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October
07
2017

Nate to threaten US Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend
Alex Sosnowski


Nate will threaten part of the central Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States as a hurricane with flooding, strong winds and isolated tornadoes this weekend.

Flooding from Nate has already claimed lives in Central America.

Anticipation of Nate's arrival has already prompted evacuations in low-lying coastal Louisiana parishes and Alabama counties.

Gasoline and natural gas prices may rise. As a precaution, operations on offshore rigs in the projected path of Nate will wind down, according to Reuters.

Evacuation of offshore rigs began on Thursday. Energy companies with refineries in the path of Nate were monitoring the situation for possible shutdown.

Where is Nate likely to come ashore?

 


"Nate will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and make landfall along the central part of the U.S. upper Gulf coast on late Saturday night or early Sunday morning," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the central Gulf coast from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. People should not be on the road during this time.

Nate is likely to make landfall somewhere from the western part of the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana. The exact point of landfall will be determined once the storm begins to move north of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

"In all likelihood, this storm will impact areas not severely impacted by Harvey or Irma. The extent of the damage will depend, of course, on the precise path and whether the storm intensifies beyond a Category 1 storm," AccuWeather Founder, President and Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers said.

From a climatological standpoint, most hurricanes have not made landfall in Texas or western Louisiana, but have moved inland farther to the east during October.


Only if Nate tracks much farther west than currently forecast may heavy rain and damaging winds reach Harvey-ravaged Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Similarly, only if Nate travels much farther east than currently forecast would flooding rain and high winds reach Irma-ravaged areas of Florida.

How much may Nate strengthen?

How serious the impacts are and exactly which areas are hardest hit by winds, waves and flooding will depend on the strength and track of the system.

Nate is moving forward at more than 20 mph. This forward speed will limit the storm's ability to strengthen a great deal.

Nate is highly unlikely to make landfall as a Category 4 or greater storm.

At this time, Nate is likely to make landfall in the U.S. as a Category 1 hurricane.

However, a hurricane that reaches Category 1 strength has the potential to reach Category 2 or 3 (major hurricane) status in a matter of hours.

Central Gulf coast threats from Nate include flooding and tornadoes

Vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas, such as New Orleans; Mobile, Alabama; Biloxi, Mississippi; and Pensacola, Florida, should treat Nate as a serious threat for flooding from heavy rain and storm surge.

New Orleans is below sea level and is protected by levees.

"New Orleans levees that have been upgraded since Katrina and pumps that have been repaired in recent weeks may be tested this weekend," according to AccuWeather Expert Meteorologist and Chief Operating Officer Evan Myers.


"A hurricane that rolls ashore just east of New Orleans can push a great deal of water into Lake Pontchartrain."

Once this water is pushed into the lake, northerly winds on the back side of the hurricane can push the high water levels toward the northern shoreline of New Orleans.

Officials have emergency generators on standby for pumping operations in New Orleans, according to NOLA.com. Out of 120 main line pumps, 108 are operational at this time.

People are encouraged to heed all evacuation orders when they are given.

In terms of rainfall and severe thunderstorms, the anticipated moisture versus dry air pattern will likely cause Nate to be lopsided.


"The heaviest rain is likely to fall near and just east of the center of the storm, until after it begins to move inland over the U.S.," Rossio said.

"Once Nate moves well inland, the heaviest rain will shift toward the north and northeast of the storm center later Sunday and Monday."

Wind gusts will be strong enough to cause minor property damage, push down trees and lead to power outages.

Isolated tornadoes can also occur well east of the center of Nate on Sunday and Monday.

Rip current risk to extend along entire Gulf of Mexico coastline

Wind and wave action will produce rough seas and dangerous surf throughout the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

The greatest coastal impacts will focus from part of the central Gulf coast to the upper west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Small craft throughout the Gulf of Mexico should remain in port this weekend. Bathers should avoid venturing beyond knee-deep water as the number and strength of rip currents will increase substantially even as far west as Texas.

The potential for coastal flooding will extend well east of the center of the storm.

AccuWeather is projecting a total of 17 tropical storms, which includes 11 hurricanes, through December 2017 in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane season officially ends at the end of November.

Including Nate, there have been 14 tropical storms, eight hurricanes and five major hurricanes thus far.

"To stay safe, we urge people to keep checking AccuWeather.com and the AccuWeather apps for the latest developments," Dr. Myers said.

 

Well, I first became interested in the weather in the 1960s while watching giant snowstorms in the Northeast. I was at an aunt's house in "Weatherly" Pennsylvania during a vicious thunderstorm that dropped 3 inches of pea-sized hail. We made snow cones! Lightning hit a telephone pole in the back of the house;another strike hit a pole in the front of the house. A year or two later my home was destroyed by the swollen waters of the Susquehanna River during Agnes in 1972 in Kingston, Pa. So, I guess God was trying to tell me something. I remember hearing Elliot Abrams and John Kocet on WARM radio in Scranton soon after that, as well as seeing Dr. Joel Myers, Dr. Joe Sobel, Elliot and Mike Steinberg on Weather World in the mid-1970s… which pretty much solidified the whole deal.

I also remember having a terrifying experience when I hit a patch of black ice on I-80, while driving from University Park to my parents place in the early '80s. I was a student at PSU at the time and was having second thoughts about meteorology earlier that week. The experience changed my mind for good. I thought 'why weren't these roads treated?' I felt I had to do something about it… to save people's lives by keeping them safe and forewarned.


 

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