Johnny Pic
bear tracks

Don't be afraid to take a big step;
you can't cross a chasm in two hops.

11.08.04

 

As the editor of the Silver Bear Cafe, I spend most of my time researching current events. I explore the markets, the war, precious metals, the Federal Reserve and energy. In this weekly column I will attempt to condense the week's events and examine how the news might affect your pocketbook. JSB

Financial Markets

The dollar is tanking. It has lost 36% of its value in the last four years. Understandably, Russia, India and China are getting rid of their dollar assets. Who can blame them? This dumping of dollars will only exacerbate the decline.

Today the Dow is sitting at about 10350. If you consider that all these equities are valued in dollars, and that dollars have lost 36% of their value in the last four years, then you can reasonably figure that, in four year ago dollars, the Dow would only be at 6624. If the DOW was at 6624, (which compared to 2000 dollars without inflation, it is), investors would be in a panic. Instead, the volatility index, (^VIX) is sitting at historic lows. Nobody seems to be concerned. Hey! Go with the flow. Be a sheeple. Don't worry, be happy.

Over the next two years market forces will become unmanagable and the resulting retraction will bring the whole world to its knees.

Europe already seems to be vacilating towards Russia and the Euro will most likely prevail.

Prepare yourself. Get out of dollar denominated assets.

On the war front

The United States has greatly over extended its resources in an effort to control access to the world's remaining oil reserves. As the competition heats up, expect to see increased Chinese military presence in the Middle East.

American troops along with North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops remain in Afghanistan after overthrowing the evil Taliban. They are there to maintain a competetive edge in a quest to, at least partially, control the delivery of Caspian Sea oil to western interests. Western multinational oil corporations have been attempting to build gas and oil pipelines from the Caspian region since long before the Russian/Afgan war.

That war was prompted by the same motive, with Russian oil interests as the promptors and the Russian military as the aggressor. Russia was unable to secure the region, for the most part, as a result of the backing provided the Taliban by the American Government. Oh what a tangled web we weave. Now Iran has become extremely nervous, having been sanwiched by U.S. troops, and has joined with Russia and China to form the main opposition to the West's apparent goals. All three of these countries have supported America's enemies over the last three years with either military or financial assistance. While Iran and Russia have long supplied America's enemies with weapons, the fact that China has joined in the fray marks a troubling and undenialble "line drawn in the sand".

The Caspian Sea region is of paramount importance to the survival and well being of both side's considering their insatiable thirst for oil. Keep a close eye on the chess game that is currently being played by the West against the East. It is a game for most of the marbles.

Precious Metals

You have heard me say it before, but I am compelled to say it again. Silver is going to the moon! If there is one single thing you can do to protect yourself, your family and your future, and, at the same time, help free the country from the shackles of the central bankers, it is to buy physical silver bullion.

I believe that silver should be at least 200 times as valuable as its current pricing suggests, ($7.35 X 200 = $1470.00 per ounce.) Does that mean that its going there right away? Not necessarily. Is it possible that it may get mugged as a result of tech fund liquidation? Of course. But, for all intents and purposes, silver is currently providing the world with one of the best investment opportunities in the last 100 years.

Buy physical first. Then, when you have attained a comfort level with the amount of physical bullion you personally possess, you might consider investing in silver mining stocks.

There are many mining concerns that deserve your consideration if you are allocating a portion of your portfolio into this sector.This week I would like to bring your attention to four. These four silver mining companies are well funded, well managed, and. IMO, undervalued. I feel they each provide a huge amount of upside potential with comparably small downside risk. IMA Exploration, Sterling Mining, Endeavor Silver, and Kenrich-Eskay.

IMA Exploration is sitting on about 400 million ounces. They have a market cap of about $138 million. Their silver is high grade, and easily accessible. The stock price has gone up from about $1.50 to $3.85 in the last year. I believe, conservatively, that an investment now might well reap a 300 - 400% profit in the next two years.

IMA Exploration
http://www.imaexploration.com/s/Home.asp

Sterling Mining Company, together with its silver assets in Mexico, controls the legendary Sunshine Mine, the richest silver mine in American history with more than 360 million ounces of production over the past century. Sterling offers investor’s superior leverage to silver price increases through its extensive portfolio of “ Silver Valley” landholdings and through strategic alliances and equity stakes in neighboring companies. Sterling stock trades on the OTC Market Exchange under the symbol “SRLM””. It is currently trading at $5.63 and has traded as high as $13.20 in the last year.

Sterling Mining has the potential for profitable production at $4.55 per ounce of silver or less, and a resource potential in excess of 50,000,000 ounces. The company is currently focused on four major projects, the Sunshine Mine located in Idaho, the JE Project located in Montana, the Baroness Silver Tailings Project in Mexico and a regional scale acquisition and exploration program in Idaho’s Silver Valley.

Sterling Mining
http://www.sterlingmining.com/

Endeavour Silver is almost a no-brainer. Typically, mines that are already producing have a higher share price, because the discovery has already been made and exploitation is in progress. Well, Endeavour Silver is already a producer, and they expect to produce 4 million ounces of silver within the next 2 years. Yet, their market cap is not half that of CDE, which produces 9 million ounces of silver per year, but rather, the market cap of Endeavour Silver is a tiny $26 million! (25.7 million shares fully diluted (May 28th, 2004))

Endeavour Silver
http://www.edrgold.com/

Kenrich-Eskay is an exploration play. One of the top 5 silver mines in the world is the Eskay Creek silver mine currently operated by Barrick, formerly owned by Homestake, which was acquired by Barrick. Kenrich-Eskay's property is 10 km south of Eskay Creek. Kenrich-Eskay is discovering Eskay type mineralization in the Eskay Camp. One grab sample from the C10 Zone contained 23,726 g/t silver. That's 741 oz./ton! See press release Oct. 6th. Kenrich-Eskay's market cap is about $12 million dollars. (29.2 million shares fully diluted (July, 2004)) Homestake was willing to pay up to about $50 million for Kenrich-Eskay back in 1996.

Kenrich Eskay
http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/
See their news releases here:
http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/index.php?site=8&page=106

Energy

China was a net exporter of oil until about ten years ago. Today, China is the world's number three consumer of oil behind the United States and Japan. China will soon overtake both the U.S. and Japan as the World's largest importer of oil.

All industrialized nations, around the world are scrambling to form strategic alliances with any and all energy producing countries

Buy non dollar denominated energy stocks.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve will meet again on Thursday and raise interest rates a quarter point. This is too little too late, of epic proportions, IMO.

"Bubbles" Greenspan recently stated that "labor-market conditions have improved." If you listen closely to what Greenspan defines as the topic, you can easily identify the problem area. "Labor-market conditions" are the problem. After you identify what he's talking about, you need not waste your time trying to decipher his explanation. Everything else he says will be hooey. This is evidenced in another of his recent statements. "Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained." "Hooey!", is my response. At least two of the Fed Governors have publicly stated that they will continue to devalue the dollar with a vengeance. In this case "inflation and longer-term inflation" are the problem. Neither are going away anytime soon.

Financial Survival

Every year there is less and less water and more people are dying because of the lack of water. 75% of the world is composed of water and out of that only 5% is pure water, 2% icebergs, which leaves 3% out of this 3% we have no access to 2% and out of the 2% left over 1.7% goes to irrigation which leaves only 0.03% for drinking.

Get some control over some fresh water.

If you are depending on Social Security, stop.

Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost always do well...

ostritchIts not what you don't know that will screw you up, it's what you know that is wrong. The spin you hear from the mainstream media is intended to mislead you. Open your eyes and face the future. If you leave your head in the sand and ignore it, you are only leaving your butt exposed for the world to kick. This all may sound like gloom and doom, but when you get a handle on what is going to happen, you will have a future filled with opportunity. Fortune favors the Informed.

More next week...

If you have not yet joined "the Bear" and/or have questions, please call us, toll-free, at:

1 (877) 389-7626

May the Great Spirit be with you always,

johnny signature

Johnny Silver Bear
Chief cook and bottle washer, The Silver Bear Cafe

P.S. Refer two new members to the Silver Bear Cafe web site and earn twenty, (20), one troy ounce silver rounds. For more information on the Silver Bear Cafe's income opportunity, click here

Disclaimer

All statements and expressions are the sole opinions of the editor and are subject to change without notice. A profile, description, or other mention of a company in the newsletter is neither an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. While we believe all sources of information to be factual and reliable, in no way do we represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof, nor the statements made herein. The staff of Silver Bear Cafe are not registered investment advisors and do not purport to offer personalized investment related advice. The publisher, editor, staff, or anyone associated with, or associated to the Silver Bear Cafe may own securities mentioned in this newsletter and may buy or sell securities without notice.

Back to Top

Financial Markets
War
Precious Metals
The Federal Reserve
Energy
Survival