Devastating Hurricane More Likely; US East Coast Most at Risk
EnergyTechStocks

The odds of a devastating hurricane hitting the United States this summer are higher than they have been in the last few years, with the Florida east coast and North Carolina probably more at risk than the Gulf of Mexico, AccuWeather Inc.'s chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi told EnergyTechStocks.com.

Emphasizing that it's still early, Bastardi said in an interview that he wouldn't be surprised if three or four hurricanes hit the U.S. this coming summer (out of 11 or 12 total storms), with one storm a Category 3 or higher. (Category 5 is the highest and most devastating.) He said that, based on historical patterns, hurricane intensity seems to peak every three and a half to four years, and that the U.S. "is heading toward a relative maximum" in terms of storm intensity, although 2008 probably won't be the peak.

For energy investors, the relatively good news in Bastardi's preliminary forecast is that he sees the U.S. East Coast more likely to bear the brunt of a Category 3 or higher storm than the oil- and natural gas-producing areas of the Gulf, which are concentrated off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Still, Bastardi cautioned that Gulf storms tend to be more random in nature and thus more difficult to forecast.

The bad news for energy and all other investors is that, should an intense storm hit anywhere along the now highly-populated U.S. Southeast coast, the onshore damage, including to energy pipelines and other installations, could be huge.