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Gone in 60 Days: Citi and Bank of America Won’t Live to See May
If there’s one thing our readers know, it’s that ChartingStocks.net has made some bold calls in the past which seemed controversial and highly unlikely at the time. Our January 2007 post warned of the coming stock market crash at a time when the market was making new all time highs. In February 2007 we warned about the breakdown of the brokerage stocks and singled out Bear Stearns (Trading at $160), Merrill Lynch (Trading at $87), and Morgan Stanley (Trading at 78). In September 2007, we warned of a selloff in the coming weeks. The market peak and decline began 4 weeks later.
The US government has already committed half a trillion dollars to these two firms which is more than 10 times the amount it would cost to buy and control both companies. The market doesn’t believe that $500 billion is enough to save these companies. Today both banks made fresh new lows with Citi closing at $2.51 and Bank of America closing at $3.93. The 1 year charts below show the short term price movements. You should understand that when a bank stock’s chart looks like this, even a HEALTHY bank would be in trouble. Nobody wants their deposits tied up in a company that trades at $2. The outflows of deposits from Bank of America and Citi must be catastrophic. The stock charts and potential run on these banks are not the only basis for our opinion. The media can be an excellent investing tool if you know how to decipher the news. We don’t watch the news for the information, we watch if for THE LIE.
The government uses the media to float policy before the public so it can digest it. By the time the government takes the action, most people not only anticipate it but are even asking for it. In the past two weeks there have been countless debates, op-ed’s, and even opinion polls regarding bank nationalization. The popular opinion among the establishments “Experts” is that nationalizing the banks may be the only way. Even Alan Greenspan, a LIBERTARIAN, recently said that it would be a good idea. It’s coming folks! It’s what the establishment wants. (Sidenote: They may not actually use the word nationalization, even if thats exactly what they do) Below is the long term view of BAC and C. These stocks have made multi decade lows. Other stock charts which looked similar to these were Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Bear Stearns. What happens to the shareholder? We can only speculate that the deal would look something like the takeover of Fannie and Freddie. We believe that the common and preferred shareholders will be wiped out while the bondholders MAY be protected. [Update: We noticed in some of the comments that we may have offended a few REAL Libertarians by calling Alan Greenspan one. We should have phrased it as "Self-Proclaim Libertarian." Although, there was a time when Mr. Greenspan was a true libertarian, he's drastically changed his views over the years though he still claims to be a libertarian. A Ron Paul he is NOT.] |
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Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) won’t live to see May. The government will take them over within the next 60 days. The announcement may come as soon as tomorrow evening.
We’re going to make another bold prediction. Bank of America and Citigroup won’t live to see May. The two banks will be nationalized in the coming weeks, and we think that the announcement can come as soon as tomorrow evening (Friday evenings are when major bank announcements and failures occur).
We play close attention to air time given to so-called “Experts” and the way the media spins the information. If you know that our mainstream media is simply a licensed PR firm for the US government, you can get vital information which you can use in trading. Always ask yourself - What opinion are they trying to insert? What are they selling? What’s the underlying agenda?