bear tracks
02.02.13- If we don't change course, we may end up where we are heading
Johnny Silver Bear

As the editor of the Silver Bear Cafe, I spend most of my time researching current events. I explore the markets, the economic war that is being waged on the middle class, precious metals, the Federal Reserve, energy, and how to go about surviving financially. In this weekly column I will attempt to condense the week's events and examine how the news might affect your pocketbook. JSB

Financial Markets

The state of the nation is bad and getting worse. Seventy five percent of Americans polled (by the Pew Research Center) don't trust the Government, and yet, we do nothing to stop the theft, greed and corruption that that has been, and continues to be, wrecking the economy. Fifty percent of Americans are one crisis away from financial failure. The present administrations solution is to put everyone on welfare. How can that work? We are being lied to, minute by minute. Kyle Bass foresees a giant crash. The stock market is being held up the Federal Reserve's printing of counterfeit money and fairy dust

From Greg Hunter:

Anybody who thinks the U.S. is in a so-called recovery isn't listening to economist John Williams. He contends, "We haven't had a recovery and we're not about to have one, and it's getting worse." Williams says it's because, "The consumer is in very serious trouble. . . . The average guy is not making it. His income is not keeping up with inflation." As far as Congress getting the budget and debt ceiling under control, Williams says, "Both sides are faced with devil's choices." If Congress does not get its financial house in order by the new deadline in mid-May 2013, Williams predicts, "It will be the end of the road . . . . They are not going to have another opportunity . . . they are pushing the limit as it is now." Williams says he expects, ". . . a negative reaction in the next 3 or 4 months to the dollar." Williams adamantly calls for hyperinflation to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2014. Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.

On the Economic War Front

As I have mentioned, many times before, there is a war being waged on the American Middle Class by those who would be kings. The, so called, benefits of our democratic society have been ingrained in us since birth. The concept of democracy is comforting to most of us. It seems to instill a feeling of security and freedom. Consequently, if the majority ruled, we would all be forced to live like the majority. Simple-mindedly. The majority, which includes our august body of politicians (LOL) is made up of clueless sheeple who believe in "something for nothing". There is no such thing.

Fortunately, the Founders did not think like the majority. If the majority had ruled, we would have never had a revolution. The Founders were part of the minority and did not establish our government as a democracy. In fact, the only references to democracy in the founding documents of our nation were purveyed in a very negative light.

Liberty is the concept on which our county was founded. Liberty is the only thing that insures our freedom. The Constitution and its first ten Amendments, (the Bill of Rights), provided for our liberties and therefore our freedom. Attempts by "the Dark Side" to subjugate the Constitution, (i.e..., the Federal Reserve Act, the Patriot Acts I and II, and any other legislation that tends to abort Constitutional mandates), have been veiled attempts to strip our liberties and therefore our freedom. Consider that in the past, we had Liberty coins, not Democracy coins. We have the Statue of Liberty, not the Statue of Democracy. We pledge allegiance to the flag, and to the Republic for which it stands, not the democracy for which it stands. Patrick Henry said: "Give me Liberty or give me death!", not "Give me democracy or give me death".

Our present state of affairs has ushered in a total breakdown in all branches of government. Currently, the most glaring example of this condition is provided by the absolute failure of justice system's regulatory agencies to perform their legal functions:

From Martin Armstrong:

The view of the American Justice System is so bad outside the United States that young lawyers take these jobs to make a name for themselves so they can get those big paying jobs. The bad ones get hired like lobbyists at law firms to try to have inside contacts because they have been there so long. But the problems economically with not prosecuting the bankers making them the “Untouchables” who keep blowing us up is not just destroying New York City, but it is causing capital to shift and is one component behind the shift to China as the Financial Capital of the World. The MF Global scandal shows how judges refuse to enforce laws and took investor funds rather than make the bankers return stolen money. That was like a bank robber gets to keep what he stole and the other depositors suffer the loss.

Unless we really reform the legal system eliminating judges who have ever worked for government and removing the personal victories for prosecutors whereby a committee issues the indictments in Washington and not the decision of a individual prosecutor, then without restoring the rule of law you cannot restore the economy. The horror stories of the wrongfully convicted by threatening family members, worse sentences, or death if they do not plead is in itself criminal behavior. That is conduct you expect from criminals. http://www.deathpenalty.org/article.php?id=407

Precious Metals

The current gold to silver ratio is 52.41 ounces of silver equals one ounce of gold. One of the most blaringly attractive arbitrage plays ever known to man, would involve this ratio. Silver is quite a bit rarer than gold, a condition that is a result of the industrial destruction of billions of ounces of silver since 1947. Nobody seems know. Nobody seems care. The knowledge of this condition would threaten (fatally) the Darkside and their slobbering minions. You need to know. You need to be aware of the Gold/Silver Ratio. It has historically been 16/1. I believe it will be much lower than that in the near future.

From Dr. Alex Cowie:

Now you’ll sometimes hear that if you took all the gold bullion in the world, and melted it into a single cube, this would measure just 23 metres on each side. To use a timely illustration, it means that all of the world’s gold would fit on two tennis courts.

That shows you very nicely just how rare gold actually is. A big part of why gold is so valuable is due to this level of scarcity.

So…how does silver stack up in these terms?

The answer is surprising. Because the world’s silver bullion would fit in a cube measuring just 17.9 metres on each side. In other words the silver cube would be significantly smaller than the gold cube.

And I’m being generous here, using the largest estimate of the total investible silver bullion I would trust. According to CPM Group, the total global inventory for silver bullion is 1.9 billion ounces. This includes 711moz in futures exchanges, 38moz government stocks, 941moz in coin form and the rest in inferred & unreported private holdings.

Many analysts are less generous, and most work on the basis of just one billion ounces of silver. That would equate to a cube just 14.4 metres on each side!

But I’ll stick to the CPM figure for now. You don’t need to cherry pick to show just how rare silver bullion really is.

Here’s a representation of that 17.9 metres cube for you (using the 1.9 billion ounces of silver number), stacked up against the world’s gold cube.

‘Global gold cube’ Vs ‘Global silver cube’ – SILVER IS MUCH RARER

 

'Global gold cube' Vs 'Global silver cube' - SILVER IS MUCH RARER
Source: Diggers and Drillers

 

As you can clearly see – there’s not much silver kicking around.

So here’s a thought: When there is clearly far less silver bullion in circulation than gold… then why is silver 53 times cheaper than gold?

I admit this is comparing apples and oranges to a degree. They are different markets and have different fundamentals.

But the core reason for the different price is that gold is primarily an investors metal, be it punter, hedge fund or central bank – they are buying for its investment qualities.

Whereas silver has long been an industrial metal, with a few investors making up a portion of purchases.

But this is changing.

As recently as 2007, investment demand was just 5% of the market.

By 2012 investment demand was 30% of the market.

And this is where China comes in.

Chinese precious metals demand has exploded recently.

All the press focus on the gold side of the story, as China’s hunger for gold means it’s now the main player in the market. That’s what happens when an economy grows in size five-fold in a decade, and gold ownership becomes legal (and encouraged) along the way!

Energy

The availability of inexpensive fossil fuels currently determines the quality of life for the whole planet. There are those who recognize that the standard of their lives will require depriving many from access to these fuel pools. That deprivation will come in the form of pricing and tariffs. One of the convoluted aspects of this situation is the concurrent stifling of any alternatives. Regular readers have come to find the many sources of energy that have been bought and shelved by the powers that be. One can't help but wondering whether or not depopulation plays a part on the Darkside's agenda.

From my 2004 Essay, Better to Light a Candle than to Curse the Darkness:

The probability that oil production on our planet has already peaked carries with it a death sentence for millions, maybe even billions of people within a single generation from now.

When we explore the economic effects of ever rising oil costs on transportation, electricity, economic growth and contraction, political power, civilization and – perhaps most importantly – food production. The picture is horrific, the ramifications being the end of the industrial age.

The "Dark Side" already controls the remaining hydrocarbon deposits of the earth.

In 1859, upon the introduction of petrol extraction technology, the world started running out of oil. There is only so much of it, and we have now reached a point where more than half of it has been used up.

What most people do not realize is that around 60% of all hydrocarbon resources have been applied to food production. Through the use of petrochemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, diesel fuel for tractors and harvesters, gasoline for farm-to-market transport, gas generated electricity for refrigeration, plastics for packaging and storage, the lion's share of this resource has been used for food production.

Here's the rub. Through the application of the world's petro-resources in this manner, "the Dark Side" has enriched itself by artificially creating a market to sell to.

Oil based agriculture is primarily responsible for the world's population exploding from 1 billion at the middle of the 19th century to 6.3 billion at the turn of the 21st. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the population.  As the population went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil. The price of food will now skyrocket because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) the food that is produced will also soar.

In order for the planet to continue to support humanity, it's numbers will have to be reduced dramatically. Because of the misinformation campaign that was launched in the first quarter of the game, "the Force" is way out of position. As I stated earlier, most don't even know there's a game going on, much less that they're playing.

I foresee many lives being snuffed out within the next two decades as a result of the inability to afford food, (starvation), or through the involvement in the dozens of disputes that will arise over allocation of the world's remaining hydrocarbon resources, (war). Remember, "the Dark Side" is on both sides of all wars. Population contraction is absolutely essential to the planet's ability to support human life.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve is (almost) out of bullets. When they finally hit the wall, next week or next month, interest rates will be forced up by a collapsing bond market, inflation will start to be realized with abandon, and deflation will finally raise its ugly head as all the bubbles pop at once. Inflation and deflation at the same time? Actually the inflation has already occurred and has been masked by the unwillingness of the banksters to lend out the trillions of counterfeit dollars the they were gifted by the Fed. It's a train wreck that happened three years ago that just wasn't covered by the Government controlled media.

From Michael Snyder:

You can thank the reckless money printing that the Federal Reserve has been doing for the incredible bull market that we have seen in recent months.  When the Federal Reserve does more "quantitative easing", it is the financial markets that benefit the most.  The Dow and the S&P 500 have both hit levels not seen since 2007 this month, and many analysts are projecting that 2013 will be a banner year for stocks.  But is a rising stock market really a sign that the overall economy is rapidly improving as many are suggesting?  Of course not.

Just because the Federal Reserve has inflated another false stock market bubble with a bunch of funny money does not mean that the U.S. economy is in great shape.  In fact, the truth is that things just keep getting worse for average Americans.  The percentage of working age Americans with a job has fallen from 60.6% to 58.6% while Barack Obama has been president, 40 percent of all American workers are making $20,000 a year or less, median household income has declined for four years in a row, and poverty in the United States is absolutely exploding.  So quantitative easing has definitely not made things better for the middle class.

But all of the money printing that the Fed has been doing has worked out wonderfully for Wall Street.  Profits are soaring at Goldman Sachs and luxury estates in the Hamptons are selling briskly.  Unfortunately, this is how things work in America these days.  Our "leaders" seem far more concerned with the welfare of Wall Street than they do about the welfare of the American people.  When things get rocky, their first priority always seems to be to do whatever it takes to pump up the financial markets.

Financial Survival

How can the Fed keep buying treasury paper, which allows the Government to keep on borrowing? While I realize that keeping the bond market inflated is the primary aim of the Central Bankers, (the Fed), to what lengths will they go to do so? What new legislation will they dream up for their puppet politicians to pass? If it never occurred to you that the Federal Reserve, (a private corporation), owns the U.S. Government, please read the following statement made by Fed Governor Ben Bernanke.

"By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."

What in blazes is positive inflation? And why would anyone, representing the people, want the price of goods and services to rise? Who, but a banker could benefit from inflation? Inflation equals rising prices. Rising prices equal more loans. More loans equal more interest. The natural evolution of man would have provided for a continuing improvement in the standard of life for all persons, if it wasn't for the heinous contrivance called inflation. Technology has provided new and improved ways to produce and deliver almost everything. Without inflation almost everything would be cheaper, or at least remain the same price. Let me restate that last part. If it wasn't for the Federal Reserve, everything would become cheaper, instead of more expensive. Most people believe that inflation is a natural economic occurrence. This is simply untrue.

From Robert M. Williams:

Back in 1980 the US experienced high inflation, close to 20% and with interest rates in excess of 18%, before the Fed finally got things under control. Companies had to raise prices and sales suffered as a result. In today’s world we are experiencing inflation, but it’s a lot harder to see. The government has changed the weighting of its inflationary indexes so the true effects aren’t reported. We also have more subtle ways of hiding inflation. Companies have learned not to raise prices since everyone can see that. Instead they’ve learned to quietly cut back on content while maintaining prices at previous levels.

I do my own shopping and I’ve noticed that the cereal boxes carry less content, in terms of weight, although the box size often remain the same. Then there are companies like Starbucks! In Latin America they carried a certain brand of mineral water that costs them +/- US $1.10/bottle, and then they sold to the public for US $2.50/bottle. I should add that it is a quality product. Four months ago they switched to a much cheaper brand, costing US $0.60/bottle, and yet they sell it at the same price. Then we have beer, a popular drink in Latin America selling for around US $2.70/bottle. Over the last two years the bottle size has been reduced from 640 ml to 600 ml, and now there’s a plan to reduce it to 580 ml. I suppose I don’t have to tell you that the price has remained constant.

I could go on but I think you get the idea. Companies find it difficult to raise prices, especially with Asian countries producing at excess capacity. So they quietly go about reducing content. The next time you go to the supermarket take a good look at the content you get for the price you pay. Pay attention to it over time and you’ll be surprised to see it shrink. They’ll be no notices or fan fair, just less content for the same price. That’s inflation, and it will never show up in the statistics.

We currently live in a world where the US, Japan, China and Europe are all printing currency at excessive rates and that is inflationary. On the other hand the Asians are flooded with excess capacity and are willing to export at cheaper and cheaper prices, even if it means a loss, in order to keep people employed. The standard of living has gone up considerably in Asia over the last decade and their leaders are afraid that rising unemployment will lead to civil unrest. Better to export at a cheaper price than lay people off! This of course is deflationary and that’s where we find ourselves today, trapped between two huge conflicting forces.

You must first realize that there are, present in our lives, enemies. You must then know who those enemies are and act accordingly.

Eliminate as much debt as possible, especially “variable rate” debt, such as credit cards and lines of credit. Interest rates will be rising, so the elimination of debt offers a “real return” of escaping rising rates by creditors.

Get some control over some fresh water.

If you are depending on Social Security, stop.

Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost always do well...

ostritchIts not what you don't know that will screw you up, it's what you know that is wrong. The spin you hear from the mainstream media is intended to mislead you. Open your eyes and face the future. If you leave your head in the sand and ignore it, you are only leaving your butt exposed for the world to kick. This all may sound like gloom and doom, but when you get a handle on what is going to happen, you will have a future filled with opportunity. Fortune favors the Informed.

More next week...

May the Great Spirit be with you always,

johnny signature

Johnny Silver Bear
Chief cook and bottle washer, The Silver Bear Cafe

Disclaimer

All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editor and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The staff of Silver Bear Cafe are not registered investment advisors and do not purport to offer personalized investment related advice. The publisher, editor, staff, or anyone associated with, or associated to the Silver Bear Cafe may own securities mentioned in this newsletter and may buy or sell securities without notice.

Archives

01.26.13- Opportunities always look bigger going than coming

01.19.13- There's too much youth; how about a fountain of smart

01.12.13- Sixty-five-year-old, one owner, needs parts ...Make offer.

01.05.13- Lead me not into temptation, I can find it by myself

12.29.12- Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups

BACK