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08
2014
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Investment Trends 2014 
Welcome to 2014. Here are some dominant social themes I've selected to watch in 2014. In each case, I've selected a recent mainstream article to illustrate the trend in question: Gold to begin with, given the slump this metal has been in of late... We don't have a time or a price point for gold going forward, but we do believe there are many signs of the yellow metal's manipulation and sooner or later it will be time to buy once again. Biotech is sure to continue benefiting from what we have called the "Wall Street Party," a series of presumably arranged monetary and regulatory events that are boosting equity markets higher around the world and especially in the US – albeit not without volatility. Obamacare hit the US hard late in 2013 and its current disastrous rollout carries in its wake numerous questions about the future of health fare in the US – and the future of insurers, as well. 2014 should hold some answers – if not for Obamacare itself, then for the future of the larger health care industry and structure. Fracking should continue in the news in 2014 because it is controversial and, of course, because it is a technology that reportedly holds the key to a full-on redistribution of energy resources around the world. It doesn't hurt that fracking has come along just around the time that equity markets are engaged in a nearly vertical trajectory. We're not sure what fracking holds for the world long term but in 2014, we'll probably hear many more positives about this technology that could further boost the energy sector. Obese monkeys are a growing problem in Britain and just for fun I threw this one in, asking if this could be the final straw for a system that is increasingly challenged and inefficient. A serious examination of the British health care system would actually be quite timely given the US's continual movement toward single-payer health care. For my summary trend, I picked "Surveillance and the UN," given that the Surveillance State is a growing, global government problem and the UN is making noises about opposing it. Don't believe those noises, however. They're just for show. The UN is a firmly internationalist institution; that's its mandate after all. In the future, unfortunately, I think we'll see the UN supporting the Surveillance State in numerous ways, all of them unacknowledged publicly, however. Final UN thought: What's heading toward us is first a Wall Street Party and then its disastrous aftermath. I expect the UN will play a key part in the aftermath as our leaders seem dead set on further internationalism and eventually even global governance of some type. Don't know if that's in the agenda for 2014 but it's certainly something to consider, as is realigning your assets so that you are not effectively domiciled in a single country but can travel freely. See you on the other side of the trend! The Golden Bull: Is It Gored?
And yet, how is this possible? The US has some US$200 trillion in obligations and US$15 trillion in debt. Short of a debt jubilee, these numbers will not easily be remedied. So how come currencies keep rising against gold? We've suggested manipulation and not a month ago, ZeroHedge informed us that regulators in Europe had begun an investigation into "London gold fixing." As The FT reports, "BaFin has demanded emails and documents from Deutsche Bank as part of an investigation into potential manipulation of gold and silver prices." AP doesn't delve so deeply, of course. The mainstream media at this point is rarely motivated to go beyond the official story. And the official story is that the economy is "improving" and thus people are not so willing to hold gold. "Worries about the financial system and gridlock in Washington faded ... Traders had bid the price of gold higher partly out of fear that the Federal Reserve's aggressive easy-money policies would lead to inflation and weaken the U.S. dollar. When that didn't happen, demand for gold fell." We are to believe from this, then, that most gold is held by "traders," or at least the gold that sets the price. But why this should be is unclear. As with other instruments, one would think that those who hold the gold create the demand and that for the most part traders act under directions to buy and sell. What the AP article asks us to believe is that there is an anonymous mass of traders buying and selling for their own accounts. And these traders have decided for some unimaginable reason that the US economy is recovering and therefore gold is to be discarded. On the face of it this makes no sense. These nostrums may have seemed credible in the 20th century but in the 21st century the gap between reality and reporting has widened. It is increasingly difficult to believe that there are "seasoned traders" out there who believe seriously in the idea of a significant US recovery. And thus we come to a fundamental reality, which is that such explanations are merely justifications for massive manipulations. It is not unlikely, in fact, as central banking itself is a manipulation and those who print money have control over trillions. What is also true, and we have pointed it out regularly, is that markets are not infinitely fungible. At some point the manipulation ceases and prices revert. When this happens is anybody's guess. And what kind of prices fiat currencies are really worth against gold is very difficult to say, as well. But chances are that such currencies are eventually going lower, much lower. Let's watch gold closely in 2014. This is a trend that is probably a keeper. Biotech and the Right Trends to Explore
In fact, for those who believe the current stock market boom is a rosy thing, the larger outlook could certainly be seen as a positive one. But today's equity boom in the US and abroad is more than merely the expression of proverbial animal spirits. As we have pointed out a good many times, top financial elites seem to be organizing some sort of "Wall Street Party."
Like the equity boom generally, the biotech boom is at least partially an artificial one, manufactured by the same forces that are steadily driving up the stock market. But there are other forces at work when it comes to Biotech. As noted previously in these pages, the aging of Baby Boomers is driving numerous biotech-related trends. Aesthetic medicine is a sub-dominant social theme that includes a High Alert venture capital investment opportunity: Biologix Hair. There are great amounts of wealth to be generated by part of the powerful anti-aging trend overtaking the Baby Boomer generation at home and abroad. Even generational wealth creation is a real possibility. As I have stated, "This is one idea that I believe has the potential to deliver exceptional investment returns – the elusive 'tenbagger' return I look to be leveraged to from an investment and time perspective." The initiative, Biologix, is the subject of a High Alert Capital Partners research report completed by High Alert's Director of Institutional Research, Joseph Hogue, CFA and his Institutional Research team. This report is available at High Alert Capital Partners. See more at How Searching for Gold Mines in Colombia Led to a Very Hairy Turn of Events and an Incredible Investment Opportunity. We'll hear and read more about biotech in 2014. I'd urge you to find out more about Biologix, as well. Twilight Trend: Whither Obamacare?  The Washington Post tells us that the botched Obamacare rollout is a good thing in the long run. The trend in evidence here is that a single payer system is coming to the US one way or another. Why single payer? That's been the goal of certain powerful interests behind the current system for decades. Mexico just reconfigured its health care system to support single payer and Canada is already there. For those inclined to believe that Canada, Mexico and the US are all slated to participate in some sort of North American Union – much reported on at this point – the coordination of these nations' health care systems is further evidence of such a configuration. Whether this takes place remains to be seen. But the high-stakes surrounding this trend mean that those who want to understand the shape of investing will want to follow it closely. Government involvement in health care isn't going away any time soon. The kind of involvement – the statist incursion – is what's remains in question. It has a good deal of impact when it comes to investing because health care is fully one-sixth of the US economy and there is a good deal of difference between a system in which government officials pay the bills, or at least organize their payment, and a system run by those officials. Right now it is a bit difficult to tell where the US is headed. The current system was pushed forward by the US's largest insurance companies, among others. They benefit by being part of a pre-chosen pool of insurers. These insurers would not benefit, however, from a single-payer system, and presumably would fight it. So is Obamacare a way station to a final destination or is this system the one that the US will continue to refine? The Washington Post article treats the current system as the final destination. It focuses on Obamacare as if it were an end in itself and spends a good deal of ink establishing this. In fact, this is the tone mainstream media generally takes: This is a good system plagued by bad planning. The Post tells us as much: "Beneath health law's botched rollout is basic benefit for millions of uninsured Americans. Adam Peterson's life is about to change. Peterson is among the millions of uninsured Americans who are benefiting from the Affordable Care Act, the 2010 law that launched far-reaching changes to the U.S. health-care system and is President Obama's premier domestic achievement." The Post article leaves us in no suspense as to its verdict. It ends with Adam Peterson successfully navigating the Obamacare insurance 'Net and signing up:
The worry for investors is whether Obamacare represents an end in itself or is part of a larger trend toward a further consolidation of the healthcare industry. The latter evolution would have considerable impacts on a variety of US industries, portfolios and investment options. In 2014, we'll surely see this trend begin to play out, with all the implications it has for the larger US economy. Fracking Trend in Flux  CTV News asks, "What is fracking and why is it so controversial?" This, in fact, seems to be the trend to watch. Not the efficacy of fracking so much as the social turmoil it seems to leave in its wake, and this article is no exception, dealing with recent protests against fracking in New Brunswick, Canada. The article begins by defining fracking as "a form of natural gas extraction that involves pumping millions of gallons of pressurized, chemically treated water into shale formations or coal beds. The fluid, injected deep into the ground, creates or widens cracks in the rocks, leaving methane gas free to escape from underground." Of course, fracking is also used to extract oil but "vast caches of natural gas in North America," are available with the technology. "According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale gas will account for nearly half of the natural gas produced in the country by 2035." In New Brunswick alone, there are supposedly 80 trillion cubic feet of shale gas resources. "If used to generate electricity, it could supply all of New Brunswick's residential, commercial and industrial needs for over 100 years," a New Brunswick official said, according to the article. But as elsewhere, there is trouble on the fracking front." Several regions of the country staged protests. Fracking faces strong opposition from environmental groups, which raise concerns about the effect shale gas extraction has on water sources and climate change." And the article reminds us that "fracking can lead to the contamination of underground sources of drinking water and surface waters due to spills and faulty well construction." As a result, the Quebec government has halted shale gas drilling and fracturing on the St. Lawrence River as new legislation is considered. This is taking place not just throughout Canada but around the world as the fracking phenomenon expands. Both the US and Britain are scheduled for oil and gas self-sufficiency as a result of fracking technology according to some estimates. But critics claim the output of fracking is highly exaggerated and that the wells are expensive to drill and don't produce estimated results. The controversy brings us back to considerations of real reasons for fracking. One can make the argument that fracking technologies could have been implemented any time in the past 50 years ago. There may be two reasons for advancing the technology now: First, as we have pointed out, fracking may be making oil and gas so plentiful that the petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia is coming into question. If the Saud family no longer serves as the marginal producer of oil and gas, then it likely will not be able to enforce a currency contract that demands countries purchase energy in dollars. This could well destabilize the current dollar reserve currency regime and usher in something else, perhaps a more flexible international currency built along the lines of a government-backed "bitcoin." Additionally, it is very possible that fracking is intended to bolster the "Wall Street Party" meme we've identified. Fracking holds out the promise of plentiful, efficient oil and gas, and that can lead to the elevation of animal spirits on Wall Street. It is not clear at this point exactly what role fracking is going to play in larger elite promotions but it is a flexible meme that can be used in a variety of ways and can contribute to the larger monetary and energy dialectic. Its significance is not fully clear yet, but no doubt further clues will emerge about this theme's positioning and import. We'll keep a close eye on this one in 2014. Giggle: Does Health Care for Obese Monkeys Threaten NHS?  In this issue, we've focused partially on health trends and projections, but here's one for a laugh. Apparently, England especially has been hard hit by an epidemic of monkey obesity. The problems are compounded by monkeys' "couch potato lifestyle." "First it was Britain's human population, then its cats and dogs," the article informs us. "Animal welfare experts have warned that growing numbers of primates are facing problems with their weight, as a result of sugar-rich diets and lack of exercise." This would seem to be, perhaps, an insignificant matter. But not so: An estimated 5,000 monkeys are pets in the UK and a growing proportion seem to be suffering from unhealthy lifestyles. The article quotes Jean Smith, manager of the Yorkshire Monkey Sanctuary, as saying: "We have had them too fat to move sometimes. It is just a question of the wrong diet. They are fed on things like sweets, pizza, chips and cake – whatever their owner is eating. And many don't have enclosures large enough to run it all off." Half of the monkeys that Smith receives are suffering from ills relating to bad diet and lack of exercise. And the results go beyond weight issues. Many of the monkeys have developed modern ills such as diabetes – which means they cannot eat a monkey favorite – bananas – but must dine on vegetables and oatcake. According to the article, the sanctuary may expand from its ten-acre site and regularly receives inquiries of various desperation. Our question is, who will pay for the treatment as this problem expands? Will Britain's NHS somehow be drawn into an expanding funding mess? Could primate obesity throw a final "monkey wrench" into the NHS system? Okay, more seriously, Britain's National Health Service is notoriously inefficient and underfunded and that won't change in 2014. Its progress – and unraveling – is something to keep track of when considering the trajectory of Obamacare and its ultimate fate in the US. Is the UN Anti-Surveillance? And When to 'Get Out of Dodge'  Here's a summary trend that encompasses a lot of the trends to watch in 2014. The expansion of the Surveillance State around the world, as exposed by Edward Snowden, is surely the most critical issue facing investors as they look toward 2014. It should have an effect on every part of their portfolios as they position themselves for the upcoming years. Of course, the denunciations of the Surveillance State have already begun around the world. And the UN itself recently joined the blizzard of excoriations, as the Center for Democracy and Technology recently reported. The article tells us that the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) "adopted the right to privacy in the digital age. The resolution signals that the General Assembly considers privacy an important issue for the United Nations agenda and bolsters the growing drumbeat in favor of international surveillance reform." Do we really believe the UN is concerned about privacy in a digital age? The UN's famous Security Council includes China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These states are actually originators of the privacy problems that the UN General Assembly purportedly wishes to address. They also hold veto power over any UN actions; thus expecting anything meaningful to come out of the UN when it comes to anti-surveillance measures is not sensible. In fact, the UN is more likely to support the expansion of a surveillance state than to oppose it. The UN's infamous Agenda 21 is so far a voluntary plan of the United Nations to implement something called "sustainable development." Stripped of its fancy descriptions, sustainable development proposes that "leaders" along with "experts" decide how many resources people are entitled to and how they ought to utilize those resources. It is a prescription for generalized totalitarianism and even a form of neo-eugenics. Like most of what comes out of the UN, it is inevitably sponsored by banking and political elites who want further internationalism. The UN is ultimately their operation. For those who want to be free – or at least freer – of the encroaching Surveillance State, there are steps that can be taken. Most of these revolve around relocation as well as legal ways to reduce the economic burden that one carries when located in the West and especially the Anglosphere.
Reposition yourself efficiently and you won't have to worry about fallout from the Wall Street Party that we are currently predicting. In fact, you may be able to take advantage of it and then partake of "rebound assets" as well. We'll be discussing this and other issues throughout 2014. Stay tuned.
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The gold trend is down. 
The Boston Globe tells us that the Biotech IPO boom is likely to continue in 2014 and that the view is "generally rosy."