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Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon Matthew David Savinar Part 5: Managing the Crash/Coping with the Ramifications | Part
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3 | Part 4 | How am I supposed to maintain a positive mental attitude now that I know industrial civilization is about to collapse? How should I prepare emotionally? When the implications of Peak Oil hit me, I was pretty scared. I felt as though my whole future had just been drop kicked in one fell swoop. It took me a couple of days for the initial feeling of semi-panic to wear off. The only way we are going to effectively cope with the end of the oil age is effectively cope with our fear and how we view what is to come. Dealing with Fear According to author Tony Robbins, fear carries a message: Fear is simply the anticipation that something that's going to happen soon needs to be prepared for. In the words of the Boy Scout motto, "Be prepared." We need either to prepare to cope with the situation, or to do something to change it. The tragedy is that most people either try to deny their fear, or they wallow in it. Neither of these approaches is respecting the message that fear is trying to deliver, so it will continue to pursue you as it tries to get its message across. You don't want to surrender to fear and amplify it by starting to think of the worst that could happen, nor do you want to pretend it's not there. The solution to fear, Robbins writes, is: Review what you were feeling fearful about and evaluate what you must do to prepare yourself mentally. Figure out what actions you need to take to deal with the situation in the best possible way. Sometimes we've done all the preparation we could for something; there's nothing else we can do - but we still sit around in fear. This is the point when you must use the antidote to fear: you must make a decision to have faith, knowing you've done all you can to prepare for whatever you're fearing. Personally, I have come to believe that our external reality is essentially a mirror of our internal reality. If you walk around vibrating fear, you will attract external circumstances that exacerbate your fear. We tend to get what we rehearse. For this reason, it is of paramount importance that we strive for states of consciousness more productive than fear. Consider the Collapse of Oil Based Civilization an Opportunity Rather than a Tragedy Most of us in consumer based countries like the U.S. are actually very nice people. In our hearts, we really do believe in ideals such as equality, brotherhood, and justice. We would never abuse, mistreat, or kill somebody just to get something of theirs. However, to support our oil based consumer lifestyle, our government goes out and does these things for us. If the average American could feel the suffering that went into producing every piece of plastic in their home, every gallon of oil in their gas tank, and every piece of food on their dinner table, they would likely be sick to their stomach and would be willing to do whatever it takes to change things. Peak Oil will force us to change things. Peak Oil does mean that the end of the world as we know it is at our doorstep. It also means that we have a chance to create a new world in which humanity lives in harmony with itself and the earth. Such a lifestyle is no longer simply "the right thing to do." It is now a necessity if we wish to survive as a species. In The Truth about the War and Oil: The Coming Global Energy Crisis, author Stephen Hamilton Bergin takes an optimistic line that a better world will rise out the ashes. According to Bergin, some kind of crisis is almost to be welcomed to dispose of worthless government and kleptocratic management, leading to some form of a new better life for the survivors. In this regard, the experiences of former slaves following the collapse of slavery may hold some insight for us. When the system collapsed, many former slaves experienced considerable anxiety. After all, the plantation system was all that they had known, and all that their parents, grandparents and so forth had known. Many wandered nervously: What was going to replace the plantation system? How would they get their food? For whom would they work? Did they have the skills to survive in this new way of life? What would happen to their families? You may find yourself asking these same questions in regards to what life after the oil crash will be like. The fact that we find ourselves in a situation analogous to that of slaves on the verge of freedom is not all that surprising. While we are not bonded by chains of iron, most of us are bonded by the chains of a debt-based, oil fueled civilization. The collapse of this civilization may provide us with a chance for true freedom. In this regard, can't recommend enough that you read this excerpt from the "Last Days of Ancient Sunlight" by Thom Hartmann. What are some steps that I can take in the next few days to begin addressing this situation? The following list is by no means exhaustive. These are just some simple steps you can begin taking immediately. (Listed in no particular order)
What are some steps we can take as a society to deal with Peak Oil? What are some public policies that, if implemented, will help us manage this crash instead of just running into it? Peak Oil is going to happen. People are going to die. We have waited way too long to have any chance at stopping it altogether. We may be able
to minimize the amount of suffering while maximizing the chances
of building a successful post-oil civilization if we implement
appropriate public policies such as: A. Civilized Measures to Support Population Reduction The primary cause of the looming energy crisis is the fact that the world has more people than can be supported in a steady state renewable energy environment. The obvious solution is to reduce the world's population in the most civilized way possible. According to Dale Alan Pfeifer …conditions
will deteriorate so badly that the surviving human population
would be a negligible fraction of the present population.
And those survivors would suffer from the trauma of living
through the death of their civilization, their neighbors,
their friends and their families. Those survivors will have
seen their world crushed into nothing. In other words, if we do not reduce our population in an intelligent way, Mother Nature will do the job for us. We can do it ourselves if we take measures to:
B. Measures to Promote Conservation Conservation may not be popular, but without it, we have no hope of effectively coping with the coming oil shortages. Conservation measures should include measures to:
C. Measures to Support Alternative & Renewable Energy If we do not take immediate, massive and sustained action to switch to renewable energy then civilization faces the sharpest and perhaps most violent dislocation in recent history. There are a number of ways to do this:
Do you think the government is going to institute a mass mobilization plan to manage the coming crisis? On local levels, quite possibly. Some communities have already begun instituting small scale, community based measures to ensure sustainability. On the state or national levels? Absolutely not. As explained previously, the industries that now control our government are the same industries that would be hurt by such a mobilization. That means we are going to have to do it ourselves. So figure out what you can do and get to it. Clearly, we have a real problem, but you're describing the worst case scenario, right? I'm describing the most likely scenario. The worst case scenario is extinction, as the wars that will accompany the worldwide oil shortage will likely be the most horrific and widespread that humanity has ever experienced. If we get Bush out of office, will that solve the problem? Peak Oil is happening with or without Bush. In fact, you may have the Bush administration to thank for the couple extra years of cheap oil he is robbing from the Middle East. This gives us in the U.S. some extra time to prepare for the post-peak Oil Crash. (Note - I in no way feel this justifies the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan) The President, his administration, and most of our legislators have been reduced to ceremonial figureheads for the energy and defense industries. These industries control both parties. The last president to mention Peak Oil was Jimmy Carter, who in 1980 explained that we had a choice: voluntarily change our oil based way of life, or have the change forced upon us via chaos and societal disintegration. Voters preferred Ronald Reagan's assertion that "it was morning time in America." If you think Bush is at fault for the situation, you are missing the point. It's our fault for not holding all of our leaders, regardless of party affiliation, accountable for their actions. None of the current presidential candidates except Dennis Kucinich have publicly mentioned Peak Oil even once. The current Democratic frontrunner, John Kerry, supports the development of oil alternatives, but has never come close to mentioning the true scope of the crisis. In other words, regardless of who gets elected, we're on our own. I heard there is a "water crisis" on the way and it's tied into the oil crisis. Is there any truth to this? According to Matthew Simmons, "without …energy, we have no sustainable water, no sustainable food, and no sustainable healthcare…" I've got credit card or student loan debt. How will my debts be affected by Peak Oil? When things go south, and as nations scramble for dwindling resources, debts will get called in to provide the one financial ingredient that can mitigate a serious crisis: liquidity. How will my 401K be affected by the energy crisis? Whatever is left of the stock market in 2015 will evaporate as the "baby-boomers" attempt to pull their money out for retirement. You're not even trained in science. What makes you think you know what you are talking about? I am simply taking what the true experts are saying and condensing it into a bite size format. Alot of the Peak Oil websites are not what I would call "newbie friendly." Also, many fail to connect the dots between Peak Oil and recent world events. So I created this one. I bet you're some kind of raving, monomaniacal, left wing freak. Why should I think you're any more credible than every other crazy person with a website? If you think I'm writing this as a result of a mental disturbance or political agenda, then ignore everything on this page and look it up for yourself on Google. What about some counterarguments? What do the people who disagree with you have to say? Well first of all, we need to get something straight. These conclusions are not mine. They are the conclusions of people who have a much better understanding of petroleum science and geology than either you or me. All that I have done is take their conclusions and condense them into layman's terms. I suggest you ask the following questions when reading an article that claims there is nothing to worry about:
I'm by nature an optimist. This all sounds so pessimistic. If you think what you're reading is too "pessimistic" ask yourself: 1. Was Winston Churchill being a "pessimist" in 1940 when he told Britain, "I have nothing to offer you but blood, toil, tears, and sweat"? 2. Was Albert Einstein being a "pessimist" in 1939 when he told FDR that Nazi Germany was in the process of developing an atomic bomb? There is a difference between an "optimist" and a fool. An optimist is somebody who looks at bleak facts and decides to make the best of the situation that they can. A fool is somebody who looks at bleak facts and decides to ignore them because they are too upsetting. This is not a case of "looking at the glass half empty." We are looking at barrel of oil, and it while it is half full, it is far too expensive for us to purchase. I showed this site to a friend and she said, "That's ridiculous, there is tons of oil left! We won't run out for at least 50 years." Your friend is correct. The immediate crisis we face is not a lack of oil, but a lack of affordable oil. Once oil production peaks, it will begin to steadily and permanently decline. This will force a prolonged, secular contraction in GDP if adequate substitutes for oil cannot be provided. As explained above, no true substitutes for oil currently exist that can be brought online in sufficient capacity to avert a worldwide crisis. How can we best deal with Peak Oil as a society? Peak Oil is going to happen. People are going to die. We cannot stop it. But we may be able to minimize the amount of suffering while maximizing the chances of building a successful post-oil civilization if we immediately come together as a species and do the following: Stop all wars and other nonessential economic activity. Dedicate all of our time and resources to developing alternatives to fossil fuels. Drastically cut our energy consumption. We could do this in a number of ways: No more kids: We cannot feed our current population. When the Oil Crash comes, the situation will go from bad to worse to nightmarish. More children means an increased demand for food that we cannot produce. No more pets: They require food that needs to be used to feed people. No more beef eating: Cattle raising is extremely energy intensive. No more unnecessary travel: This means eating produce that is grown locally, substituting bicycles for cars, limiting our purchase of consumer goods to those that are absolutely necessary, and no air travel unless absolutely necessary. I'm the first to admit that these solutions seem implausible. Hence, my usually unbridled optimism is saddled with a good dose of caution. What should I do to prepare as an individual? Well first of all, it is absolutely imperative that you do not allow yourself to succumb to a fear based consciousness. This may be difficult as Peak Oil is going to necessitate absolutely massive changes in our way of life. However, if we allow ourselves to be overtaken by fear, we will only exacerbate the problem and duplicate the system that has brought us into this situation. Personally, I recommend the first step to be educating yourself about Peak Oil and its ramifications. Then notify as many of your friends and family as possible. Seek out like minded people and come up with some type of a plan. Unfortunately, I know very little at this point regarding how to survive without the amenities of modern civilization. As I learn more, I will post what I learn on this website under Prepare. Should I be getting a gun and hiding in the woods? If a "hole-up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation appeals to you, I encourage you read as much as possible about other civilizations that have crashed and burned. While the survivalist model works in Hollywood, it often fails in reality. When our society collapses, the rural areas may well go first. In that case, little enclaves of survivalists sitting on stockpiles of food, weapons, and gold will be too tempting a target for the bandit cultures that evolve in post collapse rural areas. Speaking of bandit cultures, you can be assured that your in-laws will come looking for food and supplies if you have them stockpiled. As stated previously, the end of the oil age is a life and death game. I think it unwise to base your life plan on a macho Hollywood fantasy. On a personal note, I won't be getting a gun. My philosophy is why bother extending my stay in hotel earth for a bit longer if I have to contribute more violence to an already violent place? Gosh, this sounds like some type of Mad-Max scenario. Such comparisons are problematic as they tend to trivialize the seriousness of our situation. History, not Hollywood, is likely the best guide for what we should expect. Again, any good book on the fall of the Roman Empire should provide you with a reasonable approximation of what the next 5-50 years will be like. Factor in modern day weaponry, and you can see that we have a real mess on our hands. I have work, school, bills, kids, traffic, etc to deal with. How am I supposed to prepare for the Oil Crash when I'm barely keeping up with life as is? Join the club. You're not the only person who has day to day problems. If Peak Oil is too much for you to worry about, feel free to ignore the facts and stick your head in the sand. Remember, however, that when you stick your head in the sand, you leave your ass exposed for the world to kick. Is there anything positive about Peak Oil? It's hard to say that there is a "bright side" to Peak Oil, but here goes: Most of us in consumer based countries like the U.S. are actually very nice people. In our hearts, we really do believe in ideals such as equality, brotherhood, and justice. We would never abuse, mistreat, or kill somebody just to get something of theirs. However, to support our oil based lifestyle, our government goes out and does these things for us. If the average American knew the amount of suffering that went into producing every piece of plastic in their home, every gallon of oil in their gas tank, and every piece of food on their dinner table, they would likely be sick to their stomach and would be willing to do whatever it takes to change things. Peak Oil will force us to change things. Peak Oil does mean that the end of the world as we know it is at our doorstep. It also means that we have a chance to create a new world in which humanity lives in harmony with itself and the earth. Such a lifestyle is no longer simply "the right thing to do." It is now a necessity if we wish to survive as a species. In this regard, a 1968 quote from Robert Kennedy is instructive. Do you think this might be God or nature's way of punishing us for having screwed things up so bad? You could make that argument if (a) you believe in a vengeful or retributive God or (b) you believe nature is a deity. Personally, I am not comfortable with either of those ideas. However, I do think Peak Oil will turn the "survival of the fittest" theory on its head. Traditionally, we have defined evolutionary-social fitness by looking at things like cunning, military strength, ability to dominate etc. . In this regard, many of us have come to regard the U.S. as the "fittest" nation because we have the biggest economy and most lethal military. Our economic and military strength, however, has one major Achilles heal: it is entirely dependant on an abundance of cheap oil. When that runs out, it's over for us. While we crash and burn, small, low tech, agrarian societies such as the Hmong in the mountains of Laos will continue on without so much as blinking an eye. Kind of ironic when you think about it. What about Karma? I don't know if I believe in "Karma" per se, but I do think that what goes around comes around. Unfortunately, we've sent alot of "it" around. In fact, sending "it" around has been our official foreign policy since the 1940's. We've even admitted it. Shortly after WW II, George F. Kennan, the American Ambassador to Moscow stated: We have 50 percent of the world's wealth, but only 6.3 percent of its population. In this situation, our real job in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which permit us to maintain the position of disparity. To do so, we have to dispense with all sentimentality . . . we should cease thinking about human rights, raising of living standards and democratization. See: George Kennan, US State Department Policy Planning Study #23 (1948), quoted in John Pilger, Hidden Agendas (The New Press, 1998), p 59 and in Richard Heinberg The Party's Over (New Society Publishers, 2003) p. 229 We've been following Mr. Kennan's advice quite well in the recent years. For instance, the U.S. dropped so much Depleted Uranium on Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War that birth defects in Iraqi babies increased by 500 percent in the next 12 years. In some cases, the radiation was so bad that 67% of American Gulf War veterans ended up having babies with serious birth defects. In 2003, we dropped so much Depleted Uranium on Baghdad that radiation levels rose to 2,000 times normal. Depleted Uranium has a half life of 4.5 billion years. Essentially, we have eliminated the Iraqi population (and many of our own troops) from the healthy human gene pool. While most of us have had nothing directly to do with such horrors, we are ultimately responsible for holding our leaders in check. Don't hold them in check and this is what you get. You make some good points, but don't you think you're tone is a bit alarmist? We are talking about the end of industrial civilization here. Given the circumstances, I think a bit of an alarmist tone is appropriate. How am I supposed to go about my daily life and maintain a positive mental attitude now that I know industrial civilization is about to collapse? As an eternal optimist, I've decided to look at the future as a giant episode of "Survivor." If that doesn't work for you, I suggest you give a good friend a call. When the reality of our situation hit me, my friend Jack Daniels made the whole situation much easier to handle. All joking aside, this is something I've struggled with considerably. Personally, the Conversations with God series of books has helped give me some peace of mind and put the whole situation in perspective. One last question, as things get worse and worse, do you think society will finally make good on Shakespeare's admonition to "kill all the lawyers?" Uh-oh . . .
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