A
Silver Dream
by Ralph Johnston |
I
had a dream last night. A silver dream.
It all starts with
a regime change in the Latin American republic of La Plata. The new president
is swept into office on the heels of 2000% inflation by an electorate fed up
with IMF-induced bank failures. On his second day in office, El Presidente appoints
a new central bank governor, an economist and former labor leader, who quietly
informs the central bank's silver lease counterparties that the leases will
no longer be rolled over. The silver must be returned at the end of the
current lease term, 55 days hence, or the central bank will go public with announcement
of the default. But the physical silver cannot easily be repaid, because it
is long gone, having been sold into the spot market and used in industrial production
a decade earlier. So the counterparties, large New York firms, have a challenge.
A distinguished
New York financial executive and former US Treasury Secretary quietly contacts
the La Plata Central bank governor and quietly proposes a settlement: a 20 million
dollar contribution will be made to the central bank governor's favorite charity,
and the leased silver will be offset by forgiving a substantial amount of La
Plata Brady bonds. Surprisingly, though, the central bank governor replies no
dice -- and by the way, Bob, El Presidente says to tell you that he's planning
to retire those Brady bonds with La Plata reals, not US dollars, at the official
exchange rate. Why should Yanqui bondholders be treated any better than La Plata
bank depositors?
Over the next two
days, the bribe offer is raised, first to 40 million dollars, then to 75 million.
The rejection of the final offer is accompanied by a leak to the London financial
press that El Presidente is considering appointing a blue-ribbon commission
of La Plata business leaders and economists to study the concept of metal-backed
currency. In Manhattan the message is received, and in a series of conference
calls between New York and Washington the policy is established: default on
the La Plata debt will be averted, at least in the short term, by assuring that
the leased silver is promptly repaid. Initially it is assumed that Treasury,
Exchange Stabilization Fund and Department of Defense silver holdings will be
sufficient to meet the crisis. But a series of phone calls quickly reveals that
in the past three decades, US government silver holdings have been drawn down
from several billion ounces to near zero. The only stocks readily available
are 320,000 ounces being held in the West Point mint and slated for production
of US Eagles. This inventory is a small fraction of the amount payable to La
Plata in 41 days, and the clock is ticking.
As the New York
banking cartel enters the physical silver market, seeking sufficient bullion
to repay the Plata Central bank, lease rates skyrocket. But some among the very
few holders of substantial quantities of physical silver in good delivery form
sense that the game is reaching its end, and refuse to come to market with their
metal, even at higher lease rates. As the bullion bankers slowly begin to assemble
the physical position they will need to meet the La Plata delivery date, industrial
silver users are crowded out of the leasing market. Even before the La Plata
deadline is reached, a series of cascading delivery defaults occurs, culminating
in rumours that the US photo giant McCartney-Black will furlough its employees
and close its plants for a few days because its just-in-time deliveries of silver,
formerly supplied by the bullion bankers from leased stocks, will be delayed.
Meanwhile, as the
leasing market is quietly falling apart, Comex trading continues. As Comex players
first observe the higher lease rates, and then begin to hear rumours of impending
delivery defaults, the bulls among them aggressively increase their long positions.
For two days, silver prices fall in the face of strong buying, as two New York
firms meet the buy orders with even more aggressive naked short writing. But
on the third day, McCartney-Black, with the failure of their primary market
-- the leasing market -- enters the Comex and begins taking physical delivery.
This is contrary to long-standing practice and handshake agreements, but what
else can they do? The instant the longs see this, they demand physical delivery,
too. There is less than 100 million ounces in the Comex warehouses -- 35 million
already certified. Mercifully, the stampede is curtailed by the early closing
time of the precious metals markets, still on their post-September 11 shortened
hours after more than a year.
That afternoon,
reassuring statements are issued by the heads of the Comex, the CFTC, McCartney
Black, and the Federal Reserve. The principal financial news television network
spikes the story, and the major international television news channel downplays
it on their evening financial broadcast. But it's too late; the word is out.
The next morning,
every bar in the warehouse is committed, and silver opens limit up. Now, the
only thing that can happen, does: in an action reminiscent of 1980, the Comex
announces new rules: all silver contracts are to be settled in cash, and no
new silver positions are to be opened.
Both of the two markets for physical silver have now ceased to operate, first
the primary market, which is the OTC leasing market; then the secondary market,
the commodity exchange. On the exchange, silver is still officially open for
business, but as the ask rises above the limit, trading ceases.
Industry needs
silver to operate. With the sole exception of photography, for which silver
is a major input factor, manufacturers' cost of silver is a very small fraction
of total production cost, but silver is essential to their processes, and no
other element can substitute for it. Electronics, medical, auto, and defense
producers must have small but steady inputs of silver. All have transitioned
to just-in-time inventory practices, thus demand is urgent. The cost of curtailing
production is huge, so the price of silver is very inelastic. It is a repeat
of the 1990s run-up in palladium prices, but this time the demand is from
every industrial sector, not just from auto manufacturers. A new, third market
must emerge immediately to serve the industrial users. Nebraska-Western, a publicly
traded holding company with large silver bullion holdings, quietly informs the
purchasing managers of the twenty largest industrial users of silver that 80
million ounces in good delivery form is for sale at the London warehouse --
at a price of fifty dollars an ounce, cash and carry. McCartney-Black immediately
charters a jet aircraft out of Gatwick and wires many dollars to a bank in Omaha.
The fiction of
a Comex silver market is officially maintained. But the market immediately perceives
that Nebraska-Western's price is the real market price. McCartney-Black and
Nebraska-Western have agreed not to disclose their deal, but New York's Attorney
General, now beginning his campaign for President as a crusading reformer of
financial fraud, gets a copy of the contract from McCartney's CFO in exchange
for full immunity, and leaks it to New York's newspaper of record. When the
editors determine, under pressure from the New York bankers, that the story
is unfit for print, the AG provides it to a small Connecticut paper, whose editor
gleefully breaks the story.
As the public learns
of the real price of silver, but is unsure how long it will prevail, small hoards
of bullion and scrap come to market. Recyclers pick through their piles of circuit
boards, recovering silver that was previously uneconomic. Eighty thousand silver
bugs start bringing their bags of Kennedy-era silver coins to smelters and coin
shops, a couple of bags at a time.
Mutual fund companies
are bombarded with inquiries about silver funds, but none exist. Fund analysts
are quickly redeployed from telcoms to silver, and they quickly conclude that
there are only two first-rate silver companies in the world. Both are Vancouver-based.
One is a miner, one is an explorer, and both have been acquiring silver properties
at bargain prices during the long bear market. Their combined market cap is
less than US$300 million, or was up until a couple of days ago. The shareholders
of these companies sell a substantial fraction of their holdings to mutual fund
managers, and invest the proceeds in gold.
Holders of physical
silver and silver mining shares reap sizeable gains, but long futures speculators
longs are disappointed. The exchange compels cash settlement of futures contracts
at the official exchange price. The President of the United States, invoking
unconstitutional emergency powers, declares silver to be a vital war commodity,
imposes price controls, sets the official price at the commodity exchange level,
and declares that anyone who has invested in silver and actually possesses it
is a greedy hoarder and an international terrorist. After all, youre either
with us or against us. The chairman of Nebraska-Western immediately ceases selling
his company's silver holdings, which are protected from U.S. government seizure
by virtue of their offshore location. In response to inquiries from purchasing
managers, Nebraska-Western says it will await the day when legal trading resumes
at an economically rational price point. Later, in exchange for immunity from
war profiteering charges, the company's chairman quietly agrees to sell twelve
million ounces to the U.S. government at the official price, to be used in critical
defense manufacturing.
It's just a dream.
It didn't really happen.
Copyright © 2002