly want to unplug from the system and live your life off the grid, you can. Of course it isn’t easy, but nothing in life really worth doing ever is. Read More
Let us not, in the pride of our superior knowledge, turn with contempt from the follies of our predecessors. The study of the errors into which great minds have fallen in the pursuit of truth can never be uninstructive.
– 19th-century Scottish author Charles MacKay
WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – As you know, Dear Reader, we live in an Age of Miracles. Read More
Over the years, I have written extensively about the concept of economic “decentralization” and localization, but I think these ideas are difficult for some people to visualize without proper motivation. By that I mean, it’s not enough that the current centralized model is destructive and corrupt; it has to start breaking down or show its true totalitarian colors before anyone will do anything to protect themselves. Read More
Things I trust more than the government: a Facebook ad promising me a free weekend in Lithuania.
The year was 2016 and I was a starving artist, writing and living in a travel trailer on my sister’s property in rural Florida. Read More
Have you ever heard of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation? What about Cede and Company? If those names are foreign to you, then you don’t really understand how the core of our financial system really works. A lot of people are blaming Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev and the heads of other major trading platforms for the stock trading restrictions that we witnessed last week, but it was actually the DTCC that suddenly jacked up deposit requirements ten-fold. Robinhood and other trading platforms were put in a vise-like grip, and they had no choice but to act. Read More
It didn’t have to be this way, but this is the reality we must now face: truth is fatal to fraud, and our entire financial-political system is a fraud.
The stock market has just been punctured by the thin blades of truth. It is fatally wounded but nobody dares notice. The wounds are barely visible, but the internal damage is mortal. The stock market is already stumbling and will soon crash. Read More
You’ve read about housing market bubbles, stock bubbles, and even credit bubbles. But the next bubble you’re about to discover could be even more dangerous, and may have even more far-reaching consequences.
It’s called a food price bubble, and it’s been inflating under our noses since March 2020. You can also see the dangerous trajectory it’s on compared to three previous years in the FAO chart. Read More
Questions for My Betters
China is now vigorously testing a digital yuan and threatens to have it ready for prime time for the 2022 Winter Olympics. This seems, to me anyway, important. It will be a real, workaday yuan, not a speculative cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. It will use a digital wallet via a cellphone app, and will not require an internet connection. Beyond this, I know about it only what I read, which may be wrong. To avoid endless qualification, I will write the following as if it were fact, but really I mean it more as an extended question. Any correction, amplification, or thought will be welcome. Read More
Retail investors have banded together to turn over the tables on Wall Street, and it has created a wild frenzy that is making headlines all over the globe. Unprecedented short squeezes have pushed the share prices of GameStop, AMC, Macy’s and BlackBerry to insane heights, and prominent voices in the financial world are complaining that trading in those stocks has become completely divorced from the fundamentals. In fact, these young retail investors are actually being accused of turning the market into “a video game”. Read More
I consider the author Neal Stephenson a visionary. For example in his 1999 novel Cryptonomicon, he essentially describes a Bitcoin type cryptocurrency, almost a decade before it existed.
In a past video, I described his idea in The Diamond Age of “distributed governments” which provide insurance-like services to customers, regardless of the geographic area they live in. Customers were free to choose their own government, or go without one. Read More
We have spent a lot of time going back and forth about what our enemies in the Democrat Party are attempting to do. Make no bones about it gang, they are in no way any sort of loyal opposition. They are the enemy of all things American. They continue not only to support the downright evil policy of murdering and dismembering unborn babies in the womb, disproportionately those of minorities (genocide anyone?) but they also support the admission of mentally/emotionally disturbed males into female locker rooms to sexually prey on under age children. Read More
Despite decrying censorship when it was happening to them last year, when Donald Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook earlier this month, the left praisedthe move by big tech. “Facebook is a private company and can do what they want,” the pro-censorship hypocritical crowd chanted ad nauseum through the digital ether after bad orange man was silenced. But as we have said time and again, Facebook being private is simply not true. Read More
Over the past few months I have written a handful of articles which discussed what would probably happen if Joe Biden actually entered the White House and launched his administration. My initial belief was that Trump would refuse to concede and that this would be a trigger for national chaos blamed on conservatives, but I have also noted that Biden’s entry is almost just as disruptive, as it sends a signal to the political left that it is “open season” on anyone that disagrees with their ideology. Read More
Whether you celebrate St. Bridget’s Day, Candlemas, Imbolc, or Groundhog Day, February 2 is coming up. For those of us active in gardening and raising animals in the Northern hemisphere, this means it’s time to think about spring. And that means garden planning!
The taxpayer is backstopping more credit risk than ever…
What clear-eyed mortgage underwriter would sign on to a thirty-year loan at less than 3 percent? After all, in Las Vegas, for instance, the unemployment rate in November was 11.5 percent, second highest in the country. The city’s main engine, tourism, has been stymied by covid. But, as if there were nothing wrong, nothing to see, or no risks to consider, new home sales are on the verge of being the highest in 2020 since the historic housing-boom year of 2007. Read More
01.20.21- How soon will the Left eat their own?
Hey. I’m always here to offer advice to the Left, to make their road smoother, to point them in the direction of fellow travelers they should cancel for deficiencies of “wokeness.”
Let’s start with the issue of GMOs, poisonous Roundup, and Monsanto (now swallowed up by Bayer). Read More
01.19.21- Will Biden and Obama be executed for TREASON?
While Italy did the dirty deed, Obama and Biden were the top-level operational criminal co-conspirators who cooked up and funded the election theft. Of course, they were directed by their Jesuit handlers in the Vatican, who were in turn commanded by their their well-hidden masters in the Italian Black Nobility. Which is precisely why this election theft essentially took place in Italy. But it was the Khazarian Mafia, as always, that issued the order.
The verdict is in. Read More
01.18.21- Here It Comes
These were spending estimates for Mr. Biden’s proposed “vaccination and economic rescue legislative package.”
Our spies have spent days sleuthing for the correct figure. But they too heard conflicting whispers. They expressed the most confidence in CNN’s crystal gazing.
They were correct… evidently. Read More
01.16.21- Signs and Wonders
In case you don’t know what condition our condition is in, the name for it is a crisis of legitimacy. Four years of seditious harassment by a “Resistance” within-and-without the US Government culminates in the janky election of a mentally incapable grifter… run by whom? Does anyone seek to know who, exactly, is pulling Joe Biden’s strings? My guess would be…duh… Barack Obama and his posse. When will he be outed? Maybe today… or next week at the latest. Heads will explode to see liberalism’s bowling trophy fall off the national mantelpiece. If you think Nancy Pelosi is running around in a hebephrenic fugue state now, just wait. Read More
01.15.21- The Destructive Force
This article concludes that quantitative easing as a means of stimulating economies and financing government deficits will fail. The underlying assumption is that the transmission of additional money to non-banks in order to inflate financial assets, and to banks to cover government finances, will become too great in 2021 for it to succeed without undermining fiat currencies and financial markets. Admittedly, this opinion stands in stark contrast to the common Keynesian view, that once covid is over economies will start to grow again. Read More
The U.S. economy lost 140,000 jobs in December. Only about 55% of the jobs lost in March and April have returned. That’s a significant number.
Americans and others around the world who make their living as bus drivers, bartenders, waiters, hair stylists and boutique store clerks, among thousands of other jobs, make up 50% of all jobs and 45% of U.S. gross domestic product. Read More
01.13.21- Storming Into America 3.0
I thought America 2.0- the authoritarian mess which evolved out of the 9/11 false flag- was bad. It made those of us old enough to have lived most of our lives in America 1.0 long for the days of a better looking, more competent corruption. 2020, with a deadly virus that had the beneficial effects of eliminating both the threat of terrorism and the common flu, and an unconstitutional lockdown accompanying it, was only the beginning. Read More
01.12.21- How To Lose Weight
Health is the best investment you can make in 2021
If you’re like most of the people around the world who had their lives rocked by the COVID pandemic, staying healthy in 2021 is likely one of your resolutions for the coming year.
And if so, ‘losing weight’ is probably on your list. Read More
01.11.21- The Capitol:
It’s our own fault. We allowed Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram to control the narrative while Google controlled the answers to any questions.
They now believe they can define what happened on January 6, 2021 with impunity and we will accept their lies as truth. Read More
01.09.21- Finding Light in the Face
This world we live in has changed so much over the centuries, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. Change brings many things, including progress that can be lifesaving for so many, but progress in the wrong hands of power can also bring misery and death. The twentieth century brought wonder in many ways, and so many advances, but it was a time of mass murder and world wars. It was a time of socialism and communism, and of a huge number of evil murderous rulers including those like Mao Zedong, Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot, and all the American presidents, their enforcers, and their willing allies that murdered or caused the deaths of tens of millions of innocent people in the false name of “exceptionalism” and “democracy.” Read More
I’m writing this hours before posting it, so events may unfold that add more information.
The first thing you need to ask yourself: was the break-in at the Capitol, while Congress was in session holding a debate about election certification, an attempt to stop a transfer of power to Biden, or an attempt to stop the debate itself—during which legislators would have laid out evidence of fraud? Read More
01.06.21- America’s Epiphany Moment
The blanketing canopy pressing down across the globe of TINA (there is no alternative) is rupturing. The fabric is tearing at the seams. Now, with the U.S. courts having abdicated their role in adjudicating suits in connection with the 3rd November election, it seems that President Trump will make a last effort to change the course of events between 6–20 January (inauguration day). At point of writing, some 140 Republican Representatives say they will challenge the outcome of certain elections on 6 January. Whether this challenge will succeed (in all its dimensions) is moot. Read More
01.05.21- The Frogs Will Boil Themselves
There’s a well-known old fable that describes a frog being boiled alive. It states that if a frog is dropped in boiling water, it will hop out. But if it’s placed in lukewarm water, it will be comfortable. Then, if the heat is turned up slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be boiled to death.
In political terms, this translates into a slow increase, say, the slow rise of taxation or the gradual removal of freedoms. Read More
01.04.21- This is a Recipe for Hot Inflation in 2021
Get ready for a tsunami of liquidity to hit the financial system…
Get ready for a tsunami of liquidity to hit the financial system.
President Trump has already signed a COVID-19 stimulus bill that will give $600 to most Americans. The House of Representatives has since passed a bill to increase the amount to $2,000.
That’s a massive wave of money flowing into the economy.Read More
As I write, the presidential election is still not resolved, with dramatic events potentially unfolding in the first days of the New Year. I’m not convinced that Mr. Trump is in as weak a position as the news media has made him out to be in these post-election months of political fog and noise. The January 6 meet-up of the Senate and House to confirm the electoral college votes may yet propel matters into a constitutional Lost World of political monsterdom. The tension is building. Read More
One month ago I wrote an article – Silent Obedient Consent – about our day in Cape May Lighthouse State Park and my disappointment in seeing so many perfectly healthy young people obediently wearing their face muzzles, as dictated by government bureaucrats, on a bright crisp autumn day in a 244 acre state wild preserve. I found it sad that so many could be controlled so easily by so few. Read More