Forget About a Soft Landing, What's the Shape of the Hard Landing?
A recession and hard landing is on the way. What will it look like?
Hot Economy, Rising Inflation
In Hot Economy, Rising Inflation the WSJ notes The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This. That link is not paywalled for those who wish to read.
Forget About a Soft Landing
I believe the soft landing proponents at the Fed and Goldman Sachs are in Fantasyland.
So does Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of Quill Intelligence.
No Soft Landing Anywhere
Regarding stock and bond market action:
Shape of Things to Come
If we can rule out a soft landing, what will a hard landing look like? The WSJ models are so out of date.
We need some new economic thinking and Economic Modeler Extraordinaire (EME) Rudy Haverstein leads the way with three proposals.
First I have a note about amazing success.
The Fed had such amazing success in bring about inflation. Did it ever stop to take a bow?
I think not, and what a travesty to have such unglorified success. But what's next?
Spiral Out of Control Theory
Tipping Point Theory
Competing Economic Theories
Might We See a Minimal Job Loss Recession?
There is one aspect of the Goldman Sachs thesis that may be correct.
Before people start getting fired or laid off, hiring will slow. Then employers will cut hours. I do not expect to see the sustained mass firings and layoffs that we saw in 2008-2009.
I discussed that idea in Might We See a Minimal Job Loss Recession? Why Not?
Those looking for outright delusion can find it in multiple places. For example, on April, James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, won my Hoot of the Day award.
St. Louis Fed President Says "Fed is Not Far Behind the Curve"
Also in the delusional category, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Resorts to Hope, Does Not Foresee a Recession
De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation
One of the many problems the Fed faces is de-globalization. The New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation
Interest rate hikes are a very blunt instrument and the Fed is in a bad setup largely of its own making.
Bear Market Is Over Says Cramer
Meanwhile, please note Cramer's Call Bear Market is Over: "You Have Been Warned"
On March 25, Cramer touted the end of the bear market. Let's see how well that one ages.
I strongly disagree with Cramer: Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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