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Superb Opportunities Created by 3 False Premises 
“In one of the most shamefully disingenuous reports we’ve seen in years, the US Labor Department released the latest employment figures on Friday showing that the headline US unemployment rate had fallen to 8.3%. “Champagne and sound bites were pre-positioned in Washington as the self-congratulatory praise flowed like the bubbly. President Obama, beaming like he’d just caught the winning touchdown pass, told the American people on Sunday that he ‘deserved’ a second term. They call it the headline unemployment rate for a reason… it’s the only number that the papers tend to run. All weekend long, mainstream press ran headlines like:
Needless to say, few outlets with any meaningful reach covered the real story behind the employment figures—the Labor Department simply took 1.2 million Americans out of the labor force. In other words, the unemployment rate fell because the Labor Department deliberately did not count 1.2 million unemployed people…. It’s the same Orwellian style logic (WAR IS PEACE. DEBT IS WEALTH.) that prevailed during the Soviet Union—outright lies and deceitful reports painting a rosy picture of the economy and its glorious leaders, masking a dismal reality. It’s nothing but propaganda in the worst form. This has been going on for years in the United States, as evidenced by the chart below: sovereignman.com, Simon Black, 02/06/12 Indeed, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment Data is Bogus, as Deepcaster and John Williams of shadowstats.com (see below) and others have been pointing out for years. Real U.S. Unemployment is 22.5%. And not just Employment Data, but also Inflation Data are Bogus. Real U.S. Inflation is 10.57% per shadowstats.com. Even the Chinese just acknowledged (via their tightly controlled and politicized Official Data Source, the National Bureau of Statistics) that inflation had risen significantly. But the Key Take-Away for Investors and Traders is that the recent Ostensibly improved Job and Inflation figures are False Premises on which the Markets rallied. And this provides Superb Opportunities to bet against the False Premises as we later indicate. Indeed, Shrewd Trader and Political Interventionist, George Soros, recommends
First, however, it is important to understand why and how the Unemployment Numbers are Bogus. “January Jobs Reading Still at Levels of 11 Years Ago January Unemployment: 22.5% (SGS) Money Supply M3 Growth Is Picking Up
Moreover, Trader Dan Norcini’s Astute Commentary on the Bogus Payroll numbers Reveals another Official Premise (recently expressed by Chairman Bernanke himself) that should be “Bet Against” Consider Norcini’s comment: “Today's payrolls number, something which I might add is more akin to an Alice in Wonderland creation, was the factor responsible for the selling in both gold and in silver. The thinking was that if the economy is gathering steam at such a fast clip as the numbers suggest, then any notion of additional QE3 is a pipe dream. That means no Dollar debasement and little to fear on the inflation front so out came the sellers in the gold market. It also did not help the bullish cause that the market failed at a critical technical resistance level. Savvy Trader Dan Norcini makes a critically important point. Because last Friday’s Payroll Numbers were perceived to be improving, coupled with Official Assurances that Inflation was contained, Safe Haven Gold sold off (with help from The Cartel [Note 1 below]) the U.S.$ stopped sliding and even strengthened a bit, and Equities shot up. Only problem was that the Payroll Numbers were “Alice in Wonderland” as Norcini says. But the fact that Gold sold off and the U.S. Dollar stopped sliding showed the markets believed the (False) Premise that Inflation was controlled. And John Williams of Shadowstats.com has told us why and how, and what the Real Numbers are (Real U.S. C.P.I. at 10.57% is threshold Hyperinflationary). In sum, there are clearly two False Premises distributed by several Main Stream Media:
But, The Realities are that we are moving into an ever more stagnant economy with increasing Monetary, and thus already existing (U.S.CPI 10.57%) and increasing, Price Inflation, as we have already seen in Food and Energy costs and even Officially controlled Chinese Inflation figures. Deepcaster has recently made several recommendations which have generated profit (Note 2 below) and which are designed to Profit from (see our March Letter) the Impending Hyperstagflation. But it is important to consider the opportunity latent in a Third False Premise as exposed by Professor Simon Johnson comments on Bloomberg Financial.
Over the mid and long term that Euro strength is unsustainable for the whole host of reasons including not only the ultimate de facto default of Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, but also probably eventually the default of Italy and Spain, and perhaps even France. Third False Premise: that the Eurozone as it presently exists, can and should be saved. Indeed, the impending disintegration of the Eurozone, though most painful for the citizenry in the short and medium term is, on balance, in their best interest in the long run. Being beholden to Mega-Banks and Unelected Globalist Bureaucrats results in a loss of political and economic freedom, as well as National Sovereignty. Moreover, with all the juicing and goosing and bailing out, The Fed and ECB has provided the Markets, and promised to continue, the current Equities Rally could last for a while more. But such a Rally goosed nearly solely by Excess money and credit provided by The Fed and Eurozone (as opposed to Savings and Investment which creates Real lasting wealth), will only exacerbate The Great Equities Crash when it surely arrives. And the Developing Jaws of Death Technical Pattern emphasizes this Prospect. Meanwhile, Food and Energy Costs will soar more, further financially disabling consumers, which are 70% of the U.S. Economy and a similar % of other Major Economies. According to the U.S. DOE U.S. gasoline Demand is at a 10yr low, but Gas Prices are near record High (and Food prices still skyrocketing with Corn up 10% and Wheat 12% in just the last three weeks). Thanks Ben Bernanke! This fact of continuing high (and increasing) energy and food prices underscores the Extraordinary Reckless Policy Error of both The Fed and ECB which create too much money and credit (in their attempt to save their owners, The Mega-Bankers), and the Obama Administration which continues to Increase the U.S. National Debt to over $15 Trillion (from $10 Trillion when he was elected) plus downstream unfunded liabilities of over $100 Trillion for Social Security, Medicare, etc.. All of these feckless policies will, of course, generate Hyperstagflation down the road for which we will all pay (and are already paying) a very high price in Destroyed Savings and Wealth in General. But Short-term, the just-announced Cosmetic Disguise of the existing Greek Default will likely keep the Euro pumped up for a while. And the focus on the Eurozone’s Debt Saturation Crisis temporarily deflects attention from the U.S.A.’s larger and unsolvable Debt Crisis. Thus, in the long run, those two Debt Crises will doom both Fiat Currencies, the Euro and the US$, vis a vis Real Assets. Thus, given the foregoing and in light of the False Premises, now is an Excellent time to Acquire Real Assets – Gold, Silver and Agricultural Products, on the cheap. Best regards, Deepcaster February 9, 2012 Note 1: *We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. Note 2: There are Magnificent Opportunities in the Ongoing Crises of Debt Saturation, Rising Unemployment, negative Real GDP growth, nearly 11% Real U.S. Inflation (per Shadowstats.com) and prospective Sovereign and other Defaults. |
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