Overturning Roe v. Wade May Prevent World War III
A Glide Path To World War III
In recent weeks, the United States has been on what's essentially a glide path to World War III. In my previous post on the Ukraine War, I wrote that it was a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia. That's no longer a fringe view: The New Yorker is now calling it a proxy war too.
In the same post, I noted that the U.S. had so far given Ukraine $3.8 billion in military aid.
Since then, Congress passed a lend-lease bill for Ukraine by a vote of 417-10, and President Biden has called for an additional $33 billion in aid for Ukraine.
Relentless Pro-War Propaganda
Meanwhile the level of pro-war propaganda has been relentless. One perennial element of war propaganda is the dehumanization of the proposed enemy. Here is the co-chair of European Council of Foreign Relations sharing an artwork that depicts Russian soldiers as orcs.
At the same time, billboards agitating for further intervention in the Ukraine war have sprouted up in the West. On a highway near my home there's one calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Michael Tracey attempted to determine who paid for the billboards he saw in London and elsewhere and was stonewalled in his investigation.
In his post, Tracey connected the dots between the aggressive propaganda campaign and increasingly bellicose statements by elected officials:
"A More Aggressive, Bombastic War Footing"
Consistent with Tracey's observation, we've had Germany's foreign minister make maximalist demands about Crimea,
Despite Russia experts pointing out that Russia considers Crimea integral to its nation:
Similarly, in the U.S., we've had one Congressman call for victory over Russia, not just a return to the status quo ante,
And another Congressman introduce a de facto declaration of war against Russia:
That's a de facto declaration of war because, if it passes, the Ukraine government will almost certainly claim Russia used chemical or biological weapons, no one will bother verifying the claim, and we'll have U.S. troops openly fighting Russia.
A Social Contagion
Oxford defines "social contagion" as "The spread of ideas, attitudes, or behavior patterns in a group through imitation and conformity". In the past, teenage girls have been particularly susceptible to social contagion,
But the spread of social media may have made all of us more susceptible to it, as the meme below suggests.
What made me think of the link between the social contagion of anorexia and the current zeal for war with Russia was seeing the eminent psychologist James Thompson share a tweet by BBC presenter John Simpson downplaying the risk of nuclear war with Russia:
Thompson has experience treating anorexics, so, to his credit, he didn't dismiss my suggestion out of hand.
Enter The Alito Leak
On Monday, a highly irregular leak of a U.S. Supreme Court opinion drafted by Samuel Alito revealed that the Court is about to overturn the Roe versus Wade decision that made abortion legal nationwide (it had been legal in a number of liberal states before Roe). On the surface, this would appear to have nothing to do with the prospect of war with Russia over Ukraine, but in practice it may end up saving us from World War III by derailing the pro-war social contagion, as the updated meme below suggests.
If arguing about abortion--and legislative responses to the pending SCOTUS decision--becomes the new Current Thing in America, it will give Congressmen such as the ones quoted above a higher priority than fomenting a direct war with Russia.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
If we manage to avoid nuclear war, that will be a huge relief to those of use who live in metropolitan areas likely to be the targets of ICBMs: it will mean we won't be vaporized in the near future. We will again have a long term to invest for, but as investors we will still face headwinds due to the war in Ukraine, and the sanctions in response to it: inflation, shortages, and impending recessions. That raises the question of where one might put money to work now in light of that gloom. Below is an answer.
Let's say you have $50,000 to invest now, but you don't want to risk losing more than 20% in a worst case scenario. On Monday, our system might have presented this portfolio to you, which is essentially a hedged bet on natural gas and corn getting more expensive, and European and emerging market stocks getting cheaper over the next six months.
If each of these securities goes sideways for the next six months, you'll be up 12.77% from the net credits from the optimal collar hedges. If each of them tanks, you'll be down no more than 19.89% over the next six months. If each generates a positive return, our ballpark estimate for the return of the portfolio is about 15% in six months.
Hopefully, by then there will be an armistice in Ukraine and the prospect of World War III will have further receded.
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