The Silver Bear Cafe

Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs have been raised and lowered – now they’ve been blocked then reinstated. It’s a reminder that uncertainty is the only certainty. Here’s how this economic uncertainty is affecting our savings…

We’re not talking Ghostbusters level “Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!” level chaos. But nobody knows what will happen next-level chaos. The kind that reminds us the world is inherently unstable.

What exactly is causing the economic chaos?

Now, those who support Trump will argue that Trump is using tariffs as leverage to push for better trade deals and to reset foreign policy situations that really need to change.

Judging from how quickly many countries have come to the bargaining table when Trump threatened tariffs, the tariffs seem to be having their intended effect. Trump's opponents, on the other hand, believe that Trump is creating economic chaos to benefit his supporters.

I'm not here to argue for either position. I'm just pointing out that Trump’s decisions as President have a huge part in the current situation in the economy, and his tariffs are possibly the biggest driver of the uncertainty.

If you’ve been following the news, then you may know that most of Trump’s tariffs were recently blocked in court. Ben Berkowitz and Courtenay Brown with Axios write,

They also noted that, with this court ruling, Trump’s leverage to force renegotiations with other countries was, effectively, wiped out.

Not even close. Because another court very quickly set that court ruling aside, at least temporarily. Jack Phillips with The Epoch Times tells us:

Frankly, no one knows at this point if the tariffs will be allowed to be fully implemented or if they will end up being permanently blocked after the court’s review.

And until we know that, we don’t have a way to know if Trump’s trade negotiations with other countries and his overall economic plan will be able to be fully implemented. Or, if they are implemented at all, how that will happen.

Frankly, it’s a giant mess, and it’s causing U.S. businesses to be hesitant about importing anything. They don’t know if tariffs will be in place (or not) to make their order cost substantially more than they were planning on. They don’t want to make huge decisions, like on-shoring their supply chains, if it turns out they don’t need to.

This uncertainty is just awful for business planning. And it’s not clearing up any time soon – as we learned today:

@realDonaldTrump

Two weeks ago China was in grave economic danger! The very high Tariffs I set made it virtually impossible for China to TRADE into the United States marketplace which is, by far, number one in the World. We went, in effect, COLD TURKEY with China, and it was devastating for them. Many factories closed and there was, to put it mildly, “civil unrest.” I saw what was happening and didn’t like it, for them, not for us. I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual. Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!! The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!

To make matters worse, there’s an obscure provision in Trump’s big bill that could make matters significantly more complicated…

Is the U.S. becoming hostile to foreign investment?

Legislation currently working its way through Congress has a buried provision I only recently became aware of. No surprise, it’s over 1,000 pages long. Turns out there’s a tax that could turn into a real obstacle for foreign investment in the U.S. As Bloombergreported:

The item – introduced in legislation that passed the House last week as Section 899 and titled “Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes” – calls for, among other things, increasing tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems “discriminatory.”

And if you’re asking, “So, what’s the big deal?", they continue:

Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in [the U.S. economy and debt instruments] has already been shaken by Trump’s erratic trade policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal accounts.

Because available capital is a huge driver in business growth (and, therefore, economic growth overall), anything that hampers money being loaned to and put into American businesses, especially large amounts of capital that could be accessed if the situation is conducive, could hurt the growth of the U.S. economy.

It’s a difficult situation, and the rapidly changing announcements coming out of both the White House and the court system is making those who would want to do business in the U.S. concerned.

Because capital avoids uncertainty.

And don’t just take my word for it. A report from the European Investment Bank puts it this way:

We find that uncertainty has an economically significant negative effect on capital. Uncertainty is found to have an economically significant negative effect on employment growth, as well.

Uncertainty is bad for business (and bad for us, too)

While it’s true that institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, control a huge part of the money that is used to drive business growth, they aren’t, by any means, the only ones who do that.

In fact, many, many families do the same things.

And, then, there are the businesses themselves which have to figure out the best way to allocate their available funds to make sure that the business is viable over the long term and can grow. If the economy is unstable, it’s incredibly difficult for them to plan, and if they’re unable to effectively plan, how can they know where to use their funds to grow their business?

Economic uncertainty makes planning for the future virtually impossible. Fortunately, there’s a partial solution…

This is exactly why many institutions, central banks and everyday American families diversify their savings with inflation-resistant assets. Stores of wealth, ones that, history shows, maintain their value over the long term. Regardless of what happens in politics or the economy. Because physical precious metals have intrinsic value that’s recognized and prized around the world.

If you’re ready to begin your due diligence about the benefits of diversifying with precious metals, get our free 2025 Precious Metals Information Kit.

Peter Reagan is a financial market strategist at Birch Gold Group. As the Precious Metal IRA Specialists, Birch Gold helps Americans protect their retirement savings with physical gold and silver.