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2004

Peering into oil's future

Verne Kopytoff, San Francisco Chronicle, 21 March 2004

Experts try to predict when the world will start running low on the natural resource that keeps all the engines running.

A Tale of Two Planets

Julian Darley, From the Wilderness, 17 March 2004

If the Saudis are right, the industrial world has decades more of abundant and cheap oil.  If Matt Simmons is right, the world is almost certainly in for global oil production decline before the end of the decade.

Crude Calculations

Jacqueline Doherty, Barron's, 15 March 2004

The era of cheap, plentiful oil may be coming to a close.

Oil market tightness is likely long term

Jeffrey Rubin, The Globe and Mail, 15 March 2004

Has the world already seen the peak in conventional crude production?

That '70s show:  Another energy crisis?

Jessica Miller, Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier, 15 March 2004

Regardless of whether the peak will happen this decade, people need to start thinking about it.

Running Out of Oil -- and Time

Paul Roberts, Los Angeles Times, 7 March 2004

The news last month that the vast Saudi oil fields are in decline is a far bigger story than most in the media, or the United States, seem to realize.

Pump Prices Just a Drop in the Bucket of Fuel Woes

James Flanigan, Los Angeles Times, 7 March 2004

Lots of motorists are ticked off that refinery outages in California have pushed the price of gasoline to $2.20 or more a gallon.  But if they understood the real cloud hanging over our energy future, their anger would rightly give way to a different emotion: fear.

Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Robert Freeman, Common Dreams, 1 March 2004

Weaning ourselves off of cheap oil, while not easy, will help ensure the vitality of the American economy and the survival of its political system.  Choosing the route of force will almost certainly destroy the economy and doom America’s short experiment in democracy.

The Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle — Can It Continue to Grow?

Barbara Ferguson , Arab News, 26 February 2004

“Everyone’s ‘plug’ factor for future energy growth is Saudi Arabia’s ability to increase its oil flow, but if this premise is wrong, the world is in store for a nasty shock.”

Is Saudi Arabia running low on oil??

MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log, 25 February 2004

The world counts on Saudi reserve pumping capacity to smooth out market ripples in demand now, and the energy industry is also counting on undeveloped Saudi reserves to meet the expected increases in world oil needs in the coming years.

Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields
Jeff Gerth, The New York Times, 24 February 2004

Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after.  Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply.

Crude Awakening

Brian Braiker, Newsweek, 17 February 2004
A prominent physicist warns in a new book that the world is running out of oil and we’re not doing anything to stave off the coming crisis.

Saudi Oil Reserves May Limit Global Role, an Expert Asserts

John M. Biers, Dow Jones Newswires, 3 February 2004

A prominent Houston energy analyst and investment banker is questioning whether Saudi Arabia will be able to continue playing the role of swing producer for the global oil market.

Get Ready for $50US Oil!!!

Bill Powers, Financial Sense Online, 1 February 2004

Many geologists believe we are in for a period of significantly higher oil prices, while nearly all economists and the analyst community predict oil prices will fall.  Who do you believe?

2003's constant surprises may not be finished

Matthew R. Simmons, WorldOil Magazine, February 2004

The 21st century oil markets, so far, have been very different than so many observers expected.  These surprises might not be as random as many believe. A clear sea change may be underway.

Has global oil production peaked?

David R. Francis, The Christian Science Monitor, 29 January 2004

If it has — or if a peak lies only a few years away — the repercussions would be huge.

Demand for oil outstripping supply

Richard Gwyn, Toronto Star, 28 January 2004

As oil supplies dwindle, not in themselves (or not for a long time) but in relation to demand, so will the price at first escalate, and then soar.

Oil:  The illusion of plenty

Alfred Cavallo, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2004

One hundred and twelve billion of anything sounds like a limitless quantity.  But in terms of barrels of oil, it's just a drop in the gas tank.

A battle against shrinking reserves

Carola Hoyos, Financial Times, 7 January 2004

BP and its biggest competitors must find fields the size of the North Sea every 18 months just to stop their reserves from shrinking.

Plan now for a world without oil

Michael Meacher, Financial Times, 4 January 2004

It is hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society.

Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil

F. William Engdahl, Current Concerns, No 1, 2004

It is increasingly clear that the US occupation of Iraq is about control of global oil resources.  Control, however, in a situation where world oil supplies are far more limited than most of the world has been led to believe.

2003

The Age of Oil is Over

Monte Paulsen, Dragonfly Review of Books, 4 December 2003

What would you do differently if you knew you would run out of oil in your lifetime?

Bottom of the barrel

George Monbiot, The Guardian, 2 December 2003

Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this:  that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out.  We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it.  This is a civilisation in denial.

Check That Oil
David Ignatius, The Washington Post, 14 November 2003
Even when the bombs are going off in Saudi Arabia, people tend to take it for granted that the kingdom has a bottomless reservoir of cheap oil.

The end of the oil age
Richard Heinberg, Earth Island Journal, Fall 2003
The consequences — if the optimists are wrong and the physical scientists are right — will be devastating for nearly everyone.

The End of the Oil Age
Dale Allen Pfeiffer, 30 July 2003
Current civilization is founded upon an abundance of cheap energy derived from hydrocarbons.  Hydrocarbons not only run our transportation; they provide the power for all of our technology.


Why America Is Running Out of Gas
Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele, 13 July 2003

Inflated oil prices and natural gas shortages are wiping out jobs and savings, thanks to three decades of bungled energy policy.  Get ready for more bungling.

ASPO, ODAC see conventional oil producton peaking by 2010
Doris Leblond, Oil & Gas Journal Online, 16 June 2003

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) — a network of scientists, universities, and government departments — met near Paris at the Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP) May 26-27 to push their serious warning that conventional oil production will peak before 2010.

Merrill Lynch publishes views on worldwide oil and natural gas industry
Oil & Gas Journal, 11 June 2003

The worldwide oil and natural gas industry faces increasing challenges in replacing reserves and growing production, according to 2002 statistics from the Merrill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group.

The End of The Fossil-Fuel Era Not Far Off:  We need an energy supply and pricing policy that's sustainable
William E. Rees, CCPA Monitor, June 2003

To avoid a serious energy crisis in coming decades, citizens in the industrial countries should actually be urging their governments to come to international agreement on a persistent, orderly, predictable, and steepening series of oil and natural gas price hikes over the next two decades.

Let’s turn world fuel crisis around
Douglas Low, Edinburgh Evening News, 24 May 2003
The importance of crude oil in everyday life cannot be understated.  Everything, absolutely everything, that we use and eat has an element of oil in it.

The Petroleum Plateau
Richard Heinberg, MuseLetter, May 2003
The realization that modern industrial society is approaching the peak in available net energy to fuel the economy is a powerful shock to one's entire belief system. It literally changes everything.

The Party's Over
Richard Heinberg, New College News

When Mike Bowlin, Chairman of ARCO, said in 1999 that “We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil,” he was voicing a truth that many others in the petroleum industry knew but dared not utter.

Taming the Oil Beast
John Carey, Business Week, 24 February 2003

A sensible, step-by-step energy policy is within our reach.  Here's what to do.

End of Cheap Oil Poses Serious Threat to World Economy, Experts Say
Environmental Media Services, Updated 6 January 2003

When will the world run out of oil?  That's the wrong question, according to experts who say it's much more important to ask when global oil production will reach its peak and begin to decline.

2002

The Oil Reckoning
Paul Rogers, Foreign Policy in Focus, 31 December 2002

Earlier articles in this series pointed to issues of weapons of mass destruction and the changes in U.S. security policy when Bush came to power, but we also have to look closely at the significance of the region's oil reserves.

The Oil Endgame
Mark Sardella, Southwest Energy Institute, 15 October 2002

Fossil fuels have served as the engine of economic growth for many years, but there has been relatively little discussion to date about the peril of having an economy based on these finite resources.

End of the Fossil-Fuel Era
Jeremy Rifkin, The Washington Post, 26 September 2002

The European Union and the United States are beginning to diverge in the most basic aspect of how a society is organized:  its energy regime.

The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Past Approaches, New Challenges
Harry J. Longwell, Director & Executive Vice President, Exxon Mobil Corporation

Strongly affecting our view of the future and our understanding of the present is the large number of complex factors influencing the current industry environment.

Analysts claim early peak in world oil production
Oil & Gas Journal, 12 August 2002

The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an unprecedented rate, with supplies likely to be constrained by global production capacity by 2010, "even assuming no growth in demand," said analysts at Douglas-Westwood Ltd.

The Coming End of Cheap Oil
John Attarian, The Social Contract, Summer 2002

Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton professor emeritus and former Shell Oil research geologist, makes a persuasive case that output will peak around 2005, give or take a few years.

Hubbert's Peak and The Economics of Oil
James J. Puplava, Financial Sense Online, 16 March 2002

Plain and simple:  the truth is oil and gas are depleting assets.  Understanding the world of energy necessitates an understanding of the role that geology, financial markets, and politics play in influencing the supply and demand curve.

Top Geologist Foreees End of Petroleum Era
Oliver Ludwig, Reuters, 18 January 2002
While the end-of-oil-soon idea has its share of critics, the stakes are high if they're wrong:  The world economy could plunge into recession unless alternative energy sources are lined up to replace it.

2001

Another Wolf at the Door
Kenneth S. Deffeyes, The American Prospect, 22 October 2001

Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade.  After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again.

The Coming Decline of Oil
Gerald Leach, Senior Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute

Amongst the billions of words brought forth by the climate debate over the past years, remarkably few have touched on an issue that ticks behind it like an unexploded time-bomb.

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