The
Big Picture
At
this juncture it is self-defeating to look for too many nuances in the market.
Just as traders often make the mistake of over-trading, one can also err by
over-analyzing short-term price movements, if such analysis detracts attention
from the big picture.
Richard
Russell typifies a rare breed of investment strategist who is successful by
always focusing on the big picture and the long-term trend. Discern the primary
trend, he says, get in position, then just stay there. Russell says staying
invested in a bull market, or staying uninvested in a bear market, is the hardest
move for most investors. And many fail - they just can't resist tinkering with
the portfolio composition - over, and over, and over - to their own detriment.
For
precious metals, we are CLEARLY in the early stages of a huge once-in-a-lifetime
(or once in many generations) bull market. Sure, there will be little pullbacks
and side-jogs as some of the wise guys attempt tactics of early profit-taking,
maximizing gains by buying and selling the little roller-coaster moves and whipsaws,
etc. But for the average investor, even we better-than-average very-well-educated
investors, as Russell often cautions, such activity is seldom profitable.
When
I listen to some of those who analyze the market and what they will do next,
I wonder wonder where you have been? Have you been reading the same things I've
been reading? or even, Is this even the same market we're watching together?
Are you from the same planet?
The
bullish factors for gold are too numerous to reinterate here. I just want to
highlight one that seems particularly important to me at this time.
We
have numerous indicators from the U.S. monetary authorities (the Fed) now finally
confirming the analysis we've been reading for several years from the likes
of Gary North, Bill Bonner, Bill Buckler, Bill Murphy, Richard Russell, John
Mauldin, and so forth:
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That the U.S. dollar's status as the world's favored, reserve currency is going
to end shortly.
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That thereafter, dollars will be repatriated and the dollar will rapidly lose
value against other currencies and assets.
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That the world will need a new monetary system to replace the failed fiat dollar
system, and that new system will feature GOLD in some prominent role.
The
shocking departures of Lindsay and O'Neill sealed that for me, followed by the
stunning and illuminating new statements from Fed Governor Bernancke and Fed
Chairman Greenspan. And the announcement of a new U.S. paper currency to be
introduced in 2003.
The
whole fiat dollar system was an orchestrated, multi-generational effort to suck
intrinsic wealth from all over the globe into the hands of a small cadre of
the world's the financial elite, who did NOTHING WHATSOEVER to earn it. (Perhaps
that's what the symbolic picture of the pyramid on the back of the dollar bill
really signifies.) That's right. They took your deposits, and loaned 10x as
much out to other people, charging interest and keeping it for themselves. The
interest charged FAR EXCEEDED the risk they incurred, since they did nothing
to add value in the transaction. Then they multiplied this over and over for
so many generations that hardly anyone doubts that banking usury is a normal
part of the natural order, rather than the crime against humanity and usurpation
of individual freedom that it is. The ending of the fiat money system was built
and engineered into that system from the beginning. If you don't believe that,
read The Creature from Jekyll Island. The elitists knew full well that at some
future date, they would switch their strategy from selling gold short to acquiring
and stockpiling vast gold wealth on the long side.
Well
that time is now. The transition cannot be instantaneous, as there are many
different economic actors on the stage and many time-lags built into the system,
but it has unequivocally begun. The new trend is inexorable, and like a two-stroke
engine will not reverse until all of the value has been sucked out of the new
regime, i.e. the bulk of the world's wealth is in the hands of the elitists.
Sounds
bad? Yes, it's dreadful, but we have the power to stop it. So it would be even
more monstrous to have that power but be too blind, selfish, arrogant or greedy
to act. If one understands this, taking action to against it, by buying and
holding precious metals and precious metal shares, is a moral imperative. That
is why Jim Sinclair's suggestion -- that every investor who is able buy, and
then take delivery of, a gold futures contract -- is so important and timely.
For us smaller investors, holding physical metal in any form -- e.g. bullion
coins -- and shares of gold and silver mining companies is an equivalent step.
The
world as we know it is crumbling down around us, as surely as we live and breathe.
Only it's happening in slow motion, so slow that the average person doesn't
really detect a change. Only those like us who are constantly monitoring sensitive
indicators and discerning relationships between disparate news items are in
a position to understand what's happening.
I'd
be bitterly disappointed if any Cafe members and others privy to Midas's wonderful
commentaries nevertheless places so much weight upon his or her own short-sighted
analysis of short-term factors and idiosyncratic indicators that they fail to
act upon the big picture, and misses out. With some of the very best information
and analysis available anywhere, I do not understand how any of us could possibly
talk about "short-term tops" or selling covered calls or buying puts
or taking profits on any precious-metal-related asset at this time.
Consider
the pathetic fellow who buys a ticket to ride to the observation deck on top
of the Empire State Building and view the whole city from 100 stories up. He
steps aboard the elevator, and WHOOSH! up it goes! Then the door opens at floor
3 and a few people get in. The man disembarks on the 3rd floor and rushes to
the window to look out. "Wow, great view from up here!" Meanwhile
the elevator doors close and it continues up to the 100th floor, without him.
We
have a chance to be completely IN POSITION for the move of a lifetime. Moreover,
to survive, and for our loved ones to survive during the unbelievable crises
lying ahead, each of us must look inside his/her heart and decide what we personally
are going to do and where we stand in the epic struggle against false money
that benefits the elite few by robbing the multitude of individuals who produce
intrinsic wealth through their own personal labor.
Gold
and silver assets are no man's liability. They are intrinsic wealth. They do
not feed the vicious spiral that attempts to funnel all the world's intrinsic
wealth into the hands of a few elite bankers. These metals alone will stand
when other assets fall. They alone will survive the transition to a new financial
system after the demise of the fiat dollar.
If
you are one of those folks who is tempted to constantly trade your position,
to look for short-term peaks and valleys in this magnificent unmistakable uptrend,
to find excuses why you alone are exempt from the big picture, or to give credence
to the whores of Wall Street who are paid to deceive you, then I plead with
you one final time to get in position and stay there! Buy and hold precious
metals and PM shares, and hold on for the ride of a lifetime. This is no time
to be cute or a wise guy. It's time to rediscover your own personal rock-bottom
principles, and the integrity and conviction to let them guide you.
God
bless us all.
Marcia
Stockton
January 7, 2003
marcia27@softhome.net