The Big Picture

At this juncture it is self-defeating to look for too many nuances in the market. Just as traders often make the mistake of over-trading, one can also err by over-analyzing short-term price movements, if such analysis detracts attention from the big picture.

Richard Russell typifies a rare breed of investment strategist who is successful by always focusing on the big picture and the long-term trend. Discern the primary trend, he says, get in position, then just stay there. Russell says staying invested in a bull market, or staying uninvested in a bear market, is the hardest move for most investors. And many fail - they just can't resist tinkering with the portfolio composition - over, and over, and over - to their own detriment.

For precious metals, we are CLEARLY in the early stages of a huge once-in-a-lifetime (or once in many generations) bull market. Sure, there will be little pullbacks and side-jogs as some of the wise guys attempt tactics of early profit-taking, maximizing gains by buying and selling the little roller-coaster moves and whipsaws, etc. But for the average investor, even we better-than-average very-well-educated investors, as Russell often cautions, such activity is seldom profitable.

When I listen to some of those who analyze the market and what they will do next, I wonder wonder where you have been? Have you been reading the same things I've been reading? or even, Is this even the same market we're watching together? Are you from the same planet?

The bullish factors for gold are too numerous to reinterate here. I just want to highlight one that seems particularly important to me at this time.

We have numerous indicators from the U.S. monetary authorities (the Fed) now finally confirming the analysis we've been reading for several years from the likes of Gary North, Bill Bonner, Bill Buckler, Bill Murphy, Richard Russell, John Mauldin, and so forth:

- That the U.S. dollar's status as the world's favored, reserve currency is going to end shortly.

- That thereafter, dollars will be repatriated and the dollar will rapidly lose value against other currencies and assets.

- That the world will need a new monetary system to replace the failed fiat dollar system, and that new system will feature GOLD in some prominent role.

The shocking departures of Lindsay and O'Neill sealed that for me, followed by the stunning and illuminating new statements from Fed Governor Bernancke and Fed Chairman Greenspan. And the announcement of a new U.S. paper currency to be introduced in 2003.

The whole fiat dollar system was an orchestrated, multi-generational effort to suck intrinsic wealth from all over the globe into the hands of a small cadre of the world's the financial elite, who did NOTHING WHATSOEVER to earn it. (Perhaps that's what the symbolic picture of the pyramid on the back of the dollar bill really signifies.) That's right. They took your deposits, and loaned 10x as much out to other people, charging interest and keeping it for themselves. The interest charged FAR EXCEEDED the risk they incurred, since they did nothing to add value in the transaction. Then they multiplied this over and over for so many generations that hardly anyone doubts that banking usury is a normal part of the natural order, rather than the crime against humanity and usurpation of individual freedom that it is. The ending of the fiat money system was built and engineered into that system from the beginning. If you don't believe that, read The Creature from Jekyll Island. The elitists knew full well that at some future date, they would switch their strategy from selling gold short to acquiring and stockpiling vast gold wealth on the long side.

Well that time is now. The transition cannot be instantaneous, as there are many different economic actors on the stage and many time-lags built into the system, but it has unequivocally begun. The new trend is inexorable, and like a two-stroke engine will not reverse until all of the value has been sucked out of the new regime, i.e. the bulk of the world's wealth is in the hands of the elitists.

Sounds bad? Yes, it's dreadful, but we have the power to stop it. So it would be even more monstrous to have that power but be too blind, selfish, arrogant or greedy to act. If one understands this, taking action to against it, by buying and holding precious metals and precious metal shares, is a moral imperative. That is why Jim Sinclair's suggestion -- that every investor who is able buy, and then take delivery of, a gold futures contract -- is so important and timely. For us smaller investors, holding physical metal in any form -- e.g. bullion coins -- and shares of gold and silver mining companies is an equivalent step.

The world as we know it is crumbling down around us, as surely as we live and breathe. Only it's happening in slow motion, so slow that the average person doesn't really detect a change. Only those like us who are constantly monitoring sensitive indicators and discerning relationships between disparate news items are in a position to understand what's happening.

I'd be bitterly disappointed if any Cafe members and others privy to Midas's wonderful commentaries nevertheless places so much weight upon his or her own short-sighted analysis of short-term factors and idiosyncratic indicators that they fail to act upon the big picture, and misses out. With some of the very best information and analysis available anywhere, I do not understand how any of us could possibly talk about "short-term tops" or selling covered calls or buying puts or taking profits on any precious-metal-related asset at this time.

Consider the pathetic fellow who buys a ticket to ride to the observation deck on top of the Empire State Building and view the whole city from 100 stories up. He steps aboard the elevator, and WHOOSH! up it goes! Then the door opens at floor 3 and a few people get in. The man disembarks on the 3rd floor and rushes to the window to look out. "Wow, great view from up here!" Meanwhile the elevator doors close and it continues up to the 100th floor, without him.

We have a chance to be completely IN POSITION for the move of a lifetime. Moreover, to survive, and for our loved ones to survive during the unbelievable crises lying ahead, each of us must look inside his/her heart and decide what we personally are going to do and where we stand in the epic struggle against false money that benefits the elite few by robbing the multitude of individuals who produce intrinsic wealth through their own personal labor.

Gold and silver assets are no man's liability. They are intrinsic wealth. They do not feed the vicious spiral that attempts to funnel all the world's intrinsic wealth into the hands of a few elite bankers. These metals alone will stand when other assets fall. They alone will survive the transition to a new financial system after the demise of the fiat dollar.

If you are one of those folks who is tempted to constantly trade your position, to look for short-term peaks and valleys in this magnificent unmistakable uptrend, to find excuses why you alone are exempt from the big picture, or to give credence to the whores of Wall Street who are paid to deceive you, then I plead with you one final time to get in position and stay there! Buy and hold precious metals and PM shares, and hold on for the ride of a lifetime. This is no time to be cute or a wise guy. It's time to rediscover your own personal rock-bottom principles, and the integrity and conviction to let them guide you.

God bless us all.

Marcia Stockton
January 7, 2003
marcia27@softhome.net