JPMorgan Sees $5,000 Gold Coming Soon
Peter Reagan

JPMorgan now sees gold pushing beyond $5,000 and the bull run lasting into 2027. Silver is breaking away all by itself. These aren’t isolated headlines – they’re signals of a world quietly repricing money, risk and sovereignty itself…

Forget 2026: JPMorgan is projecting $5,000 gold targets throughout 2027

According to latest research by JPMorgan's analysis team, gold will not only break $5,000 in 2026, but will reach even further, to $5,400 in 2027. That’s already a lot. In addition, they're very much leaving the window open for $6,000 gold "over the longer term."

Doesn't that mean we could be seeing a gold run until 2030, if not longer?

It wasn't that long ago that I covered two notable analysts joking how gold has “a $3,500 question.” If we're asking JPMorgan, in which case it's “a $4,500 question.”

It was around the LBMA-COMEX squeeze this summer, which, as I've elaborated repeatedly, has turned out to be far more than just a minute news item.

The analysts' joke was meant to say how JPMorgan is perhaps being unreasonably bullish in their gold forecasts, presenting even loftier targets than the already-lofty ones by other top banks.

Well, here we are now, essentially having reached $4,500. Some $150 off, but I don't believe anyone is getting caught up on that.

We now know that even the most bullish big bank forecast wasn't excessive, and we also know that JPMorgan had the most spot-on projections among the banks, sort of daring to tread where others wouldn't.

So, we should be attuned to anything they might be saying about gold, given their accuracy so far.

And, as I mentioned above, they are saying things that would have come off as a gold bug's fever dream two days ago.

Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, explained that gold's run isn't going to be straightforward as it hasn't been so far, meaning corrections should be expected.

Though, in fairness, we haven't really seen any notable corrections for two and a half years now.

Not what any mainstream outlet would have you believe, of course.

Whenever gold pulled back by 5%, that was it, the selloff was here, and gold's run might have been exhausted.

Imagine what they might do if it pulls back 10% or 15% on the road to $5,000 or even $6,000?

This kind of fearmongering is what investors must be very aware of as the global landscape shifts to one where gold is centerpiece.

That's exactly what Kaneva said: that what we're seeing is a long-term trend of both official sector and private investor diversification into gold as a necessity, rather than an option.

It's what I've been pointing to this entire time, among a few other fundamental drivers, to dismiss the idea that gold is going up because of Trump tariffs, Middle East explosions or whatever happened yesterday.

JPMorgan devoted what looks to be the majority of their analysis to central bank purchases, really delving deep into why and how they're powering this run.

From the end of 2023 to the end of 2024, the percentage of gold in global central banks' portfolios rose from 15% to 20%.

This is huge on its own, and all the more so when we put it in the scope of JPMorgan's analysis.

If central banks under 10% were to up their reserves to 10%, it would mean an additional 2,600 tons bought, almost three times the overall net purchases from the official sector annually.

That's if gold is $4,000, meaning $335 billion spent. If gold is $5,000, then the same reserve allocation would mean 1,200 tons bought for $194 billion.

In other words, central banks, by far the largest gold buyers, like gold cheap, because they can excuse getting more of it.

As has been the case for years, for this and many other reasons, dips to even $4,000 will probably be met with strong buying on behalf of central banks.

But they have been cited as a key pillar of support going back more than a decade, so that's not exactly new.

What we might instead want to focus on here are the figures. Are you seeing what I'm seeing? $194 billion? $335 billion?

That is a lot of increasingly worthless fiat being traded in for real money by people whose financial plans are multi-decade. They also happen to be printing those very same worthless fiat currencies.

That leaves us with the question of whether the gold market can handle an increase of 1,200 to 2,600 tons in buying.

Probably not, as it's in an increasing annual deficit of over 1,000 tons and the supply picture is looking worse than it has in a while.

None of this is being factored in in JPMorgan's forecasts of $5,000 or even $6,000 gold, but it's something the experienced gold investor might want to think about.

Silver market is causing jitters as we head to the end of the year

As MSN reports, silver climbed to $69.60 last week before pulling back to around $65 to $67, depending on who you ask. (At the moment, Dec. 22 2025 4:33pm New York time, silver is trading at $68.93... and remember you can always confirm real-time precious metals prices here.)

No doubt, regular readers have come to expect an answer the following question on a weekly basis: What's happening with silver?

We may or may not be seeing the reckoning that many of us have been expecting for a very long time, a strong upside correction for silver. (Well, obviously, we have seen it for weeks now, but as I have long argued, we're still not quite there.)

Things have been unfolding more or less as I have outlined, in somewhat speculative fashion. Once in a while, my speculation comes true... A climb to $50, then a pullback. A climb to $60, then another pullback. And now, a climb to $70 and then yet another pullback.

Week after week, right on schedule. Even though silver is one of the year's top performing assets (I'm not talking about top performing precious metals, or even top performing commodities. I mean top performing among all financial assets.)

40 cents off of $70, a huge benchmark on the way to $100... "Psychological levels?" I don't see it! When silver was $35, I said that nothing under $50 was relevant. It was almost an insult to make note of silver hitting $38 when gold was breaking $3,000.

But even when it hit $40 and then $50, I outlined the exact hurdles that a seemingly booming market is facing right now.

I said that each $10 threshold is going to be met with resistance by traders, and I capped off my forecasts at $70. I believe that if silver can pass $70, we might be able to comfortably start forming forecasts of $100. Sound a bit far-fetched? It's really no stretch if we just look at what palladium has done over the previous decade. Granted, palladium's structural picture is nowhere near silver's, and palladium's industrial uses are extremely limited compared to silver's. Which is why we see calls for silver soaring above $200.

Today is the most exciting time for any experienced silver investor in decades.

Gold surprised many when the year turned from 2023 to 2024 and it jumped right away, albeit with plenty of tailwind.

Can silver do the same? It's far better positioned to do so than gold was.

The next few weeks will probably answer all of that. For now, let's keep a few important points in front view.

Silver's recent price action happened with no movement in the gold market, more or less. Which implies that silver is on its own. Skeptics can't claim that silver's price is following gold right now. 

What happens after that remains to be seen. The moderate precious metals forecaster Ronald Stoeferle has doubled down on his $100 silver forecast, so that is now fully in the conversation as Incrementum AG's official position, sort of.

I also noticed an interesting comment under an equally interesting piece by India Times on YouTube, featuring David Tait, CEO of the World Gold Council.

The interview is called the New Gold Order, and, as you might imagine, it talks about gold unofficially returning to circulation. Perhaps officially, too.

One commenter wonders why none of their experts told them silver would double this year.

I tried to do that, but this is no "bitcoin in 2017" story. You didn't need some great insight that nobody could see.

Silver should have been $70 and above since the start of the year! The good news is that the $100 and even $200 forecasts are fully grounded in fundamentals, including the gold/silver ratio and the structural deficit, so you haven't missed any boats when it comes to buying silver before it corrects to what it should be relative to gold.

That was fast! Italy defends central bank gold reserves against ECB's wishes and warnings

Just as I reported that Italy wants to protect its gold from "foreign interests," Reuters tellsus that it happened. The Italian legislature specifically went against the European Central Bank's wishes and warnings, protecting its 2,500 ton central bank gold reserves, currently valued at $300 billion.

Italy used sneaky wording to make this happen. Essentially declaring that the central bank's gold reserve is actually is "the people's gold." Of course, citizens won't actually see any of it, and will continue to struggle covering basic living expenses. Even though Italy is a prime exporter of, well, more than you'd expect. (Ah, the wonders of financialization...)

But this decision gives Italy a lot of financial sovereignty. Now, in theory, reserves held abroad can't be seized should Italy fail to meet debt obligations. And that's all but certain, considering Italy has the dubious honor of the second highest debt to GDP ratio in the Euro zone (second only to fiscal basket case Greece). You might remember the Euro zone debt crisis that kicked off in 2009, one of the international consequences of the Great Financial Crisis. The massive sovereign debt burdens of Italy, along with Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (immortalized by the acronym "PIIGS") threatened to sink the entire European Union. But the Euro Zone muddled through, just barely. The euro lost over 40% of its purchasing power, millions of citizens lost a lot more... but the European Union, and its currency, survived its first real stress test. 

Sorry for the history lesson, but it's relevant. See, there's no reason for Italy to change the legal status of its central bank gold reserves except in advance of a debt default. Now, should the Italian government decide not to repay its debt, investors can't claim that gold as payment. The government can now just say, Sorry, we'd love to pay you, but that gold isn't ours, it's the people's. 

This move raises some obvious questions. With one of the largest gold reserves in the world, a respected manufacturing sector and a diverse economy, does Italy even need the EU anymore? If Italy simply nopes out of the EU, and defaults on its debts, it still has a massive gold reserve... More than enough to bootstrap another currency (lira 2.0 perhaps?) and act as security for a new round of creditors? Like Russia, but far better positioned geographically, economically and financially. On the other hand, I seriously doubt Italy has any desire to become a pariah state like Russia has (or other serial defaulter nations, like Venezuela and Argentina). 

Here's the real message: This move is Italy's way of telling the European Central Bank, “Our gold is not automatically on the table if things go sideways.” I don't see this move as a prelude to leaving the EU. Rather, it's a strategic act that affects future debt restructurings, fiscal negotiations and crisis talks. 

What this really reminds me of is: 

• Germany's insistence on gold repatriation
• Massive central bank gold buying from emerging nations like Poland, India, Brazil and especially China

In other words: Countries are quietly drawing lines around their assets that matter most. Gold is one of the few assets they can legally, politically and psychologically defend. That they can physically secure in their own vaults. 

Something is shifting. But the real story isn’t about Italy leaving the EU, or even planning to default on its debts. Rather, I think the shift we're seeing is: 

Everyone, even developed Western nations, are preparing for a world where monetary rules become negotiable under stress.

That’s not rebellion, not exactly. That’s risk management. And it reinforces the same theme running through JPMorgan’s gold outlook:

Long-term planners are positioning for systemic uncertainty. 

That's why I talk about these sorts of stories, the ones you aren't likely to see on CNN. When central bankers foresee major financial uncertainty on the horizon, and they take steps to prepare their nations for the coming storm, it's a message to everyday Americans like you and me. A message we'd be prudent to heed.

 

 

Peter Reagan is a financial market strategist at Birch Gold Group. As the Precious Metal IRA Specialists, Birch Gold helps Americans protect their retirement savings with physical gold and silver.

 

 

 

www.birchgold.com