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Forget About a Soft Landing, What's the Shape of the Hard Landing?
Hot Economy, Rising Inflation In Hot Economy, Rising Inflation the WSJ notes The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This. That link is not paywalled for those who wish to read. Key Points
Forget About a Soft Landing I believe the soft landing proponents at the Fed and Goldman Sachs are in Fantasyland. So does Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of Quill Intelligence.
No Soft Landing Anywhere Regarding stock and bond market action:
Shape of Things to Come If we can rule out a soft landing, what will a hard landing look like? The WSJ models are so out of date. We need some new economic thinking and Economic Modeler Extraordinaire (EME) Rudy Haverstein leads the way with three proposals. First I have a note about amazing success. Amazing Success!
The Fed had such amazing success in bring about inflation. Did it ever stop to take a bow? I think not, and what a travesty to have such unglorified success. But what's next? Domino Theory
Spiral Out of Control Theory
Tipping Point Theory
Competing Economic Theories
Poll
Might We See a Minimal Job Loss Recession? ![]() There is one aspect of the Goldman Sachs thesis that may be correct. Before people start getting fired or laid off, hiring will slow. Then employers will cut hours. I do not expect to see the sustained mass firings and layoffs that we saw in 2008-2009. I discussed that idea in Might We See a Minimal Job Loss Recession? Why Not? Outright Delusion Those looking for outright delusion can find it in multiple places. For example, on April, James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, won my Hoot of the Day award. St. Louis Fed President Says "Fed is Not Far Behind the Curve" Also in the delusional category, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Resorts to Hope, Does Not Foresee a Recession De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation One of the many problems the Fed faces is de-globalization. The New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation Interest rate hikes are a very blunt instrument and the Fed is in a bad setup largely of its own making. Bear Market Is Over Says Cramer Meanwhile, please note Cramer's Call Bear Market is Over: "You Have Been Warned" On March 25, Cramer touted the end of the bear market. Let's see how well that one ages. I strongly disagree with Cramer: Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash This post originated at MishTalk.Com. Thanks for Tuning In! Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time. If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder. Mish
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